Tag Archives: Jason Witten

Week 5 Waiver Watch: Thing 1 and Thing 2

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I am a dog person. I love the way they are happy to see you when you get home despite the fact that you left them alone all day. I love that they go from sleeping lazily on the couch to hyper-play mode in 1.3 seconds at the site of a ball. I love that they always seem to occupy a much larger portion of the bed when you wake up in the morning than they did when you fell asleep last night. I love dogs because of their unyielding loyalty and need to carve out a role in the pack that is your family.  In short, I love dogs because of their strong sense of self: they know what they are, and they know what they aren’t.

However, this general rule does have it’s exceptions.  On some occasions I will take my dog (3-year-old Australian Shepherd) to the “dog park”.  For those of you that are cat people (communists), this is a gathering place for K9s and owners alike.  It is basically a cluster-bomb of crazy dogs, prissy dogs, horny dogs, playful dogs and mean dogs.  It’s a lot like college in that way.  The exception to my dog loving rule comes in the form of the prissy dog.  These overgrown rats with the bulging eyes, twig-like legs and quivering disposition seem to have problems identifying their natural place in the pecking order.  These are the animals which nature is trying it’s best to “select” for removal from the face of the Earth but we humans, we love our genetic mutants.

On several occasions one of these yappers has managed to free themselves from their Frankensteinian owners and has run up to my pup in what can only be described as an attempt to pick a fight.  They will bark at her, growl at her and even try nipping at her in what is a clear fit of envious genetic rage.  Me being a scientific observer, I generally let the drama play out to it’s predictable conclusion before intervening.  Typically my pup will entertain their vocal protests but when that first attempted nip takes place she will take the instigating creature between her jaws and either pin them firmly to the ground or rag-doll them like her favorite chew toy.  She never hurts more than their pride but I can’t help but thinking as I look down at the pint-sized pooch now lathered in my dog’s drool, “what the hell did you think was going to happen?”

That’s why when I heard that NFL wide receiver Braylon Edwards had thrown a punch at LeBron James’ 130-pound buddy outside of a Cleveland night club, my reaction was quite similar … “what the hell did you think was going to happen?”  I have crossed paths with enough prissy dogs and 130-pound yappers in my time to know exactly where Edwards was coming from when he decided enough was enough.  The fact that the featherweight filed a complaint which now looks like it was a false accusation lends further support to my yap-dog theory.  Whatever the case, I applaud Braylon for his willingness to let nature take it’s course and congratulate him on his recent escape from the fantasy hell that is Cleveland, Ohio.  I give you my week 5 waiver tips … because we are all Witnesses.

Thing 1: This WR has totalled 11 catches for 214 yards and 1 TD so far in 2009.  He has disappointed early in the year and now may miss a game or two with an injury.  He is currently owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This WR has totalled 17 catches for 271 yards and 0 TDs so far in 2009.  He has come on strong and may be the new favorite target for his respective team.  He is currently owned in 9% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Roy Williams and Thing 2 is Kenny Britt.  I gave Britt’s teammate Justin Gage some love in an earlier column but the rookie out of Rutgers may have overtaken his fellow wideout for targets.  At 6’3″ and 218 lbs. Britt has the ideal frame of a red zone target despite his lack of scores so far this season.  Nate Washington will make the occasional big play and Gage is still in the mix, but going forward I like Britt a lot if you are looking for consistent weekly production with considerable upside as well.

Thing 1: This TE is off to a slow start this season but has still caught 23 passes for 212 yards and 1 TD.  He is one of the most reliable receiving targets on his team and is currently owned in 100% of ESPN leagues

Thing 2: This TE is off to a nice start this season and has caught 24 passes for 181 yards and 2 TDs.  He is also one of the most reliable receiving targets on his team but is owned in just 18% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Jason Witten and Thing 2 is Heath Miller.  Miller probably won’t be near Witten in terms of yardage or receptions at season’s end, but he is one of Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite red zone targets and he may be able to haul in 7-8 TDs before all is said and done.  Miller has some of the softest hands in the league and his ability to block means he stays on the field for the majority of Pittsburgh’s plays.  I like for him to finish as a top-10 fantasy TE and he can be had in many leagues for the price of a waiver claim.

Thing 1:  This QB has completed 59.6% of his passes for a bad team.  His sample size is still relatively small but for the most part you know what you are getting here.  He is owned in 83% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2:  This QB has completed 53.1% of his passes for a bad team.  He recently took over the reigns of this offense and the jury is still out on him.  He is owned in 1% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check:  Thing 1 is Matt Cassel and Thing 2 is Josh Johnson.  Hear me out on this one.  Presumably you are not starting either of these guys on a regular basis but I am intrigued by Johnson’s upside and in my opinion he has better playmakers around him on offense.  In addition to being a very intelligent passer (among the highest ratings in the country while at USD), Johnson has tremendous athletic ability and can make plays with his legs when the pocket breaks down.  Top pick Josh Freeman is not ready so Johnson will get some leash to play with and has some nice matchups coming up if you are in need of a bye week fill-in.

Thing 1:  This RB has totalled 198 total yards and 1 TD on 54 touches (3.7 ypt).  He is banged up and could miss several weeks before returning to action.  Currently he is owned in 99% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This RB has totalled 249 yards and 2 TDs on 39 touches (6.4 ypt).  He has taken the lead role while his injury-prone backfield mate is nursing an injury.  Currently he is owned in 37% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Darren McFadden and Thing 2 is Rashard Mendenhall.  Boy does it look like I was wrong on Mendenhall.  Most of his production in the NFL has come in one shining week but for the first time I saw the strong running and determination to hit the hole that made him a #1 pick out of Illinois.  I doubt he will sustain this level of production (especially when Willie Parker returns to share the load), but tasty matchups against the Lions and Browns in the next two weeks mean that Mendenhall should not be available in leagues of any size.  Go get him and enjoy the ride.

Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football

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Hello all. For the last couple years I’ve posted a weekly fantasy football article with the title, theRUNDOWN – well after much thought and consideration, I’ve decided to ax theRUNDOWN and change the way I do things a little bit to make it easier for you. The new plan is that I’ll have a weekly article that highlights many important areas of the upcoming week. I’ll give you 4 different categories outlining fantasy startability every single week. We’ll have Elite Starters, Solid Starters, and Sleepers Starters – basically giving a list of 5 guys in each talent level with solid match-ups. I will also post a Sit ‘Em Son section for regular starters I’d steer clear from. That’s 20 guys rated out by me. Finally, I’ll get all the writers from my site, Josh Arsenault, Ryan Kauffman, Papa Weimer, and myself; to rank our top five players for the week at each position. With all things fantasy getting covered, I’m calling this section the Fantasy Focus. And focused it will be. Every new article will come with a small review of last week’s advice (except for this one because, well, there was no fantasy last week – it’s all just beginning). We hold ourselves accountable here. If we treat you well, we brag and gloat like Muhammad Ali, and if we dog it we own it. Here’s Week 1’s Fantasy Focus.

Elite Starters: Guys picked really early that I love this week…

1. DeAngelo Williams – I think DeLo will get 25 touches this week, he’ll kill that bad run defense from Philly
2. Tom Brady – He’s finding Wes Welker and # 4 all day long.
3. Larry Fitzgerald – Boldin might have a small hamstring issue, that means more looks for Larry.
4. Randy Moss – These guys will go hand in hand, Randy and Tom, Buffalo is in for some hurt.
5. Brian Westbrook – He may be a little risky, but that defensive line from Carolina doesn’t stop the run.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eddie Royal – I think Eddie will grab 10+ balls this week.
2. Reggie Bush – Against the Lions, those who stole Reggie late should smile on Sunday.
3. Ray Rice – You betcha, Ray Ray, come on down and start off your season against the Chiefs… Lucky!
4. Joseph Addai – I think Addai gets 20 carries and does a lot with them against the Jags suspect run D.
5. Matt Hasselbeck – Get ready for Matt to torch the Rams secondary, he’s back and more accurate than ever.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Donnie Avery – will be starting, if you are throwing a guy into the fray, why not a guy against that secondary?
2. Julius Jones – I picked this guy in two leagues after the 11th round, he’ll be a top 20 back this week.
3. Tim Hightower – One of the lowest drafted starting backs in the league, Tim approaches 100 yards this week.
4. Mark Sanchez – I like Mark this week in his opener. He’s going up against a bad defense, check it down to Leon!!!
5. Nate Burleson – ESPN projects 2 points for Nasty Nate – yeah, right – good play this week.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Carson Palmer – I’m not crazy about Palmer this week. I think they run the ball a lot against Denver.
2. Clinton Portis – I know he’s at his best early in the season, but this defensive front is as good as it gets.
3. Willie Parker – Willie got no love, then he got too much, even without Albert the Titans stop Parker.
4. Devin Hester – He may be a speed mis-match for Packers secondary, but those corners are too strong for Hester.
5. Hines Ward – I think Ward struggles in the opener, just a few catches, less than 50 yards.

PS – Don’t be the guy that starts Marshawn Lynch….

Week 1 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning	1.Tom Brady		1.Drew Brees		1.Tom Brady
2.Drew Brees		2.Drew Brees		2.Peyton Manning	2.Drew Brees
3.Tom Brady		3.Matt Ryan		3.Chad Pennington	3.Peyton Manning
4.Jay Cutler		4.Aaron Rodgers		4.Donovan McNabb	4.Aaron Rodgers
5.Phillip Rivers	5.Peyton Manning	5.Kyle Orton 		5.Matt Schaub

RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Michael Turner	1.DeAngelo Williams
2.DeAngelo Williams	2.DeAngelo Williams	2.Adrian Peterson	2.Brian Westbrook
3.Steven Jackson	3.Matt Forte		3.LaDainian Tomlinson	3.Maurice Jones Drew
4.Ray Rice		4.Reggie Bush		4.Frank Gore		4.Adrian Peterson
5.Willie Parker		5.Knowshon Moreno	5.Ryan Grant		5.Ronnie Brown

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Andre Johnson		1.Calvin Johnson	1.Steve Smith		1.Randy Moss
2.Reggie Wayne		2.Terrell Owens		2.Reggie Wayne		2.Larry Fitzgerald
3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith		3.Marques Colston	3.Reggie Wayne
4.Vincent Jackson	4.Andre Johnson		4.Randy Moss		4.Andre Johnson
5.Calvin Johnson	5.Wes Welker		5.Eddie Royal		5.Greg Jennings

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Antonio Gates		1.Jason Witten		1.Dallas Clark		1.Dallas Clark
2.Jason Witten		2.Antonio Gates		2.Tony Gonzalez		2.Antonio Gates
3.Dallas Clark		3.Dallas Clark		3.Antonio Gates		3.Jason Witten
4.Greg Olsen		4.John Carlson		4.Owen Daniels		4.Zach Miller
5.Dustin Keller		5.Brandon Petitgrew	5.Jason Witten		5.John Carlson

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens		1.Ravens		1.Giants		1.Vikings
2.Steelers		2.Cowboys		2.Ravens		2.Ravens
3.Giants		3.Seahawks		3.Chargers		3.Cowboys
4.Patriots		4.Redskins		4.Saints		4.Giants
5.Bengals		5.Patriots		5.Steelers		5.Bengals

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Your guess is as good as ours. Plus, we don't care enough to write about it.

2009 Tiered Fantasy Rankings: Tight Ends

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TE’s are kind of an afterthought on draft day, I never spend much on them (in terms of auction dollars or high draft picks) but a consistent point scorer at TE is tough to come by. I’ve always figured that if you don’t get a Top 5 guy, one should just wait until the end to take a chance on a kid with high upside. This year seems a little different in my book, as many young pass catching TE’s have nice upside in ’09. Not only that but after the Top 5, there’s plenty of guys that could have big years, and should put up points week in and week out. Not much seperates the 2nd class from themselves, but hopefully my tiers can help you out with the Top 25 TE’s in ’09.

I

  1. Jason Witten (1)
  2. Antonio Gates (2)
  3. Dallas Clark (3)
  4. Tony Gonzalez (4)

This is the top tier, and top it is. The rest of the TE’s aren’t likely to finish in the Top 4, as these guys basically have the spot on lockdown. Witten is my #1 because he’s a TE and a #1 option on his offense without too much taking away touches from him. Think Tony Gonzalez in KC last season, but a better QB for Witten in Dallas. Gates is still a stud despite injuries nagging on his numbers the last couple years. Despite Vincent Jackson’s rise in SD, Gates is still the #1 receiving option, and I expect him to have his best season in the last 3 years. Dallas Clark will be Peyton Manning’s #2 or #3 this season. With Marvin gone, Anthony G and Clark will get a majority of Marvin’s old target, which makes Clark that much more of a solid TE. Tony G might be the best TE of all time, no doubt about it, but he is in a new offense with a lot of talent surrounding him. He’ll do big things in Atlanta, but I don’t think there’s enough balls to get Gonzo as many catches as he had last season. He’s still a top tier guy, but the bottom of that barrell.

II

  1. Chris Cooley (5)
  2. Kellen Winslow (6)

All by themselves in my second tier are Chris Cooley and Kellen Winslow. Cooley never really gets his due, and despite a semi-slow year for the Redskin passing attack in ’08, Cooley should be back in the Top 5 in ’09. Cooley is a big reliable target for Jason Campbell, a quarterback I see taking a big jump in 2009. With much of the focus on Portis and Moss, Cooley will find himself collecting fantasy points like Bengals collect arrests. Kellen Winslow is in a new uniform in ’09 and he’s still one of the most talented TEs out there. Winslow might not have the best QB getting him the ball, but he will have plenty of opportunities to make himself a valueable option for fantasy owners. He’s risky, but the kid is tough and plays through bumps and bruises and low grade muscle tears. I don’t think you’ll regret having Winslow fill your TE spot.

III

  1. Owen Daniels (7)
  2. Zach Miller (8)
  3. Greg Olson (9)
  4. John Carlson (10)

Owen Daniels is the highest returning scorer of this group, and a good argument could be made for him being included in the 2nd tier, but this is my ranking system and I’ll do what I want. Owen sure accumulates the catches, but I think Slaton gets more involved this year, Schaub likes to throw to his receivers, and something in me just sees Owen taking a tiny little step backwards. Still a solid TE option, but not a Top 5 guy. Zach Miller is a stud. JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders look like they are going to be better offensively this season. McFadden is going to play well and the other Raider runners will draw attention too. Russell likes going to Miller, and why not? Sure hands, big body, a QB’s best friend. Greg Olson is shooting up draft boards everywhere because he and Jay Cutler apparently have “chemistry” – ooh that sexy little word. One thing is true, Olson just jacked the starting TE job in Chicago. Another thing, he’s probably got the best hands amongst receivers. Cutler likes it when his guys catch his passes. Not a Top 5 guy in my opinion, but he’s in the Top 10, and his upside is nice. Carlson looks good to me too. I know Jim Mora likes utilizing talented tight ends, and Carlson proved he was one of those in his rookie season where he was the best pass catcher in Seattle. This year he might not lead the team in catches, but he’ll get his fair share, especially if the Hawks offense improves as much as I think they will.

IV

  1. Jeremy Shockey (11)
  2. Visanthe Shiancoe (12)
  3. Tony Scheffler (13)
  4. Anthony Fasano (14)
  5. Dustin Keller (15)
  6. Chase Coffman (16)
  7. Vernon Davis (17)
  8. Brandon Petitgrew (18)
  9. Kevin Boss (19)
  10. Heath Miller (20)
  11. Todd Heap (21)
  12. Bo Scaife (22)
  13. Brent Celek (23)
  14. Jermichael Finley (24)

You’re in a weird league if you need 24 ranked TEs, but if you need more than that I can’t help you. If you think I’m not a fan of TE’s, you’re right on the button. But they are a nessecary evil in most situations, and any of these guys could give you what you need: a big athletic lineman type player that lucks out and catches a touchdown now and then. Right, so Shockey heads my list because he has high upside, a starting job, and he’s real athletic when he catches the ball. He’s in the same tier as unproven TEs that may or may not fizzle out and become nothing because of the whole “when he catches the ball” thing. But he could be great. Shaincoe is very underrated, so I put him here. I think Rosenfels will look for him often. Fasano is solid, will get points and his 15 yard routes are perfect because that’s where Chad Pennington’s arm limits out. Seriously. Dustin Keller has tons of talent and has the most speed on the list, but Kellen Clemmens scares me and the other option is a rookie. Chase Coffman already had more talent than any other TE in Cinci, but now the other guys are injured, and he might walk into TE production right off the bat. Upside. Speaking of upside, draft bust Vernon Davis might finally be a TE worth having now that Martz is gone (where is Martz these days anyway?). But Vernon knows how to disappoint, click clack style. Petitgrew is a young all around solid TE in an offense that will likely see it’s fair share of Matthew Stafford – and he might be the 2nd best receiving option in Detroit. Kevin Boss, he is the TE for the highest paid QB in the NFL – just saying that makes my puke. But Boss doesn’t have sure-fire receiving options on the outside, and he might be the guy that makes up for Burress’s absence. Miller and Heap. Miller won’t ever be grand but Heap might never be fantasy worthy again. Both have their place though, Miller because he manages to catch TDs and is pretty consistent in points, and Heap because he was pro-bowl material for a few years there. Bo Scaife broke onto the scene last year, but I think his production falls a bit as Collins (or Young) become more confident in the receiving options in Tennessee. Brent Celek put up solid numbers in Philadelphia, and now he’s the main guy at TE in that offense. Still, there’s too many talented players on that team for him to acrue too many numbers, right? And last is a back-up, with lots of upside, Finley. Green Bay really likes this kid, but he’s also option #6 or so, just like Celek, but keep an eye out!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 16

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You know the gig, so I’ll get right to the questions and answers… Enjoy… Congrats to those playing this week.

David writes in, “A couple quickies, Browns or 49ers, Keller or Z Miller? I need to pick between those… Thanks!”

That’s a good questions, but I my first instinct is that I’d go with the 49ers and Zach Miller – Miller is just more consistent, and he doesn’t have to rely on Brett throwing good or throwing piss. However, the Seahawks are dead last in the NFL in passing yards given up and only 5 teams have given up more passing touchdowns than they have. Houston’s not much better but they are a little, they are in the middle of the pack as to yards allowed. The Jets love to throw the ball so even thought it’s stupid for them not to give the ball to Thomas Jones, they will likely try to get their yards through the air, even though it is snowy and cold in Seattle this week (believe me, I’m just an hour or so North and it’s snowy and windy here). So after thinking about it long and hard, the Hawks match-up has me swaying more toward Keller. I don’t know man, it’s so hard. I guess if you need a big day from him, go for Keller, he has 3 scores this season and has had more great games. But if you want a sure thing, Miller is your guy. Over the last 11 weeks he’s had less than 40 yards receiving just once. Once. THat’s crazy for a TE. But he only has one TD. I’d go SF over Cleveland because of a couple reasons, 1. They have better playmakers on their defense and instead of playing deflated (like the Browns), they have been playing inspired since Mike took over as head coach. Also, Marc Bulger is and always will be a sitting duck that throws picks. Also, if I’m taking one defense in the Browns game, it’s probably the Bengals. They’ve been way better against the run lately – they haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher since Mewelde Moore in Week 7, and they’ve allowed just two all year. Crazy huh? And Dorsey can’t throw.

Johnson-ville from Jacksonville asks, “Would you start DeAngelo WIlliams, Joseph Addai, or Kevin Smith?”

JV, I’d go with Kevin Smith. I think he gets about 25 carries against the Saints this week, and I have a feeling that the Lions offensive line will be doing work against a Saints team that is basically already checked out. They’ve been eliminated. Bush is out. This should be a running game versus Drew Brees’ attempt to break the yardage record held by Dan Marino. I think Kevin Smith busts 100 yards and has a touchdown. I don’t think Addai or Williams will break the century mark in their respective match-ups.

Tim-e from Portland asks, “We have to decide our keepers in my work league before the last game in Week 17 – so I’m looking for some advice. I’m in a 12 team league where you have 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 FLEX, – It’s PPR, and you get bonuses for 100 yards at WR and RB, 50 yards at tight end, and 300 at QB – double bonus at 200, 100, and 450 – which four would you keep? DeAngelo Williams, Drew Brees, Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Jason Witten – thanks in advance.”

Tiny Tim-E – Interesting scoring format, and I think it definitely changes things. It seems like Witten is a great option, even though I hate the idea of keeping a TE – the way I see it is this, he’s going to bust 100 yards often, and thus he’s going to get double bonus action a lot. That is a huge bonus and could win you weeks. Led by a TE? Probably not, but he is definitely a big time scorer for you. I also hate keeping QBs, so I probably wouldn’t keep Drew. He’s having a hell of a year, sure, but as you well know QBs don’t blow up year after year after year. Now Drew’s about as sure as it gets, but part of me wants to keep Slaton, Marshall, and Chris Johnson. But, since Drew is a solid 300 option against just anybody in the league and thus his bonus will be enforced often. So, that takes one away from Slaton, Marshall, and Chris Johnson. I like Slaton, but I think Johnson is the more explosive of the two, and I have to imagine that LenDale gets less and less in that offense. So, my final answer is Drew, Witten, Marshall, and Chris Johnson. I think Marshall is one of the best in the league, and as Cutler matures Marshall will only get better and better.