2009 Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks

Posted on July 31, 2009 by luckylester

Last year I busted out my Top 30 Quarterbacks (And other positions) in a tiered system, and many people thanked me for doing this all in a different and more helpful way. If you’ve drafted with help lists (or cheat sheets), you know there’s no better way than tiers. Not only do they help you assess value at a single position, but they also give you an open view at what’s left on your overall value board. These are how I rate out the quarterbacks for 2009, basically a prediction for how I think the quarterbacks will score out by season’s end. Hope this helps! Good luck on Draft Day!!!

Tom Brady (1)
Drew Brees (2)

Last year old Tom was numero uno and the only one in my first tier. How’d that work out? So well that I’m willing to rank him number one a second straight season. Okay, maybe he only had 3 fantasy points in 2009, but that was one heck of a pass to Randy for a big gain. He’ll be back this year and he still has Randy and Wes, some old running backs, and one heck of a head coach. If Matt Cassel can look like a stud in this system, you can bet Tom will do just fine. Drew Brees gets in the tier this year though. His coach is dumb enough to call Drew’s number on about 75% of the plays, and Drew is accurate and smart enough to take that and translate it into 30+ touchdowns and 5000 yards. Not too shabby. I still say, stay away on draft day if the cost is first round pay. Hay. Bay. May…

Kurt Warner (3)
Peyton Manning (4)
Aaron Rodgers (5)
Phillip Rivers (6)
Donovan McNabb (7)

My second tier is full of studs, some of them have question marks, some of them are always good, some of them really surprised last season. But they are all had at a better value than the first two guys, and thus they are all more likely to make it on to my team than either guy in Tier 1. Kurt Warner might not be the sexiest name out there, but the guy deserves credit. He has a very talented offense that just got another weapon in Beanie Wells and last time I checked Anquan Boldin is still lining up at WR in Arizona. You can get him later than this, but he’s looking like a Top 3 QB to me. Peyton has a lot of question marks (new coach, no Marvin, running game questions) but he’s always been a consistent signal caller with all the answers. Aaron Rodgers wowed the world in his first season replacing a legend, and he’s won over some fans. He was better than Favre last year, and looks to have sealed his position as a Top 7 QB. Phillip Rivers may throw marshmallows, and LT may be getting old, and he may have a couple receivers that fantasy football doesn’t give much credit, but this guy wins and he puts up numbers and he plays in a terrible division. I like his chances at another huge season. McNabb won’t get as much love this year, but he stayed healthy and did work last season. He gets another stellar set of weapons in Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy (Draft) and Westy should be back doing damage in the backfield. I think McNabb could have one of his best years since TO went wacko. This tier might not be the first, but they are all close to the top two, and hold better value for sure.

III

Tony Romo (8)

Tony Romo is a very good quarterback. TO’s departure isn’t going to kill him, but I do think it will effect him a little bit. It’s hard not to put him in the 2nd tier, and I’ll still be debating it all pre-season, but right now he’s going into tier 3 all by himself. He could be great, but it depends on Roy Williams, and I’m still waiting to see how that will work out. Does he have the talent to be one of the best? Yes. Weapons? Maybe…

Carson Palmer (9)
Matt Schaub (10)
Jay Cutler (11)

I didn’t get Carson Palmer’s rebound year right last season, but I’m hoping he fits well in my 3rd tier this time around. He was hurt basically all of 2008, but I expect 2009 to be different. Already the Bengals have a better rushing attack, and despite TJ Housh’s departure, a WR trio of Chad “Johnson”, Laveranues Coles, and Chris Henry isn’t something to scoff at. He’s far from safe, and I don’t know if I’d want him as my number one, but I think he’ll stay healthy, and if he does his talent will get him in the Top 10. Matt Schaub needs to stay healthy and he’d be a Top 5 guy. That’s right, he’s got an offense with lots of talent, an O-Line that is slowly getting respectable, and one of the biggest baddest receivers in the game. He had the 2nd most fantasy points per attempt last season, and I’ve always liked the kid. He’ll do work in 2009. I loved Cutler last year and he did great. I don’t think as much of him this season, but he’s no slouch. I don’t think the Bears have a receiver as good as either of the Broncos’ starters in 2008, but his running game is better, and the play calling will be more balanced. I’ve yet to figure out how much that will hurt him. What does hurt him is his love for the interception, if that haunts him again, even this relatively low ranking (for him) is too high. He needs to be consistent to be a top tier guy.

David Garrard (12)
Matt Ryan (13)
Matt Cassel (14)
Matt Hasselbeck (15)
Kyle Orton (16)
Ben Roethlisberger (17)
Eli Manning (18)

To make things easier on your life (keeping friends, not being angry and bitter, not quitting fantasy football altogether because you hate everything) I’d target somebody in the first 4 tiers… But, if you want to walk the line, take a chance, and really be a fantasy rebel, here are a group of guys that could deal out fantasy worthy numbers for you in 2009 – but don’t get really crazy and leave yourself without anybody in the top 19. Tiers 6 and on aren’t places you want to be choosing a fantasy starter from. David Garrard heads this list because despite a bad offense, no real receiving threat, an O-line that was never healthy, and being knocked down more than any other quarterback in the league, he was still a Top 12 QB last season. He’s good. He’s accurate, and unless forced into a hellstorm of 300lb defensive lineman, he’s as mistake free as they get. He has Tory Holt this season, and while old, Tory is still always open. Jones Drew will be in the back field even more in ’09, and that can only mean good things for Garrard. He’s not a top level guy, but he’s going to get you points week in and week out – there’s something to be said for that. Matt Ryan, here’s a guy with a high ceiling. But he’s still a second year player and he still is in an offense that will give lots of carries to two very good running backs, Turner and Norwood. Too many weapons isn’t a bad problem though. Matt Cassel makes the biggest jump from ’08 to ’09, but he looks like a nice back-up option with a high reward possible. He has a very offensive minded head coach, he’s accurate, he has some talented young receivers (Dwayne Bowe is legit) and while I don’t think he’ll match last year’s totals, he’ll be serviceable in ’09. Matt Hasselbeck is a pretty low risk pick here. He got the best receiver on the free agent market as an upgrade. All his hurt receivers are coming back, and his new offense should take more downfield chances. He’s still very accurate and if he can stay healthy, he could be back to the Pro Bowl. Kyle Orton might be an awkward name to see here, but why not? Orton is in a pretty good situation with and offensive genius, a decent O-line, a super talented rookie running back, two very good receivers and an accurate offense that fits his throwing style. He still has that weird facial hair, but if he can do what he did in Chicago, Denver might turn out to be real nice. Big Ben is an interesting case, he takes lots of hits and gets hurt a lot. He isn’t asked to make too many mistake happy throws, and he isn’t asked to light up the airways. He’ll never have high yardage numbers, and with a couple real good running backs, his TDs will be limited too – but he can start for you in more than a couple situations. Everybody was ready to anoint Eli as the second coming of Peyton – and while he kind of is, blood wise, he’s just not. He makes way too many mistakes. He doesn’t have the most talented set of receivers, and he’s never played that well without Plax. Plus, don’t look now but his numbers seem to be declining – is that a good sign for a young QB? At least he won a Super Bowl…

Sage Rosenfels (19)
Joe Flacco (20)
Jason Campbell (21)
Jake Delhomme (22)
Marc Bulger (23)
Trent Edwards (24)
Shaun Hill (25)
Chad Pennington (26)
Daunte Culpepper (27)

I actually think Sage could be a starter (fantasy-wise) at some point during the season. He’s had some great games over the years, but he also makes some bone-head moves. He won’t be asked to light up the airways in Minnesota, but I do think he’ll win the job, and it’s not like ‘Sota is a place without weapons. Percy Harvin can only help to take some attention away from Bernard Berrien, and Adrian Peterson will require 7-8 guys near the box most of the time. Sage could really surprise. Joe Flacco loses Derrick Mason, and old guy who just happened to be his best receiver. Todd Heap is a shadow of his former self. I like Mark Clayton, but as a number 1? Yikes. But Joe put up solid points last year and he’s got a cannon. Jason Campbell was almost traded, but that doesn’t mean he won’t play well. Looking for a new chance, a new contract, and having a coach that believes in him are three things I like about the former Auburn Tiger. Campbell has the tools, I just hope that off season motivated him. Jake Delhomme had a semi-successful return from elbow surgery, and he might be even stronger in 2009, but his huge interceptions and the fact that Carolina runs the ball half the time makes Jake a tough sell to me, even with one of the scariest receivers in the league. Marc Bulger once had a promising career. Then he signed a big contract. Now he just throws interceptions. Still, those big numbers came from somewhere, and this late that might be worth a shot. Trent Edwards has TO on his side now. An older TO, sure, but still a freak of nature. Will that make him fantasy worthy in ’09? I bet a lot of leagues will see him owned on draft day. I’m not sure I believe the hype, but 2 talented receivers and couple solid running backs might have Trent as a steal on draft day. I’m assuming Shaun wins the job in SF, but you never know. Still, when he does play he usually makes good things happen. It’s never pretty, but Hill has started for me a couple times and always come through. Chad Pennington might deserve more love than this, I just don’t see any upside, and as a #3 *maybe low end #2 fantasy QB, low upside is Chinese water torture. Daunte Culpepper might not even get the start, but I’d love to see what happens if he does. If he’s in good shape, he might have just found his Randy Moss clone in Calvin Johnson, and if it weren’t for a few bad seasons, almost no future, and a #1 pick rookie QB behind him, I might just rank him higher…

VII

Brady Quinn (28)
JaMarcus Russell (29)
Byron Leftwich (30)
Vince Young (31)
Matthew Stafford (32)
Kerry Collins (33)
Mark Sanchez (34)

I find it coincidental that these two find themselves ranked in the same tier, albeit a different order than a couple seasons ago when they found themselves drafted in the 1st round. JaMarcus actually looked pretty damn good at the end of the season, throwing 2 touchdowns in each of his last 3 games. But he plays for the Raiders. Not much better, but a little higher ranked in my lists, is Brady Quinn. Both of these guys have some talent, but I don’t see more than a handful of wins from each team and that usually doesn’t mean fantasy prowess. Byron Leftwich could find a nice fantasy situation, but who knows, I can’t trust him much, even though I like the guy. He has a couple good running backs, a nice offensive line, and a couple decent receivers – but he still winds up like Hideo freaking Nomo… Vince Young is the back-up in Tennessee, maybe, but I still think he’s the most valuable of QB’s there. Kerry Collins (even if he does start) isn’t worth anything fantasy-wise, where Vince can do some amazing things if he ever gets the chance again. Matt Stafford has a huge arm, and could be throwing to Calvin Johnson, so there’s at least 10 TDs… I already talked about Kerry, hope you never see that guy on your team. Mark Sanchez has a talented player or two in New York, and he’s a better fantasy prospect than the guy who will likely start, but I don’t see a fantasy worthy year out of either. Last but least I guess, but there’s 34….

Coaching Changes….

Posted on January 13, 2009 by luckylester

There have been some coaching changes in the NFL – and even though the Super Bowl isn’t set, coaching positions will continue to fill in as time passes. So far, there have been a few changes that will surely effect the direction in which these new offenses will move. So far, these are the changes….

Jim Mora taking over for Mike Holmgren in Seattle while Greg Knapp takes over the offense…

Josh McDaniels taking over in Denver…

Jim Caldwell taking over for Tony Dungy in Indianapolis…

Eric Mangini taking over in Cleveland…

Mike Martz out as offensive coordinator in San Francisco as Mike Singletary takes the HC job full time….

Now everything doesn’t depend on coaching, and nothing is for sure, but right off the bat their has to be some things that look good and others that look bad, based not only on a long history but a new start or some old habits that I think will follow each coach to his new position.

Since Jim Mora and Jim Caldwell, since both have been groomed for their new positions, basically waiting in the shadows for their former coaches to call it quits so they could take over. Both coaches inherit teams that have done a lot of winning under their former coaches (Holmgren and Dungy respectively) but Mora’s situation is a little different than Caldwell’s because of each teams success, or in the Seahawks case; lack of success, over the past season.

Jim will start off his tenure in Seattle after the Hawks come off one of their worst seasons in recent memory. The Hawks went through a rash of injuries and close losses to finish as the 4th worst team in the NFL this year. That means they get the 4th pick in the NFL Draft this April. But that’s a long way away, and I just want to talk briefly about Jim Mora’s history and his success in the run-game, and if that will follow him to Seattle. I expect Mora to take more chances than Holmgren did, and I expect the running game to be better than it was last year, but Matt Hasselbeck isn’t quite the type of quarterback that Michael Vick was, and honestly, neither is Senecca Wallace. It will be interesting to see what happens with Matt and his back problems, but I would imagine that the Hawks don’t turn into one of the league’s best rushing teams right off the bat. Michael Vick had to be accounted for at all times, and that opened up a lot of holes for TJ Duckett, and more impressively, Warrick Dunn. But, there weren’t a lot of defenses worried about Vick’s throwing prowess, so things could open up in the run game because of that in Seattle as well. All things being said, I think the 3rd down and 9 draw plays are likely out of the play book – the stop routes might not find a place in Jim’s heart, and history would tell you that Seattle receivers won’t be great options at your next fantasy draft either. All things being said, this personnel is much different than it was in Atlanta, so Mora’s plan of attack may be different as well.

Jim Caldwell’s team is good. They have an on-the-field coach in Peyton Manning and some great pieces. I imagine Marvin Harrison will be gone (mainly because of contract issues), but that just opens things up for Anthony Gonzalez. Gonzo likely moves to Marvin’s spot, and unless the Colts do something to add another receiver, it will open up a lot of things for Dominic Rhodes out of the backfield and Dallas Clark as well. Without a 3rd solid receiver, the Colts would rely more on their 3rd down back and Manning’s solid tight end. Caldwell has been with the Colts for some time, and I seriously doubt much will change in terms of fantasy value amongst those players. Tony Dungy always did a good job of coaching coaches, and allowing those coaches to coach their respective positions and do their jobs – I imagine Caldwell follows that way of work.

Eric Mangini takes over in Cleveland, and there’s no doubt that this guy has a quality offensive mind, it’s just that his play calling is brutal. I’m sure things will get better offensively for the stars in Cleveland, well everyone besides back-up running backs. Time will only tell if Jamal Lewis will be back, but if he is, you can bet that Harrison won’t get much time to show what he’s got. Mangini didn’t give Leon Washington the ball nearly enough in New York, and in all honesty, he didn’t give Thomas Jones the ball enough either. Still, the yards per carry and the originality of the offense will improve. I think Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards are both built for Mangini’s ariel assault, the short timing throws, and their athleticism should up their value heading into 2009’s fantasy season. Still, the play calling from Mangini hasn’t impressed me, and the ups and downs will surely frustrate fantasy owners of Browns – but then again, the frustration couldn’t even get close to last season’s debacle – so move all Browns up a little bit if you ask me.

Josh McDaniels gets praised for his work by Bill Belichick – that’s enough for me. The Patriots get more out of their players than any other team in the league, and McDaniels had a first hand look at how great teams are supposed to go about their business, attack opposing teams, and prepare for all kinds of situations. McDaniels seems to be a brilliant offensive mind, but there are still some things to be seen from him as a head coach. Will he be as frustrating as Mike Shanahan was? I doubt it. Mike’s running back carousel probably won’t be something McDaniels goes with, but he did coach in New England, and Belichick used his backs pretty randomly as well – so you never know. One thing I do know is that McDaniels is going to throw the rock, and Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Eddie Royal all moved up a little bit in my book. But one thing you have to remember is that Josh doesn’t have a background of being a head coach, and not all assistants coach just like the guy they coached under – still, with the offensive success under Brady and then Cassel – I seriously doubt that McDaniels has an even based passing and rushing attack. Will he run? You bet – but the pass is going to be what this new offensive mind attacks with, and maybe even more prolifically than Shanny did with the Broncos in ’08.

Mike Martz leaves San Francisco and I’m really, really sad to see him go. Poor play calls, getting his quarterbacks killed, having mediocre QBs throw 35 times a game, basically begging them to fail – yeah, I’m willing to say that Martz is one of the most ridiculously praised offensive gurus in the league. I’m not sure about how the new OC in San Francisco will attack things, but I’m willing to bet that Frank Gore has more runs (around 20-26 per game) and catches less passes next season. Now Frank has always been a great pass catcher, but he’ll be used a lot out of the backfield, because that’s what Mike Singletary wants. I also think that Gore will be better because of this. And so will the 49ers. Will Shaun Hill (or whomever the QB in San Francisco is) be drafted in all leagues? No, because Mike Martz isn’t here and the new offensive coordinator will be smart enough to realize that throwing the ball 76% of the time isn’t smart. So upgrade the run in SF and downgrade the passing game – this is no longer a Martz influenced unit…

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 3

Posted on September 19, 2008 by Papa Weimer

Questions and Answers – let the evil genius do his dirty work!!!

Billiam from Southy writes, “Do you really think the Patriots have a chance to win the Super Bowl without Tom in attendance? I just can’t see the Colts doing much without Peyton, the Cowboys doing anything without Romo, and even the Steelers doing work against Pittsburgh – how can the Pats still have a chance?”

Well Billiam (Bill and Williams meshing in one is pure brilliance), I have a feeling Pats do indeed have a chance, and there is one reason why – Bill Belichick. The real Evil Genius has his work cut out for him, no doubt about that, but he can still game plan for anything, this is just considered an extreme challenge. I couldn’t think about a tougher way to win a Super Bowl, or a more awkward pre-season to lose your league MVP – but yes, I still like the Pats chances just about as much as anyone else in the AFC. It’s funny, there were a few seconds there where Cassel looked like he was getting cut, Gutierrez was easily outplaying him, and Matt was really struggling. When you add that to the fact that Cassel looked terrible in his only action last year, it seemed his time in New England was just about over. Then Matt Gutie was cut, Tom was hurt, and here Matt is, the team’s success unpredictably in his hands. I love it. Not as many points- not as many chances on the field -but I still like the Pats to win 11 or 12 and be a tough out in the playoffs.

Douglas from the O asks, “Do you think Jonathan Stewart has officially become the #1 guy in Carolina? I may be a little biased, having taken some classes with Jon last season, but he looks like the better runner and it seems like Carolina is going to him with the game on the line. Can I start him this week?”

You may be biased, but you hit this one right in the O. Except I wouldn’t start him this week, not against Minnesota. I also wouldn’t say he is the “official #1” – in fact, he’s the “official #2” – but very similar to Maurice Jones Drew the last couple years in Jacksonville, the #2 is a better option that the #1 and it seems like hardheadedness and veteran favortism are the only reasons the “backups” aren’t getting more looks. I can see why both Fred Taylor and DeAngelo are starting, don’t get me wrong, but I also see a lot of value and some dynamic ability from these back-ups. Hold on to your former classmate, I think his time will come, and he’ll be one hell of a start.

Rollie from Anchorage says, “How do you like you some Steve Smith this weekend? Would you start him over Eddie Royal and Dwayne Bowe?”

Rollie, you bet. I love me some Steve Smith, and while Eddie Royal looks like a great option, and Bowe doesn’t look like a bad ride either, Steve is probably pretty amped to help his team considering they went 2-0 without him, and he’s the best player in this bunch. As much as anyone, (besides maybe my nephew), I like Eddie Royal – but Steve Smith is what Royal can only hope to become. He’s a less polished version of Smith right now, and while he does play against New Orleans, it’s not like Minnesota’s secondary is solid either. Bowe goes up against the Falcons, a secondary that is also poor, but he has Tyler Thigpen throwing him the ball – could be decent for Dwayne, but he doesn’t have Jake Delhomme or Jay Cutler throwing him the ball, right? Go with Steve Rollie!

Three for Thursday: Week 3

Posted on September 18, 2008 by luckylester

I figured I might as well put up a couple of my pre-season predictions that aren’t only looking good, but brilliant as of heading into Week 3. Without patting myself on the back any harder, here’s three big ones…

1. The first prediction I’m sharing is actually 2 predictions, and both look good. “Chris Johnson will lead the Titans in yards (receiving and rushing combined).” and “Chris Johnson is the NFL’s version of Usain Bolt.” Of course he is. I love sharing this one because my uncle and I fought hard on this one, so much so that he threw up a prediction that LenDale would lead the Titans in fantasy points. Newsflash pops, I was right about this kid. He’s too quick not to get the ball to, and check this out, he runs like a tough man. He’s already supposed to get more touches in Week 3. That doesn’t bode well for LenDale owners, and it surely doesn’t look good for your prediction or the poor Houston Texans defense they’ll be going up against. Yhatzee!

2. Yet another two predictions deep for this one… “Tom Brady won’t throw more than 35 touchdowns this season,” and even better yet, “(Two of Three) Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, and Tom Brady will miss at least one football game due to injuries.” You have to admit, it’s looking good. I’m not one to hope for injuries, but Brett is in a new system that has him thinking a bit more, plus the law of averages isn’t on his side (never hurt, really old – put it together). But I’m guessing Peyton is the guy that misses a game. His offensive line is struggling, and he doesn’t get his center back for a few weeks. I hope not, because even though I’m not the biggest fan of the guy, he’s a great football player for sure and I don’t want anyone to ever get hurt, but don’t be surprised if he gets dinged here in the next couple games. That would make this prediction 100% true.

3. “Frank Gore will eclipse 1,500 total yards, 70 receptions, and score 10+ touchdowns. ” There were a lot of people, “experts” out there ready to give Gore a busty title before the season even started. Not I. I knew that Gore was the quickest way for Mike Martz to score points, and if there’s ever been anything that guy likes to do it’s eat Popeye’s Chicken and score points. After two games, Mr. Gore has 157 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, and 9 catches for 93 receiving yards. Besides the touchdowns, which I think will come, he’s on pace (lets say he plays 14 games) to rush for 1,100 yards, catch 63 balls for 651 yards and score 7 times. That looks about right. He doesn’t have to play tough defenses and he is the man in San Fran. Roll on Mr. Gore!

NFL Free Picks: Week 2

Posted on September 11, 2008 by luckylester

Week 1 in the NFL saw some big upsets, some big drummings at the hands of the Cowboys and Eagles, the loss of last season’s record breaking MVP, and of course two big fat losses for the Raiders and Rams – so some things are new and some are the same old same. Week 2 is bound to surprise here and there, and remember, one bad week a season doesn’t make – or something like that. 15 more games to go for every single one of these teams – and this Sunday is a new start for every single one of them. This is how I see the cookie crumbling – the way of the road warriors?

Oakland Raiders +4.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs: The Raiders had some tough bounces roll away from them, and they just got caught in a opening night nightmare against the Broncos on Monday Night. I don’t think Denver is quite that good, and Oakland isn’t that bad. In fact, I think the Raiders will go back to the drawing board and see that running the ball will work for them. Also, JaMarcus will get a little more time against the Chiefs, and this game will come down to the wire. Close games are always tough to call, but I’m taking the Raiders and the points in this one, 4.5 is too much for the Chiefs to give – plus, these guys have lost 10 straight games going back to last year.

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-3): Like any capper in the last few seasons, I hate to take the Panthers as a favorite against just about anyone – especially at home where they don’t play their best ball. But these are the Bears here. A Bears team that put it all together and made a mockery of the Colts in Week 1. I can’t buy them doing that again. The Panthers are for real this year boys and girls, not just a finicky team that will be up and down like it’s their job. They have a solid healthy rushing attack with two confident running options. Aside from Steve Smith (out one more week) they still have Mushin Muhammad and D.J. Hackett, two very competent receivers – and a tight end, Donte Rosario, that looks like a nice options as well. At home against a Bears team that played above and beyond last week? You bet, that’s worth a shot right there.

New Orleans Saints (+1) @ Washington Redskins: Little do people know, but New Orleans is better away from New Orleans than they are at home in… New Orleans. I like the Redskins to have a little bit better cohesion offensively this week, but I don’t expect their defense to be as tough in thier own red-zone. The Saints score 3 touchdowns, kick one field goal, and this thing is over. Marques Colston isn’t in action for the next few weeks, so expect some fireworks from little used Robert Meachem. I think Robert is a great option for Drew with Colston out. He’s a big kid and he’s got wheels. Look for New Orleans to utilize him against the Redskins.

Indianapolis Colts (pk) @ Minnesota Vikings: I like the Vikings to exploit the Colts run defense, but this game comes down to the wire and Peyton Manning, with one regular season game under his belt, can do enough against a suspect Viking pass defense to take this game on the road. This is no easy pick, though. The Colts were shredded by Matt Forte and the Bears rushing attack last week, just imagine what the Vikings plan to do with them. Also, Indy looked pretty disjointed without Jeff Saturday handing the ball to Peyton, if it was his absence that had the Colts lost, this could be a long game. I’m betting on Peyton’s rust being more of the problem than Saturday’s musk – we’ll see.

New York Giants (-8) @ St. Louis Rams: This one is tough for me because I expected more out of the Rams this season. The Giants are tough to run against, and they have a pretty nice group of corners as well. Seeing Philly pick the Rams apart has me moving away from them, especially after they showed absolutely no heart during the contests. Still, I wouldn’t wager the world on this game – The Rams will be out to prove their worth once again. The thing that has me siding with the Giants is their run defense and rushing attack – both are powerful. Also, the Giants are a very good road team – that will help them cover.

Buffalo Bills (+6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Tough game for sure. I think a lot of the Jaguars, but without three of their starting offensive linemen, the Jaguars just don’t seem like a good favorite to bet on. I think the Jags will be better against the Bills than the Hawks were, but Buffalo’s physical play is a nice match-up for a physical Jags team. There aren’t many teams that will try to out-tough the Jaguars, and the Bills might just do that in Week 2. Take the points in this battle.

Atlanta Falcons (+9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Way the Bucs play, and the way Atlanta is destined to try and grind it out, I just have to take all of the 9 points here. I know it’s different on the road for a young team, but with two teams not willing to risk a lot, those 9 points look pretty darned good. The Falcons can run the ball, and they seem to be loving life under a real head coach. They have confidence and a young signal caller that is going to be a great one. Lots of weapons of offense will be a tough match-up for Tampa. A good game here – so take the points.

San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Seattle Seahawks: I like the Niners to cover in this one. Not only did the Hawks get thinner at wide receiver, but they also have to try and stop Frank Gore, a guy that just kills them usually. The Niners will be able to stick to it and put up enough points to stay close in Seattle, even though the Hawks play well at home, they look like a dejected unit right now. They just lost their starting guard for the season, and yet another receiver is out. They also cut Jordan Kent, a guy that played minutes last week, though he was drop-happy. Right now they are trying to get their back-up quarterback on the field to catch passes – yes, it looks desperate in Seattle.

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals (-6): I like the Cardinals here. Arizona is a solid team against the run, and that’s really all Miami has. Chad Pennington can throw it accurately, but the safeties in Arizona are really speedy ball hawks, and both Rolle and Wilson will make big plays on Sunday. I expect Kurt Warner to air it out a little more against a suspect Dolphins secondary, as his two receivers look to have big games. The Cardinals are the best team in the NFC West, and while that doesn’t say much, it does mean they can handle the Dolphins with ease.

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans (-4): I’m willing to believe that the Ravens awesome defensive performance last week was at least partially due to the horrid play by the Bengals. Houston will be a lot tougher defensively and I’m assuming offensively as well. Joe Flacco will have a tough time escaping Mario Williams – that’s for sure. If the Ravens can’t run the ball, this has the makings of a 24-6 ball game. I don’t expect the Ravens to score more than 17 points in half of their games this season. 17 won’t do it in Houston. Take the Texans as a solid bet in Week 2.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns: I still don’t think much of Cleveland. They’re all probably sitting around practice this week thinking that Week 1 was a fluke, and they’ll get back on track with a big win over the Steelers – wrong. It’s amazing how much the Browns remind me of last years’ Saints. I know Pittsburgh isn’t the same on the road as they are at home, but this one has the makings of a blowout. Jamal Lewis won’t be able to run much, because the Steelers plug up rushing attacks week in and week out. That leaves Derek Anderson, a guy that hasn’t had a good game since Week 12 last year, to beat them. The Steel-Show won’t let that happen. Look for Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall to be a nice 1-2 punch against Cleveland, just like Barber and Felix Jones were last week.

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Detroit Lions: Come on, this seems like an insulting line. This is definitely one of my picks of the week. Before the season, after the season, before the LIons were killed by Atlanta or after the Lions had beaten the ’89 49ers, I don’t care, I’m still taking the Packers in this one. Aaron Rodgers is a sniper. His accurate air assault and the Packers powerful rushing attack should dominate this game by keeping possession in their hands. Take the Pack to advance to 2-0.

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Free Money – even with Kerry Collins at quarterback. The Titans and the Bengals are on a different level, same league, but different level. For example, the Titans have 11 starting defensive players that can really tackle. The Bengals have one, and he’s a rookie. The Titans have a solid offensive attack despite quarterback trouble -the Bengals have a talented quarterback with previous success that looks lost because of how bad his offense is. Things are going bad in Cinci, and a Titan beat down isn’t going to make them feel any better.

San Diego Chargers (pk) @ Denver Broncos: Yes, Denver lit up Oakland in Week 1, but I have to like the Chargers as a pick’em against Denver. I just don’t see San Diego going 0-2 to start the season. Last week was a nice little wake-up call. Take advantage of Denver’s big Nationally televised annihilation of the Raiders on Monday Night Football, and take the Chargers in Denver. San Diego is the better all around team. They will run over Denver like Atlanta did to Detroit. Hundreds of rushing yards are in the Chargers immediate future.

New England Patriots (+2.5) @ New York Jets: At least there was something good out of Tom Brady going down with an injury – we get this spread to play with. I’ll take the Patriots as a dog against the Jets and laugh it all the way to the bank. There’s not much to say about this game besides this, the Jets aren’t as good as the Patriots. They might have a better quarterback right now, but that’s about it. Even the Pats rushing attack will likely out-gain the Jets’. Look for a nice road win from a team that just lost their leader.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5): This is a tough one for me because the Eagles looked so good and they are absolutely chalked full of talent – however, the Cowboys looked almost equally as good against a better team (or so people think Cleveland is better than the Rams, I’d probably agree). Still, that’s just last week, and how much does last week really matter? Are the Eagles really that solid on offense? Are the Cowboys that legit defensively? It’s a tough game to call, that’s for sure. And then you put in the Eagle/Cowboy rivalry to boot. I’m going to say that Donovan McNabb has a tough time handling the Cowboys pressure, as Dallas forces him into some poor decisions. The Cowboys will also hold Philly’s rushing attack in check – so I’m going with the Cowboys here. Tough call for sure, but the Boys get the nod.

Ten for Tuesday: Week 2

Posted on September 9, 2008 by luckylester

Yeah, Week 1 is officially in the books and I’ve got 10 big ones for Tuesday’s column. Some surprised, some disappointed, and then their were guys that had my jaw dropping – both good and bad. Read up and see who else I liked besides the stellar rookie wideout in Denver, Eddie Royal.

Thomas Brady: I’m not sure if his name is Thomas, but it sounded more formal. Now that he’s done for the year and the Patriots Championship dreams are crushed, I figure using the more somber title is more appropriate. Give your head a shake!!! Tom may be down and out, but the Patriots chances to win are still solid, just like yours. That’s right, just because of one injury it doesn’t mean that you’re down and out. First of all, the Patriots still have one of the best teams in the league, and now they’ll just have to do it with Matt instead of Tom. Trading the best quarterback in the league for a career back-up (yes, even in college Matt was a back-up) isn’t the best deal in the world, but there’s ways to win football games just like there’s ways for you to win at fantasy. Here are some guys that will manage as the season moves forward. Chad Pennington, Matt Ryan, JaMarcus Russell, Jason Campbell, and Tarvaris Jackson (that’s right, they’ll all be decent). Some guys that could be great: Jake Delhomme and Matt Cassel. Matt still has two great receivers and an offense that is genius in what they do. Jake will get Steve Smith back and be even better than he was in Week 1. Don’t lose your marbles because you spent a 1st round pick on a guy that played half a quarter – that dream is dead, move forward, make it work and it will be just that much more refreshing.

Eddie Royal is a Best!: No receiver looked quicker this weekend than Eddie Royal did. Not only did he look awesome, but he should have had another touchdown, but he lined up a foot too far back and some ref decided to be a stickler. So what. This kid is no one-day wonder, and he will do good things even as Brandon Marshall comes back. He’s a tireless worker and has the respect of everyone that means anything on that Bronco team. Don’t pass up the chance to get him if he’s still available.

Chris Johnson: Told you. I’ve been saying it for a long time, and I figure now is the time where everyone believes me. Honestly, I’m not sure if he’ll do as well with Kerry Collins in, because now defenses don’t have to worry about Vince running, but he should still get more carries than LenDale White. Don’t trade the world for him, but if you can pick him up, or give some sad Brady owner a decent new starting quarterback to get him, I’d jump on it.

And the Bush Growith: I missed on this prediction – that’s for sure. The Bucs had always held Bush to very little, but on Sunday Reggie showed us a little something. Hopefully that big performance and game winning touchdown gives the kid a little more confidence. I don’t know how a guy that gets to follow that Kim girl’s butt around can lack so much confidence, but he has rarely looked like a confident back. I’m not sure if this is a thing to come, but prior to the pre-season I was really high on Bush. I thought he’d score more touchdowns this season than any other year, and the way he was utilized on Sunday, I might have to go back to that prediction. Go Reggie! Go Kim!

Mike Tuner for President: In just about every single draft I had I picked this guy. There were a lot of reasons for that, but 220 yards and 2 touchdowns on 20 touches wasn’t one of them. That’s right, even my lofty expectations weren’t that high. And now, now that I’ve seen what Turner can do in that new offensive scheme in Atlanta, I think he has a chance in 2008 to take the presidency. You won’t be able to get him – probably, but if you Steven Jackson owners know what’s good for you, you’ll try to trick an unsuspecting Turner owner into a great “value” trade. You Turner owners should ignore that stupid term and worse idea – but not everyone reads this article (unfortunately) so do what you can do.

Seattle’s Raining Receivers: They are coming down like cats and dogs. First Branch at the end of last season. Then Engram. Now Burleson. Nate had a lot of upside coming in, and many fantasy owners, such as myself, were expecting big things from the talented wideout. So sad, so sorry, so long for that idea. Nate is out for the year. But this is the time to go get Deion Branch and maybe Engram too. You can probably stash them on your IR, if your league has one, and even then, it’s likely that both receivers have more value than some #5 and #6 receivers you have right now. They might play as early as Week 3, and probably by the Hawks 4th game of the season. Do work early and be happy later.

Dallas Does Debbie – err, Cleveland: Okay, feel free to look back at my Five for Friday article to properly appreciate this prediction. The Cowboys looked brilliant where the Browns looked like, well, like everyone expected the Browns to be last season before they turned everything around. You know what, here’s a quote from my article on Friday, “The Cowboys are going to do what the Colts did to the Saints to start the ‘07 season, and many a people are going to be seen ripping out their hair because they put all their chips in the Brown doo-doo. Nobody likes brown doo-doo. But when this does happen, feel free to take advantage of those hair-rippers. Unlike you, most fantasy fans erupt prematurely like the apple pie kid. Week 1 and 2 are times where calm people build season-long dynasties.” There – now if you didn’t read that, then at least you get the gist of what’s important now (also known as W.I.N).

Duddly Do Rights: The Eagles did everything right against the Rams. Defensively, but especially offensively, there was no team more wide open and efficient in what they did than Philly. The Eagles are known for their ability to lay an egg or two, from time to time, but they sure kicked the season off with a full-blown shellacking. Atlanta looked glorious against the Lions. It wasn’t only Mike Turner – it was everyone in Atlanta’s offense. Matt Ryan looks like the read deal, one of the best quarterback prospects in a while, Jerious Norwood looked good too, and so did that receiving corps. In the chances they got, this team flourished all over. You have to love that for a Falcons group that has gone through some turmoil in the recent past. Denver did work, too. Their best receiver might not have been the guy that had to sit this game out after all. Okay, too fast? Maybe. But Eddie Royal is the sure-thing #2 for a reason. He’ll be special when his career is over. And Jay Cutler is going to be a great one. Not a good one. Not a pro-bowler. He’s going to be an MVP type hall-of-famer by the time his career is over. Denver did a lot of good, and a lot of it was because of Jay.

Duddly Do Wrongs: Cincinnati – to start with, everything. Carson looked bad, but the routes were shoddy, the defense was horrendous, and the offensive line had me thinking Carson was going to join Tom in an “out for the year” scenario. Marvin Lewis better get back to the drawing board before Bengals’ brass send it out in a box. Seattle – where or where have you gone? I know the receiving corps is depleted, but ask Donovan McNabb, is that any reason to leave your game in Seattle? The Hawks need to run the ball more and ask an injured Matt Hasselbeck to do less. The load rests on Julius Jones’ shoulders next week – I think he’ll step up. Houston – defensively, you are worrying me. You have solid linebackers, two great defensive linemen, and while that doesn’t mean your secondary is great, it does mean you shouldn’t give up 130+ yards to Willie Parker and crew. Show me something next week, but more importantly, don’t leave your game at home when you play on the road – that garbage is embarrassing. Still, Schaub is going to be good, and Andre Johnson will light up the airways with him.

Trick Love the Kids: Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Ray Rice – There are other kids I like as well, but these three guys should run wild next week in their respective match-ups. Chris will torment a Bengals team that can’t tackle a slow 7th grader. Matt Forte will give the Panthers defense more yards than LT did last week, And Ray Rice will have more yards on less carries against the Texans. There it is, Ten for Tuesday. See you tomorrow!

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 1

Posted on September 9, 2008 by luckylester

It all started very nicely with a Giants cover at home against the Skins – faltered a little in the morning games and then shot back up in the afternoon/night games to finish off the week. Overall the record looks decent after picking every game in Week 1 I finished at 10-6… People in “the business” might say that I’m riding a 6 game winning streak headed into Week 2 – I think that term is ridiculous, but check it out for yourself!

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-3): (7-16: WINNER!) “The Redskins could become a solid unit later in the season, but early on I still expect them to make mistakes with their new systems. Jim Zorn is a good coach, and Jason Campbell should flourish under his tutelage, but Zorn is no miracle worker and the Skins should still struggle to find consistency. Expect the Giants to grind one out to open the season,” – There were a couple things that I got right, surely, one being the game – which is nice, and the other being the plethora of mistakes the Redskins would make in their opening game under Jim Zorn. But I also said, “Jim Zorn is a good coach,” which is probably a stretch. What I should have said was, I think Zorn will be a very good coach. Because right now, he’s just a rookie, and he’s calling plays – so he’s really putting himself in a tough spot. But they’ll get better – I’m just happy I took the Giants in this one, and am even happier that James Thrash let a last minute touchdown slip through his fingers. Yhatzee!

Cincinnati Bengals (pk) @ Baltimore Ravens: (10-17: LOSS) “I really dislike both of these teams. I didn’t like either much to start with, but then I was basically forced to watch a couple of each team’s pre-season games. Gross. I would say that no team played worse than the Bengals during the pre-season, but I don’t think I could back that up if someone brought up the Ravens.” This one was pretty ugly, but that was because we had to watch the Bengals on offense and defense. I’ve never seen Carson Palmer look so bad in my entire life. I’ve seen that defense look this bad, however. I was wrong about the Bengals putting some points on the board, and I probably didn’t give the Ravens defense enough credit. Either that or the Bengals are really, really bad. I’ll decide which one later in the week. Remember, I warned you, I really didn’t like this game. If I’m not feeling good about a game, I will let you know in my picks section.

New York Jets (-3) @ Miami Dolphins: (20-14: WINNER!) Miami played better than I expected, and really had a chance down the stretch to tie it up, but only because the Jets squandered some opportunities. I’ll tell you what, I’m not believing the Jets as a top AFC team quite yet, even with a narrow week 1 win over the powerhouse Dolphins. I’ll take my win here, that’s for sure – because in any game a win is a win. Thomas Jones rushed for 100+ and scored a touchdown, showing me the improvement on New York’s offensive line.

Kansas City Chiefs (+17) @ New England Patriots: (10-17: WINNER!) The Chiefs ran the ball a lot and took a lot of time off the clock – but I must say that Tom Brady’s injury had to help the cause in this one. I may have been a loser if Tom stayed in, and I may have still lost had the Patriots not fumbled the ball all over the field. But my point is this, I won. Despite anything that happened, you have to look at the win-loss column when the games are done being played. The Patriots still won this game but I covered with ease. I’ll take a win however I can get it, right, have I made that clear enough? However, this game gives the Patriots great value down the stretch, in my humble opinion, so keep that in mind as the season moves on. I also like the Chiefs under Huard – I think he makes them a better bet when he’s under center.

Houston Texans (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (38-17: LOSS) “Maybe it’s because I’m an old offensive guard, but I have a feeling that Alan Fanneca’s absence will hurt the Steelers just as much as his place in New York will help the Jets. The one thing that has me questioning myself is the Texans on the road versus the Steelers at home. The Steelers only lost to the Jaguars in Pittsburgh last season, having their way with most other opponents. The Texans won just two games on the road, versus a bad Panthers team and an even worse Raiders team. They didn’t lose by less than 8 in any of their road losses. I’m not a lover of last years’ numbers, so I’m not changing my pick here – I’m just warning you readers.” Okay, a couple things about capping games. Really, you can find reasons to take either side of any game, it’s the side that makes the most sense to you that is important. Well, in most cases. In this case, I thought Fanneca’s absence would hurt the Steelers rushing attack – I was dead wrong about that because Willie Parker hasn’t looked better than he did on Sunday and Big Ben only had to throw 11 times all day. Also, I was right about the road woes the Texans go through and the confidence the Steelers have at home. I probably was excited about the Texans this season, and put too much weight in the absence of one guy in Pittsburgh. The Steelers sure looked good on opening night. And by the way, 38-17 and it wasn’t that close.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (+3): (7-16: WINNER!) “The Titans are a very tough defense that plays inspired at home. I know the Jaguars are solid, and they’ve looked very good in the pre-season compared to the Titans who have looked absent, but Tennessee as a 3 point dog at home against a beat up Jaguars offense? I can’t find any value in the Jaguars here, so the bet has to go with Tennessee.” What can I say, this game was close just like I knew it would be. And what else do you know, the Titans defense played out of their minds and looked brilliant against a beat up Jaguars offense. From time to time I like my style enough to give myself a back pat, this is one of those times.

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons: (21-34: LOSS) “This game isn’t going to be a blowout, but I don’t see the Falcons having enough secondary talent to keep the Lions receiving corps out of the end-zone. I like the Falcons more than most, and am not crazy about the Lions – I just don’t think this is a good match-up for Atlanta. The Falcons will find success on the ground, but Detroit will eventually realize that they can pick on the rookie quarterback a little bit – stack the box a lot – and end up winning this game by a touchdown or more.” Oh Detroit! The Lions probably would have got smoked either way, and maybe 9 Lions in the box doesn’t mean they can stop Michael Turner – I don’t even know if 11 would do it. The Falcons ran all over the Lions, and while the Falcons secondary wasn’t good enough to completely keep the Lions receivers out of the end-zone, they sure did a good enough job while getting 34 points from their offense. I liked the Falcons more than most, and I still do, I just dislike the Lions more than I did in the first place.

Seattle Seahawks (+1) @ Buffalo Bills: (10-17: LOSS) I expected the Seahawks to fly to Buffalo, play an entire football game, and possibly walk away with a win. Instead, the Husky’s got in Hawk uniforms, flew to Buffalo, were obviously frightened of the physicality involved, looked like a poor college team playing against a decent NFL team and the score reflects that. I’m not positive that’s what happened, but it’s my best guess. I watched most of this game and it didn’t look good for Hawk fans. This, and the upcoming Colts game, made me think – is it just me or do teams with retiring coaches struggle to find somebody to play for? Hmmm… It’s something to think about. Holmgren and Dungy are both most likely to coach for one more season – both teams played terrible – coincidence?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: (20-24: LOSS) The Bucs missed some key opportunities and still had a chance late in this game. The score went back and forth and this one was very close. I still like the Bucs to be the better of the two teams, and I think play calling hurt the Bucs chances a bit in this one. Anytime you have a running back that carries the ball 10 times for 90+ yards in a close game, you should have probably given him the ball a few more times. I took a half point loss, but it didn’t feel quite so bad because I still finished strong in Week 1.

St. Louis Rams (+8.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (3-38: LOSS) “What can I say? I really like the Rams as a huge dog in Philly.” What can I say? I watched this game a little and immediately felt like an idiot. The Rams hurt my feelings and I will forever use voodoo and witch doctor magic spells to torment coaches and players from now until my dying day. No, but honestly, the Rams looked worse than any other team in the league. I can’t imagine they are this bad, nor do I believe that the Eagles are this good – but the Eagles are better than I gave them credit for, and the Rams don’t look like a team, they look like Dorothy’s worse nightmare – the Tin Man, Lion, and Scarecrow all mashed into one mindless, heartless, courageless unit. Discouraging to say the least.

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (28-10: WINNER!) “I don’t know if I’m willing to buy the Cowboys as this season’s Super Bowl favorite, but I will tell you that I’m ready to purchase the Browns as this year’s big disappointment. I liken the Browns to New Orleans last year – and this game is going to be a tough one for them.” I’m not sure if the Browns will lose four straight to start the year or continue to look as dejected as New Orleans was to start their 2007 campaign – but this was a very similar start for the Browns. I’m not fortune teller, but I can see a comparison when it jumps out in front of me – this one looks obvious. Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

Carolina Panthers (+10) @ San Diego Chargers: (26-24: WINNER!) “I kind of like Carolina to put up a battle in this one. The Panthers defense is the unit that looks good to me. Peppers will be better after a down season and Jon Beason is going to be one heck of a linebacker in this league. Look for the Panthers to stay within single digits and give an overhyped Chargers team a run for their money on opening day. Plus, the Panthers are always solid value as a dog,” History was on my side in this one. The Panthers may have been pretty lucky to get the win (I liken Rosario’s catch to Dwight Clark’s catch, he just pulled it out of the sky) but this cover was never in doubt. The tandem of Williams and Stewart looked and played more efficient than LT and the Charger’s rushing attack, and Jake Delhomme was the old, accurate quarterback that he always is when healthy. The Panthers won a big one as a road dog – weird.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: (23-13: WINNER!) This game was pretty ugly, but one things stuck out to me – Frank Gore is really good. The Cardinals were all over this guy and he still had one hell of a game. He should be something in this offense, because he just had a very nice game against an underrated Cardinals defense. Still, the 49ers couldn’t pull off the upset, and Arizona managed the game will without forcing anything. That’s a good way to win against a bad team. I didn’t expect Kurt and company to play so smart – but I’ll take it.

Chicago Bears (+10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: (7-16: WINNER!) “The Colts defense looked bad during the pre-season, really bad, and while that doesn’t always mean the world is falling, I can’t see it as a good sign of things to come. I think Kyle Orton is a relatively mistake free quarterback and that bodes well for the Bears covering as big dogs. I think Chicago will actually run the ball pretty effectively against the Colts, even though the Bears don’t have a stellar offensive line. Manning will be slow to come back, and despite what he wants you to believe, he’s not 100%.” Well alright! Some times you cap a game, garner some nice predictions, and look like you’ve done this before (See Titans/Jaguars). And other times you look like a complete moron (see Eagles/Rams). But this isn’t either of those times, this is one of those times where you look like a damned fortune teller. Believe it or not I don’t time travel and I know nothing sure about the future. But I did drop a dime deep pass on this game. I may have been the only one expecting the Bears to run all over the Colts and have Indy look silly. But sometimes it’s nice to be different, and when you call it you call it. I take the bumps, lumps, and bruises – so now I’ll take the cake and eat it. All of it.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-2):(7-16: WINNER!) “Aaron Rodgers is better than anyone is giving him credit for, but on this team he won’t have to be. Aaron won’t take all the big chances that Brett took, and while he won’t be as flashy or tally up the numbers like #4, he will give the Packers a great chance to win each time he takes the field. Don’t give up on the Packers just because Brett is wearing a different color green.” You have to admit, I am right about Rodgers. He was 18-22 on the night and looks like a kid that really knows the game. He’ll throw a minimal amount of interceptions and keep his team in the game. He can make all the throws – don’t confuse him for Chad Pennington or Kyle Orton. He’s got something, and I like it. The Vikings didn’t game plan very well for this one. If they run the ball more, the might have won this game. Still, they had a chance. But it wasn’t as close as the score. The Packers left a lot of points on the field, so feel free to ride them early. They’ll probably be a good bet in the beginning of the season here.

Denver Broncos (-1) @ Oakland Raiders: (7-16: WINNER!) This was easier than I thought. The Broncos dominated this game like the Eagles dominated the Rams, like the Cowboys smashed the Browns. Denver looked good and the only guy looking better than Jay Cutler last night was his starting rookie receiver, Eddie Royal. This kid is my new favorite player. He’s as quick as any receiver in the league and he’s fearless. Virginia Tech didn’t use him because they didn’t have the quarterback – but Denver does, and watch him blow this league up from the get go.

10-6 – Not a bad start for the good guys!

Fantasy Fun: Ten for Tuesday

Posted on September 2, 2008 by luckylester

I’ve decided to throw out some fantasy advice, free of charge. Every single week I’m going to put some good stuff out for you to mull over in your fantasy minds. The articles will be entitled, “Ten for Tuesday” “One for Wednesday” “Three for Thursday” and “Five for Friday”. Each article will dive into as many fantasy observations as the title insists – 10 on tuesday, 1 on wednesday, and so in and so forth. The observations could, can, and will be anything that crosses my mind as important information. My goal is to sift through the irrelative fantasy junk and give you a few important tidbits prior to Sunday’s roster deadlines – 19 tidbits in fact. Since it is Tuesday, I’m on the books for 10 – good luck.

1. Sitting AP in Week 1: Adrian Peterson goes up against a pretty tough Green Bay Packers defense, and while that won’t be reason to sit him (as you certainly drafted him with your first round pick), the fact that his starting pro-bowl offensive tackle is out with a 4-game suspension might give you a couple second thoughts if you have a couple running backs with better match-ups as your 3rd options (Thomas Jones against the Dolphins, Mike Turner against the Lions for example) you might want to take that shot. I know that most of you won’t, and I’m going to have a hard time doing it in the league I have AP in, but it’s something to consider. Remember there is no player too good for a bad week – and it’s not looking sunny for AP in Green Bay.

2. Running Men in Miami: It’s going to be a run fest in Miami this weekend when Brett Favre and the Jets come to the beach. A lot of people think Brett is going to bring instant passing totals to Jet games, but considering that both the Dolphins and Jets have terrible run-defenses, I can’t see either quarterback putting up much more than 200 yards through the air. Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, Ricky Williams, and Ronnie Brown will all get their chances to shine, and 300+ yards rushing between the four of them won’t surprise me.

3. Welcome to the Barber Shop: Marion Barber is going to beast defenses all season long, and I don’t think he’ll waste time – he’s starting in Week 1. Sure, the Browns added Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams, but I still think Barber will rush for over 100 yards with a couple scores in Cleveland. We’ll see right away how much those huge off-season purchases do – will they change the entire defense? I doubt it, this unit in Cleveland is still sub-par.

4. Mr. Warner’s Neighborhood: It’s official, Kurt Warner has busted Matt Leinart’s bubble by plucking the starting job right out from under him. We heard all along that Warner and Leinart were on even playing ground, but nobody believed it until Kurt was named the starter. Now he goes up against a 49ers defense that he torched for 484 yards last time out. I’m not thinking he’s going for 484 again, but over 300 yards is very likely – so feel free to start him over guys you picked in the first 8 rounds of the draft – it’s not time to pretend you have a better starting option than the former MVP.

5. Earnest goes to New Orleans: Earnest went a lot of places in the 80s and 90s, but I never saw him throwing beads around the streets in New Orleans – this is a new Earnest and you can bet on him doing work against the Saints. I’m sure New Orleans will be better against the run this season, but they still won’t be good. Graham has a nice offensive line and while he’s gone under the radar a bit in the pre-season, he’s still a great option this week.

6. In Orton I Trust: Kyle Orton will outscore half of these quarterbacks in Week 1 – ready, Brett Favre, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, David Garrard, Derrick Anderson, Trent Edwards, Jeff Garcia, and Drew Brees. He’ll have a good game against a Colts secondary that is beginning to look very suspect. Think I’m crazy? You just wait and see.

7. 100% of the time, almost Every Time: If LaDainian Tomlinson doesn’t score a touchdown in Week 1 of the regular season it will be just the second time in his career. That’s right, this scoring machine has visited the end-zone on opening day every single year but once. Can you say consistency? You bet. He has had ups and downs in yardage during week 1, but a running back (or any position) that scores is a guy you want to start. Craziness…

8. 4 INTS for Brady?: Last time Tom Brady played the Chiefs he tossed 4 interceptions in a 16-26 loss. That’s half as many picks as he threw all of last year. That was 2005, sure, but it certainly wasn’t vintage Brady. This week a banged up and likely to be rusty Tom goes up against the Chiefs for the first time since they bruised his ego with all those picks. Will he toss the same number in touchdowns? I’m not sold. Expect a few blunders from the million dollar man – but he’ll figure it out late and pull the Pats out with a win. Just don’t expect that huge vintage 2007 Brady performance.

9. Poor Man’s Reggie Bush?: Don’t buy that crappy scouting tip – Chris Johnson is a smart man’s Reggie Bush. This is why, the Titans didn’t have to spend 50 million bucks or a #2 overall pick on Chris, and he’s going to be better than Reggie. He’s faster and less afriad of contact. He hits the hole with a mission and can catch the ball too. Oh, and he’s faster. His game speed is just as fast as the 4.2 track speed insists. His pro career starts this week against a good Jaguars defense, but he’ll make someone look silly – just don’t miss out, you’ll surely miss a highlight.

10. Selvin Young VS Darren McFadden: Lets put it this way, the yards battle will go to Selvin while the fantasy point title will end in McFadden’s favor. Those that were expecting McFadden to stumble in his rookie campaign can either jump on his bandwagon or be exposed later in the season – he can really run. The Broncos still don’t have an apt defensive line, and that doesn’t bode well for them. What is nice is the fact that Oakland doesn’t have a run-defense either, and this battle of first year starting backs should be fun to watch. Young is a sophomore, but with the starter’s keys in his hands it will be fun to see what he does with them. I like both these guys as starting options in Week 1 with McFadden getting the nod because of his knack for finding the end-zone.

Free NFL Picks: Week 1

Posted on September 2, 2008 by luckylester

I’m back with my free picks. Absolutely free and I’m picking every single game every single week. Last season we tried something a little different and I just couldn’t fall in love with withholding my best picks so I’m just flinging them all out there for you see. I have a lot of road teams in week 1, and while I’m never a huge fan of that, I can’t fluctuate just because the road team looks good in Week 1. Every season is a new one and here’s to hoping this year is a great one. Follow along every week for my free picks… Enjoy the show!

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-3): I don’t like the Giants, so don’t expect this pick to be indicative of my future picks – but how can you not like them to win the opener? Okay, so they lose Strahan and Osi is out for the season -that could definitely have a trickle down draining effect on what became a very good defense. They also lost Gibril Wilson (don’t care) and Kawika Mitchell (good player, but not great). They still have a very good set of corners and a talented offense all around the depth chart. The Redskins could become a solid unit later in the season, but early on I still expect them to make mistakes with their new systems. Jim Zorn is a good coach, and Jason Campbell should flourish under his tutelage, but Zorn is no miracle worker and the Skins should still struggle to find consistency. Osi’s absence won’t hurt the Giants against the run, which is where Washington holds most of their strength. Expect the Giants to grind one out to open the season, and get their first win of the season. I don’t think they’ll make it back to the playoffs, but a Week 1 home game as a 3 point favorite – I’ll take it.

Cincinnati Bengals (pk) @ Baltimore Ravens: I really dislike both of these teams. I didn’t like either much to start with, but then I was basically forced to watch a couple of each team’s pre-season games. Gross. I would say that no team played worse than the Bengals during the pre-season, but I don’t think I could back that up if someone brought up the Ravens. Baltimore never scored more than 16 points in a pre-season game, and the offense seemed to get worse the longer they worked together – putting up 16, 15, 10, and 9 disrespectfully. The Bengals’ 1st team offense looked terrible in each of the three games they made appearances in. Carson Palmer looked lost and their was no timing or flow offensively. Chad Ocho Cinco got hurt, and TJ Houshmandzadeh never played. If I took totals I would roll with the under – but I’m picking sides here and the lesser of two evils is Cincinnati as a pick-em. The Bengals have taken the last three games in this match-up and 6 of their last 7 overall against the Ravens. I also like what Chris Perry brings to their offense – and I know he’s healthy to start this game. In a game where both teams should fight to score, I like the Bengals to win a battle or two.

New York Jets (-3) @ Miami Dolphins: I don’t care that Chad Pennington is playing his old team and really wants to stick it to them. I don’t care that the Jets don’t have a good defense and that their rushing attack sputtered all of last season. I don’t even care about Brett Favre joining the Jets. This is what I care about: The Jets weren’t a terrible team last season. They lost 12 games last season, sure, but seven of those losses came by a touchdown or less. That means they had something. Like I said, Brett’s addition hasn’t wooed me into taking the Jets, but Alan Faneca’s signing has sure helped. The Jets have a pretty good couple of young studs on the o-line, and now they have one of the top 3 guards in the NFL to help them grow. The Fins lost their best tackler (Zach Thomas), their best pass rusher (Jason Taylor), and they’re coming off a 15 loss season that almost made them famous. Yes sir, I don’t care that 70% of the public is on this game, I will be taking the Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs (+17) @ New England Patriots: Honestly, this comes down to two things. I know the Chiefs are going to pound the ball and run clock like it’s their freaking job. I also know that Tom Brady’s injury is worrying me. It’s like he never healed. He’s been sleeping with a gorgeous model and vacationing since his “best team ever” lost the Super Bowl to Little Eli’s Giants, and his ankle is still bothering him. Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure he’ll play, but how important will it be for them to keep him in if the Pats are up two touchdowns late? I just don’t see it and I don’t see the Patriots doing everything they can to put up 50 points a game either. Take the Chiefs if you’re picking this game because there are so many ways the Chiefs can cover a 17 point spread, I don’t even know where to start. I also don’t like the fact that New England went ahead and picked up a bunch of cut-scraps from around the league. I’ve also decided that 17 point favorites aren’t a good value in pro-football. If you are a Patriotic believer, I advise you sit this one out – but if you’re willing to roll with the dog, the Chiefs look like a decent value on the road.

Houston Texans (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Maybe it’s because I’m an old offensive guard, but I have a feeling that Alen Fanneca’s absence will hurt the Steelers just as much as his place in New York will help the Jets. You saw what happened to the Hawks rushing attack when Steve Hutchinson headed to Minnesota, and you saw what the Vikings run-game looked like with Steve manning the left guard spot. Look for the Steelers to be less of a running team than ever before. That will hurt them against a very good Texans pass-rush. And despite the Texans inability to acquire a sure-thing starting running back, I think their offense is a scary group. Schaub will only be better in his second season. Andre Johnson is an absolute best. Owen Daniels is a tough TE to guard. Kevin Walter proved his worth in the second half of last season. Jacoby Jones is talented. And honestly, I really like the duo of Steve Slaton and Chris Taylor – call me crazy, but I do. Pittsburgh has the toughest schedule in the NFL, and this is supposed to be one of their easiest games of the season – but it’s not going to be a pushover. I like the Texans to hold tough if not win outright in Pittsburgh – and that makes me love all those points. The one thing that has me questioning myself is the Texans on the road versus the Steelers at home. The Steelers only lost to the Jaguars in Pittsburgh last season, having their way with most other opponents. The Texans won just two games on the road, versus a bad Panthers team and an even worse Raiders team. They didn’t lose by less than 8 in any of their road losses. I’m not a lover of last years’ numbers, so I’m not changing my pick here – I’m just warning you readers.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (+3): I like the Jaguars to finish the season strong and very possibly take the division from the Colts this year – but I’m not so sure how they’re going to fair in this contest. The Titans are a very tough defense that plays inspired at home. I know the Jaguars are solid, and they’ve looked very good in the pre-season compared to the Titans who have looked absent, but Tennessee as a 3 point dog at home against a beat up Jaguars offense? I can’t find any value in the Jaguars here, so the bet has to go with Tennessee.

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons: This game isn’t going to be a blowout, but I don’t see the Falcons having enough secondary talent to keep the Lions receiving corps out of the end-zone. I like the Falcons more than most, and am not crazy about the Lions – I just don’t think this is a good match-up for Atlanta. The Falcons will find success on the ground, but Detroit will eventually realize that they can pick on the rookie quarterback a little bit – stack the box a lot – and end up winning this game by a touchdown or more. I like Mike Turner a lot and think he will put up some nice yardage totals against the Lions – I just don’t think the Falcons air attack is scary enough and thus the Falcons won’t score enough to take this game. Go with Detroit in this one.

Seattle Seahawks (+1) @ Buffalo Bills: The Seahawks defense is really good. Marcus Trufant is one of the best corners in the league, and I have to think he’ll be able to lockdown Lee Evans. Kelly Jennings will be even better this season, and the Hawks return every single secondary player from last season’s starting group. Deon Grant proved to be a great addition and Bryon Russell does everything well. The Hawks don’t do as well on the road, but going to Buffalo to start the season isn’t as tough as it would be in November, so they should feel lucky. Seattle won’t have either of their projected starters at receiver, as both Branch and Engram are out for the first couple weeks, but a running duo of Maurice Morris and Julius Jones should be enough to do some damage against the Bills defensive front. Also, expect Nate Burleson to have a nice game against a young secondary. The Bills will have too much trouble putting points on the board and the Hawks should walk out of Buffalo with an ugly win in Week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: The Saints aren’t a good home team, they don’t have a good defense, they are going through yet another hurricane in New Orleans, and the Bucs are just flat out better than New Orleans. Sure, Jeff Garcia might be a little rusty after getting barely any action in the pre-season, but he’s a guy that doesn’t make mistakes and is as tough as quarterbacks get. The Bucs offensive line is a very tough group that loves to dig into opposing defenses. The Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 match-ups with the Saints against the spread. Tampa Bay may have an aging defense, but they know how to come out of the gates spry and ready to play.

St. Louis Rams (+8.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles: What can I say? I really like the Rams as a huge dog in Philly. The Eagles aren’t great out of the gates, and they love to take opponents lightly (see team past). They are hurting to start the season without anybody proven to catch the ball besides their running back. The Eagles should still win this game, but it’s coming down to the end. They don’t have a rushing attack powerful enough to run the Rams out of it, and St. Louis can keep it close with a pretty solid run game of their own. They struggled last year, but people need to remember that this is basically the same rushing attack that did a ton of damage in 2006. The Eagles run-defense isn’t good. Don’t believe for a second that picking up a corner for 60 million bucks makes your run-defense stout again. With a spread that seems to be growing by the day, I don’t know if it’s better to wait a little longer or just get it while you can – but i like the Rams at anything 7 points or greater and you can find that everywhere.

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) @ Cleveland Browns: I don’t know if I’m willing to buy the Cowboys as this season’s Super Bowl favorite, but I will tell you that I’m ready to purchase the Browns as this year’s big disappointment. I liken the Browns to New Orleans last year – and this game is going to be a tough one for them. I think Marion Barber is going to be a beast this season, starting in Cleveland with that revamped Browns defense. Yeah, I don’t buy it I guess. I don’t think you can buy a bunch of high-priced free agents and turn your defensive unit from goo to gold – but that’s just me. The Cowboys are going to have a much better defense this season because they absolutely stole an explosive cover man. Sure, Pacman Jones isn’t citizen number one, but while he’s on the football field he’s causing problems for opposing offenses and special teams. Jones is a playmaker and that will be on parade all season long. I’m one of the few guys thinking Pacman isn’t going to slip up anytime soon. Too much to lose, every guy has his epiphany and I think Jones had it. Romo is as good as I thought he’d be and TO is ready to do more than ever. I like the Cowboys to win this game by double digits. I found a great line at BetEd, but I’d still take the Cowboys around -5.

Carolina Panthers (+10) @ San Diego Chargers: I finally think the Panthers might be ready for that next step this season. Ha. It seems like that is said every single year, but I haven’t heard much of that coo-aid this time around. But I kind of like Carolina to put up a battle in this one. The Panthers have shown me throughout the pre-season that they can run the ball with effectiveness as both DeAngelo Williams and rookie running back Jonathan Stewart look solid. I know Steve Smith is out for this game, but DJ Hackett and Mushin Muhammad are two solid options for Delhomme on the outside. The Panthers defense is the unit that looks good to me. Peppers will be better after a down season and Jon Beason is going to be one heck of a linebacker in this league. Look for the Panthers to stay within single digits and give an overhyped Chargers team a run for their money on opening day. Plus, the Panthers are always solid value as a dog – history says that, when healthy, the Panthers are a great dog to take for a walk.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: Look at Kurt Warner’s numbers against the 49ers last season – you laughing yet? If I’m not mistaken, the old man threw for 484 yards in that game. This year, the 49ers are under the giveaway happy Martz philosophy, so that means more scoring chances for the Cardinals. I’m never sold on either of these teams, but I will tell you this, while Martz addition seems to do wonders for fantays teams all across the nation, it doesn’t do much for the prospect of picking his new team against the spread. Over the total? Maybe – but a lot of throwing the ball and not much running only works when you have guys like Randy Moss and Tom Brady – not J.T. O’Sullivan and Josh Morgan. Giving points on the road isn’t always a grand value, but the only value I see in this game is with the Cardinals. They have a more efficient offense and a defense that can make plays.

Chicago Bears (+10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: I found 10.5 in this game and I am that much happier because of it. The Colts defense looked bad during the pre-season, really bad, and while that doesn’t always mean the world is falling, I can’t see it as a good sign of things to come. I’m not sure Peyton will hold up in a bunch of shootouts this season, so I expect the Colts to use their running game early and often. I think Kyle Orton is a relatively mistake free quarterback and that bodes well for the Bears covering as big dogs. I think Chicago will actually run the ball pretty effectively against the Colts, even though the Bears don’t have a stellar offensive line. Indy doesn’t have a lot of help in the secondary, and if they put their corners in a tough spot Chicago will find a way to take advantage – even with Orton and no real #1 receiving threat on the team. Manning will be slow to come back, and despite what he wants you to believe, he’s not 100%. I’ll take the Bears.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-2): The Vikings lost a huge hunk of their rushing attack when the Vikings lost Bryant McKinnie to a 4-game suspension. That won’t help against a great Packer defense. The Packers have the cover corners to put most of their attention on the Vikings rushing attack. That’s not good news for Viking fans. A lot of people like the VIkings in this one, but I think they are ignoring the prospects of back-up offensive tackles going up against Aaron Kampman and the Packer’s linebacking crew. That’s not a good match-up for the Vikings in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers is better than anyone is giving him credit for, but on this team he won’t have to be. Aaron won’t take all the big chances that Brett took, and while he won’t be as flashy or tally up the numbers like #4, he will give the Packers a great chance to win each time he takes the field. Don’t give up on the Packers just because Brett is wearing a different color green.

Denver Broncos (-1) @ Oakland Raiders: This is a tough one for me. I’d like to believe that the Raiders can run all over the Broncos porous rush-defense and that Oakland’s secondary will be a good match-up for Jay Cutler and a receiving corps missing their best player – Brandon Marshall. You know what, I do believe that, and that’s why this game is so tough for me. The think pushing me back over and eventually making me pick the Broncos is the Raiders run defense. What run defense am I talking about? That one that is B-A-D. The Broncos really know how to run the ball, and Selvin Young can get it done in Oakland. JaMarcus Russell won’t take too many chances, but when he does you can bet Champ Bailey and Dre Bly will be there to make him pay for it. Denver’s the better team on opening night, but the Raiders could mature as the season moves forward. Take Denver in this one.

Lucky's List: Predictor's Paradise

Posted on September 1, 2008 by luckylester

There are a few guys in this business that actually throw themselves out there for everyone else to see. I don’t always agree with these guys, but overall they are thoroughly entertaining and, at the very least, accept a little responsibility for their predictions. They don’t just throw out guys like Brandon Marshall and Marshawn Lynch as sleepers – they say things that have everyone in the game second guessing them, saying “no way”, and writing them hate mail that insists they are crazy. But I love it. I love when guys feel something and then put it out before the season begins. On the other hand, I hate when guys claim “I was saying that in the pre-season” without anything to back it up.

Well, as the season moves forward in fantasy football, I’m hoping to quote this article now and again to prove my predictions true. As crazy as some may seem, here they are for all to see. That’s right – 50 big ones for you, you, you, and you. Read my list, check it twice, some of it’s naughty but most of it’s nice…

50 Predictions that Have a GOOD Chance of Coming True

Ricky Williams will have more fantasy points than Ronnie Brown.
Ronnie Brown will still have 1000+ total yards from scrimmage.
Brett Favre will throw multiple touchdowns in each of his first three games.
Shaunna Alexander and Michael Strahan will start a boy-band named, “The Gap-Tooth Goons”
Darren McFadden will rush for over 1100 yards and be a top 15 fantasy running back.
Rashard Mendenhall will rack up more fantasy points than Willie Parker – neither will be Top 15 backs.
Josh Morgan will finish the season with more fantasy points than Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey put together – thank you Mike Martz.
Despite the recent DeSean Jackson hype, Eddie Royal will lead all rookie receivers in the fantasy realm.
If they play the same amount of games (no injuries), Michael Turner will have more rushing yards than LaDainian Tomlinson in 2008.
Tom Brady won’t throw more than 35 touchdowns this season.
Calvin Johnson will eclipse these numbers, 80 catches – 1200 yards – 10 touchdowns (ps: pick him).
Chris Simms will be a starter before the season is over – somewhere not in Tampa.
Devin Hester will score double digit touchdowns for the Bears.
Kyle Orton will be a Top 10 fantasy quarterback in Week 1 against the Colts.
Marion Barber will be a Top 3 fantasy running back.
Steve Smith will have at least 3 multi-touchdown games, eclipse 1100 yards, and easily get into the double digit touchdown category.
Deion Branch will play in at least 12 games and finish in the Top 30 amongst fantasy receivers.
Chris Perry (if you can risk picking the walking wounded) is a great late round pick. He’ll have 1300+ yards from scrimmage and score 7+ touchdowns.
Drew Brees will lead the league in touchdown passes.
(Two of Three) Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, and Tom Brady will miss at least one football game due to injuries.
Thomas Jones will prove to be a better fantasy player than Willie Parker, Reggie Bush, Willis McGahee, and Brandon Jacobs.
Jericho Cotchery will be a Top 14 fantasy receiver.
Antonio Gates will be the top scoring fantasy tight end – don’t believe the bad hype.
Phillip Rivers will throw more touchdown passes than Eli Manning (less interceptions too).
Chris Johnson will lead the Titans in yards (receiving and rushing combined).
Chris Johnson is the NFL’s version of Usain Bolt.
One of the following 6 teams will make the playoffs – Dolphins, Raiders, Bears, Falcons, Cardinals, Rams.
Frank Gore will eclipse 1,500 total yards, 70 receptions, and score 10+ touchdowns.
Kurt Warner will be a Top 10 fantasy quarterback.
Maurice Morris will be a better fantasy back than Julius Jones.
Larry Johnson will rush for 1,300+ yards and score 12+ touchdowns.
Plaxico Burress will play in less than 11 games.
The Giants will finish the season under .500.
Chris Taylor will lead the Houston Texans in rushing yards and scores.
Anthony Gonzalez will have a similar year (give or take a few fantasy points) to Brandon Stokely a few years ago when he played with the Colts – 1077 yards, 68 catches, 10 touchdowns.
During the fantasy playoffs (week’s 14-16) Adrian Peterson (Vikings) will have more yards and touchdowns than any other running back.
The Patriots will win 13 games during the regular season.
Ryan Torrain will start at least 5 games for the Broncos later this season.
Chad Johnson will lead the NFL in receiving yards despite his shoulder ouchy.
Vince Young will throw more touchdowns than interceptions.
Lee Evans will score 10+ touchdowns.
Bernard Berrien will have his best receiving totals of his career – yards, catches, and touchdowns.
Wes Welker won’t match last season’s totals, he’ll eclipse them – (yards and touchdowns for sure).
Ben Watson will be a Top 12 tight end.
Four rookie running backs will rush for over 1000 yards (I’m thinking Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Kevin Smith – but keep your eye on Ryan Torrain, Jonathan Stewart, and Rashard Mendenhall.
The Eagles will not have a 1000 yard receiver – but they’ll still win 10 games.
Donovan McNabb will be a Top 5 fantasy quarterback.
Jake Delhomme will finish in the Top 8 amongst QBs.
Leon Washington will score at least 6 touchdowns while having at least 3 games with 100+ yards (receiving and rushing combined)
Barrack Obama will become president in one of the most lopsided elections in recent history.

There you have it, dig it, disagree with it, recognize it – just get ready for me to gloat when prediction becomes truth – I’ll keep tabs so you don’t have to!

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