Tag Archives: Larry Fitzgerald

2009 Fantasy Football Tiered Player Rankings: Lucky Lester’s Top 220

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I’m back again with yet another fantasy article, this one rates out my top 220 players for this season and this season only. I’ve already busted out a dynasty chart (without rookies) for the next three years, you could check that out here. It’s an older article, and while some things have changed, that look should give you a decent view of the future if you find yourself in a dynasty league late this fall – but remember, it happened before the draft, and thus is without rookies, a valuable resource in dynasty leagues.

I’ve also spent a little time busting out some tiered rankings for each position, hopefully helping you on draft day – check that out here. I’m breaking these down into tiers as well, because a ranking list is nothing without a little crying game. Also, looking at my final rankings and my earlier tiered rankings, you’ll see some small differences. Why? Well, that’s because things happen over a month that give me reason to move players up and down. Nothing is concrete!

When I rank players, I’m not saying, “this is going to be the final points standings at years’ end”, no, I’m saying that this is the order of value, fantasy points, and upside going into draft day, a sort of cheat sheet to help you assess value on D-Day. Hope this helps!

First Tier

1.	Adrian Peterson – Favre signing just enough to get him on top.
2.	Maurice Jones Drew
3.	Matt Forte
4.	Michael Turner – I might not be giving him enough credit, looks great!

Second Tier

5.	LaDainian Tomlinson
6.	Steve Slaton
7.	Frank Gore
8.	Andre Johnson
9.	Larry Fitzgerald
10.	DeAngelo Williams – J-Stew’s injury woes has Williams moving up.
11.	Steven Jackson
12.	Chris Johnson
13.	Randy Moss – Randy is Tom’s favorite weapon.
14.	Brian Westbrook

Third Tier

15.	Steve Smith
16.	Calvin Johnson
17.	Clinton Portis – All four of these backs are great value picks…
18.	Ronnie Brown - …
19.	Ryan Grant - …
20.	Brandon Jacobs – His O-line is the stuff championships are made of.
21.	Marion Barber
22.	Tom Brady
23.	Drew Brees

Forth Tier

24.	Anquan Boldin – Best #2 in the league.
25.	Reggie Wayne – Still one of the best with one of the best tossing him balls.
26.	Greg Jennings
27.	Darren McFadden – all the talent in the world, lots of touches.
28.	Roddy White
29.	Terrell Owens
30.	Marques Colston

Fifth Tier

31.	Marshawn Lynch
32.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Housh looks like a 115 catch guy to me.
33.	Eddie Royal – Marshall moves down, Eddie moves up!
34.	Vincent Jackson
35.	Dwayne Bowe
36.	Derrick Ward – A pretty risky pick considering RB talent in Tampa Bay.
37.	Larry Johnson
38.	Knowshon Moreno – I still believe!
39.	Wes Welker
40.	Jason Witten

Sixth Tier

41.	Reggie Bush
42.	Joseph Addai – Running with something to prove, should be decent.
43.	Chad Johnson
44.	Anthony Gonzalez – This guy is crafty.
45.	Pierre Thomas
46.	Roy Williams
47.	Kurt Warner
48.	Peyton Manning
49.	DeSean Jackson – Has looked better in year 2, moving up my list.
50.	Aaron Rodgers
51.	Phillip Rivers
52.	Antonio Gates
53.	Tony Romo
54.	Donovan McNabb
55.	LenDale White
56.	Felix Jones
57.	Thomas Jones
58.	Julius Jones – No love for JJ, I think he’ll be solid.
59.	Ray Rice
60.	Dallas Clark
61.	Tony Gonzalez

Seventh Tier

62.	Matt Schaub – Please stay healthy and prove me right!
63.	Lee Evans
64.	Bernard Berrien – Brett at least gives Berrien more flavor.
65.	Matt Hasselbeck – Matt’s moving up my list.
66.	Santana Moss
67.	Braylon Edwards
68.	Jonathan Stewart – Many upside here.
69.	Jamal Lewis – His offense may be terrible, but his O-line is solid.
70.	Tim Hightower
71.	Carson Palmer – Hurt again?
72.	Lance Moore
73.	Beanie Wells
74.	Jay Cutler – Looked better than I thought he would, but still not top notch.
75.	Chris Cooley
76.	Matt Ryan – I’m not believing 25+ touchdowns in year 2.
77.	Brandon Marshall – I hear he’s having some problems.

Eighth Tier

78.	Leon Washington – I think he’ll be used more this season.
79.	Cedric Benson
80.	Willie Parker
81.	Hines Ward
82.	Owen Daniels
83.	Greg Olsen
84.	Santonio Holmes
85.	Jericho Cotchery
86.	Antonio Bryant
87.	Devin Hester – Hasn’t shown much in the pre-season, should change though.

Ninth Tier

88.	David Garrard
89.	Matt Cassel
90.	Kellen Winslow – has yet to catch a ball in the pre-season.
91.	Torry Holt
92.	Rashard Mendenhall
93.	Ben Roethlisberger
94.	Donald Brown
95.	Jerious Norwood – One of the best back-up backs in the league.
96.	Darren Sproles
97.	Ahmad Bradshaw – looks really good in the pre-season.
98.	John Carlson
99.	Kyle Orton
100.	Nate Burleson – people are forgetting about him, do.
101.	Donnie Avery – Should be healthy by week one, #1 receiver late.
102.	Derrick Mason – old and good, not unlike the guy right below.
103.	Donald Driver

Tenth Tier

104.	Trent Edwards – Like him with Lee and TO out wide.
105.	Fred Jackson
106.	Kevin Walter
107.	Brett Favre – Hmmm…. I wonder.
108.	Zach Miller
109.	Dominik Hixon
110.	Cadillac Williams – Looked good to me, hope he gets more touches.
111.	LeSean McCoy
112.	Nate Washington – Better than people know, hurt early, good late pick.
113.	Joe Flacco
114.	Josh Morgan
115.	Daunte Culpepper – If the job was his, guarantee, I’d rank him higher.
116.	Chad Pennington
117.	Jason Campbell
118.	Ted Ginn Jr. – Super fast WR coming into his own.
119.	Steve Breaston
120.	Chris Henry – Yes, the #3 is ranked higher than the #2.
121.	Vinsanthe Shiancoe
122.	Earnest Graham
123.	Laveranues Coles
124.	Percy Harvin
125.	Jabar Gaffney
126.	Michael Crabtree – This guy is a soap opera already.
127.	Tony Scheffler
128.	Dustin Keller
129.	Fred Taylor
130.	Kenny Britt – Moving on up, lots of talent.
131.	Kevin Curits – Not sure if his upside is high enough for me to get late.
132.	Correll Buckhalter
133.	Jake Delhomme
134.	Jeremy Shockey
135.	Willis McGahee
136.	Chester Taylor
137.	Michael Bush
138.	Shaun Hill
139.	Eli Manning
140.	James Davis
141.	Shonn Greene – Like his talent, just don’t like 3rd RBs too much.
142.	JaMarcus Russell – has looked solid so far this pre-season.
143.	Le’Ron McClain
144.	Sammy Morris
145.	Justin Forsett

Eleventh Tier

146.	Laurence Maroney
147.	Tashard Choice
148.	Marc Bulger
149.	Chaz Schillens – hurt early, but looks good to me.
150.	Patrick Crayton
151.	Michael Clayton
152.	Isaac Bruce
153.	Joey Galloway
154.	Mark Clayton
155.	Earl Bennett ¬– Not sure he is fast enough.
156.	Maurice Stovall – Could be in line for starting duties.
157.	Brady Quinn
158.	Bobby Engram
159.	Vernon Davis
160.	Mohammad Massoquoi
161.	Peyton Hillis
162.	Hakeem Nicks
163.	Jeremy Maclin – The speedster might be a nice second half pick-up.
164.	Mark Sanchez
165.	Glen Coffee
166.	Steve Smith (NYG)
167.	Chris Chambers
168.	Anthony Fasano
169.	Jamaal Charles
170.	Mike Bell
171.	Sidney Rice
172.	Edgerrin James
173.	Ricky Williams
174.	Troy Williamson – Has the speedster finally arrived?
175.	Deion Branch
176.	Justin Fargas
177.	Brandon Petitgrew
178.	Laurent Robinson – liked him better than Mike Jenkins in ATL too.
179.	Michael Jenkins
180.	Mushin Muhammad
181.	Kevin Boss
182.	Malcom Kelly
183.	Brent Celek
184.	David Clowney – Becoming number two?
185.	Mark Bradley
186.	Miles Austin
187.	Bo Scaife
188.	Ladell Betts
189.	JerMichael Finley
190.	Chris Brown – could be a TD stealer, but I doubt it.
191.	Devone Bess
192.	DeShawn Wynn
193.	Mike Walker
194.	James Jones
195.	Dominic Rhodes
196.	Pierre Garcon
197.	Jordy Nelson
198.	Michael Vick – In deep leagues, maybe?
199.	Limas Sweed – Nate Washington’s targets?
200.	Antwan Randel-El
201.	Deon Butler
202.	Kevin Jones
203.	Jonnie Lee Higgins
204.	Heath Miller
205.	Marion Manningham
206.	Robert Meachem
207.	Brian Robiskie
208.	Chase Coffman
209.	Todd Heap
210.	Brandon Jackson – Could be #2 still, had a tough camp.
211.	Byron Leftwich
212.	Matthew Stafford
213.	Kerry Collins
214.	Sage Rosenfels – So much for sleeper, thanks Brett!
215.	Matt Leinart
216.	Vince Young
217.	Chad Henne
218.	Samkon Gado
219.	Bernard Scott
220.	Tarvaris Jackson – Mr. Irrelevant could play well if he gets the chance.

The Value of Opportunity

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Football, perhaps more than any other sport, is all about opportunity.  At the highest level the separation between stars and scrubs is often not a measure of talent but rather the chance players are given to put that talent on display.  For every Peyton Manning that was drafted into stardom there is a Tom Brady that toiled in obscurity until they got their shot (thank you, Drew Bledsoe).  As an avid fantasy footballer, part of what I try to do in building winning teams is to assess players not only on what they have done (given their opportunity), but what they could do if given the chance.  Historically sleepers are identified from one season to the next by determining which players’ values will take a spike due to either an increased role, a change of scenery, or an improved surrounding cast.  This logic seems sound in a lot of ways but it also leaves a lot to chance.  If I’m taking a shot on a guy in the mid-to-late rounds of my draft, I want to know that given the opportunity he will put points on the board.  Perhaps the best predictor of what a player is capable of with the ball in their hands is FPT or Fantasy Points per Touch.  Depending on the scoring of your league, you should have an idea which guys do the most with what they are given and then look for individuals in that group who may take advantage of an improved situation in the upcoming season.  The following lists of FPT all-stars compared to their top-tier peers are based on a standard PPR league for the 2009 season.  Call them sleepers if you want, but these are the guys you can trust to make the most of their opportunities when given the chance.

Quarterbacks

Top-Tier Peers:

Philip Rivers – .66 FPT
Drew Brees – .55 FPT
Peyton Manning – .52 FPT
Kurt Warner – .51 FPT
Jay Cutler – .46 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Shaun Hill – .50 FPT – I know he’s not sexy, but Shaun Hill wins football games and I have to think that when the chips are down Mike Singletary would rather have him behind center than an aging vet or an unproven rookie if the Niners go that route in April.  Young wideout Josh Morgan keeps getting better and I wouldn’t be surprised to see San Francisco go WR early when the draft rolls around or make a play on Torry Holt or Anquan Boldin if and when they come available.  If he wins the gig (and I think he will) and plays a full season, you’ll look like a genius for nabbing Hill with one of the last picks in the draft while others reached for a big name QB early.

Trent Edwards – .40 FPT – The career path of quarterbacks that have played with TO can’t be ignored.  Yes, he’s a pain in the ass … yes, he does topless crunches in his driveway while fielding questions from reporters … yes, he has the emotional maturity of a jock strap … but … Jeff Garcia went to three Pro Bowls throwing him the rock, Donovan McNabb had the best season of his career when TO was flying like an Eagle, and Tony Romo bacame a household name (and landed some hotties) during Owens’ time in big D.  Edwards is already a very accurate passer and has displayed good intangibles with only a couple seasons under his belt.  I anticipate a BIG step forward for the Stanford alum in the upcoming season.

Tarvaris Jackson – .56 FPT – The only thing standing between T-Jack and fantasy production is one Bradford Childress.  There aren’t many men I detest more than the software engineer currently running the show in Minnesota.  When given the opportunity Jackson has made strides toward becoming a viable NFL starting quarterback (see his 95.4 QB rating and 9-2 TD-INT ratio in limited action last season).  For reasons beyond my comprehension the Viking’s brass wants to hand the reigns to the walking turnover that is Sage Rosenfels.  When that fails miserably and the Vikes stumble out of the gates, make sure Jackson isn’t floating out on your league’s free agent list and he will reward you with above average production.

Running Backs

Top-Tier Peers:

Maurice Jones-Drew – 1.02 FPT
Brian Westbrook – .92 FPT
LaDainian Tomlinson – .77 FPT
Michael Turner – .71 FPT
Adrian Peterson – .66 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Pierre Thomas – 1.12 FPT – When Thomas took over the reigns for the injured (again) Reggie Bush and aging Deuce McAllister, the Saints offense didn’t miss a beat.  In fact, the guy that played in front of Rashard Mendenhall at Illinois took full advantage of his opportunity down the stretch last season and carried many fantasy owners to their respective championships.  Thomas proved to be a dynamic all-around threat as he displayed a nose for the goaline as well as above-average receiving skills out of the backfield.  Rumors have been swirling as they always do this time of year, but barring a reunion between Drew Brees and LT in the Big Easy, Thomas looks to be the guy to own in the Saint’s backfield heading forward.

Felix Jones – 1.41 FPT – How did Arkansas not win a national championship with Jones and Darren McFadden in their backfield?  I’m pretty sure I could have coached that team to 11 wins using a Tecmo Bowl playbook.  This silky smooth sophomore was putting up HUGE numbers with his limited chances early in the season before suffering a hamstring injury that translated into what was essentially a lost season.  Never fear, reports out of Dallas are that Jerry Jones wants to hand a bigger portion of the workload to Jones to help keep sledgehammer Marion Barber fresh.  The loss of the Tuman Oeadache also means the Cowboys will rely more on the ground game this season.  Don’t expect Jones to keep averaging nearly a point and a half per touch, but 950 yards and 8 touchdowns with contributions in the passing game and special teams is well within his reach.

Ahmad Bradshaw – .67 FPT – This one may be a stretch for some of you, but when I look around the league at muddy backfield situations in Denver, New England and Baltimore, you could do a lot worse than nabbing this diminutive fireball in the mid-to-late rounds of your league’s draft.  Bradshaw will be 23 at the start of the season, and he has averaged 6.1 YPC for his career in a limited role with the G-Men.  Derrick Ward’s breakout season stunted his growth last year, but word out of Giants camp is that the coaching staff is excited to see what Bradshaw can do with an increased role this year.  Translation: this guy could reward savvy owners with 800-900 yards and handful of touchdowns.  Brandon Jacobs is a bruiser but he doesn’t catch passes and he doesn’t stay healthy for full seasons … look for Bradshaw to open some eyes this year.

Wide Receivers

Top-Tier Peers:

Calvin Johnson – 3.38 FPT
Greg Jennings – 3.23 FPT
Larry Fitzgerald – 3.19 FPT
Roddy White – 2.89 FPT
Andre Johnson – 2.71 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Vincent Jackson – 3.30 FPT – Jackson’s size and speed combo served as a frustration to his owners in his first three seasons in the NFL.  Surely a guy with his physical gifts would dominate the league … it was just a matter of time.  Well, fantasy owners are not known for their patience but dynasty leaguers that held on to Jackson during his steady upward trends early in his career reaped the rewards of a very quietly productive season in 2008.  A physical freak at 6’5″ 230 lbs with a lightning quick explosion off the line and tremendous leaping ability, Jackson is a nightmare matchup for opposing defenses.  Another year in the saddle for Philip Rivers and the emergence of Jackson as a legitimate red zone threat could result in a top-5 WR next season for those that call his number on draft day.

Steve Breaston – 2.40 FPT – This is me saying I don’t think Boldin is coming back to the Cards.  Nobody (including the Cardinal’s front office as evidenced by the selection of Early Doucet last April) saw this second year man from Michigan ascending to the ranks of fantasy relevance before last season.  When Boldin exits stage east (hello Philly?), Breaston will step into his vacated spot opposite Larry Fitzgerald.  With the attention the braided one will command on the other side, Kurt Warner and Breaston will be free to carve up opposing defenses between the 20s.  Double-digit touchdowns may be a bit optimistic with the variety of weapons at Warner’s disposal, but 90 catches and 1,200 yards is well within reach for this dynamic speedster.  Invest.

Lee Evans – 2.80 FPT – Uncertainty at the quarterback position and a lack of talent around him have hurt Evans’ production throughout his NFL career.  Despite these limiting factors, the supremely talented former Badger has never missed a game and has never averaged less than 15 yards per catch in any of his five seasons.  Enter TO … with the flamboyant prima donna drawing the attention of defenses and media outlets alike, Evans will be freed up to work over the top without facing the double and triple teams that have held his stats in check thus far.  Another point to consider … Lee’s numbers have never been about quantity but QUALITY of his catches (averaging less than 60 catches per season) … TO commanding 80-90 balls will not cut into his value as some have speculated.  I anticipate a HUGE season for Evans in the 75-80 catch neighborhood with 1,400 yards and double digit touchdowns for the first time in his career.

first published on March 10, 2009

Ask Papa Weimer: Pre-Season #2

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I’m back. More questions, seemingly better answers than before. This week we tackle auction drafts, the 1st Round wide receiver situation, and the “lack” of running backs – and even Brett Favre. It’s late and my knees are acting up, I’ll try my best not to take it out on the question askers. But that doesn’t mean all that BS about no question being a stupid question is true – there are tons of stupid questions – try me next week.

Graham “Big Worm” from Lower Columbia, WA asks, “What is your take on Brett Favre. The guy gets more coverage than an Anna Kournikova sex tape, which quite honestly chaps my ass, but if he can play he should play, right?” From a fantasy perspective should I dump Trent Edwards, my current back-up, and snatch up the old man?

You got it right on the button Big Worm. The way I see it is pretty simple. Brett Favre threw around retirement like he throws underhand backwards pitches to running backs. He wasn’t quite sure, but didn’t want the Packers relying on him being around so he called it quits, thinking that if he wanted to come back they would obviously welcome him with open arms. The trick was on him. The Packers decided to go with Aaron Rodgers (good move, because the youngster is legit) and did all they could to convince Favre to stay retired, even going as far as offering him money to do nothing. I’m not positive, but I bet that pissed Ol’ Brett off something fierce and it probably made him want to play even more. But the Packers didn’t want to face Brett, and trading him within their own division to help an opponent out made absolutely no sense to them. But Brett’s a competitor, so surely, right off the bat, he wanted to play against his former team and jam it right up their backside. Since he couldn’t, he toughed out a year in Jet-land, gave it all he had, ups and downs, just missed the playoffs, and thus retired again. Giving him exactly what he wanted, the Jets released his rights. That gave Favre the freedom to play wherever he wanted. Brett’s not the first guy to run right back to his old division and sign up with a rival. When let go, lots of guys take it personally, and some have even been known to give up some money for a couple chances a year at their old team. I think that’s freaking awesome. So now he’s in Minnesota and he’s going to give it his all to try and make the Vikings a championship level team. Will he? I’m not sure either way, but I’ll be watching, that’s for damn sure. Now a bunch of people are pissed that he retired and came back and retired and came back, but those people are stupid. Some people think it’s terrible that he went to the Packers’ rival. But it’s that same competitive spirit that made him as great a player as he is. So those people aren’t thinking past go either. Basically, I like it. If he wants to play, can play, and can get someone to pay him to do so, by all means, play until your shriveled up my man!!! As for all the coverage. Blah. I’m sick of it, and my TV is out. I can only imagine how you feel. Fantasy-wise, of course he’s going to have some value. That team is pretty stacked. Peterson is obviously a beast. Berrian has elite speed and Brett can get him the ball. Percy Harvin is dynamite. Even Shiancoe is a solid TE. That line will keep Brett standing. So all things look good except all those rushing attempts should keep him from big yardage. But he’ll still a decent back-up. However, I’d stick with Edwards. I know you don’t have much time, but Edwards is in that new hurry up, with lots of passing, two very good receivers, and some running backs that are solid catching out of the back-field. He’s very accurate, and you never know, this could be a big breakout year for him. But it’s close to a wash, so if you’re feeling one way, go with your gut. I have to listen to my gut, the thing is enormous.

Paul the Perv writes, “I’m in an auction draft and I was wondering if there’s any plan of attack that you try in these kind of drafts? I’m brand new to them and I’m not sure if nominating a guy gives me a better or worse chance in getting him on my team. Any ideas?”

Why are all Paul’s pervs? Hopefully your last name is Pervis or something like that, or maybe you’re just cleverly named as a common man. Regardless, I have answers to your dilemma. I’ve found all auction drafts to be a little different, and have become a big fan of them over the last few years. What I’ve found works best is nominating high-hype guys early in the draft. Guys that you think are a little overrated and currently getting loved on by the public. Now usually what this will do is get your league-mates to overpay for these overvalued players, leaving you with good money to get good value. That’s always my goal. Now sometimes I do this and as it turns out, everyone believes me that a guy is overrated and I end up bidding on the guy because his new value is much better. I almost never cross a guy off my list, everyone has value, but my goal is to make people overpay so I can underpay. Guys like Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Drew Brees, and Larry Fitzgerald are all guys I’d love to have, but they are all getting overvalued. (Even my nephew ranks Forte #2, which I think is too high) So if it was up to me, I’d call their names early if I got the chance, and see if I can’t get people overpaying for services. Hope that helps Perv!

Too Tall Tom from Onalaska asks, “I know you’re a big running back guy in the first couple rounds, but every year is different, is it okay for me to go WR in the first couple rounds this year?”

Sure man, in fact, I think going WR as early as 6th overall isn’t too ridiculous this season. Once you get out of that top tier of running backs, there’s a lot of equality there. And while I don’t buy this whole “the receiver cupboard is bare” BS that seems to be milling around draft rooms, I do think that there is a quick drop-off from elite to good to worth a shot. There are seemingly hundreds of receivers worth a shot. There’s a lot of guys I’d consider good options. But there’s very few ELITE #1s out there. Not enough for everyone to have a couple, that’s for sure. With RBs, there’s a lot of guys that I would be fine starting, and I’m talking about guys you can get in rounds 3-8. So, I’ve had some drafts in which I went WR early, the earliest being the 6th. I had Steve Slaton as my next best RB available, but he wasn’t too far ahead of a lot of the solid backs left, so I went with Larry Fitz and his elite consistency and overall numbers. On the way back (it was a 10 team league, which are the ideal type of leagues to go WR early) I still got Steve Slaton. With my 3rd pick I grabbed Steve Smith, and with my 4th pick I went with Kevin Smith, another guy we like here within the fantasy staff. So I got two number 1 receivers, and two young running backs that had solid years and possess lots of upside. If I went RB with my first two picks, I wouldn’t be much better in my backfield, but I would be worse at WR. That’s the kind of thing you have to think about during the draft, where’s the value? Sure, I went WR a lot earlier than usual. But I got the guy I think is the best player at that position – at a position with fewer elite players. So yes, in short, sometimes it’s good to be different.

Noah, from “just outside the ark” thinks out loud, “All the things I read are saying that WR is shallow this year and RBs are deep, do you actually believe this?”

No, and yes. I don’t believe that either position is actually shallow, but in a way, both are kind of shallow in the “elite” category. In years’ past there are lots of guys getting 80% of their team’s carries, at least. This year, there are fewer of those type running backs. Fewer proven carry-horses. So that makes getting one of those main guys a bonus, if you can. At WR you have the same type of thing, lots of guys with lots of upside, but not so many guys that can get drafted without at lest a little question mark by their production. Now nothing is guaranteed. Vince Young could get pouty in Week 1, feel bad that people are booing him, and never start another game the rest of the year. But those crazy things being written off as just crazy, I think you can find great options all over the draft at any of these positions. Would I rather have Roddy White, Larry Fitz, and Andre Johnson than Dominik Hixon, Anthony Gonzalez, and Nate Burelson? You bet. But should all 6 guys be owned? Definitely. Could all 6 be starter worthy during the year? You bet. I actually think, that with all the “sharing is caring” going around the NFL, having specialty players do certain things, carry in certain situations, and having 3 and 4 WRs, this is actually one of the “deepest” seasons in fantasy football that I’ve ever researched and took part in. There are so many players at all the positions, even TE has a grip of valuable guys. I got Tim Hightower and Julius Jones as 4th and 5th running backs, in rounds 11 and 12, for a league I’m in. That’s two starters. Hightower is young and scores touchdowns, and even though Beanie Wells is there, he’s still starting. And Julius Jones is in a scheme that should use his running ability well, and he’s done well when getting 20 carries a game. So while they are not starters in terms of top fantasy backs, they are still two actual NFL starters that could produce for me this season. Don’t believe the hype, shallow and deep are very arbitrary, especially this year.

2009 Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers

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Wide receivers and their tiers are very important on draft day. Because of the up and down ways of the position, their reliance on many other positions, the break out candidates in comparison to the every-year studs, and their overall effectiveness on a weekly basis, tiers are the only way to rank this position. Often times the guy ranked 20th and the guy ranked 40th are so close in production (both in predictions and actual numbers) that reaching for receivers – after the top ranked guys are gone – is as ridiculous as taking a defense in the 8th round. Follow the tiers, and get who you want, but overpaying for a “hopeful” could hinder you all season long. I’ve also took into account “upside” which I think is very important with a receiver. Taking late chances on guys with upside makes more sense than a sure thing 500 yard 4 touchdown guy. Believe me. Good luck!

I

  1. Andre Johnson (1)
  2. Larry Fitzgerald (2)
  3. Randy Moss (3)

I would love one of these three. Andre is a beast, I’ve always been fond of him, and Larry Fitzgerald laughs in the face of the double team. Randy Moss has his quarterback back, and while the all time TD season for receivers probably won’t be repeated, somewhere in the teens seems likely, and that’s an awesome year for pretty much any player. I do like AJ as my #1, that offense will be that much better this season. Plus Larry Fitz is on the cover of Madden, that moves him out of the top spot right there. Believe it!

II

  1. Steve Smith (4)
  2. Calvin Johnson (5)

Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson are very close to my top tier and also very close to the next 4 guys, but that puts them right smack dab in their own little tier. Smith has all the ability in the world and a quarterback that loves to throw him the ball. The problem is, there really isn’t a #2 receiving threat on that team, so everything Steve does is watched with a careful eye. That being said, he’s probably the most dangerous receiver in the game, because he still does work. Calvin Johnson is a freak of nature, and if he were on any team with a better passing attack than Detroit, I’d value him higher. One of these days he’s going to be the best receiver in the game, I just don’t think we’re quite there yet.

III

  1. Anquan Boldin (6)
  2. Greg Jennings (7)
  3. Roddy White (8)
  4. Reggie Wayne (9)

Anquan Boldin was originally behind Jennings and White on my list, but looking into his game moves him up for me. Sure, there’s injury concern there, but only because the guy does everything and catches anything thrown close to him. You know Kurt Warner will feed him the ball, and if Bolding gets touches and stays healhty, he’s a Top 5 guy, so I moved him up. Greg Jennings and Roddy White are guys I predict to finish just a hair behind Boldin this season. Both have great young quarterbacks, a physical receiving style, and tricky speed that gets them behind defenders game after game. These two guys will be great #1 options this season. The only thing bringing them to my 3rd tier is the way I see their offenses changing a bit. Some of Roddy’s touches will go to Tony Gonzalez and Harry Douglas (the talented #3 in Atlanta) and I doubt Ryan Grant will rush for just 4 TDs this season, meaning a couple of those might come out of Jennings’ stats. Still, both these guys are legit #1’s. I love Reggie Wayne, and so does Peyton Manning, who last time I checked is a really good quarterback. And I think he will be a legit #1 this season, however, for the first time in a long time, I’m not sure about the Colts. That’s right, Peyton had his own questions this off-season, and despite claims that all looks peachy, questions are rarely a good thing. Will Reggie struggle? No, I don’t think so, but just thinking about change drops him a bit in my list.

IV

  1. Brandon Marshall (10)
  2. Terrell Owens (11)
  3. Marques Colston (12)
  4. Dwayne Bowe (13)

Brandon Marshall maybe be all clown, but the kid can run with and catch a football with the best of them. You know the Broncos are going to throw the rock, and I know they are going to get double digit TDs from Marshall. I can only imagine that Marshall becomes the Randy Moss of the Broncos offense, and that will put him in the Top 10. TO may be in Buffalo where apparently “they have no offense” but I’m sold on him being in the Top 15 at seasons end, even though he’s collecting years well into his 30s and plays in icy Buffalo. Edwards is an accurate passer, the O-line looks more cohesive this season, Lee Evans is a game breaker on the opposite side, this is the best receiving partner TO has had in a while now. The running game is legit for the Bills. I see a nice year from the drama king, but I’m not sure he’ll be a Top 10 guy. Colston is a beast, catches everything, has great body control and can run. His coach is a not to be trusted with talent. I love Colston and he’ll probably have a big year, but there’s questions there that drop him into my 4th tier. Dwayne Bowe has tons of talent, is going to be one of the leagues best receivers in the next few years, but I think the KC offense struggles a little bit this season. Matt Cassel is supposed to have all the answers, but I’m not so sure they’ll be this season. New coach, new QB, new schemes – could be great, but lots of ifs.

V

  1. TJ Houshmandzadeh  (14)
  2. Eddie Royal (15)
  3. Wes Welker (16)
  4. Vincent Jackson (17)
  5. Roy Willians (18)

I love TJ going to Seattle, but only if Hasselbeck is healthy all season. Big question. Still, if Housh can put up the numbers he did last season in Cinci where the whold circus seemed to be going down around him, I think he’ll be just fine in Seattle. His reception total should get up around 100. Eddie Royal is going to play the Wes Welker role, and I have to be honest, I like his talent more than Wes. I also think Orton will be looking for him because Royal catches everything and runs brilliant routes. Wes Welker has his main QB back, and even last year Welker was a catch machine. More touchdowns than ’08 move him into my Top 20. Vincent Jackson will be more consistent this season than he was last. I see him catching at least 70 balls which will get him up aroudn 1200 yards or more. Rivers is solid, that running game keeps the defense’s attention, Jackson will move up the charts. Roy Williams is my biggest risk in my 5th tier, but the guy has great hands and all the speed in the world. He runs duck-footed, which scares me a bit, but Tony Romo is a great QB, that running game is tough with 3 good runners, and Jason Witten will get enough attention to give Roy room to work. He’ll have a good ’09.

VI

  1. Chad “Johnson” Ochocinco (19)
  2. Anthony Gonzalez (20)
  3. Lee Evans (21)
  4. Lance Moore (22)
  5. Braylon Edwards (23)

If you’re a veteren reader of my rankings, you’ll know that I was never a huge fan of Chad Johnson’s up and down weeks that always seemed to compile good year-long numbers. He’s a very talented receiver with a quarterback that possesses all the tools, and TJ’s not around to compete with Ocho as a #1 target. However, he’s streaky, he’s a little bit of a personality question mark, and I’m still ranking him higher than most sites. Will he be a Top 10? I think those years are over, but in the Top 20, you bet. Anthony Gonzalez should come into his own this year. As the sure-fire #2 and with Marvin gone, and the fact that Anthony was always very productive with Marvin out, Gonzalez is going to have a nice year. I have him ranked higher than most. Lee Evans may get some targets taken away from him, but no longer will he be constantly swarmed with double teams. TO, if anything, takes that away. Less targets but less attention could mean one of Lee’s biggest seasons. Lance Moore is getting absolutely NO love from the fantasy world. After a huge breakout season where he basically became Brees’ top option in New Orleans, I’ve seen Lance sit around 40. I guess I’m buying into what last season sold, call me a believer in Moore’s hands. Braylon Edwards showed lots of potential a couple seasons ago. But the Browns have fallen hard, and his drops have played a big role. This season he will be in a Man-Jina offensive system, but only if he gets in shape and doesn’t get into the dog house. I think he’ll be solid, but selecting him is high risk and possibly very high reward.

VII

  1. Hines Ward (24)
  2. Antonio Bryant (25)
  3. Torry Holt (26)
  4. Bernard Berrien (27)
  5. Santana Moss (28)
  6. Santonio Holmes (29)
  7. DeSean Jackson (30)
  8. Jericho Cotchery (31)
  9. Dominik Hixon (32)
  10. Devin Hester (33)
  11. Laveranues Coles (34)
  12. Derrick Mason (35)
  13. Donald Driver (36)
  14. Kevin Walter (37)
  15. Josh Morgan (39)

Alright, I can’t talk about every single guy left on the list, but these guys are all very useable players. People say receiver is a shallow position this year, I think that’s a joke. I just think that there’s not much value in drafting any of the guys not in the Top 23 early. Wait, relax, breathe, and you might find a late steal on guys that fill out your receiver position like Santana Moss, Torry Holt, Jericho Cotchery, DeSean Jackson, Dominik Hixon, Devin Hester, and even sure thing performers like Mason and Driver, not to mention a load of young guys getting a chance to prove themselves this year. The people that think Hester won’t improve at all in his 2nd year at playing receiver are just plain crazy. Even without Cutler the guy would get better, Jay is just an added rocket fire arm bonus. Hixon is getting no love at all, and I think he’ll be the top Giant receiver, easily. Holt could be great in Jacksonville, I mean sure, he’s old, but he’s always open and Garrard and the Jags have never had a receiver with his type of talent – could be a nice year to take a chance on the wiley old vet. Josh Morgan? Face it, Royal and Morgan would have destroyed college football if they had a QB that could throw in college. Morgan is going to be the top receiving option in SF too. There’s options here, they just aren’t top notch guys, but I would love to have a couple of these guys on my squad.

VIII

  1. Hakeem Nicks (40)
  2. Steve Breaston (41)
  3. Ted Ginn Jr. (42)
  4. Deion Branch (43)
  5. Earl Bennett (44)
  6. Michael Crabtree (45)
  7. Donnie Avery (46)
  8. Nate Washington (47)
  9. Percy Harvin (48)
  10. Mike Walker (49)
  11. Nate Burleson (50)
  12. Patrick Crayton (51)
  13. Bobby Engram (52)
  14. Michael Jenkins (53)
  15. Mark Clayton (54)
  16. Mark Bradley (55)
  17. Isaac Bruce (56)
  18. Chaz Schilens (57)
  19. Chris Henry (58)
  20. Mushin Muhammad (59)

This list is full of huge upside, high risk, low risk, guaranteed numbers, possible goose eggs – but they rank out from 40-59 on my list. A guy like Deion Branch might get back to his best seasons with another option like Housh in town. When Branch has been healthy and in the game, he’s done well. Earl Bennett, Jay Cutler was his college QB, the know each other well, that’s something I’d like to have as a receiver. Crabtree has unreal ability. Get into camp young fella. Mushin is going to get some scores and catches and yards too, even though he’s older than time. Then you have a guy like Percy Harvin, he’s going to get targets and rushes, the Vikings drafted the RB/WR combo in the 1st round, believe me, they have plans for him. There’s lots of upside here, like I said, and then you have the Crayton’s, Engram’s, and Bruce’s of the world. Not much in terms of upside, but guaranteed numbers. I personally like to take low round chances on high upside receivers, Walker, Harvin, Avery, Bennett, those are a couple I think could do work this season.

IX

  1. Jeremy Maclin (60)
  2. Kenny Britt (61)
  3. James Jones (62)
  4. Jordy Nelson (63)
  5. Sidney Rice (64)
  6. Pierre Garcon (65)
  7. Dwayne Jarrett (66)
  8. Antwan Randel-El (67)
  9. Chris Chambers (68)
  10. Mike Thomas (69)
  11. Patrick Turner (70)
  12. Derrick Williams (71)

This last list is full of young guys with big question marks. Maclin has all the speed but what about the route running? I think James Jones could be a nice #2 somewhere in the league, but Jordy Nelson is pushing him for the #2 spot – it’s tough. I’ve heard good things from Garon, Mike Thomas, and Patrick Turner – lots of talent, but these guys have shown nothing in the NFL, making them a risky pick – but you can get them late, last round late, and that’s always worth a shot.

Clueless Voters – 1

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Check out this recent poll put up by ESPN – Toughest Match-Up

– People have absolutely no idea what they are talking about. Now, unless a gaggle of hockey players all around the US have decided to hop on and vote in this poll, there is no way that Alex Ovechkin gives up a single anything in a shootout to 99% of the voters. LeBron might give up a basket??? Larry Fitz would be nearly impossible to guard, sure, but maybe the QB tosses a couple bad balls, and you get your hands on one. Tiger Woods, anybody can have a couple good shots on a golf course, and maybe Tiger busts a driver out and enters the trap. And while all these things are equally impossible, there is no doubt in my mind, that the toughest thing for the public to do would be to strap on some razor-shoes, throw on some gear, take out a flat hockey stick, and pretend for one second that they could do anything in 100 chances to score a goal on an NHL goalie. Is hockey my favorite sport? No sir – but let me tell you this, I’ve played all 4 of these sports, and hockey is by far the toughest to just strap up and play. Think about learning to walk just before playing basketball – right, good luck.

There are many sports polls on websites every day, and when I feel the need, I’m putting up some of my thoughts on them. My goal is to somehow prove that people, when given a vote, will often have no idea what they’re talking about.

Until next time….

Toughest Match-ups

Guarding Larry Fitz – 15%

LeBron James 1 on 1 – 40%

Alexander Ovechkin in a shootout – 6%

Tiger Woods in match play – 40%

All impossible for the 28,277 people that have voted thus far, but I bet 7% of the people are actually right.

theRUNDOWN: Week 5

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QB: Drew Brees vs. Minnesota: He’ll have to throw at least as much as Kerry Collins did last week, but when Drew throws 35 times he completes at least 25 of those passes. Against Minnesota’s leaky secondary I like his chances for a big day.

RB: Marion Barber vs. Cincinnati: Is there a worse match-up for the Bengals? A really tough running back that refuses to go down against a defense that refuses to commit to tackling. Hmm….

RB: Matt Forte vs. Lions: Matt Millen just wanted to leave before a rookie put up 200 yards on his defense – I don’t blame him.

FLEX: Earnest Graham: I think Graham will go off against the most friend rush defense in the league. These guys in Denver are huggers for sure.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Buffalo: I know the Bills have been solid defensively, but with Boldin out I see a lot of targets for Larry, and I don’t think Buffalo can stop him even if they know it’s coming. They don’t have that kind of corner talent.

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Houston: This is basically a free 7 catches for 100+ yards and a score -that’s how I see it.

TE: Jason Witten vs. Cincinnati: This guy is great. I’ll start him 16 times this year in my league I own him in, maybe even on his bye, who knows?

K: Rian Lindell vs. Ram-Rod: I’m sure I’ll look bad again here, but how can you not like the Bills kicker against this defense? (I know why, because I picked him to have a big day, that’s the best anti-pick you could have).

D: Chicago Bears vs. Detroit: Jon Kitna is a sitting turnover, and I don’t think Rudi Johnson will be going off for 80+ rushing yards this week – I’ll go with my Bears.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Phillip Rivers: Shhh…. Phillip is slowly becoming a must start. Don’t look now but Rivers is second to only Brett Favre with 10 touchdowns on the season. Yes, Rivers has more touchdowns than everyone’s favorite Cutler.

Trent Edwards: Trent will be throwing a lot as Arizona’s front 7 is stout against the run. I also see Denver being down in this one and Arizona putting up enough points to put Buffalo is shootout mode. He coudl have his best passing day of his career – yards wise anyway.

Gus Frerotte: I’d start him this week – he’s a nice option against the Aint’s secondary.

Steve Slaton: Slaton has watched his stock rise way up the charts with his ability to do it on the ground and through the air. He might be the tool Houston needs to upset the Colts.

Jonathan Stewart: If I didn’t have a sure thing starting option this week, or if my guys Jamal Lewis or Steven Jackson were on bye, I’d feel good starting Jonathan Stewart -but when will the Panthers get him going in the receiving game? He’s got great hands.

Brandon Jackson: He’s a big chance, for sure, but the Packers might have to give him 14-16 carries right? With Grant struggling and Rodgers on the pine, I think Jackson is a big sleeper this week against the Falcons front 7.

Bernard Berrian: I like Berrian for a second straight week. He’ll be more consistent from here on out – he’s a nice player.

Jerry Porter: Porter should be back to full health, and the Jaguars seem to need him. He could be a nice start in his first game action with the Jags, especially against the Texans secondary.

Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson: I’d keep playing these kids. I know that rookie receivers are supposed to struggle, but Royal has too much speed and quickness for the old man corners in Tampa Bay, and you know Denver will be throwing. DeSean is going up against an injury depleted secondary from Washington. Both are nice starts.

Kevin Boss: I think Boss is a good bye week, stop-gap player this week. Burress is supsended so he’ll get more targets. The Hawks defense is solid, but they still give up passing yards.

Carolina Panthers: The Chiefs don’t do work two weeks in a row do they? I’m thinking sacks and just a couple points allowed for a big Carolina day.

Papa’S Week 4 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Jason Campbell: Despite his Top 10 start, I don’t like him in Philly this week. Even with the Eagles clogging up the ground game, I have a feeling Jason’s day will be mistake prone.

Julius Jones: He’s the Hawks #1 – 25 carry guy this week if the game’s close. But he won’t do a whole lot with all those touches. I’d just pretend he’s on bye again this week.

Clinton Portis: Portis got me last week with a nice performance against Dallas – not this week against an Eagle team that just lost. Philly plays the run better than anyone else right now.

Santana Moss: I don’t think he does it this week. I figure I have to start him in my leagues, but if he’s ready to have a bad game it’s this week against Philly – one thing on his side is the Redskins will have to throw the ball around a little.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 2

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Two weeks, two winners. That’s right, for the second straight week I picked every game the NFL had to offer and came out on top of the books. A little luck, a lot of plusses and minuses to consider, and here I am, 8 games over .500 after two weeks. My first week, 10-6, my second week, 9-5-1. That puts me at 19-11-1. This is how Week 2 went wild.

Oakland Raiders (+4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) “I think the Raiders will go back to the drawing board and see that running the ball will work for them.” Fargas got hurt, but he was off to a nice start before he went out. McFadden rushed for 160 yards and Michael Bush toted the rock for 90 yards himself. Needless to say, the Raiders relied on the run and it carried them to an easy victory over the Chiefs. I WIN!

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-3): (PUSH) Not much to say here, it was a tough game to cap and this is why. The Panthers aren’t a great home team, they don’t play well when favored, but the Bears are just the Bears, and not much to be worried about. It came down to the wire, but Jonathan Stewart’s touchdown put the Panther’s up 3 to stay and I pushed.

New Orleans Saints (+1) @ Washington Redskins: (LOSS) Up 24-15 going into the 4th quarter, the Saints were looking like a nice selection right around a pick’em. But the Redskins fought hard at home, and Jim Zorn got his first victory of the season. New Orleans was back to running the ball very poorly and Washington threw all over the Saints’ secondary as Jason Campbell put up over 300 yards through the air. The Redskins scored 14 unanswered in the 4th and took home the win.

Indianapolis Colts (pk) @ Minnesota Vikings: (WINNER) “I like the Vikings to exploit the Colts run defense, but this game comes down to the wire and Peyton Manning, with one regular season game under his belt, can do enough against a suspect Viking pass defense to take this game on the road.” As it was Adrian Peterson went off for 160 rushing yards but it wasn’t enough as Peyton lead his squad down the field to win this one late. Peyton still has his rust, and it might not be warn off by next Sunday, but he had enough to make my prediction ring true, 300+ yards for the dumpy faced Colt QB.

New York Giants (-8) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) The Giants seemingly did anything they wanted to the Rams, and this wasn’t a close contest at all. St. Louis looks really bad, and I have to believe that Scott Linnehan’s future is starting to look grim in St. Louis. Eli followed the lead of his fellow poo-faced brother and really tossed the ball around the Rams secondary, putting up 40+ points on the Rams to show what the Eagles did wasn’t a fluke.

Buffalo Bills (+6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) “without three of their starting offensive linemen, the Jaguars just don’t seem like a good favorite to bet on. I think the Jags will be better against the Bills than the Hawks were, but Buffalo’s physical play is a nice match-up for a physical Jags team. There aren’t many teams that will try to out-tough the Jaguars, and the Bills might just do that in Week 2. Take the points in this battle.” This one was close, and even with a poor offensive effort the Jags were leading headed down to the final minutes. But, Trent Edwards showed what he can do and orchestrated a nice game winning touchdown drive to end this thing. This was a solid bet.

Atlanta Falcons (+9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (LOSS) I still think I capped this game right. The Bucs were definitely out to make Matt Ryan beat them, and he couldn’t do anything close to that. Tampa stacked their line against the run and shut down Week 1’s rushing leader, Michael Turner. Earnest Graham looked legit again in less than 20 carries of action, and the Brian Griese led Bucs iced the Falcons and just wouldn’t allow touchdowns. Anyway, I’ll take the loss here.

San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) What can I say, when it rains, it floods the Hawks, that’s for sure. As if the fact that they were starting Logan Payne at receiver wasn’t bad enough, the Hawks lost Payne to a season ending knee injury in the first quarter. Ridiculous. I read somewhere, “Was Brett Favre on the cover of Madden ’09 or was it the Seahawks receiving corps?” Good accurate question there. Seattle still had a chance late, but really, they looked bad throughout this contest. THe only guys that looked good were Julius Jones and John Carlson. Either way, the 49ers won and my +220 bet I made felt really good when that game winning field goal went through the uprights. Your +9 looked brilliant throughout I’m sure.

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals (-6): (WINNER) “I expect Kurt Warner to air it out a little more against a suspect Dolphins secondary, as his two receivers look to have big games. The Cardinals are the best team in the NFC West, and while that doesn’t say much, it does mean they can handle the Dolphins with ease.” Warner was 19/24 for 361 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bolding caught 6 balls for 140 yards and 3 touchdowns. Larry Fitzgerald caught 6 balls for 153 yards. Seems like I took care of this game before it happened. Gotta love that.

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans (-4): No game this week – will be played on November 9th.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (LOSS) The Steelers looked like they dominated this game, but they never scored again after Hines Ward’s touchdown, and 10 was enough to keep the Browns winless to start the season. Ben’s shoulder hurt a bit and it showed, as the Steelers just did their best to run out the clock. I really feel like I got a raw deal here, but since I did pretty well this week I’ll just shrug it off.

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) “Come on, this seems like an insulting line. This is definitely one of my picks of the week.” This game was easy to pick, but then the Lions fought back, but they then decided to be the Lions again and lose by a 48-25 margin. Brilliant. This was basically free money, and I hope you cashed in.

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals:  (WINNER) “Free Money – even with Kerry Collins at quarterback. The Titans and the Bengals are on a different level, same league, but different level. For example, the Titans have 11 starting defensive players that can really tackle. The Bengals have one, and he’s a rookie. The Titans have a solid offensive attack despite quarterback trouble -the Bengals have a talented quarterback with previous success that looks lost because of how bad his offense is. Things are going bad in Cinci, and a Titan beat down isn’t going to make them feel any better.” Uh, yeah. When I said “free money” i meant “free money”.

San Diego Chargers (pk) @ Denver Broncos: (LOSS) The Chargers didn’t deserve to win this game despite the terrible call that handed the Broncos a victory late. That may sound weird, but the Broncos dominated this contest, and if it weren’t for some amazing plays down the stretch the Chargers wouldn’t have been close. Shanny’s balls to go for it to win the game… priceless. I lose this one, but it was as close as it gets, no doubt about that.

New England Patriots (+2.5) @ New York Jets: (WINNER) “At least there was something good out of Tom Brady going down with an injury – we get this spread to play with. I’ll take the Patriots as a dog against the Jets and laugh it all the way to the bank.” I am still giggling a bit, as the Patriots made Brett Favre’s addition look like a meaningless free agent signing. That’s right folks, even without our favorite quarterback, the Patriots are still one of the best teams in the league. Viva la free money!

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5): (LOSS)  Wow. What a game. The Eagles held the lead after a couple Cowboy mistakes early, but after McNabb put the ball on the turf in the 4th quarter, the Cowboys took the lead for good. A late drive couldn’t cut it for the Eagles, but they did cover, making me a loser for the 5th time this week. Still, after 15 games I was 9-5-1, not too shabby.