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Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football

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Hello all. For the last couple years I’ve posted a weekly fantasy football article with the title, theRUNDOWN – well after much thought and consideration, I’ve decided to ax theRUNDOWN and change the way I do things a little bit to make it easier for you. The new plan is that I’ll have a weekly article that highlights many important areas of the upcoming week. I’ll give you 4 different categories outlining fantasy startability every single week. We’ll have Elite Starters, Solid Starters, and Sleepers Starters – basically giving a list of 5 guys in each talent level with solid match-ups. I will also post a Sit ‘Em Son section for regular starters I’d steer clear from. That’s 20 guys rated out by me. Finally, I’ll get all the writers from my site, Josh Arsenault, Ryan Kauffman, Papa Weimer, and myself; to rank our top five players for the week at each position. With all things fantasy getting covered, I’m calling this section the Fantasy Focus. And focused it will be. Every new article will come with a small review of last week’s advice (except for this one because, well, there was no fantasy last week – it’s all just beginning). We hold ourselves accountable here. If we treat you well, we brag and gloat like Muhammad Ali, and if we dog it we own it. Here’s Week 1’s Fantasy Focus.

Elite Starters: Guys picked really early that I love this week…

1. DeAngelo Williams – I think DeLo will get 25 touches this week, he’ll kill that bad run defense from Philly
2. Tom Brady – He’s finding Wes Welker and # 4 all day long.
3. Larry Fitzgerald – Boldin might have a small hamstring issue, that means more looks for Larry.
4. Randy Moss – These guys will go hand in hand, Randy and Tom, Buffalo is in for some hurt.
5. Brian Westbrook – He may be a little risky, but that defensive line from Carolina doesn’t stop the run.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eddie Royal – I think Eddie will grab 10+ balls this week.
2. Reggie Bush – Against the Lions, those who stole Reggie late should smile on Sunday.
3. Ray Rice – You betcha, Ray Ray, come on down and start off your season against the Chiefs… Lucky!
4. Joseph Addai – I think Addai gets 20 carries and does a lot with them against the Jags suspect run D.
5. Matt Hasselbeck – Get ready for Matt to torch the Rams secondary, he’s back and more accurate than ever.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Donnie Avery – will be starting, if you are throwing a guy into the fray, why not a guy against that secondary?
2. Julius Jones – I picked this guy in two leagues after the 11th round, he’ll be a top 20 back this week.
3. Tim Hightower – One of the lowest drafted starting backs in the league, Tim approaches 100 yards this week.
4. Mark Sanchez – I like Mark this week in his opener. He’s going up against a bad defense, check it down to Leon!!!
5. Nate Burleson – ESPN projects 2 points for Nasty Nate – yeah, right – good play this week.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Carson Palmer – I’m not crazy about Palmer this week. I think they run the ball a lot against Denver.
2. Clinton Portis – I know he’s at his best early in the season, but this defensive front is as good as it gets.
3. Willie Parker – Willie got no love, then he got too much, even without Albert the Titans stop Parker.
4. Devin Hester – He may be a speed mis-match for Packers secondary, but those corners are too strong for Hester.
5. Hines Ward – I think Ward struggles in the opener, just a few catches, less than 50 yards.

PS – Don’t be the guy that starts Marshawn Lynch….

Week 1 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning	1.Tom Brady		1.Drew Brees		1.Tom Brady
2.Drew Brees		2.Drew Brees		2.Peyton Manning	2.Drew Brees
3.Tom Brady		3.Matt Ryan		3.Chad Pennington	3.Peyton Manning
4.Jay Cutler		4.Aaron Rodgers		4.Donovan McNabb	4.Aaron Rodgers
5.Phillip Rivers	5.Peyton Manning	5.Kyle Orton 		5.Matt Schaub

RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Michael Turner	1.DeAngelo Williams
2.DeAngelo Williams	2.DeAngelo Williams	2.Adrian Peterson	2.Brian Westbrook
3.Steven Jackson	3.Matt Forte		3.LaDainian Tomlinson	3.Maurice Jones Drew
4.Ray Rice		4.Reggie Bush		4.Frank Gore		4.Adrian Peterson
5.Willie Parker		5.Knowshon Moreno	5.Ryan Grant		5.Ronnie Brown

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Andre Johnson		1.Calvin Johnson	1.Steve Smith		1.Randy Moss
2.Reggie Wayne		2.Terrell Owens		2.Reggie Wayne		2.Larry Fitzgerald
3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith		3.Marques Colston	3.Reggie Wayne
4.Vincent Jackson	4.Andre Johnson		4.Randy Moss		4.Andre Johnson
5.Calvin Johnson	5.Wes Welker		5.Eddie Royal		5.Greg Jennings

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Antonio Gates		1.Jason Witten		1.Dallas Clark		1.Dallas Clark
2.Jason Witten		2.Antonio Gates		2.Tony Gonzalez		2.Antonio Gates
3.Dallas Clark		3.Dallas Clark		3.Antonio Gates		3.Jason Witten
4.Greg Olsen		4.John Carlson		4.Owen Daniels		4.Zach Miller
5.Dustin Keller		5.Brandon Petitgrew	5.Jason Witten		5.John Carlson

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens		1.Ravens		1.Giants		1.Vikings
2.Steelers		2.Cowboys		2.Ravens		2.Ravens
3.Giants		3.Seahawks		3.Chargers		3.Cowboys
4.Patriots		4.Redskins		4.Saints		4.Giants
5.Bengals		5.Patriots		5.Steelers		5.Bengals

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Your guess is as good as ours. Plus, we don't care enough to write about it.

Dominate Your Draft: Fantasy Football Predictions from Josh

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Better late than never, my fantasy predictions for the 2009 NFL season are here to ease your draft day anxieties.  There is a ton of value to be found in the mid-to-late rounds this year, especially at the running back position.  Wise owners will recognize the opportunity to load up on WR talent in the early rounds if they don’t find themselves in a position to grab one of the top three or four running backs.  Remember, fantasy championships are rarely won in the first few rounds of a draft, but they can definitely be lost.  Be a savvy owner this season and choose based upon value, not name recognition.  With that in mind, here are the true pearls of wisdom to guide you on your path to fantasy greatness … because anything worth doing is worth doing better than your friends.

1.  Carson Palmer will return to prominence as a top-tier fantasy QB.  I am predicting 4,000 yards passing and at least 25 TDs for the Bengals signal-caller.

2.  In his second season as a pro, Kevin Smith will make the jump from rookie sensation to fantasy stud.  I think he’ll pile up 1,500 yards from scrimmage with 40 grabs and 12 TDs.

3.  Chris Cooley will out-produce Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  This guy is just a good football player and there will be no shortage of targets with that receiving corps in DC.

4.  The Seahawks will recapture the NFC West crown on the strength of a huge season by a receiver not named TJ.  Nate Burleson will catch 70 balls for 1,000+ yards and 7 TDs.

5.  Matt Leinart will throw for more yards and account for more touchdowns than incumbent starter Kurt Warner.  Thanks to a suspect defense, the Cards will still miss the playoffs.

6.  Although technically the #3 WR in Cincy, Chris Henry will produce like a #2 fantasy wide receiver.  Expect 50-60 grabs with at least 8 of those going for TDs.

7.  A forgotten man in the Saints attack last season, Marques Colston will remind owners that he is a top fantasy WR.  90+ catches and 1,200 yards in the 4th round? … yes please!

8.  Hakeem Nicks has an outside shot to win ROY honors, and I think that he’ll come on strong as the season wears on.  Pencil him in for 850 yards and 6 TDs for the G-Men.

9.  Speakig of outstanding rooks, Mark Sanchez will get you 20 TDs and is a great late-round pick as a #2 QB.  Dynasty leaguers don’t wait too long on this kid, he’s going to be a good one.

10.  Willie Parker has fallen off the map in a lot of fantasy drafts but he’s a good bet to contribute 1,500 total yards this season with 8-10 touchdowns … tremendous value late.

11.  Speaking of forgotten men, Ryan Grant will rebound in a big way for Green Bay.  You can go receiver early and nab Grant and his 1,300 yards and 10 TDs later on.

12.  Steve Slaton is due for a sophomore slump.  He still carries nice value in PPR leagues, but not for where you’ll have to draft him to get him.  Don’t expect 16 healthy games, either.

13.  How many 300-carry backs can you find outside of the first round? … Value, thy name is Clinton Portis.  The Skins meal ticket is slipping in drafts, not production.  1,400 and 10 TDs.

14.  Vincent Jackson finished with 59 catches for 1,098 yards and 7 TDs and didn’t become the #1 WR in San Diego until mid-season.  He finishes with more of all three in 2009. Hop on board before it’s too late, this guy is a beast.

15.  This is finally the season to go get Vernon Davis.  Nothing like getting top-10 production from the 20th TE off the board.  I like Davis to reel in 50 balls for 700 yards and 5 TDs.

16.  Speaking of underrated tight ends, Visanthe Shiancoe was a pleasant surprise last season but is still receiving no love.  If he’s there late grab him and his considerable (8 TDs) upside.

17.  Starting RBs are overrated (at least when they have great backups) … let others spend top round picks on Gore, Jacobs and Williams then go get Coffee, Bradshaw and Stewart, each will approach 1,000 yards.

18.  That said, I am buying what the 49ers are selling.  If he stays healthy Frank Gore has a shot to be the top fantasy point-scorer.  2,000 total yards and 15 TDs is not out of the question.

19.  Knowshon Moreno could be great at some point, but not this year and not for this team.  The Broncos are a gong show and I wouldn’t count on anything more than 800 yards and 5 TDs.

20.  I love Jason Witten, but his numbers are due for a hit following TO’s departure.  Expect him to see plenty of double-teams unless Roy Williams can command some respect early.

21.  I rank my fantasy RBs with dreads in this order:  Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Tim Hightower.  Close fades > Dreads.

22.  I rank this receiver with dreads above all the running backs mentioned previously.  Larry Fitzgerald is a sure thing and keeps getting better.  Hello 1,600 yards and 18 TDs

23.  Ray Rice has the potential to be a top-15 running back as early as this season, especially in PPR league.  I expect a Slatonesque 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs for the diminutive fireball.

24.  The Chargers D/ST will be a top-5 unit this season.  When you see the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders twice a year the odds are in your favor (getting Merriman back doesn’t hurt either).

25.  Leon Washington will be the best fantasy option in the Jets backfield.  What he lacks in goal-line looks he will make up for in reception and receiving yards.

26.  In his first season in the league, LeSean McCoy will get as many snaps as Brian Westbrook and will make the majority of the starts for the Eagles down the stretch.

27.  I hate to say this, but I think Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being slightly over-valued in drafts.  The Jags offensive line is just that, but I still think MJD is good enough for 1,500 total yards and 12 total TDs.

28.  Nate Davis will make at least four starts for the 49ers this season and he will win at least three of those starts.  This kid from Ball State does everything well, winning most of all (Singletary needs winners, remember?).

29.  When drafting your running backs, avoid the muddy situations in Denver, New England, Tampa Bay and Cleveland … I don’t see a single 1,000 yard rusher in these backfields.

30.  I think a return to prominence is in the cards for Larry Johnson.  He is the most talented player on the Chiefs roster and has a favorable schedule … look for him to turn back the clock with 1,200 yards rushing and double-digit TDs.

theRUNDOWN: Week 1

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2008’s Week 1 is upon us. Thursday Night’s contest pitting the Giants against their in-conference rival Redskins makes for good TV, but does that match-up make for good fantasy fun? Hard to tell. I have a sleeper or two from that group, but as far as fantasy studs, I’ll stay away. These are my favorite players to start, some sleepers, and some guys to avoid on Sunday – This is theRUNDOWN for Week 1 – write this down!

QB: Kurt Warner vs. San Francisco: Last time Kurt played the Niners he approached 500 passing yards. He didn’t get it, but he surely sniffed it. I don’t think he’ll do that kind of colossus damage, but he should be one of the best starting options in Week 1. I’ll take him as my quarterbacking bell-cow.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Carolina: I have to take LT because he’s scored on opening day in every single season but one in his NFL career. That’s something right? He doesn’t have the best match-up ever, but he’s still going to show the Panthers a thing or two.

RB: Marion Barber vs. Cleveland: I know the Browns got much better defensively, but I just have a feeling. This is wear I put guys down that I have feelings about.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Kansas City: Because why not? Moss is one of the best receivers in the game and he’s going to KC where nobody on the roster can guard him. Seems like a no-brainer.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Cleveland: Yes, I will start TO and Randy and smile the whole time. Cleveland’s secondary doesn’t stand much of a chance against the Cowboys passing attack – TO is a big reason why. The only guy I’d consider instead of Owens is Calvin Johnson, but I figured I’d start with Randy and TO and go from there.

TE: Tony Scheffler vs. Oakland: Without Brandon Marshall I just have to believe Scheffler gets about 10 targets on Monday Night. That’s good enough for me to give him the nod.

K: Josh Brown vs. Philadelphia: Brown struggled in the pre-season, making me wonder if Seattle can see the future. I doubt it though, why would they have resigned Shaunna Alexander if they could see the future? Its an ongoing joke that I can’t pick good kicking options- we’ll see if that continues through Week 1.

D: Patriots vs. Kansas City: I just feel like the Patriots are pretty good and the KC offense is horrendous. Is that wrong?

LUCKY’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Matt Schaub: I think Warner could be a bit of a sleeper, but since I took him as my top option, he really doesn’t work here. In that case I’ll roll with Matt Schaub. I think he can do his part to torch the Steelers defense despite most people predicting a Pittsburgh beat down.

Aaron Rodgers: You bet – this kid is going to be good. Why not start in Week 1 against a suspect secondary?

Chris Johnson: He needs to make one guy miss and then run away from everyone else. I think CJ will be a lot like Maurice Jones Drew in MJD’s rookie run. Even against Jax, I like CJ as a sleeper.

Maurice Morris: It seems like a lot of people don’t realize it, but Morris is the starter in Seattle. They go up against a Bills team that doesn’t do many things great defensively. I am willing to bet that Morris is a double digit fantasy scorer this Sunday.

Matt Forte: This rookie goes up against the Colts. That’s what I’m saying. He’s starter worthy.

Nate Burleson: He’s the #1 target in Seattle and while that would normally give him the opposing defense’s best corner back, Buffalo really doesn’t have one of those. He’s a nice option on Sunday.

Roddy White: After a great ’07 season Roddy seemed to fall down in drafts for some reason. I wonder if it’s because Atlanta’s QB play last year was good and this year they have a rookie? Hmmm… Nope, they just cut the guy that started most of ’07. I like Roddy no matter who is throwing him the ball.

Robert Meachem: There’s a chance Meachem is the deep threat right off the bat in New Orleans. With Tampa giving Colston, Shockey, and Bush lots of attention I have a feeling Meachem could get loose for a couple big plays.

Zach Miller: The Raiders will have to throw the ball to someone on Monday against Denver. Miller won’t be getting blanketed by Champ Bailey or Dre Bly. So yeah, I think he’s a top 12 starting option this weekend.

Bengals: One would hate to ever have to start the Bengals week in and week out, but they should make some plays against the Ravens sputtering offense. (Yes, they will sputter early). There are worse defenses out there, and the Bengals have the playmakers to score a touchdown or two.

LUCKY’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Drew Brees: The proof is there, this high scorer rarely does a lot of damage against the Bucs – if you have a decent back-up option, start him instead.

Ryan Grant and Adrian Peterson: I don’t think either of these defensive lines will allow a 100 yard rusher in Week 1 – even though AP and Grant are beasts, this isn’t a good match-up for either of them.

Bernard Berrien: I like BB’s chances to have a great season, but he just seems to get pushed around by the physical corners in Green Bay. We’ll see, but there’s a good chance that continues.

Willie Parker: I like me some Fast Willie Parker, but I think Houston is much improved up front, and they will make Pittsburgh beat them through the air.

It looks like I’ll have a nice little team on my bench this week.

Ask Papa Weimer: Last Pre-Season Questions

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Here it is, one more question and answer section from you guys to me – there were three pretty solid email questions that I thought would be good to share – these are them.

David-Bill-Bob from America writes, “What do you think of Ted Ginn as a possible receiver option this season? What about Robert Meachem, James Hardy, Devin Hester, and Sidney Rice? Can you rate that foursome?”

Oh yes, lots of upside here. Not very much sure-thing here, but who loves to play a game you’re sure to win? Not me – I’m all about the upside. Forget the Bobby Engrams and the Derrick Masons, I’ll wait longer and dance with the young-guns. I think Ted Ginn could be a great player in the Dolphins passing attack, but I doubt he’ll score many touchdowns. The thing that’s good about his situation is that Pennington throws short a lot and Ted is fast enough to get some separation early. As for the rest of the guys, Devin Hester is my favorite – he’s a touchdown waiting to happen, and even if he gets 60 catches this season, he’ll probably take 10 of them to the house. Robert Meachem could be the best of the bunch, but I wasn’t a huge fan of the kid coming out of college. He looked solid in the pre-season, and what a weapon he could be if Drew Brees finds a liking for throwing to him against single coverage. Sidney Rice is a nice sleeper – it’s said that T-Jackson is more accurate than ever, and with Berrian opposite Rice, Sindney should get lots of single coverage. I don’t know if the Vikes will throw enough to make Rice a solid start week in and week out, but the kid can go up and get the ball, which might be good for 6-9 scores as defenses will focus on the run. James Hardy was my favorite receiver in the draft and I think he has a bright future, but he’s just a rookie and the speed of the game might hamper him early. Keep an eye on him though, when he figures it out he’ll be a threat. I’d rank them like this… Ginn Jr. – Devin Hester – Robert Meachem – Sidney Rice – James Hardy.

Tim from Floresville, Texas writes, “The people in my league think I am crazy for trading Chad Johnson for Bernard Berrian. What do you think?? I only picked up Chad to trade him, his inconsistencies and the fact that Cinci has the 2nd toughest schedule against the pass this season made me trade him away.”

Tim, I think BB is a good receiver, but he’s not Chad Johnson. I fully understand taking Chad so you can trade him later, but I still don’t think you got the best value you could have by grabbing BB in a trade for him. If all you wanted was BB, you could have just drafted him instead of Chad. You likely would have gotten a better RB where you got Chad, and you still could have got BB later. You say Berrian didn’t have anyone throwing him the ball last year, but in reality, Tarvaris Jackson isn’t even as prolific through the air as Rex Grossman is. I like Jackson’s upside, but even if Chad has a down year and Berrian plays really well, I thikn the best you can hope for here is a push. Even against tough passing defenses, the Bengals still ahve Carson Palmer and TJ Housmandzadeh to help take the pressure off Chad. Maybe the Bengals just crash and tumble, and maybe Chad is hurt and out longer than expected – and maybe Jackson shows maturity and tosses 20 touchdowns. I don’t know, but that just seems like a lot of maybes to hope for. I have BB in a few leagues, and I would definitely trade him straight up for Chad in every one of them. But no, I don’t think you’re crazy, I think you’re courageous. There’s nothing better in fantasy football than making a trade that everyone thinks you are stupid for and coming out on top because of it. That means you were right and everyone else was wrong. That’s the best. You definitely did your research, and I’m rooting for you. Also, Chad isn’t consistent, that’s true. Over the last couple seasons, he’ll help you win 3 or 4 weeks and kill you for the other 10. With a lot of single coverage, because of Peterson, BB could end up being a lot more consistent that Chad. Good luck!

T.J. in Alabama says, “Papa, you have any sweet predictions this season? Last year you told me that Randy was going to blow up and Larry Fitz was going to lead the league – both had huge years for me and I’m back for more. Any secret advice?”

Like Chef once said, “You’ve got to find the clitoris.” That might not help in this particular situation, but it does allow older men (like myself) to pleasure younger women, which in turn gives hope to mankind. Alright, alright, I was planning on a little, “This is how I see it” article next week, but here’s a little preview, T.J., you impatient bastard!

Larry Johnson will be a Top 5 running back this year, making him an absolute steal at the end of Round 1 where he’s getting drafted.

Drew Brees will throw more touchdown passes (I’m thinking 36) than any other quarterback in the NFL this season. That’s right, while I’m not a huge fan of Jeremiah Shocker, he will take that much pressure off of Drew because of the constant attention opposing defenses will have to pay him. I don’t think Shockey’s touchdown totals will improve all that much (he’s bound to drop as many TDs as he catches – so probably 6-7 scores for him) but Reggie Bush, Colston, and Meachem will all set their season high touchdown marks this year. Brees as well.

Ricky Williams will have more fantasy points than Edgerrin James – this is no knock on James, because Ricky will outscore three of the following high-round picks… LenDale White, Earnest Graham, Ronnie Brown, Julius Jones, and Willie Parker.

Adrian Peterson extreemists are right, there will be at least one back that outscores LaDainian Tomlinson this season, but they are also wrong, because it won’t be AP – Marion Barber will lead all running backs in fantasy points this season.

And last but not least, Randy Moss won’t come close to his record touchdown catches of last year, but Wes Welker will score more fantasy points this year than he did last year – both are still great options to have.

Keep the questions coming, and stay tuned, I’ll be here all season! (hopefully the ticker keeps tickin’)