Tag Archives: Donnie Avery

Fantasy Focus Review: Week 8 Fantasy Football

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This was a terrible fantasy week for me. Not only did I lose two huge divisional fantasy games by a total of 3 fantasy points, but my good picks performed pretty poorly while my bad picks did alright. It was a struggle. And then you have me finishing last in the fantasy picks amongst writers – I just want to turn in Week 8 and forget all about it. Kind of like the Redskins offense does every week. At least the fantasy crown stayed in la familia, despite a great QB and WR prediction day from Arsenault. But now I have Papa dogging my fantasy knowledge. Ugh. Here’s the review.

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Peyton Manning – Despite throwing for 347 yards in Week 8, Joseph Addai was the only Colt with a TD pass. Manning finished 9th amongst QBs, but just 13 fantasy points. C-
2. Adrian Peterson – The Packers shut down AP last time out, I DOUBT that happens again. Not this time.
3. Drew Brees – Brees was 7th amongst QBs with 20 fantasy points, a nice day out of him. B
4. Steve Slaton– Ryan Moats numbers, you see them? That’s what Slaton would have had if not for fumble-itas. Slaton got benched after 1 carry and 1 catch. F
5. Chris Johnson– Best running back option in Week 8, best overall. This guy is a stud. A+

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Kyle Orton – The Ravens shut down the Broncos, definitely, Orton was the 21st ranked QB. F
2. Steve Smith – 13th wide receiver, he played well early. B+
3. Marshawn Lynch – 35th RB. Despite being up into the 4th, Lynch had just 9 carries. Buffalo is dumb. F
4. Steve Smith– 15th receiver this week, pretty solid output despite Giants’ struggles. B+
5. Brandon Jacobs – 21st RB, Jacobs had 87 rushing yards despite being way behind. He’s running well. C+

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Nate Burleson – 6 grabs for 89 yards, Nate has had a very nice year, way better than Housh so far. B+
2. Eddie Royal – Eddie is open, ala T.J. Housh in Seattle – too bad nobody throws these guys the ball. F
3. Mike Bell – Just 2 fantasy points for Bell, there goes me reading Sean’s mind. F
4. Donnie Avery – 1 catch for 15 yards, I hate Marc Bulger. F
5. Beanie Wells – 41st RB. Good average, stupid play calling will screw a good day from a RB anytime. F

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Julius Jones – 56 rushing yards and 2 grabs for 32 receiving. Not terrible, not good. I expected less. C-
2. Thomas Jones – Thomas had a nice day for the Jets, 102 rushing yards and a 28 yard catch. 18th RB. D
3. Roy Williams – Roy had just 2 catches for 19 yards, but he took one into the end zone. Still, that gives him 3 catches for 35 yards over his last 2 starts. Gross. B
4. Matt Hasselbeck – Well I was wrong in a sense, Matt finished 6th amongst QBs, but that fantasy output didn’t represent the game, as Matt and the Hawks got kicked around. Still, this is fantasy, I was wrong. F
5. LeSean McCoy – McCoy’s 1 65 yard TD run was enough to bury this as a good sit-pick. It looked good for most of the game, but the kid is explosive, and that long run definitely counts. F

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Who did we miss? Percy Harvin and Greg Jennings were both Top 5 performers and not one of us picked the rookie or Jennings despite a couple of us picking Favre and Rodgers. Interesting… As for running back absentees, how about Ryan Moats finishing 2nd in Week 8, you just can’t predict that business. Matt Forte finally made a Top 5 list, finishing 4th with 26 fantasy points against that burly Browns defense. Mark Sanchez, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, and Matt Hasselbeck finished 3, 4, 5, and 6 – and not a single one of us predicted one of those signal callers in a Top 5. Dustin Keller finished atop the TE rankings, while Kevin Boss, Brent Celek, and Spencer Havner (again) finish out the Top 5 at that position. Defensively, we all picked the Cardinals (final ranking 25th of 26 teams) but left out the Panthers (tied for 2nd with the Ravens). We also left out the Dolphins who rode two kick off return touchdowns to a huge defensive/special teams day in a win over the Jets. Kickers kicked, that’s all I remember there. Until next week!

Free Fantasy Football Picks: Papas Predictions

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My Nephew has me back giving some fantasy advice, he was nice enough to pay me nothing to work for another year, what a guy. But hey, I have fun doing it right? Shit, I only have to wear two pairs of glasses to see the damn screen, make 100 errors while hunting and pecking my way into oblivion, all the while trying not to listen to this voice in my head that keeps telling me to pick Barry Sanders in my upcoming draft – (I still do that with my last pick, what can I say, I’m hopeful for a comeback). So these are my predictions, I hope that’s not too quick of a transition for you, if it is just deal with it I guess. I’m old, but I’ve probably been playing fantasy football since you were an idea that your parents couldn’t even fathom – you know, when they still wore condoms and took birth control. So, I’ve been around for a while, won lots of fantasy championships, and learned from my mistakes as well. What has that taught me? That these predictions are more likely to be true than my nephews. That’s what. Why? Because I’ve only been wrong once, and that was when I thought I was wrong and was actually right. Here goes…

1. Matt Hasselbeck will be a Top 7 quarterback in 2009.

2. Either Chester Taylor or Jerious Norwood will be a Top 20 fantasy back this season. Choose wisely.

3. Matt Schaub will not play more than 12 games, but that’s okay, he’ll still throw 20 touchdowns.

4. The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets will be a Top 5 fantasy defense.

5. Tom Brady will be the #1 fantasy quarterback.

6. Donovan McNabb will be Top 5.

7. Who will round out my QB top 7? Drew Brees and Philip Rivers and Tony Romo will be in there too. That leaves one spot left over, gotta have a flier in there somewhere – but I’m not going to predict that, 6 out of 7 ain’t bad.

8. The highest paid QB in the NFL finishes out of the Top 20 in fantasy QB rankings.

9. Even though I’ve had poops bigger than Darren Sproles and Leon Washington, both will finish amongst the Top 30 running backs in PPR leagues.

10. Thomas Jones won’t, Jamal Lewis won’t, Jonathan Stewart won’t either.

11. Knowshon Moreno will have at least five 100-yard games this season.

12. That will be more than Marion Barber.

13. This year’s DeAngelo Williams (surprise, out of nowhere back that is seemingly left for dead because of a high draft pick or “new” back taking his place? That would be Joseph Addai. He won’t be the #1 fantasy back like Williams was last year, but he’s getting drafted around 20 in most of my leagues, he’ll be a Top 10 guy.

14. Marshawn Lynch will be a Top 10 guy from Week 4 until Week 16 – do those week’s matter to anybody?

15. Not much of a stunner, but Adrian Peterson will lead the league in rushing yards, by a lot.

16. I’d rather have Ronnie Brown than Chris Johnson. Why? Ready… He’s going to have more fantasy points. But I like both guys.

17. Kevin Smith will be a top 10 fantasy running back.

18. Randy Moss will score more fantasy points that Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson.

19. T.J. Houshmandzadeh will catch more passes than anybody in the NFL.

20. Chad Johnson will show everybody that last year was a fluke, and that he’s still very inconsistent, but will be a Top 10 WR in the fantasy world.

21. If Terrell Owens is healthy for all 16 games, he will be a Top 5 fantasy receiver. I will guarantee he’s a top 10 guy regardless.

22. Anthony Gonzalez will have more fantasy points than Roy Williams.

23. Lance Moore will have at least 70 catches for 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. That might not be last years’ totals, but that’s still pretty damn good considering where you draft the guy.

24. John Carlson will be a Top 6 Tight End.

25. Joseph Addai > Darren McFadden > Pierre Thomas… That would be opposite of their draft rankings.

26. Felix Jones scores more fantasy points than Ray Rice.

27. Donnie Avery scores more fantasy points than Donald Driver.

28. The highest scoring rookie receiver this season? Hakeem Nicks.

29. Brandon Jacobs will score more fantasy points, in non PPR leagues, than any other RB in the NFL not named Adrian Peterson. He’s number one, or maybe number two….

30. In the games that Reggie Bush plays in (I’m guessing 12-14) he’ll be a Top 10 PPR RB. So he has GREAT draft value right now. *Currently ranked 31 by Espin the Magazine.

Done and Done. It only took my a million hunts and pecks to find the right keys to right this damn thing, and if you count my hourly wage, I’m going to have to win the lottery to get out of the red… blast. But at least I’ll get to rub it in when these are all right.

2009 NFL Fantasy Football: Lucky Lester Shares his Predictions

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Last year’s predictions had some big winners, a couple tough luck losers, not to mention a handful of “what the hell was I thinking” fortunes that I told all wrong. I won’t get them all right this year either, but I’d like to think my waterfall of fantasy fodder will get you on the right track for your drafts, seasonal trade value, and possibly even a date with that girl that works at Victoria Secret. The brunette. As goes, I’ll spout off some claim, maybe even a sentence explaining why I think this, and will review the whole thing later in the year to see how it all went. All four of the writers doing work on this site will do an article similar to this, and in the end we’ll see who is the sharpest beach ball of them all. Let the games begin!

1. When Maurice Jones-Drew straps up his helmet this season he’ll get 5-10 more touches per game. According to Josh Arsenault’s “Value of Opportunity” article that means big things for MJD. How big? Try 1800+ total yards and 14+ TDs for one of the game’s most explosive players.

2. Through one game last season, Nate Burleson was on pace to have 900+ yards and 80 catches. He’ll get close to that this season, despite being TJ Housh’s sidekick for the Seattle Seahawks. How close? Lets say 70 grabs and 900 yards, plus at least 6 touchdowns. Not a bad output for a guy rarely getting picked before Round 14, if at all.

3. Last year, Donnie Avery posted 53 receptions, 674 yards, and 3 scores for the Rams. He’ll double that last total, while finishing with at least 70 grabs and 850 yards.

4. Two of the following four quarterbacks will fail to play 12 games this year: Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Big Ben Roethlisberger. O-line questions, style of play observations, interesting coaching decisions, and some bad freaking luck will likely play a role.

5a. If Daunte Culpepper gets the job out of camp, he’ll throw more than 20 touchdowns in 2009.

5b. If Matthew Stafford gets the gig out of camp, he’ll throw for less than 15.

6. At least two of these guys will be in the top 5 in rushing yards this season: LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Ryan Grant.

7. There is a business like show business – it’s called professional sports.

8. The last time Tony Gonzalez had less than 73 catches was 2002 and that was the only time that happened in the last 10 years. He’ll have fewer catches this season.

9. Reggie Bush will end up having more fantasy points than Pierre Thomas, despite getting drafted after him in almost every single draft. Many forget that Reggie played in only 10 games (2 of which he barely played in) and he still finished with over 800 total yards and 6 TDs.

10. Matt Hasselbeck is moving up my rankings based on his strength and accuracy thus far in the pre-season. He’ll finish as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.

11. Trent Edwards also has seen a boost. It’s just the pre-season, I know, but I see him being a Top 20 guy, easily.

12. When are people going to recognize Eddie Royal? This kid is going to be special. In his second season he’ll improve on his 91 catches, 980 yards, and five touchdowns. Yes, that means he’ll be even better without Cutler, folks.

13. Last year was amazing for DeAngelo Williams. First the Panthers draft Jon Stewart in the 1st round, then Williams turns into the best fantasy running back in the league. Not a fluke, the guy is a very smart runner. He won’t match his TDs from last season, but his rushing yardage will shoot over the 1500 yard mark once again.

14. Everybody and their mother thinks Ronnie Brown is overrated going into 2009 because “half his points came in one game, blah, blah, blah”. What a joke. The fat lady hasn’t even written a song for this kid yet, he’s going to tear it up in the AFC East this season. Halfway through his 7th game in 2007, Brown was just 9 yards short of 1000 from scrimmage with 5 touchdowns. He was the only offensive threat on the field and he was still rushing for over 5 yards per carry. He’s a beast. He’s fully healthy and more than a year removed from his knee injury. This will easily be his best season. I predict over 1400 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns from the 27 year old with very few miles on his tires.

15. Speaking of the fat lady, these old guys aren’t dead yet: Each player, despite their avg. draft slot, will have solid years. Torry Holt (35th WR), Terrell Owens (12th WR), Clinton Portis (14th RB) (only 28 this season, but an OLD 28), and LT (7th RB) should all be good. At least 3 of the 4 will will finish above their average draft slot ranking.

16. Youth Movement? Not this year, not for rookies anyway. After 4 rookie running backs finished in the top 20 in total rushing yards last season (3 in the Top 10), no more than one rookie will match that mark this season (none in the Top 10).

17. Julius Jones is getting picked late. Probably even later than he was before Edgerrin James got swooped up by the Hawks. But Jones will still be the man in Seattle, and that zone blocking scheme should be a good one for his Irish style. He once had 1084 rushing yards for the Cowboys and 4 touchdowns. I’m saying he finishes with more yards and scores than he did during his best season with Dallas. In fact, I’m willing to suggest he has 8 touchdowns or more in 2009.

18. There are 25 running backs getting picked ahead of Darren McFadden. He out produces at least half of those guys, and makes it into the Top 12 this season. He’s moving up my board!

19. Brandon Jacobs finishes the season with more carries and yards than he ever has in his career. Oh, and he at least matches those 15 scores from a season ago. That offensive line is beastly.

20. What does Dallas do with all those TO targets this season? Roy Williams? Sure, Roy will get more targets, but a lot of those TO touches are going to Felix Jones. That means he’ll be much better than his average draft position. His ADP is 36, he’ll be top 20.

21. People are drafting Vincent Jackson as if he will get the same numbers he got last season. So, a couple picks ahead of that, you should grab him. He will have better totals across the board, catches, yardage, touchdowns.

22. Mark Sanchez (the rookie that was “not ready for the NFL” according to the “brilliant” Coach Carol at USC) will win at least 8 games as the Jets starting signal caller this season.

23. Steve Slaton will outscore every sophomore running back not named Matt Forte. That’s right, those in love with McFadden’s upside, Chris Johnson’s speed, Kevin Smith, and Jon Stewart’s all around tools, Slaton is the guy I see being a stud this season.

24. Tim Hightower will be a better fantasy back than Beanie Wells – especially in PPR leagues. Beanie can’t catch. Beanie gets hurt. Tim isn’t my fave, not at all, but his fantasy stats will be better than the Cardinals’ first round pick’s numbers.

25. The San Diego Chargers’ defense will once again be a Top 5 fantasy unit.

26. Anquan Boldin > Roddy White (fantasy points).

27. Derrick Ward, often drafted as the 37th RB overall. He’ll be at least 10 spots higher than that on the end-of-season running back rankings.

28. Mark Sanchez gets drafted ahead of Matt Hasselbeck in most fantasy leagues. I promise Matt will be better than Mark, in fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt doubles Mark in touchdowns. Shoot, right it down.

29. Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten will all finish ahead of Tony Gonzalez in the TE rankings.

30. Anthony Gonzalez, Eddie Royal, along with Vincent and DeSean Jackson will all have more fantasy points than Braylon Edwards this season.

That’s it, as promised, I’m first: 3 more prediction sessions on the way before the season begins…

Three for Thursday

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For todays session I have three waiver wire players I really like moving forward – remember, I’m all about the elite possibilities, these guys are low risk high reward players, and there’s no other way to play fantasy football…

Ryan Torain: I don’t know if I can be more clear, this is the guy in Denver. I’d rather have him than any back in Bronco-land, even incumbent starter Selvin Young. Take into consideration the fact that Young gets about 10 carries a game as the starter, and you can see that Splinter isn’t inclined to give him the rock enough times to make him worth your while. Torain is a beast and I would be surprised if he doesn’t lead the Broncos in carries this season – yes, that means you’re looking at a possible Ryan Grant situation from yesteryear and that means big things. If he’s available get him – this is the last time I recommend the big Arizona back.

Donnie Avery: Because why not, that’s why. If you are looking for a receiving prospect that could have some huge games, than look no further than the speedy Ram opposite Torry Holt. Holt gets plenty of double teams and Avery is too fast to ignore. When you add the fact that St. Louis will be playing from behind plenty, there’s not reason to ignore this receiver. He’s a rookie, so production won’t be consistent, but a bye week flier on him might be beneficial.

Steve Smith: I know Dominek Hixon has been getting a lot of hype out of New York, but I think Smith will be the second best Giant receiving threat. He’s not a low risk high reward player, but in a PPR league he’s going to be very consistent. He catches about 80% of the balls thrown his way which is ridiculous. Eli has always shown an intelligent sense in who to get the ball to and this kid catches everything. He doesn’t get a ton of attention from defenses and while he won’t catch a lot of touchdowns, he’s going to score points all year long. If you need a 4th or 5th receiver, this USC product is a nice option.