Tag Archives: Tiered Player Rankings

2009 Fantasy Football Tiered Player Rankings: Lucky Lester’s Top 220

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I’m back again with yet another fantasy article, this one rates out my top 220 players for this season and this season only. I’ve already busted out a dynasty chart (without rookies) for the next three years, you could check that out here. It’s an older article, and while some things have changed, that look should give you a decent view of the future if you find yourself in a dynasty league late this fall – but remember, it happened before the draft, and thus is without rookies, a valuable resource in dynasty leagues.

I’ve also spent a little time busting out some tiered rankings for each position, hopefully helping you on draft day – check that out here. I’m breaking these down into tiers as well, because a ranking list is nothing without a little crying game. Also, looking at my final rankings and my earlier tiered rankings, you’ll see some small differences. Why? Well, that’s because things happen over a month that give me reason to move players up and down. Nothing is concrete!

When I rank players, I’m not saying, “this is going to be the final points standings at years’ end”, no, I’m saying that this is the order of value, fantasy points, and upside going into draft day, a sort of cheat sheet to help you assess value on D-Day. Hope this helps!

First Tier

1.	Adrian Peterson – Favre signing just enough to get him on top.
2.	Maurice Jones Drew
3.	Matt Forte
4.	Michael Turner – I might not be giving him enough credit, looks great!

Second Tier

5.	LaDainian Tomlinson
6.	Steve Slaton
7.	Frank Gore
8.	Andre Johnson
9.	Larry Fitzgerald
10.	DeAngelo Williams – J-Stew’s injury woes has Williams moving up.
11.	Steven Jackson
12.	Chris Johnson
13.	Randy Moss – Randy is Tom’s favorite weapon.
14.	Brian Westbrook

Third Tier

15.	Steve Smith
16.	Calvin Johnson
17.	Clinton Portis – All four of these backs are great value picks…
18.	Ronnie Brown - …
19.	Ryan Grant - …
20.	Brandon Jacobs – His O-line is the stuff championships are made of.
21.	Marion Barber
22.	Tom Brady
23.	Drew Brees

Forth Tier

24.	Anquan Boldin – Best #2 in the league.
25.	Reggie Wayne – Still one of the best with one of the best tossing him balls.
26.	Greg Jennings
27.	Darren McFadden – all the talent in the world, lots of touches.
28.	Roddy White
29.	Terrell Owens
30.	Marques Colston

Fifth Tier

31.	Marshawn Lynch
32.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Housh looks like a 115 catch guy to me.
33.	Eddie Royal – Marshall moves down, Eddie moves up!
34.	Vincent Jackson
35.	Dwayne Bowe
36.	Derrick Ward – A pretty risky pick considering RB talent in Tampa Bay.
37.	Larry Johnson
38.	Knowshon Moreno – I still believe!
39.	Wes Welker
40.	Jason Witten

Sixth Tier

41.	Reggie Bush
42.	Joseph Addai – Running with something to prove, should be decent.
43.	Chad Johnson
44.	Anthony Gonzalez – This guy is crafty.
45.	Pierre Thomas
46.	Roy Williams
47.	Kurt Warner
48.	Peyton Manning
49.	DeSean Jackson – Has looked better in year 2, moving up my list.
50.	Aaron Rodgers
51.	Phillip Rivers
52.	Antonio Gates
53.	Tony Romo
54.	Donovan McNabb
55.	LenDale White
56.	Felix Jones
57.	Thomas Jones
58.	Julius Jones – No love for JJ, I think he’ll be solid.
59.	Ray Rice
60.	Dallas Clark
61.	Tony Gonzalez

Seventh Tier

62.	Matt Schaub – Please stay healthy and prove me right!
63.	Lee Evans
64.	Bernard Berrien – Brett at least gives Berrien more flavor.
65.	Matt Hasselbeck – Matt’s moving up my list.
66.	Santana Moss
67.	Braylon Edwards
68.	Jonathan Stewart – Many upside here.
69.	Jamal Lewis – His offense may be terrible, but his O-line is solid.
70.	Tim Hightower
71.	Carson Palmer – Hurt again?
72.	Lance Moore
73.	Beanie Wells
74.	Jay Cutler – Looked better than I thought he would, but still not top notch.
75.	Chris Cooley
76.	Matt Ryan – I’m not believing 25+ touchdowns in year 2.
77.	Brandon Marshall – I hear he’s having some problems.

Eighth Tier

78.	Leon Washington – I think he’ll be used more this season.
79.	Cedric Benson
80.	Willie Parker
81.	Hines Ward
82.	Owen Daniels
83.	Greg Olsen
84.	Santonio Holmes
85.	Jericho Cotchery
86.	Antonio Bryant
87.	Devin Hester – Hasn’t shown much in the pre-season, should change though.

Ninth Tier

88.	David Garrard
89.	Matt Cassel
90.	Kellen Winslow – has yet to catch a ball in the pre-season.
91.	Torry Holt
92.	Rashard Mendenhall
93.	Ben Roethlisberger
94.	Donald Brown
95.	Jerious Norwood – One of the best back-up backs in the league.
96.	Darren Sproles
97.	Ahmad Bradshaw – looks really good in the pre-season.
98.	John Carlson
99.	Kyle Orton
100.	Nate Burleson – people are forgetting about him, do.
101.	Donnie Avery – Should be healthy by week one, #1 receiver late.
102.	Derrick Mason – old and good, not unlike the guy right below.
103.	Donald Driver

Tenth Tier

104.	Trent Edwards – Like him with Lee and TO out wide.
105.	Fred Jackson
106.	Kevin Walter
107.	Brett Favre – Hmmm…. I wonder.
108.	Zach Miller
109.	Dominik Hixon
110.	Cadillac Williams – Looked good to me, hope he gets more touches.
111.	LeSean McCoy
112.	Nate Washington – Better than people know, hurt early, good late pick.
113.	Joe Flacco
114.	Josh Morgan
115.	Daunte Culpepper – If the job was his, guarantee, I’d rank him higher.
116.	Chad Pennington
117.	Jason Campbell
118.	Ted Ginn Jr. – Super fast WR coming into his own.
119.	Steve Breaston
120.	Chris Henry – Yes, the #3 is ranked higher than the #2.
121.	Vinsanthe Shiancoe
122.	Earnest Graham
123.	Laveranues Coles
124.	Percy Harvin
125.	Jabar Gaffney
126.	Michael Crabtree – This guy is a soap opera already.
127.	Tony Scheffler
128.	Dustin Keller
129.	Fred Taylor
130.	Kenny Britt – Moving on up, lots of talent.
131.	Kevin Curits – Not sure if his upside is high enough for me to get late.
132.	Correll Buckhalter
133.	Jake Delhomme
134.	Jeremy Shockey
135.	Willis McGahee
136.	Chester Taylor
137.	Michael Bush
138.	Shaun Hill
139.	Eli Manning
140.	James Davis
141.	Shonn Greene – Like his talent, just don’t like 3rd RBs too much.
142.	JaMarcus Russell – has looked solid so far this pre-season.
143.	Le’Ron McClain
144.	Sammy Morris
145.	Justin Forsett

Eleventh Tier

146.	Laurence Maroney
147.	Tashard Choice
148.	Marc Bulger
149.	Chaz Schillens – hurt early, but looks good to me.
150.	Patrick Crayton
151.	Michael Clayton
152.	Isaac Bruce
153.	Joey Galloway
154.	Mark Clayton
155.	Earl Bennett ¬– Not sure he is fast enough.
156.	Maurice Stovall – Could be in line for starting duties.
157.	Brady Quinn
158.	Bobby Engram
159.	Vernon Davis
160.	Mohammad Massoquoi
161.	Peyton Hillis
162.	Hakeem Nicks
163.	Jeremy Maclin – The speedster might be a nice second half pick-up.
164.	Mark Sanchez
165.	Glen Coffee
166.	Steve Smith (NYG)
167.	Chris Chambers
168.	Anthony Fasano
169.	Jamaal Charles
170.	Mike Bell
171.	Sidney Rice
172.	Edgerrin James
173.	Ricky Williams
174.	Troy Williamson – Has the speedster finally arrived?
175.	Deion Branch
176.	Justin Fargas
177.	Brandon Petitgrew
178.	Laurent Robinson – liked him better than Mike Jenkins in ATL too.
179.	Michael Jenkins
180.	Mushin Muhammad
181.	Kevin Boss
182.	Malcom Kelly
183.	Brent Celek
184.	David Clowney – Becoming number two?
185.	Mark Bradley
186.	Miles Austin
187.	Bo Scaife
188.	Ladell Betts
189.	JerMichael Finley
190.	Chris Brown – could be a TD stealer, but I doubt it.
191.	Devone Bess
192.	DeShawn Wynn
193.	Mike Walker
194.	James Jones
195.	Dominic Rhodes
196.	Pierre Garcon
197.	Jordy Nelson
198.	Michael Vick – In deep leagues, maybe?
199.	Limas Sweed – Nate Washington’s targets?
200.	Antwan Randel-El
201.	Deon Butler
202.	Kevin Jones
203.	Jonnie Lee Higgins
204.	Heath Miller
205.	Marion Manningham
206.	Robert Meachem
207.	Brian Robiskie
208.	Chase Coffman
209.	Todd Heap
210.	Brandon Jackson – Could be #2 still, had a tough camp.
211.	Byron Leftwich
212.	Matthew Stafford
213.	Kerry Collins
214.	Sage Rosenfels – So much for sleeper, thanks Brett!
215.	Matt Leinart
216.	Vince Young
217.	Chad Henne
218.	Samkon Gado
219.	Bernard Scott
220.	Tarvaris Jackson – Mr. Irrelevant could play well if he gets the chance.

2009 Tiered Fantasy Rankings: Tight Ends

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TE’s are kind of an afterthought on draft day, I never spend much on them (in terms of auction dollars or high draft picks) but a consistent point scorer at TE is tough to come by. I’ve always figured that if you don’t get a Top 5 guy, one should just wait until the end to take a chance on a kid with high upside. This year seems a little different in my book, as many young pass catching TE’s have nice upside in ’09. Not only that but after the Top 5, there’s plenty of guys that could have big years, and should put up points week in and week out. Not much seperates the 2nd class from themselves, but hopefully my tiers can help you out with the Top 25 TE’s in ’09.

I

  1. Jason Witten (1)
  2. Antonio Gates (2)
  3. Dallas Clark (3)
  4. Tony Gonzalez (4)

This is the top tier, and top it is. The rest of the TE’s aren’t likely to finish in the Top 4, as these guys basically have the spot on lockdown. Witten is my #1 because he’s a TE and a #1 option on his offense without too much taking away touches from him. Think Tony Gonzalez in KC last season, but a better QB for Witten in Dallas. Gates is still a stud despite injuries nagging on his numbers the last couple years. Despite Vincent Jackson’s rise in SD, Gates is still the #1 receiving option, and I expect him to have his best season in the last 3 years. Dallas Clark will be Peyton Manning’s #2 or #3 this season. With Marvin gone, Anthony G and Clark will get a majority of Marvin’s old target, which makes Clark that much more of a solid TE. Tony G might be the best TE of all time, no doubt about it, but he is in a new offense with a lot of talent surrounding him. He’ll do big things in Atlanta, but I don’t think there’s enough balls to get Gonzo as many catches as he had last season. He’s still a top tier guy, but the bottom of that barrell.

II

  1. Chris Cooley (5)
  2. Kellen Winslow (6)

All by themselves in my second tier are Chris Cooley and Kellen Winslow. Cooley never really gets his due, and despite a semi-slow year for the Redskin passing attack in ’08, Cooley should be back in the Top 5 in ’09. Cooley is a big reliable target for Jason Campbell, a quarterback I see taking a big jump in 2009. With much of the focus on Portis and Moss, Cooley will find himself collecting fantasy points like Bengals collect arrests. Kellen Winslow is in a new uniform in ’09 and he’s still one of the most talented TEs out there. Winslow might not have the best QB getting him the ball, but he will have plenty of opportunities to make himself a valueable option for fantasy owners. He’s risky, but the kid is tough and plays through bumps and bruises and low grade muscle tears. I don’t think you’ll regret having Winslow fill your TE spot.

III

  1. Owen Daniels (7)
  2. Zach Miller (8)
  3. Greg Olson (9)
  4. John Carlson (10)

Owen Daniels is the highest returning scorer of this group, and a good argument could be made for him being included in the 2nd tier, but this is my ranking system and I’ll do what I want. Owen sure accumulates the catches, but I think Slaton gets more involved this year, Schaub likes to throw to his receivers, and something in me just sees Owen taking a tiny little step backwards. Still a solid TE option, but not a Top 5 guy. Zach Miller is a stud. JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders look like they are going to be better offensively this season. McFadden is going to play well and the other Raider runners will draw attention too. Russell likes going to Miller, and why not? Sure hands, big body, a QB’s best friend. Greg Olson is shooting up draft boards everywhere because he and Jay Cutler apparently have “chemistry” – ooh that sexy little word. One thing is true, Olson just jacked the starting TE job in Chicago. Another thing, he’s probably got the best hands amongst receivers. Cutler likes it when his guys catch his passes. Not a Top 5 guy in my opinion, but he’s in the Top 10, and his upside is nice. Carlson looks good to me too. I know Jim Mora likes utilizing talented tight ends, and Carlson proved he was one of those in his rookie season where he was the best pass catcher in Seattle. This year he might not lead the team in catches, but he’ll get his fair share, especially if the Hawks offense improves as much as I think they will.

IV

  1. Jeremy Shockey (11)
  2. Visanthe Shiancoe (12)
  3. Tony Scheffler (13)
  4. Anthony Fasano (14)
  5. Dustin Keller (15)
  6. Chase Coffman (16)
  7. Vernon Davis (17)
  8. Brandon Petitgrew (18)
  9. Kevin Boss (19)
  10. Heath Miller (20)
  11. Todd Heap (21)
  12. Bo Scaife (22)
  13. Brent Celek (23)
  14. Jermichael Finley (24)

You’re in a weird league if you need 24 ranked TEs, but if you need more than that I can’t help you. If you think I’m not a fan of TE’s, you’re right on the button. But they are a nessecary evil in most situations, and any of these guys could give you what you need: a big athletic lineman type player that lucks out and catches a touchdown now and then. Right, so Shockey heads my list because he has high upside, a starting job, and he’s real athletic when he catches the ball. He’s in the same tier as unproven TEs that may or may not fizzle out and become nothing because of the whole “when he catches the ball” thing. But he could be great. Shaincoe is very underrated, so I put him here. I think Rosenfels will look for him often. Fasano is solid, will get points and his 15 yard routes are perfect because that’s where Chad Pennington’s arm limits out. Seriously. Dustin Keller has tons of talent and has the most speed on the list, but Kellen Clemmens scares me and the other option is a rookie. Chase Coffman already had more talent than any other TE in Cinci, but now the other guys are injured, and he might walk into TE production right off the bat. Upside. Speaking of upside, draft bust Vernon Davis might finally be a TE worth having now that Martz is gone (where is Martz these days anyway?). But Vernon knows how to disappoint, click clack style. Petitgrew is a young all around solid TE in an offense that will likely see it’s fair share of Matthew Stafford – and he might be the 2nd best receiving option in Detroit. Kevin Boss, he is the TE for the highest paid QB in the NFL – just saying that makes my puke. But Boss doesn’t have sure-fire receiving options on the outside, and he might be the guy that makes up for Burress’s absence. Miller and Heap. Miller won’t ever be grand but Heap might never be fantasy worthy again. Both have their place though, Miller because he manages to catch TDs and is pretty consistent in points, and Heap because he was pro-bowl material for a few years there. Bo Scaife broke onto the scene last year, but I think his production falls a bit as Collins (or Young) become more confident in the receiving options in Tennessee. Brent Celek put up solid numbers in Philadelphia, and now he’s the main guy at TE in that offense. Still, there’s too many talented players on that team for him to acrue too many numbers, right? And last is a back-up, with lots of upside, Finley. Green Bay really likes this kid, but he’s also option #6 or so, just like Celek, but keep an eye out!

2009 Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers

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Wide receivers and their tiers are very important on draft day. Because of the up and down ways of the position, their reliance on many other positions, the break out candidates in comparison to the every-year studs, and their overall effectiveness on a weekly basis, tiers are the only way to rank this position. Often times the guy ranked 20th and the guy ranked 40th are so close in production (both in predictions and actual numbers) that reaching for receivers – after the top ranked guys are gone – is as ridiculous as taking a defense in the 8th round. Follow the tiers, and get who you want, but overpaying for a “hopeful” could hinder you all season long. I’ve also took into account “upside” which I think is very important with a receiver. Taking late chances on guys with upside makes more sense than a sure thing 500 yard 4 touchdown guy. Believe me. Good luck!

I

  1. Andre Johnson (1)
  2. Larry Fitzgerald (2)
  3. Randy Moss (3)

I would love one of these three. Andre is a beast, I’ve always been fond of him, and Larry Fitzgerald laughs in the face of the double team. Randy Moss has his quarterback back, and while the all time TD season for receivers probably won’t be repeated, somewhere in the teens seems likely, and that’s an awesome year for pretty much any player. I do like AJ as my #1, that offense will be that much better this season. Plus Larry Fitz is on the cover of Madden, that moves him out of the top spot right there. Believe it!

II

  1. Steve Smith (4)
  2. Calvin Johnson (5)

Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson are very close to my top tier and also very close to the next 4 guys, but that puts them right smack dab in their own little tier. Smith has all the ability in the world and a quarterback that loves to throw him the ball. The problem is, there really isn’t a #2 receiving threat on that team, so everything Steve does is watched with a careful eye. That being said, he’s probably the most dangerous receiver in the game, because he still does work. Calvin Johnson is a freak of nature, and if he were on any team with a better passing attack than Detroit, I’d value him higher. One of these days he’s going to be the best receiver in the game, I just don’t think we’re quite there yet.

III

  1. Anquan Boldin (6)
  2. Greg Jennings (7)
  3. Roddy White (8)
  4. Reggie Wayne (9)

Anquan Boldin was originally behind Jennings and White on my list, but looking into his game moves him up for me. Sure, there’s injury concern there, but only because the guy does everything and catches anything thrown close to him. You know Kurt Warner will feed him the ball, and if Bolding gets touches and stays healhty, he’s a Top 5 guy, so I moved him up. Greg Jennings and Roddy White are guys I predict to finish just a hair behind Boldin this season. Both have great young quarterbacks, a physical receiving style, and tricky speed that gets them behind defenders game after game. These two guys will be great #1 options this season. The only thing bringing them to my 3rd tier is the way I see their offenses changing a bit. Some of Roddy’s touches will go to Tony Gonzalez and Harry Douglas (the talented #3 in Atlanta) and I doubt Ryan Grant will rush for just 4 TDs this season, meaning a couple of those might come out of Jennings’ stats. Still, both these guys are legit #1’s. I love Reggie Wayne, and so does Peyton Manning, who last time I checked is a really good quarterback. And I think he will be a legit #1 this season, however, for the first time in a long time, I’m not sure about the Colts. That’s right, Peyton had his own questions this off-season, and despite claims that all looks peachy, questions are rarely a good thing. Will Reggie struggle? No, I don’t think so, but just thinking about change drops him a bit in my list.

IV

  1. Brandon Marshall (10)
  2. Terrell Owens (11)
  3. Marques Colston (12)
  4. Dwayne Bowe (13)

Brandon Marshall maybe be all clown, but the kid can run with and catch a football with the best of them. You know the Broncos are going to throw the rock, and I know they are going to get double digit TDs from Marshall. I can only imagine that Marshall becomes the Randy Moss of the Broncos offense, and that will put him in the Top 10. TO may be in Buffalo where apparently “they have no offense” but I’m sold on him being in the Top 15 at seasons end, even though he’s collecting years well into his 30s and plays in icy Buffalo. Edwards is an accurate passer, the O-line looks more cohesive this season, Lee Evans is a game breaker on the opposite side, this is the best receiving partner TO has had in a while now. The running game is legit for the Bills. I see a nice year from the drama king, but I’m not sure he’ll be a Top 10 guy. Colston is a beast, catches everything, has great body control and can run. His coach is a not to be trusted with talent. I love Colston and he’ll probably have a big year, but there’s questions there that drop him into my 4th tier. Dwayne Bowe has tons of talent, is going to be one of the leagues best receivers in the next few years, but I think the KC offense struggles a little bit this season. Matt Cassel is supposed to have all the answers, but I’m not so sure they’ll be this season. New coach, new QB, new schemes – could be great, but lots of ifs.

V

  1. TJ Houshmandzadeh  (14)
  2. Eddie Royal (15)
  3. Wes Welker (16)
  4. Vincent Jackson (17)
  5. Roy Willians (18)

I love TJ going to Seattle, but only if Hasselbeck is healthy all season. Big question. Still, if Housh can put up the numbers he did last season in Cinci where the whold circus seemed to be going down around him, I think he’ll be just fine in Seattle. His reception total should get up around 100. Eddie Royal is going to play the Wes Welker role, and I have to be honest, I like his talent more than Wes. I also think Orton will be looking for him because Royal catches everything and runs brilliant routes. Wes Welker has his main QB back, and even last year Welker was a catch machine. More touchdowns than ’08 move him into my Top 20. Vincent Jackson will be more consistent this season than he was last. I see him catching at least 70 balls which will get him up aroudn 1200 yards or more. Rivers is solid, that running game keeps the defense’s attention, Jackson will move up the charts. Roy Williams is my biggest risk in my 5th tier, but the guy has great hands and all the speed in the world. He runs duck-footed, which scares me a bit, but Tony Romo is a great QB, that running game is tough with 3 good runners, and Jason Witten will get enough attention to give Roy room to work. He’ll have a good ’09.

VI

  1. Chad “Johnson” Ochocinco (19)
  2. Anthony Gonzalez (20)
  3. Lee Evans (21)
  4. Lance Moore (22)
  5. Braylon Edwards (23)

If you’re a veteren reader of my rankings, you’ll know that I was never a huge fan of Chad Johnson’s up and down weeks that always seemed to compile good year-long numbers. He’s a very talented receiver with a quarterback that possesses all the tools, and TJ’s not around to compete with Ocho as a #1 target. However, he’s streaky, he’s a little bit of a personality question mark, and I’m still ranking him higher than most sites. Will he be a Top 10? I think those years are over, but in the Top 20, you bet. Anthony Gonzalez should come into his own this year. As the sure-fire #2 and with Marvin gone, and the fact that Anthony was always very productive with Marvin out, Gonzalez is going to have a nice year. I have him ranked higher than most. Lee Evans may get some targets taken away from him, but no longer will he be constantly swarmed with double teams. TO, if anything, takes that away. Less targets but less attention could mean one of Lee’s biggest seasons. Lance Moore is getting absolutely NO love from the fantasy world. After a huge breakout season where he basically became Brees’ top option in New Orleans, I’ve seen Lance sit around 40. I guess I’m buying into what last season sold, call me a believer in Moore’s hands. Braylon Edwards showed lots of potential a couple seasons ago. But the Browns have fallen hard, and his drops have played a big role. This season he will be in a Man-Jina offensive system, but only if he gets in shape and doesn’t get into the dog house. I think he’ll be solid, but selecting him is high risk and possibly very high reward.

VII

  1. Hines Ward (24)
  2. Antonio Bryant (25)
  3. Torry Holt (26)
  4. Bernard Berrien (27)
  5. Santana Moss (28)
  6. Santonio Holmes (29)
  7. DeSean Jackson (30)
  8. Jericho Cotchery (31)
  9. Dominik Hixon (32)
  10. Devin Hester (33)
  11. Laveranues Coles (34)
  12. Derrick Mason (35)
  13. Donald Driver (36)
  14. Kevin Walter (37)
  15. Josh Morgan (39)

Alright, I can’t talk about every single guy left on the list, but these guys are all very useable players. People say receiver is a shallow position this year, I think that’s a joke. I just think that there’s not much value in drafting any of the guys not in the Top 23 early. Wait, relax, breathe, and you might find a late steal on guys that fill out your receiver position like Santana Moss, Torry Holt, Jericho Cotchery, DeSean Jackson, Dominik Hixon, Devin Hester, and even sure thing performers like Mason and Driver, not to mention a load of young guys getting a chance to prove themselves this year. The people that think Hester won’t improve at all in his 2nd year at playing receiver are just plain crazy. Even without Cutler the guy would get better, Jay is just an added rocket fire arm bonus. Hixon is getting no love at all, and I think he’ll be the top Giant receiver, easily. Holt could be great in Jacksonville, I mean sure, he’s old, but he’s always open and Garrard and the Jags have never had a receiver with his type of talent – could be a nice year to take a chance on the wiley old vet. Josh Morgan? Face it, Royal and Morgan would have destroyed college football if they had a QB that could throw in college. Morgan is going to be the top receiving option in SF too. There’s options here, they just aren’t top notch guys, but I would love to have a couple of these guys on my squad.

VIII

  1. Hakeem Nicks (40)
  2. Steve Breaston (41)
  3. Ted Ginn Jr. (42)
  4. Deion Branch (43)
  5. Earl Bennett (44)
  6. Michael Crabtree (45)
  7. Donnie Avery (46)
  8. Nate Washington (47)
  9. Percy Harvin (48)
  10. Mike Walker (49)
  11. Nate Burleson (50)
  12. Patrick Crayton (51)
  13. Bobby Engram (52)
  14. Michael Jenkins (53)
  15. Mark Clayton (54)
  16. Mark Bradley (55)
  17. Isaac Bruce (56)
  18. Chaz Schilens (57)
  19. Chris Henry (58)
  20. Mushin Muhammad (59)

This list is full of huge upside, high risk, low risk, guaranteed numbers, possible goose eggs – but they rank out from 40-59 on my list. A guy like Deion Branch might get back to his best seasons with another option like Housh in town. When Branch has been healthy and in the game, he’s done well. Earl Bennett, Jay Cutler was his college QB, the know each other well, that’s something I’d like to have as a receiver. Crabtree has unreal ability. Get into camp young fella. Mushin is going to get some scores and catches and yards too, even though he’s older than time. Then you have a guy like Percy Harvin, he’s going to get targets and rushes, the Vikings drafted the RB/WR combo in the 1st round, believe me, they have plans for him. There’s lots of upside here, like I said, and then you have the Crayton’s, Engram’s, and Bruce’s of the world. Not much in terms of upside, but guaranteed numbers. I personally like to take low round chances on high upside receivers, Walker, Harvin, Avery, Bennett, those are a couple I think could do work this season.

IX

  1. Jeremy Maclin (60)
  2. Kenny Britt (61)
  3. James Jones (62)
  4. Jordy Nelson (63)
  5. Sidney Rice (64)
  6. Pierre Garcon (65)
  7. Dwayne Jarrett (66)
  8. Antwan Randel-El (67)
  9. Chris Chambers (68)
  10. Mike Thomas (69)
  11. Patrick Turner (70)
  12. Derrick Williams (71)

This last list is full of young guys with big question marks. Maclin has all the speed but what about the route running? I think James Jones could be a nice #2 somewhere in the league, but Jordy Nelson is pushing him for the #2 spot – it’s tough. I’ve heard good things from Garon, Mike Thomas, and Patrick Turner – lots of talent, but these guys have shown nothing in the NFL, making them a risky pick – but you can get them late, last round late, and that’s always worth a shot.

2009 Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs

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Running backs are the key to fantasy football. If you blow your first two picks on a receiver and a quarterback, you have to really luck out to find yourself in the playoffs come Week 14 (or where ever you start the post-season). The same can be said for blowing your first two picks, if your top two studs start slow or get hurt, you’ll find yourself in an early season hole. These tiered rankings should help you find value at the running back position throughout your draft.

I

  1. Maurice Jones-Drew (1)
  2. Matt Forte (2)
  3. Adrian Peterson (3)
  4. Michael Turner (4)

My first tier is bigger than most, with a different order than most. What can I say, it pays to be different. Almost every ranking I’ve seen has Peterson and Turner or Turner and Peterson cuddling up like puppies at the top of their player rankings. Not me, oh no, not I. Talent-wise, sure, Peterson takes the cake, but Percy Harvin only takes away from his touches, and the guy is going to take one to many hits one of these days. Production-wise, I see how he can go #1, but right in front of Turner at #3 is where I have AP. Turner was a stud last year and despite the high carry load in ’08, I predict his ’09 will be right in the top tier of backs. He doesn’t have too much wear on his tires, but his team has only gotten stronger in the talented weapon department. His back-up is talented, and added to one of the best young receivers in the game is probably the best receiving TE ever, Tony Gonzalez. Less touches for Turner means less fantasy production, but still plenty of action to be considered a top pick. With everyone’s Top 2 at 3 and 4 respectively, that means my top 2 looks a little different. Matt Forte busts in at 2 on my sheets, as he should be smiling from ear to ear at the addition of Jay Cutler. I don’t think Forte will catch as many passes as last season, Cutler’s not much of a dump down guy, but he will get a lot of carries, he will be playing against defenses that have to worry about the air attack, and thus his YPC will go from 3.9 to 4.4 – at least that’s what I’ve got. That moves his production up – and last year his production was consistent and legit. Forte will be great, but MJD will be better. That offensive line is healthy and stocked with more talent than it’s ever been. Jones Drew will aproach 18-20 carries a game, and that is what gets him to the top of my chart. He’s never been a high-touch back, but he’s always been a big time game breaker, touchdown maker, and fantasy producer. That’s a lot of ers, but they are all good. When you add 8-10 more touches a game to his talent, you get the best fantasy back in the league.

II

  1. LaDainian Tomlinson (5)
  2. Chris Johnson (6)
  3. Steve Slaton (7)
  4. Frank Gore (8)
  5. Steven Jackson (9)
  6. Brian Westbrook (10)

My 2nd tier is 2 backs heavier than my 1st, which means I have a lot of guys resting near the same value. Which means I’d rather be at the end of drafts, picking in the 8-12 slot – you’re guaranteed a good one, maybe not sexy, but sexy gets you money as a playboy model, not a spot in fantasy playoffs. LT gets the 5th spot on my list. Dude may be 30, but he’s one of the best backs of all time, and he’ll be a great option again this year. This might be the last year LT breaks my top 10, but I’d love to get him on my squad, especially where he’s going in most drafts (about 10th overall). Chris Johnson is a stud, and many have him pegged with more touches in 2009, but I’m not so sure. LenDale White is a productive big man, and he’s in as good a shape as he’s ever been in since somebody gave him his first twinky. People are stupid, they jump on the “fat” band wagon, but White is in good shape and will steal yards and touchdowns from the owners taking Chris Johnson in the Top 5. However, he’s still worth an early pick, and he has as much upside as anyone. He’s the Usain Bolt of running backs, on a different speed level than everyone else. Steve Slaton is a flat out stud on a team that will be one of the Top 10 offenses in 2009, and a lot of that has to do with his all around skill set. Great receiver, great runner inside, outside – he does it all. He may be small, but all he needs to do is stay healthy to easily be a top 10 back in his 2nd season. Gore is a great player on and offense that should be improved in ’09. It is also an offense that won’t go away from their main guy. If healthy, Gore is as talented as any back in the league, and with a new smash mouth approach, he’ll be a nice top 10 guy. Steven Jackson is a beast, and while I dig his talent, his offense is young and Marc Bulger is a sack artist – or at least a canvas for other sack artists. That won’t help the Rams stay in running situations. But Jackson might go back to his early years, and I expect his rushing yards to be easily over 1000 while his receiving yards get up to 600+ yards as well. Will the Rams be in touchdown position that often? That’s why he slips a bit. Brian Westbrook is old, yes, but he stays in my 2nd tier because all he does is produce. He was pretty inconsistent last season, despite his nice end-game numbers, most of his stats came in big chunks. Still, this offense only gets better with additions of young talent, and Westy should be back to his old tricks (even though his age is catching up to his injury history) and still deserves to be a Top 10 back.

III

  1. DeAngelo Williams (11)
  2. Marion Barber (12)
  3. Kevin Smith (13)
  4. Brandon Jacobs (14)
  5. Clinton Portis (15)
  6. Ronnie Brown (16)
  7. Ryan Grant (17)

My 3rd tier has some stars from last year, yester year, and the future. DeAngelo Williams had a great year last season, better than any other back in the league, but Jonathan Stewart will stay healthy this year, and while that won’t make Williams a bum, it will keep him out of the Top 10. He’s a solid runner on a run-happy team, if he didn’t have one of the league’s most talented backs teaming up with him in the backfield then he’d easily bust into the Top 10. Marion Barber is a beast, one of my favorite backs in the league. He struggled as the Cowboys struggled last year, but before his injury he was a Top 5 back. This year he falls a bit because I can only imagine Felix Jones getting more carries, and even though Dallas will run more in ’09, Barber will be lucky to slip into the Top 10, but he’s still a solid #2 for your fantasy squad. Kevin Smith isn’t getting as much love as he deserves. Last year, on one of the worst teams in NFL history (worst record-wise) Kevin still rushed for just under 1000 yards and caught 39 passes as well. He’ll be a go to guy in this offense, an offense that is getting tougher up front. Brandon Jacobs is a beast, the scarriest guy to tackle in the NFL, but he’s a really big guy that runs fast, and that’s cause for concern (injury-wise and for defensive health). Jacobs will get his 100+ and a TD if he’s playing, that’s almost a given, but defenses will key in on him this coming season, and his health could easily have him missing the better part of 3-4 games. Still, with 12 games starting he’s a Top 15 player. He loses some in PPR leagues though. Clinton Portis is always good. He was a surprise fantasy all-star in the first half of last season, going for 940 yards and 7 TDs. He finished slow, like the Redskins, but still managed 1487 yards and 9 TDs and just over 1700 total yards for the season. He’s only 27 when the season starts. But he’s older than his age insists, and while I’d love to see him prove me wrong, it will be tough for him to duplicate last season’s stellar stats. He’s still a great #2 though. Ronnie Brown gets a lot of flak for getting most of his fantasy points in one week last season against New England. But I don’t worry about that. He’ll get more carries, more catches, and more touchdowns this season, and he’ll do it more consistently. A great all around back 2 years after knee surgery. Remember 2007 when he tore up the first half of the season? His numbers will be closer to that than last year’s totals. Ryan Grant is a beast. He started slow, hung on to a naggnig hammy injury, and got carries taken away from him during the first half. But this year his TDs will double, and he’ll run more efficiently. He runs down hill really hard, expect better things from him – I do.

IV

  1. Larry Johnson (18)
  2. Darren McFadden (19)
  3. Knowshon Moreno (20)
  4. Derrick Ward (21)
  5. Marshawn Lynch (22)
  6. Jonathan Stewart (23)

I might rank LJ higher than everyone else. I guess I remember the guy that buried opposing defenders when they got in his way. He was a beast teaming up with Preist Holmes, and he was even better when he got the #1 gig a year later. Some stuff has happened, he was carrying a lot of baggage, and he didn’t get many carries last season. It won’t take the new coach long to realize that he’s a top option on the team, and he’ll get back to scoring touchdowns and getting 20 touches a game. McFadden is too talented to struggle again. Last season was last season, you can’t always rely on what happened last year when drafting your team. Take a chance on a kid with all the talent in the world on a team that is gung-ho about getting him the ball – even if they are a semi-pro franchise. Knowshon may be a rookie, and he may be in the same scheme that never produced a Top 20 fantasy back in New England, but he does it all. He may not have the best 40, but there’s players that get it, run well in pads, and go fast enough to win – that’s Moreno, he’ll show it in his rookie season. Derrick Ward is a very good runner that can do all the little things. I honestly think he’s a better back than Jacobs, because he can catch too. I expect him to get most of the looks in Tampa, and that line is better than many people think. Marshawn Lynch will only play 13 games – but so what, so will a lot of running backs this season. You’ll be able to get him late for missing the first three games. Do it. Then even later pick up Fred Jackson, now you have a starting back, a good one, for two later picks. Lynch doesn’t get huge numbers, but he always gets solid stats, that helps your squad win every week. Jonathan Stewart, in my cocky opinion, is the best running back on this list, but he’s got a great back he’s sharing time with. Still, if Williams and Stewart are more even this season, splitting stats 50-50, that still makes for over 1170 yards and 14 touchdowns for J-Stew – that’s good production where he’s being drafted. Plus his upside is unlimited.

V

  1. Pierre Thomas (24)
  2. Reggie Bush (25)
  3. Joseph Addai (26)
  4. LenDale White (27)
  5. Ray Rice (28)
  6. Felix Jones (29)
  7. Beanie Wells (30)
  8. Thomas Jones (31)
  9. Julius Jones (32)
  10. Willie Parker (33)
  11. Cedric Benson (34)

Pierre Thomas would be ranked higher if I thought his coach would do anything right. The kid is talented, always has been, always produces when given the chance, and was the best back in NO last season. That being said, that clown in a man-suit running the Saints isn’t to be trusted, but Pierre is still Top 20. Even if he runs less, Bush is still a great receiver out of the backfield, and was having a pretty damn good fantasy season before an injury derailed his year. The Clown loves him, so he’ll get his touches. Bush is still magic with the football when he’s in space, he’s worth a pick in the 6th or 7th, where he’s being drafted. Addai might be good again this year, you never know, but it doesn’t seem like the Colts trust him much. That’s not a franchise that wastes early picks, and them taking a great all around college back in the 1st round doesn’t bread confidence in Addai. Still, Joseph is young and he’s had a couple pretty good years in a pretty potent offense – sounds like a buy low candidate to me. LenDale White can’t find love anywhere but here. You might think I just like fat running backs, but if you think LenDale is just a fat guy then you are an idiot. The guy can run the ball, always has been able to, and gets in the end-zone. This year he lost 20 lbs in the summer, and he’s in better shape than anytime in his career. Everyone can hate him, I’ll “round” off my Top 20 with his name. Ray Rice is in an interesting situation. The Ravens have put him as the #1, but you could argue that Le’Ron and Willis have shown better skills than Rice. Still, the Ravens see something, and they can pound the rock. Ray can compile the yards as a smart runner, a pretty good style for the Ravens offensive scheme. Felix Jones is amazing. If he stays healthy and gets the touches Dallas wants him to get, even this will be too low for his total output. But he’s a little-ish guy, and he has been hurt a few times. He’ll get a lot of TO’s touches though, so he’s definitely flex-worthy. Beanie Wells gets here on talent alone. He’s really big and really fast, which like I’ve said, is a recipe for injury. Still, he gets into a pretty nice offensive situation and should be able to beat out Hightower and his 2.8 YPC. Beanie is talented. Julius Jones might be an after-thought to everyone, but look at his stats, if you give him the ball 20 times he will do work for you. It happened in Dallas, and last year Seattle, and before both of those in Notre Dame. Julius is the unquestioned started in Seattle, and could prove to be a nice #2 for fantasy owners that take a chance on him. Willie Parker just keeps doing work. He won the job from Rashard Mendenhall (who I think is the better running in Pitt) last season, and put up pretty mediocre numbers while missing 5 games. His totals still project like a Top 25 back over 16 games, but I don’t think he’ll be the guy getting 20 carries next year, Rashard ruins some of Willie’s value. Cedric Benson is a nice story. He never figured it out in Chicago, but he found a home in Cincinnati last year, and cleaned up his act. That’s not how it usually goes, but give the guy two stars for swimming against the flow. Benson could benefit from Palmer being back in Tiger stripes, as his YPC and touchdown chances should go up this season.

VI

  1. Rashard Mendenhall (35)
  2. Jamal Lewis (36)
  3. Donald Brown (37)
  4. Darren Sproles (38)

Backups and Jamal Lewis. Lewis still isn’t “old” but he is old. Age doesn’t tell the whole story, but the guy has many miles on his tires. Still, Mangini has a decent offensive line in Cleveland, and Lewis is the guy that should get the ball. Not much to be scared of from Cleveland’s offense, unless they revert back to 2007, but Lewis should still be able to get over 1000 and 6 touchdowns as the #1 in Ohio. Mendenhall, who I have ranked just ahead of Lewis, is super talented. I thought him and J-Stew were the best backs in last year’s rookie class. He got hurt early, and couldn’t unseat Willie Parker prior to that, but he looked solid against one of the league’s best defenses (Baltimore) before they knocked him out for the year. Plus I really like him. If he gets the carries, he’ll be an epic steal on draft day. Donald Brown looks like a pro back to me, a solid one. Joseph Addai has never really impressed me as a runner. He’s still a rookie and he’s still a back-up, but you never know, and I’d like to have this guy just in case. Darren Sproles might have a case for being the more productive back in San Diego late last year. He certainly did more with his opportunity, and made himself a lot of money in the process. He’s still a back-up this season, and LT does it all, but Sproles might get enough love to be ownable all year long, as a back-up/flex – not just an injury replacement. Those are the best kinds of back-ups to own.

VII

  1. Fred Jackson (39)
  2. Leon Washington (40)
  3. Jerious Norwood (41)

Fred Jackson has done pretty good work when given the chance in Buffalo. This season he’ll get 3 games as the starter for the Bills, and if he succeeds in those 3 games, I don’t think the Bills can continue to give Lynch 85% of the carries. Jackson is a great late pick-up that could be a starting RB the first few weeks – plus he has nice upside. Leon Washington is obviously the back the Jets value more than any other. But Thomas Jones was a Top 10 fantasy back last season. It will be interesting to see what kind of touches Washington gets this year, but I’m guessing it’s more than he got last season. He’s always done well when give the chance, the problem is, this late, what kind of chance will he get? He’s a lot like Sproles, but Washington has a rookie QB or Kellen Clemmens as his signal caller – hello 8 man fronts. Jerious Norwood, a YPC machine and a guy that can take it the distance any time. He’s a great hand-cuff for Turner owners because he’s startable even as a back-up. I wouldn’t want in my starting line-up every week, but last year I was happy to have him on more than a couple occasions.

VIII

  1. Tim Hightower (42)
  2. Chester Taylor (43)
  3. LeSean McCoy (44)
  4. Ahmad Bradshaw (45)
  5. Willis McGahee (46)
  6. Le’Ron McClain (47)
  7. Fred Taylor (48)
  8. Sammy Morris (49)
  9. Michael Bush (50)
  10. Laurence Maroney (51)
  11. Shonn Greene (52)
  12. Justin Fargas (53)
  13. Ricky Williams (54)

Alright, this is my last list, and I’m putting them all in the same tier because I’m not so sure that I would be excited on having any of these guys on my team. Maybe the upside of McCoy, Ahmad Bradshaw’s chance at sure thing numbers when Jacobs gets hurt, Chester Taylor because he’s a very good back with a good O-line, even though he’s stuck behind one of the most physically talented backs in a long time, if not ever, and Tim Hightower, becaue there’s a good chance he’ll start. So maybe those four guys should all be in a different tier, but I have to be honest, they’re upside might not match up with the opportunity some of these guys will get. Willis still has talent, if he wasn’t in a little dog house behind two other backs, McClain does well with his touches, but doesn’t get much guaranteed to him. Fred Taylor has always put up numbers and might, just might be the #1 in New England, but that’s a team that I can’t predict carries for, so I wouldn’t want to rely on him. Sammy Morris, same thing as Fred. Plus Laurence Maroney is the guy I think is most talented. Michael Bush has all the tools and is a beast, but he’s behind a first round pick who has better tools, and another guy that has been productive as a starter, Justin Fargas. Shonn Greene is a rookie, and will probably be the thunder to Leon’s lightning next season, but I wouldn’t expect a ton from him this year. And then there’s Ricky Williams, what’s a running back list without Ricky? I think Ronnie Brown should get an even bigger portion of the load this coming season, really limiting Ricky’s stock.

That’s the list, hop that helps!

Fantasy Baseball Preview: Tiered Outfielder Rankings

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Obviously Fantasy Baseball doesn’t get as much love from my site as Fantasy Football, but Football is over for a while, and Fantasy Baseball drafts have already begun. If you need a little help with your positional rankings for “points” leagues, this is the place to go. Rotisserie leagues are different, so don’t get them confused. Here are rankings for leagues that reward points for total bases (1 per base) steals (1) RBI (1) BB (1) Runs (1) Strike Outs (-1)… I’m putting them in Tiers, because that’s the only way rankings should be organized – hope you enjoy!

Outfield is not a position crowded with top heavy performers – at least not last season. Of the Top 10 only Carlos Beltran and Manny Ramirez make the list. Not even 100 points separate 2nd and 21st on the list of outfielders, and there are tons of young guys that could make a splash. Think of last years top 20, you’ll find guys like Josh Hamilton, Nate McLouth, Carlos Quentin, Raul Ibanez, Ryan Ludwick, Brian Giles, Shane Victorino and more in this season’s top 25… These are names that nobody thought would enter the fray, or nobody picked like a Top 25 fantasy outfielder – and there will be more this year. My point is this, if you are drafting early, I would save my money or 1st round draft picks for non-outfielders. Overspending for a position of strength is silly, especially with guys like Andre Eithier, Xavier Nady, Brad Hawpe, and Milton Bradley will fly way under the radar, and guys like Carlos Lee, Soriano, and Vernon Wells will have lost value because of injury filled seasons – that’s not even mentioning youngsters like Carlos Gomez, Cameron Maybin, Nelson Cruz and Denard Span. The outfield spot isn’t stuffed with top producers, but it does have a flurry of startable players – that screams quarterback, and that means don’t ever reach. That being said, I would love some of these top stars, I’m just willing to let them fall to me.

There’s a little exert about each player in my Top 3 Tiers – I have also listed a fantasy upside and downside for each player in my Top 5 Tiers – they correlate with the upside and downside that I think each player could accumulate this coming season, barring injury.

Here’s my Top 30….

Tier 1

1. Josh Hamilton – I may be the only one with Josh Hamilton as my top rated fantasy outfielder, but that’s a limb I don’t mind climbing out on – hell, I’ll jump up and down on that sucker and see how it holds. In his first full season in the Majors, all Josh did was club 32HRs with 130RBI while batting .300+ – But even more amazing, I watched this guy swing the bat. Yes folks, it’s not all about numbers, and I’m willing to say that there are very few players with the power upside of Hamilton – he can make a wood bat crack with the best of them. I think he’ll hit more HRs, have more RBIs, and strikeout less in 2009 – that gets him to the top spot in my points league. What people don’t realize about Hamilton is his athleticism is off the charts – he’s faster and more agile than most anyone knows, and his numbers will prove it this season. (Fantasy Upside: Not reached yet, but…  .315, 45HRs, 145RBI, 15SB – Downside – .290, 30HRs, 120RBI, 5SB)

2. Grady Sizemore – I have a lot of love for Grady’s game because he does it all. Also, I tackled this guy a couple times in high school, so there’s that personal connection that moves him that much further up my list. Grady is only 26 and garnered career highs in HRs and RBI last season with 33 and 90 respectively. As a leadoff hitter, those 91 RBI are impressive. He managed his worst batting average of his career, but that’s one of the most ridiculous stats in baseball. That will go up this season and I’m predicting his big numbers stay about the same – his power stroke is magic. This super-athlete could hit 40-40 before his career is over. (Fantasy Upside: .300, 35HRs, 100RBI, 40SB – .268, 28HRs, 78RBI, 30SB)

3. Carlos Beltran – How ESPN rates Beltran as the 11th best outfielder last season is beyond me. He’s magic in rotisserie, as he does it all, and he finished atop the OF list in points leagues be a pretty nice margin. He had his lowest HR output in the last 3 seasons, managing only 27 long balls, but he also had his highest batting average, played his most complete season since 2002, and did everything for the Mets. Carlos might not be the 40-40 guy many hoped he’d be, at 31 he may have reached his high point, but this guy is always good, and always better going down the stretch. Also, his Ks and BBs are very similar, so he won’t lose you points there.  (Fantasy Upside: .285, 33HRs, 116RBI, 25SB – Downside: .274, 27HRs, 110RBI, 20SB)

4. Carlos Lee – This is a guy that always puts in work. He was touted as the only sure thing .300-30HR-100RBI outfielder headed into 2008, and despite missing 40+ games Lee finished only 2HRs short of that mark. Amazing. He’s not the flashy stud athletic outfielder that people seem to hop on bandwagons to top picks, but he’s going to get his making him probably the safest pick in Fantasy Baseball. (Fantasy Upside: .320, 32HRs, 120RBI, 10SB – Downside: .285 30HRs, 100RBI, 6SB)

5. Ryan Braun – Braun, one of the most impressive young stars in the game, hasn’t gotten close to his full potential. While getting a40 more at bats in 2008 than he did in his rookie season of 2007, Braun just barely eclipsed his rookie of the year totals in HRs and RBI – going from 34 and 97 to 37 and 106. I have reason to believe that his 3rd season in the big show will be his most impressive. The more comfortable he gets the better his numbers will project. If he can shrink his strikeout numbers he’ll really be something special. (Fantasy Upside: .325, 42HRs, 120RBI, 15SB – Downside: .285, 35HR, 105RBI, 14SB)

6. Manny Ramirez – Manny is arguably the most talented hitter in baseball. His numbers after Boston, and especially those in the playoffs – were amazing. In 53 games with the Dodgers, Manny hit .396 and mashed 17HRs while batting in 53… Those are freakish numbers. This is also a guy that can hit anything, drove in 100 plus RBI in 12 of his last 14 seasons, and spends lots of time working on his craft. But there’s contract stuff, there’s Manny being Manny, and that makes him the closest thing to Terrell Owens that fantasy baseball has. All that being said, I’d love this guy on my team, and chances are he’ll mash pitches throughout 2009. He’s also the closest thing to Barry Bonds that today’s baseball has. He could also not sign a contract and disappear to Planet Man-Ram – or sign a contract that he’s not happy with and play with poo-face all season long. Lots of questions move him farther down that his numbers suggest. (Fantasy Upside: .340, 45HRs, 140RBI, 3SB- Downside .296, 35HRs, 110RBI, 0SB)

Tier 2

7. Matt Holliday – I don’t know what to expect from Holliday. The guy has a sweet right handed swing, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him do just fine in Oakland. However, baseball is a numbers game, and you have to acknowledge the fact that he played in Colorado his entire career and didn’t hit nearly as well on the road. He’s now in Oakland where offensive fantasy players go to die. Since 2006 when Matt became one of the most consistent young hitters in the league, and 2007 when he turned in his second straight .326+, 34HR+, 114RBI+ season – he took a step backwards last season. He still hit .320, he struck out less and walked more, and he stole twice as many bases as any other season (28 compared to 14 back in 2005) but he hit only 25HRs with 88RBI – I expect his Oakland numbers to be more similar to that than his ’06-’07 stats. But his body of work over those previous seasons is impressive and he can be drafted that way. (Fantasy Upside: .340, 36HRs, 130RBI, 28SB – Downside: .320, 25HRs, 90RBI, 10SB)

8. Nick Markakis – Stud. He is protecting a poor lineup, but this kid is a 180 peice tool box. He’s just 25 years old, and his power numbers should improve. His power was down a bit in 2008, but his walks were way up, his average was a little better, and he hit more doubles in less at bats. He only had 10 SB, which might get people off the idea that he’s going to be a 30-20 guy, but he doesn’t hurt you anywhere and helps in all areas. If his lineup improves, he’ll get even better. (Fantasy Upside: .315, 28HRs, 115 RBIs, 18SB – Downside: .300, 20HRs, 87RBI, 10SB)

9. Carlos Quentin – He has one hell of a 3/4 season last year – no doubt about that. Had he continued instead of sustaining an injury he was probably in line to become the AL MVP. Still that was just one season. In 480 at bats Carlos mashed 36HRs with 100RBi and a .288 average. He’s only 26, but neither of his previous major league stints projected him anywhere close to those numbers – so, you’re definitely taking a chance on a guy that could mash once again or go back to his 20HR upside… I tend to think he’ll continue to hit nice power numbers, but projected totals of 44+ seem a little high. (Fantasy Upside: .288, 44HRs, 125RBIs, 9SB – Downside: .250, 18HRs, 70RBI, 3SB)

10. Nate McLouth – What a year for this Pirate. Nate started off as hot as anyone, and despite a mid-season post all-star break slump, he managed a .276 average with 26HRs and 94RBIs. Better yet, he seemed to get better after struggling mid-season. When teams started understanding that he had more than expected, they pitched him different, not giving him as many pitches to hit. McLouth struggled with that for a while, but started taking what people gave him toward the end of the season, giving me hope for a repeat performance in 2009. But only time will tell. He’s a risky early pick, but could have some nice value in drafts. (Fantasy Upside: .285, 28HRs, 100RBI, 25SB – Downside: .266, 19HRs, 78RBI, 20SB)

11. Jason Bay – Jason will be undervalued. He’s perfect for Boston’s Green Monster and was a very consistent force for the Red Sox. He struggled for a year and a half in Pittsburgh, but injuries had something to do with that, and he looks like the Jason Bay that was a first round pick as a Pirate slugger headed into 2007 before he hit .247 in his worst season as a major leaguer. But he fought back last season and managed 31HRs, and a .286 batting average in 155 games between Boston and Pittsburgh. All his numbers improved while in Boston, except maybe HRs which basically stayed the same. But he is part of quite a lineup for the Sox, and I expect another nice year from Jason. (Fantasy Upside: .299, 35HRs, 120RBI, 11SB – Downside: .280, 29HRs, 100RBI, 7SB)

12. Alfonso Soriano – Soriano is a frustrating guy to own, he’s streakier than a lazy 3rd graders undies and has the upside of any young slugger in the league. I’d say that he’s best to own late, because that’s when he usually has more upside that dirty undies, but you never know with this guy. Still, he might be found at great value. He’s 1st round material that might last until round 4, and at that point even I might give him a shot. If you want to roll the dice, and I’ve been known to go straight for Yhatzees – then Soriano is your kind of guy. In just 109 games in 2008 he managed 29 bombs and 75RBI – those are good stats for a season. Still, Fons is not young anymore (33) and is probably not the guy flurting with 40-40 (or even 30-30) that he was earlier in his career. Still, his 109 game stats show what he can do if he stays healthy. Ifs and buts. Will you take that chance? (Fantasy Upside: .299, 40HRs, 104RBI, 30SB – Downside: .277, 33HRs, 75RBI, 20SB)

Tier 3

13. Raul Ibanez – Raul Ibanez could be dynamite in Philadelphia. That park launches home runs, and he’ll be protected with some big bats in that lineup. If he did what he did in Seattle last season, I’m willing to bet he’s got a chance to really impress in Philly. His upside and downside are both good. (Fantasy Upside: .295, 33HRs, 123RBI, 4SB – Downside: .285, 20HRs, 95RBI, 1SB)

14. Vladamir Guerrero – Vlad may have had a down year last season, but that down mark still consisted of a top 15 mark in fantasy points per at bat. It may be ridiculous to think this, because he’s been declining, but I expect a better season from Vlad in ’09- and for the first time he won’t be overvalued by a couple rounds. (Fantasy Upside: .329, 33HRs, 129RBI, 10SB – Downside: .303, 27HRs, 91RBI, 2SB)

15. Carl Crawford – I almost promise that Carl Crawford will be undervalued, which will be quite different from the last couple seasons – but if you watched the playoffs last season, sporting a healthy Carl Crawford, then you understand why I put him here. His upside is higher than anyone on this list – sans maybe his outfield mate.

16. B.J. Upton – Upton is a stud. He mashed in the playoffs, having one of the best post-seasons in some time. B.J. had an injury that cut into his 2008 power, but I think his career numbers will be closer to those in 2007 than ’08. I like his upside risk. (Fantasy Upside: Not yet reached, but… .300, 32HRs, 95RBI, 40SB – Downside: .273, 15 HRs, 75 RBI, 29 SB)

17. Johnny Damon – Johnny Damon is almost guaranteed to be undervalued headed into ’09. Right now ESPN has him ranked 20th – but he’s got a chance to be magic. That lineup and team is chalked full of talent, and Tex is likely to bat about 50 points higher than Giambi did last season, that’s going to be about 20 more runs for Damon right there. (Fantasy Upside: .316, 20HRs, 94 RBI, 31 SB – Downside: .275, 12HRs, 65 RBI, 18 SB)

18. Curtis Granderson – The Tiger power train that was supposed to arrive in ’08 will likely show up in ’09. A full season of health should keep Granderson in the Top 20. (Fantasy Upside: .302, 23HRs, 74 RBI, 26 SB – Downside: .270, 19HRs, 66 RBI, 10 SB)

19. Vernon Wells – Vernon Wells is an interesting case. The guy only had 427 at bats in ’08 (injury) and he still rocked 20 bombs with 78 RBI. In 2007 he had 16 HRs and 80 RBI in 584 at bats. ’08 suggests that you should expect more of Vernon’s 2006, 2003, and 2002 numbers – that would make him a great pick as the 19th OF taken – however, there’s always those other years…. (Fantasy Upside: .317, 33HRs, 117 RBI, 17 SB – Downside: .275, 16HRs, 72 RBI, 4 SB)

Tier 5

20. Alex Rios – The upside vs. normal production pick. Everyone sees it in Alex, will he get it? (Fantasy Upside: Not yet reached but… .305, 30HRs, 100RBI, 32 SB – Downside: .291, 15HRs, 79RBI, 15SB)

21. Magglio Ordonez – Always a chance to absolutely mash. (Fantasy Upside: .360, 35HRs, 139 RBI, 6 SB – Downside: .298, 21HRs, 103RBI, 1SB – or hurt I guess, but just twice in the last 11 seasons)

22. Ichiro Suzuki – Never less than 100 runs as a MLB player.  (Fantasy Upside: .372, 13HRs, 68 RBI, 45 SB – Downside: .310, 6 HRs, 42 RBI, 33 SB)

23. Jay Bruce – In just over 400 at bats, Bruce mashed 21 HRs with 52 RBI in 2008. Will he exceed all previous numbers in a full 2009? Yeah, I think so. (Fantasy Upside: .280, 33HRs, 85RBI, 10SB – Downside: .255, 25HRs, 65RBI, 5SB)

24. Corey Hart – Hart may look like a caveman, and a very close relative to those Geico clowns, but he can do it all on the baseball field. As a 6’6″ monster Hart is a base stealer, a triple hitter, a HR guy, and has managed at least 80RBI in each of his first full seasons. He didn’t hit as well last season, but every guy has a down year, and Hart’s tools are obvious. If he can up his walks and down his Ks, by taking some time to recognize a pitch, he’s in. (Fantasy Upside: .295, 29HRs, 100RBI, 23SB – Downside: .270, 22HRs, 88RBI, 19SB)

25. Andre Eithier – This kid has one of the prettiest swings in baseball, and that has a little to do with me expecting bigger things from him. There’s not much wasted action in his bat, and he hangs in the zone like Doug and freaking Mark (Local radio show drop). If Manny comes back he’ll be even better, but even without Ram, Andre’s .305 BA, 20HRs, and 77RBI are all bench marks for the season and I expect them to be exceeded. He’s just 26 and coming in on his prime. (Fantasy Upside: .315, 27HRs, 105RBI, 6SB – Downside: .300, 20HRs, 80RBI, 2SB)

26. Ryan Ludwick – Ludwick was out of his norm last year, no doubt about that, but then again, playing consistently in the MFL is out of Ryan’s norm for his career. It was his first MLB season with more than 303 at bats. IN 2007, with just 303 at bats it’s not like he was powerless, he hit 14HRs and 52RBI with a .267 average. He’s just 30 and he has some quality hitters to bat in. He may be a one year wonder, you can never really know, but his consistency throughout last season predicts a solid ’09 campaign. (Fantasy Upside: .299, 37HRs, 115RBI, 6SB – Downside .265, 24HRs, 88RBI, 4SB)

Tier 6

20. Nelson Cruz – Love this kid.

21. Matt Kemp – Great upside, lots of strikeouts.

22. Adam Dunn – Low average, high strikeouts, monster power.

23. Justin Upton – Amazing talent.

24. Chris Young – See above.

25. Shane Victorino – Consistent player will score lots in Philly.

25. Xavier Nady – If he stays in New York and plays daily, he’ll be a freaking steal.

26. Cameron Maybin – Will be overhyped a bit, doubt he’ll bat .500 in 2009.

27. Jacoby Ellsbury – Also a bit overhyped, struggled in the 2nd half, but great tools in a good lineup.

28. Jeff Francoeur – I’m thinking Jeff is still the guy we thought he was.

29. Pat Burrell – Power is there, but for how much longer?

30. Denard Span – This kid was great in ’08.