Tag Archives: Fantasy Football Analysis

Fantasy Focus: Week 7 Fantasy Football Analysis

Posted on by

And just like that I’m back on top. Four out of the first 6 weeks, I’ve been the fantasy winner in the weekly rank’em section – soon I’ll be answering fantasy questions for readers, and Papa Weimer (2-1 ATS last week with three underdog picks) will be the guy picking games. Until that switch is made, I’ll just keep dominating this section of fun and games. We always say, anything worth playing is worth beating your friends at. Another week of fantasy football in the books, and don’t look now, but the regular season is just about half over – it will be after this week. So if you’re down an out, you might want to try some blind lawn darts while selecting your starters this week, or you could just listen to me – lawn darts are fun, especially the pointy ones that can cause serious injury. What’s the fun in dull lawn darts anyway? Here’s this week’s fantasy blitz!

no banners

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Peyton Manning – Two weeks to prepare… For the Rams? Hahahaha…
2. Drew Brees – Miami does their best to slow down the game and stop the run, Drew wants to ruin it for them.
3. DeAngelo Williams – The Bills upset the Jets last week, but it wasn’t because they stopped the run.
4. Ben Roethlisberger – There’s holes in that secondary, you know it won’t be for lack of attempts if he fails…
5. Roddy White – Dallas can’t stop #1 receivers, I think Roddy has a big day for the home team.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eli Manning – Arizona made it tough on Matt Hasselbeck last week, doubt that happens two times in a row.
2. Steve Smith – Steve hasn’t been awesome the last couple weeks, but he’ll be great the rest of the year!
3. Marshawn Lynch – Trent Edwards out, Lynch becomes a 25-30 touch guy.
4. Joseph Addai– Been catching a lot of balls, healthy, plays St. Louis this week – yes please!
5. Ryan Grant – The Packers seem to hate running the ball, but one of these days Grant will break out, Cleveland?

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Laurence Maroney – Picking a Patriots runner is suicidal, but Maroney is the only healthy guy against Tampa.
2. Cadillac Williams – The Pats score so fast, Caddy should get lots of series to break a few big runs.
3. Chris Henry – The Bengals speedster is finally getting healthy, could really hurt a Bears team hurt by speed.
4. Jeremy Maclin – The Eagles are going to throw, McNabb likes the Missouri speedster.
5. Sydney Rice – Becoming one of Brett’s favorites, and Percy might be less than 100%. Pitt allows big plays, too.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Matt Forte – Didn’t think I’d put him here against Cinci, but until he shows me something, he’s here.
2. Antonio Bryant – AB hasn’t been a favorite of Josh Johnson, and he draws a tough secondary to throw on.
3. Donnie Avery – Has a couple TDs in back to back weeks, but Indy is very tough on young receivers.
4. Mark Sanchez – The Raiders D is solid, and you know dumbing down the offense has never really helped anyone.
5. Chad Henne – Lots of excitement for Chad’s last outing, I’d like to see him do well, but unlikely against Saints.

***Big Bye Week in Week’s 7 and 8: this week don’t play Ravens, Broncos, Lions, Jaguars, Seahawks, or Titans! Mind the Gap!!!

no banners

Week 7 Fantasy Pre-Rankings

[TABLE=21]
[TABLE=22]
[TABLE=23]

no banners


[TABLE=24]
[TABLE=25]

Hard flat toed cleats, equally hard toe kicks – oh the good old days!

Fantasy Focus: Week 6 Fantasy Football Analysis

Posted on by

The old man made it two weeks in a row, but at least it stayed in family again. Despite Red Red and Josh’s fantasy genius, neither has found a top spot in any one week this year. But I’m not settling for 2nd, getting the top spot three straight weeks to start the season felt a lot nicer than two straight 2nd place finishes. I’m out for the glory in Week 6. There are some more gross games that you’d like to stay away from this week (Rams/Redskins for one) and some great ones that fantasy should shine in. Here are the predictions for Week 6’s Fantasy Football action. Let the ghost of Drew Bledsoe in Patriot-ic red, white, and blue and his chubby 7th grader-like athleticism shine through with rapture, lead me back to the promise land you dopey Cougar!!!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. DeAngelo Williams – It’s a shot in the dark, maybe, and Williams hasn’t been great this year, but Tampa calls…
2. Randy Moss – Tennessee Titans. Remember the Titans? Remember how they had a great secondary last year. Forget that.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – He struggled last week, but in comes St. Louis to quell all problems.
4. Tom Brady – I’m starting to like anyone against the Titans secondary, but Tom has a special place in my heart.
5. Brandon Marshall – The big talented kid has seemingly figured it out, and that means bad things for San Diego.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Matt Hasselbeck – Arizona really doesn’t let you run it, but they sure allow you to pass it. Matty can do that.
2. T.J. Housmandzadeh – If you like Matt this week, and I do, you have to like T.J.
3. Cedric Benson – This cat is running down hill. He put up a big number on Baltimore, Houston should fall like dominoes.
4. Brett Favre – A lot of people will be confused and sit Brett against Baltimore, should be one of this better throwing games.
5. Wes Welker – I think Welker has 10 or more catches for at least 100 yards this week. That’s 20 points and a great day.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Nate Burleson – There was no reason for him to go undrafted in most leagues, he’s a weekly starter, this week should be great.
2. Donnie Avery – The kid is finally getting healthy and he can fly, Jacksonville struggles to stop even kiwi bird air attacks.
3. Rashard Mendenhall – I’ll ride this super sophomore until he lets me down, especially against the league’s worst run D.
4. Kyle Orton – The Chargers let opponents have their way, and Josh McDaniels likes to throw the rock. Good for Orton owners.
5. Eddie Royal – I love me some Eddie Royal this week against San Diego, especially since he saw 15 targets last week.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Fred Jackson – It’s going to be tough for me to play Fred much, Lynch gets more carries and more receptions.
2. Vincent Jackson – An impossible guy to sit on most teams, but if you have other solid options, I think he struggles.
3. Julius Jones – Hopefully you listened to Red Red Ryan and traded him when he had value, AZ won’t allow much.
4. Santonio Holmes – Because why would the Steelers pass more than 20 times when they could run to victory easily?
5. Steve Slaton – In a non-ppr league, I think you sit Slaton. If it’s PPR, don’t expect a great day, but could be playable.

PS – Don’t play Dolphins, 49ers, Colts, and Cowboys in Week 6! Byes! Mind the gap!

Week 6 Fantasy Pre-Rankings

[TABLE=10]
[TABLE=11]
[TABLE=12]
[TABLE=13]
[TABLE=14]

Michael Koenen has a special place in the hearts of everyone at LuckyLester.com – until he’s kicking field goals again, we’re not ranking the position ever… Get a 60 yarder Mikey!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 6 Fantasy Football Advice

Posted on by

It’s been a pretty busy week for me in fantasy football with answering questions for week 6. No doubt the listing of my email address last week (papaweimer50@hotmail.com) was just the trick I needed to be in here hunting and pecking for the right words to answer questions. I’ve listed some late questions and answers from last week’s stuff below, I also have some relevant questions for this weeks fantasy football action. If you have questions, ask them. If I get enough by later in the week, I’ll post my questions and answers again in Ask Papa Weimer Week 6, section b or 2 or something of the sort. Stop trying to confuse me. I’m witty folks, unflappable like Tiger and Larry Bird and Michael Jordan put into one chubby old white dude. I call it how I see it!

Last Week’s Late Questions:

Michael from Denmark wrote in, “I play in a points league, that also awards receptions. I’m pretty well set in most positions, but have big doubts as to who I should start in the flex position. My options are Tashard Choice, Rickie Williams and Roddy White. I like Choice’s matchup against the Chiefs, but with Barber recovering, I fear a dip in his workload. Rickie Williams is playing well, and with Pennington out, he could see enough of the ball to produce good numbers, but I don’t particularly like the Jets matchup. Roddy has been rusty, but as my top draft pick at WR, I feel that I shouldn’t abandon him completely, and I’m confident he will start to produce at some point, I’m just not sure it will be against a strong 49’ers D.”

Michael, thanks for the email. I am pretty sure I would roll with Tashard Choice. He plays against the worst rushing defense in the league, or at least one of them, and while Barber is expected to play, he’s not going to be fully healthy and the Cowboys didn’t want to make him carry the ball every time even when he was fully healthy. Choice is a very good runner that explodes through the line, and he has a very good chance to get a lot of carries for the Cowboys, especially if they get up early against the Chiefs. I wouldn’t start Ricky just because he’s going against the Jets. New York is great against the run, and they certainly won’t be too worried about Chad Henne beating them all day. Roddy is a great player, but until I’m convinced they are going to try and get him the ball, I’m going to stay away from him against great defenses. He’s a beast, always a threat to make a big play, but Nate Clements is one of the best defensive backs in the league, and thus I expect him to give Roddy a tough time all day long. In a better match-up, I would definitely give Roddy a shot. All’s not lost with him, but hopefully the Falcons will start taking chances with their best receiver… I think the match-up insists that Dallas could be up early and up big, and if that’s the case, why would they waste Marion and risk getting him hurt just for mop up duty in the 2nd half? That will be choice’s job, a job he’ll do very well, and he rates out highly as a flex option for me this week. (now of course Roddy White blows up, and Ricky did work too, luckily for me Teshard was plenty for Michael to win his league, even though he started Sims-Walker: he was luckier than me in that regard!)

BSimmons wrote in, “I have a question on which WR to start. Donald Driver is out for me this week and I have Nate Burleson, Donnie Avery and Braylon Edwards with his new team.. Who should I start?? Thanks in advance!”

I think your starter is Nate Burleson, and by a long shot. I’d either wait for Edwards to prove himself in New York, or sell him to someone who loves him in New York. It’s hard to join a team in Week 5 and be a plus player the rest of the year. Chris Chambers wasn’t very good for San Diego a few years back, and Roy Williams did nothing in Dallas last season. I don’t know of a situation where a mid season trade at receiver went well for that receiver’s fantasy stats. Avery is a nice talent, but he’s still battling a hamstring injury, and his QB situation is brutal at best. I’d leave him on your bench until he proves that he’s completely healthy. Nate has a great match-up against a porous secondary, and he gets nearly 10 targets a game or something like that. I like him as a start this week. Hope that helps! (all of these guys had nice weeks, but I found the top gun of the three, as Nasty Nate finished with 10 more points than either Donnie or Braylon – that being said, Braylon really impressed me for the Jets, he could be a solid play the rest of the season. I wonder if he eats into Jericho’s numbers?)

Stuck in a Trailer writes, “I’m stuck in a trailer in Colorado. I figured my best bet was to ask you my fantasy question this week.  Do I really sit Steve Smith (NYG),  my other receivers are Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Mike Sims-walker.  A lot of people seem to think these guys are the better choice this week.  What’s your thought? Thanks!”

Has the snow begun or what? Jammed up in a trailer, I can see sitting Steve Smith. Anquan Boldin has a great match-up against the Houston Texans secondary, Larry Fitz should get lots of attention, and you know Kurt and company will be throwing the ball. Calvin Johnson plays against a Steelers secondary that has been brutal against the pass this season. And Mike Sims-Walker goes against the Seahawks, minus their only stud corner (Trufant) and in a huge rut the last three weeks. Steve has a tough match-up with Nnamdi but you’re right, it’d be tough for me to sit him after all he’s done. I’m not sure he’s the type of receiver that Oakland will try to take away with their top corner, but there’s a chance. If I were going to sit one guy and play Smith, I would sit Calvin Johnson, if only because if I was Pittsburgh I would just try to blitz the snot out of Culpepper with double coverage on Calvin. So yes, I would probably end sitting Steve Smith, but it’s a coin flip with Calvin. Steve has the tougher match-up, and is playing against a bad Oakland team so Eli won’t be throwing as much. Hope this helps! (who knew Calvin would get hurt immediately and Mike Sims-Walker would not even get to play because he broke a curfew or something – sorry man, hope the Trailor is warming up! – At least I helped him out properly with this next one…

” Stuck in a Trailer tries me again, “Thanks for the Quick reply.  I just might sit Steve this week and hope it proves to be one of those decisions I can brag about.  Your input was helpful in my decision making so I thought I might get your take on one more conundrum.  DeAngelo Williams, Clinton Portis or Reshard Mendenhall. Can only pick two and so far I think I have switched them around about nine times. No snow as of yet, but between awaiting your responses I’m stocking the wood shed.”

This Week’s Early Questions:

David in Minnesota sent a fearsome foursome of questions my way, “Maclin or Manningham who will be better in the long run? Chester Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Derrick Ward, or Fred Jackson which of these would you keep and why? What about giving up Manningham for Sims-Walker, would you make that deal? How would you rank the following and why: Royal,Collie, Nicks Hakeem, and Crabtree.I am looking for a bye week replacement and a potential WR to take over for TO if he and Edwards don’t get their act together. Thanks for all your help!”

Anytime David – Here are your answers in order of the questions… Career-wise, Maclin, he’s a special dynamic – and this season, it’s a tough one. It depends on what you’re going for. Owning an eagle receiver is a scary gig. How many games will DeSean Jackson have 1 catch for 0 yards? I think Manningham is going to be good for 4-5 catches a week, a touchdown 6 or 7 times, and a decent flex or back-up receiver start. I think Maclin could have a couple no-shows, like Jackson this week, but that’s because the Eagles roll that way. It’s tough, surely, but I think Maclin has a better chance to have a huge week while Manningham has a better chance to be decent week in and week out. But, with the Eagles you really never know. If you want consistency, Manningham is probably your best bet. If you want a shot at big points, Maclin is your lottery ticket. Hope that helps David, that’s the best I can do.

Boy, tough call on those running backs; And it would depend on who your other running backs are. If you’re looking for a guy that might not do anything, but if his starter gets hurt he’ll be a Top 10 back, stick with Chester Taylor. Fred Jackson is another guy like that, but he should probably continue to get fantasy numbers, so keeping him around might be easier, but his upside isn’t as high as Chester’s. Derrick Ward has lost a lot of value with the emergence of Caddy and his health, and the demergence of the Bucs wanting to win this season. Jamal Lewis looks like he’ll get all the carries if he’s healthy, and that offensive line is tough, but I just don’t see the offense in Cleveland being worth while this year, that passing game is quite pukeish. Still, of all the guys you listed, I think Jamal is the surest thing for carries on a weekly basis. He has some tough match-ups, but if you’re looking for a guy to start week in and week out, Lewis might be your answer. Again, not a sure thing answer here, but hope that helps.

As for the WR switch, I would much rather have Sims-Walker….
And finally, I’d take Royal #1 because he is the best receiver you’ve listed, and he’s not a rookie. Hakeem Nicks and Collie are tied, in my mind, they will both be contending with other receivers all year long, and while Collie has been more productive, he’ll lose touches in two weeks when Gonzo returns from injury while Nicks might gain touches as he gets more comfortable with the NFL and Giants’ offense. I like Crabtree a lot, but he’s been out of football for quite some time, remember, he spent much of his off season getting healthy and staying off his foot. His talent is immense, no doubt, but it’s a long shot that he’s a top talent this season, so I’d rate him last out of that bunch, for this season.

Fantasy Football Analysis: Ten For Tuesday

Posted on by

“Brett Favre looked like the much better quarterback all night long, but in the end his fantasy points were very similar to Aaron Rodgers’ totals. Ridiculous.” That’s what a buddy posted on my fantasy league’s message board after Monday Night’s game. So what, the people out there that want to believe great fantasy numbers make you the best player is confused. This is fantasy football, where team wins matter little, and garbage time is tacked on just the same. Rodgers put up 380+ yards, more than a 100 more than Brett. He gave up a couple turnovers, but those high numbers kept the fantasy night close. You can’t score points based on how good you looked, it’s all about numbers in this one….    Rashard Mendenhall looked like the beast I thought he would be since he decided to leave Illinois. Now he runs a little high, and that could subject him to some big hits, but he hits the hole hard, runs with power, and often spins or bounces off that first tackle. If he continues to get touches, he’s a nice find for those owners that either picked him up or kept him during his early woes. When he came out, I thought Mendenhall would be the best back in his class. That was saying a lot considering he came out with guys like McFadden, Jon Stewart, Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Ray Rice, Steve Slaton, Tashard Choice and others. I’m not positive he’ll pan out as the best of that stellar bunch, but I still like his future….    Speaking of last year’s draft, it has been nothing short of amazing. The amount of gamebreaking players that are tearing up the league right now as sophomores is amazing, even in the fantasy realm. I count 20 guys that have been fantasy relevant this year, just in the first 4 rounds – that’s not normal…..  The 49ers dominated the St. Louis Rams on Sunday, proving once again that their “need” for Michael Crabtree isn’t as pressing as the former Texas Tech star expected. Stories have surfaced that Crabtree and his agent are ready to get back to the bargaining table. It’s about damn time. I’ve now dropped the kid in both the leagues I’ve owned him in, and I’m keeping him on the waiver wire, but if you’re looking for a chance to take, he’s a deep shot in the dark….     Eli Manning has been worth every single dollar the Giants paid him this off-season, and yes, that took a lot for me to say. He’s going to have to really bite the dust hard if he wants to have the “normal Eli year” and I don’t think it’s going to happen. But things like his little heel problem throw, are part of the reason why I’ll never like this guy. He dropped back, landed weird on his foot, lost his balance, regained it, only to try and throw and fall down in the process like someone shot him in the foot. And what happened? Dude’s heel is bruised. Please……    I predicted a huge year from Ronnie Brown, and so far he’s looking pretty good to me. The guy is a beast, his vision is perfect, his all around game is impressive, and his team will be relying heavily on him to win ball games. He’s averaging just over 90 yards per game and a touchdown per. But this might be the height of his fantasy stock for a while. The guy is legit, but he goes up against the Jets (twice), and the Saints, in the next three games. It gets easier after that, but I’m just saying, get ready for some tough sledding ahead….    The Raiders offense sucks! 6 points against the Texans, come on….   Now the Saints running attack had a pretty solid outing against one of the best run defenses in football this Sunday, Pierre Thomas is the real deal; but it’s that stellar defensive transformation that continues to amaze me. The Saints really know how to bring pressure, often fooling teams into mishaps that leave open rushers despite rushing fewer people than offensive blockers. If you can get pressure on 6 blockers with 4 and 5 rushers, often going unblocked, you’re going to win a lot of football games….     Now this is the David Garrard I know and love. His accuracy, mistake free football, and efficiency has been great over the last two games. His 5-1 TD to INT ratio is consistent with his ability, and I think he’ll continue to put up solid numbers all season long. He got Torry Holt in the off-season, and that was huge, but seeing Mike Sims-Walker become a go-to guy will do wonders for this whole team. It’s just nice to finally see Garrard not running for his life every snap, his O-line is getting better every week….    I’d like to congratulate Denver for their awesome start to the season. I warned a lot of people that the Broncos weren’t as bad as everyone thought, but not even I thought they’d be this solid. Defensively they have gotten very tough, and Kyle Orton might be starting to figure out the talent he has on the outside (though he still hasn’t discovered Eddie Royal). Knowshon Moreno is going to be a special player, and it’s beginning to look like this McDaniels guy knows what he’s doing afterall, huh? I’ve liked him from the start, and his 4-0 beginning, the way he went and gave Marshall a hug after that game winning catch and run, and his overall passion and respect for the game is encouraging. Not only is his future bright, but I expect it to be long as well.

theRUNDOWN: Week 16

Posted on by

What is theRUNDOWN? I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play unless I had nobody else, we call these splinter butts because of their need to be benched – This is theRUNDOWN for Week 16.

QB: Jay Cutler vs. Buffalo: If the Broncos win this game they go to the playoffs. If they lose this one, and the Chargers win, they play a loser out game in Week 17 against San Diego. Jay Cutler comes to play on Sunday, that’s my bet.

RB: Maurice Jones Drews vs. Indianapolis: There won’t be many that think Jacksonville has a chance, but I’ll be one. Why do they have a chance? Because this guy could touch the ball 30 times. If that happens, look out Indy.

RB: Matt Forte vs. Green Bay: I know he hurt his foot and had a terrible game last week, but this kid is very good, and he plays a Packers defense that isn’t. What else? This is must win time for the Bears.

FLEX: Thomas Jones vs. Seattle: If Eric Mangini knows what’s good for him, he’ll give the ball to TJ 25+ times. If he continues to be an idiot, this pick won’t look as good as the Adrian Peterson pick I almost made.

WR: Andre Johnson vs. Oakland: Because he’s the best around, that’s why.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Arizona: People forget that the Patriots are playing for their playoff lives too. Randy should be targeted in double digits against Arizona’s suspect secondary.

TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. Miami: Part of me wants to take John Carlson here, but Tony is just so good. I’ll stick with the old savvy veteran.

K: Josh Brown vs. San Francisco: I wanted to take Nedney, but I think St. Louis will have drives stopped short of the end-zone. San Francisco might just have 4-5 touchdowns.

D: Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee: I think the Steelers shut down the Titans, and make Kerry Collins throw. That means interceptions. That means sacks.

PAPA’S Week 15 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: Miami doesn’t scare me away from Thigpen, a couple super fantasy bowls will rest in his hands.

Dan Orlovsky: He has a big game and the Lions win – I like both to happen on Sunday.

Shaun Hill: I don’t know why the 49ers would pass, but they probably will, and Hill always seems to manage some points. All three of these guys are solid starts.

Pierre Thomas: You should own this guy. He’s about to be New Orleans’ horse in a Detroit game. He might be a Top 5 start this week. So he probably doesn’t belong here, but I’m doing it for the grades!

Kevin Smith: This guy is the #1 most important guy for Lion hopes. I think he comes through with a big game this week against New Orleans.

Leon Washington: I don’t think Seattle has the linebacking speed to stay with Leon, I don’t know if anyone does, but they definitely don’t. I think the Jets will game plan for that bit. If you need a deep flex, you might give him a shot.

Kevin Walter: If the best corner in the league stays with Andre Johnson all day, that means big things for Mr. Walter.

Devin Hester: I have a lot of the same guys as last week, but Hester looks real good, especially with the way Green Bay has been giving up a ton of passing yards recently. Hester looks good lately.

Tory Holt: The Niners are tougher against the run than you’d think – but they are not the best secondary, that’s for sure. I think Holt has a chance to have a nice week.

Jeremy Shockey: He’s been bad, hardly even startable, but I think he has a nice week in 16.

Miami Dolphins: If you need someone here, take a chance on the Dolphins, they could make some big plays against the Chiefs.

Papa’S Week 15 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Tony Romo: I wouldn’t play anyone from Dallas this week, and I think Tony has the best chance to score points. I’m guessing he has 200 yards 1 TD and 2 INTs. Not the worst ever, but you can find better.

LaDainian Tomlinson: I like Kevin Smith, Justin Fargas, McFadden, and Ronnie Brown (among others) better than LT this week. I have a feeling the Bucs have a run-stuffing week up their sleeves.

Maurice Morris: The Jets haven’t been as good against the run and Maurice Morris has been a solid play of late. Those two things will both play out differently this week in Seattle.

Santonio Holmes: I have a feeling that the Steelers will be running the ball more on Sunday. That won’t give Holmes many targets, and he looks like a 2 catches for 20 yards guy to me.

theRUNDOWN: Week 14

Posted on by

For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play unless I had nobody else – And Week 14 is upon us! 

QB: Matt Cassel vs. Seattle: I know, there are probably better options, but Seattle’s secondary hasn’t been able to slow down much lately, and I don’t think the Patriots will waste all that much time running. The Hawks have a solid run defense, but I’m pretty sure they’ve been the worst pass defense in the league lately. I’ll ride the Castle man. 

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Detroit: I guess I’m probably not the only one starting AP this week, but how can you not? It probably won’t happen, but what if you added LenDale’s numbers to Chris Johnson’s numbers from Thanksgiving’s game between the Lions and Titans? That’s what I’m hoping AP gets. 

RB: Matt Forte vs. Jacksonville: I started a rookie against Jacksonville last week, and I’ll do the same this week. Both are dynamic, and Forte is even more a center of his offense with even more carries near the goal line. Big game here. 

FLEX: LT vs. Oakland: Here’s why, because he’s LT and he’s playing the Raiders – that’s why. Fantasy owners have been disappointed by LT this year, but if they made the playoffs with him, he should really help them with a big payoff in Week 1 of most fantasy post seasons. 

WR: Roddy White vs. New Orleans: This kid is one of the better receivers you don’t hear a whole bunch about. He’s quietly putting together an amazingly productive and consistent fantasy season – that’s huge for receivers. 

WR: Brandon Marshall vs. Kansas City: Brandon Marshall has disappointed me too many times to do it again this week, hasn’t he? I’m telling you – there aren’t many more talented than this kid, now if he’d just stop dropping passes. 

TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. Denver: How good is this old man? I should be starting him just about every week. 

K: Ryan Longwell vs. Detroit: Versus Detroit is the key to this one. They give up so many yards, and then commit so many stupid mistakes – Longwell is bound to get a few kicking shots. Indoors, he’ll hit them all. 

D: Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland: Better yet, this is Tennessee versus Ken Dorsey. Awesome. 

PAPA’S Week 14 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: Against Denver? You bet. 

Daunte Culpepper: I actually think Daunte throws for more than 250 yards with 2 touchdowns or more. Is that crazy thinking? Am I old? Yes to all those things, but I’ll be right – that’s even scarier. 

JaMarcus Russell: If you are in this big of a bind, you have done well to get into Week 14 with something to win. Still, JaMarcus might light up a San Deigo defense that will be putting as many as they can in the box, and they aren’t great in the secondary anyway. It’s a short notice game, so this could be a nice night for the former #1 pick. Plus, you have to feel for him getting drafted by Oakland and all. 

Pierre Thomas: You bet. Atlanta’s defense is alright, but Pierre has been doing work. I’ll say it again, it’s popular on this site, Pierre is the best running back in New Orleans. 

Cedric Benson: Don’t look now but Benson has run with heart, and I think he keeps the starting gig for a while. That being said, he does play for the Bengals, but hey, I’ll try anyone once against the Colts. 

Domenick Hixon: I don’t care who they are playing, this guy is good for 70 yards, I hoped you trusted me and picked him up last week, because I’m sure he was tough to grab this time out. 

Devin Hester: I liked Hester last week, and I like him even a little bit more this week. Jaguars secondary is defunct and they just lost the best player in it. Does that mean good? That means Yhatzee! 

Zach Miller: He’s basically a sure thing start every week. This week he plays a poor defense on short notice – that’s more of a good for Zach. Some real sleepers I also like here are Shiancoe, Kevin Boss, and Ben Watson. 

Arizona Cardinals: Yeah, I’m trying a mediocre D against the Rams, so what, I’m right about this one this time. AZ should play inspired after diking around last week. 

Papa’S Week 14 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Marc Bulger: The match-up might say “YES!” but somebody needs to slap your match-up hunter right in the face on this one. If Bulger is still in by the end of the game, I will be stunned, and here it is, I will take a D grade for this sit pick even if he scores single digit points. I don’t see a long stay for Marc on the field this week. 

DeAngelo Williams: How great has this guy been? Exactly. But not this week, not in this game. The Panthers will lose at home because they won’t run well. 

MeWelde Moore/Willie Parker: The Steelers are smart, and therefore they won’t waste much time running the ball against the Cowboys D. Dallas has a nice run D, and while Pitt will have some good plays on the ground, it’s because they will be taking advantage of that Dallas secondary – more points through the air than on the ground this week. 

Kevin Walter: Not against those Corners in Green Bay. 

theRUNDOWN Review: Week 13

Posted on by

How’d it go? Well I ended up with….. 184 – not too shabby at all. Three Top 5 running backs – that’s how I roll. 

QB: Tony Romo vs. Seattle: 30 points for Tony, not a bad day. He ended up 3rd amongst quarterbacks behind Donovan McNabb and Aaron Rodgers. That’s the day I was looking for. 

RB: Chris Johnson vs. Detroit: Chris Johnson’s 126 yards and two scores was good enough for 8th overall, 4th amongst running backs, he tallied 26 fantasy points on Sunday. 

RB: Steve Slaton vs. Jacksonville: It took him a while to find the end-zone, but once he did, he managed to do it twice. Steve ran well all night, and the Texans pounded a lost Jaguar group on Monday Night Football. Steve busted out 21 carries for 130 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, he also grabbed two balls for 52 yards through the air. Yhatzee. That’s 32 fantasy points for my main man Steven. 

FLEX: Thomas Jones vs. Denver: Jones had 100+ yards and 2 scores in the first quarter and a half against the Broncos, but New York stopped running the ball after that. Why? Well because they wanted to lose obviously. And if failing, they succeeded. Yhatzee. Still, Jones finished behind just Westbrook and DeAngelo amongst running backs, finishing with 29 fantasy points. 

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Cleveland: Reggie had just 4 catches for 46 yards as Peyton was off-target. That duo killed me in more than a couple leagues this weekend. 8 points for Reggie. 

WR: Brandon Marshall vs. New York Jets: Marshall didn’t do much better than Reggie, grabbing 5 balls for 55 yards. Brandon dropped a couple passes, one of which would have been good for a touchdown. Nice. 10 points. 

TE: Antonio Gates vs. Atlanta: 3 catches for 27 yards – weak sauce. I wasn’t impressed with the Chargers as their season was on the line and they chocked on a fishy cracker. 5 points. 

K: Rod Bironas vs. Detroit: What do you know? I called it. The guy kicked 4 field goals, all 40-49 yarders and he busted in 5 extra points to boot. That is good for 21 fantasy points and my biggest kicker day ever, not to mention the #1 kicker overall in Week 13. My kicker curse has been kicked! 

D: Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati: 23 fantasy points in my league, quite the day from the Ravens. 

PAPA’S Week 12 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: Just 162 yards and no touchdown for Tyler, but his 48 rushing yards added to his point total and he got 9 against the Raiders – still not enough for me. D+

Kyle Orton: 153 yards and 2 touchdowns, but -6 points from 3 interceptions didn’t help his cause. Still, 12 points for Kyle. C-

Warrick Dunn: Just 74 rushing yards for Warrick, not a great day by any means. No TDs and no catches. C-

Ronnie Brown: 48 rushing yards and a touchdown – that has been about what Ronnie does, I expected more from him against the Rams. C-

Kevin Walter: 2 grabs for 38 yards, yeah, sorry about that, I didn’t think the Jaguars defense would roll over for the rushing game quite like that. D-

Domenick Hixon: 5 catches for 71 yards, and if you picked him up and started him then you get a nice starting option from here on out because Plaxico shot himself. Nice. B+

Devin Hester: 3 grabs for 67 yards and a touchdown. Just like I hoped, Devin found the end zone. A-

Zach Miller: 5 grabs for 79 yards, that’s a nice day from a waiver wire tight end. A-

Miami Dolphins: 10 points from Miami, they didn’t play as well as I thought they would against one of the league’s worst. Weird. 

Papa’S Week 13 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Kerry Collins: 4 fantasy points from Kerry – so much for that dreamy Detroit Lions secondary match-up eh? You’re welcome. 

Timothy Hightower: 7 rushing yards, his 3 grabs for 34 yards gave him 6 points in a PPR league, still, you’re welcome if you’ve listened to me about this guy and the Cards rushing attack. 

Clinton Portis: 11 carries, 22 yards, 1 catch for 15 yards – your welcome to those who listened. 

Lee Evans: 7 catches for 80 yards is a nice day from Lee, not great, but good enough to make me wrong about his benching in Week 13. 

theRUNDOWN: Week 12

Posted on by

For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play for hopes of a better options – here goes Week 12’s action… Two big weeks in a row has me aiming for 200 – as impossible as that seems.

QB: Peyton Manning vs. San Diego: There’s a chance that Manning just hands the ball off to Joseph Addai a lot, and doesn’t get the full fantasy point production I’m hoping for. However, he is going up against a great secondary to throw on (hell, Big Ben and the Steelers went over 300 in snow last week), and knowing Peyton, he’ll take full advantage of the air attack.

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Jacksonville: This years’ Jaguars don’t strike me as a team with a chance to stop AP. I think the Vikings jump on Peterson’s back and hope to God that doesn’t injure his knees. I’ll strap my hopes to AP as well.

RB: Matt Forte vs. St.Louis: Not only is Matt a nice play against just about every defense the league has to offer, but the Rams are one of the worst run defenses in the last 10 years. He should continue his run for rookie of the year.

FLEX: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Indianapolis: This hasn’t been a good year for LT, but he looked pretty darn good against the Steelers on Sunday, and that can only mean good things for his chances for a big day against the Colts.

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. San Diego: And I continue to put my eggs in the Colts passing basket this week. Lets hope I don’t have to catch it out of the fan like Cutler and Marshall, Rodgers and Jennings – you get me?

WR: Andre Johnson vs. Cleveland: Andre hasn’t beasted anybody lately, that can only mean it’s coming. Unfortunately for the Browns, they draw AJ in Week 12.

TE: Kellen Winslow vs. Houston: This guy is the best receiver in Cleveland – that’s right Braylon Edwards, KWII is the best receiver on your team. He’ll have a good day against the Texans.

K: Robbie Gould vs. St. Louis: Seems like a no-brainer. The Bears don’t have a dominant touchdown scoring team but any team with half an attack can get in field goal range in St. Louis. The game is indoors so there’s no weather problems. Go for the gold Gould… Ha, Gold-Gould – awesome.

D: Chicago Bears vs. St. Louis: No need to explain this one, just go for it and celebrate!

PAPA’S Week 12 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: At home against Buffalo? You bet! Until you guys start picking up my man Tyler – he’s going to be a sleeper and he’s going to be a starter for me.

Kyle Orton: He struggled last week, and the Bears are bound to run more than pass – but I think Kyle does enough good this week to get him into the Top 10 – he’s available in leagues, kind of weird.

Warrick Dunn: WD40 will get the most carries against a terrible Lions defensive front. That’s worth a start.

Pierre Thomas: Against Green Bay? Sure, the Packers were better against the run last week, but they’ll have to show me one more time or I’ll keep starting sleepers against that d-front. Thomas is still the best pure running back in New Orleans – lets hope their head coach realizes that.

Antonio Bryant: PPR guy against the Lions – the Bucs shouldn’t have to throw that much, but Bryant isn’t a bad option in a pinch.

Mark Bradley: I still like this kid despite a mediocre week against the Saints – he’s fast and can get up and get it. Thigpen is legit and likes to throw Mark’s way.

James Jones: An absolute stab in the dark, i know, but I like the match-up and I’ve always liked Jones – his best game of the season coming right up.

Zach Miller: A Raider? I must be sick. But I don’t think there’s a better pass catcher in Oakland against Denver’s safeties. He’s a nice sleeper.

Denver Broncos: One of the worst defenses in all of football – so they are the ultimate sleeper. If you’re a “pick a new D every week” guy – this option is right up your alley.

Papa’S Week 12 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Trent Edwards: He may be going up against the Chiefs, but I don’t like him this week – the Chiefs are better than advertised and Edwards regardless of him Monday Night tilt, I don’t want to start him in Week 12.

Timothy Hightower: If you didn’t at first, you are now starting to understand why I was so hesitant to anoint Tim as the next great rookie back after his solid game against the Rams. He hasn’t done much the last couple weeks, and this week against the Giants will be no different.

Maurice Jones Drew: There is no doubt, this kid is a stud and a touchdown machine – but the Jaguars hate giving him the ball, and against the Vikings I don’t think his 12 touches will be enough to make him fantasy worthy.

Santonio Holmes: I didn’t think he’d blow up this season, and I haven’t been that impressed – the Steelers will run 2-1 on Thursday, and that won’t leave many opportunities for Santonio.

theRUNDOWN: Week 11

Posted on by

For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Last week was one of my better RUNDOWN’s despite Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings pooping their respective bunk beds. This is my RUNDOWN for Week 11…

QB: Jay Cutler vs. Atlanta: I’m hoping to be wrong about this one, because I play against Cutler in some pretty big leagues this week – but the kid should have a nice game against a Falcons team that has been playing better in the secondary – it’s time to come back to reality folks.

RB: Matt Forte vs. Green Bay: Forte is the Bears offense, the Packers can’t stop the run, Matt catches passes with ease – nice play here.

RB: Frank Gore vs. St.Louis: Not only do I like Frank and his matchup – but how do you think the kid feels after falling down and costing his team a win last week? I’d like to think that he has a huge game against the Rams here.

FLEX: DeAngelo Williams vs. Detroit: I like some touchdowns against the Lions defense – weird.

WR: Anquan Boldin vs. Seattle: Because nobody can stop this guy. He’s a touchdown machine.

WR: Roddy White vs. Denver: I like Roddy a ton, and so does Matt Ryan – that means good things for both of us against the Broncos “secondary” – brutal.

TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. New Orleans: He may be old, but he’s damn good, and he’s getting targeted by Thigpen more than any other player on KC’s roster.

K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. Buffalo: I’d go for Gostkowski, but I’m late – he already had a huge game. So I’ll take Jason Elam to put up a couple field goals and about 4-5 extra points. Let the field goals be long ones Jason!!!

D: Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit: Two weeks in a row? Hey, blame the schedulers – Oakland and Detroit back to back is like Halloween and Christmas clumped into one. That’s right, girls dressed in hot little outfits and presents.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: Amazingly, you can still get him and he’s probably your best starting option this week. I know he’s starting for me. Does that mean bad things? Hmmm….

Matt Ryan: Is he a sleeper still? He’s a nice play against Denver.

Ricky Williams: They want to get him the ball more, he looks solid, he plays Oakland. There you have it. There’s a chance you can pick him up to fill in for Steven Jackson. Do it.

Jerious Norwood: I’d rather start Norwood in a PPR league than a big clump of starters this week – so he’s a nice sleeper option.

Brandon Jones: He’s been consistent over the last few weeks, and Jacksonville’s defense is lost – he’s a decent option.

Mark Bradley: He might still be available – don’t hesitate.

Deion Branch: He’s risky, no doubt, but pick him up at least. He’s back, and so is my bald brother Matt – so don’t mess around.

Billy Miller: I’ll go with Billy until Jeremy Shockey pulls his head out. Got me?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Should stop the run enough to make Gus throw – that means picks.

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

David Garrard: I don’t think much of David against the TItans – Jacksonville will try to run all day. That won’t work either, but goodness, I don’t see Jacksonville scoring more than once.

Willis McGahee: No thank you. I don’t think Willis has played well in two straight games this whole season. The Giants will hammer out the Ravens run I reckon.

Brandon Jacobs: He looked pretty banged up last week and this week is pure death, Baltimore. I would stay away from Jacobs if you have another option.

TJ Houshmanzadeh: If you can still get good stuff for him, trade him, this week is a start of a terrible schedule the rest of the way.