Tennessee Titans vs Seattle Seahawks 03/01/2010 Prediction

Oh how the Hawks have fallen. Sheesh, I think Jim Mora should get an extension based on the damage he’s done. If he could turn these Hawks into the mush pile of confidence lacking maroons that they are playing like right now, well he can surely turn wine back into water, right? I mean, the guy has thrown multiple people under buses, has gotten very little out of a couple of the most talented guys in the league, and hasn’t changed the risk free offense that has been here for years. So, basically they aren’t consistent at all and they still don’t take any big chances – awesome. The best of no worlds.

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But that’s not what’s important here, a little speedster by the name of Chris Johnson is the man of the day, and I have to be honest, I’m more excited to watch this game than any one of the “important playoff implication games”. Call me a fantasy football junky if you want, but I’m here to tell you, my interest in this game has no fantasy implications. Nope, I just like to see history.

Chris Johnson has a chance to rush for 2000 yards on the season, and even more amazingly, pass up Marshall Faulk’s all time single season yards from scrimmage record. That’s pretty cool. See, every year some teams go to the playoffs and some teams don’t. Some teams step up this time of year and some teams just pee down their collective legs – but that stuff always happens. What Chris Johnson is going to do in Seattle, well that will be the first time anybody’s ever done that – and that’s why I’m excited to see it. Do work Chris!

Tennessee Titans (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks

Arses Five Favorites: Week 17 NFL Predictions

Well, I got back on the winning track in Week 16, and while it wasn’t a fantastic four win week like I’m always hoping for, 3-2 brings me to 17-13 during my six week run of free picks. The Falcons, Packers, and Patriots won and covered easily while the Dolphins just failed outright and the Eagles needed a late field goal to win by three. This week seems pretty easy to me. But I’m staying away from those meaningless games that some other people think are gimmies – listen, I know you play hard when you have everything to lose and if the Saints sit all their starters, it should be an easier game for Carolina – but it doesn’t always work out like that, and I’ll pick some games where I’m not relying on a good team to play back-ups. Final regular season week, and here we go, go, go…

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Chicago (-3) @ Detroit: The Bears are an easy pick, so easy that it makes my stomach lurch a little bit – but hey, Vegas can’t be right all the time, right? Right. The Bears need this game, really. They are the only crappy team in the NFL that actually needs wins. Their 1st round pick isn’t theirs, see, they need this one.

The 49ers (-7) @ St. Louis: The Rams are beat up bad, and they aren’t good when healthy. I doubt Steven Jackson gets thrown out there against Patrick Willis and that Niner run D, and without him the Rams are hornless.

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Miami: The Steelers are the better team, and they don’t need magic and religion to get into the playoffs – they need help, don’t get me wrong, but unlike Miami, they don’t need every single team in the NFL to lose on the same day. I see the Steelers, definitely a team that rides ups and downs, flying to their third straight win – but missing the playoffs anyway.

Ravens (-11) @ Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are brutal, and even the Ravens aging secondary should take advantage of that turnover prone passing attack. All the Raiders can do is run, and they can’t stop the run – that’s a bad combo when Baltimore walks into town.

Titans (-5) @ Seattle Seahawks: I can’t wait to see Chris Johnson out-gain the Seahawks on Sunday. The kid is going to go for 400 yards. There will be 12-15 Seahawks playing defense at one time, and he’ll still get his. The Titans should win easily, and Jim Mora should resign due to coaching how to quit.

San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans Christmas Day NFL Week 16

San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans Christmas Day NFL Week 16: Listen, I don’t want to make this about more than it is. One of these two teams is better than the other. One of these teams has something to play for. One of these teams has a better defense and a more impressive offense. One of these teams in an underdog despite clearly being the “One team” in all the above statements. I know it seems crazy, but I’m taking that team to win outright on the road in this one.

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To talk about the Chargers for a second, it seems they haven’t lost a December game since they’ve been a player in the AFC. They’ve been a handful for anyone and everyone come playoff time, or the last month of the season, and this year is no different. The Chargers started a little slow, falling far behind the Denver Broncos in a mediocre AFC West, but 9 wins in a row can quell lots of problems, and the Chargers have taken a solid lead over the rest of the AFC not playing home games in Indianapolis.

The Tennessee Titans also went on a pretty spectacular run, especially when you consider their 0-6 start to the season. Since then, and since they inserted Vince Young into the starting quarterback role, the Titans are 7-1 and continue to do their best in the spoiler role.

But the bottom line is the Titans have beaten just one team with a record better than .500 as of today. One. The Arizona Cardinals, in Tennessee. Now Arizona can be a great team, no doubt, but they can also be terrible, and having that single home win over a better than .500 team doesn’t impress-a-me-much. I’ll take the powerful dogs in this one.

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Tennessee Titans:

St. Louis Rams vs Tennessee Titans Week 14 NFL Free Pick

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St. Louis Rams vs Tennessee Titans Week 14 NFL Free Pick: This line moved from 11 (which I thought was a little high considering how well the Rams defense has played lately, and how the Titans don’t put up a ton of points per game – 20) to 13.5 at most books. The move was early, and as of Thursday Night you could get the game at 14 at one book. I’d be surprised if that option continues to exist, as +14 seems like too good of a deal despite the 60% public bet on the home team Titans.

Listen, I know the Rams have a single win to their name, and I know I’ve been quoted calling them the worst team in football, but I’ve seen one hell of a turnaround with this team, and it all started after the Colts pistol whipped them 42-6 in St. Louis on October 25th. Since then, the biggest loss they’ve had was a 10 point defeat to the Seahawks in a game that was pretty close. They’ve covered 4 of their last 5 spreads, and they even won a game (though it was against Detroit). I’m not ready to call them good, but their defense is playing good football, they have a good coach that is changing the losing mentality, and I wouldn’t be stunned if they found a way to pull a big upset over the next few weeks.

Do I think the Titans will lose? I’m not saying that, they’ve been playing even better football than the Rams over the last 5 weeks, and they have a very good rushing attack and a quarterback that rarely loses. They also have a pretty solid defense. But 13.5 points? No, I think that’s way too many, thank you. I’ll take the Rams.

St. Louis Rams (+13.5) @ Tennessee Titans:

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Point Spread Pick

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Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Point Spread Pick: It’s very hard to bet against Peyton Manning – the guy never gets down, he’s a brilliant leader, and he has his team’s confidence in any situation, up or down, early or late, in the rain or shine. As a guy that has never loved Peyton Manning, he’s grown on me. His dominance of the position, his amazing accuracy, his command of the offense, just everything about the way he goes about his business is impressive. Plus, he might be the best I’ve ever seen do what he does, and that, if nothing else, will give a player points in my book.

That being said, I’m going against him here. I said last week, in a virtual push (3 points or less) I will almost always go with Peyton. But this week they’re giving 7 points away to one of the hottest teams in football, a team that’s powerful rush-first attack might just be a tough match-up for the Colts. Vince Young has been very good since becoming the starter once again, and the defense has also come alive in recent weeks. I think 7 points is too much, and with all that undefeated talk all week, about how the Colts are going to rest even if undefeated becomes a possibility, I just get the feeling this might be the week.

The Colts have already locked up the division, and while they still have some things they want to get done, and Peyton shouldn’t have too tough of a time finding open spaces in the Titans’ secondary, seven points leaves me with too much to like – so I’ll take the Titans.

Tennessee Titans (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts

Arizona Cardinals vs Tennessee Titans NFL Free Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (+1) @ Tennessee Titans NFL Free Pick: Alright, the Titans have been money since the staff got their heads all cleared up and removed Kerry Collins from the starting quarterback position. Since then, normal Vince Young things have fallen into place – the Titans have just won football games, and luckily for their backers, they have just covered them as well. That’s 4 straight wins and 4 covers in a row for the Titans.

And Vince hasn’t just been a runner, he’s been an accurate passer and kept defenses honest on all four occasions. Vince has completed over 65% of his passes, thrown 3 touchdowns and had only 1 interception since he became the starter. Vince’s presence has also opened up things for Chris Johnson. The fastest back in the NFL has been explosive all year, but since Vince has taken over, CJ has rushed for over 130 yards in all four games. He has over 640 yards in those 4 games, and has scored 6 rushing touchdowns in those games. That’s big time.

But I think the Titans flounder here. I think Kurt Warner and those Cardinals receivers end up doing a little too much against the Titans secondary. I also think Beanie Wells gets enough yardage on the ground to do some damage and keep the Titans more honest than they’ll want to be. Arizona will probably hold Chris Johnson to fewer yards than he’s had in any of the Titans recent wins. Arizona is 5-0 on the road this season, and they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games – they are just as hot and prepared to win this one as the Cardinals are. The Titans are also coming off a short week.

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans Free Football Pick

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Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-4) Free Football Pick: This line moved up after I took the Texans, going up to 4.5 despite seeing the public bet go the way of the visiting Titans. Interesting. Maybe the public sees that the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these two teams. Maybe the public is smitten with the Titans current three game winning streak after starting the season 0-7. Maybe people are seeing that Vince Young is a winner, and the Titans haven’t loss since the former Texas Longhorn got back in the starting line-up. Or maybe they see the Titans’ dominance over the last 9 games, winning 7, covering 5 of the last 7.

But I see the Titans this year, and the Texans are a different team this time around as well. I think Tennessee is somewhere in-between how they started and their last three games, not one or the other. They aren’t a dominant football team, they aren’t a winless squad either. Don’t get it twisted and think that just because they’ve won 3 in a row they are back to the team they were a year ago. Oh no, oh no. They don’t have that defensive power or swagger for that matter.

And the Texans, like I said, they aren’t the .500-ish team they’ve been the last few years, they are a team that played solid football in all but one game this season. On the road against teams like Arizona, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Cincinnati – they may just be 2-2, but they have only one loss by more than a touchdown this season. They have a very good passing attack, a rushing game that can be explosive, and a defense that has played very well over the last 4 weeks.

They may not be the popular pick this week, but the better team at home by just four on Monday Night Football seems like an easy bet to me.

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans Free Pick & Preview

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Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Tennessee Titans Free Pick & Preview: I got this game at +7.5 and was stoked about it. Yet every “expert” on Covers seems to love the Titans to cover by a touchdown at home. 66% of the public has their money on the Titans. All this and the spread has actually moved in the Titans favor, right now you can get them at just under a touchdown in most books. I guess it opened at -6, ran to -7.5, and has found a cozy little home at 6.5 – oh the life of the spread…

I see what the public sees here, and who knows, that might be the way it goes this Sunday. I see Chris Johnson and Vince Young and that Titan rushing attack that has been dominant like everyone expected them to be all season. I see Buffalo’s injury ridden defense and the fact that they can’t stop the run very well when they are healthy anyway. I see two straight wins for the Titans, and a 10-31 loss to the Texans and a bye week for the Bills. You know, when you lose big before your bye, the public basically counts that as two losses. So there you have it, this is the view from the public tree – and it’s all pretty accurate.

But what they are missing is the fact that Buffalo has actually played pretty well in most their losses. They were leading Houston 10-9 before Matt Schaub went all Tom Brady on the Bills defense, and Ryan Moats scored three 4th quarter touchdowns to ice it and make it look a lot more lopsided than it was. I see a 24-25 loss to New England that Buffalo, frankly, should have won. They beat up on Tampa Bay – they played tight with New Orleans until the 4th quarter (very similar to Houston), and they beat the Jets and Panthers before losing to Houston. They’ve won 2 of their last 3 games, have only really been beaten up by the Jets, and are playing a Titans team, that despite the public’s admiration and respect, have just 2 wins in 8 games this season. Plus, the Bills have played their best football on the road.

Needless to say, I think 7 points is way too many. 7.5 is even better!

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 8 2009

So, 7-6 isn’t the glorious same as 10-3 but it’s a winning week nonetheless – yet another winning week, and the season continues to be good. Week 8’s preview is short and sweet, but you’ll see 7 winners and 6 that didn’t go so well. Here goes…

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Atlanta Falcons (+12) @ New Orleans Saints: (WINNER)  “It’s Monday Night Football, these are two good football teams, it’s an NFC South rivalry game, the Saints are coming off a lucky comeback win, the Falcons are coming off a disappointing loss, 12 points is just too much on that stage with those circumstances.  I know the big favorites have dominated the season thus far, but games like this just don’t get 12 points – that’s way too many.” I hope everyone going with the Saints learned a valuable lesson, no matter how good you are, the value can easily fall with the challenger.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ Green Bay Packers: (WINNER) “Now it’s very hard to beat a good opponent twice in the same season, but I just don’t see these two teams as equals.” I think that’s what it came right down to. The Packers have some great pieces, but the Vikings have a better offense and a better defense, and they showed that by beating the Packers twice in as many tries.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3): (WINNER) It’s awkward, but Vince Young wins. His numbers aren’t great, but with a rushing attack like the Titans have, and now teams have to pay attention to Vince, that just opens up the run game for the Titans. Vince didn’t run for tons of yards, but him being a threat gave Chris that little extra room he needed – either that or the Jaguars are just brutal defensively – either one, got this one right on.

Oakland Raiders (+17.5) @ San Diego Chargers: (WINNER) “The Chargers aren’t a great football team. They aren’t in the Patriots, Giants, Colts, Saints, Vikings, type group. That pretty much makes them a bad-value-bet as a double digit favorite. When that double digit favorite moves over 3 scores (a couple touchdowns and a field goal) they move even farther away from value and into a whole new category of auto-fade. Can the Chargers beat the Raiders by 3 touchdowns? You bet. It’s just not a great bet to happen.” Like I said, the Chargers aren’t one of the best teams in football, and are basically an auto fade as a HUGE dog like there were on Sunday.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals (-10): (LOSS) “Many sharp bettors see this game as great value for the Panthers. They have a rushing attack that should be able to get some yards against an Arizona front 7 that has basically eliminated rushing attacks all season long (ranking #1 in stopping the run) and Arizona is coming off a huge win, almost surely ready for down game. And this line, in my opinion, is too close to wager too much, but I like the Cardinals despite the inflated spread.” So, everything except that last part pretty much spot on. The Panthers did run on that vaunted Cardinals defensive front, but even more surprising was the fact that their defense suckered Warner into a half a million turnovers. If John Fox (or whomever is in charge of the Panthers offense) doesn’t get in the way of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, this team can do some damage going forward.

St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3.5): (LOSS) The Lions, in my opinion, have hit a new low. Sure, you say they’ve won a game, and that’s true, but last year they didn’t lose to the worst team in football. This year they did, well, they lost to Steven Jackson, and Jax is the greatest player on the worst team in football. I watched a lot of this game, because I’m a little bit sick, it was just as painful as it seemed.

San Francisco 49ers (+13.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER)  “I liked the 49ers at -12 to start the week, but this one has a chance of getting to 14 points. Oh, that would make me feel so good. Still, 13 is a good number to get past as well, that way a touchdown and a couple field goals up still keeps me in the money. An out right win would surprise me, but don’t put it past the 49ers, staying within 13 seems like a good bet to me.” The bottom line is, and this should be universal, you don’t give a good team nearly two touchdowns. Say what you want about the Niners, but I’m thinking that by years’ end, you’ll come around, you’ll label them a good team. They proved their worth while holding Peyton without a passing TD, but some key injuries might hurt them a little.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-3): (LOSS) The Jets dominated this game offensively, but the Dolphins had Ted Ginn Jr.  – NOw lately that has been a bad thing to have, dropped passes, basically unreliable and almost a liability because defenses hardly have to get in his way because he’ll drop the passes all by themselves. But this week he was a kick returner, and on one return he was the sole reason for the touchdown. They say it’s the blocks and the lanes, but Ginn Jr. sat in one place, had 4 tackles go past, and went from 0-60 in about .5 seconds. It was dirty. Those special teams’ covers will kill a cover, just ask the Jets who played well both defensively and offensively.

New York Giants (+1) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (LOSS) Am I wrong about the Giants? I know Ellie is back in full force, but is this team really going to break my balls a fourth week in a row? I might just take them again. The Eagles have showed me some strength against a solid defense, they are really playing well, I’m sure that will come back to haunt me soon.

Denver Broncos (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: (LOSS) The Broncos ran into a buzz saw Ravens defense that was tired of being labeled “losing their dominance” and they certainly got handled. It was a close game at half, but that kick off return TD reared it’s head again, and from then on the Ravens put it to the Broncos hard. I guess Josh McDaniels had to lose one sooner or later.

Houston Texans (-3) @ Buffalo Bills: (WINNER) It took a quarter or two, but the Texans just started handling the Bills. Buffalo is an absolute mess and Houston proved they can win running the ball as well, even if it’s with Ryan Moats. That’s right Moats blew up the Bills’ weak spot, run defense, while Matt Schaub took a back seat to get the W. Houston won easily.

Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Chicago Bears: (LOSS) The Browns have lost it, maybe even Raiders style. I didn’t know what I was getting myself into, the Bears -14 seemed like suicide, but I have to realize going forward that some numbers look bad but some opponents look worse. Even Matt Forte ran well in this one – we’ll see how it goes next time out for Jay Cutler and the boys.

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5): (WINNER) “The Hawks have only played well against the league’s lesser teams, and while Dallas might not be Super Bowl bound, they are definitely a team fighting for a playoffs spot this season. All things considered, I just think Dallas’s pass rush will be too much.” That was a big difference in the game, the Hawks completion numbers were pretty high, but they had too many negative plays, and the Cowboys brought too much pressure for the Hawks to burn them deep. Matt just didn’t have enough time. Until the Hawks get healthy, pass rushing teams will eat them up.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans NFL Free Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3) NFL Free Pick: The Titans have obviously been brutal, at least lately. People forget that they challenged to win each of their first three games, losing by 3 to the Steelers on opening night, by 3 to the Texans in Week 2, and falling by 7 to the Jets in Week 3. After that it’s pretty much been a vertical slip’n’slide into a pit of lava. The Titans have lost three more since their defeat at the hands of the Jets, getting outscored 127-26. That includes one of the most lopsided defeats in NFL history, a 59-0 drubbing by the Patriots that included 5 touchdown passes in the 2nd quarter alone by Tom Brady. The Titans also lost 17-37 at Jacksonville to start off that three game self destruction. Yes, needless to say, it has been bad in Tennessee.

It hasn’t been flowers, sunshine, and sausage gravy in Jacksonville either. The Jaguars have 3 wins to their names, but most recently needed overtime to beat the Rams (that’s like losing) and prior to that were embarrassed by the Seahawks, of all teams, 41-0 in Seattle. Despite being a running team, Maurice Jones-Drew hasn’t been as effective as many expected, getting held under 70 yards in three games this year, including a 6 carry for 14 yard performance against Tennessee. MJD is still having a solid season, but he’s done that primarily when taking advantage of good match-ups against bad run defenses. The Titans insert Vince Young into the starting quarterback role this week, and that could go one of two ways, bringing the Titans forward or dropping them back. It can’t get much worse than 0-6, no doubt, and, at the very least, Vince Young has been a winner throughout his football career. Will it be enough to win by more than 3 points against the Jaguars? I think so. I think the extra week off helps the Titans, gets them off the snide, and back in the winner’s column.