Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Football Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are easily playing their best football of the season, running with success and playing much better defense. Not only did they smack around the Seahawks two weeks ago, using an arsenal of turnover causing defensive plays, but they went and upset a fully-healthy New Orleans Saints team in New Orleans last week as well, all behind rookie signal caller Josh Freeman. It’s really quite fantastic, I mean beating up on the Seahawks in Seattle is one thing, almost expected if you spend time watching them quit Sunday after Sunday, but the Saints in New Orleans – awesome.

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But that can’t last. You might think it can, but I’m here to tell you it can’t. The won both those games on the road, and that will make winning at home just a little bit different, just a little too different. The Bucs have a solid run-game, but I think the Falcons will feast on a couple arrant Freeman passes, and hello, Atlanta is good. I know they are hurting, definitely a team beat down by injuries this year, but they still have playmakers, and are just flat out better than Tampa Bay.

It all comes down to Tampa Bay winning three games in a row, and how I just absolutely cannot buy into it. If it was a one game thing, with Tampa coming in losing five straight, I could see the upset, but after winning two games in a row? Nope.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction: New Orleans is awesome and it’s claimed they’ll be starting and playing their best players exclusively, not slowing their offense down over the last two weeks despite having home field locked up throughout the NFC playoffs, aka, the part of the playoffs that is actually important to have home field advantage in – because, well, home team advantage matters not in the Super Bowl, unless you think the team that wears white has a better chance to win. In which case you are a donkey.

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Despite New Orleans being awesome, and their coach claiming they would be going gung-ho for victory, I have a feeling the Saints won’t go all out in this one. If they game has proven a good enough tune-up by halftime, I think the Saints do begin to rest players. With that in their head, and the feeling they have after finally losing a game last week, I actually think the Bucs at +15 are a fine bet.

Tampa can be very streaky, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that they have a freshman project quarterback running their offense, a freshman youthful coach running their sideline, and an entire team full of youngins. But streaky isn’t such a bad thing against the Saints, a team that has shown an ability (or knack) for playing down to their opponents. 15 is a lot of points for a Saints team with absolutely nothing to gain from playing all out in this one. The Bucs are too young to think about all they don’t have to play for, so I like them to cover on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15) @ New Orleans Saints

Papas Picks: Predictions for NFL Week 15 2009

Last week I only pulled out one win, this up and down roller coaster crap will make an old guy poop himself, but hopefully I can make it to Lucky’s pillow before I let it go. I can’t believe I ever picked the Seahawks, good lord they are an embarrassment. The Bears as well. Oh well, the Chargers made sure I didn’t go winless, but everyone else made me look like a senile gray nose haired bastard. Some would argue that a mirror would show the same thing, but some would get punched in the face by an old guy – and how can you press charges against an old guy? I love me some dogs this week, and I all but guarantee three wins from this bunch. Hold your breath…

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San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Philadelphia: Lucky said it right when he mentioned that the 49ers have one single double digit loss this season – only one single loss by more than one score – that’s good enough for a +9 bet no matter who they are playing. I liked seeing Mr. Singletary get back to his run game last week against a good run defense – and while I’m sure the Niners will shoot themselves in the foot with the pass, they are good enough to play with the Eagles. Close games are their MO.

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans: I don’t know why, but the Dolphins look like a good bet here. They are questionable in the secondary, but that shouldn’t hurt them too bad here. They have been able to run on anyone, and that could help them keep this close. Expect them to take a few more chances this week. They might lose, but Tennessee is king of the field goal win, and that still makes my Dolphins an ATS winnner.

Green Bay Packers (+2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I don’t get it. Are the books senile too? This crap never gets old, last year’s super bowl team no longer exists guys, that’s a thing of the past, like when skinny jeans took over for MC Hammer pants as the next thing that is cool now that will be remembered with lots of suck, the Steelers are an old champ that resemble hammer pants in today’s game. I’m taking the Pack by a couple scores. Champions don’t play all that well with nothing on the line, and their line has been stepped right over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Seattle Sehawks: Boy the Hawks are bad. Josh Freeman shouldn’t have as much trouble against this soft defense that has loved giving up big plays. Expect the Bucs to do just enough, going as far as nearly pulling the upset in Seattle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks: Week 15 Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks Week 15 Picks: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might have a worse record than the Seattle Seahawks, but it’s hard to say which team has managed a more terrible and disappointing season. While Tampa has managed just a single win, a flukey offensive performance against the Green Bay Packers what seems like ages ago, the Seahawks have consistently looked terrible against any team worth half a penny. In their healthiest game of the season since about Week 1, the Hawks got full throttled by the Houston Texans last week, giving up 7,322 yards in the first five minutes of the game. It looked like Houston was running a two-minute drill against 8th graders. But, despite all that mumbo jumbo, I’m going with the Hawks at home by 7. I don’t know why I’m doing it, but I’ll try to explain the best I can.

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Seattle is 4-2 at home, and obviously they are so weak mentally that they think playing at home actually gives them an advantage. They are one of the worst teams in the league on road, second to only a couple teams, one of them being the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Buccos have yet to win a road game this season.

67% of the public bet is on Seattle, and I’ve always questioned taking a team that is 3 games under .500 yet favored by a touchdown – but I think Seattle can run early and often on the Bucs, and if Jim Mora can promptly remove his head from the suit of aces, and give the ball to his most explosive offensive player (Justin Forsett) then I think they’ll wing the game easily. Nothing like putting your chips on Jim Mora’s logic…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-7)

New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview & Pick

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New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview & Pick: The Jets started out hot, playing awesome defensively and giving just enough help behind their rookie quarterback to score enough to win games, but that was how it started. After going 3-0 to start the season, the Jets have lost 6 of their last 9 games, but they’ve been playing tough teams (sans the Raiders, Panthers, and Bills – all of which they beat with relative ease). The Jets have lost to just one team with a losing record, the Bills, on October 18th, in overtime, 16-13. Aside from that one slip up, they’ve proven too skilled defensively against bad offenses.

With big time playmakers in the secondary, they’ve forced a lot of bad throws and even worse completion percentages from opposing quarterback. It seems like the Bucs, and rookie Josh Freeman, are a likely candidate to have a lot of trouble against that aggressive Jets defense. The Jets have not allowed more than one offensive touchdown to a team with a losing record just once this year, they allowed two TDs in a win over the Titans. The Jets defense might just be too good for the youthful Bucs offense.

Offensively, the Jets will be without their rookie quarterback, but I’m not sure how much that hurts them. Kellen Clemens looked bad in reserve duty last week, but with a week of starter reps under his belt, I’m willing to bet the Bucs don’t give him too much trouble. Plus, like the Panthers, a 2nd string QB might be a good thing, if it means more runs and less pass attempts, they win this one easily.

New York Jets (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Week 13 Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Week 13 Pick: I think the bettors are falsely in love with the Buccaneers, because as of now, the public percentage rests with the Buccos. The line keeps moving in the other direction however, and when I’m taking a spread that has that kind of backward crazy round about movement, I find comfort in being on the side I’m on here. The public likes Tampa, the smart bets seem to like Carolina, and thus the line moves opposite the masses.

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What the bettors see in Tampa Bay is pretty simple, and I have to respect it at lest a little. They see a team that has won against the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, all of which were quarterbacked by their prized rookie, Josh Freeman. The kid has shown he can make all the throws, and while he hasn’t been deadly accurate, he’s shown an ability to make more plus plays than minus – that’s something Jake Delhomme hasn’t been able to do for the Panthers.

But maybe now that Delhomme is likely to miss Sunday’s game, or at the very lest, likely to be less than 100% as a thrower, the Panthers will do what they should have been doing every single game this season, throwing less than 20 times while running more than 40. Against the Buccos, I have to like that percentage, especially with the running backs and offensive line push-power the Panthers have shown. With Delhomme out, I actually like Carolina more. There’s only a couple situations like that in the league (see Oakland, Detroit, and Buffalo).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-6)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Football Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+13.5) @ Atlanta Falcons Football Pick: I knew you’d be able to get this game at a better number later in the week, because despite what Atlanta’s recent history suggests, everybody thinks this offense is too explosive to play a close game against a tomato can like the Buccos. But wait, just like that, I was wrong – the line actually went down from the 13.5 I got it at on Monday Night – and now sits from 11.5 to 13 – both of which I think are decent bets, but obviously not as good as the touchdown and two field goal loss by the Bucs that would still pay me for a win. Regardless, check out my thoughts and see which way you want to go.

The public liked Atlanta so much, 60%, that the line went down in their favor – hmmm… Vegas doesn’t know everything, but I’m just saying. Tampa had played well in 3 of 4 games before getting beat up by the Saints last week, 38-7. They played Miami tough (probably should have won), beat up on Green Bay (the 10 point win probably doesn’t tell the whole story) and were right there with the Panthers two weeks prior to that (they also got smoked 35-7 by the Patriots somewhere in-between there, but that was in England, what happen in England, well, sucks – just ask Avi from “Snatch”).  They’ve played solid football under rookie QB, Josh Freeman, and they can run the ball. That gets me excited.

The Falcons aren’t a double digit favorite team, as you can see by their 5-5 record, and their two wins by 13 or more points all season long. The Falcons beat up on the 49ers and Washington Redskins. Tampa has played 6 of their 10 games within 13 points of their opponent. Yeah, they have one win, sure, but a running game and a young passer with a couple solid receiving options – against the Falcons defense? – yeah, I like some points going up for the Bucs. I also like Tampa’s chances of slowing the Falcons offense with Turner out. Go Bucs!

Papas Picks: Week 11 NFL Underdogs! Jets, Raiders, Rams

I’m buying what the dogs are selling. That’s right, I believe last week’s winners weren’t a fluke. I’m going back to them and the big points they are getting!

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Tennessee Titans (+4.5) @ Houston Texans: Vince is back baby! Okay, maybe Chris Johnson is the guy flourishing, but the Titans continue to win when Vince is at the helm, undefeated since his return to the top spot, and I think that continues. They were good last year, they’ve been good lately! I’m buying in for +4.5! You bet!

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (+10): Yeah, I know, the Rams didn’t win last week you say, well they did in my book, and every other sports book. As you well know, the winners don’t always win in this game. The Rams have been awesome on the ground, running on everyone lately – that has to continue for them to have a chance, but the Cardinals are known to throw up a stinker form time to time – and Steven Jackson can keep the Rams close.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5): What do all the Saints recent struggles have in common? Well, they’ve won them all, but they’ve lost ATS or struggled in games Sedrick Ellis has missed. He’s out again, and with no dominant run stuffer to clog the middle, the Saints D just ins’t the same. Plus, Tampa has played well of late, giving many a team hell. The rookie QB, Josh Freeman, has been plenty good to cover them spreads.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+11.5): I can’t believe I’m getting 11.5 for the Chiefs in KC. That’s awesome. The Steelers have blown two teams out this year, and the Chiefs (while only winning two of their last 5) have covered 4 games in their last 5 chances. The short passing game of the Chiefs should cut down on the Steelers explosive blitzes, I think the Chiefs cover their 5th in 6 games.

Washington Redskins (+11) @ Dallas Cowboys: I like the Redskins here. What can I say, their defense is too good to get 11 from Dallas, and this is a big rivalry game. The Redskins may be 3-6, 2-6-1 ATS, but they’ve had some close games against good teams, and they won last week, beating up on the Broncos. I believe!

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (-11) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Pick: The Saints haven’t played well over the last few weeks, the Buccaneers have been pretty solid considering how pathetic they were to start the season. Those two things have to even out, I mean, the Saints are really good and the Bucs aren’t. Josh Freeman can’t be as polished as he’s looked in his first two games starting, and Drew Brees has to torch a Bucs secondary that hasn’t been beaten much in the past couple games.

Teams with solid pass blocking and good quarterbacks have destroyed the Bucs this year. New England, Philadelphia, the Giants, and Dallas all beat the Bucs by 13 ore more points. But the Bucs have been good since Josh Freeman took over, and the scores have reflected that. After beating the Packers in what seemed like a fluke, the Bucs almost put another big upset together, falling just short of beating the Dolphins in Miami.

But like I said above, that kind of stuff has to fall off one of these weeks. And while the Saints have managed to stay undefeated despite less than stellar performances over the last 3 weeks, you’d think their close calls in 4 straight would keep them focused enough against a team like Tampa Bay.

It’s not the Saints offense that gets me most excited about New Orleans chances at covering this spread, but the way their defense can pick on arrant passes. The Bucs don’t have a dominate rushing attack like the last 4 teams New Orleans has struggled with, I think that’s the main reason I’m taking the Saints here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins Point Spread

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5) Point Spread: The Dolphins are probably the best team in the NFL that has a losing record. I think they’re a little better than San Francisco and basically better at everything that the Titans do well. So they’re better than them too. Miami has had one of the tougher schedules in all of football, their 5 losses have come against Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego, New Orleans, and New England. They’ve beaten the Jets twice, and Buffalo – not too exciting in the win column, but tough losses. And they’ve played close with everyone. They’ve been in every single game in the 4th quarter. They have been unlucky, to say the least.

But now the easier part starts, you have Tampa Bay coming down for a nice in-state match-up against an NFC basement dweller. There’s probably very few times I’d take the Dolphins -9.5, but this is a great situation for that. If there’s ever a time, it’s now. Miami has terrorized mediocre rush defenses, the Bucs can’t even claim to be that good. The Bucs are coming off a win, that will probably not happen again this season. The Dolphins need this one really bad if there’s any hope left in finding the playoffs. The Buc’s rookie QB, Josh Freeman, has major hype coming into this game because of his 3 TDs in his first pro start – but he only completely 14 of 31 passes against the Packers – that accuracy (or lack of) will hurt him against a defense like Miami’s.

And then you have Tampa, every “good” team they’ve played this season has crushed them. New England, Philly, the Giants, and the Cowboys all won by 13 points or more. The Dolphins could run the Wildcat exclusively and beat the Bucs by 10. Give Henne the week off! Give Ronnie 30 carries….