Tag Archives: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions NFL Free Pick

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Green Bay Packers (-10) @ Detroit Lions NFL Free Pick: The Packers might not play very consistently against good teams (well they do play consistent, as they consistently don’t live up to their projected talent expectations – but you know what I mean) but they do beat up on the tomato cans. Okay, they lost to Tampa Bay – but somebody was bound to lose to the Buccos, and Tampa has played decent football the last few weeks. Prior to that, the Packers were 3-0 against the league’s cellar dwellers, outscoring the Browns, Lions, and Rams 73-20 in those three games.

It might have to do with defensive pressure and the fact that all the tomato cans struggle to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. If you can’t disrupt what Aaron Rodgers does through the air, you don’t have a chance against the Pack. The Lions have been out-passed in 8 of their 10 games, and have given up an inordinate amount of passing touchdowns through 10 weeks of football. They even gave up 304 yards and 4 touchdowns to Brady Quinn and the Cleveland Browns – yeah, those Browns, the same Browns that probably didn’t have 4 passing touchdowns all season.

I actually like the Lions a little better with Culpepper in there, but that was before Matthew Stafford went all tough-guy on the Browns and came in to throw a game winning touchdown with no time on the clock despite the seperated shoulder that will likely keep him out of this week’s tilt with the Packers. It’s a Nation TV game, and the Packers are going to show up. Getting a short week should help the better team, the team with less injuries. That’s the Pack.

San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers Pick & Preview

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San Francisco 49ers (+7) @ Green Bay Packers: I know the Packers beat the Cowboys last week, making them look downright pathetic on offense, and less than impressive on defense, but 7 points? Against a pretty legit 49ers team that has a pretty solid resume despite being 4-5 on the season? Really? It’s not like Green Bay came out and kicked the Colts around or ousted the Patriots or dominated the Saints – they beat a Dallas team known for pooping the bed on any given week. Big deal.

These Packers have one single win against a team with a winning record, and that just happened to come last week against Dallas. Before that, the Packers best win was Chicago. Yeah. They beat the Bears 21-15 in Green Bay, other than that, what do Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Louis do for you? Can you say 3 of the 4 worst teams in football? (The Raiders inevitably get into any “worst” lists, so I can’t justify leaving them out here). These Packers even lost to Tampa Bay (and thus nobody will go winless this season, how kind of them).

Against teams that really commit to running the ball (like the 49ers), the Packers are 0-3 (Minnesota twice and Cincinnati). Plus, did I mention they were slammed by 10 in Tampa freaking Bay?

The 49ers have lost 4 of their last 5 after starting the season 3-1. But they’ve been blown out one time (Atlanta). They lost to Houston by a field goal, Indy by 4 points, and Tennessee by a touchdown. Their first loss came when Brett Favre threw a 40 yards laser/hail marry touchdown as time expired in Minnesota. The Niners can play with anyone. Even the Packers. San Fran is 3-0-1 ATS on the road, and they’ve had to go up against Arizona, Minnesota, Houston, and Indy in those road games.

Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings Free Football Pick

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Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) Free Football Pick: I know everyone and their mother is going to be on Minnesota, and I know the line has actually gone down from where it opened despite that fact. That’s usually not a good sign. But how can one justify betting money on the Seahawks right now? I know the value is there for them, they aren’t the Lions, Rams, Raiders, Browns or Bucs and they are getting double digit points – that, in and of itself, has value. But when risk is greater than value it’s either a no bet or a pick for the home favorites. Since no-bets aren’t a part of my daily grind, I’m going to go ahead and go for the latter.

Forget history, because this is Brett Favre’s Vikings team, and this is his first year running this show. Forget that this is Seattle’s biggest underdog spread all year long, because this is the best team the Hawks have played all year long. Also, Seattle has been a big dog (9 points or more) three times this season. What’s their record in those 3 games? 0-3 straight up and against the spread. They were beaten by 11 in Arizona last week despite going up 14-0 in the first quarter. They were beaten by 21 in Dallas. And the Colts slapped them around by 17 in Indy as a 10 point favorite.

Could the Vikings have a let down? Sure. It’s possible. And the Vikings have shown some open alleys in that secondary. But should Seattle be able to give Matt Hasselbeck the time he needs with that offensive line against that defensive front? Should the most physical running back in the NFL have trouble against a defense that really struggles to tackle physical runners? Should Brett Favre give the Hawks a pity win like he gave Michael Strahan a pity sack back in the day? That answer is NO! To all those questions.

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 10 2009

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If you look hard enough, you’ll see basically two different weeks for my selections this time around. You’ll see my losses (Sunday Morning was tough for me) and my wins (the afternoon and night games brought me right back) – the bottom line is, it wasn’t a great week, but as I’ve done almost every mediocre week this season, I still finished out of the red. In 15 games this week I managed 8-7 and moved 1 more game over .500 for the season. I’m not a big fan of 8-7 weeks, double digit wins is kind of my thing, but when the tough gets tougher, a winning week feels good enough! Here’s how it went down!

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Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5): (WINNER) The 49ers didn’t try too hard to win, but with Jay Cutler throwing them the ball in the red-zone, they didn’t need to. A late field goal put the 49ers up 10-6, and a last minute interception in the end-zone (Jay’s 5th on the night) slammed the door shut on the Bears, giving me a nice cover to start my week.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Carolina Panthers: (Loss) “Okay, I get it, this is obviously a trap game for the public bettor. And I see what Vegas sees in this one, really, I do, and yes, I’m making my Falcons pick anyway. What does Vegas see, you ask? Well, they see a Falcons team that can’t stop the run, has lucked out lately, and hasn’t really played elite football consistently all season long. They are just 1-3 on the road, and that offense that was supposed to dominate this season – they’ve been out-gained in 3 of the last 4 games and their opponents have gained more yardage through the air in 6 of their last 7 – even Jake Delhomme and the Panthers out-passed Matty Ice and the falcons. But despite all this, the hype train is running at full speed.” I hate, hate, hate, hate when I see what Vegas is banking on and I go against it despite my better judgment. I hate even more how much worse 8-7 seems than 9-6. Anyway, tough one for me, I’d like to think it would have been different had Michael Turner continue the 250 yard game pace he was on, but I’ll never know. Dang Vegas! You won this one, but I’ll win the war!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5): (Loss) The Dolphins were out-played by the Bucs. That’s the last thing I thought I’d ever say this year, but it’s true. Luckily, they are the Bucs, and in almost every opportunity they’ll find a way to lose. Well, lucky for the Fins, not as lucky for me, I needed them to “really lose” and 2 points wasn’t enough. I still don’t know how the Bucs stayed this close.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16): (WINNER) Just by the hair on my chinny chin chin – and yes, that’s right, I do keep hair on my chin for situations such as this. Unless I shave soon, I might have to start saying “just by the hair on my necky-neck-neck” – but I’m planning on running into a razor sometime this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-6.5): (Loss) Oh, the Jets can disappoint a guy, that’s for sure. I thought Sanchez had his swag back, but apparently not. The Jets defense just didn’t show up, and the Jaguars somehow limited the Jets rushing attack. I expected neither of those things to happen. That’s how you become wrong, when things just don’t go the way you expected them to go.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (WINNER) This was a huge one for me. The Bengals once again held the Steelers out of the end zone most of the day (well all day this time) and Cincinnati did just enough to pressure Big Ben (and not let him get away from sacks) and despite losing their stud running back, the Bengals just found a way to win. Amazing. Regardless of the outcome, it was easy to see that 7 points was just too much.

New Orleans Saints (-13.5) @ St. Louis Rams: (Loss) Really? The Rams? How can a guy predict this stuff? Will the Rams play well next week too? Will New Orleans play like dump against a bad team? I can’t wait to search for those answers… The Rams were a 2 minute drill touchdown away from upsetting the undefeated Saints, but weird, they just couldn’t get it done when it mattered most.

Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Tennessee Titans: (Loss) Well, I liked this pick heading into the 4th quarter, that’s for sure. Neither team had scored much, it was tied, 7.5 was looking great! Then the Bills did what they do late in games, 24 points were scored in teh quarter, none by the crappy Bills offense (or their team, for that matter) and the final score makes me look like a clown… It was close! I promise! I know you didn’t watch this terrible game, but it was close!!! If you never watch the Titans because they have stunk all year, and last year they weren’t expected to be good so they got no National TV games, you have to tune into Monday Night Football this week – Chris Johnson is some other kind of fast – awesome to watch that guy run!

Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins: (Loss) I don’t know what happened here. Even if Orton goes down, you’d think the Broncos could find some way to beat this Redskins team. But no, Jason Campbell actually looked good throwing the ball at times on Sunday, getting some nice touch on short passes, and using his receivers’ strengths. If he had pocket awareness the Redskins would be decent. Alright, that might be going too far, but defensively, the Redskins stopped the Broncos all day long.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) The Raiders are not as good as Kansas City. Their coaching staff is a question mark, their players are wondering what they hell they did earlier in life to deserve this crap, and their owner uses batteries to make his black heart beat – as for the way the Raiders play football, their offense won’t do them any favors, that’s for sure.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-8.5): (WINNER) Papa Weimer tried to pick against me in this game, what a crazy uncle I’ve enlisted. Didn’t he listen to a word I said? The Cards are a terrible match-up for the Hawks and Seattle fans. As they’ve shown lately.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3): (WINNER) I almost always pick against teams that don’t look or play very good and still win. That was the Cowboys last week against the Eagles, and what do you know, they come out with a dud this time around… Green Bay completely shut down everything the Packers did, and when they did allow a little bust in coverage, they just out-toughed the Cowboys and caused fumbles.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ San Diego Chargers: (Loss)The Eagles have just fallen apart of late, and if they don’t get it together (now without Westbrook) they are going to fall right out of the playoff race (maybe not, there’s only 3 teams in the NFC with 6 wins). Philly needs to find a running game in a hurry, they sure didn’t find one against the Chargers.

New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) Most of the time, when you pick the winner of a football game, you also will win ATS. Especially when it’s not a double digit spread (I’m telling you, do the research and the math, you’ll see the numbers). This was one of those times where that didn’t work out. Many will blame Bill for his 4th down call on the 28, and I have to admit, I wouldn’t have done the same thing – but giving Peyton Manning the ball on about the 25 yard line (with a good punt) with 2 minutes and two timeouts might be a 50-50 chance to win. Getting two yards basically wins you the game. I wouldn’t do it, but I see why he did it. Either way, it looks bad, the Colts came back to win, the Patriots still covered. I won’t lose any sleep over it.

Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (WINNER) This one was eerie at half time when neither team had put up a point. Gross. I think I’d rather watch a quarterback competition between Jon Gruden and Jaws than the crap I watched on Monday Night. But, the Ravens managed a few points in the 3rd quarter and what do you know, one quarter of points was enough to oust the Brownies and show everyone exactly what they I said earlier in the week, “This team is bad, and last time the Ravens played them, the Browns were exposed for exactly what they are. A team with no offense, no defense, and a clown in a man suit acting as head coach. Dreamy situation. Yeah, I’ll take Baltimore.”

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers Football Pick

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Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3) Football Pick: Oh, I definitely see what the public likes in Dallas here. The Packers are overrated, they can’t give Aaron Rodgers enough time to use his elite arm and awesome wide receiving corps, yet they think they should throw the ball 75% of the time. They got beat up pretty good by the Vikings, and then went and lost to the Tampa Bay Bucs, everybody’s favorite team to go winless in 2009. Then you look at what the Packers have actually done, who they’ve beaten, you get a number of JV teams and a mediocre Chicago Bears squad. (Cleveland, St. Louis, Detroit are their other wins – nice…)

But I have to believe the Pack will come to play on Sunday afternoon in Green Bay. The Cowboys didn’t look very good offensively last week against Philadelphia, and I’d almost say that the Eagles beat themselves more than Dallas taking the victory. Obviously Dallas has a pass rush that could give Green Bay a lot of trouble, but they also have WRs that should give the Packers secondary a lot of trouble. Guys like Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones are all very physical receivers that run great routes – the Cowboys are susceptible to the deep ball, and I think Green Bay takes advantage a few times this week.

Those big plays will be enough to get the Packers the home win, or so I imagine – that Tampa loss will act as a nice little wake-up call for a Packers team that better shape up or fade into obscurity. The Cowboys are coming off a huge win over the Eagles, and they didn’t really play that well. That’s a good combination for a Packers cover.

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free Pick

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Green Bay Packers (-9.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free Pick: I normally don’t even like thinking about Green Bay as a big favorite, they just don’t commit to running the ball enough to be a sure thing as a big favorite -but this Bucs team, they make the whole process a lot easier. I do think Tampa Bay can find some running room against the Packers run defense, especially if Green Bay comes in thinking they are going to win because they are better. But a tough loss to Brett Favre and the Vikings should be enough to sober them up for a big performance against a Bucs team that really shouldn’t compete.

The Packers have shown more of a commitment to the run against bad teams. Maybe they feel like they have time to score, and thus they don’t rush the big plays as much, and Grant gets to pound away at lesser defenses. If the Packers continue that trend, and I have to think they will, this should be an easy cover.

The Packers have an aggressive defense and Tampa Bay is starting their first round quarterback for the first time. The Packers have aggressive corners that should test Josh Freeman’s confidence early and often. A couple mistakes by the Bucs, and this thing can turn into a blowout in a hurry. 76% of the public likes Green Bay, yet the line moved away from it’s opening -10. That’s always something that makes me wary. Still, I have to go with the Pack here, it’s their side or no side at all.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Prediction

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Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ Green Bay Packers: Now it’s very hard to beat a good opponent twice in the same season, but I just don’t see these two teams as equals. Last time out, the Packers did a good job of shutting down Adrian Peterson, but Brett Favre had wide open places to throw the ball, basically beating his old team single handily. I don’t see the Vikings getting  their rushing attack shut down again, especially against a Packers team that doesn’t normally do a great job stuffing the run. AP is one hell of a player, one of the most powerful and physical backs I’ve seen, and his running style should pierce the Packers front 7. Green Bay has beaten Minnesota 5 out of the last 6 times they’ve played coming into this season. But the Vikings are obviously a different team now. Minnesota is coming off a loss to the Steelers in which they should have won. They moved the ball better, were in position to put points on the board more, but just couldn’t find a way to get the points side of the job done. This is the first time Brett Favre will find himself back in Green Bay playing football, something that will surely be emotional for him. He’s always been better with emotions flying, I see no reason to believe this will be any different. Vikings and points? You bet, sign me up!

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 7 2009

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9-3-1… That is a record I would love every single week of the year. We could all be rich off that type of pick production and I’m going to do my best to make that happen the rest of the way. Of course, I’m always doing my best, making my picks, assessing the sitch-e-ation, and get the right side against that dreaded line. This week I missed on the Cowboys/Falcons game, and I didn’t give the Cardinals enough credit and might have given Eli a little too much after a nice start to the season, so those two games I fully accept as losses. But the Vikings? Please. They cover that game 8 of 10, and if it wasn’t for two freakish defensive touchdowns in the last 6 minutes of that game, the Vikings cover anyway. That being said, I must say I probably shouldn’t have covered the Saints/Dolphins game. So I guess 9 is right after all. Regardless, I won 9 games in a 13 game week, that’s good stuff, here’s the business….

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Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ Washington Redskins: (WINNER) The Eagles were playing awfully poorly to be up 20-7 in this game, then on 3rd and 24 Donovan threw a bomb to DeSean Jackson for a touchdown to go up 27-7. It was over at that point, basically, because everyone knew there was no way the Redskins were going to score 20 points from there forward. The Eagles tried to dissolve their easy cover, but Washington just couldn’t do enough – lucky me. The Skins D was solid, despite some big plays they allowed, if they only had an offense…

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants (-7): (LOSS) Eli looked more like Ellie in this one, missing on passes, getting them tipped, having that pouty face, getting some drops from a couple of those young receivers, just having an all around tough go of it. And of course they forgot to run the ball despite the success they had early. Oh the Giants, this is what they’ll do to you every once in a while, can’t dominate for all 16 games. Kurt Warner and company played solid football, definitley, but it was Arizona’s secondary that stole the show.

New York Jets (-5.5) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) “Unlike the Eagles, the Jets won’t forget the run, in fact, I think they’ll rely more heavily on it than any game this season. The pressure won’t be on Mark Sanchez’s arm, but the offensive line and a talented running back group. That should spell certain doom for a Raiders team looking to make it two wins in a row.” Well, the Jets lost one third of their talented running tree, but Shonn Greene came in and showed what he can do as the Jets had two runners bust well over the 100 yard mark. The Jets just flat out dominated, getting the Raiders to pull JaMarcus Russell, and think how bad he’s played this year while never getting the yank. Yeah, it was that bad.

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Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: (LOSS) Hey, I’ve always been here to take it when I lose, and I definitely underestimated the Cowboys in this one. That defensive front came to play, giving Matt Ryan trouble all day long, proving that you can still frazzle the young quarterback if you put the pressure on. With the Cowboys up big early, the Falcons pretty much abandoned the running game, taking away their strength on the ground with Turner and also Ryan’s most accurate part of his game, the play action. Kudos to the Boys. Great game for Mr. Romo as well.

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1): (WINNER) “The Bengals, favored at home, against a mediocre NFC team – yeah, I like my chances. Now, the Bears shot themselves in the foot all week long against the Broncos, and the game was still very close – but that doesn’t mean it’s going to carry over here. The Bengals also have a very good defense, a secondary that preys on mistakes by opposing quarterbacks, often baiting them into poor throws. Cedric Benson will have something to prove in this game, and I think he’ll get his teammates to climb on his back for this victory. He’s been running angry so far this season, and I think he’s been looking forward to this match-up for a long time.” Well, the Bengals preyed on Jay Cutler, baiting him into bad Jay Cutler-ish throws, and Cedric Benson stomped all over Chicago’s couches. It was a fun one to watch.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins: (WINNER) I really want to take the Dolphins here. I know the public is going to be jocking the Saints like nobody’s business, and Vegas is on pace to hit a few like that coming up. But I can’t buy enough into the Dolphins in the match-up. Why? The Saints have been too good against the run, and more importantly, too good running the ball. That’s right, you heard me. Lost in Drew Brees’s amazing season thus far is the glue that’s truly making this team great, the running back by committee approach. While Drew has been on fire, people forget to realize that this rushing attack has out-rushed every single opponent they’ve gone up against this season. That means two things, the offensive line has been dominant, and also, the defensive front has been stellar. You don’t out-rush every single opponent unless you can stop the run when you’re not on the field. That single aspect of this Saints defense makes me think the Wildcat might have met their match. I’d love to see the upset here, I just don’t think it will happen.

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Minnesota Vikings (+4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (LOSS) This should have been a cover. If you watched the game, you feel me. If you didn’t, just believe me. The Vikings were the side in this one, but sometimes you lose games you should win, and other times you win games you should lose – this time I was un-LuckyLester…

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (WINNER) “Big spreads for road favorites can often backfire with a pass happy team struggling to complete passes. But I see the Packers running the ball more this Sunday, holding the ball longer, and covering by at least a touchdown in Cleveland. Vegas or the people? Who wins this Sunday? Damn the man!” Hooray us, damn the man is right! Like I predicted, the Packers finally gave a good number of chances to the guy that should be their work horse, Ryan Grant. It kept Rodgers off the turf, and the ball in Green Bay’s hands. With that kind of attack, the Browns never stood a chance.

New England Patriots (-14.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (WINNER) When you have a great team against a crappy team, at least this season, the chances are really low that the crappy team is covering, even with a big bad spread like this one. The Patriots throw 5 touchdowns in a quarter, or anything like that, but this game was in hand very early. All these big favorites are covering, that goodness I had a bunch of them this week.

Buffalo Bills (+7) @ Carolina Panthers: (WINNER) “I don’t see what the Panthers have done to be a touchdown favorite against anybody in the NFL.” Regardless of what anybody thinks about these two teams, the bottom line was just as I wrote it, the Panthers shouldn’t be favored by 7 over anyone. The Bills didn’t do anything offensively, couldn’t really run it, and didn’t have great passing numbers, but they didn’t need to. The Panthers give points away weekly, and if you can just let them beat themselves, you’re in.

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San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Houston Texans: (PUSH) The 49ers fell down early, 21-0, and the Texans were definitely in charge. A quarterback switch, an inspired defense, and some big plays from Vernon Davis got the Niners right back in it, but they fell short a field goal, getting me a push. I’ll tell you what, being down 21-0 at the half, without an explosive offense, and still getting a psu – if that’s what bad looks like, I’ll be alright.

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) I was right on here, loved the Chargers by a touchdown or more, and they followed through and made me look good. The bottom line was that SD’s defense played very well last week, despite what most people remember from that Broncos’ game, and they continued that inspired play against the Chiefs, giving away absolutely nothing all day long. They won easily. Me too.

Indianapolis Colts (-13) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) Just a gimmie, a no doubter, the Rams facing two weeks of prepared Peyton Manning – it was 42-6, and I don’t think it was that close, I’ve got to be honest.

Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns Free NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ Cleveland Browns: Lots of stuff has me thinking this is a great bet. There’s the Flu that’s going around Cleveland like flies swarm cow poo, there’s the fact that Cleveland’s quarterback has a 44% completion rate on the season, or that Green Bay has played much better defensively over the past three games – many, many things say Packers. But 81% of the public likes this bet, and that’s a red flag if I’ve ever seen one. One thing Cleveland does better than Green Bay is control the ball, their time of possession is solid despite the inability to complete passes and being prone to turnovers. Big spreads for road favorites can often backfire with a pass happy team struggling to complete passes. But I see the Packers running the ball more this Sunday, holding the ball longer, and covering by at least a touchdown in Cleveland. Vegas or the people? Who wins this Sunday? Damn the man!

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-13): The Packers coming off a bye week preparing for a Lions team that has a list of injured players you couldn’t count using just your fingers (who can count past their fingers these days anyway?) – It’s hard not to be all gung-ho about the Packers chances at winning by a couple touchdowns. But the Lions have been decent in some games this season. They got kicked around by the Saints in Week 1, sure, but they fought and battled tough in their last 4 games, giving the Vikings, Redskins, Bears, and Steelers all they could handle (in fact, they gave the Redskins more than they could handle). You look at the scores, and Pittsburgh was the first time the Lions lost by less than double digits this season, and even that took a late touchdown strike from Daunte Culpepper. But the injuries are mounting, and while I don’t like going against a double digit dog, especially one that plays better on the road, it’s too hard to look past the 4 starting defensive players that are questionable, the best player on their team is also questionable (Calvin Johnson), and their running game hasn’t been good against anybody so far this season. What does that tell me? If I’m leaning one way, I’m taking the Packers coming off a bye week.