Arizona Cardinals VS New Orleans Saints: NFL NFC Divisional Playoffs

How can the Cardinals play as well as they did last weekend? Kurt Warner almost had more completions than he did attempts, and that’s actually impossible. The Saints defense is tougher than it gets credit for, and though they will be missing their starting defensive end, as Grant’s out for the season, they will be as healthy as they’ve been in the secondary in a long time. That will play a big role in this weekend’s tilt with the Cardinals. Because, if I know anything, I know Captain Kurt will be winging that pigskin around.

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The Saints lost their last 5 games against the spread and actually lost their final three games straight up. They were 8-8 ATS this season, just 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games, which means, yes, they were 6-0 ATS to start the season. Aside from their first loss of the season, in Dallas in Week 15, the Saints dominated playoff teams, beating the Eagles 48-22, the Jets 24-10, and the Patriots 38-17. The question is, which Saints team will show up? The team that dominated both sides of the ball during the first 13 games of the season or the team that held on for dear life in the last 3 games, two of which they were actually trying to win?

The Cardinals rarely put two solid games together all season long. They won a few big games against big time opponents (okay, they only playoff team they beat during the regular season was Minnesota) but most of their good wins were either surrounded by losses or followed by them. I expect the Saints to play their best football of the last 6 weeks, and I suspect that will be enough to beat a Cardinals team that won’t be on fire like they were last week.

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints (-7)

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos NFL Betting Preview

This is a scary match-up for Denver, I’m telling you. Sure, Denver is in a must win situation against a pretty bad Chiefs team, and they are playing in Denver to boot, but with everything happening the way it has happened this week in Denver, and with the Chiefs coming in running the ball well, this game could be a grinder. And a grinder against a bottom 5 team to get into the playoffs is never a good thing.

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I know the Broncos can beat up on the Chiefs, they’ve done so against lower level competition a few times already this year, but can they do it with all the crap flying around this team right now? The benching of your best player because he’ supposedly over-doing his hamstring injury? They need to win and get in, and all the Chiefs have to do is come and make it a game? This game has upset written all over it.

You might say that the Chiefs, like the Rams, have nothing to play for except hurting themselves come draft time – but they aren’t going for the top pick, and they aren’t committed to any one position come draft time, plus a win for this first year coach over a team fighting for the playoffs would be huge for the team’s confidence going forward – that, my friends, is something to play for. And I like all those points, seems like too many to me!

Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ Denver Broncos

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions NFL Week 17 Pick

Welcome to absolutely meaningless football, or at least I think it is. It’d be great for the Lions to win this final game, but then again, it might keep Lovie Smith employed if the Bears come out victorious against Detroit’s hapless Lions. So maybe there is something to fight for after all… Hmm…. Something to fight for or not, it’s about time somebody figured out the Bears are bad – only a 3 point favorite in Detroit after beating up on the Vikings- something has to be trying to trick us. But I still have to go with the public here and ride the Bears to victory.

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Chicago might be bad, a lot worse than people expected, but they aren’t Lions’ bad. The books are expecting a big let-down after Monday Night’s offensive explosion against Minnesota, and I agree, there will be some sort of let-down. But a let-down against the Lions still leaves room for some error and some victory. Jay Cutler looked as comfortable as he’s been all season when throwing balls to Devin Aromashadu to win the game last week. Well, his favorite young receiver is back, and his running game will be able to see some success on Sunday as well.
A combination of those things and the reality that this is the Lions, playing in Detroit where they are often at their worst, during a completely lost season – has me going with Da Bears.

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions

Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick

Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick: Sure, the Falcons won last week in a game they probably didn’t have any reason to win – they were playing with nothing to gain, with some key injuries, and a banged up defense that had struggled all season – but they won anyway. And the Bills, well, they lost again. But it’s not that easy, and I really think the Bills are playing their best football of the season while Atlanta just made a win out of a situation where their opponent just couldn’t put them away. Another loss and a Falcon win helped this spread be what it opened at, and getting the Bills at +9 seems like a deal to me.

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Shoot, at one book, you can even get the Bills at +9.5 – which is definitely better than 9. 35-24, 27-18, 30-20 – I’ve seen those happen a lot, 9 point games aren’t crazy, so if you can get that extra half point, that’s nice – but I think this game will be closer than 9. First of all, the Bills love to run the ball, and run it they will. 2nd of all, getting up to play a Jets team with playoff aspirations is one thing, but getting up when you have no chance at the playoffs against the 5-9 Buffalo Bills is a completely different deal. To put it simply, I don’t see the Falcons coming out and doing that.

Atlanta has played in close games all season long, winning only 3 games by more than 8 points, and playing plenty of close games in which they lost. The Bills have played in plenty of close games lately, and despite winning just 2 of their last 5, have finished within a touchdown or less in each loss. Look for this one to be close.

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons

Papas Picks: Predictions for NFL Week 15 2009

Last week I only pulled out one win, this up and down roller coaster crap will make an old guy poop himself, but hopefully I can make it to Lucky’s pillow before I let it go. I can’t believe I ever picked the Seahawks, good lord they are an embarrassment. The Bears as well. Oh well, the Chargers made sure I didn’t go winless, but everyone else made me look like a senile gray nose haired bastard. Some would argue that a mirror would show the same thing, but some would get punched in the face by an old guy – and how can you press charges against an old guy? I love me some dogs this week, and I all but guarantee three wins from this bunch. Hold your breath…

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San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Philadelphia: Lucky said it right when he mentioned that the 49ers have one single double digit loss this season – only one single loss by more than one score – that’s good enough for a +9 bet no matter who they are playing. I liked seeing Mr. Singletary get back to his run game last week against a good run defense – and while I’m sure the Niners will shoot themselves in the foot with the pass, they are good enough to play with the Eagles. Close games are their MO.

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans: I don’t know why, but the Dolphins look like a good bet here. They are questionable in the secondary, but that shouldn’t hurt them too bad here. They have been able to run on anyone, and that could help them keep this close. Expect them to take a few more chances this week. They might lose, but Tennessee is king of the field goal win, and that still makes my Dolphins an ATS winnner.

Green Bay Packers (+2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I don’t get it. Are the books senile too? This crap never gets old, last year’s super bowl team no longer exists guys, that’s a thing of the past, like when skinny jeans took over for MC Hammer pants as the next thing that is cool now that will be remembered with lots of suck, the Steelers are an old champ that resemble hammer pants in today’s game. I’m taking the Pack by a couple scores. Champions don’t play all that well with nothing on the line, and their line has been stepped right over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Seattle Sehawks: Boy the Hawks are bad. Josh Freeman shouldn’t have as much trouble against this soft defense that has loved giving up big plays. Expect the Bucs to do just enough, going as far as nearly pulling the upset in Seattle.

Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Betting Picks

Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Betting Picks: The Green Bay Packers are probably the better team, but just barely, and not by nearly as much as everyone would like you to think. The Steelers, even in their saddened state, are still a great even bet at home – it’s not like they have injuries up the kazoo, they still have plenty of studs and Super Bowl champs, and it’s not like Green Bay is above a loss to a struggling team. Remember, if it weren’t for the Packers, the Bucs might still be battling winless infamy. But Green Bay has played well, and Pittsburgh has dumped in their girdles, but isn’t that bound to turn around soon?

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I know Pittsburgh is out of it, but this is still a team with a lot of pride, you can’t say anything else about a winning organization like this. Green Bay struggled against Chicago last week, and the Bears aren’t much. The Steelers are also very good at home, beating Minnesota, San Diego, and Tennessee there already.

The Packers are good, and there winning streak has been impressive, but I’m still not sold on their ability to pull away from a good team. And the Steelers can play this game. They can also win a close one late, and that might be what the deal ends up being here. I like Mike Tomlin and trust his ability to win a big game before the season is over – playing spoiler is something the Steel-show can do very well.

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (pk)

Cincinnati Bengals vs San Diego Chargers Pick & Preview

Cincinnati Bengals vs San Diego Chargers Pick & Preview: I don’t know why this line is the way it is. Giving the Bengals seven points in San Diego is basically saying the Chargers are 4 points better than Cincinnati – and that I can’t buy into. I may be a little bit cynical, but the amazing 8-win stretch that San Diego is currently rocking is just another reason for me to go with my gut and take the Bengals. Cincinnati is coming off their worst performance of the year (if you throw out that loss to the freaking Oakland Raiders) while the Chargers are coming off a game where they played so-so and beat the Cowboys. The Bengals won’t dump in their pants two weeks in a row, and the Chargers are bound to struggle a bit more really soon.

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San Diego is 10-3, yes, but it’s not like the Bengals are chunky soup – they are 9-4 and have beaten up on some pretty good teams this season. They can run, pass, play damn good defense, and have a team full of emotion after the death of their teammate earlier in the week. I’m not playing the “emotional” card, I’m going with my original feeling about the game, but I definitely believe that the majority of athletes play better when they are trying to prove something, right a wrong, fight for something – and there’s a chance the current situation in Cincinnati helps the Bengals play better this week.

The bottom line is you don’t give a good team a touchdown, and that’s exactly what’s happening here. I know the Bengals played bad last week, but a team playing bad last week is a terrible reason to go against them. Upset city, folk, the 7 points are even that much nicer.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ San Diego Chargers:

Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos: NFL Week 15 Pick

Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos NFL Week 15 Pick: I don’t know what it is about this bet that makes me feel so good, maybe the fact that Denver plugs bad teams, or maybe the idea that the Oakland Raiders will be starting a practice squad player that failed to make it with all the other teams that gave him a chance, or maybe the fact that Al Davis is using up all the team energy to power the breathing unit that keeps oxygen entering his life system. Shoot, I know a lot about this game has me liking the Broncos at -12.5 – I’d be happier at -10, because it’s not like this offensive unit is stellar in Denver, but I’ll do with 12.5.

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The “practice squad player” isn’t a running back or a lineman or a kicker, the guy is going to get the nod at quarterback for the black and silver. And who is going to be second string? That’s still a toss up between J.P. Losman (signed six minutes ago) and JaMarcus Russell (infinitely one of the biggest number one busts of all time) or Al Davis himself. This is beginning to become a bad joke with so many punchlines that my eyes are swelling shut – either from the punches or the tears, or both.

Sure, the Raiders have surprised some teams, especially lately, and they have a decent rushing attack – but you can’t argue for one minute that this group of guys really stands a chances with the “front office people” (Al Davis and Al Davis) running the show. I feel terribly for Richard Seymour. That’s all. Denver, do it.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-12.5):

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears NFL Free Pick

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Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears NFL Free Pick: The Bears are bad, folks, really. If their numerous losses don’t prove that to you, go ahead and look at their wins. Add up every single one of their wins, mix them in with a 10-year-old bin of crap in your garage, and see if you can tell the difference between anything after a good shake. You say, Pittsburgh, I say – maybe. But before I admit the Bears have beat one good team, I’ll mention the fact that both Oakland and Kansas City also beat that team. How many teams have that gold nugget on their resume? Right.

So aside from the Steelers, the Packers have taken down powerhouses like Seattle (with Seneca Wallace starting at QB), Cleveland, Detroit, and just last week, they beat the mighty Rams by 8 points at home in Chicago. Nice. Yes, there is nothing impressive about this 5 and 7 team. Not at all.

The Packers, on the other hand, the hand that you didn’t just wipe with because you ran out of toilet paper, are a good team, and don’t look now, but all that youth and excitement is actually getting even better. They’ve drafted some great young players and their switch to a 3-4 is utilizing all of that talent. They have become a run-stuffing dynamo and their coverage in the secondary claims one of the best defensive players in football, Mr. Charles Woodson.

Aaron Rodgers, and even Ryan Grant, should tear up this Bears defense that has had a very tough time stopping potent offenses. I like the Packers by 14-21 points on the road. Help me out Jay, I know you will!

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Chicago Bears

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Clemson Tigers Prediction

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Clemson Tigers Prediction: This game has me really nervous after the week’s numbers, and the way the lines have shifted. I got this game on Tuesday back at GT -2.5, and that’s what I have to stick with, but almost every book has this game at even, and the ones that don’t have the Jackets favored by only a point, and there’s even one book that has Clemson favored in the ACC Title game. 64% of the bets are coming in on the Jackets, but the line has moved in the Tigers favor, hmmm…. That’s always tough on a guy like me, I try to think of it all.

Now I can see what there is to like about Clemson. The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games, the underdog in this match-up is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings, and the Yellow Jackets are coming off a game where their run game got shut down pretty well by a mediocre Georgia defense. Who has a very good defense? The Tigers, that’s who, up front they are very talented and I can imagine the books see a possible problem for the Jackets there. All they have is a run game, if that’s stopped, they have nothing.

But, Clemson gave up a ton of rushing yards to the Gamecocks last week as well, and I can’t see the Yellow Jackets struggling two weeks in a row on the ground. While the match-up is a good one, a great run game against a great defensive line, I think the Yellow Jackets are just flat out the better team. That gives them the nod in my book.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2.5) @ Clemson Tigers: