NFL Free Picks Review: Week 10 2009

If you look hard enough, you’ll see basically two different weeks for my selections this time around. You’ll see my losses (Sunday Morning was tough for me) and my wins (the afternoon and night games brought me right back) – the bottom line is, it wasn’t a great week, but as I’ve done almost every mediocre week this season, I still finished out of the red. In 15 games this week I managed 8-7 and moved 1 more game over .500 for the season. I’m not a big fan of 8-7 weeks, double digit wins is kind of my thing, but when the tough gets tougher, a winning week feels good enough! Here’s how it went down!

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Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5): (WINNER) The 49ers didn’t try too hard to win, but with Jay Cutler throwing them the ball in the red-zone, they didn’t need to. A late field goal put the 49ers up 10-6, and a last minute interception in the end-zone (Jay’s 5th on the night) slammed the door shut on the Bears, giving me a nice cover to start my week.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Carolina Panthers: (Loss) “Okay, I get it, this is obviously a trap game for the public bettor. And I see what Vegas sees in this one, really, I do, and yes, I’m making my Falcons pick anyway. What does Vegas see, you ask? Well, they see a Falcons team that can’t stop the run, has lucked out lately, and hasn’t really played elite football consistently all season long. They are just 1-3 on the road, and that offense that was supposed to dominate this season – they’ve been out-gained in 3 of the last 4 games and their opponents have gained more yardage through the air in 6 of their last 7 – even Jake Delhomme and the Panthers out-passed Matty Ice and the falcons. But despite all this, the hype train is running at full speed.” I hate, hate, hate, hate when I see what Vegas is banking on and I go against it despite my better judgment. I hate even more how much worse 8-7 seems than 9-6. Anyway, tough one for me, I’d like to think it would have been different had Michael Turner continue the 250 yard game pace he was on, but I’ll never know. Dang Vegas! You won this one, but I’ll win the war!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5): (Loss) The Dolphins were out-played by the Bucs. That’s the last thing I thought I’d ever say this year, but it’s true. Luckily, they are the Bucs, and in almost every opportunity they’ll find a way to lose. Well, lucky for the Fins, not as lucky for me, I needed them to “really lose” and 2 points wasn’t enough. I still don’t know how the Bucs stayed this close.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16): (WINNER) Just by the hair on my chinny chin chin – and yes, that’s right, I do keep hair on my chin for situations such as this. Unless I shave soon, I might have to start saying “just by the hair on my necky-neck-neck” – but I’m planning on running into a razor sometime this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-6.5): (Loss) Oh, the Jets can disappoint a guy, that’s for sure. I thought Sanchez had his swag back, but apparently not. The Jets defense just didn’t show up, and the Jaguars somehow limited the Jets rushing attack. I expected neither of those things to happen. That’s how you become wrong, when things just don’t go the way you expected them to go.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (WINNER) This was a huge one for me. The Bengals once again held the Steelers out of the end zone most of the day (well all day this time) and Cincinnati did just enough to pressure Big Ben (and not let him get away from sacks) and despite losing their stud running back, the Bengals just found a way to win. Amazing. Regardless of the outcome, it was easy to see that 7 points was just too much.

New Orleans Saints (-13.5) @ St. Louis Rams: (Loss) Really? The Rams? How can a guy predict this stuff? Will the Rams play well next week too? Will New Orleans play like dump against a bad team? I can’t wait to search for those answers… The Rams were a 2 minute drill touchdown away from upsetting the undefeated Saints, but weird, they just couldn’t get it done when it mattered most.

Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Tennessee Titans: (Loss) Well, I liked this pick heading into the 4th quarter, that’s for sure. Neither team had scored much, it was tied, 7.5 was looking great! Then the Bills did what they do late in games, 24 points were scored in teh quarter, none by the crappy Bills offense (or their team, for that matter) and the final score makes me look like a clown… It was close! I promise! I know you didn’t watch this terrible game, but it was close!!! If you never watch the Titans because they have stunk all year, and last year they weren’t expected to be good so they got no National TV games, you have to tune into Monday Night Football this week – Chris Johnson is some other kind of fast – awesome to watch that guy run!

Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins: (Loss) I don’t know what happened here. Even if Orton goes down, you’d think the Broncos could find some way to beat this Redskins team. But no, Jason Campbell actually looked good throwing the ball at times on Sunday, getting some nice touch on short passes, and using his receivers’ strengths. If he had pocket awareness the Redskins would be decent. Alright, that might be going too far, but defensively, the Redskins stopped the Broncos all day long.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) The Raiders are not as good as Kansas City. Their coaching staff is a question mark, their players are wondering what they hell they did earlier in life to deserve this crap, and their owner uses batteries to make his black heart beat – as for the way the Raiders play football, their offense won’t do them any favors, that’s for sure.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-8.5): (WINNER) Papa Weimer tried to pick against me in this game, what a crazy uncle I’ve enlisted. Didn’t he listen to a word I said? The Cards are a terrible match-up for the Hawks and Seattle fans. As they’ve shown lately.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3): (WINNER) I almost always pick against teams that don’t look or play very good and still win. That was the Cowboys last week against the Eagles, and what do you know, they come out with a dud this time around… Green Bay completely shut down everything the Packers did, and when they did allow a little bust in coverage, they just out-toughed the Cowboys and caused fumbles.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ San Diego Chargers: (Loss)The Eagles have just fallen apart of late, and if they don’t get it together (now without Westbrook) they are going to fall right out of the playoff race (maybe not, there’s only 3 teams in the NFC with 6 wins). Philly needs to find a running game in a hurry, they sure didn’t find one against the Chargers.

New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) Most of the time, when you pick the winner of a football game, you also will win ATS. Especially when it’s not a double digit spread (I’m telling you, do the research and the math, you’ll see the numbers). This was one of those times where that didn’t work out. Many will blame Bill for his 4th down call on the 28, and I have to admit, I wouldn’t have done the same thing – but giving Peyton Manning the ball on about the 25 yard line (with a good punt) with 2 minutes and two timeouts might be a 50-50 chance to win. Getting two yards basically wins you the game. I wouldn’t do it, but I see why he did it. Either way, it looks bad, the Colts came back to win, the Patriots still covered. I won’t lose any sleep over it.

Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (WINNER) This one was eerie at half time when neither team had put up a point. Gross. I think I’d rather watch a quarterback competition between Jon Gruden and Jaws than the crap I watched on Monday Night. But, the Ravens managed a few points in the 3rd quarter and what do you know, one quarter of points was enough to oust the Brownies and show everyone exactly what they I said earlier in the week, This team is bad, and last time the Ravens played them, the Browns were exposed for exactly what they are. A team with no offense, no defense, and a clown in a man suit acting as head coach. Dreamy situation. Yeah, I’ll take Baltimore.”

Week 10 NFL Picks Review: 2007

“We finally get into the double digits, and if you know my game, this is where I start making up for any early season blunders.” How’s 7-0 for a start to the double digit weeks? Check in next week as I try to continue my run to the fortune 100… Here’s my review.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) @ Tennessee Titans: win
(Line: Wednesday, 10:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Jaguars just imposed their will on the Titans, and some of it probably had to do with Albert Haynesworth being out of the game. However, the Jags just wanted this one more, and it came down to losing the season opener on their own home-field against these very Titans. These teams are so even that the little things, like redemption, are so important going into a game like this. The Jags won, and I won big.

Denver Broncos (+4) @ Kansas City Chiefs: win
(Line: Wednesday, 10:00pm EST: SBG Global)

“From the sound of it, the Broncos are ready to play up to their potential. Denver has been down for most of the year, despite one game against the Steelers, and they very well could have lost that game. Anyhow, Denver has the talent to compete with the best, and I think they’ll put the Chiefs away with relative ease at Sunday’s game in Kansas City.” This was definitely a pretty easy win for the Broncos. Selvin Young filled in nicely for Travis (THC) Henry and Jay Cutler did enough of his thing for the Broncos to get the W. However, the key in this game was the Broncos defense, a unit that finally stepped up when they needed to.

St. Louis Rams (+13.5) @ New Orleans Saints: win
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

“Honestly, I don’t think the Rams will need half this many points, but I’ll take all 13 and a half of them from 5Dimes. I think the Rams could pull the biggest upset of the week by finally notching their first win against a Saints’ team that comes in with way too much hype for what they’ve accomplished thus far. What have they done? After 4 straight losses, they have a good 1st half against one of the more schizophrenic teams in the NFL (Seattle) and hold on to beat them by 11. Then they sneak by Atlanta (22-16) and probably would have lost if Leftwich hadn’t been hurt (he was torching the Saints’ secondary, believe it or not) and then they beat a terrible San Francisco team in Alex Smith’s first game since his injury, and the game was very close in Jacksonville last week (despite the 41-24 score), and Quinn Gray was calling plays for the Jaguars. Honestly, I think a lot of people are going to lose their survivor pools by taking the Saints in this one.” Yes sir! You have to admit, when I call ’em, I definitely call ’em… The Saints took a lot of survivor hopefuls out when they came in playing like sour piss on their home field. They didn’t knock me out of my survivor pool – but the Colts did – suckers. Well, a win for me here, and a perfect analysis, has me feeling pretty smart.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Washington Redskins: win
(Line: Monday, 7:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

“Now that everyone thinks the Eagles are completely lost without a chance of every returning or becoming part of any sort of playoff picture, I think they’ll play a lot better. Regardless of what Andy Reid thinks, his problems have effected the team, and questions surrounding Donovan McNabb have also been swirling. All those things are pretty meaningless now that everyone and their mother thinks the Eagles are done.” I’m telling you, watch out for the Eagles, until people start talking about them making the playoffs, then they could struggle. I still think the Eagles are good enough to compete with the best in the East, and they’ll have a couple games to prove themselves moving forward. This was a huge win for the Eagles, McNabb, and Andy Reid.

Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: win
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

The Bengals kicked a bunch of field goals and never scored one single touchdown, but they still easily beat the Ravens 21-7. Seven field goals… Gnarly. Cincinnati took advantage of the Ravens’ offense absolutely sucking. Yeah, that could be the worst unit in football. Chris Henry did play for the Bengals, as he came right in and led the team in receiving with 99 yards. Do I think the Bengals can fight their way back into the playoff picture? No chance – but they are definitely good enough to outscore the Ravens – that we’ve learned.

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Oakland Raiders: win
(Line: Monday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I hope you didn’t fade the public in this one. The Raiders couldn’t do much in any facet of their offense, and the Bears, behind Rex Grossman (yes, you heard that correctly) no tched a road win in Oakland. Benson didn’t impress me much, rushing for only 76 yards on 29 carries (that’s a gross average, just trust me) but he did enough, and Rex Grossman completed a deep pass to Bernard Berrien for a big score to put a fat stainless steel nail in the coffin. Justin Fargas had another solid game for the Raiders, but Josh McCown was pretty much useless, completing just over half his passes for 108 measly yards and an interception. The Bears went to 4-5 with a 17-6 win, making me 6-0 on Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-10): win
(Line: Monday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Hawks looked good in their initial phasing out of Shaunna Alexander, shutting down the 49ers to the tune of 24-0. The game wasn’t close, and the Hawks didn’t have to score much in the 2nd half to put this game out of reach, so the over wasn’t reached. The Hawks dominated this game from the moment Alex Smith missed a wide open Darrell Jackson streaking down the right side of the field for a sure touchdown. After that, it looked like the 49ers were lost. Frank Gore, who many have said had a bad game, rushed only 13 times for 73 yards – which doesn’t seem to bad to me. What I do know is that the 49ers are always behind, which limits their ability to use Frank.