NFL Free Picks Review: Week 7 2009

9-3-1… That is a record I would love every single week of the year. We could all be rich off that type of pick production and I’m going to do my best to make that happen the rest of the way. Of course, I’m always doing my best, making my picks, assessing the sitch-e-ation, and get the right side against that dreaded line. This week I missed on the Cowboys/Falcons game, and I didn’t give the Cardinals enough credit and might have given Eli a little too much after a nice start to the season, so those two games I fully accept as losses. But the Vikings? Please. They cover that game 8 of 10, and if it wasn’t for two freakish defensive touchdowns in the last 6 minutes of that game, the Vikings cover anyway. That being said, I must say I probably shouldn’t have covered the Saints/Dolphins game. So I guess 9 is right after all. Regardless, I won 9 games in a 13 game week, that’s good stuff, here’s the business….

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Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ Washington Redskins: (WINNER) The Eagles were playing awfully poorly to be up 20-7 in this game, then on 3rd and 24 Donovan threw a bomb to DeSean Jackson for a touchdown to go up 27-7. It was over at that point, basically, because everyone knew there was no way the Redskins were going to score 20 points from there forward. The Eagles tried to dissolve their easy cover, but Washington just couldn’t do enough – lucky me. The Skins D was solid, despite some big plays they allowed, if they only had an offense…

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants (-7): (LOSS) Eli looked more like Ellie in this one, missing on passes, getting them tipped, having that pouty face, getting some drops from a couple of those young receivers, just having an all around tough go of it. And of course they forgot to run the ball despite the success they had early. Oh the Giants, this is what they’ll do to you every once in a while, can’t dominate for all 16 games. Kurt Warner and company played solid football, definitley, but it was Arizona’s secondary that stole the show.

New York Jets (-5.5) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) “Unlike the Eagles, the Jets won’t forget the run, in fact, I think they’ll rely more heavily on it than any game this season. The pressure won’t be on Mark Sanchez’s arm, but the offensive line and a talented running back group. That should spell certain doom for a Raiders team looking to make it two wins in a row.” Well, the Jets lost one third of their talented running tree, but Shonn Greene came in and showed what he can do as the Jets had two runners bust well over the 100 yard mark. The Jets just flat out dominated, getting the Raiders to pull JaMarcus Russell, and think how bad he’s played this year while never getting the yank. Yeah, it was that bad.

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Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: (LOSS) Hey, I’ve always been here to take it when I lose, and I definitely underestimated the Cowboys in this one. That defensive front came to play, giving Matt Ryan trouble all day long, proving that you can still frazzle the young quarterback if you put the pressure on. With the Cowboys up big early, the Falcons pretty much abandoned the running game, taking away their strength on the ground with Turner and also Ryan’s most accurate part of his game, the play action. Kudos to the Boys. Great game for Mr. Romo as well.

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1): (WINNER) “The Bengals, favored at home, against a mediocre NFC team – yeah, I like my chances. Now, the Bears shot themselves in the foot all week long against the Broncos, and the game was still very close – but that doesn’t mean it’s going to carry over here. The Bengals also have a very good defense, a secondary that preys on mistakes by opposing quarterbacks, often baiting them into poor throws. Cedric Benson will have something to prove in this game, and I think he’ll get his teammates to climb on his back for this victory. He’s been running angry so far this season, and I think he’s been looking forward to this match-up for a long time.” Well, the Bengals preyed on Jay Cutler, baiting him into bad Jay Cutler-ish throws, and Cedric Benson stomped all over Chicago’s couches. It was a fun one to watch.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins: (WINNER) I really want to take the Dolphins here. I know the public is going to be jocking the Saints like nobody’s business, and Vegas is on pace to hit a few like that coming up. But I can’t buy enough into the Dolphins in the match-up. Why? The Saints have been too good against the run, and more importantly, too good running the ball. That’s right, you heard me. Lost in Drew Brees’s amazing season thus far is the glue that’s truly making this team great, the running back by committee approach. While Drew has been on fire, people forget to realize that this rushing attack has out-rushed every single opponent they’ve gone up against this season. That means two things, the offensive line has been dominant, and also, the defensive front has been stellar. You don’t out-rush every single opponent unless you can stop the run when you’re not on the field. That single aspect of this Saints defense makes me think the Wildcat might have met their match. I’d love to see the upset here, I just don’t think it will happen.

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Minnesota Vikings (+4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (LOSS) This should have been a cover. If you watched the game, you feel me. If you didn’t, just believe me. The Vikings were the side in this one, but sometimes you lose games you should win, and other times you win games you should lose – this time I was un-LuckyLester…

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (WINNER) “Big spreads for road favorites can often backfire with a pass happy team struggling to complete passes. But I see the Packers running the ball more this Sunday, holding the ball longer, and covering by at least a touchdown in Cleveland. Vegas or the people? Who wins this Sunday? Damn the man!” Hooray us, damn the man is right! Like I predicted, the Packers finally gave a good number of chances to the guy that should be their work horse, Ryan Grant. It kept Rodgers off the turf, and the ball in Green Bay’s hands. With that kind of attack, the Browns never stood a chance.

New England Patriots (-14.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (WINNER) When you have a great team against a crappy team, at least this season, the chances are really low that the crappy team is covering, even with a big bad spread like this one. The Patriots throw 5 touchdowns in a quarter, or anything like that, but this game was in hand very early. All these big favorites are covering, that goodness I had a bunch of them this week.

Buffalo Bills (+7) @ Carolina Panthers: (WINNER) “I don’t see what the Panthers have done to be a touchdown favorite against anybody in the NFL.” Regardless of what anybody thinks about these two teams, the bottom line was just as I wrote it, the Panthers shouldn’t be favored by 7 over anyone. The Bills didn’t do anything offensively, couldn’t really run it, and didn’t have great passing numbers, but they didn’t need to. The Panthers give points away weekly, and if you can just let them beat themselves, you’re in.

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San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Houston Texans: (PUSH) The 49ers fell down early, 21-0, and the Texans were definitely in charge. A quarterback switch, an inspired defense, and some big plays from Vernon Davis got the Niners right back in it, but they fell short a field goal, getting me a push. I’ll tell you what, being down 21-0 at the half, without an explosive offense, and still getting a psu – if that’s what bad looks like, I’ll be alright.

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) I was right on here, loved the Chargers by a touchdown or more, and they followed through and made me look good. The bottom line was that SD’s defense played very well last week, despite what most people remember from that Broncos’ game, and they continued that inspired play against the Chiefs, giving away absolutely nothing all day long. They won easily. Me too.

Indianapolis Colts (-13) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) Just a gimmie, a no doubter, the Rams facing two weeks of prepared Peyton Manning – it was 42-6, and I don’t think it was that close, I’ve got to be honest.

Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns Free NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ Cleveland Browns: Lots of stuff has me thinking this is a great bet. There’s the Flu that’s going around Cleveland like flies swarm cow poo, there’s the fact that Cleveland’s quarterback has a 44% completion rate on the season, or that Green Bay has played much better defensively over the past three games – many, many things say Packers. But 81% of the public likes this bet, and that’s a red flag if I’ve ever seen one. One thing Cleveland does better than Green Bay is control the ball, their time of possession is solid despite the inability to complete passes and being prone to turnovers. Big spreads for road favorites can often backfire with a pass happy team struggling to complete passes. But I see the Packers running the ball more this Sunday, holding the ball longer, and covering by at least a touchdown in Cleveland. Vegas or the people? Who wins this Sunday? Damn the man!

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 7

Push me on a swing. Push me in the water. Push me in front of a train, just don’t push me in sports. I’ll tell you, coming out of a week even is almost as bad as losing. You don’t get to be right, but you don’t get the glory of being tricked either. Just flat out .500. This is how my .500 week held on tight. 

Tennessee Titans (-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) “Thanks books. The Broncos, sure, the Chiefs can magically beat a team like Denver from time to time. Denver throws the ball a lot and hardly relies on the run to even keep teams honest. Offensive football teams like that can lose to bad teams because of freakish mistakes and miscommunication. Teams that pound you into smithereens on both sides of the ball, like Tennessee, don’t lose to bad teams that don’t do anything well, like Kansas City. The Titans are fresh after coming off their bye week and I expect them to get close to a shutout in KC.” Well 34-7 is one play away from a shut-out, and the cover was just as easy as I could have imagined. I hope you followed me on this freebee. 

San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (+1): (WINNER) The Bills roughed up the Chargers offensive line, holding San Diego’s star running back (LT) to just 41 yards rushing on 14 carries. Fred Jackson (9 for 33) and Marshawn Lynch (19 for 70) rushed for over 100 yards and Trent Edwards picked apart the Chargers secondary completing 25 of 30 passes for 261 yards. The Bills were just tougher and the Chargers looked like they played tired. Weird. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-3): (WINNER) “I also love betting against teams that won their game but got beat on the field of play – that’s Minnesota two weeks in a row.” But it took a lot of Viking mistakes to finish themselves off, that’s for sure. Minnesota probably should have won this game, but they couldn’t punt, they had penalties, they fumbled, and they were just out of sorts. These teams put up 80+ points of offense on Sunday, odd thing coming from two offenses that don’t usually spark up the scoreboard. The Bears won though, and I’ll take it. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (WINNER) “The road team always wins this match-up and while it’s normally pretty close, I just don’t think the Bengals have much confidence, leadership, sense of understanding or hope.” I’d say the score, 38-10, kind of explains what I was saying here. The Steelers did anything they wanted, and Mewelde Moore ran like Lola on Sunday. Big win here. 

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (-3): (LOSS) I liked the Dolphins to match the Ravens physicality – I apparently was wrong to like that. Ray Lewis and his helmeted avengers put a stop to that wildcat offense and took advantage of some Dolphin turnovers – it’s tough to lose the ones you like, but that was the case here. You never feel quite as bad when the chick that you don’t really like dumps you, right, but when the hot brunette that does that thing with her tongue dumps you – well, you get the picture. No? Right, that’s because I’m being obtuse. Anyway, onward march! 

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3): (WINNER) “Unlike AP and the Vikes, I do think the Panthers will be able to run against the Saints, and remember what I said, when the Panthers can run they are a top tier team in the NFC.” I’m telling you, take my advice on these Panthers for the rest of the season – if they can run the ball effectively, they are a top notch team. Just that threat opens up so many things for them, gives the defense more rest, and there probably isn’t a team they can’t beat when running the ball. Cap them like that and you’ll win some money. 

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants (-10): (WINNER) “Tougher call than you’d think, but I found a line that got down to 10 and thus I’ll run with New York. After playing some very good football for a few weeks straight the Giants were bound to falter a bit on the big stage. That doesn’t mean they are done. They were a little overrated, but they are still a top team in the league. I think their pressure and run-stuffing prowess will give them this game. O’Sullivan isn’t good enough to throw 30 times against the Giants and not get intercepted multiple times. Mike Martz will ignore that fact and thus lose this game by default.” Right? You bet – I have hit these Giants and these 49ers right on the head. The Giants won by 12, and it was just enough to cover, but it was closer than you expected. Why’d the Niners lose? Oh, I know, Mike Martz dropped O’Sully back 35 times, he only got to throw 28 times, and that was still enough for 2 picks. The other times he dropped back? Sacks galore and 4 fumbles, all lost. Keep it up Mr. Martz, opponents can’t thank you enough. Jackass. 

New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland Raiders: (LOSS) Well, the Raiders won. I don’t know how this happened. The Jets needed to go to Thomas Jones even more. Oakland played better D, and maybe they’ve found something. No, I doubt it. 

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ St. Louis Rams: (LOSER) Shame on me for taking this disfunctional family – well, at least I get to watch this bad reality TV show – who’s next on “The Football team is WRONG?” – unbelievable, these guys. Steven Jackson had enough of my “running like Shaunna Alexander” comments, and he went berserk on Cowboy defenders. What to think of this? Hmmmm…. 

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Green Bay Packers: (LOSER) I really took this one in the face. Green Bay rocked Peyton’s world with confusing tactics and pressure. Do the Colts suck or what? I can’t quite figure them out. 

Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans (-8.5): (LOSS) Welcome to the bad-beat club. The Lions got obliterated to start this game out, and the Texans just held on tight. It almost cost them, but it did cost me. This was the first of two tough ones I should have won. 

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5): (LOSS)  This one makes me puke a little just thinking about it. The Hawks didn’t have 100 yards of offense midway through the 4th quarter. Wallace had about 30 yards passing and Julius Jones was at about 12 yards – both were leading their teams in the respective categories. But the Bucs were fine with “just winning” and that thinking got me a loss as the Bucs won by 10. DAMN IT!!! 

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) @ Washington Redskins: (WINNER) The Browns were overrated to start the season and the Redskins were definitely underrated. That being said, I don’t think the current difference between these two teams is more than a touchdown.” This game was gross and at one point the Derek Anderson was 4 of 16 passing. Anderson had completed just as many passes as Braylon Edwards had dropped. Still, the Browns cover and I win. Weird. 

Denver Broncos (+3) @ New England Patriots: (LOSS) I was wrong – as it turned out, some early turnovers killed anything the Broncos tried to build up and Sammy Morris showed how really bad the Broncos front 7 is. Do you think they’ll be better or worse without Champ and Boss Bailey? Sign me up for any runner playing them from here on out. And the Pats – are they going to start being more consistent or is it coin flipping time?

All that leaves me at .500 for the week – piss. I’ll take it like a man.