Tennessee Titans vs Seattle Seahawks 03/01/2010 Prediction

Oh how the Hawks have fallen. Sheesh, I think Jim Mora should get an extension based on the damage he’s done. If he could turn these Hawks into the mush pile of confidence lacking maroons that they are playing like right now, well he can surely turn wine back into water, right? I mean, the guy has thrown multiple people under buses, has gotten very little out of a couple of the most talented guys in the league, and hasn’t changed the risk free offense that has been here for years. So, basically they aren’t consistent at all and they still don’t take any big chances – awesome. The best of no worlds.

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But that’s not what’s important here, a little speedster by the name of Chris Johnson is the man of the day, and I have to be honest, I’m more excited to watch this game than any one of the “important playoff implication games”. Call me a fantasy football junky if you want, but I’m here to tell you, my interest in this game has no fantasy implications. Nope, I just like to see history.

Chris Johnson has a chance to rush for 2000 yards on the season, and even more amazingly, pass up Marshall Faulk’s all time single season yards from scrimmage record. That’s pretty cool. See, every year some teams go to the playoffs and some teams don’t. Some teams step up this time of year and some teams just pee down their collective legs – but that stuff always happens. What Chris Johnson is going to do in Seattle, well that will be the first time anybody’s ever done that – and that’s why I’m excited to see it. Do work Chris!

Tennessee Titans (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks

Expert NFL Picks: Washington Redskins vs San Diego Chargers

These are the guys I don’t think will be playing any longer than one quarter for the Chargers this weekend…. Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Kris Dielman, Nick Hardwick, Marcus McNeil, Shaun Phillips, Shawne Merriman, Stephen Cooper, Luis Castillo, Antonio Cromartie, Eric Weddle, and more… That’s right, I basically just listed about every single starter the Chargers have, and the guys I missed, I only missed out of love. Or I couldn’t think of them. Sorry fellas.

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What do all those names listed together actually add up to? Well, I’m thinking they add up to Jim Zorn’s last win as a head coach of an NFL football team. I hope the guy gets another gig somewhere else, but he doesn’t strike me as the head coach type, and he already got his chance and didn’t make the most of an expensive roster. But what matters here is I’m predicting a Redskins win.

Washington will feed the ball to Quentin Ganther a lot, and I think he’ll have a big day against a Chargers defense that is getting ready for their bye week – you have to rest before a bye week, it’s important don’t you know. The Chargers are definitely the better team, but you just can’t care about that kind of stuff in the final week of the season. An entire team of #2 seeded Chargers are going to be doing more cheer leading than playing on Sunday in San Diego, and the Redskins will get the W.

Washington Redskins (+4) @ San Diego Chargers

Baltimore Ravens vs Oakland Raiders NFL Week 17 Pick

You know what’s interesting about this entire situation? Just gander back at last year’s yarn pile and you’ll find the reason Tom Cable still has a job. And it could happen again this year. Yes, you may have forgotten, but last year the Raiders won their final two games, against Houston and then a huge upset win over a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that needed only to win to see the playoffs. Amazing. This year, the Raiders have yet another chance to do it again.

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After just three wins in the first 13 games, the Raiders try to finish the season 2-1 with two crushing wins over playoff hopefuls. Like last year, all their opponent has to do to see the post-season is win. Can Oakland do the dirty two seasons in a row? Tom Cable can only hope.

But then again, what is he really getting? He gets to wear strings and a big lying nose and grant Al Davis’s wishes. Sounds like my worst freaking nightmare. But the Raiders have played well lately under Cable, and give the guy a break, this team makes absolutely terrible roster decisions, drafts the wrong guy as if that’s the goal, and pays old receivers with bad kness 50 million bones to hardly even see the field.

What’s even more important, the Ravens are a terrible match-up for the Raiders. Defensively, the Ravens are good at stopping the only think Oakland does even reasonably well. Offensively, the Ravens do their best work where the Raiders can’t seem to stop anyone. Bingo was his name o.

Balitmore Ravens (-10) @ Oakland Raiders

College Bowl Games Picks, Predictions & Previews 02/01/2010

I didn’t ace Friday’s New Years’ games, going 2-3 with a couple losses in games I took the favorite (West Virginia and Oregon) but I look to fight back in Saturday’s lesser known bowl games. No highly ranked Top 10 match-ups here, oh no, the BCS takes a break from “blessing us” with their handy work, and we get to see unranked foes go at it, lower ranked teams try to beat up on unranked opponents, and probably some really good football. Don’t get it twisted, highly touted games rarely live up to the billing while these small bowl games often go big. Here’s some small write-ups for Saturday’s games.

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Northern Illinois Huskies (+7) @ South Florida Bulls (International Bowl): The Huskies won 4 of their last 6 to become bowl eligible, at one point winning 4 in a row before losing their final two games to end the season (both against bowling teams, Central Michigan and Ohio). South Florida lost 5 of their last 7 after a 5 game winning streak to open the season. They didn’t lose to bad teams by any means, but that doesn’t mean they played like a dream either. Rutgers spanked them 31-0, but they did beat West Virginia. This is a tougher game than people are giving credit, and the 7 points are something I expect to come in handy.

Connecticut Huskies @ South Carolina Gamecocks (-4.5) (AT&T Cotton Bowl): I really like the Huskies, have been pulling hard for them all season long, and will be rooting for them to win again here – but that doesn’t keep me from using my brain and seeing a very small chance of that happening. The Gamecocks are too tough defensively, and with all that time leading up to this game, I think the Ol’ Ball Coach will have a nice plan of attack on tap.

Mississippi Rebels (-3) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (PAPAJOHNS.com Bowl): I haven’t been a big fan of Mississippi, and watching them play at times this season has been painful – but they turned the season around a bit and have looked semi-successful toward the end of the season. They have some great players, and a RB that can dominate a game. I think they take care of the Cowboys.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ East Carolina Pirates (+8) (AutoZone Liberty Bowl): East Carolina had a great season, and while they can lay eggs, so can the Razorbacks. Arkansas can play great and play like pee, and something tells me a 4 week wait to play the East Carolina Pirates won’t have them rolling with excitement. East Carolina won 6 of their last 7 including 4 in a row to end the season. I think they keep on that hot streak and stick with the Razorbacks.

Michigan State Spartans @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7) (Valero Alamo Bowl): I know there’s been some crazy ish going down amongst these two teams, and a lot of players are probably really grateful a game is just around the corner so they can play football and quit talking about off-the-field problems. But I actually think Michigan State’s problems greatly out-weigh Texas Tech’s dilemma, especially for just one game. Mike Leach’s firing will certainly effect the Red Raider team, but probably next season more than this one day. His staff knows what he wants to do, and they’ll do it. As for the Spartans, loosing a gaggle of important pieces for a suspension because of a fight probably puts them in an impossible spot. The Raiders have almost every single one of their players for this game- that’s important.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs Week 11 Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) @ Kansas City Chiefs Week 11 Pick: Dwayne Bowe’s 4 game suspension for drug use does not help the Chiefs chances of covering against the defending Super Bowl Champs. But that news became public after I made my Steelers pick, and the loss of a wide receiver would rarely send me one way or the other (unless that guy was Randy Moss or Andre Johnson, in other words an enormous portion of an offense’s threat – Bowe hasn’t been that this season).

First of all, this was a very tough one for me to decide. I know Kansas City has played well against tough run-defenses so far this year, starting off the season in a close game against the Ravens (eventually losing 38-24, but it was much closer than the score insists), losing by 11 to the New York Giants, and going to overtime before losing to the Cowboys. Todd Haley’s attack has been decent enough to stay close in most games. They’ve covered 4 of their last 5 games, beating the Redskins and Raiders.

And it’s not like Pittsburgh has come out and slaughtered lesser opponents. They only beat Cleveland by 13 points, Detroit by 8, Tennessee by 3, and they went and lost to the freaking Bears of all teams. THe only time they’ve blown somebody out was when they handled Denver two weeks ago on Monday Night Football, and even that game was 14-10 headed into the 4th quarter.

But Pittsburgh has it in them. They should be able to do anything they want offensively against the Chiefs, and I have a feeling Matt Cassel will be rushed into more than a couple bad throws this Sunday. Advantage Steelers, but just barely. Don’t risk it all on the Champs!

San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers Pick & Preview

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San Francisco 49ers (+7) @ Green Bay Packers: I know the Packers beat the Cowboys last week, making them look downright pathetic on offense, and less than impressive on defense, but 7 points? Against a pretty legit 49ers team that has a pretty solid resume despite being 4-5 on the season? Really? It’s not like Green Bay came out and kicked the Colts around or ousted the Patriots or dominated the Saints – they beat a Dallas team known for pooping the bed on any given week. Big deal.

These Packers have one single win against a team with a winning record, and that just happened to come last week against Dallas. Before that, the Packers best win was Chicago. Yeah. They beat the Bears 21-15 in Green Bay, other than that, what do Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Louis do for you? Can you say 3 of the 4 worst teams in football? (The Raiders inevitably get into any “worst” lists, so I can’t justify leaving them out here). These Packers even lost to Tampa Bay (and thus nobody will go winless this season, how kind of them).

Against teams that really commit to running the ball (like the 49ers), the Packers are 0-3 (Minnesota twice and Cincinnati). Plus, did I mention they were slammed by 10 in Tampa freaking Bay?

The 49ers have lost 4 of their last 5 after starting the season 3-1. But they’ve been blown out one time (Atlanta). They lost to Houston by a field goal, Indy by 4 points, and Tennessee by a touchdown. Their first loss came when Brett Favre threw a 40 yards laser/hail marry touchdown as time expired in Minnesota. The Niners can play with anyone. Even the Packers. San Fran is 3-0-1 ATS on the road, and they’ve had to go up against Arizona, Minnesota, Houston, and Indy in those road games.

Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens Pick & Preview

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Indianapolis Colts (+1) @ Baltimore Ravens Pick & Preview: This spread tells me Vegas thinks these two teams are very close, but Indy is a little better. I agree with that. Peyton Manning is obviously the trump suit in this game, and he’s proven over the years that he’s tough to gamble against.

Despite playing their home games on turf, the Colts have played really well on grass over their last 8 games, going 6-1-1 ATS. However, the Colts haven’t been as good of a cover bet against team’s with winning records, going 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine that qualify. Baltimore has been, consistently, one of the best cover bets in the NFL. They are 19-6 ATS over the last two seasons (including the playoffs). But they haven’t been great against the Colts.

The Colts have covered 5 straight against the Ravens, and they’ve won 6 in a row. Peyton Manning has Baltimore’s number, that’s for sure, not one team has had anywhere close to that much success against one of the best defenses in the league over the lat 10 years. Peyton and company put up 31 points on the Ravens last year, and in 2007 the Colts dumped the Ravens 44-20. Indy has beaten the Ravens in Baltimore three straight times.

The only team with a solid passing attack that Baltimore has beat this year was San Diego – and the Chargers out passed the Ravens by 240 yards. But the Ravens are almost guaranteed to out-rush the Colts, and Baltimore is 5-1 this season when out-rushing their opponent. Who is responsible for that one loss? Tom Brady. Yeah – I’ll take Peyton.

Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings Free Football Pick

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Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) Free Football Pick: I know everyone and their mother is going to be on Minnesota, and I know the line has actually gone down from where it opened despite that fact. That’s usually not a good sign. But how can one justify betting money on the Seahawks right now? I know the value is there for them, they aren’t the Lions, Rams, Raiders, Browns or Bucs and they are getting double digit points – that, in and of itself, has value. But when risk is greater than value it’s either a no bet or a pick for the home favorites. Since no-bets aren’t a part of my daily grind, I’m going to go ahead and go for the latter.

Forget history, because this is Brett Favre’s Vikings team, and this is his first year running this show. Forget that this is Seattle’s biggest underdog spread all year long, because this is the best team the Hawks have played all year long. Also, Seattle has been a big dog (9 points or more) three times this season. What’s their record in those 3 games? 0-3 straight up and against the spread. They were beaten by 11 in Arizona last week despite going up 14-0 in the first quarter. They were beaten by 21 in Dallas. And the Colts slapped them around by 17 in Indy as a 10 point favorite.

Could the Vikings have a let down? Sure. It’s possible. And the Vikings have shown some open alleys in that secondary. But should Seattle be able to give Matt Hasselbeck the time he needs with that offensive line against that defensive front? Should the most physical running back in the NFL have trouble against a defense that really struggles to tackle physical runners? Should Brett Favre give the Hawks a pity win like he gave Michael Strahan a pity sack back in the day? That answer is NO! To all those questions.

Washington Redskins vs Dallas Cowboys Football Pick

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Washington Redskins (+12) @ Dallas Cowboys Football Pick: Wow, you know a line is off when 53% of the public is taking everyone’s most disappointing team of the season to cover against the Dallas Cowboys – America’s team – winners of 4 of their last 5 including big Ws over Philadelphia and Atlanta. Right? I wasn’t sure where this line would go when I picked it up earlier in the week, but I sure saw a lot of value in the Washington Redskins, and that’s not something I catch myself seeing too often.

Despite all the Redskins’ failures, they’ve played in their fair share of close games this season. Sure, everyone has thrown someone in Redskin garb under the bus at some point this season, and nobody has more tire marks, foot prints, and ripped threads than head coach, Jim Zorn, but the Skins haven’t been as terrible as many think. They’ve lost by more than 10 points once all year. Once. And they haven’t played a tomato-can exclusive schedule (the Giants, Panthers, Eagles, Falcons, and Broncos are all on there), and only the Falcons beat the Skins by more than 10. Besides the Eagles and Falcons, nobody else has beaten Washington by double digits.

Six times so far this season, the Redskins have allowed 20 points or less, and the offense hasn’t done the defense any favors. Just imagine how good the Redskins D really is considering how much they have to be on the field. With the Cowboys line dinged up and Dallas coming off a stinker, I like this game to stay with-in double digits.

Arizona Cardinals vs St. Louis Rams NFL Free Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (-8.5) @ St. Louis Rams NFL Free Pick: The Rams have been very good lately running the ball. Steven Jackson has seemingly stacked each and every one of his teammates on his bulky shoulders, and carried them to some solid performances over the last couple weeks.

After carrying the entire load and getting the Rams their first win of the season two weeks ago in Detroit (probably counts as a half win), the entire Rams team, not just Steven Jackson (though he performed like a beast) took it to the Saints last Sunday. While they were never ahead in the game, it was tied at 14 at the half. And in the end, the Rams were driving to get that go-ahead score they needed to end the Saints run at undefeated. This is the Rams we’re talking about, so obviously it didn’t work, but there’s reason to believe that Steve Spagnola could be turning this franchise around. Even Marc Bulger’s ghost got into the act, throwing for 298 yards and 2 touchdowns as he moved the team down the field. Of course, Jackson’s 131 rushing yards, 9 catches for 45 yards, and 1 rushing touchdown helped too.

But the Cardinals are stout against the run. They’ve played awesome football on the road this season. This is Kurt Warner going up against the team that gave up on him, replacing him with a clown name Marc Bulger, despite Warner’s MVP’s and NFL Championship Trophy. Kurt’s the kind of guy his teammates rally around, and you can bet he’ll be demanding perfection this week. I think Beanie Wells has another big game for the Cardinals, and that will make all the difference.