Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14): Taking the Steelers as a double digit favorite is always scary, and especially this season considering they haven’t beaten anybody by that kind of margin, even allowing a late touchdown last week to the Lions to win by just 8 – and yes, I’m still a little bitter about that. But this match-up begs me to take the Steel City, and I won’t fight it. If you’ve read my picks, you know I love picking against a team that won last week and probably should have lost. When your quarterback goes 2-17 you should lose. When it’s against a defensive secondary that had 3 of 4 starters out with injury, you should really lose. When the most your entire team can score is two field goals, in a game where you were handed two turnovers deep in the opponents zone – you should definitely lose. But the Browns defied reality, beat logic, and tricked reason – and they got the win last week. The Steelers can run the ball, haven been doing it effectively since Rashard Mendenhall took over starting duties, and they can throw the ball very effectively as well. The Browns offense is brutal and their defense is rated at the bottom of the league in both passing and rushing. What can I say, this is the safest survivor pick this week, two touchdowns is a lot, but I’m taking the Steelers.
Tag Archives: Free Week 6 Picks
Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Panthers have actually been a better road team than a home team over the years, especially when it comes to covering. Another thing begging me to bet the Bucs, Carolina should have lost last week. They were down 17-2 midway through the 3rd quarter. Now, they aren’t often a road favorite, and historically the Panthers aren’t a great favorite bet, but all things are going out the window this week because I don’t see Carolina losing to the Bucs to go 1-4. Carolina isn’t one of the bottom 5 teams in football, and the Bucs are. I thought the Bucs would be decent this year, but the re-build is going to be tough, and Carolina has enough to get it done. Defensively, they’ve actually been solid, but the offense has put them in absolutely no place to succeed. With Tampa Bay struggling to stop the run, I think DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have great weeks leading their team to victory. Steve Smith has a knack for getting into the end-zone against this division rival, and I expect him to make a visit in Week 6. A tough pick for me, my rules tell me Bucs, my mind tells me Carolina – you know what they say, mind over gambling on the Bucs!
Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Redskins NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (+7) @ Washington Redskins: This is a real excitement filled contest! For the fifth time this season (which makes that every single week so far) the Redskins are going up against an opponent without a win. Yes, despite being 2-3 on the season, 1-3-1 ATS, the Redskins opponents have been winless prior to meeting the Skins. Lucky for opposing teams, the Redskins have given opponents their first win of the season 3 times. They’ve managed to play close games, though, another reason to take the Chiefs this week in D.C. Another reason to take the Chiefs? They always cover against Washington, at least in the last 5 match-ups they have. What else? I like what I saw from Matt Cassel last week, and from the looks of it he’s getting a little more comfortable with his new offense. KC has played tough with some good teams this year, despite losing by double digits to both Baltimore and New York, they played solid football in both games. They’re winless so far, but if it’s up to the Redskins, that will change. KC’s secondary and run defense can be exposed, but there’s not much positive coming out of Washington these days, so I’ll just take the Chiefs and that free touchdown. This brings the question, should Washington be favored by a touchdown against anyone? I think not.
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers NFL Pick
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-13): The Packers coming off a bye week preparing for a Lions team that has a list of injured players you couldn’t count using just your fingers (who can count past their fingers these days anyway?) – It’s hard not to be all gung-ho about the Packers chances at winning by a couple touchdowns. But the Lions have been decent in some games this season. They got kicked around by the Saints in Week 1, sure, but they fought and battled tough in their last 4 games, giving the Vikings, Redskins, Bears, and Steelers all they could handle (in fact, they gave the Redskins more than they could handle). You look at the scores, and Pittsburgh was the first time the Lions lost by less than double digits this season, and even that took a late touchdown strike from Daunte Culpepper. But the injuries are mounting, and while I don’t like going against a double digit dog, especially one that plays better on the road, it’s too hard to look past the 4 starting defensive players that are questionable, the best player on their team is also questionable (Calvin Johnson), and their running game hasn’t been good against anybody so far this season. What does that tell me? If I’m leaning one way, I’m taking the Packers coming off a bye week.
Baltimore Ravens vs Minnesota Vikings Football Pick
Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings: This is one of the biggest games of the week, two teams that have played extremely well to start the season. The Ravens come in 3-2 (after losing in the final seconds to the Bengals a week after losing to the Patriots in New England) while Minnesota has walked through a relatively weak schedule all the way to 5-0 (Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Louis hardly belong in the NFL). And yes, the Brett Favre experiment seems to be working just fine. The decent teams Minnesota has faced kept things close, as Brett Favre needed his miracle toss with a second left to beat the 49ers, and Green Bay’s late rally fell short despite shutting down Adrian Peterson and that feared Viking rushing attack. The Ravens haven’t been as stingy on defense, and Joe Flacco has struggled a bit in the last two contests, but you’d have to say Baltimore is easily the Vikings’ toughest task yet. With that being what it is, I’m taking the Ravens here. The 49ers and Ravens are very similar teams, the difference being Baltimore should be healthier than San Fran was in their game against the Vikings. The 49ers should have won that game, and Baltimore should win this game. We’ll see if Should turns into a win this time.