Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans Free Pick & Preview: Let me start by saying I think these two teams are way more similar than their records suggest. One is 10-0, the other 5-5, yet I think the Colts are just 3-7 points better than the Texans – but 3 points, and the Peyton Manning factor, that has me on the Colts side once again. I know this Colts team isn’t 10-0 worthy, they’ve needed some help along the way – but they are 10-0, and if I can’t find a better reason than “they should probably lose one of these days, why not this week” then I’m just going to go ahead and keep betting them if the spread isn’t too grand. 3 is never too much….
The Colts/Texans game has been a close affair in 5 of the last 6 meetings – but the Colts have won the last 5. Indy is 6-3-1 ATS this year, and has basically dominated against the spread while traveling – 5-0 ATS on the road this season. The Texans haven’t been great at home, and with even less of a commitment to the run (and the ball in Steve Slaton’s hands less than earlier this year) I don’t think the Texans will take advantage of that leaky Colts run D.
I think this game is going to come right down to it, maybe even the Colts down 3 with a couple minutes left in the game – but even then, I think I’d buck the odds and go with Peyton – the guy has IT.