Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs Week 11 Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) @ Kansas City Chiefs Week 11 Pick: Dwayne Bowe’s 4 game suspension for drug use does not help the Chiefs chances of covering against the defending Super Bowl Champs. But that news became public after I made my Steelers pick, and the loss of a wide receiver would rarely send me one way or the other (unless that guy was Randy Moss or Andre Johnson, in other words an enormous portion of an offense’s threat – Bowe hasn’t been that this season).

First of all, this was a very tough one for me to decide. I know Kansas City has played well against tough run-defenses so far this year, starting off the season in a close game against the Ravens (eventually losing 38-24, but it was much closer than the score insists), losing by 11 to the New York Giants, and going to overtime before losing to the Cowboys. Todd Haley’s attack has been decent enough to stay close in most games. They’ve covered 4 of their last 5 games, beating the Redskins and Raiders.

And it’s not like Pittsburgh has come out and slaughtered lesser opponents. They only beat Cleveland by 13 points, Detroit by 8, Tennessee by 3, and they went and lost to the freaking Bears of all teams. THe only time they’ve blown somebody out was when they handled Denver two weeks ago on Monday Night Football, and even that game was 14-10 headed into the 4th quarter.

But Pittsburgh has it in them. They should be able to do anything they want offensively against the Chiefs, and I have a feeling Matt Cassel will be rushed into more than a couple bad throws this Sunday. Advantage Steelers, but just barely. Don’t risk it all on the Champs!

San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers Pick & Preview

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San Francisco 49ers (+7) @ Green Bay Packers: I know the Packers beat the Cowboys last week, making them look downright pathetic on offense, and less than impressive on defense, but 7 points? Against a pretty legit 49ers team that has a pretty solid resume despite being 4-5 on the season? Really? It’s not like Green Bay came out and kicked the Colts around or ousted the Patriots or dominated the Saints – they beat a Dallas team known for pooping the bed on any given week. Big deal.

These Packers have one single win against a team with a winning record, and that just happened to come last week against Dallas. Before that, the Packers best win was Chicago. Yeah. They beat the Bears 21-15 in Green Bay, other than that, what do Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Louis do for you? Can you say 3 of the 4 worst teams in football? (The Raiders inevitably get into any “worst” lists, so I can’t justify leaving them out here). These Packers even lost to Tampa Bay (and thus nobody will go winless this season, how kind of them).

Against teams that really commit to running the ball (like the 49ers), the Packers are 0-3 (Minnesota twice and Cincinnati). Plus, did I mention they were slammed by 10 in Tampa freaking Bay?

The 49ers have lost 4 of their last 5 after starting the season 3-1. But they’ve been blown out one time (Atlanta). They lost to Houston by a field goal, Indy by 4 points, and Tennessee by a touchdown. Their first loss came when Brett Favre threw a 40 yards laser/hail marry touchdown as time expired in Minnesota. The Niners can play with anyone. Even the Packers. San Fran is 3-0-1 ATS on the road, and they’ve had to go up against Arizona, Minnesota, Houston, and Indy in those road games.

Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens Pick & Preview

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Indianapolis Colts (+1) @ Baltimore Ravens Pick & Preview: This spread tells me Vegas thinks these two teams are very close, but Indy is a little better. I agree with that. Peyton Manning is obviously the trump suit in this game, and he’s proven over the years that he’s tough to gamble against.

Despite playing their home games on turf, the Colts have played really well on grass over their last 8 games, going 6-1-1 ATS. However, the Colts haven’t been as good of a cover bet against team’s with winning records, going 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine that qualify. Baltimore has been, consistently, one of the best cover bets in the NFL. They are 19-6 ATS over the last two seasons (including the playoffs). But they haven’t been great against the Colts.

The Colts have covered 5 straight against the Ravens, and they’ve won 6 in a row. Peyton Manning has Baltimore’s number, that’s for sure, not one team has had anywhere close to that much success against one of the best defenses in the league over the lat 10 years. Peyton and company put up 31 points on the Ravens last year, and in 2007 the Colts dumped the Ravens 44-20. Indy has beaten the Ravens in Baltimore three straight times.

The only team with a solid passing attack that Baltimore has beat this year was San Diego – and the Chargers out passed the Ravens by 240 yards. But the Ravens are almost guaranteed to out-rush the Colts, and Baltimore is 5-1 this season when out-rushing their opponent. Who is responsible for that one loss? Tom Brady. Yeah – I’ll take Peyton.

Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings Free Football Pick

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Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) Free Football Pick: I know everyone and their mother is going to be on Minnesota, and I know the line has actually gone down from where it opened despite that fact. That’s usually not a good sign. But how can one justify betting money on the Seahawks right now? I know the value is there for them, they aren’t the Lions, Rams, Raiders, Browns or Bucs and they are getting double digit points – that, in and of itself, has value. But when risk is greater than value it’s either a no bet or a pick for the home favorites. Since no-bets aren’t a part of my daily grind, I’m going to go ahead and go for the latter.

Forget history, because this is Brett Favre’s Vikings team, and this is his first year running this show. Forget that this is Seattle’s biggest underdog spread all year long, because this is the best team the Hawks have played all year long. Also, Seattle has been a big dog (9 points or more) three times this season. What’s their record in those 3 games? 0-3 straight up and against the spread. They were beaten by 11 in Arizona last week despite going up 14-0 in the first quarter. They were beaten by 21 in Dallas. And the Colts slapped them around by 17 in Indy as a 10 point favorite.

Could the Vikings have a let down? Sure. It’s possible. And the Vikings have shown some open alleys in that secondary. But should Seattle be able to give Matt Hasselbeck the time he needs with that offensive line against that defensive front? Should the most physical running back in the NFL have trouble against a defense that really struggles to tackle physical runners? Should Brett Favre give the Hawks a pity win like he gave Michael Strahan a pity sack back in the day? That answer is NO! To all those questions.

Washington Redskins vs Dallas Cowboys Football Pick

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Washington Redskins (+12) @ Dallas Cowboys Football Pick: Wow, you know a line is off when 53% of the public is taking everyone’s most disappointing team of the season to cover against the Dallas Cowboys – America’s team – winners of 4 of their last 5 including big Ws over Philadelphia and Atlanta. Right? I wasn’t sure where this line would go when I picked it up earlier in the week, but I sure saw a lot of value in the Washington Redskins, and that’s not something I catch myself seeing too often.

Despite all the Redskins’ failures, they’ve played in their fair share of close games this season. Sure, everyone has thrown someone in Redskin garb under the bus at some point this season, and nobody has more tire marks, foot prints, and ripped threads than head coach, Jim Zorn, but the Skins haven’t been as terrible as many think. They’ve lost by more than 10 points once all year. Once. And they haven’t played a tomato-can exclusive schedule (the Giants, Panthers, Eagles, Falcons, and Broncos are all on there), and only the Falcons beat the Skins by more than 10. Besides the Eagles and Falcons, nobody else has beaten Washington by double digits.

Six times so far this season, the Redskins have allowed 20 points or less, and the offense hasn’t done the defense any favors. Just imagine how good the Redskins D really is considering how much they have to be on the field. With the Cowboys line dinged up and Dallas coming off a stinker, I like this game to stay with-in double digits.

Arizona Cardinals vs St. Louis Rams NFL Free Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (-8.5) @ St. Louis Rams NFL Free Pick: The Rams have been very good lately running the ball. Steven Jackson has seemingly stacked each and every one of his teammates on his bulky shoulders, and carried them to some solid performances over the last couple weeks.

After carrying the entire load and getting the Rams their first win of the season two weeks ago in Detroit (probably counts as a half win), the entire Rams team, not just Steven Jackson (though he performed like a beast) took it to the Saints last Sunday. While they were never ahead in the game, it was tied at 14 at the half. And in the end, the Rams were driving to get that go-ahead score they needed to end the Saints run at undefeated. This is the Rams we’re talking about, so obviously it didn’t work, but there’s reason to believe that Steve Spagnola could be turning this franchise around. Even Marc Bulger’s ghost got into the act, throwing for 298 yards and 2 touchdowns as he moved the team down the field. Of course, Jackson’s 131 rushing yards, 9 catches for 45 yards, and 1 rushing touchdown helped too.

But the Cardinals are stout against the run. They’ve played awesome football on the road this season. This is Kurt Warner going up against the team that gave up on him, replacing him with a clown name Marc Bulger, despite Warner’s MVP’s and NFL Championship Trophy. Kurt’s the kind of guy his teammates rally around, and you can bet he’ll be demanding perfection this week. I think Beanie Wells has another big game for the Cardinals, and that will make all the difference.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (-11) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Pick: The Saints haven’t played well over the last few weeks, the Buccaneers have been pretty solid considering how pathetic they were to start the season. Those two things have to even out, I mean, the Saints are really good and the Bucs aren’t. Josh Freeman can’t be as polished as he’s looked in his first two games starting, and Drew Brees has to torch a Bucs secondary that hasn’t been beaten much in the past couple games.

Teams with solid pass blocking and good quarterbacks have destroyed the Bucs this year. New England, Philadelphia, the Giants, and Dallas all beat the Bucs by 13 ore more points. But the Bucs have been good since Josh Freeman took over, and the scores have reflected that. After beating the Packers in what seemed like a fluke, the Bucs almost put another big upset together, falling just short of beating the Dolphins in Miami.

But like I said above, that kind of stuff has to fall off one of these weeks. And while the Saints have managed to stay undefeated despite less than stellar performances over the last 3 weeks, you’d think their close calls in 4 straight would keep them focused enough against a team like Tampa Bay.

It’s not the Saints offense that gets me most excited about New Orleans chances at covering this spread, but the way their defense can pick on arrant passes. The Bucs don’t have a dominate rushing attack like the last 4 teams New Orleans has struggled with, I think that’s the main reason I’m taking the Saints here.

New York Jets vs New England Patriots Pick & Preview

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New York Jets (+11) @ New England Patriots Pick & Preview: I’m a firm believer that you don’t give a good team double digits and cover the spread very often. I know that if anyone can do it, it’s a pissed off Patriots team that is looking to take the heat of their coach’s back, a team that saw the Jets out-play, out-work, and out-physical them earlier in the year when New York upset the Pats. But just because I know the Patriots have it in them doesn’t mean I’m going to bet the way of the Pats – the value is too good on New York, and it’s not like their heads are swollen from playing too good over the last few weeks. After coming back to reality after a hot start, I know the Jets will be fully prepared for what New England has to offer this Sunday Afternoon.

First and foremost, the Jets have a cat that matches up pretty well with Randy Moss, that, in and of itself, is something most teams can only dream about. Darrelle Revis was tough on Randy in the first game, and while I don’t expect Moss to struggle to make plays as much this time around, I do expect him to be held under his season averages.

Next, the Jets have a solid offensive line and a rushing attack that eats clock and should force the Patriots to pay extra attention to the run. I think Mark Sanchez, though he’s struggled at times, has the big game flare in his blood, and he’ll make some nice plays to keep this one close. 11 is too many. I’ll take them points!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins Point Spread

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5) Point Spread: The Dolphins are probably the best team in the NFL that has a losing record. I think they’re a little better than San Francisco and basically better at everything that the Titans do well. So they’re better than them too. Miami has had one of the tougher schedules in all of football, their 5 losses have come against Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego, New Orleans, and New England. They’ve beaten the Jets twice, and Buffalo – not too exciting in the win column, but tough losses. And they’ve played close with everyone. They’ve been in every single game in the 4th quarter. They have been unlucky, to say the least.

But now the easier part starts, you have Tampa Bay coming down for a nice in-state match-up against an NFC basement dweller. There’s probably very few times I’d take the Dolphins -9.5, but this is a great situation for that. If there’s ever a time, it’s now. Miami has terrorized mediocre rush defenses, the Bucs can’t even claim to be that good. The Bucs are coming off a win, that will probably not happen again this season. The Dolphins need this one really bad if there’s any hope left in finding the playoffs. The Buc’s rookie QB, Josh Freeman, has major hype coming into this game because of his 3 TDs in his first pro start – but he only completely 14 of 31 passes against the Packers – that accuracy (or lack of) will hurt him against a defense like Miami’s.

And then you have Tampa, every “good” team they’ve played this season has crushed them. New England, Philly, the Giants, and the Cowboys all won by 13 points or more. The Dolphins could run the Wildcat exclusively and beat the Bucs by 10. Give Henne the week off! Give Ronnie 30 carries….

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos Football Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (+3): Monday Night football must have known something that most of us did not. After all the off-season turmoil in Denver, to think that a Steelers/Broncos game would be a good match-up in Week 9 of the NFL season seemed crazy when the MNF schedule came out. Yet here we are, and Pittsburgh isn’t the team with the best record – that belongs to 6-1 Denver. Not only has Denver done well straight up, but they’re 6-1 ATS this season as well. And being an underdog isn’t a new thing for the Broncos, so far this season they’ve been favored just twice, against Cleveland and Oakland.

Denver is coming off a tough loss to the Ravens last week, getting pretty much blown out in the second half after going into halftime down 6-0. The Steelers are coming off a bye week right after a 4 game winning streak, including a 10 point win over Minnesota in Pittsburgh. After going 1-2 to start the season, and looking very mediocre in the process, Pittsburgh has picked it up of late, making big plays on defense and continuing to throw the ball early and often.

Denver has beaten Pittsburgh 3 of the last 4 times these two have met. But that doesn’t mean much normally, and now that these two teams have relatively young coaches with different systems and players, that history means even less. Maybe last season’s 33-10 win over New England is a better judge of past accomplishments. It was Josh McDaniels’ offense that couldn’t do much against Pittsburgh’s defense.

But lets talk about this season. The Steelers are 2-5 ATS and have not been able to put the nail in the coffin despite being up early in most games. They have struggled to close, and thus haven’t really met expectations in the margin of victory. Denver has played tough against everyone, their secondary is very good, and they bring lots of pressure to opposing passers. The Steelers might find it tough to block the Broncos pass rush, and since Big Ben holds the ball a little longer than most, that could make for some big plays for the Broncos defense. Denver shuts down opposing rushing attacks, so the weight of the world will go on Ben’s passing skills. That’s a recipe for failing to cover. So I’ll take the Broncos.