Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions NFL Week 17 Pick

Welcome to absolutely meaningless football, or at least I think it is. It’d be great for the Lions to win this final game, but then again, it might keep Lovie Smith employed if the Bears come out victorious against Detroit’s hapless Lions. So maybe there is something to fight for after all… Hmm…. Something to fight for or not, it’s about time somebody figured out the Bears are bad – only a 3 point favorite in Detroit after beating up on the Vikings- something has to be trying to trick us. But I still have to go with the public here and ride the Bears to victory.

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Chicago might be bad, a lot worse than people expected, but they aren’t Lions’ bad. The books are expecting a big let-down after Monday Night’s offensive explosion against Minnesota, and I agree, there will be some sort of let-down. But a let-down against the Lions still leaves room for some error and some victory. Jay Cutler looked as comfortable as he’s been all season when throwing balls to Devin Aromashadu to win the game last week. Well, his favorite young receiver is back, and his running game will be able to see some success on Sunday as well.
A combination of those things and the reality that this is the Lions, playing in Detroit where they are often at their worst, during a completely lost season – has me going with Da Bears.

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Monday Night Football Pick

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Monday Night Football Pick: The Vikings have played more close games than you’d think, and they haven’t been playing thier best football lately, losing two of three including an embarrassing loss in Carolina to the Panthers. There’s been some problems reported with Brett Favre and head coach Brad Childress, with questions as to who’s in charge. Now that we have that all cleared up, and everyone knows that Brett’s in charge, I think the Vikings will turn it around in Week 16.

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More important that what the Vikings will be doing is the team they are going to be playing. And I know it’s been a disappointing year for Carolina, and the Panthers haven’t played well, but it’s tough to match up with how poorly the Bears have fared after all the pre-season hype.

Who looks like the dummy now folks? All that talk about how stupid Josh McDaniels was for trading away Jay Cutler for a bunch of picks and Kyle Orton seems like rubbish now, doesn’t it? Kyle and the Broncos are on the verge of a playoff birth while Jay and the Bears are a couple wins away from, just 7 freaking wins. That’s right, Chicago is guaranteed a losing season, and lately, they’ve been playing like the bottom tier in the NFL.

Just last week, the Bears made the Ravens offense look like the greatest show on turf, and they’ve lost 6 of 7 to boot. Chicago is just a bad football team, and there’s not much more to say about it. Minnesota better get it right here, if not now than never.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Chicago Bears

Week 15 NFL Picks: Chicago Bears vs Baltimore Ravens

Week 15 NFL Picks: Chicago Bears vs Baltimore Ravens: Listen, I, as much as anyone, think the Chicago Bears are garbage – but right now you can get them anywhere from 11 to 12 point underdogs, and this team just hasn’t lost many games by a margin that large. What else? The Baltimore Ravens put up 48 points last week and still only average 24.5 points per game. The Bears have also lost everybody money this year, at least everybody backing them, they are just 4-9 ATS on the season, 5-8 overall. That last record will get worse, that first one will get better.

The Bears have lost 3 games by double digits, Arizona, Minnesota, and Cincinnati (in the Bengals biggest offensive performance of the season). All of those teams have been better than the Ravens this season. But all three have a pretty tough run defense, and if that commonality is the key, the Bears could have a tough time, because you know the Ravens can stop the run.

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But what has me on the Bears side is their normally close ball games, and their ability to pick on secondaries that struggle in pass defense. The Bengals aren’t bad, but their secondary can surely be exploited. The Bears have some very fast receivers, and Jay Cutler has one of the best arms in the NFL. Now I know the Ravens will get the better side of a couple Jay Cutler passes, and I know the Bears defense isn’t what it used to be, so we’re just going to call this a whim. I’m taking Chicago to cover here.

Chicago Bears (+10) @ Baltimore Ravens:

Papas Picks: NFL Week 14 Underdog Predictions

Alright, I’ve gone 4-1 twice in the last 3 weeks – but the week I didn’t run into 4-1 was a tough one to stomach. I guess that’s the way with underdogs, when the ball doesn’t bounce your way, you look like a dope. I looked pretty solid last week as two of my unpopular dogs won outright, the Dolphins and Raiders. I was pretty stunned the Steelers fell at home to the Raiders, but I was pretty happy looking at 15.5 points against a team that hadn’t won big all year. It’s too bad I never write this article quick enough for Thursday games, because I would have loved getting another underdog win over the Steelers… This week, I have a couple more Dogs that look like pedigree models with all there glorious points – here are this week’s picks.

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Washigton Redskins @ Oakland Raiders (+1): The Redskins find ways to lose, really, they are very good at it. The Raiders have turned it around a bit, and now that they can complete a simple pass to a wide open receiver, they aren’t nearly as bad as before. I like them to win their 3rd in 4 games – crazy.

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: The Chargers are better than the Cowboys, and Dallas always hits a wall and loses important games late. If they lose here, they have are guaranteed to be 2nd place in the NFC East – that means it’s a big game – that means trouble for Big D.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+3.5): The Bears are 4-2 at home this year – so that’s what I have going for me here. They’ve played much worse than they are, and the Packers have been on a streak of really impressive games – I think those things are bound to turn around in one cold afternoon in Chicago.

Detroit Lions (+14) @ Baltimore Ravens: Oh the Ravens and their impotent offense, I mean un-potent, well, what ever it is, it’s not producing many hits lately. With Daunte starting (for a guy with really small hands, I still think he’s pretty good, but I might be living in his fantasy dominating past) I think the Lions have a good chance to put up a few touchdowns through the air, the kid has always thrown the deep ball well. That will be enough to cover.

Seattle Seahawks (+7) @ Houston Texans: I know the Hawks suck on the road, but this team is finally getting healthy, and there’s nothing like a team finally getting healthy when all the other teams are finally starting to lose some players. Houston has struggled lately, definitely misses having one of their most dynamic players in the backfield, and is just 2-4 on the road this season. Oh yeah, and there’s rumbling that their coach might get the axe – that’s never good. One more thing, they’ve lost 4 straight.

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears NFL Free Pick

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Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears NFL Free Pick: The Bears are bad, folks, really. If their numerous losses don’t prove that to you, go ahead and look at their wins. Add up every single one of their wins, mix them in with a 10-year-old bin of crap in your garage, and see if you can tell the difference between anything after a good shake. You say, Pittsburgh, I say – maybe. But before I admit the Bears have beat one good team, I’ll mention the fact that both Oakland and Kansas City also beat that team. How many teams have that gold nugget on their resume? Right.

So aside from the Steelers, the Packers have taken down powerhouses like Seattle (with Seneca Wallace starting at QB), Cleveland, Detroit, and just last week, they beat the mighty Rams by 8 points at home in Chicago. Nice. Yes, there is nothing impressive about this 5 and 7 team. Not at all.

The Packers, on the other hand, the hand that you didn’t just wipe with because you ran out of toilet paper, are a good team, and don’t look now, but all that youth and excitement is actually getting even better. They’ve drafted some great young players and their switch to a 3-4 is utilizing all of that talent. They have become a run-stuffing dynamo and their coverage in the secondary claims one of the best defensive players in football, Mr. Charles Woodson.

Aaron Rodgers, and even Ryan Grant, should tear up this Bears defense that has had a very tough time stopping potent offenses. I like the Packers by 14-21 points on the road. Help me out Jay, I know you will!

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Chicago Bears

St. Louis Rams vs Chicago Bears NFL Free Pick

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St. Louis Rams vs Chicago Bears NFL Free Pick: I don’t know what I’m up to, maybe I’m just a sicko that can’t help but bet against a bad team as a 10 point favorite, because you know it’s not because I think much of the Rams. I’ve been quoted calling the Rams one of the worst teams in football, but I’ve also seen an improving team, a defense led by a good coach, and a team that seems to be starting to figure it out. Plus, Marc Bulger is out and I’ve always liked anybody else when gambling on games.

The Bears are 4-7 and bad 4-7 at that. The Rams, well they are bad, but like I said, getting better. The Bears aren’t getting better, they have a coach that likely has seen his last season in Chicago – they have a team that doesn’t believe in their high-priced leader, Mr. Jay Cutler, and the one strong part of their offense of last season hasn’t produced at all this year, one Matt Forte and that broken rushing attack. To put their performances into perspective, Marc Bulger’s QB rating of 70.7 is less than four points lower than Cutler’s 74.4. And on a bad team that really only has a running back, Steven Jackson has had a very impressive year while Forte has really struggled.

The Bears haven’t won against the spread in over a month, they’ve won a single game (both SU and ATS) since mid-October. The Rams have won 3 of their last 4 ATS, and they’ve been in four straight games. That combo is enough for me to go with the points.

St. Louis Rams (+10) @ Chicago Bears:

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Week 12 Free Pick

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Chicago Bears (+12) @ Minnesota Vikings Week 12 Pick: I’m biting my lip while making this pick, and it’s not because there’s something good leftover on my mustache. No, I hate making this pick. The Vikings could easily win by 12 points, covering this spread while intercepting and sacking Jay Cutler like it’s their job, and beating up a defensive front that’s had plenty of  trouble stopping the run, all while Brett Favre picks apart a shaky secondary that has their share of struggles. But, after all is considered, I am taking Cutler and those disappointing Bears to come out and fight a little harder than usual, and maybe even upset the Vikes. Here’s why…

The Bears have been their own worst enemy, and one of these days (an already sometimes this year) they will break away from the mistakes and play a game that doesn’t give their opponents great field positions, defensive touchdowns, or anything of that nature. They have played well enough to cover double digits in all but 2 games so far this season, the Cardinals and Bengals – both times they gave up 40+ points. I don’t think this will be one of those games, they are already basically out of the playoff race, and already have very little to play for – that’s a good thing for this team that often presses too much.

With the weight off his back, and a secondary that can get hit for bit plays, I think Jay Cutler has a good day – that alone will be good enough for the Bears to cover. Their second road win of the year? That might be a stretch, but I see this one being close.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears Sunday Night NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (-2) @ Chicago Bears Sunday Night NFL Pick: This Sunday Night Football game is intriguing. Not because either of these teams is living up to their lofty expectations but because both are playing very poorly of late, losing 7 of their last 10 combined. The Eagles have lost 3 of 5 while Chicago is 1-4 since beating Detroit and starting the season 3-1. But there’s a little sexiness in there too, two good quarterbacks, one young – Jay Cutler, one a seasoned veteran – Donovan McNabb, an Eagles team that really needs to start winning if they want to compete for an NFC East title and a Bears team that is basically a loss away from looking forward to next year.

The Eagles are 5-4, both straight up and against the spread. They have lost to Dallas and San Diego in back to back games. Their other two losses were to the Saints and Raiders, of all teams. They’ve beaten the Giants, Redskins, Buccaneers, Chiefs, and Panthers – not necessarily the best wins to signify greatness. The Bears beat the Steelers in Week 2, after that they have wins over Seattle, Detroit, and Cleveland – so neither team has done much against the top level.

But here’s the deal, Philadelphia is a pretty good team – Chicago is a pretty bad team. The Eagles might not run the ball well, but it’s not like Chicago is worth a dime on the ground either. The Bears give away turnovers like non-perishables, and the Eagles can make a team look silly in a hurry. I’ll take the better team.

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 10 2009

If you look hard enough, you’ll see basically two different weeks for my selections this time around. You’ll see my losses (Sunday Morning was tough for me) and my wins (the afternoon and night games brought me right back) – the bottom line is, it wasn’t a great week, but as I’ve done almost every mediocre week this season, I still finished out of the red. In 15 games this week I managed 8-7 and moved 1 more game over .500 for the season. I’m not a big fan of 8-7 weeks, double digit wins is kind of my thing, but when the tough gets tougher, a winning week feels good enough! Here’s how it went down!

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Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5): (WINNER) The 49ers didn’t try too hard to win, but with Jay Cutler throwing them the ball in the red-zone, they didn’t need to. A late field goal put the 49ers up 10-6, and a last minute interception in the end-zone (Jay’s 5th on the night) slammed the door shut on the Bears, giving me a nice cover to start my week.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Carolina Panthers: (Loss) “Okay, I get it, this is obviously a trap game for the public bettor. And I see what Vegas sees in this one, really, I do, and yes, I’m making my Falcons pick anyway. What does Vegas see, you ask? Well, they see a Falcons team that can’t stop the run, has lucked out lately, and hasn’t really played elite football consistently all season long. They are just 1-3 on the road, and that offense that was supposed to dominate this season – they’ve been out-gained in 3 of the last 4 games and their opponents have gained more yardage through the air in 6 of their last 7 – even Jake Delhomme and the Panthers out-passed Matty Ice and the falcons. But despite all this, the hype train is running at full speed.” I hate, hate, hate, hate when I see what Vegas is banking on and I go against it despite my better judgment. I hate even more how much worse 8-7 seems than 9-6. Anyway, tough one for me, I’d like to think it would have been different had Michael Turner continue the 250 yard game pace he was on, but I’ll never know. Dang Vegas! You won this one, but I’ll win the war!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5): (Loss) The Dolphins were out-played by the Bucs. That’s the last thing I thought I’d ever say this year, but it’s true. Luckily, they are the Bucs, and in almost every opportunity they’ll find a way to lose. Well, lucky for the Fins, not as lucky for me, I needed them to “really lose” and 2 points wasn’t enough. I still don’t know how the Bucs stayed this close.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16): (WINNER) Just by the hair on my chinny chin chin – and yes, that’s right, I do keep hair on my chin for situations such as this. Unless I shave soon, I might have to start saying “just by the hair on my necky-neck-neck” – but I’m planning on running into a razor sometime this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-6.5): (Loss) Oh, the Jets can disappoint a guy, that’s for sure. I thought Sanchez had his swag back, but apparently not. The Jets defense just didn’t show up, and the Jaguars somehow limited the Jets rushing attack. I expected neither of those things to happen. That’s how you become wrong, when things just don’t go the way you expected them to go.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (WINNER) This was a huge one for me. The Bengals once again held the Steelers out of the end zone most of the day (well all day this time) and Cincinnati did just enough to pressure Big Ben (and not let him get away from sacks) and despite losing their stud running back, the Bengals just found a way to win. Amazing. Regardless of the outcome, it was easy to see that 7 points was just too much.

New Orleans Saints (-13.5) @ St. Louis Rams: (Loss) Really? The Rams? How can a guy predict this stuff? Will the Rams play well next week too? Will New Orleans play like dump against a bad team? I can’t wait to search for those answers… The Rams were a 2 minute drill touchdown away from upsetting the undefeated Saints, but weird, they just couldn’t get it done when it mattered most.

Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Tennessee Titans: (Loss) Well, I liked this pick heading into the 4th quarter, that’s for sure. Neither team had scored much, it was tied, 7.5 was looking great! Then the Bills did what they do late in games, 24 points were scored in teh quarter, none by the crappy Bills offense (or their team, for that matter) and the final score makes me look like a clown… It was close! I promise! I know you didn’t watch this terrible game, but it was close!!! If you never watch the Titans because they have stunk all year, and last year they weren’t expected to be good so they got no National TV games, you have to tune into Monday Night Football this week – Chris Johnson is some other kind of fast – awesome to watch that guy run!

Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins: (Loss) I don’t know what happened here. Even if Orton goes down, you’d think the Broncos could find some way to beat this Redskins team. But no, Jason Campbell actually looked good throwing the ball at times on Sunday, getting some nice touch on short passes, and using his receivers’ strengths. If he had pocket awareness the Redskins would be decent. Alright, that might be going too far, but defensively, the Redskins stopped the Broncos all day long.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) The Raiders are not as good as Kansas City. Their coaching staff is a question mark, their players are wondering what they hell they did earlier in life to deserve this crap, and their owner uses batteries to make his black heart beat – as for the way the Raiders play football, their offense won’t do them any favors, that’s for sure.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-8.5): (WINNER) Papa Weimer tried to pick against me in this game, what a crazy uncle I’ve enlisted. Didn’t he listen to a word I said? The Cards are a terrible match-up for the Hawks and Seattle fans. As they’ve shown lately.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3): (WINNER) I almost always pick against teams that don’t look or play very good and still win. That was the Cowboys last week against the Eagles, and what do you know, they come out with a dud this time around… Green Bay completely shut down everything the Packers did, and when they did allow a little bust in coverage, they just out-toughed the Cowboys and caused fumbles.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ San Diego Chargers: (Loss)The Eagles have just fallen apart of late, and if they don’t get it together (now without Westbrook) they are going to fall right out of the playoff race (maybe not, there’s only 3 teams in the NFC with 6 wins). Philly needs to find a running game in a hurry, they sure didn’t find one against the Chargers.

New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) Most of the time, when you pick the winner of a football game, you also will win ATS. Especially when it’s not a double digit spread (I’m telling you, do the research and the math, you’ll see the numbers). This was one of those times where that didn’t work out. Many will blame Bill for his 4th down call on the 28, and I have to admit, I wouldn’t have done the same thing – but giving Peyton Manning the ball on about the 25 yard line (with a good punt) with 2 minutes and two timeouts might be a 50-50 chance to win. Getting two yards basically wins you the game. I wouldn’t do it, but I see why he did it. Either way, it looks bad, the Colts came back to win, the Patriots still covered. I won’t lose any sleep over it.

Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (WINNER) This one was eerie at half time when neither team had put up a point. Gross. I think I’d rather watch a quarterback competition between Jon Gruden and Jaws than the crap I watched on Monday Night. But, the Ravens managed a few points in the 3rd quarter and what do you know, one quarter of points was enough to oust the Brownies and show everyone exactly what they I said earlier in the week, This team is bad, and last time the Ravens played them, the Browns were exposed for exactly what they are. A team with no offense, no defense, and a clown in a man suit acting as head coach. Dreamy situation. Yeah, I’ll take Baltimore.”

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers Thursday Night Pick

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Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-3) Thursday Night Pick: Earlier in the week I posted that San Francisco was a tough match-up for the Bears, I’d like to divulge a little more information on that statement. To start with, any game on the road seems to be tough for the Bears. Away from Soldier Field, the Bears are 1-3, straight up and against the spread. Their only win and cover came against the Seahawks minus Matt Hasselbeck and a plethora of other Seahawks starters. And Seattle could have easily won that game, the Bears snuck one out by 6 points.

But that’s just a start, and that has nothing to do with the 49ers. Aside from their Pittsburgh win in week 2, the Bears have only beaten Seattle, Detroit, and Cleveland. Yep. Now, the 49ers have only one good win as well, but San Francisco has played tough against everyone aside from their blowout at the hands of Atlanta 10-45. The 49ers have lost their last 3 by 10 total points, and that was against Houston, Indianapolis, and a Tennessee team playing much better than their 2-6 record insists.

The Bears have played poorly against good teams, San Francisco has played well against everyone. Advantage 49ers. 3 of Chicago’s 4 wins came against teams that didn’t commit to running the ball, teams that don’t eat up the clock and put pressure on the Bears offense to score quickly. Teams that run the ball effectively and eat clock, Atlanta and Cincinnati, well, they made the Bears look bad.

The 49ers have some injury concerns, mainly Joe Staley at OT and Nate Clements, the teams’ best player in the secondary – but they showed over the last couple weeks that they can play well without those guys. When they can run the ball, the 49ers have covered easily – I don’t see them having much trouble running at home against an overrated Bears defense.