Tag Archives: Free Picks Review

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 17 Predictions Revisited

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Well, the final week has come and gone, and definitely left its mark on us. A couple games went exactly how I figured, and I thought I was a genius. The other games had me scratching my head. The Houston Texans came in and beat the Patriots 1st team – as New England basically played their starters throughout the entire game. But it wasn’t by enough, as I finished a half point out of that win. I, of course, thought the Pats would sit their main guys most of the day. Wrong. Some others went well and a couple more went wrong, but in the end I finished 8-7-1, pumping out yet another winning week…

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Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-7) (WINNER) The Colts were playing in the middle of a blizzard, not only the weather, but a guy name Fred Jackson. Keep Fred’s name high on your off-season fantasy rankings, the guy will be the focal point of Buffalo’s offense next season. Just as I suspected, the starters in Buffalo are better than the back-ups in Indy.

New Orleans Saints (+8.5) @ Carolina Panthers (LOSS) I knew I was in trouble when Jonathan Stewart took it to the house before the game even really started. I got lost in the “we’re going to win, we’re the Saints” way of thinking and thought Mark Brunell could do enough. Wrong. The Panthers whooped the Saints.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ Cleveland Browns (LOSS) The Jaguars are unbelievable – how does a head coach of a team in the playoff hunt come into a must win game against a crappy Browns team and get a terrible performance from his team? There’s no excuse for that, I don’t care if you’re Tom freaking Landry, your ace should be jobless for a couple weeks after that garbage. My fault, I didn’t realize how high the Jaguars could turn up the suck.

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions (WINNER) Gotta give it to the Bears, they certainly made it interesting but pulled away when they realized they were playing against the Lions. That about sums it up.

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (-7.5) (LOSS) Oh Bill, don’t you know that every move you have made this year has ultimately back-fired? When you decided to start your best guys and go for the win, you should have flipped the switch, picked tails over heads, gone opposite day psycho on us, I don’t know – but Wes Welker took the brunt of the whole thing. The Patriots lost, by just enough to cover, after they played starters 00% of the game. A mis-read on the playing time thing made it a tough game for a guy.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Miami Dolphins (WINNER) The Steelers were a really tough match-up for the Dolphins, and they were playing with a little more jalapeno on their pepper jack, and came out victorious. But it was close, and it’s possible that if the Dolphins didn’t have quarterback trouble, health-wise, the Fins might have pulled the upset. But Pittsburgh won again, and pulled it out by 6.

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) (WINNER) The Giants had given up. Whew, that one made me sweat. I hope Tom Coughlin gets fired – wait, I don’t hope that really, I’d rather just hate the Giants and get to see them struggle again next season so I can see Tom and Eli have a stupid face competition for one more year.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ St. Louis Rams (WINNER) San Francisco tried to come out and lose, starting with no swagger, no push, no nothing. But the Rams could only put up a field goal during those early quarters, and San Francisco came out in the 3rd quarter and managed to finish the game on a 28-3 run. I wonder what Samari Mike did at half time to elicit that kind of football? Hmm…

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WINNER) The Bucs really improved this season, and it showed in the final week as they pushed the Falcons until the very end, making me realize that the oddsmakers weren’t actually crazy. But it ended right for me in the end as the Falcons won by 10 anyway – haha, books, take that!

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys (LOSS) Wow, the Eagles pulled a Cowboys… They finished the season just like Dallas did last year, but this time the Eagles get the luxury of a second chance – but instead of it being after a 1st round bye and in their house, they get to travel to Dallas next week. Maybe they should have tried this week?

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (-3) (LOSS) The Packers were the team looking like they had something to play for. And maybe that was what got me in the end. Arizona found out that Minnesota won, and they suddenly had nothing to play for. Green Bay came out trying to beat the piss out of the team they will be playing next week, and they certainly did that. But it was against back-ups for much of the game. We’ll see how it goes next week, something tells me the Cardinals will be playing starters…

Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ Denver Broncos (WINNER) The Chiefs won outright, and made me feel really good about saying, “This game has upset written all over it,” among other things. The Chiefs had me looking brilliant as they ran all over the Broncos for the feel good end-of-the-year victory.

Baltimore Ravens (-10) @ Oakland Raiders (LOSS) The Ravens just didn’t push it enough to blowout the Raiders, even though Oakland got a guest appearance from JaMarcus “never cover the spread” Russell, apparently he didn’t play long enough. Oakland was impressive, but the Ravens never looked like they were going to lose despite the close score.

Washington Redskins (+4) @ San Diego Chargers (WINNER) The Redskins were up in the 4th and lost anyway, weird. Even against back-ups, the same stuff continues to happen. I wonder if Mike Shannahan will have that same problem? Either way, the Chargers didn’t win by enough, as the Redskins covered by a point. A big point, too, the win assured me yet another winning week.

Tennessee Titans (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (Push) The Titans came out to get Chris Johnson as many touches as he could and get some records or hit some yardage milestones. Well, for the first time this year, the Hawks came and executed a play pretty well. They wanted to make life as tough as possible for Chris, and they hit him hard and often. Johnson still became the leading Titan single season rusher, scored a couple touchdowns, and finished the year with the best total yardage mark of all time – but he needed 36 carries to do so, and he’ll be grateful there’s no game next week so he can rest. He got hit hard. The Hawks tough play actually ended in a push, and I must say, I didn’t expect them to come out with any will at all. They must have fought the evil Jim Mora curse this week, goldbaum, chili powder, and alfredo will do the trick every time…

Cincinnati Bengals (+10.5) @ New York Jets (LOSS) I thought this game would be tough for the Jets as the Bengals always play close games, tough defense, and the Jets have a really hard time moving the ball offensively. I was wrong. Cinci came out playing thier starters, and tricking the public into believing they were playing to win. But Carson Palmer ended 1/11 for 0 yards and an INT – while Ochonacho finished without a catch for the first time in 125 games… Tough game for me, I thought it would be a lot tighter than that. The do-over next week in Cincinnati should be interesting…

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 16 2009 Predictions

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You know what they say, if you’re going to do something you might as well do it right. Okay, maybe I made that up, or maybe they say something similar to that, but it works for Week 16 as I ended up winning twice as many as I lost, and came away with yet another winning week. Single roll freaking Yahtzee! Here’s how my 10-5-1 Week 16 went down…

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San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Tennessee Titans (WINNER)  The Chargers made quick work of the Titans, and Tennessee couldn’t get that 2nd win over an above .500 team. Chris Johnson still did work though, and you can bet I’ll be all over the Titans against the Hawks next week.

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons (Loss) The Bills couldn’t compete. If this team doesn’t have a new coaching staff within a week of the regular season ending, I’ll be stunned. The Falcons came out doing dirty work from the get go, getting people involved early, and dominating the Bills throughout.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals (WINNER) You can count this game as a lesson learned, I fully expected the Chiefs to lose, but have seen the Bengals barely win too many games this season. Put another “close win” notch on their resume, a late TD to Ochocinco gave the Bengals a touchdown win.

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5) (WINNER) The Browns ran the ball, and while their best back (Harrison has been their best back for the last three years) didn’t have his best yard per carry day, he did control the game rushing more than 35 times and getting close to 150 yards on the day. As I said, the Browns didn’t need much QB help after all.

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (-13.5) (WINNER)This game was over by the time Ryan Grant got his first carry. The big back ran downhill and the Hawks didn’t seem to fond of catching him. Two touchdowns, and some easy passes from Rodgers, an interception filled day from Hasselcrack – it was an easy win indeed.

Houston Texans (+3) @ Miami Dolphins (WINNER) As I said, the Texans are the better team, and here they are going for an outside shot at the playoffs. Houston’s defense played very well, and that’s because they are good. Weird. Who knew? Me.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (-7) (Loss) The mighty Giants are a mess, and out of the playoffs, what a shame, no post-season looks of disgust from Eli’s frowny little face… The Panthers straight crushed the Giants, and the win apparently kept John Fox his job – great – another year of falling behind by a score early and completely abandoning the run – ugh.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) @ New England Patriots (Loss)The Patriots seem to have it figured out, or maybe they just played a Jacksonville team that always seems to put up soaked baby diapers when it matters most. Coaching… Anyway, New England tossed touchdown after touchdown early, giving the slow moving Jags offense no chance for success.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15) @ New Orleans Saints (WINNER) The Bucs won outright, and they did it in pretty physically dominant fashion. Tampa controlled the line of scrimmage, and now the Saints are flailing to the finish.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PUSH) As it was, a tough game to call indeed. It ended up in a push as the Steelers hit a field goal to win it. Baltimore had plenty of chances, that’s for sure, but numerous mistakes haunted them and leave them needing a win to see the playoffs in the final week. I got the push, but I hate pushes.

Denver Broncos (+7) @ Philadelphia Eagles (WINNER) The Broncos fought hard and could have easily come out of Philly with a win, but Donovan McNabb through a missile to Jeremy Maclin that the rookie caught just before falling out of bounds, that’s when the game was over as Philly had to just run out the clock and kick a short field goal.

St. Louis Rams (+15.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (Loss) The heart and soul of the Rams offense, one of the best players in football, Steven Jackson, was a late scratch, and I have to believe, that if he was healthy, this would have been a cover. But what can a guy do? Lose with class I guess..

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-11) (WINNER) Frank Gore was the best player on the field on Sunday, and the 49ers finally got back to realizing that as the compact running back marched for 150 yards from scrimmage, got 28 carries, and pounded the Lions all day.

New York Jets (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts (WINNER) Well, the better team was Indy, but as I said, that wouldn’t matter when you teamed up the Colts sitting their guys before the game was over and the Jets needing a win to see the playoffs – those two things got New York the game, and me a nice win. “Easy peazy japenesey.”

Dallas Cowboys (-4) @ Washington Redskins (WINNER) It’s pretty clear I have the Redskins pretty well pegged, and those weeks of playing solid football look to be over.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Chicago Bears (Loss) Well, what can a guy do? The Vikings were beat up by the Bears, and though the final score shows an overtime loss, it looked worse than that. Minnesota had some huge plays just to get back in it, and one has to wonder if the Vikings are who we thought they were, or a greater version of the Panthers?

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 15 2009 Football

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It wasn’t glorious in all it’s light, but it was another winner. I’ve had a handful of close weeks in a row, but with a solid start, it’s hard to argue with a couple games over .500 here, a couple over there, one over here, (and last week, one under) – I’ve had a solid year, as many of you know, and giving away 100% of the NFL games for absolutely nothing has hopefully helped you profit. And while it starter well early, had a mid-day lull, and took me all the way until Monday Night to assure myself yet another winner, Week 15 was indeed another winner, and with two more yet to go, here’s the review…

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Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Winner) The Colts did indeed play their starters throughout, and I needed every bit of that starter action to get the job done. Peyton (starter) threw a touchdown pass, a deep one, to a wide open Reggie Wayne (starter) after the Jaguars did their best to end that undefeated season option. Too bad, so sad, the Jaguars couldn’t finish the job – weird.

Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) @ New Orleans Saints (Winner) In my Just Picks Newsletter, I wrote this, “The Cowboys are not playing bad football, despite the press being in favor of the contrary, they’ve had a tough couple games, but are still a good team. Giving a good team more than a touchdown is usually and auto-bet for me, seeing the Saints struggle often in the last 6-7 weeks has me thinking this might be the week defeat becomes a reality.” And in my actual game write-up, I wrote something similar. I saw it coming, the crystal ball was clear for me in this one.

Chicago Bears (+10) @ Baltimore Ravens (Loss) The Bears really suck, I’m sorry for taking them, I just couldn’t buy the Ravens putting up huge offensive numbers two weeks in a row – I should have bought in – did I mention how bad the Bears are?

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (+7.5) (Winner) Well, the Bills made it close, and only because Tom Brady and the Pats offense was brutal after the first quarter. I don’t know what it is, the cold, the fact that they just aren’t clicking, maybe this team is just losing it, but New England has been brutal of late, and the Bills just barely took advantage and made it close enough for me to cover.

Arizona Cardinals (-11) @ Detroit Lions (Loss) After being up 17-0 at the end of the first half, the Cardinals came out with poop on their shoes in the 2nd half, and gave up 17 straight to Detroit in a disgusting display of football. They brought it together just enough to get a touchdown win, but they really jerked me around in this one.

Cleveland Browns (+2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (Winner) This game was a close one, it had Cleveland/Detroit type highlights, and once again the world became Joshua Cribbs’ oyster – the kid can straight make touchdowns, and a little piece of advice, don’t kick it to him this time…

Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ New York Jets (Winner) The Falcons had little to play for, they were eliminated by the time game-time rolled around, and the Jets still have playoffs aspirations despite losing this game – are you kidding me? the AFC is a mess! New York came out and tried hard not to lose, but probably didn’t run the ball enough. Atlanta’s D-front was game from the get-go, though, and that played a big roll in the Falcons all out road win – they don’t do that much.

San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles (Loss) The Eagles made the 49ers look silly, and I still think they are – Frank Gore’s running numbers were great, yet they only ran the guy 16 times – no good Mike, no good at all.

Houston Texans (-10) @ St. Louis Rams (Loss) The Texans just barely squeaked this one out. I don’t know how they compiled so many yards without scoring, but they did. Andre Johnson had nearly 200 yards receiving all by himself, on 9 catches, but not a single touchdown. Crazy. The Texans did not enough while still getting the win – underdogs win again!

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans (-3) (PUSH) The Titans let the Dolphins right back in it, and because of their dismal play and lack of late game aggressiveness, all I got was a push out of this one.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-12.5) (Loss) And the Broncos lose outright. What a joke. They had plenty of chances but just weren’t aggressive enough against a Raider team that came out playing hard. And it may end up being a loss that costs them a playoff spot -against Oakland – yeah, the Raiders – gross.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ San Diego Chargers (Winner) The Bengals were good enough to cover easily, and the Chargers needed that game winning field goal to win at home. Cincinnati is good folks, I keep telling you, don’t let their big loss to Minnesota sway you, this Bengals team is legit on both sides of the ball.

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (pk) (Winner) What can I say? Everything pointed the other way, but you knew the Steelers would find a way to not lose 6 in a row. With nothing to play for, except pride, they sure showed a lot, winning this game as time expired. This was the Lucky in LuckyLester…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-7) (Loss) Jim Mora should sell punching bags with his face on it, Seattle fans would buy those out for Christmas presents in one day.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Carolina Panthers (Loss) The Vikings were horrible – the Panthers showed up. Defensively, Carolina shut down a lot of Minnesota’s game plan, and in the end, this game turned into a Carolina blowout – making a lot of people wonder if Favre will continue to struggle in late-season situations.

New York Giants (-3) @ Washington Redskins (Winner) The Giants dominated the Redskins. I wondered if it was possible for Washington to continue their solid play, and came up with the answer, nope. As it turned out, in the rubber game, I was right on the money. New York was the much better team on MNF.

Free Football Picks Review: NFL Week 14 2009

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Well, a couple underdog picks made me look really bad with my free football picks for week 14 NFL, but isn’t that always the case when underdog picks go awry? Work with me here… When you take a big favorite to cover the spread, say the Saints by 10.5 in Atlanta against a Falcons team without their starting QB and RB, and New Orleans barely covers, a field goal win, then everyone gets together and says, “Oh, tough luck, bad beat, I see where you were coming from, it’s too bad, you can’t win them all.” and so on and so forth – but when you take a team like Detroit to cover against the Ravens and they end up losing 48-3, everyone says, “what a dope, what the hell were you thinking?” – well, I was thinking lots of stuff, and in the end it didn’t work out. But dogs win, as you can very well see. Dogs didn’t always do me well this week, but I finished 9-7 for yet another winner. Not a huge week, but I’m starting to think my end of the year tally is going to look pretty nice. Not many losing weeks in that heap! Here’s how Week 14 went down…

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Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) @Cleveland Browns (Loss) Here’s a favorite that just ended up kicking me in the shins. I’m not sure what to think about the Steelers, but looking at next week’s game, where they might be an underdog, I might just have to come back to the well. Can they play this terrible again?

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+10.5) (WINNER) This is one of my dandy picks of the week, Redman was much better, and the Falcons always come to play at home, just like they did against New Orleans. A field goal win for the Saints wasn’t enough to keep me out of the winner’s circle.

Detroit Lions (+13.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (Loss) The Lions failed me. I thought Daunte Culpepper was going to come out and do work, but the Ravens finally did work offensively, getting a huge game from Ray Rice, and beating up on the kitty cats.

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Chicago Bears (WINNER) The Packers dominated the Bears on the ground, getting a great game from Ryan Grant, and beat the Bears by a touchdown. It wasn’t as easy as the masses expected, but the touchdown win did the job.

Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) @ Houston Texans (Loss) Oh Seattle, as you well know, you should be fading me on Hawks picks by now. I once again blew it in trying to predict how this team would play, and put way too much thought into the fact that they were getting healthy – Seattle didn’t care about this game one little bit. Nice work Jim Mora… Or can I just call you Richard for long?

Denver Broncos (+7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (Loss)The Broncos fought back, but they couldn’t get that late score I needed to turn a 12 point gap into a winner – Peyton and crew do it again. Amazing.

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (WINNER) The Dolphins were the better team, winning outright in Jacksonville. What can I say, this game just felt like one of those Jacksonville was supposed to lose. A win would have really helped their playoff resume, I guess that’s why, it just meant too much.

Buffalo Bills (+1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (WINNER) Buffalo couldn’t contain Jamal Charles and the Chiefs rushing attack, but that’s okay, because they found 4 interceptions and just enough offense to garner a couple points – with less than 100 yards passing, the Bills won by 6. Gross. 

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings (Loss) The Bengals got handled pretty well. I liked them to make a game of this, surprise people once again, but I guess that will have to wait until next week. With a loss here, they should have a nice spread next time out. I’ll get my win one way or another!

Carolina Panthers (+14) @ New England Patriots (WINNER) The Panthers weren’t good, really, but they can run on anyone. Leave it up to John Fox and company to be within a score almost all game long and still end up with more pass attempts than rushes. It hurts my brain to even think about how that is possible, especially with DeAngelo averaging 6.5 yards per rush, and the entire team averaging over 5. Ouch, my brain… But they covered anyway, thank goodness.

New York Jets (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WINNER) The Jets stomped the Buccaneers and their defense had a whole lot to do with it. Weird, who would have thought?

St. Louis Rams (+13.5) @ Tennessee Titans (Loss) Here’s another road dog I wish I had back – what can a guy do? The Rams defense didn’t come out with much of a plan to stop Chris Johnson – maybe it’s impossible? I wish I would have seen the light before my wallet saw the toilet in this game.

Washington Redskins (pk) @ Oakland Raiders (WINNER) The redskins beat up on the Raiders because Washington is actually a very talented team and playing pretty damn well. Look at their last 5 games and you will see, they’ve had some tough luck and they very well could be 5-0 in those games.

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys (WINNER) How about them Cowboys? Actually, neither team played very well in this one, and I’m surprised the Cowboys didn’t pull it out. Still, the Chargers secondary is much improved, and they got the best of the Boys here.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1) @ New York Giants (WINNER) What a game, just about as exciting as they get if you like touchdowns, big plays, and elite athleticism. DeSean Jackson’s speed is magic, I’ll tell you that. Philadelphia looked in control throughout, despite fending off a good fight from New York.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (Loss) The Cardinals let a stinker, stepped in poop with bare feet, swallowed a pack of gum, whatever you want to call it, and the 49ers fed the ball to Frank Gore for a huge victory. I wish the NFC West didn’t exist, I’d have a much better record!

NFL Free Football Picks Review: Week 13 2009

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Well, you can’t win them all. Week “unlucky” 13 was my first losing week in my free NFL football picks in a long time, seriously, look at the records, I’ve been tallying up winning weeks like it was my job, (and it kind of is), but Week 13 broke in and slapped me in the face. A lot of games started out well and looked good going down the stretch, but finishes weren’t good to me and a Monday Night egg laid by the Ravens was the last straw needed to break my winning back. Here’s how the crumbs tumbled….

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New York Jets (-1) @ Buffalo Bills (Winner) The Bills couldn’t do anything offensively as Darrelle Revis absolutely shut down Terrell Owens. The rest of the Bills offense didn’t fare much better as they could only muster 13 measly points. The Jets did just enough to keep themselves in the win-column, winning by 6.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (Winner) The Eagles just flat out dominated the Falcons. From start to finish, the whole idea of Mark Redman being a very good back-up option, and maybe even a better down-field thrower than Matt Ryan was basically put to rest. The Eagles moved the ball easily, and Mike Vick even got in the end-zone twice against his former team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-6) (Winner) The Panthers didn’t do much offensively, at least not after the first drive, but the way their defense was picking off Josh Freeman’s passes, they didn’t need to put up a gaggle of points. 16-6 was the final score, as Jonathan Stewart put in work running the ball for Carolina.

St. Louis Rams (+10) @ Chicago Bears (Winner) The Bears could only put up 17 against an improving Rams defense, and Steven Jackson rushed for just enough yardage to keep the Rams close. St. Louis didn’t get into the end-zone, but 3 field goals were good enough to cover.

Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals (-12.5) (Loss) The Bengals were up 23-7 in the 4th quarter before they magically blew my cover and got me beat up by a mob of angry gamblers. The Lions got a late touchdown and covered up just like that. Hate.

Tennessee Titans (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts (Loss) The Titans were close all day, they just couldn’t get the ball in the end-zone. No late game heroics from Vince today, oh no, it was Peyton stealing the show early, and the Colts defense bending and bending and bending with very little breakage all day long. The Colts are good. I still think I’d take the Titans +7 if they played one more time.

Houston Texans (+1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Loss) The Texans didn’t have it in them. Jacksonville’s secondary played much better than I imagined, and believe it or not, I think the Texans desperately missed Steve Slaton. Whether they’d like to admit it or not, since they’ve benched Slaton (though this week it was his health that kept him out), the Texans have really struggled to get wins. Weird.

Denver Broncos (-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (Winner) This game was an easy one. And I always love an easy one. The Broncos dominate bad teams, they’ve done so often this year, and the Chiefs definitely qualify, even at home in Chief-town.

Oakland Raiders (+11.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Winner) The Raiders just flat out beat the Steelers, and Big Ben was in the game and everything. This really was fantastic, I can’t believe what the Raiders have done to good teams this year. The Steelers are falling hard, and all but out of the playoff race going into the final four weeks of the season.The Raiders, well, they’ve only beaten the Bengals, Steelers, and Eagles this year. Amazing.

New Orleans Saints (-8.5) @ Washington Redskins (Loss) The Saints should have lost this game, but Shaun Suisham wanted to see an undefeated season, so he missed a 2 yard field goal that would have put the Skins up 10. Sure enough, Drew Brees obliged and found Meachem to tie it up. To overtime we went, and a tough fumble call brought the Saints into field goal range – and they got the win. They found a way to win while the Redskins found a way to lose – weird, 12-0 and 3-9…

New England Patriots (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins (Loss) Oh New England, yet another game that started so well, had me thinking “of course this was going to happen, you’re so smart, Lucky” – third person business and all – they the Patriots poo the bed and end up losing. I don’t know what’s more amazing, the Patriots losing all these games while being ahead in the 4th quarter, or Baxter eating an entire cheese log…

San Diego Chargers (-12) @ Cleveland Browns (Loss) The Chargers were killing the Browns, slowly but surely getting closer and closer to a cover. Ah, but then the “slow down game” started happening, and all of a sudden, the Browns score sixteen 4th quarter points behind James Harrison’s quick feet (dude should have been playing more a long time ago). The Chargers did nothing, but they did win – which of course, isn’t good enough for me. Up 27-7 going in, me counting my winnings, it’s never a good thing to do – that fat lady does some funny stuff before she sings.

Dallas Cowboys (+1) @ New York Giants (Loss) I don’t know what it was, but the Giants found some highlight reel plays to get late scores. Brandon Jacobs took a pass for 70+ yards and Dominik Hixon returned a punt for a TD. Dallas couldn’t run the ball at all. Those big plays put the Giants ahead for good, and despite a big day from Tony Romo, the Cowboys allowed the Giants to get back in the race, and now see themselves tied with Philadelphia at the top of the NFC East.

San Francisco 49ers (+1) @ Seattle Seahawks (Loss) Oh, I don’t know what to think about San Francisco. Since they finally signed Michael Crabtree, they’ve really struggled. I think they are trying to force the ball in the air too much. They should remember back to when they were 3-1 and running the ball 50% of the time – that might help them moving forward. This team has no identity right now, and despite force feeding the ball to Julius Jones relatively ineffectively, the Seahawks walk away with a win anyway. It was a close one, came down to Olindo Mare’s last second field goal. But the loss hurt.

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) (Winner) The Cardinals brought it right to the Vikings. They passed the ball with a lot of success, kept that intense Vikings pass rush off of Kurt Warner, and the defense forced Brett Favre into one of those Favre-like-days that hadn’t shown up over the course of the season thus far. He probably should have had 5 interceptions, but 2 was enough for the Cardinals, they easily handled the Vikings.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Green Bay Packers (Loss) I needed a Monday Night cover from the underdog Ravens, and I felt pretty confident. Unfortunately for me, Flacco was way off, he wasn’t throwing his normal lasers, and Ray Rice couldn’t find any running room against the Packers’ rush defense that has really improved from the first few weeks of the season. Green Bay looked very good while Baltimore looked old and injury ridden. This game was tough to watch, but the Packers definitely outplayed the Ravens and I finished a couple games under .500 for the first week in a long time…

NFL Free Football Picks Review: Week 12 2009

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Well, it wasn’t a grand demonstration of undefeated genius, but it was another winning week. In a crazy week, where I struggled with afternoon games (which I rarely have trouble with), and definitely had a couple late game snake bites (thanks Vince Young, and Pittsburgh trying not to lose). By the time the Pittsburgh line came out late, it was the Ravens heavily favored, and that should have been a win for me, but I had to take it at even to start the week. All’s well though, because a blazing 7-3 start (including a 2-1 Thanks Giving), was just enough to keep me going green. Save the planet, follow my picks. Here’s a little review for Week 12’s NFL action – 9-7 overall.

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Thanks Giving Thursday Games:

Green Bay Packers (-10) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) Just like I suspected, the Packers were just too much for the Lions. No strong pass rush for Rodgers to deal with means wide open spaces for Aaron to deal out passes to. I was a little worried all week, as I thought Culpepper was starting and figured that definitely gave the Lions a better shot to win. But, luckily, Stafford went out there less than 100% and I knew it was going to be a good turkey day.

Oakland Raiders (+14) @ Dallas Cowboys: (Loss) The Raiders still had a nice chance to cover late, and while they failed, watching this game you have to know where I was going with the road dog cover. Regardless, Tony and the Boys did just enough and I took a Thanks Giving day loss.

New York Giants @ Denver Broncos (+7): (WINNER) Like I said, the Broncos just have a different demeanor when they come out to play and are supposed to get owned. This line was one that described a good road team that has been playing well, coming in against a struggling home team. Sure, the Broncos had struggled, but not any more, and probably less, than New York. A good win for the Broncos, but the Giants are looking up at playoff teams right now.

Sunday Morning Games:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+13.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (WINNER) This was a great game to take the Bucs. They were up most of the game, and Matt Ryan was hurt early, and a cover was a sure thing from just about the 2nd quarter on. Now the Falcons came back to win, but that doesn’t mean much to my account. 

Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills (Loss) Well, this was an unbelievable line, especially with the way the Dolphins had been running the ball, but the Bills came out and thundered the Fins in the second half, and took this game away from Miami in a hurry. The Dolphins surely missed a little Ronnie Brown today, thought Ricky had another really nice game.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans (WINNER) When the Colts were down 17-0, I said, “I’d still take the Colts to win this game. It might be by just a point, but I still like them to win.” – And the rest went just like I figured. The Colts scored more than I thought, but hey, they covered and needed all those points to do so. I still think the Texans have a chance to win out.

Cleveland Browns (+14.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (WINNER) The Brownies didn’t do much, but they didn’t have to. They played well enough defensively to keep the Bengals out of the end zone most of the day. And anytime you do that, 14.5 points is a tough dog to beat.

Washington Redskins (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (WINNER) The Redskins probably should have won this game, but Redskins and “probably should have” never have much pull when talking about reality. But they definitely were a sure-fire cover for most of this game. I was rarely in any worry whatsoever.

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+3) (Loss) Oh, the Rams gave up some points, and the Hawks did a smart thing and gave Justin Forsett the ball. Jim Mora must have had somebody else making personnel decisions, or I’m sure he would have found a way to get TJ Duckett back in a Hawks uniform. This was still a gross game for Seattle, and I’d be surprised if, despite their ridiculously easy schedule going forward, they won 2 more games this season.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets (-2.5) (WINNER) Jake Delhomme. Yep. That’s about all I have to say. Mr. Revis, the rest of the Jets defense, their coaches and fans – they all say thank you, Jake. Thanks for hail-marry’s every time you throw the ball.

Sunday Afternoon Games:

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (-3) (WINNER) The Niners came out shutting down the run and rushing the passer early and often. They did just enough through the air to get the win, and capitalized on good field position. I still think they need to run more to be consistent, but a win’s a win, and the 49ers got that done on Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ San Diego Chargers (Loss) I expected a lot more form the Chiefs, or maybe I just am not respecting the Chargers enough. I think I’m on them next week, which should make me worry as soon as I type out my newsletter.

Chicago Bears (+12) @ Minnesota Vikings  (Loss) Oh Jay Cutler. Oh Jay. The Interceptions are mounting my rifle-armed friend. How good does Chicago look now? Brian Urlacher thinks the trade was stupid, I wonder how the rest of the organization feels? I know what I think – it was a great trade, for Denver. I thought the Bears would come out focused for a chance at a huge upset, but they just played the same crappy way they have been. I promise, new head coach in Chicago next season, new coordinators, new everything.

Arizona Cardinals (+1) @ Tennessee Titans (Loss) The Cardinals did just enough to lose this game. That’s right, they played not to lose, and we all know how that always works out. With guys like Anquan Bolding, Steve Breaston, and a little receiver named Larry freaking Fitzgerald, you think they’d take some chances against a Titans defense that has been beat early and often this year. Nope. The Cardinals did just enough to have a late 4 point lead, and we all know what 4-point leads turn into when winners get their hands on them. Yeah, losses.

Sunday Night Game:

Pittsburgh Steelers (pk) @ Baltimore Ravens (Loss) This was my second straight last second tumble, and I have to say, Dennis Dixon was good enough to win this game. The Steelers didn’t want him to lose it, and that’s the recipe for doing exactly that. Get Dixon running the ball a little more, throwing on the move, making plays that he’s always made in football, and you get plays like his rushing touchdown in the 2nd half. Have him hand the ball off on 3rd and 6 and you get overtime. Dixon’s first mistake ended the Steelers’ chances, but the fact that they couldn’t stop the Ravens’ rushing attack despite knowing it was coming in overtime gave the Ravens a much easier kick to win the game. Tough loss, especially when I thought Big Ben would be starting, but you can’t win them all. Plus, later in the week this was a 9 point spread, and if you took my advice, you won this game for sure.

Monday Night Game:

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (-2.5) (WINNER) The Patriots will be shown as a team that got destroyed this Monday Night, and that may be true, but I saw a lot of open receivers down the field that got missed. I saw a lot of underneath coverage taking away the short crossing patterns, but the Pats didn’t move the ball down field to counter that. I saw Tom struggling with his accuracy most of the game. I also saw a defense that couldn’t do anything against Drew Brees – and this turned out to be a much easier win than it should have been. But I’ll take it!

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 10 2009

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If you look hard enough, you’ll see basically two different weeks for my selections this time around. You’ll see my losses (Sunday Morning was tough for me) and my wins (the afternoon and night games brought me right back) – the bottom line is, it wasn’t a great week, but as I’ve done almost every mediocre week this season, I still finished out of the red. In 15 games this week I managed 8-7 and moved 1 more game over .500 for the season. I’m not a big fan of 8-7 weeks, double digit wins is kind of my thing, but when the tough gets tougher, a winning week feels good enough! Here’s how it went down!

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Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5): (WINNER) The 49ers didn’t try too hard to win, but with Jay Cutler throwing them the ball in the red-zone, they didn’t need to. A late field goal put the 49ers up 10-6, and a last minute interception in the end-zone (Jay’s 5th on the night) slammed the door shut on the Bears, giving me a nice cover to start my week.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Carolina Panthers: (Loss) “Okay, I get it, this is obviously a trap game for the public bettor. And I see what Vegas sees in this one, really, I do, and yes, I’m making my Falcons pick anyway. What does Vegas see, you ask? Well, they see a Falcons team that can’t stop the run, has lucked out lately, and hasn’t really played elite football consistently all season long. They are just 1-3 on the road, and that offense that was supposed to dominate this season – they’ve been out-gained in 3 of the last 4 games and their opponents have gained more yardage through the air in 6 of their last 7 – even Jake Delhomme and the Panthers out-passed Matty Ice and the falcons. But despite all this, the hype train is running at full speed.” I hate, hate, hate, hate when I see what Vegas is banking on and I go against it despite my better judgment. I hate even more how much worse 8-7 seems than 9-6. Anyway, tough one for me, I’d like to think it would have been different had Michael Turner continue the 250 yard game pace he was on, but I’ll never know. Dang Vegas! You won this one, but I’ll win the war!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5): (Loss) The Dolphins were out-played by the Bucs. That’s the last thing I thought I’d ever say this year, but it’s true. Luckily, they are the Bucs, and in almost every opportunity they’ll find a way to lose. Well, lucky for the Fins, not as lucky for me, I needed them to “really lose” and 2 points wasn’t enough. I still don’t know how the Bucs stayed this close.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16): (WINNER) Just by the hair on my chinny chin chin – and yes, that’s right, I do keep hair on my chin for situations such as this. Unless I shave soon, I might have to start saying “just by the hair on my necky-neck-neck” – but I’m planning on running into a razor sometime this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-6.5): (Loss) Oh, the Jets can disappoint a guy, that’s for sure. I thought Sanchez had his swag back, but apparently not. The Jets defense just didn’t show up, and the Jaguars somehow limited the Jets rushing attack. I expected neither of those things to happen. That’s how you become wrong, when things just don’t go the way you expected them to go.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (WINNER) This was a huge one for me. The Bengals once again held the Steelers out of the end zone most of the day (well all day this time) and Cincinnati did just enough to pressure Big Ben (and not let him get away from sacks) and despite losing their stud running back, the Bengals just found a way to win. Amazing. Regardless of the outcome, it was easy to see that 7 points was just too much.

New Orleans Saints (-13.5) @ St. Louis Rams: (Loss) Really? The Rams? How can a guy predict this stuff? Will the Rams play well next week too? Will New Orleans play like dump against a bad team? I can’t wait to search for those answers… The Rams were a 2 minute drill touchdown away from upsetting the undefeated Saints, but weird, they just couldn’t get it done when it mattered most.

Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Tennessee Titans: (Loss) Well, I liked this pick heading into the 4th quarter, that’s for sure. Neither team had scored much, it was tied, 7.5 was looking great! Then the Bills did what they do late in games, 24 points were scored in teh quarter, none by the crappy Bills offense (or their team, for that matter) and the final score makes me look like a clown… It was close! I promise! I know you didn’t watch this terrible game, but it was close!!! If you never watch the Titans because they have stunk all year, and last year they weren’t expected to be good so they got no National TV games, you have to tune into Monday Night Football this week – Chris Johnson is some other kind of fast – awesome to watch that guy run!

Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins: (Loss) I don’t know what happened here. Even if Orton goes down, you’d think the Broncos could find some way to beat this Redskins team. But no, Jason Campbell actually looked good throwing the ball at times on Sunday, getting some nice touch on short passes, and using his receivers’ strengths. If he had pocket awareness the Redskins would be decent. Alright, that might be going too far, but defensively, the Redskins stopped the Broncos all day long.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) The Raiders are not as good as Kansas City. Their coaching staff is a question mark, their players are wondering what they hell they did earlier in life to deserve this crap, and their owner uses batteries to make his black heart beat – as for the way the Raiders play football, their offense won’t do them any favors, that’s for sure.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-8.5): (WINNER) Papa Weimer tried to pick against me in this game, what a crazy uncle I’ve enlisted. Didn’t he listen to a word I said? The Cards are a terrible match-up for the Hawks and Seattle fans. As they’ve shown lately.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3): (WINNER) I almost always pick against teams that don’t look or play very good and still win. That was the Cowboys last week against the Eagles, and what do you know, they come out with a dud this time around… Green Bay completely shut down everything the Packers did, and when they did allow a little bust in coverage, they just out-toughed the Cowboys and caused fumbles.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ San Diego Chargers: (Loss)The Eagles have just fallen apart of late, and if they don’t get it together (now without Westbrook) they are going to fall right out of the playoff race (maybe not, there’s only 3 teams in the NFC with 6 wins). Philly needs to find a running game in a hurry, they sure didn’t find one against the Chargers.

New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) Most of the time, when you pick the winner of a football game, you also will win ATS. Especially when it’s not a double digit spread (I’m telling you, do the research and the math, you’ll see the numbers). This was one of those times where that didn’t work out. Many will blame Bill for his 4th down call on the 28, and I have to admit, I wouldn’t have done the same thing – but giving Peyton Manning the ball on about the 25 yard line (with a good punt) with 2 minutes and two timeouts might be a 50-50 chance to win. Getting two yards basically wins you the game. I wouldn’t do it, but I see why he did it. Either way, it looks bad, the Colts came back to win, the Patriots still covered. I won’t lose any sleep over it.

Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (WINNER) This one was eerie at half time when neither team had put up a point. Gross. I think I’d rather watch a quarterback competition between Jon Gruden and Jaws than the crap I watched on Monday Night. But, the Ravens managed a few points in the 3rd quarter and what do you know, one quarter of points was enough to oust the Brownies and show everyone exactly what they I said earlier in the week, “This team is bad, and last time the Ravens played them, the Browns were exposed for exactly what they are. A team with no offense, no defense, and a clown in a man suit acting as head coach. Dreamy situation. Yeah, I’ll take Baltimore.”

College Football Betting: NCAA Week 11 2009 Review

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I put together another winning Week in NCAA football, and it’s all starting to come together. This week I took games from Tuesday to Sunday, and I found a lot of winners in big conference match-ups, finishing 9-6 overall. What will a crazy Week 12 bring? Lets check out the review for Week 11 first. Here goes!

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Ohio Bobcats (+3) @ Buffalo Bulls: (WINNER) The Bobcats may have needed a late field goal to get the win, but they outplayed the Bulls – and that’s why they got the win. It’s always good to start out with a victory.

Toledo Rockets (+16) @ Central Michigan Chippewas: (Loss) This is what I get for picking against the Chipps. CMU put up 28 points in the 2nd quarter alone, tying the Rockets totals for the entire game. Toledo just couldn’t get it going, got some tough breaks, had a couple dropped balls, and just flat out couldn’t stop Dan LeFevour. The Chipps won by 28. That was 13 too many for me!

Bowling Green Falcons @ Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (+3) (Loss) This was tied at halftime, 14-14. That didn’t last too long into the second half as Bowling Green came out throwing, and defensively shutting down the Redhawks. 21 unanswered points later, the Falcons took me down, ousting Miami-Ohio 35-14. Sorry about this one.

South Florida Bulls @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+1): (WINNER) The Scarlet Knights dominated this game. Face it, with Tom Savage at quarterback, these Knights are very efficient, look how they’ve played since he became the starter. They are 7-1 with just a loss to Pittsburgh. They deserve more credit, until they get that, they have nice value.

West Virginia Mountaineers (+10) @ Cincinnati Bearcats: (WINNER) West Virginia battled all night with the Bearcats. Some will say that WVU had a late and seemingly meaningless score, ha, they played the Bearcats tough all game long, and were in it from start to finish, just like I said, 10 was too much.

Clemson Tigers (-7) @ NC State Wolf Pack: (WINNER) C.J. Spiller: best college football player I’ve seen this year. He almost outscored the Wolf Pack all by himself, throwing, rushing for, and catching a touchdown, Spiller was responsible for 3 TDs – the Pack scored just 23. If it was just C.J. versus the Pack, it would have been close, but Spiller got to use his teammates to help on Saturday, proving to be too much for N.C. State.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-10) @ Duke Blue Devils: (WINNER) The Yellow Jackets annihilated the Blue Devils, showing that while the Duke program is improving, they have a long way to go. GT just had too much power and swag, dominating this contest all the way through.

Michigan Wolverines (+10) @ Wisconsin Badgers: (Loss)The Wolverines weren’t looking so bad going into half, down just 21-17, but the Badgers did work in the second half, scoring 24 points to the Wolverines’ 7. One has to wonder how long Coach Rodriguez will have that job in Michigan. Maybe Notre Dame will hire him?

Kentucky Wildcats @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+3): (Loss) After being up 13-10 going into the half, the Commodores remembered how they collected those first 8 losses on the season, and sure enough, the managed to duplicate the feat and give up 14 points in the 2nd half while scoring none. When you pick teams that lose, sometimes they manage to show you exactly why they do so.

Arizona Wildcats (pk) @ California Golden Bears: (Loss) The Cats really ruined a chance for a big match-up further down the line, and a chance to really take their program up a notch when they just flat out didn’t make big plays against the Bears. Cal played like they wanted it more, if was definitely a tough one to stomach, despite the competitiveness of the game and the close score, I think this Arizona team should beat the Bears 8 of 10 times they play. This was one of those two…

Washington Huskies @ Oregon State Beavers (-11): (WINNER) I said the line wouldn’t matter here, and I was dead on, just like I wrote, the Beavers were the Huskies worst nightmare, further proving that while the Huskies can hang around against throwing teams, these running powerhouse’s just dominate the Dawgs.

UCLA Bruins (+18) @ Washington State Cougars: (WINNER) The Bruins did everything I thought they’d do, dominate the Cougars from snap to end game, and they did it a lot of ways. In my write up I said, “just because teh Bruins only average about 20 points a game doesn’t mean they won’t put up 30+” and I couldn’t have called it better. I also mentioned that if the game was “any closer than 35-10 I would be absolutely stunned”. Not stunned.

Miami Hurricanes @ North Carolina Tar Heels (+3.5): (WINNER) I really liked the Tar Heels chances with capitalizing on Miami mistakes, and just like I predicted, that became a huge part of this game. The Heels didn’t keep it as low scoring as I imagined, but that’s because they put up tons of points against the Canes. A nice upset on the road for a growing Tar Heel program.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Panthers: (WINNER) The Irish were outmatched and out-manned in this one, but they fought back late to get me the cover. An Irish loss, a cover for me – it couldn’t get much better. What did I learn from this game? If Charlie Weis has a job in football next season, he has Golden Tate to thank, because without that guy’s turbo button, I think the Irish wouldn’t have made a bowl game this year.

East Carolina Pirates @ Tulsa Hurricane (-5.5): (Loss)Tulsa not only lost, they got smacked around. Favored by 5 against an East Carolina team that couldn’t seem to muster an ounce of offense last week was too much for them. ECU’s defense scored more than Tulsa’s offense – never a good sign. Sunday NCAA loss for me.

College Football Free Picks Review: Week 10

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9-3-1: You have to like slamming home 75% of your bets – this was my best college week of the year. I had previously thought college ball to be a little easier than the NFL, but the start to the season has been 50/50 and it was nice to get a big week out of my College picks. It was a big week for all my picks, winners everywhere! Here’s the review!

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Bowling Green Falcons (+3.5) @ Buffalo Bulls: (WINNER) “I just think Bowling Green plays well on the road. They lost to Missouri and Marshall away from home, 7 points separated them in each loss. They recently won at Kent State, be it by just a single point, before beating Ball State by two touchdowns on the road. They’ve done this all through the air, using their passing attack to efficiently move the ball and create big plays. The Bowling Green Falcons have out-passed every opponent outside of Boise State so far this season. Now, they have been out-rushed in almost every game, so they definitely go how their passing attack goes.”

So their passing attack didn’t really hit the gold until the 4th quarter, but that was enough for Bowling Green as they snaked out another one-point win this season. They couldn’t run the ball, but when it came down to it, they sure could throw it. A big stop late gave the Falcons a chance, and they cashed it in. Big win to start the week!

Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (+14) @ Temple Owls: (WINNER) “Alright, it’s your lucky day, the Redhawks have moved from a 13 point dog to open, to a 14 point dog when I made my pick, to a 17 point dog right now. That’s a huge move, and it might be because 67% of the public likes the Owls. It also might be because the Redhawks have their fair share of injuries while Temple is basically injury free, healthy as a night owl, if you will. It also might be because people are realizing Miami’s 1-8 record to start the season. You could say they are the favorite. But 14 points? (17 points for you if you’re betting now)? The Owls haven’t been a two touchdown favorite since 2001. Now, they covered in that game, but as you can see it has been a long time. It’s almost 2010.”

The Redhawks made it tough on me, waiting until the last quarter of each half to get their game right. After 19 straight and unanswered points to grab the lead late in the 4th, Temple hit a last second field goal to secure the win. What a game of swings. I still got my win, though, and I know you got yours. Nobody said it would be easy, but the points were too much for a team that hadn’t been a big favorite in, well, just under forever.

Purdue Boilermakers (+4) @ Michigan Wolverines: (WINNER)  “Luckily for you, this spread has made a change for the better since Monday Night when I made my selection. I have the Boilermakers at +4 but they are already getting +6 at almost every book. Still, 75% of the public likes Michigan to cover at home in this one. Fortunately, I think the public is confused, and the man is happy as a clam at high tide about the whole thing. See, the public (or so I guess) sees 5-4 Michigan hosting 3-6 Purdue, and they think, “favored by less than a touchdown, give me that football powerhouse, Michigan” – but that’s where they’re all wrong. Sure, the Wolverines got the Fighting Irish when they were on the other side of that luck thing, and that was a good win. But their other four wins have come against less than stellar competition, Delaware State, Western and Eastern Michigan, and good old Indiana. How’s that 5-4 resume looking now? And Michigan has really struggled lately, losing 4 of their last 5, including a beat down last week at the hands of Illinois, of all teams. Purdue may have 6 losses, and on any given day they can play like piss, but aside from last week, they’ve been very competitive against some pretty good teams. Purdue has lost by more than a touchdown just twice this season, losing to Notre Dame and Oregon by 5 points combined. They got kicked around last week by Wisconsin, but that puts them in a good place to come out and fight hard against Michigan. I’ll take Purdue, the better team of the two.”

A lot of you thought I was full of it when I labeled Purdue the better team of the two – but I’m not looking so silly now am I? Neither team is what one would call good, but Purdue’s tough schedule makes them an interesting team to look at every week, while Michigan’s patty-cake start has them close to aut0-fade status.

Washington Huskies (+4.5) @ UCLA Bruins: (WINNER)  “The public actually slightly likes Washington in this one, and that kind of surprises me, but I’m proud of them, maybe they see what I see. I see that UCLA has a pretty good defense, but they can’t get anything working on offense. They have quarterbacks that can’t seem to step into any throws, and a rushing attack that doesn’t produce much. They’ve been out-rushed in each of their last 5 games, all losses. Washington can play with any team that can’t efficiently run the ball, or won’t commit to running the ball early and often, and in all those cases they are a good bet to cover.”

The Huskies managed to lose this game, but that’s what the Huskies do. They covered the spread nicely though, and that’s the perfect recipe for me. After all, it’s not like I need a win to get a win, you know? And one for the public! Go team!

Oregon Ducks @ Stanford Cardinal (+5.5): (WINNER) “Stanford is one of the best teams in the Nation that nobody knows about. What does that mean to you? It means they are a great bet. They’ve had a couple tough losses over the last three games, going just 1-2 during that stretch. But this spread is not right. First of all, it’s even better (for Stanford side) now than it was when I made the pick. The Cardinal are now getting a full touchdown at home. They are a physical team that matches up well with Oregon, and the Ducks are just coming off a huge emotional high after upsetting the Trojans. Regardless, the value is in Stanford’s corner. Andrew Luck is a very good quarterback that nobody knows. The Cardinal have a very physical offense line that should give Oregon’s defense lots of trouble. Both these teams run the ball very well, Stanford doesn’t have as many big plays, but they get first downs, shorten games, and end up on top more often than not.”

It was what I thought it was. They were who I thought they were. And nobody let anybody off the hook. The Cardinal came out and did what they do. They ran the ball with great success, as Toby Gerhart got the ball 38 times, rushing his team to victory with 223 yards and three touchdowns. Both teams did their thing, and Oregon tried to fight hard late to get the win, but they came up just short in stopping Gerhart, and a late field goal by Stanford sealed the deal. The Cover was rarely in question, as Oregon couldn’t stop Stanford’s powerful run game, and QB, Andrew Luck was solid as usual.

Kansas Jayhawks (-3) @ Kansas State Wildcats: (LOSS) “64% of the gambling public agrees with me, they’re taking Kansas. Not the greatest feeling when you’re betting on a team that has lost 5 straight against the spread yet they’re still getting public love, but it is what it is.” Yeah, so, like I said, not the greatest feeling. The Wildcats pretty much shut Kansas down from the get go. A 2nd quarter touchdown and a very late field goal made it a 7 point game, but K State didn’t really make any mistakes, and Kansas wasn’t good enough to create for themselves. Missed this one.

Illinois Illini (+7) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers: (WINNER)  “Once again, I love these late season games where 2-6 teams that have struggled but are still better than 5-4 teams finally get a chance to try and make things right. I’m a strong believer that when Illinois travels to Minnesota to play the Gophers, that’s exactly the type of game they’ll be playing. Illinois has stunk this year, no doubt about it. But despite their stinking, they had lost 3 games by two touchdowns or less before beating the piss out of Michigan last week, 38-13. That was their second straight win against the spread, and probably the first game they played up to their talent level.”

The Illini continued to play the football many expected them to be running from the beginning. I had this was spot on, as Illinois looked like the much better team from the get-go. I wonder why it took so long, but no matter, hopefully they continue getting good numbers from the books.

Navy Midshipmen @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-11): (LOSS)  “I normally don’t think much of Notre Dame’s chances to cover double digit spreads. They play heaps of close games, are greatly overrated, and spend way too much time throwing the ball, which, if you’ve noticed, is a good way not to cover spreads against lesser teams. Now, Navy is a run-centered team, they hardly ever throw the ball and use the ground and pound style to shorten the game and get tough yards. That’s good for covering double digit spreads as well.”

Why in the hell I just ignored this is beyond me. I know, the QB injury, well he played and he ran – 31 times for 100+ yards, and while his yards per carry weren’t much, that grind it out styled kept the Irish off the field. That Notre Dame defense couldn’t stop anything the Midshipmen ran at them. It was glorious. What did I learn here? A couple things; 1 – ever if I pick Notre Dame, I love it when they lose. And 2 – I need to listen to myself, and when I have an overrated favorite with many reasons to go against them, I definitely need to follow that reasoning!

Virginia Tech Hokies @ East Carolina Pirates (+13): (PUSH) This was a push. What more is there to say? The reasons I went with the Pirates were there. The reasons I should have gone with the Hokies were there. It was a push. I hate ’em, but they rear their ugly heads from time to time. The Hokies really shut down that Pirate offense, putting their offense in good places to succeed. They rarely did, but a late field goal was enough to push. Blast!

Nevada Wolf Pack (-12.5) @ San Jose State Spartans: (WINNER) This one wasn’t even as close as I thought it could be. Nevada dominated from the coin flip, what can you say, tails never fails! It was nice to get a big Sunday win to top off a very nice week. Yay us! Winning is good! How close was this? San Jose scored their first points in the 4th. Four Nevada players rushed for at least 112 yards, 5 rushed for at least 1 touchdown. Believe it.

LSU Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5): (WINNER) I definitely was sweating this one out. The Crimson Tide had to ride a 2nd 4th quarter comeback to cover my spread, and they did it just by the slimmest of margins. Those half points can certainly come in handy from time to time. If you got this game late, you likely had a little more room to spare, but you still needed that last push from the Tide. I’m sure glad we got it!

Boise State Broncos (-20.5) @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: (LOSS) What should have mattered to me here was Louisiana Tech’s solid play to start the season, especially when going up against big favorites. Boise State did enough to win, and it looked like an easy cover after the first half, but the Bulldogs came out fighting like, well, bulldogs, and they made the Broncos sweat it out a bit indeed. This was one of a couple losses on the day, and it could have gone either way.

Oregon State Beavers (+7) @ California Golden Bears: (WINNER)”This one is a little weird to me, because when you break down these two teams, I think it’s overwhelming that the best team between the two is Oregon State. I know the Beavers are on the road in this one, but they’ve played well away from Beaver-town this season, losing by a score to USC and beating up ASU outright. They’ve only lost to good teams like USC, Cincinnati, and Arizona. Cal’s wins are unimpressive, that’s the bottom line. The best team they’ve beaten is either Arizona State or Minnesota – maybe UCLA?”

If you watched the game you saw that Oregon State was better, everywhere. It didn’t help the Bears when their best player had to be carted off the field (Jahvid Best was released from the hospital with a concussion, but it looked bad). The Beavers didn’t have that feared rushing attack working at it’s best in the first half, but with Canfield completing just under 75% of his passes, taking advantage of the Bears shaky defense, the Beavers were running the show in Cali, just as I imagined.

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 8 2009

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So, 7-6 isn’t the glorious same as 10-3 but it’s a winning week nonetheless – yet another winning week, and the season continues to be good. Week 8’s preview is short and sweet, but you’ll see 7 winners and 6 that didn’t go so well. Here goes…

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Atlanta Falcons (+12) @ New Orleans Saints: (WINNER)  “It’s Monday Night Football, these are two good football teams, it’s an NFC South rivalry game, the Saints are coming off a lucky comeback win, the Falcons are coming off a disappointing loss, 12 points is just too much on that stage with those circumstances.  I know the big favorites have dominated the season thus far, but games like this just don’t get 12 points – that’s way too many.” I hope everyone going with the Saints learned a valuable lesson, no matter how good you are, the value can easily fall with the challenger.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ Green Bay Packers: (WINNER) “Now it’s very hard to beat a good opponent twice in the same season, but I just don’t see these two teams as equals.” I think that’s what it came right down to. The Packers have some great pieces, but the Vikings have a better offense and a better defense, and they showed that by beating the Packers twice in as many tries.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3): (WINNER) It’s awkward, but Vince Young wins. His numbers aren’t great, but with a rushing attack like the Titans have, and now teams have to pay attention to Vince, that just opens up the run game for the Titans. Vince didn’t run for tons of yards, but him being a threat gave Chris that little extra room he needed – either that or the Jaguars are just brutal defensively – either one, got this one right on.

Oakland Raiders (+17.5) @ San Diego Chargers: (WINNER) “The Chargers aren’t a great football team. They aren’t in the Patriots, Giants, Colts, Saints, Vikings, type group. That pretty much makes them a bad-value-bet as a double digit favorite. When that double digit favorite moves over 3 scores (a couple touchdowns and a field goal) they move even farther away from value and into a whole new category of auto-fade. Can the Chargers beat the Raiders by 3 touchdowns? You bet. It’s just not a great bet to happen.” Like I said, the Chargers aren’t one of the best teams in football, and are basically an auto fade as a HUGE dog like there were on Sunday.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals (-10): (LOSS) “Many sharp bettors see this game as great value for the Panthers. They have a rushing attack that should be able to get some yards against an Arizona front 7 that has basically eliminated rushing attacks all season long (ranking #1 in stopping the run) and Arizona is coming off a huge win, almost surely ready for down game. And this line, in my opinion, is too close to wager too much, but I like the Cardinals despite the inflated spread.” So, everything except that last part pretty much spot on. The Panthers did run on that vaunted Cardinals defensive front, but even more surprising was the fact that their defense suckered Warner into a half a million turnovers. If John Fox (or whomever is in charge of the Panthers offense) doesn’t get in the way of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, this team can do some damage going forward.

St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3.5): (LOSS) The Lions, in my opinion, have hit a new low. Sure, you say they’ve won a game, and that’s true, but last year they didn’t lose to the worst team in football. This year they did, well, they lost to Steven Jackson, and Jax is the greatest player on the worst team in football. I watched a lot of this game, because I’m a little bit sick, it was just as painful as it seemed.

San Francisco 49ers (+13.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER)  “I liked the 49ers at -12 to start the week, but this one has a chance of getting to 14 points. Oh, that would make me feel so good. Still, 13 is a good number to get past as well, that way a touchdown and a couple field goals up still keeps me in the money. An out right win would surprise me, but don’t put it past the 49ers, staying within 13 seems like a good bet to me.” The bottom line is, and this should be universal, you don’t give a good team nearly two touchdowns. Say what you want about the Niners, but I’m thinking that by years’ end, you’ll come around, you’ll label them a good team. They proved their worth while holding Peyton without a passing TD, but some key injuries might hurt them a little.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-3): (LOSS) The Jets dominated this game offensively, but the Dolphins had Ted Ginn Jr.  – NOw lately that has been a bad thing to have, dropped passes, basically unreliable and almost a liability because defenses hardly have to get in his way because he’ll drop the passes all by themselves. But this week he was a kick returner, and on one return he was the sole reason for the touchdown. They say it’s the blocks and the lanes, but Ginn Jr. sat in one place, had 4 tackles go past, and went from 0-60 in about .5 seconds. It was dirty. Those special teams’ covers will kill a cover, just ask the Jets who played well both defensively and offensively.

New York Giants (+1) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (LOSS) Am I wrong about the Giants? I know Ellie is back in full force, but is this team really going to break my balls a fourth week in a row? I might just take them again. The Eagles have showed me some strength against a solid defense, they are really playing well, I’m sure that will come back to haunt me soon.

Denver Broncos (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: (LOSS) The Broncos ran into a buzz saw Ravens defense that was tired of being labeled “losing their dominance” and they certainly got handled. It was a close game at half, but that kick off return TD reared it’s head again, and from then on the Ravens put it to the Broncos hard. I guess Josh McDaniels had to lose one sooner or later.

Houston Texans (-3) @ Buffalo Bills: (WINNER) It took a quarter or two, but the Texans just started handling the Bills. Buffalo is an absolute mess and Houston proved they can win running the ball as well, even if it’s with Ryan Moats. That’s right Moats blew up the Bills’ weak spot, run defense, while Matt Schaub took a back seat to get the W. Houston won easily.

Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Chicago Bears: (LOSS) The Browns have lost it, maybe even Raiders style. I didn’t know what I was getting myself into, the Bears -14 seemed like suicide, but I have to realize going forward that some numbers look bad but some opponents look worse. Even Matt Forte ran well in this one – we’ll see how it goes next time out for Jay Cutler and the boys.

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5): (WINNER) “The Hawks have only played well against the league’s lesser teams, and while Dallas might not be Super Bowl bound, they are definitely a team fighting for a playoffs spot this season. All things considered, I just think Dallas’s pass rush will be too much.” That was a big difference in the game, the Hawks completion numbers were pretty high, but they had too many negative plays, and the Cowboys brought too much pressure for the Hawks to burn them deep. Matt just didn’t have enough time. Until the Hawks get healthy, pass rushing teams will eat them up.