Tag Archives: week 10 NFL Preview

Denver Broncos vs Washington Redskins Free Pick & Preview

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Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins Free Pick & Preview: I picked the spread in this game before the line opened at any books, and while it is down to 3 at most books right now, I have to stand by my pick at -4.5 – I’m not too worried about it, it would be amazing if that one point difference, especially between those two numbers, makes much of a difference in this game. I still don’t see what or why this spread is as small as it is. Obviously some people a lot sharper than me like the Redskins in this one, because it’s not the public, 73% of the public like what they see in the Broncos. That’s another scary number.

But the Broncos have shelled bad teams this year. I’m not sure Washington’s defense is anywhere near as bad as Cleveland, and I don’t think the Redskins are as bad as the Raiders, but Denver made both of those teams look silly. Sure, the Broncos have been blasted (on the score board) two games in a row, but Baltimore and Pittsburgh are no joke, it’s not like they came out and lost to Tampa Bay or anything.

This Broncos team may be struggling running the ball, but the last two weeks they’ve faced arguably two of the better run defenses in the league. They’ll get back on track against the Redskins. I truly believe that. Washington has actually played very well defensively this year, but that offense doesn’t have the firepower to score many points, and I think Josh McDaniels and the Broncos will put up some points in D.C.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders NFL Prediction

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Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders NFL Prediction: Kudos to the oddsmakers, this line hasn’t changed a bit and 50% of the people rest on either side. Quite amazing, really. It’s games like this that make me stoked to have NFL Sunday Ticket, but it’s games like this that make my friends hate that I have Sunday Ticket. I’m telling you, in sports, I like car wrecks, this thing is a full blown opposite direction fast lanes merging into one bike lane – and I get to see it!

Okay, so I’m pretty sure this line is making the Raiders a solid value bet, if there ever is such a thing. The Chiefs getting 2 points in Oakland is basically calling KC the better team, which I honestly have a hard time accepting – and yes, I’m betting on KC this week. Maybe the line is the way it is because the road team has won the last 6 match-ups between these formerly proud franchises. Now you can walk up to a mime and say, “Chiefs-Raiders” and get a pretty good out loud chuckle. The Raiders have beaten the Chiefs in 3 of the last 4 contests, and I’m pretty sure the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that Oakland can say that about. I’m not kidding.

But all pasts and records aside, the Chiefs, at least to me, are the better team. They are cleaning some things up, and have played close games (even winning one, if you count the Redskins) in 3 of their last 4. They lost to Dallas in overtime, beat Washington in D.C., and just lost by 3 to Jacksonville in Florida last week. The Chiefs are definitely playing their best football of the year. They lost last time they played the Raiders, 10-13, but I think they turn the tables this week. I’m pretty sure losing to Oakland 4 times in 5 games is physically impossible.

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals Free NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-8.5) Free NFL Pick: Arizona beat Seattle 27-3 last time out, and that game was in Seattle where the Hawks have proven to be one of the best home teams in the NFL. The Cardinals powerful defensive line handled a injury ridden Seahawks offensive line, shut down the Hawks rushing attack, and put pressure on Matt Hasselbeck all game long. I don’t have any reason to believe that this weekend’s tilt between the Seahawks and Cardinals will be any different. I just think that, flat out, the Cardinals are a terrible match-up for the Seahawks, even a Hawks team that doesn’t play soft and have a depleted roster because of injuries. A healthy Hawks team would have trouble with the Cardinals.

Unless of course Kurt and company just has one of those games, something they’ve proven they can do every once in a while. I mean, Kurt and company got smacked around by the Panthers a couple weeks ago – where does that kind of garbage come from? The Hawks can’t put that kind of pressure on Kurt. Warner can pick apart a secondary that tries not to make too many mistakes instead of being aggressive.

The Hawks will try to run the ball, but the Cardinals front 7 are dominant against the run. Arizona’s secondary can get beat deep, no doubt, they give up their fair share of big plays and passing yards, but the Hawks don’t take many chances down field despite having a trio of WRs like T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Nate Burleson, and Deion Branch – not to mention a great young TE in John Carlson. The Hawks come out trying not to lose. Arizona is going to beat them up right out of the gates.

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers Football Pick

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Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3) Football Pick: Oh, I definitely see what the public likes in Dallas here. The Packers are overrated, they can’t give Aaron Rodgers enough time to use his elite arm and awesome wide receiving corps, yet they think they should throw the ball 75% of the time. They got beat up pretty good by the Vikings, and then went and lost to the Tampa Bay Bucs, everybody’s favorite team to go winless in 2009. Then you look at what the Packers have actually done, who they’ve beaten, you get a number of JV teams and a mediocre Chicago Bears squad. (Cleveland, St. Louis, Detroit are their other wins – nice…)

But I have to believe the Pack will come to play on Sunday afternoon in Green Bay. The Cowboys didn’t look very good offensively last week against Philadelphia, and I’d almost say that the Eagles beat themselves more than Dallas taking the victory. Obviously Dallas has a pass rush that could give Green Bay a lot of trouble, but they also have WRs that should give the Packers secondary a lot of trouble. Guys like Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones are all very physical receivers that run great routes – the Cowboys are susceptible to the deep ball, and I think Green Bay takes advantage a few times this week.

Those big plays will be enough to get the Packers the home win, or so I imagine – that Tampa loss will act as a nice little wake-up call for a Packers team that better shape up or fade into obscurity. The Cowboys are coming off a huge win over the Eagles, and they didn’t really play that well. That’s a good combination for a Packers cover.

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Free Pick & Preview

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Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Carolina Panthers Free Pick & Preview: Okay, I get it, this is obviously a trap game for the public bettor. And I see what Vegas sees in this one, really, I do, and yes, I’m making my Falcons pick anyway. What does Vegas see, you ask? Well, they see a Falcons team that can’t stop the run, has lucked out lately, and hasn’t really played elite football consistently all season long. They are just 1-3 on the road, and that offense that was supposed to dominate this season – they’ve been out-gained in 3 of the last 4 games and their opponents have gained more yardage through the air in 6 of their last 7 – even Jake Delhomme and the Panthers out-passed Matty Ice and the falcons. But despite all this, the hype train is running at full speed.

Then you have Carolina, a team that can run on anyone and has done so, has played well against two tough teams in two weeks, and are playing at home against a team that can’t stop the run (or pass for that matter). The Falcons are 5-3, the Panthers 3-5, and there you have it, the Panthers have some value at home if you look at it from those perspectives.

But, look out, I’m ignoring those things. I’m ignoring the Panthers 3-1 ATS record in their last 4 games. I’m going with the Falcons because their coaching staff doesn’t get side-tracked into believing they are something they aren’t. They run the ball well, and will do so against Carolina – they pass the ball better than Carolina, and make way fewer mistakes. They don’t do much for me defensively, but that’s okay, because Carolina loves to forget how easy gaining yards on the ground is. They love to become a passing team with the game on the line, and that has led to much failure.

I’ll ignore all that smart betting business for the simple fact that I can trust the Falcons to do the right thing and I can trust the Panthers to screw up a game where they played like the better team. Fair enough? I think so.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins Point Spread

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5) Point Spread: The Dolphins are probably the best team in the NFL that has a losing record. I think they’re a little better than San Francisco and basically better at everything that the Titans do well. So they’re better than them too. Miami has had one of the tougher schedules in all of football, their 5 losses have come against Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego, New Orleans, and New England. They’ve beaten the Jets twice, and Buffalo – not too exciting in the win column, but tough losses. And they’ve played close with everyone. They’ve been in every single game in the 4th quarter. They have been unlucky, to say the least.

But now the easier part starts, you have Tampa Bay coming down for a nice in-state match-up against an NFC basement dweller. There’s probably very few times I’d take the Dolphins -9.5, but this is a great situation for that. If there’s ever a time, it’s now. Miami has terrorized mediocre rush defenses, the Bucs can’t even claim to be that good. The Bucs are coming off a win, that will probably not happen again this season. The Dolphins need this one really bad if there’s any hope left in finding the playoffs. The Buc’s rookie QB, Josh Freeman, has major hype coming into this game because of his 3 TDs in his first pro start – but he only completely 14 of 31 passes against the Packers – that accuracy (or lack of) will hurt him against a defense like Miami’s.

And then you have Tampa, every “good” team they’ve played this season has crushed them. New England, Philly, the Giants, and the Cowboys all won by 13 points or more. The Dolphins could run the Wildcat exclusively and beat the Bucs by 10. Give Henne the week off! Give Ronnie 30 carries….