Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants (-6) Free NFL Pick: The Giants have killed me loudly over the past four weeks. After starting 4-1 ATS, and showing me that Eli had grown out of his Ellie stage, I began to think highly of the Giants physical style and precise passing game. Four straight losses, both in real life and against the spread, and here I am, still picking the Giants as 6 point favorites against a solid Atlanta Falcons team. Funny how that works. But I seem to be in the “expert” minority here, the only 4 “experts” I’ve seen this week are taking Atlanta to cover.
I don’t know if it’s going to sway you, and if it doesn’t, go with your heart! But this is why I like the Giants this week. The Falcons lost Michael Turner to a sprained ankle, and unless he’s a magic healer (ala Wolverine – yeah, comic book style) or didn’t actually hurt himself that bad (I doubt it, because they needed him bad last week), he’s not going to be playing against the Giants. Slamming Jason Snelling or a less-than-100% Jerious Norwood into an angry Giants defense isn’t the same as Michael Turner.
Atlanta has lost 3 of their last 4 and is 1-4 on the road this season. What doe New England, Dallas, and New Orleans have in common? Ooo, I know, they all beat Atlanta this year. Ooo, and one more thing, they all have winning records. Yes, the Falcons are 0-3 against teams with winning records this season.
For those reasons, and the fact that I apparently can’t give up hope on the Giants to cover me a spread (or I just don’t want to make the switch only to see them beat me) – I’m taking New York to cover.