Tag Archives: Week 9 NFL Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos Football Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (+3): Monday Night football must have known something that most of us did not. After all the off-season turmoil in Denver, to think that a Steelers/Broncos game would be a good match-up in Week 9 of the NFL season seemed crazy when the MNF schedule came out. Yet here we are, and Pittsburgh isn’t the team with the best record – that belongs to 6-1 Denver. Not only has Denver done well straight up, but they’re 6-1 ATS this season as well. And being an underdog isn’t a new thing for the Broncos, so far this season they’ve been favored just twice, against Cleveland and Oakland.

Denver is coming off a tough loss to the Ravens last week, getting pretty much blown out in the second half after going into halftime down 6-0. The Steelers are coming off a bye week right after a 4 game winning streak, including a 10 point win over Minnesota in Pittsburgh. After going 1-2 to start the season, and looking very mediocre in the process, Pittsburgh has picked it up of late, making big plays on defense and continuing to throw the ball early and often.

Denver has beaten Pittsburgh 3 of the last 4 times these two have met. But that doesn’t mean much normally, and now that these two teams have relatively young coaches with different systems and players, that history means even less. Maybe last season’s 33-10 win over New England is a better judge of past accomplishments. It was Josh McDaniels’ offense that couldn’t do much against Pittsburgh’s defense.

But lets talk about this season. The Steelers are 2-5 ATS and have not been able to put the nail in the coffin despite being up early in most games. They have struggled to close, and thus haven’t really met expectations in the margin of victory. Denver has played tough against everyone, their secondary is very good, and they bring lots of pressure to opposing passers. The Steelers might find it tough to block the Broncos pass rush, and since Big Ben holds the ball a little longer than most, that could make for some big plays for the Broncos defense. Denver shuts down opposing rushing attacks, so the weight of the world will go on Ben’s passing skills. That’s a recipe for failing to cover. So I’ll take the Broncos.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick & Preview

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Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2) Pick & Preview: In my experience, when a road team is an underdog by less than three points, the oddsmakers are saying that the road team is the better squad. I can’t believe, not one single bit, that Dallas is the better team.

Both teams can be complacent against lesser opponents, and both can forget the run and pass the ball too much, but in no major part of the game are the Cowboys better than the Eagles. Not offensively, not defensively. They might have a better offensive line, they might even run the ball a little better – but the Eagles can put up points quick, they are solid in every aspect of the game, and I think that gets them the win at home against the Cowboys.

Dallas has one good win, at home against Atlanta two weeks ago. They played well and should have beat the Giants, but Mr. Romo went kamikaze style on his squad. They played decent against Denver, but the Broncos looked like the better team throughout. Tampa, Carolina, Seattle, and an overtime win over Kansas City mark the Cowboys other 4 wins. Lucky schedule. Now I think Dallas is solid, heck, right now I see them as a playoff team. They are getting better defensively and offensively I think they are finding their way again.

But the Eagles do so many things well, and Dallas doesn’t have the secondary to stop Donovan and company. They struggle against elite speed at receiver, and I think Maclin and Jackson are probably the fastest starting receiving duo in the league.

Then there’s confidence. The last time Dallas came into Philly, a playoff birth was on the line, last week of the 2008 season, and the Eagles stomped the Boys 44-6. Yeah, 44-6… The Eagles have won 5 of the last 7 against Dallas. Philly is 3-1 SU and ATS at home this season. Combined, these two teams are 11-3 O/U on the season. Points are going to be scored. I think Philly’s defense makes the big play and gets the win for the home team.

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks Free NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) Free NFL Pick: Ugh. This is a tough one for me. If you tune in weekly, you know I generally have some trouble picking Seahawk games, I think it’s because they are so erratic and I know so much about their team. Players wise, this team is very talented, offensively and defensively. They just have no confidence against good teams, and they can really stink it up.

On the other hand, they can play awesome against terrible teams. The Lions are terrible, I mean, they just lost to the worst team in football, err Steven Jackson. The Hawks can throw the ball well, and the offensive line shouldn’t have as many problems this week when the Lions defensive front comes to Seattle. Still, this is tough because how can you take the Hawks as nearly a double digit favorite? The value isn’t there.

That being said, I am taking them here. Why? Well, the Hawks are 2-0 against teams with losing records, and 0-5 against teams with winning records. So they play well against tomato cans (or fellow tomato cans, if you want to go that far) but they certainly struggle against good teams. Where does Detroit fit in? Right. Those two bad teams that Seattle has beaten, Jacksonville and St. Louis, a 69-0 combined score in those two games. Seattle’s defense plays well with a lead, something they should get this week at home.

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts Free NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (+10) @ Indianapolis Colts Free NFL Pick: As you know, it’s hard to bet against the Colts right now. Peyton Manning is at the top of his game, and his game was pretty impressive before he was at the top. They find ways to win when it’s tough, they cover spreads (5-2 ATS so far this season) and they bring an undefeated record home to Indy to host the 5-3 Houston Texans. But 10 points is too much for me, mainly because good teams shouldn’t get double digits, and Houston is a good team. I know, it sounds as weird to say it out loud as it does to write it, as I’m sure it’s just as odd to read. But it’s true.

The Texans have won 4 of their last 5, three straight, playing good football all season long. Even their losses (for the most part) have been close games. They lost by 7 at Arizona, by 7 against the Jaguars, and their only blowout was Week 1 against a Jets team that came right out and out-physicaled the Texans from the get go. I think Houston is playing the best football they’ve played in their short history, Matt Schaub has been awesome, and despite seeing their star running back get benched last week, they’re always a threat for a big play on the ground. During their current three game winning streak, they’ve beaten a couple pretty good teams in Cincinnati and San Francisco. It will be tough to continue, but they’ve out-passed their opponents in 7 straight games.

Another thing, Houston seems to always play Indy tough. Indy’s won 9 of the last 10, but this game has been decided by a touchdown or less in 4 of the last 5 contests. The Texans might not be getting over the hump, but they’ve been pretty damn close. 10 points for a good team is just good value-betting.

San Diego Chargers vs New York Giants Pick & Preview

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San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants (-3.5): When this line came out I was very excited, somehow, somewhere, somebody decided the Chargers were a complete enough football team to compete with even a struggling Giants squad. Nope.

I know the Giants have struggled, I mean, look, my record has taken at least three straight hits on their behalf – but I’m not ready to give up on what I think about the Giants. They still have an elite defense and an offense that has been moving the ball, just struggling to get into the end-zone. I know Eli’s ouchy footsy injury might be hampering his ability to plant his foot, but I have a feeling the Giants show up this weekend.

If that means Brandon Jacobs and Ahamad Bradshaw running the ball 35 times, or if Ellie gets back to being Eli, or if it’s big plays on defense that set up Giant scores, what ever it is, I think the Giants have a very good chance to beat a Chargers team that just can’t make the big stop defensively. San Diego can throw the ball, but they don’t have the same rushing game they’ve had over the years, and the defensive problems that they ran into last season are still very evident.

Then again, there’s room to question the Giants here. They played mediocre football in Week 1 against Washington, of all teams. They won a game they should have lost against Dallas in Week 2. They then proceeded to win 3 more games against Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Oakland – woohoo! 3 straight embarrassing losses to good teams brings a little question to the equation, but I still think New York is the much better team here.

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints Free Pick

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Carolina Panthers (+15) @ New Orleans Saints Free Pick: The value here is with Carolina and it’s because they have an elite rushing attack and any time you give an elite rushing attack 15 points on Sunday, that bet has value.

Because of how the Saints have played, how they’ve come back and covered in games they probably should have lost outright, and that they refuse to lose as one of the two undefeateds left in football, they are hard to bet against. Not only have they been winning, but they are 6-1 ATS – but the Saints haven’t been two touchdown favorites since they played Detroit earlier this season – if that puts how ridiculous this spread is into any perspective for you. Panthers > Lions – believe me.

The Panthers have won 3 of their last 4 games, so what if their first two wins were over Washington and Tampa Bay and a loss to Buffalo is squeezed in there. The bottom line is, last week the Panthers figured it out and fed the ball to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, the best running back duo in football.

Why it took this long to keep the ball out of Jake Delhomme’s hands is beyond me, but proving to me that they will run the ball to win is good enough for me to take them as a 15 point underdog, even against this year’s “best team in football”.  62% still like the Saints – come on. The Carolina value is good enough for me.

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free Pick

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Green Bay Packers (-9.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free Pick: I normally don’t even like thinking about Green Bay as a big favorite, they just don’t commit to running the ball enough to be a sure thing as a big favorite -but this Bucs team, they make the whole process a lot easier. I do think Tampa Bay can find some running room against the Packers run defense, especially if Green Bay comes in thinking they are going to win because they are better. But a tough loss to Brett Favre and the Vikings should be enough to sober them up for a big performance against a Bucs team that really shouldn’t compete.

The Packers have shown more of a commitment to the run against bad teams. Maybe they feel like they have time to score, and thus they don’t rush the big plays as much, and Grant gets to pound away at lesser defenses. If the Packers continue that trend, and I have to think they will, this should be an easy cover.

The Packers have an aggressive defense and Tampa Bay is starting their first round quarterback for the first time. The Packers have aggressive corners that should test Josh Freeman’s confidence early and often. A couple mistakes by the Bucs, and this thing can turn into a blowout in a hurry. 76% of the public likes Green Bay, yet the line moved away from it’s opening -10. That’s always something that makes me wary. Still, I have to go with the Pack here, it’s their side or no side at all.

Arizona Cardinals vs Chicago Bears Football Prediction

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Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Chicago Bears Football Prediction: I think Arizona’s the better team, but more-so I think Chicago is at the wrong side of a tough match-up in this one. The Bears struggle against accurate passers, they struggle against teams that stop the run, and when they can’t run the ball with ease, they make mistakes that really kill them. I know, the story of Jay Cutler’s life.

Now, I think this could be a close game, but Arizona’s chances of winning this thing are pretty good. The Bears don’t really eliminate anything Arizona does, so the Cardinals should dictate the flow of the game. That’s bad news for Bears fans. Usually, the fact that Arizona is traveling eastward would be bad news for their chances, but as it seems, pulling off multiple road upsets on their way to the Super Bowl had done wonders for their road confidence. They are 3-0 away from home this season, dominating at Jacksonville, Seattle, and ousting the Giants in New York. Those last two are tough places to play, too.

These two teams don’t have much of a recent history, in fact, I don’t think Kurt Warner has played the Bears while in a Cardinal uniform. I do know that Chicago has struggled against solid passing attacks, losing to Green Bay, Atlanta, and Cincinnati so far this season. 3 of their 4 wins also don’t impress me much – we’re talking Seattle, Detroit, and Cleveland here. Beating Pittsburgh was a good win, definitely, so the talent is obviously there.

What it comes down to is match-ups and the Cardinals get the nod in a lot of key areas. I’ll take them to continue their undefeated road record in 2009, at least against the spread.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Preview, Pick

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Miami Dolphins (+11) @ New England Patriots Preview, Pick: Again, I just don’t think you can go against good football teams and double digit points. The Dolphins may be 3-4, but hey, they are a good football team. They can stuff the run, and if anything, they can really run the ball well offensively. They play sound football, get tough yardage, and use that dreaded and famed Wildcat offense to chew up the clock, shorten games, and keep elite offenses off the field. That’s a covering dream right there. Then you give them double digit points? Come on, this is too easy right?

The Pats opened as 12 point favorites, early bets on Miami moved that down to 11 and the small majority of public bets seem to like Miami enough to keep this thing moving down, if you like the Patriots, you can get them -10.5 at some books. But Miami with double digits looks good to me. The Dolphins may be 3-4, but they’ve lost just two games by double digits, a game they freakishly failed to cover in when the Saints returned a late interception for a touchdown after an improbably comeback, and their opening 7-19 loss to Atlanta. They’ve won 3 of their last 4, including two wins against the Jets. They’ve been running wild, and first year starter Chad Henne has proven he can make any throw on the field, making defenses prepare for that for the first time in a long time when facing the Dolphins.

The road team has taken this game in 5 of the last 8 contests. Miami broke out the wildcat to dominate the Patriots in New England early last season. This game has hit the over in 3 of the lat 4 meetings, and Dolphins have busted the over in each of their last 4. I like this one to stay close, and 11 points looks sexy, even against Tom himself.