Tag Archives: Green Bay Packers

NFL Week 3 Free Football Picks

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I’ve had a good start with my free football picks this season, no doubt about it, but now it gets tougher in the NFL. After giving all you readers some impressive picks over the first two weeks, I have a bit of a reputation to uphold, and of course, I’ll do my very best. I had one or two go my way last week, but a couple did me dirty as well. I see some lines looming large in Week 3, I’ll try to get my hands on them and see what I can do. A lot of tight games that could go either way this week, I’ve felt that way and gone 5-11, and I remember feeling that way when I submitted my perfect week a few years back. I’m taking 11 dogs this week, and I’m not sure if that’s such a good thing. I’m not trying to fade the public, even though it looks like that in a lot of instances. I just happen to see some inflated lines because of early season play, and some disrespect for some teams that have played pretty well despite ending up on the wrong side of scoreboards. Week 3 could be huge – going for three big winners in a row… Good luck to all!

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Cleveland Browns (+13) @ Baltimore Ravens: This game will be closer than two touchdowns. I like what the Ravens have done, opening up their playbook for Flacco and company, but I think we’ll get a pretty good performance out of the Browns, as the first two weeks have shown you can find lots of open spaces in Baltimore’s secondary. That should help Brady Quinn and company. Plus, I see the Ravens reverting back to their grind it out style, clock destruction mode, here. That helps this big spread stay covered. We’ll see, but give me the Browns.

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7): There’s no doubt in my mind that the Giants are good, however, they played really poorly last week and won anyway. That’s a red flag for me, as always. They also haven’t stopped the run as well as in the past, another red flag against a Bucs team that runs really well. This game could go either way, but if the Bucs start out running well enough, I don’t think the Giants will take as many big chances. Both teams should run the ball a lot, taking time off the clock, and keeping this one closer to the spread. If Tampa loses they go 0-3, so there’s a lot to play for at home for the Buccos. Tough call, but I have to take the dog in this one.

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ St. Louis Rams: Marc Bulger is bad – the Packers put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the Rams are missing their first round pick starting offensive tackle, and they are the worst team in football despite those things. You can run against the Packers, and I see the Rams attempting to do that early and often. But the Packers lost last week, a loss here would put them at a discouraging 1-2 to start the season. More running game, more blitzing, more cowbell – the hat trick puts me on the Packers in St. Louis.

Kansas City Chiefs (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have trouble with big receivers like Dwayne Bowe, just ask Marques Colston. They also don’t play as mistake free without McNabb. The Eagles heavy blitz system should actually be a benefit to Matt Cassel and his quick decision, precision passing style of quarterbacking. If the Chiefs just put the ball in Larry Johnson’s hands early and often, I think they can take full advantage of the Eagles’ porous front 7. These things and that big spread, have me on the Chiefs to cover in Philadelphia. I know the Eagles are the better team, but KC has played two pretty tight games to start the year. Todd Haley will keep these guys competitive.

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots (-4): I think the Patriots come back strong after everyone starts counting them down and out after last week’s loss. They definitely haven’t played well to start the season, and I’m not sure this defense will be right all year, but I like Tom to get better and better as the season goes forward, and Atlanta has shown me that they can’t stop your best pass/catch option, even if they know it’s coming. I think Tom and Randy have a big day, bigger than Steve Smith last week. New England knows how to walk with a chip, and I think they play much better at home this weekend.

San Francisco 49ers (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings are good, but they are getting too much love after kicking around 2 of the bottom five teams in the league. The 49ers should be a good test. They are very physical, play mistake free football, and can bring it on both sides of the ball with an effective attack. Shaun Hill somehow manages to limit his mistakes despite locking onto receivers and generally throwing the ball into scary places. I think this game stays pretty low in the scoring department, and a 14-10 contest wouldn’t surprise me. Add that up and you get a cover – either way – I’ll take it.

Jacksonville Jaguars  @ Houston Texans (-3.5): I’ve been a huge Jaguars fan for sometime, I like their style and always think they are about to break out. In fact, I think MJD will be huge this week, but not huge enough. Last week the Texans got pretty lucky to get a late fumble, but they were by no means out of that game, and likely would have forced a kick on a 3rd and long situation. They did get the fumble, then got the field goal, then won the game. If Jacksonville can stay in this game early, it might be tough to Houston to pull away – but Houston is always just a play away from taking it to the house, and I think Jacksonville’s defense could end up on the wrong side of a couple late scores. I know Houston doesn’t play it safe late, going for the jugular when they get the chance – I like that to happen this week in a game that should see lots of offensive action.

Washington Redskins (-6.5) @ Detroit Lions: I want to take the Lions, I really do, but they are still starting Matthew Stafford, and they intend to do so all season long. Should be a long one for Detroit fans. I still like the Redskins despite them getting me a loss last week as they failed to get into the end zone. They have some dynamic players, they have to break through sooner or later. I’m betting on sooner.

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Tennessee Titans (+3) @ New York Jets: Can the Titans keeps losing games by a field goal? I don’t know, possibly yes, but it’s tough to go against them here. I like the Jets a lot, I’ve said that since my season preview came out, but the Titans come into Week 3 winless after playing pretty solid football in Weeks 1 and 2. Going 0-3 is really tough, and I usually see a little extra fight from 0-2 teams, something I’ll expect to see this week from the Titans. A little urgency if you will. The Jets are coming off a huge emotional win against the Patriots, after they invested everything into that game. I expect a little bit of a let down in Week 3, just enough to get the Titans their first win.

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills (+6): This game is very hard for me. I know, everyone says ride the Saints, but I really don’t think they are as good as they’ve been playing – they are missing Pierre Thomas (or at least he’s not healthy) and the same can be said for Mike Bell. Reggie Bush is not a runner. Now I know everyone thinks that Brees can just throw every down and be putting up 50 points, but what has been so great about the Saints offense this season is that threat to run. They need it to be dominant. So, that being said, I’m going with the Bills. I think Buffalo has the right combination of accurate passing, and a solid rushing attack, and even a defense that is pretty solid. I think the Bills stun everyone and keep this game close. But like every Saints game, this one could get very ugly very fast.

Chicago Bears (-2) @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle is too beat up everywhere, again. I don’t know what’s going on with the Hawks, the Northwest is a nice place, not too much action to get you injured, not too much sun to get you sunburnt, yet these guys are going down like dominoes. The Hawks do have a couple stud offensive linemen coming back, Walter and Spencer, but I still think the Bears will be too much for them. Defensively, Chicago won’t allow the Hawks to gain too much on the ground, and I’m not ready to count Matt Hasselbeck in on Sunday. This game should be close, not the blowout people are expecting, but I still think Chicago by 3 to 7 points is likely. Anything in that area is a cover, so I’ll take the Bears.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5): The Steelers’ offensive line is still brutal. The Bengals defense is a lot better than most people give them credit for. Last week’s win over Green Bay wasn’t a fluke, this team is pretty solid. Carson looked good last week, and the Steelers secondary has given up a lot of yardage early in the year, getting thrown on a lot by the Titans and Bears, of all super passing attacks. This is a great rivalry, and I like 4.5 points at home. The Steelers haven’t shown me that they are a team ready to blow opponents out, so giving up that many points on the road seems like great value to me.

Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Oakland Raiders: I have taken the Raiders two weeks in a row, and they have set me free giving me victory after victory. The problem is, I think the Raiders get a tough assignment this week, a Broncos team that hasn’t given up much on the ground and can really take advantage of some mis-thrown balls by Mr. Russell, a guy that hasn’t completed even 40% of his passes this season. Kyle Orton doesn’t make big mistakes, and while that might be frustrating fantasy owners of guys like Eddie Royal, this isn’t a fantasy column, and I only see wins and losses. Orton can win. He can definitely win against an offense that needs freebies to stay close. The Raiders have a decent rushing attack, but the Broncos have the guys to put 8 in the box and still shut down the pass. I think they go to 3-0, as crazy as that sounds.

Miami Dolphins (+6) @ San Diego Chargers: I don’t know what’s more likely to happen, the Dolphins starting 0-3 or the Chargers falling to 1-2, at home, to a team that has to fly across the US. The Chargers defense doesn’t look like a team ready to shut down the Dolphins rushing attack. Chad Pennington doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, which should keep this game close. The Dolphins should have won last Monday Night in Indy, and while that really means nothing, you might see the ball bounce their way a little more in San Diego. This game should have lots of action, but I think it stays close, giving the value to the team getting nearly a touchdown.

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals (+2): You all know, by now, how I feel about teams that should have lost last week only to pull out a win. Enter Indianapolis. The Colts not only did this last week, but they played like piss only to beat the Jaguars by 2 in Week 1. That’s two weeks in a row where they played mediocre at best, only to be undefeated walking into Week 3. Kurt Warner was back in action last week, completing just about every single ball he threw. I know the Colts don’t give up a lot through the air, but I think Kurt and company find a way to make that work at home this week, handing the Colts loss number one on the season.

Carolina Panthers (+9) @ Dallas Cowboys: It’s Monday Night, and while I think the Cowboys are a good team, I don’t know if they are 9 point favorite good, even against a Panthers team that hasn’t looked up for the test since the season started. Dallas has looked good against the run, but everyone’s been able to throw on them, and a couple big plays from Steve Smith should cover this game right up. Monday Night always seems to have close games, and Dallas really hasn’t looked brilliant in any game this season. Taking the points!

Ask Papa Weimer: Pre-Season #2

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I’m back. More questions, seemingly better answers than before. This week we tackle auction drafts, the 1st Round wide receiver situation, and the “lack” of running backs – and even Brett Favre. It’s late and my knees are acting up, I’ll try my best not to take it out on the question askers. But that doesn’t mean all that BS about no question being a stupid question is true – there are tons of stupid questions – try me next week.

Graham “Big Worm” from Lower Columbia, WA asks, “What is your take on Brett Favre. The guy gets more coverage than an Anna Kournikova sex tape, which quite honestly chaps my ass, but if he can play he should play, right?” From a fantasy perspective should I dump Trent Edwards, my current back-up, and snatch up the old man?

You got it right on the button Big Worm. The way I see it is pretty simple. Brett Favre threw around retirement like he throws underhand backwards pitches to running backs. He wasn’t quite sure, but didn’t want the Packers relying on him being around so he called it quits, thinking that if he wanted to come back they would obviously welcome him with open arms. The trick was on him. The Packers decided to go with Aaron Rodgers (good move, because the youngster is legit) and did all they could to convince Favre to stay retired, even going as far as offering him money to do nothing. I’m not positive, but I bet that pissed Ol’ Brett off something fierce and it probably made him want to play even more. But the Packers didn’t want to face Brett, and trading him within their own division to help an opponent out made absolutely no sense to them. But Brett’s a competitor, so surely, right off the bat, he wanted to play against his former team and jam it right up their backside. Since he couldn’t, he toughed out a year in Jet-land, gave it all he had, ups and downs, just missed the playoffs, and thus retired again. Giving him exactly what he wanted, the Jets released his rights. That gave Favre the freedom to play wherever he wanted. Brett’s not the first guy to run right back to his old division and sign up with a rival. When let go, lots of guys take it personally, and some have even been known to give up some money for a couple chances a year at their old team. I think that’s freaking awesome. So now he’s in Minnesota and he’s going to give it his all to try and make the Vikings a championship level team. Will he? I’m not sure either way, but I’ll be watching, that’s for damn sure. Now a bunch of people are pissed that he retired and came back and retired and came back, but those people are stupid. Some people think it’s terrible that he went to the Packers’ rival. But it’s that same competitive spirit that made him as great a player as he is. So those people aren’t thinking past go either. Basically, I like it. If he wants to play, can play, and can get someone to pay him to do so, by all means, play until your shriveled up my man!!! As for all the coverage. Blah. I’m sick of it, and my TV is out. I can only imagine how you feel. Fantasy-wise, of course he’s going to have some value. That team is pretty stacked. Peterson is obviously a beast. Berrian has elite speed and Brett can get him the ball. Percy Harvin is dynamite. Even Shiancoe is a solid TE. That line will keep Brett standing. So all things look good except all those rushing attempts should keep him from big yardage. But he’ll still a decent back-up. However, I’d stick with Edwards. I know you don’t have much time, but Edwards is in that new hurry up, with lots of passing, two very good receivers, and some running backs that are solid catching out of the back-field. He’s very accurate, and you never know, this could be a big breakout year for him. But it’s close to a wash, so if you’re feeling one way, go with your gut. I have to listen to my gut, the thing is enormous.

Paul the Perv writes, “I’m in an auction draft and I was wondering if there’s any plan of attack that you try in these kind of drafts? I’m brand new to them and I’m not sure if nominating a guy gives me a better or worse chance in getting him on my team. Any ideas?”

Why are all Paul’s pervs? Hopefully your last name is Pervis or something like that, or maybe you’re just cleverly named as a common man. Regardless, I have answers to your dilemma. I’ve found all auction drafts to be a little different, and have become a big fan of them over the last few years. What I’ve found works best is nominating high-hype guys early in the draft. Guys that you think are a little overrated and currently getting loved on by the public. Now usually what this will do is get your league-mates to overpay for these overvalued players, leaving you with good money to get good value. That’s always my goal. Now sometimes I do this and as it turns out, everyone believes me that a guy is overrated and I end up bidding on the guy because his new value is much better. I almost never cross a guy off my list, everyone has value, but my goal is to make people overpay so I can underpay. Guys like Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Drew Brees, and Larry Fitzgerald are all guys I’d love to have, but they are all getting overvalued. (Even my nephew ranks Forte #2, which I think is too high) So if it was up to me, I’d call their names early if I got the chance, and see if I can’t get people overpaying for services. Hope that helps Perv!

Too Tall Tom from Onalaska asks, “I know you’re a big running back guy in the first couple rounds, but every year is different, is it okay for me to go WR in the first couple rounds this year?”

Sure man, in fact, I think going WR as early as 6th overall isn’t too ridiculous this season. Once you get out of that top tier of running backs, there’s a lot of equality there. And while I don’t buy this whole “the receiver cupboard is bare” BS that seems to be milling around draft rooms, I do think that there is a quick drop-off from elite to good to worth a shot. There are seemingly hundreds of receivers worth a shot. There’s a lot of guys I’d consider good options. But there’s very few ELITE #1s out there. Not enough for everyone to have a couple, that’s for sure. With RBs, there’s a lot of guys that I would be fine starting, and I’m talking about guys you can get in rounds 3-8. So, I’ve had some drafts in which I went WR early, the earliest being the 6th. I had Steve Slaton as my next best RB available, but he wasn’t too far ahead of a lot of the solid backs left, so I went with Larry Fitz and his elite consistency and overall numbers. On the way back (it was a 10 team league, which are the ideal type of leagues to go WR early) I still got Steve Slaton. With my 3rd pick I grabbed Steve Smith, and with my 4th pick I went with Kevin Smith, another guy we like here within the fantasy staff. So I got two number 1 receivers, and two young running backs that had solid years and possess lots of upside. If I went RB with my first two picks, I wouldn’t be much better in my backfield, but I would be worse at WR. That’s the kind of thing you have to think about during the draft, where’s the value? Sure, I went WR a lot earlier than usual. But I got the guy I think is the best player at that position – at a position with fewer elite players. So yes, in short, sometimes it’s good to be different.

Noah, from “just outside the ark” thinks out loud, “All the things I read are saying that WR is shallow this year and RBs are deep, do you actually believe this?”

No, and yes. I don’t believe that either position is actually shallow, but in a way, both are kind of shallow in the “elite” category. In years’ past there are lots of guys getting 80% of their team’s carries, at least. This year, there are fewer of those type running backs. Fewer proven carry-horses. So that makes getting one of those main guys a bonus, if you can. At WR you have the same type of thing, lots of guys with lots of upside, but not so many guys that can get drafted without at lest a little question mark by their production. Now nothing is guaranteed. Vince Young could get pouty in Week 1, feel bad that people are booing him, and never start another game the rest of the year. But those crazy things being written off as just crazy, I think you can find great options all over the draft at any of these positions. Would I rather have Roddy White, Larry Fitz, and Andre Johnson than Dominik Hixon, Anthony Gonzalez, and Nate Burelson? You bet. But should all 6 guys be owned? Definitely. Could all 6 be starter worthy during the year? You bet. I actually think, that with all the “sharing is caring” going around the NFL, having specialty players do certain things, carry in certain situations, and having 3 and 4 WRs, this is actually one of the “deepest” seasons in fantasy football that I’ve ever researched and took part in. There are so many players at all the positions, even TE has a grip of valuable guys. I got Tim Hightower and Julius Jones as 4th and 5th running backs, in rounds 11 and 12, for a league I’m in. That’s two starters. Hightower is young and scores touchdowns, and even though Beanie Wells is there, he’s still starting. And Julius Jones is in a scheme that should use his running ability well, and he’s done well when getting 20 carries a game. So while they are not starters in terms of top fantasy backs, they are still two actual NFL starters that could produce for me this season. Don’t believe the hype, shallow and deep are very arbitrary, especially this year.

NFL Season Preview: Over/Under Regular Season Wins (Part II)

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As promised, I’m back with my over/under predictions for the NFL Season. This time I take care of the middle-of-the-alphabet teams from the Packers to the Jets. I have their over/under total from TheGreek.com and the total wins I project as well. Enjoy!

  1. Green Bay Packers (Over 8.5 wins -145) (11): I really like the Packers’ schedule. They need to be better defensively, but the offense in Green Bay is legit. I think they are the best team in this division, even with the Vikings signing Brett Favre recently. Green Bay has to win some of those close games they struggled with last year, they will run the ball more efficiently, and make fewer mistakes. Playing the NFC West helps, and a split in their AFC games seems reasonable too. I like GB in the playoffs this season.
  2. Houston Texans (Over 8.5 wins +125) (9): Is this the year the Texans finally make the playoffs? Maybe, but I have them coming up a game or two short. 8.5 definitely seems high for the Texans over/under, but maybe that’s because the books are starting to notice their improvement. Houston needs to stay healthy, but if they can do that, they have plenty of talent to make waves in the AFC South, even with Jacksonville improving upon last season’s failures. This is a very close play for me. 8-9 wins seems right on. But still, I like their heads up chances against most of the NFC West and the AFC East, so I’ll take the over.
  3. Indianapolis Colts (Under 10.5 wins -180) (8): Another close one, because a new coach could take a team either way, but I think the Colts struggle a little during their first year without Coach Dungy. This squad has lost a little of it’s luster, the offensive line is not deep, and they no longer have the option of  two #1 receivers. The Jaguars and Texans will be better this season, and Tennessee is solid. Indy does have the benefit of playing the NFC West, but I still like them to struggle this season. Moving away from the Cover 2 look with a bunch of players selected to play the Cover 2 seems tough. Bob Sanders is still hurting, and that doesn’t help. It’s just a feeling.
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars (Over 8.5 wins +130) (10): This team gets better defensively with one more season under the belt of a couple youngsters like Derrick Harvey, Justin Durant, and Reggie Nelson. Also, health along the offensive line is going to be huge for this squad. The addition of the best all around offensive lineman in the draft, Eugen Monroe, won’t hurt either. Torry Holt adds a nice piece for Garrard – a possibly aging, but still solid receiver he’s never really had. Maurice Jones-Drew will get more looks, that’s good too. The bottom line is this, the Jaguars are a good football team. They were decimated by injuries last season, and this year they are healthy and hungry. Good combo.
  5. Kansas City Chiefs (Under 6.5 -165) (5): This team will compete, I like that about them, but a very tough schedule early will make it tough for the Chiefs to build much momentum out of the gates. They will be lucky to win 2 games in their first 7. After their bye week, they play two teams they “could” beat, but they travel to Jacksonville and then Oakland in back to back games, that’s not usually a good thing. I see 6 games at the most, and I like this offense – but moving everything to a 3-4 might be tougher than it looks with this personal.
  6. Miami Dolphins (Over 7.5 +115) (9): The Dolphins were a huge surprise last season, winning the AFC East and garnering the division’s only playoff spot. Chad Pennington outshined the guy he was let go for, and took a playoff spot away from the 11 win Patriots. But still, nobody believes in the Dolphins. I wonder why. This was a team full of youth last season, and those young guys are now a year older. Ronnie Brown should be completely recovered from knee surgery, and he’s one of the more dynamic backs in the league when healthy. They still have Chad, who’s playing for a contract next season, and they resigned some key young defenders this off-season like Channing Crowder and Yeremiah Bell. Jason Taylor may not be the NFL Defensive Player of the year type guy, but he’s back with the Fins and he is still a force on the outside. This team got better. Will they get back in the playoffs? I’m not so sure about that, but they should get over the .500 mark despite a tough schedule (They draw the AFC and NFC South this season, both tough divisions).
  7. Minnesota Vikings (Over 9.5 -105) (10): Does the Brett Favre move jump the Vikings up in my book? Not really. I liked Sage Rosenfels in this offense as a guy that can sling it, so Brett’s addition doesn’t move me one way or another. However, I thought this was a 10-win team without the former Packer, and his presence on the field, being where he wants to be, that might be just enough to move this bet from close to good. The Lions will be better, and the Bears are decent, but I like the Vikings to finish 2nd or 1st in the NFC West. They have a solid defense and a running game that can maul anyone. Percy Harvin is an elite weapon as well. Another big help is EJ Henderson coming back and being healthy, he’s a very good linebacker. This team is much improved, and it’s not because of Brett’s return.
  8. New England Patriots (Under 11.5 wins +120) (11): This one is too close for me to wager on, but I think the Patriots will find 12 wins tough with a pretty darn tough schedule. Like I said already, the Bills and Dolphins both got better this off-season (though I don’t expect much from the Jets). Now, the Patriots did too (Tom Brady coming back), but they have a pretty tough schedule as well. Like the Fins, they go heads up against the AFC and NFC South. This is close though, and they do get an auto win against Denver (I just don’t see Belichick losing to McD), but if I had to go one way on this, I’d give a slight nod toward the under.
  9. New Orleans Saints (Over 8.5 wins -140) (9): I don’t like the Saints, but they’ll be better defensively this coming season. That should get them another win or two. Offensively, I actually think they’ll commit more to the run game, and that will help keep their defense off the field. Is Brees still going to throw the ball all over the field? You bet, but Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush will share a backfield that should be pretty productive. They still have a questionable secondary, but there are very winable games out there and I think their luck shifts a bit this coming season.
  10. New York Giants (Over 9.5 wins -140) (11): This is probably the best team in a stacked division. Sure, the Giants don’t have Plaxico Burress, which leaves them without that precious number 1 receiver – and they lost Derrick Ward to the Bucs, but this team is still stacked with talent. Their offensive and defensive lines are elite. I don’t know if I could say any team has a better front line than the Giants. That will win them 10 games right there. They do have the worst highest paid QB in the league running their team, but he’s still a decent option. They play in a tougth division, but they are tough, and should manage double digit wins.
  11. New York Jets (Under 7.5 wins +115) (6): I see 6, maybe the Jets win 7, but I don’t see them getting 8. The Bills should be better this year, and the Dolphins are more talented as well. Kellen Clemens or rookie Mark Sanchez will be at QB, and neither will provide elite QB play this coming season. They have a very underrated offensive line, but I think they’ll lose a lot of close games. I like their new head coach, but I don’t see .500 this year for Ryan and his staff.

Next time I’ll preview the bottom of the alphabet, from Oakland to Washington.

NFL Free Picks: Week 7

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I started tough last week (4 losses to bound my morning up) but finished strong and hope to keep that mo going heading into Week 7’s games. Here’s how I see them getting figured out…

Tennessee Titans (-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs: Thanks books. The Broncos, sure, the Chiefs can magically beat a team like Denver from time to time. Denver throws the ball a lot and hardly relies on the run to even keep teams honest. Offensive football teams like that can lose to bad teams because of freakish mistakes and miscommunication. Teams that pound you into smithereens on both sides of the ball, like Tennessee, don’t lose to bad teams that don’t do anything well, like Kansas City. The Titans are fresh after coming off their bye week and I expect them to get close to a shutout in KC.

San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (+1): This one is tight, hence the pick em, but I have to take the Bills here. San Diego and Buffalo are different places to play and the Chargers will find that out promptly. It’s an early game, which means the Chargers fly to Buffalo to play at 10 am their time, which usually doesn’t bode well. The Bills aren’t a dominate team by any means, but they play sound football and have an offense that doesn’t produce many mistakes. I like Buffalo in October, like them even better at home, and like them even better early at home against a team from Cali. SO I like this play here a little bit. Still, the Chargers are showing life and they don’t have the time to mess around and lose more games. I still don’t see it from LT yet, and thus I’ll lean toward the Bills.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-3): The play here is Minnesota, but I’m going against my initial feeling and taking the Bears. I think Chicago can pass on Minnesota and I’m pretty sure that if the Vikes had trouble running on the Lions and Saints, they’ll be bottled up against the Bears. I also love betting against teams that won their game but got beat on the field of play – that’s Minnesota two weeks in a row.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The road team always wins this match-up and while it’s normally pretty close, I just don’t think the Bengals have much confidence, leadership, sense of understanding or hope. They are sending Ryan Fitzsomething to the wolves here, and while Pittsburgh has struggled a bit with injuries, it is expected that Fast Willie Parker could return for this game, and that boost alone should get the Steelers and extra touchdown. That being said they are already a touchdown better than the Bengals. Put those two together and a 28-13 game is what I expect.

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (-3): The Ravens just out-physical opponents, and that’s how they win. The new coaching staff in Miami has neutralized that problem by becoming one of the more physical teams in football, on both sides of the ball. Chad Pennington is worth 3 or 4 points over Joe Flacco, and therefor I’m taking the Dolphins. I think they are a pretty solid bet here.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3): I’m against the Saints again, and maybe it will crush me, but until they start doing better work in the red zone I have to go against them on the road against a more complete team. Unlike AP and the Vikes, I do think the Panthers will be able to run against the Saints, and remember what I said, when the Panthers can run they are a top tier team in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants (-10): Tougher call than you’d think, but I found a line that got down to 10 and thus I’ll run with New York. After playing some very good football for a few weeks straight the Giants were bound to falter a bit on the big stage. That doesn’t mean they are done. They were a little overrated, but they are still a top team in the league. I think their pressure and run-stuffing prowess will give them this game. O’Sullivan isn’t good enough to throw 30 times against the Giants and not get intercepted multiple times. Mike Martz will ignore that fact and thus lose this game by default.

New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland Raiders: Lane Kiffin’s gone, so the Raiders are going to have to prove to me that they can beat somebody without him. Didn’t work so well last week, as the Raiders looked worse than ever before. I don’t think that game is a fluke, I think the Raiders sans Kiffin are more doomed than ever. Take the Jets by a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ St. Louis Rams: Do the Cowboys lose a little bit without one of the best quarterbacks in football? You bet. Do they lose something wihtout Pacman Jones? Yep. Do they still have a considerable amount of talent that completely trumps anything the Rams have in St. Louis? Most definitely. I think the Cowboys take less chances, make fewer mistakes, and play better football in their first game without Romo and Jones. They are still loaded on the defensive side of the ball and one more offensive weapon for the Cowboys shouldn’t hurt them. I like Dallas by a touchdown on the road in the face of adversity.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Green Bay Packers: I think the Colts are the play here, even without a rushing attack to lean on. Green Bay is solid, but against a bend but don’t break defense I think they’ll have trouble. They don’t have enough of a rushing attack to make the Colts pay, and if Rodgers is throwing 40 times I see some mistakes popping up. I think this game will be quite the offensive showcase, and in such a game, I like to error on the side of one Peyton Manning.

Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans (-8.5): The Texans are good. They’ve lost a lot of games already. The Lions are bad and they will continue to lose games. I like Drew Stanton but don’t think he’ll be enough to cover this spread. Steve Slaton will be running, Matt Schaub will be throwing, and I think Kevin Walter (of all white receivers) will have a very good game at home this Sunday. I think the Texans win by 2-3 touchdowns in this one.

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5): This is the NFL and anything can happen, just like any other sport, but the Hawks are brutal right now, playing with absolutely no confidence and headed into Tampa Bay where the Bucs play stellar defense that should press Charlie Brown Frye into more than a few mistakes. The Hawks are a lost team and Tampa isn’t a heavy offensive point scorer, but they should still cover this monstrous spread. Defensively the Bucs are too consistent for Seattle to put up much more than 14 points.

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) @ Washington Redskins: The Browns were overrated to start the season and the Redskins were definitely underrated. That being said, I don’t think the current difference between these two teams is more than a touchdown. I think Washington moves the ball well, but if you can take away the run a bit they have trouble scoring. The Browns gain a little confidence back after last week’s big win, and while I do think the Skins are a better team, I think this game comes down to a field goal. Even a touchdown still gets me a win, and I am really liking that extra half a point here.

Denver Broncos (+3) @ New England Patriots: Strength versus weakness here. In a couple ways. The Broncos love to throw early and often, and deep. The Patriots are struggling most in their secondary. The Patriots can’t seem to run the ball and everyone puts pressure on them. The Broncos can’t stop the run and can’t put pressure on anyone – I guess that’s a weakness versus a weakness, but that also favors the Broncos. Without much of a rushing threat, the Patriots won’t be able to trick the Broncos into committing to the run. That means the secondary will be more clogged. The Patriots look bad, and while the Broncos have struggled the last few weeks, I see this as a very nice match-up for them.