Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) Free Football Pick: I know everyone and their mother is going to be on Minnesota, and I know the line has actually gone down from where it opened despite that fact. That’s usually not a good sign. But how can one justify betting money on the Seahawks right now? I know the value is there for them, they aren’t the Lions, Rams, Raiders, Browns or Bucs and they are getting double digit points – that, in and of itself, has value. But when risk is greater than value it’s either a no bet or a pick for the home favorites. Since no-bets aren’t a part of my daily grind, I’m going to go ahead and go for the latter.
Forget history, because this is Brett Favre’s Vikings team, and this is his first year running this show. Forget that this is Seattle’s biggest underdog spread all year long, because this is the best team the Hawks have played all year long. Also, Seattle has been a big dog (9 points or more) three times this season. What’s their record in those 3 games? 0-3 straight up and against the spread. They were beaten by 11 in Arizona last week despite going up 14-0 in the first quarter. They were beaten by 21 in Dallas. And the Colts slapped them around by 17 in Indy as a 10 point favorite.
Could the Vikings have a let down? Sure. It’s possible. And the Vikings have shown some open alleys in that secondary. But should Seattle be able to give Matt Hasselbeck the time he needs with that offensive line against that defensive front? Should the most physical running back in the NFL have trouble against a defense that really struggles to tackle physical runners? Should Brett Favre give the Hawks a pity win like he gave Michael Strahan a pity sack back in the day? That answer is NO! To all those questions.