Arizona Cardinals VS New Orleans Saints: NFL NFC Divisional Playoffs

How can the Cardinals play as well as they did last weekend? Kurt Warner almost had more completions than he did attempts, and that’s actually impossible. The Saints defense is tougher than it gets credit for, and though they will be missing their starting defensive end, as Grant’s out for the season, they will be as healthy as they’ve been in the secondary in a long time. That will play a big role in this weekend’s tilt with the Cardinals. Because, if I know anything, I know Captain Kurt will be winging that pigskin around.

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The Saints lost their last 5 games against the spread and actually lost their final three games straight up. They were 8-8 ATS this season, just 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games, which means, yes, they were 6-0 ATS to start the season. Aside from their first loss of the season, in Dallas in Week 15, the Saints dominated playoff teams, beating the Eagles 48-22, the Jets 24-10, and the Patriots 38-17. The question is, which Saints team will show up? The team that dominated both sides of the ball during the first 13 games of the season or the team that held on for dear life in the last 3 games, two of which they were actually trying to win?

The Cardinals rarely put two solid games together all season long. They won a few big games against big time opponents (okay, they only playoff team they beat during the regular season was Minnesota) but most of their good wins were either surrounded by losses or followed by them. I expect the Saints to play their best football of the last 6 weeks, and I suspect that will be enough to beat a Cardinals team that won’t be on fire like they were last week.

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints (-7)

Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick

Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick: This is my favorite upset of the week, and it has been from the get go. However, looking at it now, it looks as though I’m not the only one picking the Packers to dismantle the Cardinals in Arizona this Sunday. 63% of the public betting on the spread like the Packers to cover, and those are the late numbers. Early percentages were so high that the books responded, moving this spread all the way to even in most sports books as I write this. I see experts taking the Packers at a 2 to 1 clip, and even ESPN’s Suomi likes Green Bay.

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If Anquan Boldin were playing, the Cardinals would have one advantage in this football game, but with him out, the only thing the Cardinals have over the Packers is experience. Arizona made it all the way to the big show last season, playing just one home game, and falling just a few seconds short of taking home the title. But I don’t see that same Cardinals team this season. Arizona has been very inconsistent all season long, and there’s something about the Packers final half of the season that has me admiring their team.

The Packers lost just one game over the final half of the season, as a touchdown pass by Ben Roethlisberger as time expired in Pittsburgh gave the Steelers a 37-36 win. But outside of that, the packers have dominated. During those 8 games, the Packers handled 3 playoff teams, winning by a combined 77-28. Green Bay’s offense has impressed me all year, but it’s their growth in that 3-4 defense that gives them the nod here. Great corners against a less than full strength Cardinals receiving corps, and pass rushers galore -yeah, I like the packers.

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay Packers vs Arizona Cardinals Pick & Preview

Another game that seems too simple. First and foremost, throw out the idea that you are betting on the best team, absolutely not! You can do that a lot, and you can look for match-ups and trends and how teams play against other teams with similar strengths, weaknesses, etc. – but when the end of the year comes a rocking, you can just go on ahead and throw all that garbage right out the window. At that point, with the garbage splattering on another innocent onlooker, you can see the real simple reason to bet one side or another. For example, in this game, the Cardinals are still playing for a shot at home field advantage while the Packers have absolutely no shot to win anything from this game.

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So, if the Packers have any reason whatsoever, and you can bet that they do, they will come out with Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, Driver, Jennings, and every other Packer stud resting firmly on the bench. They’ve done their best work down the stretch, and honestly, they have more to lose (with momentum and injury risk) by actually coming out and trying to win this game in Arizona than they do by sitting down and watching back-ups take one on the chin.

Trying to win and losing (see New Orleans and Minnesota) can do some definite mo-damage while dropping back and staying healthy that final week rarely has an effect, one way or another, on your squad. The Cardinals are still playing for a shot at homefield advantage and a first round bye (believe it or not), so I see them playing starters until they have this game locked up. That’s enough for me.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (-3):

St. Louis Rams vs Arizona Cardinals NFL Week 16 Picks

St. Louis Rams vs Arizona Cardinals NFL Week 16 Picks: First and foremost, 15.5 points is quite the freaking mountain to climb in the NFL. Remember when your grandpa used to tell you he had to walk five miles to school, uphill both ways? That’s kind of like a 15 point spread. Now, with an offense as explosive as Arizona’s, it might just be uphill one way, but when that offense hasn’t been all that efficient down the stretch, we’re getting dangerously close to that impossible uphill both way scenario.

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The Rams can run the ball, that’s another hill the Cardinals will have to climb. Steven Jackson hasn’t been feeling his best, but the guy is amazing. Despite every defense doing everything they can to make St. Louis want to throw the ball, he’s still getting close to 100 yards every game and going work against the NFL’s best. After Arizona gave up and gaggle of yards last week to the freaking Detroit Lions, I have a feeling the Rams will be doing their best to exploit the Cardinals again this week.

And now for the kicker, I don’t see any reason for the Cardinals to play their key guys very long, or give that much effort to win these meaningless games. I mean, sure, they could play a little harder down the stretch, hope to be a high enough seed to be the NFC home team if the best teams get upset throughout the playoffs, but seeing how last year’s slow finish to the regular season had absolutely no effect on their post-season success, I don’t know why they’d risk injury to guys like Kurt Warner in games that will mean nothing.

All things considered, this is Lucky Lester saying, “uphill both ways sucks”.

St. Louis Rams (+15.5) @ Arizona Cardinals:

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions: Week 15 Pick & Preview

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions: Week 15 Pick & Preview: The Cardinals have bounced back all season, and it’s not like the Lions boast to be a formidable foe – and while the Cardinals certainly are tough for me to trust, I have to believe they get back on the horse and pummel a Lions secondary that ranks 451st in the NFL this season. That might be a bit of an exaggeration, but at the very highest, bottom 400…

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The problem with taking the Cardinals is that if they won, Vegas would get killed. It happens every once in a while, don’t get me wrong, and that’s never been a reason for me to go one way or another, but it is a reason to think twice about the amount of dough you throw down on the Cards. In some books I see 98% wagers on the Cards – in other books, right around 75%. The overall numbers I see has 71% of the public taking the Cardinals – but like I said, the books don’t always win.

The Cardinals haven’t lost two games in a row all season long. They are 4-2 on the road this season, 4-2 ATS as well. But they’ve lost each of their last 2 road games, and aside from their 30-17 win over the Vikings two weeks ago, the Cards haven’t been playing great football of late. Losses to the 49ers and Titans and a win over the Seahawks when they were down in the 4th – those have to bring up some questions. But like I said, they haven’t lost 2 in a row all season long, and against a Lions defense where they can run with success, I like big plays to be key to an easy Cardinals cover.

Arizona Cardinals (-11) @ Detroit Lions

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Free Pick

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Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Free Pick: It’s painful for me to do this, I mean, the 49ers have been pretty good to me this year and my favorite player ever to lace up his cleats and put a uniform on is Mike Singletary – but I have to go with the road favorites this week, and it has a lot to do with Singletary allowing his offense to become a spread it out, pass first, run never attack that doesn’t allow them to control the game whatsoever. Mike… Why are you doing it to me, my man? You have Frank Gore in the backfield, run the ball!

The Cardinals have been very good on the road, and even more importantly, very good lately. Some people are going to go-on-ahead and call this a trap game, but it’s hard for me to believe that the Cardinals won’t be ready for a NFC West seal-up game against the 2nd best team in their division. Now, 70% of the public bet likes Arizona, and I know this one isn’t as lopsided as a percentage like that would insist, but I still have to take the Cardinals with a chance for a push if they win by just a field goal.

It’s very hard to beat a good team twice in one season (though that seems to be happening more this season), and the 49ers almost seem like a different team since they snuck by the Cardinals on opening day. They have a little more explosion offensively, but they’ve traded in stability for explosiveness, and I don’t think that’s a good trade for them. The Cardinals have played pretty well in each of their last 5 games, and won each of the last 4 Kurt Warner has started in. With a chance to lock up the division, I think they come out and win a hard-nosed battle on Monday Night.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers

Arses Five Favorites: Week 14 NFL Picks

Well, I guess I was bound for a bad week – after thinking this stuff was much too easy, I went and got slammed last week, as the Bengals, Patriots, and Chargers all blew late covers and Houston just turned up the suck from the get go. Philly came through to keep me from being winless, but 1-4 wasn’t nearly as happy-go-lucky as my two weeks of 8-1-1… Here’s last week’s Review and this week’s picks:

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Week 13 NFL Picks REVIEW:

(W) – Philly -5 @ Atlanta: This one seemed too easy as the Falcons were without their main offensive stars and continue to play porous defense. It was my first (and only) win of the day.
(L) – Houston -1 @ Jacksonville: The Texans could have used Steve Slaton on Sunday – their offense had no punch, and while the Jaguars didn’t play awesome football, it was good enough to oust Houston.
(L) – Cincinnati (-13) @ home vs. Detroit: The Bengals had this spread covered up, but a couple 4th quarter touchdowns were as potent as a bloodsport punch to the face, and I went down hard.
(L) – Patriots (-3) @ Miami: I couldn’t believe this spread. Halfway through the game, I still couldn’t believe it. When the game ended, I couldn’t believe how bad the Pats offense had to play to lose. Damn.
(L) – Chargers (-13) @ Cleveland: The Chargers had this nice and covered up as well, but a late score got me where it counts, and just like that, 1-4 on the week. Ouch. So this is what losing feels like. I don’t like it.

WEEK 14 NFL Picks:

Saints (-10.5) @ Atlanta: The Falcons are down and out without Matt Ryan and Michael Turner – I don’t think Redman has it in him to keep the Falcons close, and I know that Atlanta defense can’t get it done against Drew Brees and his gaggle of awesome receiving options. The answer to that stupid Saints chant, not the damn Falcons.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ home vs. Denver: I just can’t go betting against Peyton. This team is looking for win #13, probably the last time they’ll care about winning before the playoffs start – and I think they do so easily.

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Chicago: I can’t see the Bears ever beating anybody good ever again. This one seems too easy. I know the Bears are 4-2 at home, but the only teams Chicago has beaten all year have losing records, and the only team even close to .500 is Pittsburgh, and they’ve lost 5 in a row, 3 of which were to terrible teams. Give me the Packers with a smile.

Jets (-3) @ Tampa Bay: The Bucs aren’t good. The Jets defense is too aggressive for a rookie QB- this seems like free money to me.

Cardinals (-2.5) @ San Francisco: The Cardinals are playing lights out and can lock up the division with a win over the 49ers on Monday Night Football. The 49ers have absolutely no run game, and I think that might mean a painful night for Alex Smith. I’ll take the Cards, easy.

NFL Free Football Picks Review: Week 13 2009

Well, you can’t win them all. Week “unlucky” 13 was my first losing week in my free NFL football picks in a long time, seriously, look at the records, I’ve been tallying up winning weeks like it was my job, (and it kind of is), but Week 13 broke in and slapped me in the face. A lot of games started out well and looked good going down the stretch, but finishes weren’t good to me and a Monday Night egg laid by the Ravens was the last straw needed to break my winning back. Here’s how the crumbs tumbled….

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New York Jets (-1) @ Buffalo Bills (Winner) The Bills couldn’t do anything offensively as Darrelle Revis absolutely shut down Terrell Owens. The rest of the Bills offense didn’t fare much better as they could only muster 13 measly points. The Jets did just enough to keep themselves in the win-column, winning by 6.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (Winner) The Eagles just flat out dominated the Falcons. From start to finish, the whole idea of Mark Redman being a very good back-up option, and maybe even a better down-field thrower than Matt Ryan was basically put to rest. The Eagles moved the ball easily, and Mike Vick even got in the end-zone twice against his former team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-6) (Winner) The Panthers didn’t do much offensively, at least not after the first drive, but the way their defense was picking off Josh Freeman’s passes, they didn’t need to put up a gaggle of points. 16-6 was the final score, as Jonathan Stewart put in work running the ball for Carolina.

St. Louis Rams (+10) @ Chicago Bears (Winner) The Bears could only put up 17 against an improving Rams defense, and Steven Jackson rushed for just enough yardage to keep the Rams close. St. Louis didn’t get into the end-zone, but 3 field goals were good enough to cover.

Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals (-12.5) (Loss) The Bengals were up 23-7 in the 4th quarter before they magically blew my cover and got me beat up by a mob of angry gamblers. The Lions got a late touchdown and covered up just like that. Hate.

Tennessee Titans (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts (Loss) The Titans were close all day, they just couldn’t get the ball in the end-zone. No late game heroics from Vince today, oh no, it was Peyton stealing the show early, and the Colts defense bending and bending and bending with very little breakage all day long. The Colts are good. I still think I’d take the Titans +7 if they played one more time.

Houston Texans (+1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Loss) The Texans didn’t have it in them. Jacksonville’s secondary played much better than I imagined, and believe it or not, I think the Texans desperately missed Steve Slaton. Whether they’d like to admit it or not, since they’ve benched Slaton (though this week it was his health that kept him out), the Texans have really struggled to get wins. Weird.

Denver Broncos (-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (Winner) This game was an easy one. And I always love an easy one. The Broncos dominate bad teams, they’ve done so often this year, and the Chiefs definitely qualify, even at home in Chief-town.

Oakland Raiders (+11.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Winner) The Raiders just flat out beat the Steelers, and Big Ben was in the game and everything. This really was fantastic, I can’t believe what the Raiders have done to good teams this year. The Steelers are falling hard, and all but out of the playoff race going into the final four weeks of the season.The Raiders, well, they’ve only beaten the Bengals, Steelers, and Eagles this year. Amazing.

New Orleans Saints (-8.5) @ Washington Redskins (Loss) The Saints should have lost this game, but Shaun Suisham wanted to see an undefeated season, so he missed a 2 yard field goal that would have put the Skins up 10. Sure enough, Drew Brees obliged and found Meachem to tie it up. To overtime we went, and a tough fumble call brought the Saints into field goal range – and they got the win. They found a way to win while the Redskins found a way to lose – weird, 12-0 and 3-9…

New England Patriots (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins (Loss) Oh New England, yet another game that started so well, had me thinking “of course this was going to happen, you’re so smart, Lucky” – third person business and all – they the Patriots poo the bed and end up losing. I don’t know what’s more amazing, the Patriots losing all these games while being ahead in the 4th quarter, or Baxter eating an entire cheese log…

San Diego Chargers (-12) @ Cleveland Browns (Loss) The Chargers were killing the Browns, slowly but surely getting closer and closer to a cover. Ah, but then the “slow down game” started happening, and all of a sudden, the Browns score sixteen 4th quarter points behind James Harrison’s quick feet (dude should have been playing more a long time ago). The Chargers did nothing, but they did win – which of course, isn’t good enough for me. Up 27-7 going in, me counting my winnings, it’s never a good thing to do – that fat lady does some funny stuff before she sings.

Dallas Cowboys (+1) @ New York Giants (Loss) I don’t know what it was, but the Giants found some highlight reel plays to get late scores. Brandon Jacobs took a pass for 70+ yards and Dominik Hixon returned a punt for a TD. Dallas couldn’t run the ball at all. Those big plays put the Giants ahead for good, and despite a big day from Tony Romo, the Cowboys allowed the Giants to get back in the race, and now see themselves tied with Philadelphia at the top of the NFC East.

San Francisco 49ers (+1) @ Seattle Seahawks (Loss) Oh, I don’t know what to think about San Francisco. Since they finally signed Michael Crabtree, they’ve really struggled. I think they are trying to force the ball in the air too much. They should remember back to when they were 3-1 and running the ball 50% of the time – that might help them moving forward. This team has no identity right now, and despite force feeding the ball to Julius Jones relatively ineffectively, the Seahawks walk away with a win anyway. It was a close one, came down to Olindo Mare’s last second field goal. But the loss hurt.

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) (Winner) The Cardinals brought it right to the Vikings. They passed the ball with a lot of success, kept that intense Vikings pass rush off of Kurt Warner, and the defense forced Brett Favre into one of those Favre-like-days that hadn’t shown up over the course of the season thus far. He probably should have had 5 interceptions, but 2 was enough for the Cardinals, they easily handled the Vikings.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Green Bay Packers (Loss) I needed a Monday Night cover from the underdog Ravens, and I felt pretty confident. Unfortunately for me, Flacco was way off, he wasn’t throwing his normal lasers, and Ray Rice couldn’t find any running room against the Packers’ rush defense that has really improved from the first few weeks of the season. Green Bay looked very good while Baltimore looked old and injury ridden. This game was tough to watch, but the Packers definitely outplayed the Ravens and I finished a couple games under .500 for the first week in a long time…

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals Point Spread Pick

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Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals Point Spread Pick: Just like I imagined, this spread sky-rocketed in my favor after I published Tuesday Morning’s newsletter – it’s all the way up to a much more likable 5.5 at half the books but if you like the Vikings, you can still get them at -4 in a couple spots. 75% of the public like the road favorites, and how can anybody in their right mind pick against Brett Favre and the media-darlings from Minnesota?

Well, leave it to me to pick against the grain in this one. I just like the match-up for the Cardinals. They don’t run the ball real well (though better lately), but so what, the Vikings take that away anyway, so why waste daylight on the ground? The Vikings have a shaky secondary from time to time, and while the speed rush Minnesota puts together often makes up for their secondary short comings, you have to know that Kurt Warner is a great and accurate quick decision quarterback, and his receivers are studs.

The Vikings get a lot of pressure with just 4 guys, but the Cardinals are very solid pass blockers, and I think they end up giving Kurt enough time to pull the big upset. The Cardinals haven’t been great at home this year, but the Vikings haven’t looked their best on the road either. Arizona does a good job stopping the run, they do a good job shutting down the middle, and they can cause some mistakes from opposing quarterbacks. Brett has been great thus far, could a tough game be coming his way? I like the Cardinals to pull the upset! As a Mike Singletary (and 49ers) fan, I hope they lose, though – make the division race closer. Ah the life of a sports-gambler…

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (+1.5)

Arizona Cardinals vs Tennessee Titans NFL Free Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (+1) @ Tennessee Titans NFL Free Pick: Alright, the Titans have been money since the staff got their heads all cleared up and removed Kerry Collins from the starting quarterback position. Since then, normal Vince Young things have fallen into place – the Titans have just won football games, and luckily for their backers, they have just covered them as well. That’s 4 straight wins and 4 covers in a row for the Titans.

And Vince hasn’t just been a runner, he’s been an accurate passer and kept defenses honest on all four occasions. Vince has completed over 65% of his passes, thrown 3 touchdowns and had only 1 interception since he became the starter. Vince’s presence has also opened up things for Chris Johnson. The fastest back in the NFL has been explosive all year, but since Vince has taken over, CJ has rushed for over 130 yards in all four games. He has over 640 yards in those 4 games, and has scored 6 rushing touchdowns in those games. That’s big time.

But I think the Titans flounder here. I think Kurt Warner and those Cardinals receivers end up doing a little too much against the Titans secondary. I also think Beanie Wells gets enough yardage on the ground to do some damage and keep the Titans more honest than they’ll want to be. Arizona will probably hold Chris Johnson to fewer yards than he’s had in any of the Titans recent wins. Arizona is 5-0 on the road this season, and they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games – they are just as hot and prepared to win this one as the Cardinals are. The Titans are also coming off a short week.