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NFL Free Picks Review: Week 15 2009 Football

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It wasn’t glorious in all it’s light, but it was another winner. I’ve had a handful of close weeks in a row, but with a solid start, it’s hard to argue with a couple games over .500 here, a couple over there, one over here, (and last week, one under) – I’ve had a solid year, as many of you know, and giving away 100% of the NFL games for absolutely nothing has hopefully helped you profit. And while it starter well early, had a mid-day lull, and took me all the way until Monday Night to assure myself yet another winner, Week 15 was indeed another winner, and with two more yet to go, here’s the review…

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Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Winner) The Colts did indeed play their starters throughout, and I needed every bit of that starter action to get the job done. Peyton (starter) threw a touchdown pass, a deep one, to a wide open Reggie Wayne (starter) after the Jaguars did their best to end that undefeated season option. Too bad, so sad, the Jaguars couldn’t finish the job – weird.

Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) @ New Orleans Saints (Winner) In my Just Picks Newsletter, I wrote this, “The Cowboys are not playing bad football, despite the press being in favor of the contrary, they’ve had a tough couple games, but are still a good team. Giving a good team more than a touchdown is usually and auto-bet for me, seeing the Saints struggle often in the last 6-7 weeks has me thinking this might be the week defeat becomes a reality.” And in my actual game write-up, I wrote something similar. I saw it coming, the crystal ball was clear for me in this one.

Chicago Bears (+10) @ Baltimore Ravens (Loss) The Bears really suck, I’m sorry for taking them, I just couldn’t buy the Ravens putting up huge offensive numbers two weeks in a row – I should have bought in – did I mention how bad the Bears are?

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (+7.5) (Winner) Well, the Bills made it close, and only because Tom Brady and the Pats offense was brutal after the first quarter. I don’t know what it is, the cold, the fact that they just aren’t clicking, maybe this team is just losing it, but New England has been brutal of late, and the Bills just barely took advantage and made it close enough for me to cover.

Arizona Cardinals (-11) @ Detroit Lions (Loss) After being up 17-0 at the end of the first half, the Cardinals came out with poop on their shoes in the 2nd half, and gave up 17 straight to Detroit in a disgusting display of football. They brought it together just enough to get a touchdown win, but they really jerked me around in this one.

Cleveland Browns (+2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (Winner) This game was a close one, it had Cleveland/Detroit type highlights, and once again the world became Joshua Cribbs’ oyster – the kid can straight make touchdowns, and a little piece of advice, don’t kick it to him this time…

Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ New York Jets (Winner) The Falcons had little to play for, they were eliminated by the time game-time rolled around, and the Jets still have playoffs aspirations despite losing this game – are you kidding me? the AFC is a mess! New York came out and tried hard not to lose, but probably didn’t run the ball enough. Atlanta’s D-front was game from the get-go, though, and that played a big roll in the Falcons all out road win – they don’t do that much.

San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles (Loss) The Eagles made the 49ers look silly, and I still think they are – Frank Gore’s running numbers were great, yet they only ran the guy 16 times – no good Mike, no good at all.

Houston Texans (-10) @ St. Louis Rams (Loss) The Texans just barely squeaked this one out. I don’t know how they compiled so many yards without scoring, but they did. Andre Johnson had nearly 200 yards receiving all by himself, on 9 catches, but not a single touchdown. Crazy. The Texans did not enough while still getting the win – underdogs win again!

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans (-3) (PUSH) The Titans let the Dolphins right back in it, and because of their dismal play and lack of late game aggressiveness, all I got was a push out of this one.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-12.5) (Loss) And the Broncos lose outright. What a joke. They had plenty of chances but just weren’t aggressive enough against a Raider team that came out playing hard. And it may end up being a loss that costs them a playoff spot -against Oakland – yeah, the Raiders – gross.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ San Diego Chargers (Winner) The Bengals were good enough to cover easily, and the Chargers needed that game winning field goal to win at home. Cincinnati is good folks, I keep telling you, don’t let their big loss to Minnesota sway you, this Bengals team is legit on both sides of the ball.

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (pk) (Winner) What can I say? Everything pointed the other way, but you knew the Steelers would find a way to not lose 6 in a row. With nothing to play for, except pride, they sure showed a lot, winning this game as time expired. This was the Lucky in LuckyLester…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-7) (Loss) Jim Mora should sell punching bags with his face on it, Seattle fans would buy those out for Christmas presents in one day.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Carolina Panthers (Loss) The Vikings were horrible – the Panthers showed up. Defensively, Carolina shut down a lot of Minnesota’s game plan, and in the end, this game turned into a Carolina blowout – making a lot of people wonder if Favre will continue to struggle in late-season situations.

New York Giants (-3) @ Washington Redskins (Winner) The Giants dominated the Redskins. I wondered if it was possible for Washington to continue their solid play, and came up with the answer, nope. As it turned out, in the rubber game, I was right on the money. New York was the much better team on MNF.

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 10 2009

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If you look hard enough, you’ll see basically two different weeks for my selections this time around. You’ll see my losses (Sunday Morning was tough for me) and my wins (the afternoon and night games brought me right back) – the bottom line is, it wasn’t a great week, but as I’ve done almost every mediocre week this season, I still finished out of the red. In 15 games this week I managed 8-7 and moved 1 more game over .500 for the season. I’m not a big fan of 8-7 weeks, double digit wins is kind of my thing, but when the tough gets tougher, a winning week feels good enough! Here’s how it went down!

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Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5): (WINNER) The 49ers didn’t try too hard to win, but with Jay Cutler throwing them the ball in the red-zone, they didn’t need to. A late field goal put the 49ers up 10-6, and a last minute interception in the end-zone (Jay’s 5th on the night) slammed the door shut on the Bears, giving me a nice cover to start my week.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Carolina Panthers: (Loss) “Okay, I get it, this is obviously a trap game for the public bettor. And I see what Vegas sees in this one, really, I do, and yes, I’m making my Falcons pick anyway. What does Vegas see, you ask? Well, they see a Falcons team that can’t stop the run, has lucked out lately, and hasn’t really played elite football consistently all season long. They are just 1-3 on the road, and that offense that was supposed to dominate this season – they’ve been out-gained in 3 of the last 4 games and their opponents have gained more yardage through the air in 6 of their last 7 – even Jake Delhomme and the Panthers out-passed Matty Ice and the falcons. But despite all this, the hype train is running at full speed.” I hate, hate, hate, hate when I see what Vegas is banking on and I go against it despite my better judgment. I hate even more how much worse 8-7 seems than 9-6. Anyway, tough one for me, I’d like to think it would have been different had Michael Turner continue the 250 yard game pace he was on, but I’ll never know. Dang Vegas! You won this one, but I’ll win the war!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5): (Loss) The Dolphins were out-played by the Bucs. That’s the last thing I thought I’d ever say this year, but it’s true. Luckily, they are the Bucs, and in almost every opportunity they’ll find a way to lose. Well, lucky for the Fins, not as lucky for me, I needed them to “really lose” and 2 points wasn’t enough. I still don’t know how the Bucs stayed this close.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16): (WINNER) Just by the hair on my chinny chin chin – and yes, that’s right, I do keep hair on my chin for situations such as this. Unless I shave soon, I might have to start saying “just by the hair on my necky-neck-neck” – but I’m planning on running into a razor sometime this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-6.5): (Loss) Oh, the Jets can disappoint a guy, that’s for sure. I thought Sanchez had his swag back, but apparently not. The Jets defense just didn’t show up, and the Jaguars somehow limited the Jets rushing attack. I expected neither of those things to happen. That’s how you become wrong, when things just don’t go the way you expected them to go.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (WINNER) This was a huge one for me. The Bengals once again held the Steelers out of the end zone most of the day (well all day this time) and Cincinnati did just enough to pressure Big Ben (and not let him get away from sacks) and despite losing their stud running back, the Bengals just found a way to win. Amazing. Regardless of the outcome, it was easy to see that 7 points was just too much.

New Orleans Saints (-13.5) @ St. Louis Rams: (Loss) Really? The Rams? How can a guy predict this stuff? Will the Rams play well next week too? Will New Orleans play like dump against a bad team? I can’t wait to search for those answers… The Rams were a 2 minute drill touchdown away from upsetting the undefeated Saints, but weird, they just couldn’t get it done when it mattered most.

Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Tennessee Titans: (Loss) Well, I liked this pick heading into the 4th quarter, that’s for sure. Neither team had scored much, it was tied, 7.5 was looking great! Then the Bills did what they do late in games, 24 points were scored in teh quarter, none by the crappy Bills offense (or their team, for that matter) and the final score makes me look like a clown… It was close! I promise! I know you didn’t watch this terrible game, but it was close!!! If you never watch the Titans because they have stunk all year, and last year they weren’t expected to be good so they got no National TV games, you have to tune into Monday Night Football this week – Chris Johnson is some other kind of fast – awesome to watch that guy run!

Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins: (Loss) I don’t know what happened here. Even if Orton goes down, you’d think the Broncos could find some way to beat this Redskins team. But no, Jason Campbell actually looked good throwing the ball at times on Sunday, getting some nice touch on short passes, and using his receivers’ strengths. If he had pocket awareness the Redskins would be decent. Alright, that might be going too far, but defensively, the Redskins stopped the Broncos all day long.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) The Raiders are not as good as Kansas City. Their coaching staff is a question mark, their players are wondering what they hell they did earlier in life to deserve this crap, and their owner uses batteries to make his black heart beat – as for the way the Raiders play football, their offense won’t do them any favors, that’s for sure.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-8.5): (WINNER) Papa Weimer tried to pick against me in this game, what a crazy uncle I’ve enlisted. Didn’t he listen to a word I said? The Cards are a terrible match-up for the Hawks and Seattle fans. As they’ve shown lately.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3): (WINNER) I almost always pick against teams that don’t look or play very good and still win. That was the Cowboys last week against the Eagles, and what do you know, they come out with a dud this time around… Green Bay completely shut down everything the Packers did, and when they did allow a little bust in coverage, they just out-toughed the Cowboys and caused fumbles.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ San Diego Chargers: (Loss)The Eagles have just fallen apart of late, and if they don’t get it together (now without Westbrook) they are going to fall right out of the playoff race (maybe not, there’s only 3 teams in the NFC with 6 wins). Philly needs to find a running game in a hurry, they sure didn’t find one against the Chargers.

New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) Most of the time, when you pick the winner of a football game, you also will win ATS. Especially when it’s not a double digit spread (I’m telling you, do the research and the math, you’ll see the numbers). This was one of those times where that didn’t work out. Many will blame Bill for his 4th down call on the 28, and I have to admit, I wouldn’t have done the same thing – but giving Peyton Manning the ball on about the 25 yard line (with a good punt) with 2 minutes and two timeouts might be a 50-50 chance to win. Getting two yards basically wins you the game. I wouldn’t do it, but I see why he did it. Either way, it looks bad, the Colts came back to win, the Patriots still covered. I won’t lose any sleep over it.

Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (WINNER) This one was eerie at half time when neither team had put up a point. Gross. I think I’d rather watch a quarterback competition between Jon Gruden and Jaws than the crap I watched on Monday Night. But, the Ravens managed a few points in the 3rd quarter and what do you know, one quarter of points was enough to oust the Brownies and show everyone exactly what they I said earlier in the week, “This team is bad, and last time the Ravens played them, the Browns were exposed for exactly what they are. A team with no offense, no defense, and a clown in a man suit acting as head coach. Dreamy situation. Yeah, I’ll take Baltimore.”

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 3

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Ugh… I struggled with my NFL Week 3 free picks, had some tough luck in some games and floundered while riding some big dogs. They say, let the big dog eat, well this week the big dog got eaten and I was there as desert. I had a tough time with Week 3, most definitely, but when I win big I take some credit, and when I struggle I own up – so here’s my review for 2009’s first loosing week.

Cleveland Browns (+13) @ Baltimore Ravens: (LOSS) The Ravens did revert back to running the ball a lot more in this one, unfortunately for the Browns that just meant a slower death. Cleveland did nothing, nothing at all. Brady Quinn was brutal, but Derek Anderson was even worse. I think being forced to coach Cleveland was a perfect punishment for Mangini’s failure to keep running the ball while heading up the Jets. I was thinking that Cleveland would get some big plays through the air, as Baltimore’s defense had been giving those up over the first couple weeks, and Baltimore’s running game would slow the game down, keeping this relatively close. Nope. The Browns got slaughtered and I started out with a loss.

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7): (LOSS) The Giant are a million times better than the Bucs, and I think I’m going to have to give up on my “The Bucs aren’t that bad” assessment. The Bucs can run the ball, and I thought Byron could throw the rock (and he did in the first couple weeks) but what Tampa can’t do is stop any offenses in the NFL. If they can’t do that, they’re going to really struggle to win a couple games.

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER)  “Marc Bulger is bad – the Packers put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the Rams are missing their first round pick starting offensive tackle, and they are the worst team in football despite those things.”Okay, so I don’t think it was fair that Marc Bulger went down early in this one, that luck of the draw alone gave them a chance to upset the Packers. St. Louis went all in against the run, and the Packers needed some really big plays to end up covering this one. I’d take this bet again though, you can bet on that. It’s not every day that the Rams get lucky and lose Marc Bulger to injury.

Kansas City Chiefs (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (LOSS) I really thought the Chiefs stood a chance in this one. I know Kolb has been winging it, but I thought KC could control the clock a bit on the ground and beat the Eagles in some blitzes – however, it seemed like Philly had their way from the get go, rather it was running or throwing with ease, and despite completing most of his passes, Cassel finished with under 100 yards passing. Weird. Another loss started the worrying. Penalties will kill a football team, just ask the Chiefs.

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots (-4): (WINNER) Neither team played really well, Tom Brady struggled with some throws, and his receivers struggled to catch some of them. Still, the Patriots found a way to move the ball, it’s this crazy idea called handing it off. Yes, Fred Taylor burst onto the scene, picking apart the Falcons porous run defense to the tune of a 100+ yard game and a touchdown. That extra threat allowed the Patriots to get in a better flow, and they won the game with relative ease.

San Francisco 49ers (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings: (WINNER) The 49ers deserved this game but Brett pulled a laser out of his bag of tricks and Greg Lewis had one of the best last second catches I’ve seen in quite some time to get the win for the Vikings. Brett’s throw was amazing, and the Vikings did just enough, in just enough time, to get the 49ers. Both these teams are very good, and like I said, very similar, which is why that 49er cover was good value.

Jacksonville Jaguars  @ Houston Texans (-3.5): (LOSS) This game was disgusting to watch. It was 31-24, which may make people think there was some good football being played, but when it comes right down to it the Texans and Jaguars were just about equal parts mediocre on Sunday. The Jaguars had this guy named Maurice though, and he produced 3 touchdowns. The Jaguars fought like a team that didn’t want to see 0-3 while Houston played like a team that expected to win without trying. Houston as a favorite, always a scary thing apparently.

Washington Redskins (-6.5) @ Detroit Lions: (LOSS) “I want to take the Lions, I really do,” Yeah, I was a bit worried about this one, but I just didn’t think Matt Stafford could get it done. In fact, he really didn’t, and the Lions were lucky to see Al Haynesworth go down really early so they could run some what effectively with Kevin Smith. The Redskins had the ball inside the five on numerous occasions, but they couldn’t punch it in, getting stuffed on 4th and goal from the 6 inch line twice. Detroit gets a win, I get a loss, that combination hasn’t happened in a long time.

Tennessee Titans (+3) @ New York Jets: (LOSS) Mark Sanchez just climbed to the Top 5 in my favorite player lists when he lowered his head at the goal line willing himself in for the score. Stud. But even after some freak stuff, a fumbled kickoff return, etc, the Titans found a way to be up 17-14. But New York found a way to win, and they sent the Titans to 0-3, and idea I thought would propel the Titans to victory. Wrong again. Tough week.

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills (+6): (LOSS) “This game is very hard for me. I know, everyone says ride the Saints, but I really don’t think they are as good as they’ve been playing – they are missing Pierre Thomas (or at least he’s not healthy) and the same can be said for Mike Bell. Reggie Bush is not a runner. Now I know everyone thinks that Brees can just throw every down and be putting up 50 points, but what has been so great about the Saints offense this season is that threat to run.” Pierre Thomas ended up blasting through the Bills defense, but if you didn’t watch this game, you have to understand how close it actually was. The 20 point win was actually a tough-nosed game. The Saints were up just 10-7 with 11:20 left in the 4th quarter and the Bills had a 3rd and short. 27-7, sure, I know, what and idiot for taking the Bills – but I was feeling pretty good about my selection to start the 4th – but I should have recognized in Game 1 against the Patriots, the Bills aren’t much of a closer. Still, they played pretty darn well against a pretty solid team, and I think they’ll have nice value moving forward.

Chicago Bears (-2) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) The Bears shouldn’t have won this game. Seattle played better everywhere, gaining more yards, making bigger plays, and they did it all with many starters out. Still, the Bears found a way to win, and that was with a couple big plays and just enough grind it out to get the job done. I needed this one.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5): (WINNER) “The Steelers’ offensive line is still brutal. The Bengals defense is a lot better than most people give them credit for.” That was enough for me, and it was enough for Cincinnati to get a big upset over the defending champs. This win was another good one. It always feels good when everyone you know calls you crazy for taking the Bengals at home against the Steelers, and not only do they cover, but they get the W. The may have needed a last minute touchdown, but they got the W regardless.

Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) The Broncos have a good coach. They will beat teams they should beat. It’s a team that will get a lot scarier as soon as Orton gets on the same page with one of the more talented WR duos in the league. Eddie Royal hasn’t gotten involved, and Marshall is still limited by Orton’s dink and dump style, but I think the Broncos will get more and more offensive as the season moves forward. 3-0 sounds good Denver fans, huh? You ready to run Josh McD out of town now?

Miami Dolphins (+6) @ San Diego Chargers: (LOSS) I know injuries are part of the game, but they screwed me this week. I thought Bowe would be big against the Eagles, and he didn’t suit up last minute. Andre Johnson got hurt right before halftime and though he stayed in, he was obviously effected as he didn’t catch a pass the rest of the game. And then there was this game, it was tied when Chad Pennington went down, and the Dolphins kicked a field goal to go up 6-3. With Chad Henne at the Q, the Dolphins couldn’t get anything done and his mistakes ate up field position and opportunities, making life a lot easier on the Chargers. I’m not saying I would have won all the games if guys didn’t get hurt, but I am saying it makes covering tougher. Another loss broke my bowling units.

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals (+2): (LOSS) This game was a joke. The Cardinals fumbled and threw this one away. I didn’t even want to watch the second half, but I did anyway, just long enough for Kurt and company to give me hope before doing dick after scoring on the first drive. Inside the 10 twice, and two turnovers and no points to show for it kind of grossed me out. Let me tell you what I saw in Indy, a team on a short week flying home to Indy then back accross to the country to play a Cardinals team that needed a win. But that didn’t matter because Peyton Manning does a lot with gifts, and Arizona was in the giving mood. Even after the tough start to the week, I thought I was going to get back to 8-8 when AZ was at the 7 yard line about to go up 10-0. But then the Cardinals happened, and of course then this next thing happened, and good bye to 8-8, hello to 6-10…

Carolina Panthers (+9) @ Dallas Cowboys: (LOSS) I LOVED my chances at a cover in this one, even late in the 4th after Dallas went up 13-7. All Carolina had to do was try to score and NOT turn it over deep in their own zone. Jake Delhomme (and mainly Steve Smith’s crappy route) one-upped me; not only did Jake turn it over with a pick deep in his own zone, but Terrence Newmann took the interception to the house for what was basically a sure thing loss for me. The Panthers were doing everything they could not to cover. DeAngelo Williams was running with ease on the Cowboys and they started throwing. They were holding and pushing off and all that good stuff, but they were still going to cover and get me a win anyway. Too bad, so sad, Jake’s bound to throw one pick-six, I should know that. This tough week got even tougher with this one, I thought I was on the right side, and the funny thing is, that doesn’t even make me feel better. Lets get back to winning, this REVIEW is DONE!

Week 1 NFL Picks REVIEW

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Let us just say that the first week of football picks was good for me – and I hope it was good for you too. I didn’t have everything go my way, but there was a lot of lucky stuff that luckily helped out my free football picks. I started with a big win Thursday Night, then busted out 9 more wins on Sunday, getting me into double digits before Monday Night’s double header. Where did I go right or steer you wrong? Follow me…

Tennessee Titans (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (WINNER) “a hard nosed game, that promises to be an ugly smash mouth defensive battle, has me thinking 6 is just too much. Last year’s Super Bowl winners usually aren’t very good beginners – write that down. Their offensive line isn’t great, and that’s enough for me to take Tennessee on opening night.” I read this game pretty well. I think the Titans outplayed the Steelers big time early, but they didn’t score enough on the chances they got as Rob Bironas’s missed field goals killed the. Still, the Steelers didn’t do enough early to capitalize on Tennessee’s missed chances, putting this game into overtime, and guaranteeing me, at the very least, a push. A short field goal for Pittsburgh won the game, and gave me a victory to start off the season as well.

Denver Broncos (+4) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (WINNER) Basically everything I said I thought about this game was right on the dot except for Knowshon being dynamic from the get go. Moreno looked like a college running back out there, not trusting holes and being a little rusty. But the Broncos defense was very good, much tougher and more aggressive than last season. Carson Palmer was healthy enough to play, but just as I said, not quite back to his old touchdown slinging self. A couple more weeks and I might be leading that bandwagon, but not quite yet. The Broncos got a late miracle to get a win in this one, but they were never in the covering question. Their stellar defensive performance locked that up.

Minnesota Vikings (-4) @ Cleveland Browns:  (WINNER!) Despite the public loving this bet, I believed as well. I didn’t bet the house, but felt pretty good going in despite the line feeling too good to be true. Like the rest of you, I got a win in this one.

New York Jets (+5) @ Houston Texans: (WINNER)  “Mark Sanchez is the real deal. He has great feet, watch him, his confidence in the pocket is awesome. That offensive line is one of the top 5 units in football, and I haven’t even gotten to talking about the Jets defense yet. They may be missing Calvin Pace, but with David Harris and Bart Scott at linebacker, and Kris Jenkins protecting them, I think this team has plenty of playmakers and ball hawks to make some big plays happen. The Texans won’t be able to run, and the Jets will. That’s why I’m taking the points.” Well the Texans couldn’t run, the Jets could, and Mark had great poise, confidence, and strength in the pocket. I think Pete Carrol was wrong, Mark made a good decision coming out of college.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-7): (LOSS) I thought this line was too good to be true in favor of the improved Jaguars – so I picked the Colts, basically over-thinking the entire thing. I had one too many thoughts on this one. The Colts as a big favorite in a game that was usually close – what was I thinking? Took my first L of the week in Indy.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (WINNER) I liked Dallas to win by double digits on the road here, and they did – but watching this game was a different story. I thought the Bucs played really well, much closer than the final score signified, and Leftwich was pretty solid as well. Caddy Williams was awesome, and there’s no single player I root for more than Carnell. The Cowboys used some really big plays to down the Bucs, but some luck easily could have turned this game around, and I can only imagine this being a tough loss for those that took the Bucs. That being said, I’ve lost my fair share of those ones, and I can’t feel too bad about getting the win here. Romo’s numbers were awesome, and this Cowboys team definitely has a lot of game breaking ability.

Miami Dolphins (+4) @ Atlanta Falcons: (LOSS) “I’m such a baby, the Dolphins make me cry…” This game wasn’t very close, it was very weird. Neither team looked good doing what they do. Atlanta didn’t run it that well, and Miami just couldn’t get anything going. It was a pretty ugly game, but Tony Gonzalez definitely made his presence felt. I thought all along that his “not going to be a big part of the offense, but whatever is best for the team” quotes during camp were a little ridiculous, and he was the leading offensive asset for the Falcons on Sunday. I didn’t get a very good feel for either of these teams on Sunday, so I’m back to the drawing board for both.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (-13): (WINNER) I’m really, really lucky to get a win in this one. There’s not much else to say about it. Todd Haley knows what he’s doing. His team is going to be a good one in the next couple years, no doubt in my mind. A late touchdown and another late add-on put the Ravens two scores up, but KC played better than that, and I know I could write a tear-filled Bad Beats column about this one if I were on the Chiefs side of the fence. But like I said, I’ll take a win, as ugly as a win can be.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (+1.5): (LOSS) I love the Eagles this season, really, I do. But I won’t love them against one of the best rushing attacks in the league until they do something or prove something with that front seven. They couldn’t stop the run this pre-season as I watched opponents run freely over the Eagles. Philly should put up a lot of points, and I fully understand that the Panthers have no interior defensive line either – but the Panthers will fully take advantage of that while the Eagles instead decide to throw the ball 4 out of every 5 downs… Just in this match-up, I like the underdog, hometown, returning best record in the NFC. Call me crazy. The Eagles just have too much hype for me.

Detroit Lions (+13) @ New Orleans Saints: (LOSS) This is another game that was a heck of a lot closer than people might think. If Stafford doesn’t toss a million interceptions, the Lions cover easily. New Orleans toyed with the rookie, and maybe, just possibly, showed me they might have enough defense to make some noise this season. Or maybe it was just the rookie? We’ll see. All I know is that Drew Brees has amazingly quick feet in the pocket. The way he evades the rush, resets his feet, and fires all at the same time is very impressive. So many times, that one extra move bought him just enough time to get a TD throw off. Impressive. I still like the Lions as a double digit dog,  but maybe I’m giving Stafford too much credit. He has yet to impress me as an NFL player, but I still like the Lions to cover their fair share of games this year.

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: (WINNER) The Niners dominated a lot of this game, and were never really in a situation where I was worried about covering. Anything can happen any time, don’t get me wrong, but I liked the 49ers for lots of reason, one of which was their toughness and will. The Cardinals defense was much better than I thought they’d be, and looking back at it, that makes sense. Dockett is a beast in the middle, Dansby is elite at LB, and they have a pretty strong secondary as well, not to mention plenty of other good defensive players. However, just like I said, the offensive timing and production was bad most of this game. Where was the gun-slinger deep throws and chances? Warner spent more time throwing crappy short passes than anything else. If it was SF’s scheme, then kudos to them – whatever it was, the Niners pulled a nice upset and gave me another W.

Washington Redskins (+6.5) @ New York Giants: (WINNER) I don’t think the Giants are scary enough offensively to bust the Skins through the air. Washington will get more pressure on opposing offenses this season as Haynesworth really is that good. Al will also help ease the pain against one of the best offensive lines in the league, and I think Washington stacks the line against the Giants in this game. I think 6.5 is too much in a game that looks to have very few scoring opportunities.

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-8.5): (WINNER) “Its hard for me to be too excited about the Rams, I called them the worst team in football last season, and despite the Lions hideous record, I stand by that claim. There was no team that was more pathetic than this Rams team a year ago. They no longer have Orlando Pace, but Alex Barron and Adam Goldberg at the edges instead. They don’t have Torry Holt or Isaac Bruce, but Laurent Robinson and Donnie Avery. Steven Jackson is still there, but unfortunately still is Marc Bulger. The guy kills more drives by hanging onto the ball than any QB I know. The defense is aging and hurting (like Leonard Little) and failed draft picks over the last couple years are coming back to haunt the new regime. That being said, it’s still 8.5 in Week 1 against a Hawks team that hasn’t proven to be beastly quite yet. I’m going on record and saying this spread is too high. It’s bad value, and I don’t know what I’m thinking by taking the Hawks anyway. It’s one of those times where I just have that feeling…” Hey, I went with my feeling despite reading a bad value. The Hawks are back, and looked very good after a shaky start to the game. I expect Housh to me more involved as the season moves forward, and I even think Julius will continue to put up solid numbers, especially as the offensive line gets healthy. I didn’t expect this big of a win, but the Hawks defense absolutely shut down the Rams. A big Hawks win made me undefeated in afternoon games. Lets keep that going!

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5): (WINNER) This game was just plain weird. Cutler and Rodgers were off, Jay more than Aaron, their were lots of drops, neither running game looked good, and while both these teams have talented defenses, I’m not sure they’re that good. Still, the Packers had more balls – that’s right, they took more chances, played the smarter game, and in the end beat the Bears, something they haven’t done all that much over the last five seasons. A close cover, might have gone either way, luckily Jay Cutler did a lot of Jay Cutler type things. Going into Monday Night, I rocked double digit wins.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-10.5): (LOSER) I was pretty impressed with just about everything the Bills did. Even the last play, Leodis just gave too much effort. He was stupid to take the ball out of the end-zone anyway, but once he got it out, he took a big hit, stayed on his feet, and just got stripped barely by the 3rd guy that hit him. His extra effort probably lost the Bills the game. One thing is certain, Richard Seymour’s going to be missed on that defensive front. He was a beast in the Raiders game, one of the best players on the field. Jerrod Mayo is injured as well, and I’m not sure Pats fans will like the diagnosis tomorrow. The Bills should have won this game, but Tom Brady is a winner. Nothing was more perfect than Tom walking up the field with 1:18 on the clock and ticking: he was just relaxed as could be, looking like a guy walking on the beach. He knew. The Pats obviously didn’t cover, and I take my 5th and final loss of the week.

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (+9): (WINNER) “This line will likely move to 10 if you wait. Oh well, I still like the underdogs in this divisional match-up. I know, the Chargers get to show up and win, they can sleep through the season and easily take the division, and they have more talent in 5 positions than the Raiders have all over the field. I don’t care. What I care about is that the Raiders will be able to run enough to keep themselves in it.” The Raiders are going to win some games this year. They gave the Chargers all they could handle and more. JaMarcus Russell needs to be a lot more accurate if the Raiders want to get out of the cellar, but there’s lots of talent on this Oakland team. Zach Miller played like a stud, and McFadden/Michael Bush looked good as a powerful 1-2 punch in the backfield. Oakland pulled ahead with a ballsy 4th and 15 TD pass late in the 4th, but Phillip Rivers and company drove down the field and Darren Sproles polished off the victory for San Diego. It was much tougher than many expected. Just about how I thought it would be, but then again, that’s why I call ’em! 11-5 this week, folks. Lets keep it going in Week 2!!!

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 17

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Not a terrible way to end the season, not a big winner, but a winner nonetheless! The playoffs are just around the corner, and I’ll certainly be getting my picks out for those games by mid-week as well. As for week 17, it was good for some, that’s for sure – but it was a heck of a lot worst for most of those teams with playoff dreams… This is how it went down.

Oakland Raiders (+14) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (WINNER) Well, the Raiders upended the Bucs playoff hopes, opening the door for the Eagles to run the Cowboys and take the 6 seed. Like I said, Oakland does their best work against smaller defense, not unlike the Bucs. 14 points was way too many, ha.

Detroit Lions (+10.5) @ Green Bay Packers: (WINNER) Well, they couldn’t pull off the win, allowing one or two too many big plays down the stretch, but this game was close, and the 10 points difference writes a different story. Either way, the Lions covered for me.

Dallas Cowboys (+2) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (Loss) I was dead wrong here. The Eagles came to play, and everything worked out for them to own the final playoff spot. Do they keep their go for it attitude and make a run at the NFC crown or will they parish into their play not to lose alternate personality? Good question, I know, but they kicked some Cowboys tail this Sunday! I lose.

New York Giants (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings: (WINNER) The Giants should have won this game, but they didn’t really go for the throat and they let the Vikings hang around. Either way both these teams were in the playoffs, with the same seed, but Minnesota might come out of this one with a little more hope. AP had a big day for the Vikings. But I still won this one easily.

Chicago Bears (+3) @ Houston Texans: (Loss) “I love the Texans. They play very tough at home, and I see them throwing the ball around against the Bears secondary – but how about the will to win? The Bears have that. I hate betting on teams that won last weak where I thought they should have lost. That’s the Bears to a T. But what about the will?” – Here’s my answer – the will isn’t strong enough to go against my betting rules. When I learn that I’ll win more.

Carolina Panthers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints: (Loss) Well, this one was close. The Panthers wanted a suer thing bye, but the Saints weren’t about to roll over for them. Drew Brees was on his game, finishing just shy of Marino’s single season yardage record. The Siants pulled it out, but by just enough to make me a loser, 2….

St. Louis Rams (+15.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: (WINNER) I had this one right on the button – I hope the Falcons keep finding ways to win with a big playoff game coming up next week. What a rushing attack in Week 17, Turner and Norwood did work.

Kansas City Chiefs (+3) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (Loss) The Bengals really learned to play some defense as the season moved forward. If they keep that up next year, they might be alright. The Chiefs didn’t impress me much, and as it turns out I may have expected a little too much out of a 2 win team.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens (-12): (WINNER) I was right on the button with this one too. The Ravens are a terrible match-up for the Jaguars, or at least this Jaguars team. Baltimore’s tough nosed, grind it out style, with the ability to get first downs through the air, was just too much for the Jags.

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Indianapolis Colts: (Loss) Weird game. The Titans didn’t do much, and it looked like the Colts turned into the team I thought Tennessee was. Both teams had their 2nd teamers in there, but it was the Colts that dominated from the get go, and they rode their momentum all game long.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-10): (WINNER) The Steelers lost Big Ben in a meaningless game, but hopefully he’ll be alright for the playoffs. They dominated the Browns, though, putting up 31 and shutting out Cleveland’s anemic offense. I needed this one.

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ New York Jets: (WINNER) “If the Jets’ play calling is stupid enough for them to lose at home to Denver, in San Francisco, and then in Seattle in 3 of their last 4 games, then it is probably bad enough to choke this one away too. I don’t know about the average football mind, but if I had an old quarterback that got respect on his deep passes, one that was having shoulder issues, I would probably run the ball more than I threw it. If the Jets did that, they’d have won against the Hawks last week. They would have beaten the 49ers as well. But Man-Jina loves to throw the ball, regardless of the auto five yards Thomas Jones is getting and the great back-up speedster they have in Leon Washington. All things being equal, that stupidity should get Miami into the playoffs.” As soon as the Jets are down at all, they immediately turn to throwing the ball every single down. Their play calling sucks. Miami was the better team by season’s end, and that’s because their coaching is much better. There you have it. Hooray Miami! Hooray me!

New England Patriots (-6) @ Buffalo Bills: (WINNER) It was windy, it was nuts – the Patriots held on to the ball as long as possible and made some great moves that kept Buffalo out of the end zone. They won a big game, finished 11-5, but still found themselves up and out of the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-6): (WINNER) “I have to pick this game as if the last couple weeks didn’t happen to the Cardinals. The Cardinals are 6 points better than Seattle, especially at home, and especially after getting slammed each of the last two weeks. They have to get it together now or never, and I think their offensive firepower will be tough for the Hawks to handle. Big tough receivers aren’t the easiest on the little coverage guys in Seattle’s secondary.” There you have it. And it was Kurt and his crew of big receivers tormenting the Hawks secondary all day long, especially late. Larry Fitzgerald had a big day, catching two touchdowns in the process. Yhatzee!

Washington Redskins (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers: (PUSH) For the second straight week the 49ers found a way to win. They were down, but not out, and it might be Big Mike. I hope Singletary is exactly what the 49ers need to get back to respectability. Winning a bunch of games down the stretch probably helped them out a ton heading into next season. I didn’t win or lose, just pushed all the way to my money back on this one.

Denver Broncos (+9.5) @ San Diego Chargers: (Loss) This game was awesome – if you hate Denver. I thought the Broncos would put up more of a fight, but this was consistent with the entire season, I once again had trouble predicting the Broncos. That damn Splinter is always confusing me.

9-6-1 to finish – 23 games up on the season…

Free NFL Picks REVIEW: Week 12

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The second week in a row resulting in a vig enforced slap in the face. Still, I can’t be that sad, the number of losing weeks so far this season are few and far between. Still, this is the second week in a row with 8 wins and 8 losses as I’m basically pushing my bike down the street. This is how the week went down. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-10): (WINNER) This game was actually pretty close, but kudos to the Steelers for working hard to cover the spread. It seemed like the refs were all over the Bengals, taking the underdog in the Pitt game for the second straight week – but Tomlin was ready to fight to the end this time around, and fight the Steelers did. It was nice to start off the week with a W. 

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (-4.5): (Loss) Alright, so the Titans got smacked around a little bit by the Jets, but people can stop saying that the Jets are the best team in football because they beat the undefeated Titans. Joke. That’s not how sports work, the only time that really matters is in single elimination post season play or in college football when a top 2 ranking is on the line. In the NFL regular season, anybody can beat anyone else any given week – see Cleveland stomping the Giants earlier this season. The Jets win, and I lose, that’s what matters here I guess. 

New England Patriots (+2.5) @ Miami Dolphins: (WINNER) I didn’t see a Dolphins sweep of the Patriots, and reasonably so. This game was closer than the final score, but no matter how close the game was, it seemed like Matt Cassel was doing anything he wanted to do, and the Pats were in control of this contest. Amazing how the weeks have changed, and how Matt’s new salary next season keeps going up and up. 

Chicago Bears (-7.5) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) Matt Forte had his hands all over this win – he tormented the Rams, a team that can’t tackle and can’t block – oh, and can’t seem to put anything together to get open anywhere. They are bad, and the Bears smacked around a bad team on Sunday. 

Houston Texans (+3) @ Cleveland Browns: (WINNER) Sage didn’t throw for 350, but he had a nice game against a week Browns secondary. But the real deal was Cleveland’s offense that so closely resembled a hobbled and anemic pigeon. Looking for something, anything, and just hobbling around aimlessly while doing so. Somebody tell the Browns that Kellen Winslow is their best receiving option. New coaching staff in Cleveland next season – that’s a guarantee. 

San Francisco 49ers (+12) @ Dallas Cowboys: (Loss – barely) And everything went the Cowboys way in this one – every single stinking thing. The Niners had turnovers and close plays fall to the side, everything went against them, and they didn’t cover by a point. Ridiculous. I’m taking the loss, but I was definitely on the right side in this game. If the 49ers convert one of their early 1st and goals then I cover with ease. Those bastards! 

Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) THe Bills made easy work of the Chiefs and they did it by turning Trent Edwards into Vince Young. Nice work. KC really struggles defensively and the Bills needed this win. All those things were obvious on Sunday.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) The Bucs tried to bring out the chest pain, but believe it or not, I still had a lot of hope when I was down 17-0 in this game. I even said to my buddy, “Call me crazy, but I still have Tampa winning by two touchdowns if you want to make that side bet?” He didn’t accept, and rightfully so, because the Bucs came back to even further embarrass the pathetic Lions. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+2) @ Baltimore Ravens: (LOSS) “There’s a lot about Baltimore I like here. Their toughness. The fact that they played their worst game of the year last week. Lots of things. But,” Damn the but, and that’s about where I took it on this one. I felt alright down 3 with McNabb playing his worst half of the season, figuring he’d turn it around in the second half, but I knew I was in deep when Kevin Kolb came out on the field. I hate watching the Eagles. I lost this one big time.

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) “When teams force the Jaguars to throw, the Jaguars don’t win.” Write that down somewhere and save it for a rainy day. 

Carolina Panthers (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: (Loss) The Falcons continue to impress me. The Panthers actually ran the ball pretty well, but Atlanta was having none of it, and continued their elite play while at home this season. This Falcons team might be very good for a very long time. 

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-9): (Loss) I hate the Broncos more than I hate the Eagles, Seahawks, and Raiders (combined). How this talented team gets smoked by the freaking Raiders, in Denver, in a rivalry game, is absolutely beyond me. What a joke. I definitely was wrong about this one. 

Washington Redskins (-3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: (Loss) Another loss by a point or less. Thanks Seattle for getting that 4th quarter score. I wonder if Seattle will get back to being good when Holmgren leaves? I know this, there’s no way they’ll be as soft as they are now. Still, the Redskins couldn’t pull out a cover for me in Seattle – that half point was the end of me. 

New York Giants (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals: (WINNER) The Giants are really good. Arizona was close in this one. It was a very good game. But the Giants have it defensively where the Cardinals don’t, and that’s a big deal. 

Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers (-2.5): (loss)  The Chargers played like absolute pusses late in this game, and the Colts took advantage of a dumb timeout call that nobody talked about on the Sunday Night broadcast. With 1:30 left on the clock, after coming up just short on 3rd down, the Chargers call an immediate timeout to think about their decision. Nice – save Peyton Manning and company 30 seconds. That’s always a brilliant idea. The Chargers lose by a field goal, and my overtime chances of a win went right down the drain. Brilliant. 

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: (Loss) The Saints continue to hit me where it counts. I’m pretty sure they check to see if I’m taking them or not, and they play accordingly (opposite of course). This game was close in the first half, but then Drew Brees played like Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers played like Ryan Leaf – it was tough sledding after half time.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 11

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Well donkey balls – so much for 11 in Week 11 – but I didn’t lose 11 either, so my strong season didn’t take too big of a hit. Interested in seeing if I was helped or screwed by the idiot official that made up a rule so that the Steelers wouldn’t cover the spread? With the way I worded it, I bet you can guess – that joke call pushed me on the week – Eight wins, eight losses, but as it turns out I should have been 9-7… This is how my weekend went. 

New York Jets (+3.5) @ New England Patriots: (WINNER) Well I was right about the outcome but wrong about the way it would happen. So much for a low scoring affair, these Thursday Night games really don’t see a lot of defense played – but Kris Jenkins did do work against the Pats run game and basically shut it completely down. Hence Cassel throwing for 400 yards and 3 touchdowns. Anyway, the Jets win in overtime and I win outright. 

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons (-5.5): (LOSS) And the streak of losses begin to roll on. The Falcons didn’t really dominate on the ground, as the Broncos are really picking it up with their back-ups in there. Denver played pretty good football and Jay Cutler walked the ball down and threw a lazer for the win. Roddy White dropped a game tying touchdown pass, but it wouldn’t have covered for me anyway. The Falcons lose their first game at home, and I lose too. 

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-10): (LOSS) Interesting. This game proves that anything can happen in football, and from week to week, anything will. That’s all I have to say about this loss. 

Houston Texans (+10) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) “When Houston can run, they’ll be alright.” Admit it, this game was a lot closer than most of you thought, and that 6 point Colts win got me a win with the Texan side of this game. Houston ran all over Indy, as Steve Slaton had a huge rushing day and Ahman Green found himself in the end zone twice – probably by accident, but still. This is a game I really needed. 

Chicago Bears (+5) @ Green Bay Packers: (LOSS) The outcome of this game really surprised me. The Packers killed the Bears – but I’m not willing to say that the Pack is better than Chicago – just one of those games I think. Tough week for me and THOSE games. 

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5): (LOSS) The Chiefs actually played pretty well and had a nice chance to win this game. 4-5 dropped passes killed a normally sure handed KC team and some questionable play calling put them in a bit of a bind. They ended up losing by 10, which wasn’t enough to make me a winner, but I think the Chiefs are a solid betting group moving forward. 

Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) @ New York Giants: (LOSS)  The Giants are very good. The Ravens had played close with everyone, been in every game, and done very well against the run. The Giants basically made them look foolish, they won by 20, and this game wasn’t that close – did I mention that the 3 Giant runners did just about everything they wanted to do? Well they did – and Brandon Jacobs took his 11 carries for 77 yards and two touchdowns – that guy is a man. I lost again. 

Detroit Lions (+15) @ Carolina Panthers: (WINNER) Detroit played even better than the final score indicated, and besides the fact that they are Detroit and anything can happen, I was never worried about this cover. How bad has Jake Delhomme been lately? Luckily for him, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart both plowed past 100 yards with ease. It was a dominate ground attack by Carolina, but not enough to cover against my pick here. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3): (WINNER) The Bucs won in an ugly game. Jeff Garcia was legit, probably as accurate as he’s been all year, and the Bucs did just enough to oust the Vikings and cover for me here.

Philadelphia Eagles (-9) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (LOSS) Damn the Eagles! Damn ties! Damn Philly basically making every game a must win situation because they couldn’t take care of business against the 1-8 (now 1-8-1) Bengals. Gross game. 

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5): (WINNER) A round of applause for my man Mike Singletary. If you don’t think this guy will get his players to win, you are going to be tricked. 

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) The Cards tried to lose this one, but Kurt and Anquan and Larry Fitz were just too beastly for the Cardinals. A 26-20 win wasn’t pretty, but it was enough for the public to reap the benefits here. 

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) The Titans made it close for most of the game, but Kerry Collins looked like he had enough of 8 and 9 in the box, so he tossed more than a couple passes to Justin Gage, and the undervalued wide receiver made the most of it. The Titans won by 10 in Jacksonville – and the public rejoiced! 

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4): (LOSS 0- Kind Of) Not that Steeler bettors deserved to win this game, but they should have. Some sorry excuse for a ref took a correct call and turned it around when it didn’t matter to anybody but people trying to cover spreads, and millions of dollars went to the books – what a joke. If you saw this game, you know what I’m talking about. If you didn’t see this game, you will certainly here about an error that cost bettors millions of dollars. 

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+2): (LOSS) This game was gross. Had to stop watching it at half time and go shoot hoops with the townies. But Dallas pulled it out, despite poor performances by everyone this side of Marion Barber. (MBIII is a BEAST). The Redskins tried hard not to lose and it definitely showed in their selective play calling and lack of chances down field. This is a Dallas secondary that plays very well close to the line of scrimmage and very poorly down field. Come on Jim Zorn! 

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ Buffalo Bills: I like the Browns in this one. I think the Bills will have a hard time rushing against the Browns front line, and I think Brady Quinn gives the Browns enough accuracy to stay on the field that much longer. He didn’t look as great as everyone likes to say he did, last week against a bad Broncos defense, but he is accurate enough – and that’s huge for the Browns. This should be a close one, like most Brown and Bill games, so those 5.5 points should come in handy on Monday Night.

Free NFL Picks REVIEW: Week 10

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I only took 13 games because there was no line out for the Colts/Steelers game headed into the weekend. But, I still had 10 wins as a goal, and sure enough, I stomped the yard in Week 10, busting out double digit wins and losing just 3 contests. (One absolute robbery when the Broncos but up Black Jack in the 4th quarter on Thursday Night). Anyway, 10 wins folks, this is how the hammer hit nails.

Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns (-3): I took 21 points on the chin in the 4th quarter, and the Browns were still driving to push the spread. I’m sorry folks, I’ll take this loss, but I will credit one hell of a bad beat on Thursday Night. I picked this one on the spot, and I would take the Browns -3 at home against the Broncos and win 80% of the time. This just happened to be one of those 20%. Pooey nuts.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) @ Detroit Lions: (Winner) My analysis was on point again in this one – go back to my Free Picks article if you don’t believe me.

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Chicago Bears: (Winner) The Titans struggled a bit in this one, and Rex Grossman (despite boos and bad press) played pretty well. However, it wasn’t enough, and watching this game I never was too worried. The Titans cover and still have zero losses this year.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-3.5): (Winner) “I know this isn’t Tom Brady’s Patriots, and these aren’t J.P. Losman’s Bills, but New England hasn’t lost to Buffalo since 2003 – What was going on in 2003 last time Buffalo got a W against New England? Well, Tara Reid might have been considered good looking, Matt Ryan was playing high school football somewhere, and this great country was just about to give President George W. Bush one more run and complete destruction… That’s a while ago. If you do the math, carry the three, that’s 9 straight wins for the Pats. But Buffalo is better this year, no doubt bout that, so I’ll look for some more conclusive evidence one way or another. The Pats have one loss at home this year, to Miami in the day Ronnie Brown ruled the earth, but I’m not ever sold based solely on homefield business. I need some more. I pointed out last week that New England plays pretty well against teams that do one thing well (either pass or run), but the Bills seem to do both things with some success, so I have no push there. The Patriots should have won last week against the Colts, but a couple dropped passes (Gaffney’s for sure) and that ultimate dump penalty late (thank you Dave Thomas, now get back to pimping Wendy) gave the game to the Colts. I still think Matt Cassel is playing good enough football, and the Bills are coming back to reality a bit. Buffalo’s only “good” win came against a 3-5 San Diego team. That’s right, 5 wins, one of them at home against San Diego – the other four against St. Louis, Seattle, Oakland, and Jacksonville. You sold on the Bills on the road against a Patriots team that just lost a game they should have won? Me neither. I’ll take the Pats.” This analysis was good enough to relive. I win again!!!

Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) @ Houston Texans: (Winner) I wasn’t too fond of this game, but it looks like I had the right idea. Baltimore ran well and stuffed the Texans rushing attack. Houston didn’t come to win this game, and win they did not.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+1): (Winner) I win again!!! This one went like I thought it would, but I expected a little more from the Saints defense. What a transformation in Atlanta, huh?

St. Louis Rams @ New York Jets (-8): (Winner) You bet. Rams can’t play ball when the run is stuffed. Consider it stuffed. Thomas Jones took advantage of one of the worst run defenses in the league. I win again!

Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins (-9): (Loss) The Hawks came to play, and Miami wasn’t in a hurry in this one. I lost, but it was one of few my kind hearted readers – one of few.

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: (Winner) This game didn’t go like I expected, but Adrian Peterson did crush Green Bay’s front 7, and 8 for that matter – and got the Vikings a 1 point win. Aaron Rodgers was under pressure all night, and those two safeties really came back to hurt. But who do the Vikings really get to thank for this win? Try the man calling plays in Green Bay. With a 55 yard field goal in sight and about 1 minute and 10 seconds left on the clock, the Packers run 2 run plays that get about 3 yards – leaving a good kicker a 51 yard shot at the win. Do the Packers know that when a field goal gets over 48 yards the percentage of good kicks drops in half? Idiots. They had plenty of time to make the field goal easier, and Mason just pushes it. It was good from 48, I’m telling you. Anyway – hahaha – I win, you lose for being stupid.

Carolina Panthers (-9) @ Oakland Raiders: (Winner) Despite trying as hard as he could to get the Raiders to cover, Jake Delhomme wasn’t allowed to play defense – thank God!!! The Panthers covered behind a couple nice runs by DeAngelo Williams and some good defense against a terrible offense.

Kansas City Chiefs (+15) @ San Diego Chargers: (WINNER) “I have to take the Chiefs getting more than two touchdowns against a Charger team that has one win by more than 14 all season long. The Chiefs are bad, but they aren’t Oakland bad… Regardless of talent, these teams always play each other tough, it’s just the way it is. In fact, not one game in the last 10 meetings has the winner won by more than two touchdowns. Not once.” I must say, in a week where favorites did the dirty work, I had this one right on the nail folks.

New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (Winner) You bet – just about how I expected it to go, but the Eagles were better than I thought. Still, their inability to run the ball against good defenses might be the end of them.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-9): (Loss) Well, the 49ers were 2 yards away from ending my latest survivor pool run – luckily I pulled it out. Unluckily, so did all those people that took the Chargers. Regardless, this one was too close for me to cover, ending my Week 10 wins at 10 – Eleven Ws in Week 11 anyone?

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 7

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Push me on a swing. Push me in the water. Push me in front of a train, just don’t push me in sports. I’ll tell you, coming out of a week even is almost as bad as losing. You don’t get to be right, but you don’t get the glory of being tricked either. Just flat out .500. This is how my .500 week held on tight. 

Tennessee Titans (-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) “Thanks books. The Broncos, sure, the Chiefs can magically beat a team like Denver from time to time. Denver throws the ball a lot and hardly relies on the run to even keep teams honest. Offensive football teams like that can lose to bad teams because of freakish mistakes and miscommunication. Teams that pound you into smithereens on both sides of the ball, like Tennessee, don’t lose to bad teams that don’t do anything well, like Kansas City. The Titans are fresh after coming off their bye week and I expect them to get close to a shutout in KC.” Well 34-7 is one play away from a shut-out, and the cover was just as easy as I could have imagined. I hope you followed me on this freebee. 

San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (+1): (WINNER) The Bills roughed up the Chargers offensive line, holding San Diego’s star running back (LT) to just 41 yards rushing on 14 carries. Fred Jackson (9 for 33) and Marshawn Lynch (19 for 70) rushed for over 100 yards and Trent Edwards picked apart the Chargers secondary completing 25 of 30 passes for 261 yards. The Bills were just tougher and the Chargers looked like they played tired. Weird. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-3): (WINNER) “I also love betting against teams that won their game but got beat on the field of play – that’s Minnesota two weeks in a row.” But it took a lot of Viking mistakes to finish themselves off, that’s for sure. Minnesota probably should have won this game, but they couldn’t punt, they had penalties, they fumbled, and they were just out of sorts. These teams put up 80+ points of offense on Sunday, odd thing coming from two offenses that don’t usually spark up the scoreboard. The Bears won though, and I’ll take it. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (WINNER) “The road team always wins this match-up and while it’s normally pretty close, I just don’t think the Bengals have much confidence, leadership, sense of understanding or hope.” I’d say the score, 38-10, kind of explains what I was saying here. The Steelers did anything they wanted, and Mewelde Moore ran like Lola on Sunday. Big win here. 

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (-3): (LOSS) I liked the Dolphins to match the Ravens physicality – I apparently was wrong to like that. Ray Lewis and his helmeted avengers put a stop to that wildcat offense and took advantage of some Dolphin turnovers – it’s tough to lose the ones you like, but that was the case here. You never feel quite as bad when the chick that you don’t really like dumps you, right, but when the hot brunette that does that thing with her tongue dumps you – well, you get the picture. No? Right, that’s because I’m being obtuse. Anyway, onward march! 

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3): (WINNER) “Unlike AP and the Vikes, I do think the Panthers will be able to run against the Saints, and remember what I said, when the Panthers can run they are a top tier team in the NFC.” I’m telling you, take my advice on these Panthers for the rest of the season – if they can run the ball effectively, they are a top notch team. Just that threat opens up so many things for them, gives the defense more rest, and there probably isn’t a team they can’t beat when running the ball. Cap them like that and you’ll win some money. 

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants (-10): (WINNER) “Tougher call than you’d think, but I found a line that got down to 10 and thus I’ll run with New York. After playing some very good football for a few weeks straight the Giants were bound to falter a bit on the big stage. That doesn’t mean they are done. They were a little overrated, but they are still a top team in the league. I think their pressure and run-stuffing prowess will give them this game. O’Sullivan isn’t good enough to throw 30 times against the Giants and not get intercepted multiple times. Mike Martz will ignore that fact and thus lose this game by default.” Right? You bet – I have hit these Giants and these 49ers right on the head. The Giants won by 12, and it was just enough to cover, but it was closer than you expected. Why’d the Niners lose? Oh, I know, Mike Martz dropped O’Sully back 35 times, he only got to throw 28 times, and that was still enough for 2 picks. The other times he dropped back? Sacks galore and 4 fumbles, all lost. Keep it up Mr. Martz, opponents can’t thank you enough. Jackass. 

New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland Raiders: (LOSS) Well, the Raiders won. I don’t know how this happened. The Jets needed to go to Thomas Jones even more. Oakland played better D, and maybe they’ve found something. No, I doubt it. 

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ St. Louis Rams: (LOSER) Shame on me for taking this disfunctional family – well, at least I get to watch this bad reality TV show – who’s next on “The Football team is WRONG?” – unbelievable, these guys. Steven Jackson had enough of my “running like Shaunna Alexander” comments, and he went berserk on Cowboy defenders. What to think of this? Hmmmm…. 

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Green Bay Packers: (LOSER) I really took this one in the face. Green Bay rocked Peyton’s world with confusing tactics and pressure. Do the Colts suck or what? I can’t quite figure them out. 

Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans (-8.5): (LOSS) Welcome to the bad-beat club. The Lions got obliterated to start this game out, and the Texans just held on tight. It almost cost them, but it did cost me. This was the first of two tough ones I should have won. 

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5): (LOSS)  This one makes me puke a little just thinking about it. The Hawks didn’t have 100 yards of offense midway through the 4th quarter. Wallace had about 30 yards passing and Julius Jones was at about 12 yards – both were leading their teams in the respective categories. But the Bucs were fine with “just winning” and that thinking got me a loss as the Bucs won by 10. DAMN IT!!! 

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) @ Washington Redskins: (WINNER) The Browns were overrated to start the season and the Redskins were definitely underrated. That being said, I don’t think the current difference between these two teams is more than a touchdown.” This game was gross and at one point the Derek Anderson was 4 of 16 passing. Anderson had completed just as many passes as Braylon Edwards had dropped. Still, the Browns cover and I win. Weird. 

Denver Broncos (+3) @ New England Patriots: (LOSS) I was wrong – as it turned out, some early turnovers killed anything the Broncos tried to build up and Sammy Morris showed how really bad the Broncos front 7 is. Do you think they’ll be better or worse without Champ and Boss Bailey? Sign me up for any runner playing them from here on out. And the Pats – are they going to start being more consistent or is it coin flipping time?

All that leaves me at .500 for the week – piss. I’ll take it like a man.