Okay, so this is my first picks article ever, and while I’ve said many times that this stuff is easy, we’ll just have to see. I’ve done alright on my own card this year, so Lucky asked me to put my thoughts (that were making me money) down to paper. Since I’ve made most of my money taking favorites, I usually bet 3-5 favorites a game, LL told me to just go with what’s working and select my top five favorites per week (plus he says, Papa has the dogs). He told me that it was okay to go opposite him, which makes me even happier (because like I always say, anything worth playing is worth beating your friends at). Here’s what I got for week 11.
Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Baltimore Ravens: It’s funny, Lucky got these guys as a dog (though just a point) earlier in the week, I get them here as a favorite, and I have to admit, I’m equally happy. I don’t see a point making the difference. There’s no doubt that the Ravens have some confidence, and they love when nobody gives them a chance, giving them a shot in this game. But Peyton has owned the Ravens, and this isn’t even close to Baltimore’s best secondary they’ve had over the years. This one seems easy enough.
Green Bay Packers (-6) @ home vs. San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have played a lot of close games, and they can run it, but the Packers are definitely a trouble-match-up for San Francisco. They put a lot of pressure on young receivers with their physical corners, and they don’t run the ball that much on offense, so who cares if the 49ers shut down the run well. San Francisco did not play to win last week against Chicago, and they are lucky to hold on against a bad team. I like Green Bay to win by a couple touchdowns.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) @ home vs. Buffalo Bills: The Jaguars have been great of late, and they are feeding their best player the ball. The Bills are a mess, fired head coach, terrible offense, new quarterback, injury ridden defense – nothing much to like there. Jacksonville is better than given credit for.
New England (-10.5) @ home vs. New York Jets: I just don’t see the Jets hanging in there twice in a row. The Patriots weren’t playing well to start the season while the Jets were playing on cloud 9. That hasn’t continued, on either side. The Pats have been back to domination on offense, their defense has been stout, and the Jets have fallen hard in both areas. Injuries and youth have not served them well. Plus you have the Pats coming out fired up, looking for redemption and to put last week’s last second loss to the Colts out of their minds. I expect a Patriots killing.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Chicago Bears: Lucky’s right about this one, the Bears just aren’t good. Neither of these teams have been stellar, but the opportunistic Eagles defense against Jay Cutler – lets just say Va-Jay-Jay Cutler will be making that shame face early and often. I’m looking for him to wrap up the passing title this week, passing to opposing teams that is. Gimmie the Eagles.