Arse's Five Favorites: Week 13 NFL Picks

I’ve got 5 more favorites this week, and you’re lucky, because I’m rocking a 8-1-1 record in the two weeks I’ve done this (check the records), and I’m only doing this because I’ve been winning all season long. It’s bound to end sometimes, but will it fail me this week? We shall see… Here’s my Week 12 review and Week 13’s picks.

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Week 12 NFL Picks REVIEW:

(W) – Indy -3 @ Houston: So what, they fell down 17-0 early, and they did what they do and won anyway – that’s why I’ve been making cash off these little horsies.
(W) – Seattle -6 @ St. Louis: The Rams couldn’t take advantage of the sand all over the Seahawks collective offensive game plan. Oh, and Justin Forsett beat the Rams all by himself.
(W) – Minnesota (-10.5) @ home vs. Chicago: The Bears are a joke and the Vikings are one hell of a team – this favorite picking this seems to be too easy.
(W) – Ravens (-2) @ home vs. Pittsburgh: No Ben Roethlisberger helped, but I almost think the Steelers probably still should have won, if they just didn’t play so careful. Oh well, my luck.
(W) – Saints (-1.5) @ home vs. New England: The Saints were the better team and Tom was off his game. It was easy enough.

WEEK 13 NFL Picks:

Philadelphia (-5) @ Atlanta: I have to take the Eagles here, how can I not? They need this win desperately and they have their starting quarterback playing, a solid defense, and their starting running back has been out all year. I think they win by two touchdowns.

Houston Texans (-1) @ Jacksonville: You can get the Texans as 1 point dogs, but my book has them as a 1 point favorite. I think they are the far-superior team, and that’s enough for me.

Cincinnati Bengals (-13) @ home vs. Detroit: The Lions are terrible and the Bengals are going to pray on that mistake-prone offensive attack. Plus, the secondary is so shaky that I know Palmer will take a couple chances.

New England (-3) @ Miami: I have heard the Patriots always struggle in Miami – I dont’ care – the Patriots will win by at least a touchdown.

San Diego (-13) @ Cleveland: The Chargers score a lot of points, through the air is their ticket to success, and they don’t waste too much time pounding the football. That will kill Cleveland as their only chance to stay close is if their opponent slows down the game.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick: The Philadelphia Eagles have proven they can’t be trusted, and while the Falcons are definitely seeing some tough times with injuries to key players, their back-ups have shown they can win in a tough spot – but can a guy really go with the Falcons to win at home against a healthy Eagles team that needs all the wins they can get? A team that has struggled to win against low-level opponents? A team that has should have realized by now that they can’t come in without focus? Against a defense that can’t stop the run or pass? Keep reading…

The answer is no, despite seeing the Eagles go on the road where they have already lost to the Oakland Raiders and struggled against the Washington Redskins (twice), and barely beat a bad Chicago Bears team – I can’t see the Eagles struggling here. Atlanta doesn’t bring enough pressure to seriously disrupt Donovan McNabb, the Eagles should also find room to run, and defensively the Eagles are just far superior to the Falcons.

You add in the injuries, the two key players that helped turn this team around last year, both unlikely to play this Sunday, and I have to stick with my first impression of this game, the Eagles have to win this, they should win it, and they should do so in rather convincing fashion.Three isn’t enough for me to take Atlanta – to be happy about taking the Falcons, I’d need more than a touchdown.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Week 13 Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Week 13 Pick: I think the bettors are falsely in love with the Buccaneers, because as of now, the public percentage rests with the Buccos. The line keeps moving in the other direction however, and when I’m taking a spread that has that kind of backward crazy round about movement, I find comfort in being on the side I’m on here. The public likes Tampa, the smart bets seem to like Carolina, and thus the line moves opposite the masses.

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What the bettors see in Tampa Bay is pretty simple, and I have to respect it at lest a little. They see a team that has won against the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, all of which were quarterbacked by their prized rookie, Josh Freeman. The kid has shown he can make all the throws, and while he hasn’t been deadly accurate, he’s shown an ability to make more plus plays than minus – that’s something Jake Delhomme hasn’t been able to do for the Panthers.

But maybe now that Delhomme is likely to miss Sunday’s game, or at the very lest, likely to be less than 100% as a thrower, the Panthers will do what they should have been doing every single game this season, throwing less than 20 times while running more than 40. Against the Buccos, I have to like that percentage, especially with the running backs and offensive line push-power the Panthers have shown. With Delhomme out, I actually like Carolina more. There’s only a couple situations like that in the league (see Oakland, Detroit, and Buffalo).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-6)