Tag Archives: Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview

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Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview: I think that, when this line came out, the line was reflecting a general prediction that the Colts were going to start resting starters. But when Indy announced that everybody that is healthy will play, all hell broke loose and the lines shot in another direction, and all the while most books don’t even have the game as an option. It’s tough when it’s the Thursday Night game and there’s no real injuries, and still Vegas can’t pull their collective heads out far enough to go with a proper line for the dang thing. But now, Wednesday morning early, the game is a 3 point spread in favor of the Colts, and while it’s no gimmie, I have to like Indy on the road here.

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It’s not Indy as much as it’s Jacksonville, I just can’t trust them. They’re good enough to challenge the Colts – nothing they do is flashy, but they have enough solid play offensively to put up some points, and holding an Indy team that isn’t playing at full strength, for rest or minor injuries, seems possible. Even with their unexciting defense the way it is. But how can you trust the Jaguars? They’re way up, way down, unimpressive at home, terrible on the road, barely beating bad teams, getting killed by a handful, and they just don’t play smart football.

In the end, I trust the Colts more than the Jaguars, and think their football intelligence, as much on the sidelines as on the field, will get them their 14th win over Jacksonville.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars:

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Week 13 Free Pick

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New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Week 13 Free Pick: The New York Jets have had an up and down year, or should I say it started way up and has since crashed fairly violently down. Now, they are still just 5-6 and though they have some work to do, they could get hot and possibly see a playoff spot appear before their little green helmets by years’ end – it’s a long shot, but it’s not like a Buffalo Bills longshot. That being said, the Bills have played some decent football since that Dick… Jauron, got fired. So will the jets press on and with their second straight games for the first time since September 27th? Or will the Bills find a big win against a division rival for the second time in as many weeks?

Well, the Jets lost this one last time out, and if they lost to the Bills yet again, that would make them finish the season with a 1-5 record with-in their division, the only win coming at home against New England in Week 2 of the season. But I think the Jets can walk away with victory here. They have a better defense, and a better running game – if they know what’s good for them, have any idea whatsoever, then Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene will both end up with more runs than Mark Sanchez has pass attempts.

Now the Bills have shown an ability to do well against offenses where all they have to do is focus on on aspect, and that will be the case here, but playing well and winning are two different things. I think the Bills play well, and this stays close, but I like the Jets to play mistake free football and win.

New York Jets (-1) @ Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers Week 11 Free Pick

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Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers Week 11 Free Pick: John Fox, here’s to hoping you blow it again! This week’s Thursday Night Football game on NFL Network pits two of last seasons’ most impressive teams against each-other for a game that promises to have some serious running back action. Ronnie Brown is out for the Dolphins, but don’t think they won’t keep their attack rush-centric, they still have Ricky Williams (who has been awesome this year) as well as running QB Pat White. But I’m thinking this injury might make them more balanced. week in and week out, the Dolphins run more than they pass, and that’s probably the right thing to do (John Fox, pay attention you dope), but Chad Henne has shown me he can throw the ball all over the field. Against a Panther team that is probably getting ready to see the Dolphins carry the ball 40 times, Henne might just be able to hurt them with his arm.

The Dolphins are set up well to hold the Panthers out of the end zone. They give up big passing plays, but are stout against the run, and have made big plays on defense when quarterbacks get fidgety with the ball. Jake Delhomme loves to play around with the pig skin. Both teams have won 4 of their last 6, but Carolina has been beaten in every game they’ve been out-rushed in. I like Miami’s D to allow that to happen.

If the Panthers came out and ran the ball 40 times, I would give them the cover here, but John Fox has repeatedly tried to break defenses at their weakest point, managed to ignore his own running game for long portions of winnable games, and generally has a dumb look on his face the entire time. I think Miami’s the better team, this game should be close, 3.5 points is good enough for me!

Virginia Tech Hokies vs East Carolina Pirates Free Pick

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Virginia Tech Hokies @ East Carolina Pirates (+13) Free Pick: First of all, the Pirates are underrated. They run the ball well and have competed in every game they’ve played in this year. How do they go about doing that? Well, they can run the ball effectively against pretty much anyone. They’ve out-rushed four of their last five opponents, going 4-1 during that stretch.

I’m not saying they’re going to come out and out-rush the Hokies, but Virginia Tech has had a lot of trouble with teams that can run the ball. In fact, in each of their 3 losses the Hokies have been out-rushed. In four of their five losses against the spread, they’ve been out-rushed. Like I said, they struggle against opponents that can run the ball, not just in the win/loss column but against the spread as well.

The Pirates have stepped up their defensive pressure over their last 5 games, not once allowing more than 21 points. The Hokies have been out-played in 3 of their last 4, luckily straight talent got them the win over Duke, and they played well against Boston College. 59% of the public likes Virginia Tech.

The Pirates played and won last Thursday Night against Memphis, while Virginia Tech is playing on short rest, having only 4 practice days between games after losing to North Carolina last Saturday. East Carolina has covered in each of their last two meetings with the Hokies, including their first win since 1992, a 27-22 win over Va Tech last season. I’ll take the home team and the points.

Miami (Ohio) Redhawks vs Temple Owls Free Pick

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Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (+14) @ Temple Owls Free Pick: Alright, it’s your lucky day, the Redhawks have moved from a 13 point dog to open, to a 14 point dog when I made my pick, to a 17 point dog right now. That’s a huge move, and it might be because 67% of the public likes the Owls. It also might be because the Redhawks have their fair share of injuries while Temple is basically injury free, healthy as a night owl, if you will. It also might be because people are realizing Miami’s 1-8 record to start the season.

I have some numbers going against me, definitely. The Owls are 12-4-1 ATS in thier last 17 home games, and this one will definitely be a home game. The Redhawks are 0-5 on the road this season, while Temple is 3-1 at home. Temple has beaten Miami in each of the last two seasons despite being a touchdown underdog in both games. Temple has more yardage on offense while allowing fewer yards on defense.

You could say they are the favorite. But 14 points? (17 points for you if you’re betting now)? The Owls haven’t been a two touchdown favorite since 2001. Now, they covered in that game, but as you can see it has been a long time. It’s almost 2010.

The Redhawks have played quite a few close games considering their one win record. And you never know, after winning their first game last week, they might be considered on fire respectively. I know they’ve won four of their last five ATS – that’s something. They’ve been out-rushed in every game but one, but over the last two weeks the Redhawks have gotten their passing game working – I like that to continue on way to a cover in Temple.

Cincinnati Bearcats vs South Florida Bulls Free Pick

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This Thursday Night free football pick has two undefeated Big East teams squaring off in what should be one hell of a game. The spread is tight, the teams really fly around well, and the Bearcats have climbed all the way to 8th nationally without one single win against a ranked opponent – I guess that’s what 5-0 and some big passing numbers will do for a school. But how will they go this Thursday?

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Cincinnati Bearcats (-2.5) @ South Florida Bulls: This game is tough, no doubt, you have history, you have this season, and you have Thursday Night Football, all three things are working their magic on my decision here. The Bearcats are 9-1 in their last 10 games, losing on New Years Day to the Virginia Tech Hokies 20-7. South Florida is 5-0 on the season, but late season breakdowns have been their MO. The home team has taken the win in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these Big East foes, and Cincinnati has covered the last 5. The Bulls’ star quarterback, Matt Grothe, is out for the season, while Tony Pike has been very busy making quite the name for himself while throwing for just under 300 yards per game in Cincinnati this season. This game is likely to be very close, as neither team looks likely to budge on Thursday. The Bulls have a little more speed on defense, but Tony Pike and company can put up some points offensively. What has me taking the road dog in this one is South Florida’s Thursday Night history. It’s tough to come in and pay mid-week, a lot of teams struggle with it, and the Bulls just happen to be one of those teams. They’ve been embarrased two straight seasons by big Thursday Night upsets, and I think Cincinnati just happens to be the better team this time around. I’ll take Cinci to do some damage on ESPN’s Thursday Night Football.

Free College Football Picks: Week 6

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It’s hard to imagine that we’ve plowed through five weeks of college football already, but sure enough, we step right into Week 6 this time around for my free picks. Five weeks, lots has happened. During my 10-3 Week 5, Oklahoma effectively removed themselves from title-contention by losing to the Hurricanes in Miami over the weekend; so much for coming back to win a title, eh Bradford? Well, this week is sure to have more upsets – there are some huge games on the horizon. Notre Dame plays again, so there should be more terrible calls doing over unfortunate Irish opponents. I’m one game under .500 heading into the week, here goes my predictions.

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Nebraska Cornhuskes (-3) @ Missouri Tigers: The Tigers are at home, rated higher than the Cornhuskers, and still a 3 points underdog. Something’s weird here. What is it, you ask? Well, the Cornhuskers are the better team, but since they’ve lost once already (a single point loss to Va Tech) and Missouri is undefeated, the Tigers hold the higher ranking. Forget that Missou has struggled against powerhouse programs like Bowling Green and Nevada, and forget that Nebraska has smoked everyone besides their one point loss to the Hokies. But here’s the deal, it’s not like Nebraska has beaten anybody good either. Whomever takes this game now has one solid win on their resume. I think that’s Nebraska – they’re more ready.

Auburn Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks (+3): There’s a certain time where hype hits down week and down week hits reality. That might be this time around for the Tigers. After finally smashing into the Top 25 after a 5-0 start to the season, a solid Razorbacks team hosts Auburn in an early Saturday Morning showdown. Now the road team has won 6 of the last 7 between these two programs, but I’m taking the home dog here. I think Arkansas puts up enough points, and sooner or later the luck runs out on the Tigers. Two tough home games in a row probably takes it’s toll here.

Michigan State Spartans (-4) @ Illinois Illini: I don’t think the Spartans are good, or even worthy of being favored on the road, this line doesn’t have great value or anything, but the Illini are bad. Even after a big win over their “in state big brother” program, I still think the Spartans have enough in the tank to get a double digit win in Illinois.

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Oregon Ducks @ UCLA Bruins (+6.5): Now this game will almost certainly go to 7, it’s already up a half point and still 70% of the public bets like the Ducks despite being nearly a touchdown favorite on the road. UCLA is better than they’ve played, and still have just one loss, one which came against a very physical Stanford team. So, they should be better prepared for the Ducks rushing attack. The Bruins have a very good defense, one of the more underrated units in the Pact 10, and while Oregon has been very good over the last three weeks, I think they have trouble against the Bruins. The spread is ridiculous, I know that much.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi Rebels (+6.5): The Rebels are a very talented team that had a lot to lose last time they played on National TV, they ended up showing exactly how to play as poorly as possible while losing to South Carolina on Thursday Night a couple weeks ago. But they are talented, and now have basically nothing to lose as a big home dog hosting the powerhouse Crimson Tide. I like the Rebels to turn it around and at the very least, keep this one close. I’ll take the home dog and the points.

Indiana Hoosiers (+7) @ Virginia Cavaliers: I think Indiana is better than Virginia. I’ve seen both teams play and still think Indiana is a little underrated. I’ll take them and the points.

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Duke Blue Devils (+15) @ North Carolina State Wolfpack: I think Duke has one of their best teams ever, now that being said, they are still not all that good. That being said, neither is NC State. Duke’s coming off a pretty good game against Va Tech last week, and I think they’re a nice value getting more than two touchdowns. The last three games in this match-up have been very close contests, and 6 of the last 7 have been NC State wins, but by a touchdown or less. I think that trend continues, if Duke doesn’t upset outright.

Arizona State Sun Devils (-20) @ Washington State Cougars: Fade the Cougars. Listen, the Sun Devils should put up 35-42 points on the Cougs. The Cougs won’t be scoring more than twice. That’s a cover. That fits with my #1 rule in betting college football, fade the cougars.

Florida Gators (-9) @ Louisiana State Tigers: The Tigers shouldn’t be a Top 5 team, they’ve been lucky to win 3 close games this year. I’m thinking Tebow is back, if he is, this is a 20 piecing by the Gators. I like Florida a lot.

Arizona Wildcats (-3) @ Washington Huskies: I like the Dawgs, they just struggle against teams that run the ball with physicality. The Wildcats won’t stop running the ball, no matter how much the Huskies bait them. Do the Dawgs have a chance? Sure, they have good coaches and one of the truly special players in college football, Jake Locker. But the Wildcats have the better team, and they should run the ball early and often to oust the Huskies.