Tag Archives: Free NCAA Football Picks

FedEx Orange Bowl: Iowa Hawkeyes VS Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick

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FedEx Orange Bowl: Iowa Hawkeyes VS Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: The Hawkeyes had one hell of a run, and were quite possibly one starting quarterback injury away from a perfect season, which is something the Oklahoma Sooners might also say, but the Hawkeyes made it to 9 wins before running into that unfortunate event. For a team that wasn’t even thought of in the Pre-Season Top 25, the Hawkeyes beat up on a few of the best teams in the Big 10, winning by double digits in both Penn State and Wisconsin. They lost just two games, but it ended up being 2 of their last 3. They lost by 7 at home against Northwestern, a game in which Stanzi (their QB) got hurt. They lost their next game by 3, in overtime, @ Ohio State. And defensively, the Hawkeyes are easily one of the Top 10 units in the nation. They fly to the ball and keep everything in front of them. Very underrated.

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But I don’t think you can completely stop the Yellow Jackets, as Georgia Tech has put up plenty of points against good defenses, and put up plenty of rushing yards against solid defensive fronts. If I believed the Hawkeyes could score with the Yellow Jackets, I think they’d be an easy pick here, but with Richard Stanzi playing a football game for the first time in two months, I just can’t see him being accurate enough to march the Jackets down the field.

He wasn’t a super-accurate passer to start with, as his 56% completion percentage and his 15-14 touchdown to interception ratio insists, but after two months off, most of that time getting healthy, it’s tough for me to see him torturing the Yellow Jackets’ secondary enough to keep this game close. Tech doesn’t play great defense, so anything is possible, but the Yellow Jackets are my pick to win and cover.

Iowa Hawkeyes VS Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-5)

Nevada Wolf Pack vs New Mexico State Aggies Pick

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Nevada Wolf Packs (-31.5) @ New Mexico State Aggies: What can I say? The Nevada Wolf Pack have scored at least 35 points in six of their last 7 games. They’ve won 7 straight after starting the season 0-3. They currently have one of the best college players in their conference leading their team at quarterback, a kid that completes 61% of his passes, has thrown 14 touchdowns, has rushed for over 1000 yards, and leads his team with 14 rushing scores. Aside from that, which is certainly something, the Wolf Pack have 5 players that have carried the ball 19 or more times, and possess a yard per carry average of 6.3 or higher. Their top two rushers (RB, Vai Taua and QB, Colin Kaepernick) have both rushed for over 100 yards, and both average better than 7.8 yards per rush. Dirty.

After a rough start to the season, Nevada is firing on all cylinders. Over the last two weeks, the Wolf Pack have outscored their opponents 114 to 21. That was San Jose State and Fresno State becoming the new bottom to Nevada’s cleats. They Wolf Pack have out rushed their last 8 opponents, rushing for at least 140 more yards than every team they’ve played during their seven game winning streak. I just can’t say enough about how impressive the Wolf Pack have been and how unimpressive the Aggies have played.

Against like opponents, it doesn’t look much better for the Aggies. Fresno State beat New Mexico 34-3, Nevada beat Fresno 52-14. The Aggies lost to Hawaii 6-24, Nevada beat Hawaii 31-21. Louisiana Tech beat New Mexico 45-7, while Nevada beat Louisiana Tech 37-14. There is Utah Sate, a game that both New Mexico and Nevada won by 3 – but I’m thinking outlier there. I’ll take Nevada and one of the Nation’s best rushing attacks.

Oregon State Beavers vs Washington State Cougars Pick

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Oregon State Beavers (-30.5) @ Washington State Cougars Pick: The only thing WSU has going for them is the terrible weather Pullman is almost guaranteed to have this time of year. Then again, that only helps them because scoring could be down. But if it’s down any more for them, they probably don’t even put a light up in their section of the scoreboard. A shut out by a mediocre Beavers defense? It’s very possible.

Oregon State, on the other hand, is guaranteed at least 5 touchdowns. They’ve done so in 4 of their last 5 against the Cougars, they’ve put up at least 30 against solid Pacific Ten defenses like Cal, USC, Stanford, and Arizona. They have two of the most dynamic players in the conference, and they just happen to be brothers. They have out-rushed 8 of the 10 opponents they’ve played this year, and they are just freaking good.

Washington State has scored 7 points or fewer in 4 of their last 7 games. They have allowed at least 40 points in 5 of their last 6. Against a team with similar skills in the run game (Oregon) the Cougars lost 52-6. Now, Oregon State’s defense might not be as good as Oregon’s, but they can really throw the ball, and the consistent accuracy of Sean Canfield does not bode well for the Cougars’ chances of covering Saturday.

The only “good” team WSU has lost by fewer than 30 points too is Stanford, and that was way back in Week 1 when the Cardinal hadn’t figured it all out yet. When you add all these things to the ever-growing injured list the Cougars are sporting, and the fact that their starting QB has a good chance of missing Saturday’s tilt with the Beavers, 30 points just doesn’t seem like too big of a spread. I’ll take the BEAVE!

North Carolina State Wolf Pack vs Virginia Tech Hokies Pick

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North Carolina State Wolf Pack @ Virginia Tech Hokies (-19.5) Pick: The Wolf Pack don’t post much of a problem for the Hokies, at least not based on the type of teams that Va-Tech usually has trouble with. Obviously talent is far superior at Virginia Tech, but that’s not always a recipe for success. The fact that pass-happy, poor-running teams don’t seem to get much done against the Hokies is what means much more to me. Tech has shown, if you can’t run it with success, they’ll put you to rest.

The Wolf Pack don’t run the ball poorly, it’s just not a huge part of their offense, and they just don’t do it against good defenses. They have been out-rushed in  3 of their last 4 games, the Pack that is, and they’ve lost those 3. They’ve only lost 2 games by 20 points or more, against Clemson and Boston College, two defenses that don’t allow you to run with ease.

The Hokies have been out-rushed 4 times this season, they are 3-1 in those games with a 16-15 win over Nebraska in the other. North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Alabama (their 3 losses) all had the ability to run the ball with power and efficiency. That’s the link of the Hokies’ three losses. The Hokies have beaten 4 teams by 24 or more. The Hokies are playing their best defense of the season, and offensively they are leaning more and more on the run-game. That’s good for them.They win by 3+ TD’s in this one.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan Wolverines NCAA Pick

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Ohio State Buckeyes (-12) @ Michigan Wolverines NCAA Pick: One might argue that Michigan has played solid football against some tough teams, and earlier in the season that might have been true. This is a Wolverines team that beat the ranked Fighting Irish and almost upset an Iowa team that started 8-0. But Iowa played a heap of close games with just about everyone, and I think Notre Dame has been exposed for what they are, exactly what Michigan is, a good team in name only.

The Wolverines have lost 4 straight and 6 of their last 8 games, leaving them at 5-6 and needing this win badly, as it will send them Bowling. But after all the talk about extra long practices and “volunteer” team conditioning, does this Michigan team really want to win and go through another month of practice under coach Rich Rodriguez? Can they really build on their last 4 losses enough to come out and play well against the Rose Bowl bound Buckeyes? Well enough to win? Against a Buckeye team that is easily playing their best football of the season down the stretch? That’s hard for me to buy into.

Ohio State has beaten Michigan five straight times, their longest winning streak in the storied history between two of College Football’s finest programs. The Buckeyes have covered 4 of those 5. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites over the Wolverines.

Now it’s true, nothing of substance is on the line for the Buckeyes here, and a situation like that could have a good team slow down a bit coming in – but against Michigan? Against their top rival? I don’t think so. I’ll take the Buckeyes!

Boise State Broncos vs Utah State Aggies Free Pick

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Boise State Broncos (-24.5) @ Utah State Aggies Free Pick: Like I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, the Broncos are out for blood and embarrassment every time they lace them up and walk onto a football field. They are a GREAT team and have almost no chance at a National Title. They know that if they put up a stinker, even in a winning fashion, against a team like Utah State, their dream scenario has no chance of coming true. Just look at what they’ve done lately. They’ve won by at least 38 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Last week’s destruction of a solid Idaho team just shows what they can too when given a chance to prove themselves.

This week it’s Utah State – an underrated Aggie team that hasn’t lost by more than 18 points all season long. Now, they haven’t played a team like Boise State, but still, you have to think they’d be a decent value considering their ability to stick within a couple scores of every team they’ve played.

Against great small school teams like BYU and Utah, Utah State held their own losing by 18 on both occasions. There’s a chance that happens again here – but with their winning-margin being important, I know Boise State will do their best to drop 50 on Utah State. With how focused and sound their defense is, I don’t see the Aggies scoring more than 3 touchdowns – even that’s a stretch. 52-17 is about what I expect. The Broncos are too good. The fact that you can get this game for -23 at most books makes Boise even more likely to cover. 45-21 covers for -23 bettors. I need even more.

California Golden Bears vs Stanford Cardinal NCAA Pick

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California Golden Bears @ Stanford Cardinal (-7) NCAA Pick: This come right down to me thinking Stanford is 2 touchdowns better than Cal on any given day. They pass the ball much better, run it better, are more physical, control the clock like it’s their job, and play a better brand of football with less room for error. Basically, Yahtzee! I feel like the Cardinal as a touchdown favorite is a glorious thing that everyone should get in on – so does 67% of the public, but so what, this one shouldn’t be too close.

Stanford hasn’t been favored in this in-state rivalry since 2001. That’s a long time ago folks, as scary as that sounds. Cal is 5-2-1 ATS over the last 8 meetings with Stanford, they’ve won 6 of the last 7 outright. Just for the sake of letting you know, the under has won in 6 of the last 7 match-ups.

Before last week’s win over Arizona, the Bears had been kicked around by each “good” team they’ve played. That means USC (30-3), Oregon (42-3), and Oregon State (31-14) in a game that wasn’t even that close. Their win over Arizona says something, definitely, they have a little fight in their pads, and that’s good for Bear fans. But this Stanford team is too good for any of that business to matter.

Unlike Arizona, the Cardinal should just bruise and batter the Bear defense just like USC, Oregon State, and Oregon did. 38-20 is my prediction.

Colorado Buffaloes vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick

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Colorado Buffaloes @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14.5) Pick: The road team has won this game each of the last 4 times they’ve played dating back to 2001. Colorado is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with winning records. But Colorado is also 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games, as they’ve been a bad road team for some time (0-5 on the road this season). Oklahoma State is 5-2 at home this season, and they seem to beat up on bad teams. 3-7 Colorado fits that description. The Cowboys are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with losing records. They just out-muscle the lesser teams.

Colorado has lost 3 of their last 4, including a 10-17 loss @ Iowa State. The only teams they’ve beaten this year, Wyoming, Kansas, and Texas A&M. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 ATS. Oklahom State is 7-1 in their last 8 games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6, and they are a good team. That last part is key.

This spread has gone way up in since opening at -13.5. I got it at 14.5 on Monday Morning, and if you got my newsletter, you might have gotten to the books before it zoomed all the way up to 19 in some books. Colorado has only lost 1 game by 20 points or more – so I’m not so sure Oklahoma State is a great value all the way up at 19 – I’d probably make that a no-bet. But I think 14.5 still has some value. Two touchdowns and a field goal is about what I predict, with a chance of getting even uglier for the Buffaloes.

Connecticut Huskies vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Free Pick

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Connecticut Huskies (+6) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Free Pick: The Huskies luck just has to turn at some point. When you think about the talented teams they’ve had to play over the last handful of weeks, and the way they’ve played close with in every single loss, and then the terrible times they’ve had to go through as a team, one would have to believe some sort of justice is on the way for the Huskies. When would be a better time than against an Irish team that has lost their token luck?

Not only is the timing right, but the Huskies look like the better team to me. I know it’s being played in South Bend, and I know a lot’s on the line for the Irish and their head coach’s job – but so what, the same can be said for the last two weeks, and no wins came from those games.

Who has Notre Dame beat this year? Washington State, Washington (with BS calls to aid them to overtime- the luck of the Irish, if you will), Purdue, Michigan State, and Nevada. They also beat Boston College, easily their best win of the year. The Irish have won 2 games by more than a touchdown. Washington State (quite possibly the worst team in College Football) and Nevada (to open the season).  Thanks for the scheduling, but I’m not impressed.

To be honest, I’m more impressed with UConn’s losses than Notre Dame’s wins. North Carolina by 2. Pittsburgh by 3. West Virginia by 4. Rutgers by 4. Cincinnati by 2, 45-47. The heart break hasn’t stopped for the Huskies since their teammate was murdered. But they are a good team. They fight with the best of them. I like them to continue their stellar play and turn their recent tough-luck around.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Boston College Eagles Pick

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North Carolina Tar Heels @ Boston College Eagles (-3.5) Pick: The Eagles are an unranked favorite against the 25th ranked Tar Heels – that has been a betting point for me over the years, and I like it again this week. But this game is going to be close, let’s face it, but not close enough for me to take the Heels and that valuable extra half point. So, something has to look good to me, but what?

How about the fact that Boston College is 6-0 at home this season. Sure, they haven’t played any world-beaters at their home turf this season, but this is a good home team, a team that makes very few mistakes, a team that is 5-0 ATS at home, with wins over Central Michigan and FSU – two teams that can put up some points. Also pulling me over to the Eagles side is North Carolina’s battered offensive line. 3 offensive linemen got hurt in their last game against Miami, and if a couple of them don’t play, or aren’t 100%, the Tar Heels could struggle to run the ball and keep pressure off of T.J. Yates.

Speaking of Yates, the talented junior and Carolina QB is having a tough season at the helm. He’s thrown just as many interceptions and touchdowns (10) and has averaged just over 5.5 yards per attempt this season – that’s not a good number, in case you didn’t know.

I just think these teams are very even, and the home field is definitely a huge advantage for the Eagles. That’s enough for me.