Tag Archives: Free College Picks

Central Michigan Chippewas VS Troy Tojans: GMAC Bowl Pick

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The lesser known of the final two college football games of the season, but this one might very well be the more exciting game of the two. Both of these teams have shown the ability to fill it up on the scoreboard. And a great deal of that offensive success comes from their two quarterbacks.

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Dan LeFevour, the more know of the two, has college football’s all time passing/rushing/receiving touchdown mark, totaling 147 scores in his 4 years starting at Central Michigan. The dual threat has been one of the best college football players in the game during his 4 seasons under center, and capped off his career with a 71.2% completion percentage, 27 passing touchdowns and 14 rushing scores this season while leading the Chippewas in rushing as well; another great year for the 11-2 Chipps.

But many say Troy’s Levi Brown has the bigger upside of the two, at least as far as the NFL is concerned. He passed for 3,868 yards this season (800+ more than LeFevour) with 22 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions. Brown has a very strong arm, and the Trojans averaged just .1 points per game less than the Chipps’ high powered offense. Both these teams can score the football.

As far as the gambling world is concerned, both these teams were book beaters, going 17-7 combined against the spread. The Trojans were 8-4 ATS while the Chippewas were 9-3. Troy averaged 33.1 points and 478.5 yards per game, 16th and 3rd in the Nation. Central Michigan finished 33rd with 416.9 yards per game, and one slot ahead of Troy in scoring with 33.2 points per contest.

Troy is just 1-3 all time in bowl games, beating Rice in the 2006 New Orleans Bowl. The Chipps are just 1-4 in post-season bowl play, also winning in 2006, against Middle Tennessee State in the Motor City Bowl. This is the first time these two teams have played.

And now for the reason why I’m taking Troy. I know I should have learned by now that betting against Superman Dan LeFevour isn’t the best bet around, but I like the Trojans in this one. They have really played good football over the last 8 games, losing only to Arkansas and beating up on just about every team in their path. Central Michigan will be their best win of the season, if they can pull the upset, and I think they will. LeFevour hasn’t performed his best in Bowl games, and it’s possible that might follow him into his final one. The Trojans boast a better passing attack than CMU has seen all season long, and I think that air attack will get the best of their secondary.

Central Michigan Chippewas VS Troy Trojans (+3)

Boise State Broncos vs Utah State Aggies Free Pick

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Boise State Broncos (-24.5) @ Utah State Aggies Free Pick: Like I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, the Broncos are out for blood and embarrassment every time they lace them up and walk onto a football field. They are a GREAT team and have almost no chance at a National Title. They know that if they put up a stinker, even in a winning fashion, against a team like Utah State, their dream scenario has no chance of coming true. Just look at what they’ve done lately. They’ve won by at least 38 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Last week’s destruction of a solid Idaho team just shows what they can too when given a chance to prove themselves.

This week it’s Utah State – an underrated Aggie team that hasn’t lost by more than 18 points all season long. Now, they haven’t played a team like Boise State, but still, you have to think they’d be a decent value considering their ability to stick within a couple scores of every team they’ve played.

Against great small school teams like BYU and Utah, Utah State held their own losing by 18 on both occasions. There’s a chance that happens again here – but with their winning-margin being important, I know Boise State will do their best to drop 50 on Utah State. With how focused and sound their defense is, I don’t see the Aggies scoring more than 3 touchdowns – even that’s a stretch. 52-17 is about what I expect. The Broncos are too good. The fact that you can get this game for -23 at most books makes Boise even more likely to cover. 45-21 covers for -23 bettors. I need even more.

Colorado Buffaloes vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick

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Colorado Buffaloes @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14.5) Pick: The road team has won this game each of the last 4 times they’ve played dating back to 2001. Colorado is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with winning records. But Colorado is also 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games, as they’ve been a bad road team for some time (0-5 on the road this season). Oklahoma State is 5-2 at home this season, and they seem to beat up on bad teams. 3-7 Colorado fits that description. The Cowboys are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with losing records. They just out-muscle the lesser teams.

Colorado has lost 3 of their last 4, including a 10-17 loss @ Iowa State. The only teams they’ve beaten this year, Wyoming, Kansas, and Texas A&M. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 ATS. Oklahom State is 7-1 in their last 8 games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6, and they are a good team. That last part is key.

This spread has gone way up in since opening at -13.5. I got it at 14.5 on Monday Morning, and if you got my newsletter, you might have gotten to the books before it zoomed all the way up to 19 in some books. Colorado has only lost 1 game by 20 points or more – so I’m not so sure Oklahoma State is a great value all the way up at 19 – I’d probably make that a no-bet. But I think 14.5 still has some value. Two touchdowns and a field goal is about what I predict, with a chance of getting even uglier for the Buffaloes.

Central Michigan Chippewas vs Ball State Cardinals Prediction

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Central Michigan Chippewas (-17) @ Ball State Cardinals Prediction: Dan LeFevour isn’t to be messed with. The kid has done it all for the Central Michigan Chipps – really, he’s done it all. The Chipps are 8-2, 7-2 ATS, and clearly the best team in the MAC West. They are undefeated in conference, with a tough loss to Arizona and a nice win over Michigan State. And who to they have to thank? Dan LeFevour. Dan leads the team in Touchdowns, Rushing Yards, and Passing Yards. He’s thrown 18 touchdowns with just 5 interceptions while completing 70% of his passes for 2189 yards through 10 games. He also has 568 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns in those 10 games. The kid deserves Heisman consideration but will likely never get it because of his “little” school.

Ball State has just one win and that’s because they don’t pass efficiently, completing a low percentage on the season while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. They don’t run the all well either, getting out-rushed in half their games. They out-rushed Eastern Michigan by 300+ yards and still won by just 2 points. Unless CMU hits a wall, this should be a 28 point game at it’s closest.

Central Michigan is 4-2 on the road this season (4-2 ATS as well), Ball State is winless at home (1-4 ATS). Central Michigan is 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 road games. But Ball State is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with winning records. Those numbers mean very little to me, I just thought I’d throw them out there. Central Michigan has had a full week to prepare for this game, it’s been a short week for the Cardinals.

Akron Zips vs Bowling Green Falcons Week 12 NCAA Pick

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Akron Zips (+13) @ Bowling Green Falcons Week 12 NCAA Pick: I thought this line would move the other way. And that’s how it started out. After opening at -12, the Falcons had to give another point by the time I made my decision, and with the public lining up behind the Falcons (73% of the public bet is with Bowling Green), I fully expected this one to get to two touchdowns by mid-week. But it’s moved the other way. Right now, as I write this article, the common line sees the Falcons as just 11 point favorites despite the high public backing. Maybe somebody bigger than me saw what I saw, the Zips as a great value bet on the road.

Now, this one could run away from me, but either way, I still see good value. The Zips may be 0-5 on the road this season, and Bowling Green is 5-5 compared to the Zips 2-8 record, so obviously Akron has become comfortable losing. But they just aren’t as bad as their record insists, and Bowling Green isn’t as good as their 5-5 mark. When I’m looking at value, I’m looking at the lines that have been posted throughout the season. I see that Akron has been a 13 point dog or greater just twice, against a superior powerhouse (Penn State) and against a very good Central Michigan team. I see that Bowling Green has never been favored by more than 4 points. All of a sudden 13? That’s value.

Both have had close games against Kent State, Buffalo, and Ohio. I think Bowling Green is the better team, but their questionable ground game should keep the Zips with-in striking distance.

UCLA Bruins vs Washington State Cougars Pick & Preview

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UCLA Bruins (-18) @ Washington State Cougars Pick and Preview: I don’t think there’s much to this game. The spread is small because the Bruins haven’t been able to score that much. But don’t get it twisted, they haven’t played a team like the Cougars either – this isn’t going to be a “low scoring game”. One of the two teams will walk away with a pretty low score, but if this is any closer than 35-10 I will be absolutely stunned. Heck, I’ll be downright amazed if the Cougars get passed the Bruins 30 yard line more than twice on Saturday.

The Cougars give up an average of 38.6 points per game. But it doesn’t matter how good your offense is, it’s just hard to score much more than 40 points against a bad team that doesn’t compete – you stop trying to score so much and start running out the clock, this happens to the Cougars on a weekly basis, and I’m telling you, just because the Bruins only average about 20 points a game doesn’t mean they won’t put up 30+ in Cougar-land.

What has to be scaring bettors is the Cougars cover against Arizona State. But that was a fluke game, and USC only putting up 27 on the Cougs in their match-up, that was a low point for the Trojans over the last decade. The Bruins defense is good, their front 4 will not allow anything for free, and I doubt the Cougars will be throwing their way to a cover. I full expect a huge difference in this game.

Ohio Bobcats @ Buffalo Bulls Free NCAA Picks

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Ohio Bobcats (+3) @ Buffalo Bulls: This game looks interesting enough – at least the line is playing with me a bit. I see the Bobcats at 6-3 and Buffalo at 3-6, and normally that would mean something to the public. Not this time. The Bulls are still favored, playing at home against the Bobcats. Now normally a record means nothing to me, as you’ve noticed, I probably find more value in teams with poor records playing teams with neat looking records… neat. But not this time, I like what Ohio’s bringing to the party.

The Bobcats have played well in 2 of their 3 losses, falling to Tennessee by 11 and Connecticut by 7. Sure, they lost to Kent State a couple weeks ago, but they fought back from that disappointment to beat Ball State, and their looking forward to getting back on track against the Bulls. What impresses me most is that 4 of their 6 wins have come on the road where they are 4-1 on the season. That’s rare, especially for teams like Ohio.

Now the Bulls have played solid football over the last 4 weeks, losing the last two games they’ve played by 4 total points. Prior to that they had won 2 straight (be it to Akron and Garner Webb). Buffalo has had their running game going lately, and that could be enough to down the Bobcats, but that’s not where my money rests.

These teams are more equal than I originally thought, both have had some tough games on their schedule, both have had their runs of solid play this season, I just think Ohio’s a little better than Buffalo. As a 3 point dog on BetJamaica, I have to take the Bobcats.

Texas Lonhorns @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Free Pick

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Texans Longhorns (-8.5) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Free Pick: I like the Cowboys, like their confidence and numbers, I just don’t think it’s real. Not against good teams anyway. The Cowboys are 6-1 but they’ve had to fight a very easy schedule for wins, Baylor, Texas A&M, Rice, and Grambling don’t strike fear into my heart, and you should consider that when you’re looking at those 6 wins. 6 wins, sure, looks nice, but against who? The Cowboys’ best win? I’d say a marginal Missouri team. Texas, on the other hand, they haven’t looked like a Top team in the nation this year either, but they have won, and they’ve had to go through Oklahoma, Texas Tech,  at Missouri, and a pretty decent Colorado team. They are the better team here, no doubt in my mind, and with Dez Bryant suspended for the season, and more importantly this game, that game breaking presence isn’t going to help bail the Cowboys out. This game could be over quick, or it could take a little while, either way there will be a time when Oklahoma has their spirits broken, and that’s a good sign for a Texas cover. The Longhorns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. Texas is 10-0 in their last 10 games against Oklahoma State, they are 7-3 ATS in those games, 4-1 ATS on the road. The last two games have been decided by 7 total points.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs South Florida Bulls Free Pick

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West Virginia Mountaineers (-3)@South Florida Bulls Free Pick: The South Florida Bulls have hit their common lull. Per usual, the Bulls started the season on fire, winning their first 5 games, only to drop the last two and come right back down to earth. The only difference this time is that Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, the two straight losses for the Bulls, are very good teams this season. SF is still 5-2, and 3-3 ATS. They look to turn things around and beat the Mountaineers, something they’ve done 2 of the last 3 seasons.

They Mountaineers are coming off yet another win, a 28-24 home win against Connecticut. West Virginia is 6-1 so far this season, but just 2-4 ATS, so they haven’t beaten up on the teams they were expected to. Their single loss came on the road to Auburn. The Mounties still use their vaunted rushing attack, handing the ball to lightning quick running backs, but the question is will South Florida’s elite defensive speed match that speed rushing attack? The Mountaineers have out-rushed every opponent so far this season.

I’m taking the Mountaineers because I think their rushing attack is good enough to keep the ball in their hands. The Bulls have been out-rushed and beaten in each of the last two games, and I think that trend continues against WVU. I think the Mountaineers play better on a short week.

Washington State Cougars vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish

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Washington State Cougars @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-27.5): I don’t know why this spread is shrinking, it started at 30 and has moved all the way down past 4 touchdowns. I’m telling you, the Cougars can’t score more than a couple times. I think The Irish will have 6 touchdowns by 2nd quarter. I love to fade the Cougars, and it got me by a couple points last week when they just barely covered against the Bears – but the Irish have a much more dynamic offense than the Bears, and they can really score points quick. I like them to win easily at home in this one, by 6 or 7 touchdowns. I think a lot of sharp bets see that the Irish haven’t beaten up on anyone yet, and they get worried about covering 4 touchdowns. Nobody they’ve played compares to WSU, Nevada would kill WSU, the Irish smoked them 35-0. Don’t look at the Cougars as a Pac-10 big conference team, they will get beat up by most. I love this bet.