College Bowl Games Picks, Predictions & Previews 02/01/2010

I didn’t ace Friday’s New Years’ games, going 2-3 with a couple losses in games I took the favorite (West Virginia and Oregon) but I look to fight back in Saturday’s lesser known bowl games. No highly ranked Top 10 match-ups here, oh no, the BCS takes a break from “blessing us” with their handy work, and we get to see unranked foes go at it, lower ranked teams try to beat up on unranked opponents, and probably some really good football. Don’t get it twisted, highly touted games rarely live up to the billing while these small bowl games often go big. Here’s some small write-ups for Saturday’s games.

no banners

Northern Illinois Huskies (+7) @ South Florida Bulls (International Bowl): The Huskies won 4 of their last 6 to become bowl eligible, at one point winning 4 in a row before losing their final two games to end the season (both against bowling teams, Central Michigan and Ohio). South Florida lost 5 of their last 7 after a 5 game winning streak to open the season. They didn’t lose to bad teams by any means, but that doesn’t mean they played like a dream either. Rutgers spanked them 31-0, but they did beat West Virginia. This is a tougher game than people are giving credit, and the 7 points are something I expect to come in handy.

Connecticut Huskies @ South Carolina Gamecocks (-4.5) (AT&T Cotton Bowl): I really like the Huskies, have been pulling hard for them all season long, and will be rooting for them to win again here – but that doesn’t keep me from using my brain and seeing a very small chance of that happening. The Gamecocks are too tough defensively, and with all that time leading up to this game, I think the Ol’ Ball Coach will have a nice plan of attack on tap.

Mississippi Rebels (-3) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (PAPAJOHNS.com Bowl): I haven’t been a big fan of Mississippi, and watching them play at times this season has been painful – but they turned the season around a bit and have looked semi-successful toward the end of the season. They have some great players, and a RB that can dominate a game. I think they take care of the Cowboys.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ East Carolina Pirates (+8) (AutoZone Liberty Bowl): East Carolina had a great season, and while they can lay eggs, so can the Razorbacks. Arkansas can play great and play like pee, and something tells me a 4 week wait to play the East Carolina Pirates won’t have them rolling with excitement. East Carolina won 6 of their last 7 including 4 in a row to end the season. I think they keep on that hot streak and stick with the Razorbacks.

Michigan State Spartans @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7) (Valero Alamo Bowl): I know there’s been some crazy ish going down amongst these two teams, and a lot of players are probably really grateful a game is just around the corner so they can play football and quit talking about off-the-field problems. But I actually think Michigan State’s problems greatly out-weigh Texas Tech’s dilemma, especially for just one game. Mike Leach’s firing will certainly effect the Red Raider team, but probably next season more than this one day. His staff knows what he wants to do, and they’ll do it. As for the Spartans, loosing a gaggle of important pieces for a suspension because of a fight probably puts them in an impossible spot. The Raiders have almost every single one of their players for this game- that’s important.

Clemson Tigers vs South Carolina Gamecocks NCAA Pick

no banners

Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks (+3) NCAA Pick: Clemson has owned the Gamecocks over the last 7 years, winning 6 of their last 7 meetings, and covering 6 of the last 8 times these two have played. Whether it’s been on the road or at home, the Tigers have flexed their in-state muscle.

But I think this game will be different. It’s not what the Gamecocks have done, but who they’ve played – they are ready for a game against the Tigers. Over the last five weeks of games the Gamecocks have played Florida, Arkansas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Alabama. Now Vandy might not have much to offer, and Tennessee hasn’t won but a handful of games, but those other three are legit, and two of those are probably the best two teams in the Nation. Clemson has one hell of a defensive line, and that has given opposing offenses trouble all year long, but I know South Carolina has seen that kind of defensive front a couple times this year, and that makes me think they’ll be ready for the Tigers.

Getting three points at home is another plus for me here. Getting two weeks to prepare for Clemson is just another bonus. One might say that Clemson finally getting their act together and winning 6 straight coming in is a sign of trouble for South Carolina – but I’d have it no other way. Winning streaks end – and I’m willing to take a South Carolina team that went toe-to-toe with Florida two weeks ago, even though they’ve lost 4 of their 5. They are 5-1 at home, and obviously play their best football there.

South Carolina Gamecocks vs Tennessee Volunteers Pick

no banners

South Carolina Gamecocks (+6.5) @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: I know that I always take the unranked favorite over the ranked dog, but this one is going to be different. Favoring the Vols here is based solely off their ability to play close to top ranked teams, without ever winning of course. Well, despite what people have chosen to believe, these Gamecocks can play ball. At 6-2 they’ve lost a close one at Georgia and another tough one on the road at Alabama. Now, the Vols beat up on Georgia, but the Bulldogs were working against themselves in that one, Tennessee just had to show up to take advantage. Despite that one game, Tennessee hasn’t shown the offensive explosion to be a 6.5 point favorite against a solid team, especially not one with a powerful defense. Expect the Gamecocks to cover in Tennessee. I do.

NCAA Football Top 10 Free Picks: Week 1

I’m back! And hopefully, for you and for me, better than ever. If you followed me last season you saw a winning season in both the NFL and NCAA, giving you free NCAA and NFL winners for absolutely FREE. When I say Free Picks, I mean Free Picks, I made nothing, you gave nothing, we’re talking real Free, not some small print excluded kind of free that gets your hopes up right before crushing you with reality. The good free. The big story here? I’m back for some more free picks, write-ups, and best of all, heaps and heaps of flipping winners. College Football’s Week 1 is always a big deal, it means football is here, the NFL is damn close, and that nice warm weather that kept you warm (and less pale) for the last four months is just about finished. But the cooler nights allows me to smell some football. And with a bigger whiff I smell some winners. And that smell, more than anything, makes me all warm and fuzzy inside. Here’s 10 bets for Opening Week… Enjoy!

Oregon Ducks @ Boise State Broncos (OVER 64): Here’s the deal. The Ducks went out big last year, winning a few games to end their season, then busting Oklahoma State in the mouth on their way to a big bowl win over the heavily favored Cowboys. Hooray last year. The Ducks also return their stud starting quarterback, Jeremiah Masoli, a beast of a running back in LeGarrette Blount, and a few big boys on the line among others. What they lose, however, is some punch in their secondary and that could really hurt against a Broncos team that knows how to pick apart defenses. Boise State has some athletes of their own, helping Kellen Moore put points on the board will be Jeremy Avery, Jeremy Childs, and a huge play guy in Titus Young – a receiver that just happens to be one of the quickest players in the land. You throw in the blue turf, an Oregon team “trying to prove themselves and make up for last years loss to Boise State in Oregon” and I think the Broncos have the comfort level in this one. While I like the Broncos to win, and likely cover the 4 point spread in this one, I like the OVER even more. Oregon scored over 30 points in 11 of their 13 games, and I don’t think the Broncos will hold them much lower than that. The Ducks give up points too, allowing 30 or more to each ranked team they played in 2008. This game should light up the scoreboard, take advantage of that, it’s the best bet in this game.

South Carolina Gamecocks (+5) @ North Carolina State Wolfpack: Did South Carolina get that much worse in the last year? I don’t see Steve Spurrier’s team doing that. In fact, I think they’ve gotten a little better. Has North Carolina State become a powerhouse this summer, losing their best defensive player for the season? I think they’ll be decent in 2009, but they’re not a great team. The Gamecocks beat NC State 34-0 last season. They played tough against just about every single team they played until injuries broke them down and they lost 3 straight to end their season. Spurrier is a bit of a donkey, don’t get me wrong, but he’s one hell of a coach, offensive genius, and recruiter. His Gamecocks will get big contributions from freshman, a better season out of the quarterback position, and an upset win at NC State this Thursday Night.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (-6.5) @ Syracuse Orange: This game seems too easy. Does that put a little scare in a guy? Sure, from time to time, but the books are busy, certainly, and doing all those pre-season games, getting lines up for Week 1 in the NFL, getting proper lines for every single college game to start the season, shoot, it has to be tough. So they miss a line now and again. I’d take the Gophers at -14 in this one, so less than a touchdown favorite seems like free money. You know what I think about free money? Take it before it’s not free anymore. Sportsbook still has the Gophers favored by less than a TD, it doesn’t get much easier than that. The Orange are starting a quarterback that hasn’t played football in 4 years, and just transferred from Duke to Syracuse this spring. Greg Paulus, Duke’s old PG, is now the starting QB for Syracuse. Come on. This is Tim Brewsters’ 3rd season as the head coach of the Gophers, this will be his best season yet. The Gophers can really run the football, and the Orange are terrible at stopping the run. Look for the Gophers to start their season off right.

Baylor Bears @ Wake Forrest Demon Deacons (-2.5): This line seems to be moving towards the visiting team. I think the Deacons will win, but the hype is with the Bears. They have a young QB that lit up the conference last season, but I still give the nod at that position to 4 year starter Riley Skinner – the guy has a scope on his arm. Wake loses a lot offensively with Demir Boldin’s graduation, but there’s talent there, and like I said, Skinner is a sniper. Wake struggled a lot last season, playing way below their expectations, and I think that flips this season. The opposite can be said for Baylor. The Bears don’t play well on the road, they look like everybody’s favorite sleeper team this season, and I’m not buying in. I’ll take the Deacons.

BYU Cougars @ Oklahoma Sooners (-22): BYU didn’t get better, and last year they got pretty well kicked around by every “Good” team they played, at least final score wise. Arizona was decent, they won by 10. Utah was good, they won by 24. TCU was good, they won by 25. You get the picture? Oklahoma returns a load of great players, 1st round pick in the NFL type players, best QB in the land type players – so despite the high number, despite BYU’s returning players and big game hopes, I like the Sooners to beat up the Cougars by 30 or so.

Virginia Tech Hokies (+6.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide: The ACC gets not love, and that’s fine, I’ll just ride them toward some bags of money. The Hokies have a good enough defense to go with them as a 6.5 point dog against anybody in the nation, especially a run first team that lost 3 starting offensive linemen, their starting quarterback, and starting running back. I’m not sure that the Hokies are a Top 5 team, but I really don’t think Alabama will finish the season in the Top 15, not that rankings matter at all, but I’m basically saying the Hokies are the better team.

Maryland Terrapins (+21.5) @ California Golden Bears: I’m taking the Terps because 25 is too high. The Terps play close as dogs, and I think the Bears are a little overrated, even though Jahvid Best is an absolute beast. I think the Bears win by 10, maybe 14, but not more than three touchdowns.

LSU Tigers (-17.5) @ Washington Huskies: If the Tigers promise that they won’t throw the ball, and the Huskies get to stack 11 people in the box, and their new head coach just for shiggles, the Tigers will still run all over the Huskies in Seattle. The talent difference on the field should look like a college team playing a pro team. Do I think the Huskies will be better this year? You bet. Will they be good enough to make this game respectable? No chance. I would be stunned, absolutely pissed on, if the Huskies finish within four touchdowns of the Tigers.

Mississippi Rebels (-16.5) @ Memphis Tigers: Anybody worth anything hammered Memphis last season. The Rebels were one of those teams. This year, the Rebels are a year older, and that has made them a more complete team, stronger in a lot of places that help you destroy teams like Memphis. Ole Miss isn’t used to being in the Top 10, that’s for sure, and a couple games this season, those expectations are going to hurt them. Not in this game, that won’t hold them back.

Miami Hurricanes (+6.5) @ Florida State Seminoles: I think Miami’s the better team. There it is. This game is always a huge rivalry game, but I must say that it has to mean more to Miami. This is their very best chance for a win in the first four games of the season. After FSU it’s Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma. It doesn’t get easier after this game, that’s what I’m saying. So, I think they’ll have a little urgency, something that FSU won’t be ready for. I also think Jacory Harris is special, and that this Miami team is going to be very talented this season. Almost a touchdown dog in this big in-state rivalry game? I like them to cover here.

Week 5 College Football Picks Review: 2007

It was a bad week. That’s a sure thing. Check it out, these are the games I picked, and this is how it went wrong.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Michigan Wolverines (-16) @ Northwestern Wildcats:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

This game was closer than I thought, but the Wolverines had it in hand. It was just an unlucky week for old Lucky – what more can I say?

Alabama Crimson Tide (+2.5) @ Florida State Seminoles:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bet-Jam)

0-0 at half, Nick Saban’s offense was absolutely terrible. The Seminoles didn’t play amazing, but that FSU defense is stout. I lost another pick.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (+14) @ South Carolina Gamecocks:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Carolina Gamecocks scored about 10 more points than I figured. I just hated picking games this week, the un-luck had me wondering what I did wrong earlier in the week to deserve all the bad ju-ju. I still haven’t figured it out, but stealing candy from those kids earlier in the week might have had something to do with it.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Virginia Cavaliers (-7):
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

Yay! I picked one right. This went just like I thought it would. Weird. Because in every other situation this weekend, that didn’t happen. Thank you Cavs – you are now an all time Lucky Lester favorite. Thanks for keeping me off the snide.

USC Trojans (-20.5) @ Washington Huskies:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

UW almost pulled this one out, and that’s because the USC Trojans just couldn’t get their emotional woes under control. Locker was solid, but Josh Booty wasn’t accurate. The Huskies secondary was allowing receivers to get open, just as I had imagined, but Booty wasn’t finding them. He may have axed himself from the Heisman picture on Saturday evening in Seattle.

Free College Football Picks Week 5 – 2007

Just to let you guys in on my lines, I put the place I picked them up this week. I place my bets early, and to get the best lines, that’s not such a bad move. However, weather, mid-week injuries, and health question marks could hurt or help you, so be cautious. Week 5 looks like a great one, with big non-conference match-ups and some conference games that hold all the importance in the world. I have a couple of each in my Free Picks for Week 5.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Michigan Wolverines (-16) @ Northwestern Wildcats:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I just think Northwestern is absolutely brutal and they aren’t going to catch the Wolverines off guard. If Michigan hasn’t learned by now that they can’t take anybody lightly they’ll never learn. I have a feeling that this cover will be covered by the end of the first quarter, and the beating won’t stop. Expect Mike Hart to have one hell of a game against one of college football’s worst football teams.

Alabama Crimson Tide (+2.5) @ Florida State Seminoles:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bet-Jam)

Alabama met their match against a solid Georgia team last week, but I don’t think the Noles will end up beating ‘Bama this week. Florida State just hasn’t impressed me. They have only one loss, Week 1 against Clemson, but overall, this isn’t your daddy’s FSU club. They will have trouble with the Tide’s defense, and offensively I think Alabama will put up the 20 points you need to beat a Seminoles offense that just can’t score.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (+14) @ South Carolina Gamecocks:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I like Carolina to win this game, because that’s what Steve Spurrier does – but I don’t buy SC walking away from last week’s emotional trial against LSU and beating down the Bulldogs of Mississippi State. MSU has a solid club, and while South Carolina looked much better against LSU that State did, I just don’t think that will translate into a win of two scores or more. Look for South Carolina to control the game, and stay on top, but only win by 6-10 points.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Virginia Cavaliers (-7):
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I think the Pittsburgh Panthers are very bad, and while I’m not the biggest fan of the Virginia Cavaliers, I do think that they are a good enough football team to take advantage of bad defenses and ineffective offenses. They’ll do both when they easily oust the road team this weekend.

USC Trojans (-20.5) @ Washington Huskies:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Huskies will be a good football team in the next few years; will be is a key part of that sentence. The Huskies waste too much time trying to fake people out with that shotgun fake handoff quarterback sneak and that draw in the backfield to Louis Rankin. The Huskies need to take more chances with their young quarterback’s cannon. They have receivers that can make plays. But, until they stop playing football “not to lose” – they won’t be able to win big games in the Pac 10. USC has one of the fastest defenses in the land, and believe me, that will bother Jake Locker. USC might let the Dogs hang around early, but by the end of the 3rd quarter, this game should be covered.