Tag Archives: NCAA Bowl Preview

Boise State Broncos vs TCU Horned Frogs: Fiesta Bowl Pick

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As I wrote in my stream of conscious article right after the BCS games were announced, this is the best worst game of the bowl season. These are two of the best teams in college football, despite their conferences, and their “small college” “mid-major” status. TCU has one of the better defenses a college team has put together since Miami was paying kids to play back in the day, and Boise State just comes out and beats just about every damn team they play – aside from TCU, last season, when the Broncos lost 17-16.

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This season, the two “big-time-small-schools” get to play each other, again, with absolutely no way to prove anything at all except that one of these teams is better than the other on Monday, the 4th of January, after a month between games. And it has no chance of proving to anyone that the Horned Frogs or Broncos should be in the hunt for a national championship, because they can’t pull a big upset over a top ranked BCS school. Oh no they can’t.

But these are two great teams, and while it will certainly be a solid match-up, I think the Horned Frogs will get the best of the Broncos once again. Boise State has a very solid offense and an underrated defense, but TCU’s better in both aspects. They might not throw it better, but they are more efficient and they will control the clock in this one. Eventually, they’ll pull away, and win this one by double digits.

Boise State Broncos VS Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-7)

College Bowl Games Picks, Predictions & Previews 02/01/2010

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I didn’t ace Friday’s New Years’ games, going 2-3 with a couple losses in games I took the favorite (West Virginia and Oregon) but I look to fight back in Saturday’s lesser known bowl games. No highly ranked Top 10 match-ups here, oh no, the BCS takes a break from “blessing us” with their handy work, and we get to see unranked foes go at it, lower ranked teams try to beat up on unranked opponents, and probably some really good football. Don’t get it twisted, highly touted games rarely live up to the billing while these small bowl games often go big. Here’s some small write-ups for Saturday’s games.

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Northern Illinois Huskies (+7) @ South Florida Bulls (International Bowl): The Huskies won 4 of their last 6 to become bowl eligible, at one point winning 4 in a row before losing their final two games to end the season (both against bowling teams, Central Michigan and Ohio). South Florida lost 5 of their last 7 after a 5 game winning streak to open the season. They didn’t lose to bad teams by any means, but that doesn’t mean they played like a dream either. Rutgers spanked them 31-0, but they did beat West Virginia. This is a tougher game than people are giving credit, and the 7 points are something I expect to come in handy.

Connecticut Huskies @ South Carolina Gamecocks (-4.5) (AT&T Cotton Bowl): I really like the Huskies, have been pulling hard for them all season long, and will be rooting for them to win again here – but that doesn’t keep me from using my brain and seeing a very small chance of that happening. The Gamecocks are too tough defensively, and with all that time leading up to this game, I think the Ol’ Ball Coach will have a nice plan of attack on tap.

Mississippi Rebels (-3) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (PAPAJOHNS.com Bowl): I haven’t been a big fan of Mississippi, and watching them play at times this season has been painful – but they turned the season around a bit and have looked semi-successful toward the end of the season. They have some great players, and a RB that can dominate a game. I think they take care of the Cowboys.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ East Carolina Pirates (+8) (AutoZone Liberty Bowl): East Carolina had a great season, and while they can lay eggs, so can the Razorbacks. Arkansas can play great and play like pee, and something tells me a 4 week wait to play the East Carolina Pirates won’t have them rolling with excitement. East Carolina won 6 of their last 7 including 4 in a row to end the season. I think they keep on that hot streak and stick with the Razorbacks.

Michigan State Spartans @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7) (Valero Alamo Bowl): I know there’s been some crazy ish going down amongst these two teams, and a lot of players are probably really grateful a game is just around the corner so they can play football and quit talking about off-the-field problems. But I actually think Michigan State’s problems greatly out-weigh Texas Tech’s dilemma, especially for just one game. Mike Leach’s firing will certainly effect the Red Raider team, but probably next season more than this one day. His staff knows what he wants to do, and they’ll do it. As for the Spartans, loosing a gaggle of important pieces for a suspension because of a fight probably puts them in an impossible spot. The Raiders have almost every single one of their players for this game- that’s important.

Sugar Bowl Predictions: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Florida Gators

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One of these teams was supposed to go undefeated. One of these teams had a quarterback that was supposed to find himself at the top of the Heisman list, and one of these two programs were heavy favorites to win a National Championship – but the other team actually went undefeated, and the other team should have had a quarterback on the Heisman list (and would have had he not been out for a handful of games), and the other team got robbed a chance at the National Championship despite being undefeated, because they don’t play in a conference with “big” money. There it is. So Cincinnati comes to the Sugar Bowl trying to prove themselves a legit title contender, and Florida, well, they come to show that their game against Alabama was a fluke, and to send one of the best college players of all time out on a win.

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Both of these teams will be without the head coach that got them to where they are. Cincinnati’s head man Brian Kelly bolted for a chance to rebuild and their interim coach, Jeff Quinn headed out promptly, taking the Buffalo head job. Then you have Florida, and Urban Meyer’s health problems have him out of this game, and almost retiring from the position altogether, but that’s all up in the air, or changed, or – well, we’ll see how that goes in due time.

The bottom line is Florida is an elite team in the country. Their defense has heaps of NFL talent and their offense has one of the greatest leaders of college football history – not to mention speed that Cincinnati hasn’t seen. And I think Cincinnati’s luck has run it’s course – this is a team that had their fair share of close games, and should have lost their last one. Having something to prove is a little overrated, especially when you’re going up against one of the best teams in college football after they got kicked around and embarrassed in front of the sporting world. Something tells me they’ll be plenty motivated.

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Florida Gators (-10.5)

Bowling Green Falcons vs Idaho Vandals: Roady's Humanitarian Bowl

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These two teams are the same. Both have had a lot of success against teams they should and can beat, and both really struggled against the “good” mid-major teams in their conferences. Idaho has forever been that “other” team in Idaho, and being that I still think they are a little better than Bowling Green. Nobody knows about them and I think they are a better team, well, that’s one hell of a great betting combination in my book!

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Bowling Green was 7-5 SU and against the spread, just like Idaho. The Falcons were 4-2 on the road, a game better than the Vandals 3-3 mark away from Idaho. The Falcons have won 4 straight games and 6 of 7 after losing four out of five games to start the season. But it’s not all about their play, their schedule has gotten a lot easier since their begin to the year. The bottom line is that Bowling green hasn’t beaten a single opponent with a winning record since the first game of the season.

Idaho, like I said, hasn’t fared much better against their toughest competition. Idaho has lost three straight coming into the post-season, and 4 of 5 Ls in their last 5 games. But a lot of that struggle has to do with their level of competition. 3 of their last 5 games were against Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada, the three best teams in the WAC. I like Idaho to step it up against mediocre competition and get a win for the WAC.

Bowling Green @ Idaho Vandals (+2)

Miami Hurricanes vs Wisconsin Badgers: Champs Sports Bowl

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Right off the bat the Hurricanes come in with a big home-field advantage, as this game is being played in their home state, Orlando, against a Big 10 school from the Midwest. The Hurricanes have a heap of top-flight speedy athletes, consistently prepare well with long breaks, and have played well at home all season long. Wisconsin probably doesn’t have the speed they’ll need to compete with Miami, plus they’ve covered on the road only twice all season long, at Minnesota and against at Hawaii. That doesn’t really win me over on the Badgers.

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One thing Wisconsin has done is out-rush every single one of their last 10 opponents, but that hasn’t really meant victory for them. They’ve lost 3 of their last 7 games, and haven’t beat a “good” team yet this year. Every time they had a chance to prove their worth, they’ve fallen to the Big 10’s top teams, losing to Iowa and Ohio State – they didn’t play Penn State, and they also lost to Northwestern.

Miami has also struggled against top-tier teams, losing to Clemson, North Carolina, and virginia Tech. They did beat Oklahoma and Georgia Tech earlier in the season, also smacking around a decent South Florida team to end the year.

Both teams are 9-3 SU this season, and both have been much better at home than on the road. That should be key in this one as I’ll take Miami playing in Orlando.

Miami Hurricanes (-3) @ Wisconsin Badgers:

UCLA Bruins vs Temple Owls: EagleBank Bowl Prediction

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UCLA Bruins vs Temple Owls: EagleBank Bowl Prediction: Right off the bat, more of the public bet is going to be on the Bruins because they are UCLA, a big college name from a big college conference. But if you start to look at the reality of bowl games, the struggles the Pac 10 have had thus far, and how small college schools come out trying to prove their worth in the face of those big schools, the 57% public bet on UCLA is probably unfounded.

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First of all, the 6-6 Bruins won three games to start their season, a win over Tennessee and Kansas State both look solid now, but what have they done in the last 9 games? They’ve beaten Washington, Washington State, and Arizona State – they lost to everyone else. Basically, they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 3 of the season. Those three wins to get them bowl eligible came against the very bottom of the Pac-10, well, the bottom not counting themselves.

Temple comes in with their most successful regular season in 30 years, going 9-3 and 8-3 ATS. This is their first bowl game in three decades. They were 4-2 SU on the road, 5-1 ATS. The Owls are committed to a run-heavy scheme, as they’ve out-rushed 9 of their last 10 opponents, and really lean on that run-game. In thier last 10 games, the UCLA Bruins have been out-rushed 6 times. In those 6 games, they’ve lost 5 – their only win was a 24-23 win over Washington in a game the Huskies gave away.

Names and mascots aside, you have to like Temple in this one.

UCLA Bruins @ Temple Owls (+5)

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas: Oregon State Beavers vs BYU Cougars

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BYU started with one hell of a bang, beating Top 5 Oklahoma when Sam Bradford went down. After that, they were everybody’s small college darling that could get a chance at the National Title – but then the rest of the season came, and despite going for 10 wins and just 2 losses, the now 14th ranked Cougars got smacked around a couple times when they could have proven themselves. Florida State, of all teams, smacked the Cougars for their first loss, 54-28. And after three straight wins to bounce back from that, the TCU Horned Frogs (one of the best teams in the Nation, mind you) embarrassed the Cougars at home, 38-7.

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It’s very possible that the best win BYU put on the board was a week 1 win over a team that lost thier Heisman quarterback, were playing with a brand new offensive line, and were definitely a bit overrated going into the season. After that, their best win likely came at home against Utah, or at home against Air Force. In both games, the Cougars were favored by more than a touchdown.

Oregon State, on the other hand, is one of the Top 10 teams in the Nation – or so I think. Luckily, I could give a piss about rankings, the same rankings that have BYU ranked above Oregon State because they have 10 wins to OSU’s 8. Well, I’ll take OSU’s losses over most of BYU’s wins, and I know a certain couple of Rodgers brothers will be ready to show their twin magic this Tuesday on ESPN. I’ll be watching.

The Beavers should win by a couple scores.

Oregon State Beavers (-2) vs. BYU Cougars:

New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss vs Middle Tennessee Free Pick

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New Orleans Bowl – Southern Miss vs Middle Tennessee Free Pick: The game’s being played in New Orleans, so nobody has a distinct advantage in this one, yet it’s close enough where teams will get fans driving in. Both these teams had solid seasons, and it should be one heck of an offensive showcase, and in those types of games, nobody’s ever out of it, and nobody’s ever safe.

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Middle Tennessee comes in winners of their last 6 games, outscoring their opponents at least 2 to 1 in 5 of those 6 contests. They haven’t played the biggest baddest competition over the last 6 games, but straight pancaking the competition needs to be recognized, and that’s exactly what they’ve been doing.

The Blue Raiders are 9-3 on the season, 9-3 ATS, 5-1 at home and 4-2 on the road. They’ve won everywhere. They score an average of 31 points per game while giving up 23. They are 7-5 O/U, going 4-2 O/U in their recent 6 game winning streak. They’ve out-rushed their opponents in each of their last 6 games.

The Golden Eagles are 7-5 on the year, 6-5 ATS, 6-0 at home and just 1-5 on the road, making me question their chances away from home in this bowl game. They’ve averaged 33 poitns per game while giving up 24.5. SMU has played a much tougher schedule than the Blue Raiders. The Eagles have won 5 of their last 6 games ATS, and are 4-2 SU over their last 6 games.

It comes down to their rushing attack, their momentum, and their ability to play anywhere – and because of that, I like the Blue Raiders to pull the bowl upset.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+4)

St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida Vs. Rutgers, Preview, Picks

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I made some good points in my “Just Picks” newsletter about the St. Petersburg Bowl, presented by Beef ‘O’ Brady’s, and while I could easily find another way to say the same stuff, I think it would just be simpler for everyone if I just gave you the clip, I wanted to go with Rutgers and Tom Savage here, but I see a little problem with that pick and thus I’m going against a pretty good Rutgers team. Central Florida’s rushing attack is better, and they’ve out-rushed many opponents this year, and will probably out-rush the Scarlet Knights. In all four of Rutgers’ losses this year, they’ve been out-gained on the ground. That’s enough for me in what should be a very tight contest. Oh, and the game is being played in St. Petersburg, Florida. That’s just some of it. Here’s more.

I said that Rutgers has struggled when getting out-rushed, this is what I meant: They were out-rushed 5 times in the last 10 games – 3 of those games were straight up losses, and losses ATS as well. They were out-gained on the ground by Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and West Virginia, and all three of those teams got the win. Connecticut and Army also out-gained Rutgers, and while they beat Army fairly easily, UConn probably should have won that game.

I’ve liked Tom Savage all year, he’s done good things with his chances, and his fight has certainly impressed me – but match-ups are important, and I think the Florida Knights have a good chance to upset the Knights of Scarlet color.

Central Florida Knights (+3) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights