Texas Longhorns VS Alabama Crimson Tide: BCS National Championship Pick

As I said in my newsletter, Alabama is the best college football team in the Nation. Defensively they look superior to every other team, and offensively they often manhandle opposing defenses, control the clock, and have shown the ability to beat the snot out of opponents as well as win ugly. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they will win this game.

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A month of no games can play tricks on a team, and that’s one of the reasons why this ridiculous bowl stuff makes everything a little more interesting. For an entire month, the Texas Longhorns have been hearing people talk about how they don’t have a chance against the best team in the SEC. They’ve heard about Heisman winner Mark Ingram and the powerful running game. They’ve heard about the defense with a handful of future NFL players. Yes, for one month, they’ve got to hear all the reasons they should lose. And it’s amazing how motivational that can be for a team that didn’t lose a single game all season long.

But despite that motivational push, it’s tough for me to go against Alabama here. Bowl games are special, and you never know, but the Tide look too tough in areas I think are most important. They are as tough as nails up front of offense and all over the field defensively. They allowed just 11 points per game, allowed 7 or less in 6 contests, and held normally powerful offenses like Arkansas, Florida, and Ole Miss to fewer than two touchdowns. The Crimson Tide are certainly battle tested. They easily ran throw what many people thought was the very best team in the Nation when they blistered Florida 32-13 in the SEC Championship game.

Texas struggled down the stretch, barely beating Texas A&M in a game where the Longhorns allowed 39 points (nearly twice as much as the Crimson Tide ever allowed in a single game this season) and needed a long last second field goal to beat Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship. Anything can happen in Bowl games, but if both these teams play to their potential, I think the Tide win easily. So I’ll take Alabama to cover the spread.

Texas Longhorns VS Alabama Crimson Tide (-3.5)

New Year's Eve Bowl Games: Free College Football Picks

The amount of college games on the docket right now is a little overbearing, so I’m going to go ahead and write a little less about each game, include them into one article, and cut down on the amount of computer hours I’m putting in these last few weeks. Don’t worry, I’ll still have some of the bigger games of the College Bowl season with bigger write ups, so keep checking in. And don’t feel like I’m ripping you off, the same amount of research goes into these picks as any write up I do for any other pick I do all year. Here goes Thursday’s Bowl Games…

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Air Force Falcons @ Houston Cougars (-4.5): The quick little bit of information I gave on this game in my weekly newsletter still has me liking the Cougars to pull it out over the Falcons. I said the Falcons have been blistered by elite passing attacks, and in their last 3 losses they were out-gained through the air by 550+ yards. I think the Cougars have a chance to do that again.

Stanford Cardinal (+10) @ Oklahoma Sooners: I know the Pac 10 has been brutal, and I know the Cardinal are without their freshman sensation at running back, but something in me just trusts Jim Harbaugh to get his team prepared for this big game. Since he got on campus as the head man at Stanford, he’s had his kids ready to play better than expected, especially against elite opponents. They have a stellar rushing attack, and not just at running back, their offensive line is one of the best in the country. That should be worth a 10 point cover.

Navy Midshipmen (+7) @ Missouri Tigers: Navy has out-rushed their opponent in 8 of their last 10 games, winning 7 of those match-ups. Missouri was out-gained on the ground in 4 of their last 8 games, and in all four they recorded the loss. It’s not as good as gold, but with a touchdown to play with, I  sure like the consistent and disciplined Navy Midshipmen.

Iowa State Cyclones (+3) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers: Neither of these teams really impress me, but I know what I think about the Big 10, and while the Big 12 is a little overrated, they are much better than the Big 10. Both teams were terribly inconsistent, playing with Top 25 talent one week while getting beaten up other weeks – the one thing keeping me with Iowa is that Minnesota gives up lots of rushing yards, and Iowa State has shown the ability to win when they can run.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Virginia Tech Hokies (-4.5): The SEC really embarrassed the ACC toward the end of the year in some inter-conference match-ups, but I don’t see that happening here. Tennessee has gone through to stuff with some trouble within the program towards the end of the season, and while they played well in some games down the stretch, I think all that attention hurts them a bit against the Hokies. Va Tech won 4 straight to end the season, never giving up more than 13 points and out-scoring their opponents 132-35 in those games. Your can run on Tennessee, and the Vols don’t throw the ball real well – both those statistical advantages look to really favor the Hokies in this one.

Bowling Green Falcons vs Idaho Vandals: Roady's Humanitarian Bowl

These two teams are the same. Both have had a lot of success against teams they should and can beat, and both really struggled against the “good” mid-major teams in their conferences. Idaho has forever been that “other” team in Idaho, and being that I still think they are a little better than Bowling Green. Nobody knows about them and I think they are a better team, well, that’s one hell of a great betting combination in my book!

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Bowling Green was 7-5 SU and against the spread, just like Idaho. The Falcons were 4-2 on the road, a game better than the Vandals 3-3 mark away from Idaho. The Falcons have won 4 straight games and 6 of 7 after losing four out of five games to start the season. But it’s not all about their play, their schedule has gotten a lot easier since their begin to the year. The bottom line is that Bowling green hasn’t beaten a single opponent with a winning record since the first game of the season.

Idaho, like I said, hasn’t fared much better against their toughest competition. Idaho has lost three straight coming into the post-season, and 4 of 5 Ls in their last 5 games. But a lot of that struggle has to do with their level of competition. 3 of their last 5 games were against Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada, the three best teams in the WAC. I like Idaho to step it up against mediocre competition and get a win for the WAC.

Bowling Green @ Idaho Vandals (+2)

Miami Hurricanes vs Wisconsin Badgers: Champs Sports Bowl

Right off the bat the Hurricanes come in with a big home-field advantage, as this game is being played in their home state, Orlando, against a Big 10 school from the Midwest. The Hurricanes have a heap of top-flight speedy athletes, consistently prepare well with long breaks, and have played well at home all season long. Wisconsin probably doesn’t have the speed they’ll need to compete with Miami, plus they’ve covered on the road only twice all season long, at Minnesota and against at Hawaii. That doesn’t really win me over on the Badgers.

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One thing Wisconsin has done is out-rush every single one of their last 10 opponents, but that hasn’t really meant victory for them. They’ve lost 3 of their last 7 games, and haven’t beat a “good” team yet this year. Every time they had a chance to prove their worth, they’ve fallen to the Big 10’s top teams, losing to Iowa and Ohio State – they didn’t play Penn State, and they also lost to Northwestern.

Miami has also struggled against top-tier teams, losing to Clemson, North Carolina, and virginia Tech. They did beat Oklahoma and Georgia Tech earlier in the season, also smacking around a decent South Florida team to end the year.

Both teams are 9-3 SU this season, and both have been much better at home than on the road. That should be key in this one as I’ll take Miami playing in Orlando.

Miami Hurricanes (-3) @ Wisconsin Badgers:

UCLA Bruins vs Temple Owls: EagleBank Bowl Prediction

UCLA Bruins vs Temple Owls: EagleBank Bowl Prediction: Right off the bat, more of the public bet is going to be on the Bruins because they are UCLA, a big college name from a big college conference. But if you start to look at the reality of bowl games, the struggles the Pac 10 have had thus far, and how small college schools come out trying to prove their worth in the face of those big schools, the 57% public bet on UCLA is probably unfounded.

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First of all, the 6-6 Bruins won three games to start their season, a win over Tennessee and Kansas State both look solid now, but what have they done in the last 9 games? They’ve beaten Washington, Washington State, and Arizona State – they lost to everyone else. Basically, they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 3 of the season. Those three wins to get them bowl eligible came against the very bottom of the Pac-10, well, the bottom not counting themselves.

Temple comes in with their most successful regular season in 30 years, going 9-3 and 8-3 ATS. This is their first bowl game in three decades. They were 4-2 SU on the road, 5-1 ATS. The Owls are committed to a run-heavy scheme, as they’ve out-rushed 9 of their last 10 opponents, and really lean on that run-game. In thier last 10 games, the UCLA Bruins have been out-rushed 6 times. In those 6 games, they’ve lost 5 – their only win was a 24-23 win over Washington in a game the Huskies gave away.

Names and mascots aside, you have to like Temple in this one.

UCLA Bruins @ Temple Owls (+5)

Pittsburgh Panthers vs North Carolina Tar Heels: Meineke Car Care Bowl Pick

Pittsburgh Panthers vs North Carolina Tar Heels: As I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, the Tar Heels actually look like the better team to me. I know the Panthers have a pretty damn good record, and they’ve played tight against some very good teams, but I’m afraid they might have out-produced themselves this season. It’s not like the ACC has shown it’s speed, toughness, and grit against other conferences this year – but this Tar Heel team can shut down most any rushing attack, and they put a lot of pressure on opposing offenses. The Pitt Panthers have one real strength, their rushing attack, and I forsee the Tar Heels doing a very good job of slowing that portion of the Panthers’ offense down.

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69% of the public is against me in this one, and I understand why. The Panthers are 9-3 SU this season, 7-4 ATS – but they haven’t been awesome on the road, just 3-2 this season, and never really looking that good (besides @ Louisville, and lets be honest, that shouldn’t count). But Pitt has been tough, no doubt, they have yet to get beaten by more than 7 points, and lost their last two games by a total of 4 points, losing 44-45 against Cincinnati in the final game of their regular season.

But it’s that fall that has me worried. The Panthers went from a possible BCS bowl to a Meineke Car Care Bowl against an un-ranked ACC opponent – there may very well be a lull in their preparation for this game based on that alone. The Tar Heels have also played thier best football of the season in their last 5 games, beating Va Tech, Duke, Miami, and Boston College – before getting upset by a point against their in-state rival, NC State. I like them to win their 5th in 6 chances this Saturday.

Pittsburgh Panthers VS North Carolina Tar Heels (+3):

New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss vs Middle Tennessee Free Pick

New Orleans Bowl – Southern Miss vs Middle Tennessee Free Pick: The game’s being played in New Orleans, so nobody has a distinct advantage in this one, yet it’s close enough where teams will get fans driving in. Both these teams had solid seasons, and it should be one heck of an offensive showcase, and in those types of games, nobody’s ever out of it, and nobody’s ever safe.

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Middle Tennessee comes in winners of their last 6 games, outscoring their opponents at least 2 to 1 in 5 of those 6 contests. They haven’t played the biggest baddest competition over the last 6 games, but straight pancaking the competition needs to be recognized, and that’s exactly what they’ve been doing.

The Blue Raiders are 9-3 on the season, 9-3 ATS, 5-1 at home and 4-2 on the road. They’ve won everywhere. They score an average of 31 points per game while giving up 23. They are 7-5 O/U, going 4-2 O/U in their recent 6 game winning streak. They’ve out-rushed their opponents in each of their last 6 games.

The Golden Eagles are 7-5 on the year, 6-5 ATS, 6-0 at home and just 1-5 on the road, making me question their chances away from home in this bowl game. They’ve averaged 33 poitns per game while giving up 24.5. SMU has played a much tougher schedule than the Blue Raiders. The Eagles have won 5 of their last 6 games ATS, and are 4-2 SU over their last 6 games.

It comes down to their rushing attack, their momentum, and their ability to play anywhere – and because of that, I like the Blue Raiders to pull the bowl upset.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+4)

St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida Vs. Rutgers, Preview, Picks

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I made some good points in my “Just Picks” newsletter about the St. Petersburg Bowl, presented by Beef ‘O’ Brady’s, and while I could easily find another way to say the same stuff, I think it would just be simpler for everyone if I just gave you the clip, I wanted to go with Rutgers and Tom Savage here, but I see a little problem with that pick and thus I’m going against a pretty good Rutgers team. Central Florida’s rushing attack is better, and they’ve out-rushed many opponents this year, and will probably out-rush the Scarlet Knights. In all four of Rutgers’ losses this year, they’ve been out-gained on the ground. That’s enough for me in what should be a very tight contest. Oh, and the game is being played in St. Petersburg, Florida. That’s just some of it. Here’s more.

I said that Rutgers has struggled when getting out-rushed, this is what I meant: They were out-rushed 5 times in the last 10 games – 3 of those games were straight up losses, and losses ATS as well. They were out-gained on the ground by Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and West Virginia, and all three of those teams got the win. Connecticut and Army also out-gained Rutgers, and while they beat Army fairly easily, UConn probably should have won that game.

I’ve liked Tom Savage all year, he’s done good things with his chances, and his fight has certainly impressed me – but match-ups are important, and I think the Florida Knights have a good chance to upset the Knights of Scarlet color.

Central Florida Knights (+3) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming Cowboys vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

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New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State Bulldogs have won 7 of their last 8 games, and they are playing good offensive football coming in. Defensively, they certainly leave something to be desired, I mean not many teams give up 50+ points and win, but that’s what Fresno did to finish the season. Still, the only team they lost to over the last 8 games of the season was Nevada, one heck of a football team that almost ended Boise State’s undefeated run. Fresno has shown they can play with anyone.

Now that might be tough considering their draw in the opening Bowl game of the College Bowl season, they get Wyoming… Tough draw? Hardly, the Cowboys just barely go into the bowl family, and maybe, just maybe the Bulldogs find a tough time getting up for the Cowboys. But I’m not betting on that, I’m betting on a Fresno team that will play anybody anywhere, and a bowl game closer to Wyoming doesn’t worry me much – plus, Fresno is just flat out better.

Wyoming Cowboys gives up 10 more points a game than they score, and it’s not like they’re on fire coming into the bowl season – they’ve lost 4 of their last 6 games, and they haven’t played well against winning football teams. Fresno allows a lot of points, no doubt about that, giving up nearly 28 per game, but they throw it and run it and have the athletes to beat up on Wyoming, and I think they do.

Fresno State Bulldogs (-11.5) vs. Wyoming Cowboys

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Clemson Tigers Prediction

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Clemson Tigers Prediction: This game has me really nervous after the week’s numbers, and the way the lines have shifted. I got this game on Tuesday back at GT -2.5, and that’s what I have to stick with, but almost every book has this game at even, and the ones that don’t have the Jackets favored by only a point, and there’s even one book that has Clemson favored in the ACC Title game. 64% of the bets are coming in on the Jackets, but the line has moved in the Tigers favor, hmmm…. That’s always tough on a guy like me, I try to think of it all.

Now I can see what there is to like about Clemson. The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games, the underdog in this match-up is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings, and the Yellow Jackets are coming off a game where their run game got shut down pretty well by a mediocre Georgia defense. Who has a very good defense? The Tigers, that’s who, up front they are very talented and I can imagine the books see a possible problem for the Jackets there. All they have is a run game, if that’s stopped, they have nothing.

But, Clemson gave up a ton of rushing yards to the Gamecocks last week as well, and I can’t see the Yellow Jackets struggling two weeks in a row on the ground. While the match-up is a good one, a great run game against a great defensive line, I think the Yellow Jackets are just flat out the better team. That gives them the nod in my book.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2.5) @ Clemson Tigers: