Tag Archives: Free Sports Picks

Arizona Cardinals vs St. Louis Rams NFL Free Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (-8.5) @ St. Louis Rams NFL Free Pick: The Rams have been very good lately running the ball. Steven Jackson has seemingly stacked each and every one of his teammates on his bulky shoulders, and carried them to some solid performances over the last couple weeks.

After carrying the entire load and getting the Rams their first win of the season two weeks ago in Detroit (probably counts as a half win), the entire Rams team, not just Steven Jackson (though he performed like a beast) took it to the Saints last Sunday. While they were never ahead in the game, it was tied at 14 at the half. And in the end, the Rams were driving to get that go-ahead score they needed to end the Saints run at undefeated. This is the Rams we’re talking about, so obviously it didn’t work, but there’s reason to believe that Steve Spagnola could be turning this franchise around. Even Marc Bulger’s ghost got into the act, throwing for 298 yards and 2 touchdowns as he moved the team down the field. Of course, Jackson’s 131 rushing yards, 9 catches for 45 yards, and 1 rushing touchdown helped too.

But the Cardinals are stout against the run. They’ve played awesome football on the road this season. This is Kurt Warner going up against the team that gave up on him, replacing him with a clown name Marc Bulger, despite Warner’s MVP’s and NFL Championship Trophy. Kurt’s the kind of guy his teammates rally around, and you can bet he’ll be demanding perfection this week. I think Beanie Wells has another big game for the Cardinals, and that will make all the difference.

Colorado Buffaloes vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick

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Colorado Buffaloes @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14.5) Pick: The road team has won this game each of the last 4 times they’ve played dating back to 2001. Colorado is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with winning records. But Colorado is also 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games, as they’ve been a bad road team for some time (0-5 on the road this season). Oklahoma State is 5-2 at home this season, and they seem to beat up on bad teams. 3-7 Colorado fits that description. The Cowboys are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with losing records. They just out-muscle the lesser teams.

Colorado has lost 3 of their last 4, including a 10-17 loss @ Iowa State. The only teams they’ve beaten this year, Wyoming, Kansas, and Texas A&M. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 ATS. Oklahom State is 7-1 in their last 8 games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6, and they are a good team. That last part is key.

This spread has gone way up in since opening at -13.5. I got it at 14.5 on Monday Morning, and if you got my newsletter, you might have gotten to the books before it zoomed all the way up to 19 in some books. Colorado has only lost 1 game by 20 points or more – so I’m not so sure Oklahoma State is a great value all the way up at 19 – I’d probably make that a no-bet. But I think 14.5 still has some value. Two touchdowns and a field goal is about what I predict, with a chance of getting even uglier for the Buffaloes.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (-11) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Pick: The Saints haven’t played well over the last few weeks, the Buccaneers have been pretty solid considering how pathetic they were to start the season. Those two things have to even out, I mean, the Saints are really good and the Bucs aren’t. Josh Freeman can’t be as polished as he’s looked in his first two games starting, and Drew Brees has to torch a Bucs secondary that hasn’t been beaten much in the past couple games.

Teams with solid pass blocking and good quarterbacks have destroyed the Bucs this year. New England, Philadelphia, the Giants, and Dallas all beat the Bucs by 13 ore more points. But the Bucs have been good since Josh Freeman took over, and the scores have reflected that. After beating the Packers in what seemed like a fluke, the Bucs almost put another big upset together, falling just short of beating the Dolphins in Miami.

But like I said above, that kind of stuff has to fall off one of these weeks. And while the Saints have managed to stay undefeated despite less than stellar performances over the last 3 weeks, you’d think their close calls in 4 straight would keep them focused enough against a team like Tampa Bay.

It’s not the Saints offense that gets me most excited about New Orleans chances at covering this spread, but the way their defense can pick on arrant passes. The Bucs don’t have a dominate rushing attack like the last 4 teams New Orleans has struggled with, I think that’s the main reason I’m taking the Saints here.

New York Jets vs New England Patriots Pick & Preview

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New York Jets (+11) @ New England Patriots Pick & Preview: I’m a firm believer that you don’t give a good team double digits and cover the spread very often. I know that if anyone can do it, it’s a pissed off Patriots team that is looking to take the heat of their coach’s back, a team that saw the Jets out-play, out-work, and out-physical them earlier in the year when New York upset the Pats. But just because I know the Patriots have it in them doesn’t mean I’m going to bet the way of the Pats – the value is too good on New York, and it’s not like their heads are swollen from playing too good over the last few weeks. After coming back to reality after a hot start, I know the Jets will be fully prepared for what New England has to offer this Sunday Afternoon.

First and foremost, the Jets have a cat that matches up pretty well with Randy Moss, that, in and of itself, is something most teams can only dream about. Darrelle Revis was tough on Randy in the first game, and while I don’t expect Moss to struggle to make plays as much this time around, I do expect him to be held under his season averages.

Next, the Jets have a solid offensive line and a rushing attack that eats clock and should force the Patriots to pay extra attention to the run. I think Mark Sanchez, though he’s struggled at times, has the big game flare in his blood, and he’ll make some nice plays to keep this one close. 11 is too many. I’ll take them points!

Central Michigan Chippewas vs Ball State Cardinals Prediction

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Central Michigan Chippewas (-17) @ Ball State Cardinals Prediction: Dan LeFevour isn’t to be messed with. The kid has done it all for the Central Michigan Chipps – really, he’s done it all. The Chipps are 8-2, 7-2 ATS, and clearly the best team in the MAC West. They are undefeated in conference, with a tough loss to Arizona and a nice win over Michigan State. And who to they have to thank? Dan LeFevour. Dan leads the team in Touchdowns, Rushing Yards, and Passing Yards. He’s thrown 18 touchdowns with just 5 interceptions while completing 70% of his passes for 2189 yards through 10 games. He also has 568 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns in those 10 games. The kid deserves Heisman consideration but will likely never get it because of his “little” school.

Ball State has just one win and that’s because they don’t pass efficiently, completing a low percentage on the season while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. They don’t run the all well either, getting out-rushed in half their games. They out-rushed Eastern Michigan by 300+ yards and still won by just 2 points. Unless CMU hits a wall, this should be a 28 point game at it’s closest.

Central Michigan is 4-2 on the road this season (4-2 ATS as well), Ball State is winless at home (1-4 ATS). Central Michigan is 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 road games. But Ball State is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with winning records. Those numbers mean very little to me, I just thought I’d throw them out there. Central Michigan has had a full week to prepare for this game, it’s been a short week for the Cardinals.

Akron Zips vs Bowling Green Falcons Week 12 NCAA Pick

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Akron Zips (+13) @ Bowling Green Falcons Week 12 NCAA Pick: I thought this line would move the other way. And that’s how it started out. After opening at -12, the Falcons had to give another point by the time I made my decision, and with the public lining up behind the Falcons (73% of the public bet is with Bowling Green), I fully expected this one to get to two touchdowns by mid-week. But it’s moved the other way. Right now, as I write this article, the common line sees the Falcons as just 11 point favorites despite the high public backing. Maybe somebody bigger than me saw what I saw, the Zips as a great value bet on the road.

Now, this one could run away from me, but either way, I still see good value. The Zips may be 0-5 on the road this season, and Bowling Green is 5-5 compared to the Zips 2-8 record, so obviously Akron has become comfortable losing. But they just aren’t as bad as their record insists, and Bowling Green isn’t as good as their 5-5 mark. When I’m looking at value, I’m looking at the lines that have been posted throughout the season. I see that Akron has been a 13 point dog or greater just twice, against a superior powerhouse (Penn State) and against a very good Central Michigan team. I see that Bowling Green has never been favored by more than 4 points. All of a sudden 13? That’s value.

Both have had close games against Kent State, Buffalo, and Ohio. I think Bowling Green is the better team, but their questionable ground game should keep the Zips with-in striking distance.

Cleveland Browns vs Detroit Lions Free NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions (-2.5) Free NFL Pick: It’s hard to think of much to say about this game, but as far as wordy bastards go, I’m pretty much right up there, so you know I’ll give it my best shot.

These teams suck. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a more terrible offense than the thing Cleveland puts out there on a weekly basis, but Detroit’s overall consistently terrible play all over the field makes them hard to watch as well. The fact that Detroit can actually put offensive touchdowns on the score board make them a sexy pick here, especially when you consider that most of Cleveland’s total yards come from a guy that might not play because of an injury on Monday Night’s last second play. Joshua Cribbs is questionable for Sunday’s game.

When you add everything up, the poo and the spit and the tears and the questionable decisions, the rosters, the firings, and all of the disappointment and questions surrounding the Cleveland Browns organization over the last, well, since they became the Browns again anyway, I just don’t see how there’s any other pick in this one besides the Lions.

Detroit is no sure thing, don’t get it twisted, but they have an offense with some solid play makers, they have a quarterback that can stretch the defense, and a receiver that is one of the very best in the NFL. They don’t do much defensively, but I’m not sure they’ll have to. Give me the Lions in a game too ugly for even me to watch. And that’s saying something.

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview

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Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview: I liked the Jaguars a lot coming into the season, and while they’ve played well lately, they still haven’t show enough for me to ever take them as a 9 point favorite, even against a Bills team that JUST fired their coach on Tuesday, seemingly has been outscored 4000 to 17 in 4th quarters during the first 9 games, and is among the league’s worst in stopping the run (something Jacksonville heavily relies on to succeed). Basically, the Bills defense is a good match-up for the Jags, and I’m still not taking the big favorite.

Buffalo has beaten the Jaguars twice in the last 3 seasons despite being the underdog in all three games. Teh Bills are 5-1-1 ATS against the Jags since 1998, they have won 5 of the last 7 match-ups. Buffalo has beaten the Jaguars in Jacksonville 3 of the last 4 times, and I’m sorry to say this, but Buffalo just isn’t as bad as their record (and 4th quarter play) is trying to tell you.

Now, there’s the whole coaching thing, and I want to let everyone know, I picked this game prior to Dick Jauron’s dismissal, but I actually like my chances better since the forever mediocre coach’s departure early Tuesday Morning. There’s two ways a team can go, they can be excited for the new guy or disappointed about the old guy’s departure. I’m guessing this will be option one. If anything, the new coach might pull his head out of the dirty smelling hole Dick Jauron was stuck in and get the Bills to do what they do best, run the damn football. If they do that against the Jags, this cover is as sure as they get. I’m taking a chance here, that’s for sure.

Free NCAA and NBA Basketball Picks: Friday Night

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NCAA Hoops Picks:

Morehead State Eagles (+21) @ Kentucky Wildcats: I know Kentucky got their new coach and a bunch of prized recruits, but this Morehead State team is resilient. They return 4 starters form a year ago, and while they lost a key player in Senior, Leon Buchanan, they have some solid players that have played well against big time competition. Better yet, this team fights, they lost 2 games by more than 20 points last season. The first was just an off night in the 2nd game of the season against Vanderbilt, the 2nd was to Louisville. In the NCAA tournament last season, the Eagles lost by 20 to that same Louisville team. I expect it to take the Wildcats a few games to mesh, and while I fully expect them to win, it wouldn’t surprise me if this one is much closer than 20.

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Wright State Raiders @ Washington Huskies (-14): I just think UW’s overall size and athleticism is too much for the Raiders. It might stay close for a while, but with the way UW gambles and runs the floor, a five point lead could turn into twenty in just a few minutes. Wright State does return 4 starters from last year’s team that finished the season much better than they started. UW loses Justin Dentmon and Jon Brockman, two key cogs in the Huskies success a year ago, but Dentmon’s services will be replaced by fantastic freshman Abdul Gaddy, and Brockman’s absence will only allow the Huskies to run the floor more against lesser teams. UW is long enough to rebound at all positions. I haven’t even talked about Isiah Thomas yet – the sophomore was awesome in his first season with the Huskies, and I only expect him to be better this time around.

NBA Hoops:

Atlanta Hawks (+9) @ Boston Celtics: The first game in ESPN’s double header seems like a great bet. The Hawks are one of the better teams in the East, they play good defense, and this game has definitely turned into a rivalry after a tough playoff match-up. This game is often a close one, finishing 6 points or closer in 5 of the last 8 contests. The road team has won 8 of the last 10, Atlanta has won 3 of the last 5 in Boston. Both teams are coming off a free day. Should be a good one.

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L.A. Lakers @ Denver Nuggets (-3): Gotta like Denver tonight, they haven’t played very well lately, but get the benefit of coming off a long road trip early in the season, and getting to play at home. Whew, what a load off. L.A. didn’t have a real tough game against Phoenix last night, but they still played, and they still are missing their second best player. The Lakers have a chance, of course, they have Mr. Bryant, but I like the Nuggets’ chances. This is the late game on ESPN Friday Night Basketball.

Denver Broncos vs Washington Redskins Free Pick & Preview

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Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins Free Pick & Preview: I picked the spread in this game before the line opened at any books, and while it is down to 3 at most books right now, I have to stand by my pick at -4.5 – I’m not too worried about it, it would be amazing if that one point difference, especially between those two numbers, makes much of a difference in this game. I still don’t see what or why this spread is as small as it is. Obviously some people a lot sharper than me like the Redskins in this one, because it’s not the public, 73% of the public like what they see in the Broncos. That’s another scary number.

But the Broncos have shelled bad teams this year. I’m not sure Washington’s defense is anywhere near as bad as Cleveland, and I don’t think the Redskins are as bad as the Raiders, but Denver made both of those teams look silly. Sure, the Broncos have been blasted (on the score board) two games in a row, but Baltimore and Pittsburgh are no joke, it’s not like they came out and lost to Tampa Bay or anything.

This Broncos team may be struggling running the ball, but the last two weeks they’ve faced arguably two of the better run defenses in the league. They’ll get back on track against the Redskins. I truly believe that. Washington has actually played very well defensively this year, but that offense doesn’t have the firepower to score many points, and I think Josh McDaniels and the Broncos will put up some points in D.C.