Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots Free Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots Free Pick: It’s hard to lose faith in a team, but it’s happened. It takes me more weeks than most, but Tom Brady’s second half woes, the Patriots general effortless (not in a good way) play in the second half, and the teams inability to get the ball in the end zone, has me at a loss for faith. Yes, I no longer believe in my old saying, “Tom can cover anything, anywhere,” and hey, it happens to every team sooner or later.

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New England just hasn’t been able to score, and while they are still winning, and still close to a lock for the playoffs, their inability to put the ball in the end zone, teaming with the oddsmakers continuing to handicap them as if they are the Patriots of the record breaking offense during the undefeated regular season, makes them a fade right now. At least in my book they are.

Listen, you all know what I think of the Jaguars, not much. They don’t go about their business very well, they don’t run the ball as much as they should, and most of the time they underuse their best player, but this is still a team that can put up points. And despite their defensive woes, they can step up their attack in big games. There won’t be a bigger game for Jacksonville than this. Their season is on the line, and while I think the line ends this week in New England (where the Pats are undefeated this season) I still think it’s closer than 9 points. The Pats have found a way to win ugly, and I expect mediocre play from them yet again.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) @ New England Patriots

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview: I think that, when this line came out, the line was reflecting a general prediction that the Colts were going to start resting starters. But when Indy announced that everybody that is healthy will play, all hell broke loose and the lines shot in another direction, and all the while most books don’t even have the game as an option. It’s tough when it’s the Thursday Night game and there’s no real injuries, and still Vegas can’t pull their collective heads out far enough to go with a proper line for the dang thing. But now, Wednesday morning early, the game is a 3 point spread in favor of the Colts, and while it’s no gimmie, I have to like Indy on the road here.

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It’s not Indy as much as it’s Jacksonville, I just can’t trust them. They’re good enough to challenge the Colts – nothing they do is flashy, but they have enough solid play offensively to put up some points, and holding an Indy team that isn’t playing at full strength, for rest or minor injuries, seems possible. Even with their unexciting defense the way it is. But how can you trust the Jaguars? They’re way up, way down, unimpressive at home, terrible on the road, barely beating bad teams, getting killed by a handful, and they just don’t play smart football.

In the end, I trust the Colts more than the Jaguars, and think their football intelligence, as much on the sidelines as on the field, will get them their 14th win over Jacksonville.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars:

Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars Free ATS Pick

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Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars Free ATS Pick This game’s a tough call, and I don’t know if I’m going to be able to fully justify my Dolphins pick, but I just get the feeling that this is the type of game the Jaguars love to lose. It’s the type of team they are going to come out and abandon the run against, putting all the pressure on David Garrard when they have one of the most dynamic players in the NFL in the backfield. Jack Del Rio and his staff can sure find ways to discourage a guy. They lost me at hello.

The Dolphins are a run first, second, and third team, but I know they’ll find plenty of room on play action to get a couple big plays on the shaky Jaguars secondary. Chad Henne has been spreading the ball around well since he took the job, but more importantly, the Dolphins seem completely fine with giving the ball to Ricky Williams 25 times a game since Ronnie Brown got hurt. It’s not as interesting as the Wildcat, but it’s very close to being just as effective. Ricky’s still got it folks, believe that.

The Dolphins have gotten the best of heavy run teams all season long, beating the Jets twice, the Panthers, Bucs, are also coming off a last second win over the Patriots last week – not as if that has anything to do with dominating run-first teams, but I thought it sounded nice, so I threw it in there. I can do that.

Jacksonville has struggled against tough run defenses, getting smacked around by the 49ers, and Titans most recently. They might have won 4 of their last 5, but they didn’t win one of those games by more than 5 points, and despite a 7-5 record, average 4 points less than they give up. Give me the fins!

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Preview and Pick

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Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Preview and Pick: I’ve always been fond of both these teams. I don’t know why, maybe because I was always looking for a team in the South to step it up and take the Colts’ top spot. Stunningly, that was the Titans job last season with Kerry Collins at quarterback. This year, early, I thought both these teams had a chance. Then I watched the Jaguars play a full game, and pretty much crossed them off the list (incompetent coaching being the main reason). Then I watched the Colts for a few weeks and realized nobody was taking their top spot this year. And of course, I watched the Texans quite a few times and saw a Jeckyl and Hyde type deal in single games – they show they can play with anyone, yet they find ways to lose to anyone as well. But that doesn’t mean this one is tough.

I like the Texans, and I don’t even think it’s close. While the Jaguars have the elite runner, I don’t think they have the elite rushing attack. Despite Steve Slaton’s troubles, the Texans still have a solid run-blocking offensive line and a scheme that is much more intelligent than the thing Jacksonville throws out there any given week. And when it comes to passing, as much as I like David Garrard, Matt Schaub is the better player, and Andre Johnson might be the best receiver in the game. Their passing game is better as well. Defensively, I also like the Texans.

But what this game really comes down to is this. The Texans have gained more yardage than 7 of the last 8 teams they’ve faced. The Jaguars, when out-gained, are 1-4 this season. There only win was against Buffalo. The Texans are bound to turn that bad luck around one of these days, and I believe one of these days will be this Sunday in Jacksonville.

Houston Texans (+1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Francisco 49ers Free Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (-3) Free Pick: I am stunned that more people are picking the 49ers than the Jaguars – maybe the public has seen the Jags fly West and noticed the passion and push in which they played with on that occasion. The Hawks blew them out 41-0. Yeah, not a pack of rabid, wicked-smart, fire-breathing, evil-witch hawks, the freaking Seahawks… Maybe it’s because the Jaguars are 2-3 on the road this season, and historically a bad road team. Maybe it’s because San Francisco, despite generally playing ugly football, played tight with the best teams the AFC South has to offer, losing by 3,4, and 7 to the Texans, Colts, and Titans.

Or maybe none of that stuff matters, and what really looks bad for the Jags is how they barely pulled out a win last week and could hardly run the ball effectively against the Buffalo Bills. Or maybe, and this is what I like even more, is that just about every solid run defense has shut down the Jaguars offense this season.

The 49ers may not be pretty on the eye test, and they may be 4-6 on the year and all but out of the playoffs, and they may even be a team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games, but they can stop the run, and despite having one of the best running backs in the league, the Jaguars don’t have a great offensive line.

I think that ends up being enough as the 49ers win by a touchdown or more over the Jaguars. I’m still stunned the public likes San Francisco, it just doesn’t seem like their kind of move. But hey! Good on ya guys, we’re together on this one!

Arses Five Favorites: Week 11 NFL Picks

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Okay, so this is my first picks article ever, and while I’ve said many times that this stuff is easy, we’ll just have to see. I’ve done alright on my own card this year, so Lucky asked me to put my thoughts (that were making me money) down to paper. Since I’ve made most of my money taking favorites, I usually bet 3-5 favorites a game, LL told me to just go with what’s working and select my top five favorites per week (plus he says, Papa has the dogs). He told me that it was okay to go opposite him, which makes me even happier (because like I always say, anything worth playing is worth beating your friends at). Here’s what I got for week 11.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Baltimore Ravens: It’s funny, Lucky got these guys as a dog (though just a point) earlier in the week, I get them here as a favorite, and I have to admit, I’m equally happy. I don’t see a point making the difference. There’s no doubt that the Ravens have some confidence, and they love when nobody gives them a chance, giving them a shot in this game. But Peyton has owned the Ravens, and this isn’t even close to Baltimore’s best secondary they’ve had over the years. This one seems easy enough.

Green Bay Packers (-6) @ home vs. San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have played a lot of close games, and they can run it, but the Packers are definitely a trouble-match-up for San Francisco. They put a lot of pressure on young receivers with their physical corners, and they don’t run the ball that much on offense, so who cares if the 49ers shut down the run well. San Francisco did not play to win last week against Chicago, and they are lucky to hold on against a bad team. I like Green Bay to win by a couple touchdowns.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) @ home vs. Buffalo Bills: The Jaguars have been great of late, and they are feeding their best player the ball. The Bills are a mess, fired head coach, terrible offense, new quarterback, injury ridden defense – nothing much to like there. Jacksonville is better than given credit for.

New England (-10.5) @ home vs. New York Jets: I just don’t see the Jets hanging in there twice in a row. The Patriots weren’t playing well to start the season while the Jets were playing on cloud 9. That hasn’t continued, on either side. The Pats have been back to domination on offense, their defense has been stout, and the Jets have fallen hard in both areas. Injuries and youth have not served them well. Plus you have the Pats coming out fired up, looking for redemption and to put last week’s last second loss to the Colts out of their minds. I expect a Patriots killing.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Chicago Bears: Lucky’s right about this one, the Bears just aren’t good. Neither of these teams have been stellar, but the opportunistic Eagles defense against Jay Cutler – lets just say Va-Jay-Jay Cutler will be making that shame face early and often. I’m looking for him to wrap up the passing title this week, passing to opposing teams that is. Gimmie the Eagles.

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview

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Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview: I liked the Jaguars a lot coming into the season, and while they’ve played well lately, they still haven’t show enough for me to ever take them as a 9 point favorite, even against a Bills team that JUST fired their coach on Tuesday, seemingly has been outscored 4000 to 17 in 4th quarters during the first 9 games, and is among the league’s worst in stopping the run (something Jacksonville heavily relies on to succeed). Basically, the Bills defense is a good match-up for the Jags, and I’m still not taking the big favorite.

Buffalo has beaten the Jaguars twice in the last 3 seasons despite being the underdog in all three games. Teh Bills are 5-1-1 ATS against the Jags since 1998, they have won 5 of the last 7 match-ups. Buffalo has beaten the Jaguars in Jacksonville 3 of the last 4 times, and I’m sorry to say this, but Buffalo just isn’t as bad as their record (and 4th quarter play) is trying to tell you.

Now, there’s the whole coaching thing, and I want to let everyone know, I picked this game prior to Dick Jauron’s dismissal, but I actually like my chances better since the forever mediocre coach’s departure early Tuesday Morning. There’s two ways a team can go, they can be excited for the new guy or disappointed about the old guy’s departure. I’m guessing this will be option one. If anything, the new coach might pull his head out of the dirty smelling hole Dick Jauron was stuck in and get the Bills to do what they do best, run the damn football. If they do that against the Jags, this cover is as sure as they get. I’m taking a chance here, that’s for sure.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets NFL Prediction

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Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-6.5) NFL Prediction: Jacksonville might be one of the toughest teams in the NFL to gauge – they can play so terribly against just about anyone, yet they’ve had a couple good games that remind you how good some of their players are. Starting out the season, they fought the Colts until the end, losing by 2. They also upset Houston on the road and smoked Tennessee. Yet they got killed at home by Arizona, straight pooped on by Seattle, they were taken to overtime by the physical powerhouse that is St. Louis, then they gave Tennessee their first win of the season right before allowing KC to come back late and take them the distance, as the Jags barely won by 3 at home to the Chiefs. Gross. One of the reasons they are so hard to predict is you never know what kind of stunt Jack Del Rio is going to pull. I’m sure there are 10 coaches fired in the last couple years that wake up every day wondering how in the hell this guy still has a job.

These teams may be 4-4, and I guess you have to give some credit where it’s due, because your record truly is the ultimate judge of your ability, but in my not so humble opinion, these two .500 teams couldn’t be more different. The only reason the Jaguars even have a chance in this game is that Kris Jenkins is out for the count. But then again, that who bye week, 2 weeks off to prepare for the Jaguars thing kind of counters that.

I like the Jets to win this one by a couple touchdowns. I don’t expect them to let Maurice Jones-Drew do much. Without MoJo, the Jaguars have nothing, especially when you consider the fact that Revis is going to shut Sims-Walker down.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (+6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Pick: First off, I don’t think the Jaguars have showed me enough consistency to be favored by 6.5 points against anybody in the league, even the Chiefs. A Chiefs team coming off a bye week. A Chiefs team looking for their first real win of the season (Can Washington really count?). A Chiefs team that just got rid of the guy that put himself before the team.

With Jamal Charles getting more touches, the Chiefs have more chances to hit the big play. With Matt Cassel getting more and more practice time with Todd Haley, this offense should get better and better as the season goes forward. I’m not sure what the addition of Chris Chambers will do for this team, but right off hand Chris can come in and make a difference as a guy that blocks well, and plays the right way.

I’ve liked the Jaguars for a long time, but they are a predictable team that just got more predictable when Jack Del Rio limited his quarterback’s audibles, telling him not to check out of MJD runs. (Don’t get me wrong, I would likely tell David Garrard the same thing, I just wouldn’t tell the media.) As if the Chiefs weren’t going to stack the box already.  The Jaguars don’t look like a well-coached team, and they certainly lack physicality outside of MJD.

This game has already moved to 7 at Bodog, and it could make that jump in a lot of books by the end of the week. So far, 62% of the bets like Jacksonville. The Jaguars have been favored twice this season, they’ve lost both ATS. This should be an ugly and close game, so the points look good enough to me.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans NFL Free Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3) NFL Free Pick: The Titans have obviously been brutal, at least lately. People forget that they challenged to win each of their first three games, losing by 3 to the Steelers on opening night, by 3 to the Texans in Week 2, and falling by 7 to the Jets in Week 3. After that it’s pretty much been a vertical slip’n’slide into a pit of lava. The Titans have lost three more since their defeat at the hands of the Jets, getting outscored 127-26. That includes one of the most lopsided defeats in NFL history, a 59-0 drubbing by the Patriots that included 5 touchdown passes in the 2nd quarter alone by Tom Brady. The Titans also lost 17-37 at Jacksonville to start off that three game self destruction. Yes, needless to say, it has been bad in Tennessee.

It hasn’t been flowers, sunshine, and sausage gravy in Jacksonville either. The Jaguars have 3 wins to their names, but most recently needed overtime to beat the Rams (that’s like losing) and prior to that were embarrassed by the Seahawks, of all teams, 41-0 in Seattle. Despite being a running team, Maurice Jones-Drew hasn’t been as effective as many expected, getting held under 70 yards in three games this year, including a 6 carry for 14 yard performance against Tennessee. MJD is still having a solid season, but he’s done that primarily when taking advantage of good match-ups against bad run defenses. The Titans insert Vince Young into the starting quarterback role this week, and that could go one of two ways, bringing the Titans forward or dropping them back. It can’t get much worse than 0-6, no doubt, and, at the very least, Vince Young has been a winner throughout his football career. Will it be enough to win by more than 3 points against the Jaguars? I think so. I think the extra week off helps the Titans, gets them off the snide, and back in the winner’s column.