Tag Archives: Free NCAA Week 12 Football Picks

Boise State Broncos vs Utah State Aggies Free Pick

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Boise State Broncos (-24.5) @ Utah State Aggies Free Pick: Like I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, the Broncos are out for blood and embarrassment every time they lace them up and walk onto a football field. They are a GREAT team and have almost no chance at a National Title. They know that if they put up a stinker, even in a winning fashion, against a team like Utah State, their dream scenario has no chance of coming true. Just look at what they’ve done lately. They’ve won by at least 38 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Last week’s destruction of a solid Idaho team just shows what they can too when given a chance to prove themselves.

This week it’s Utah State – an underrated Aggie team that hasn’t lost by more than 18 points all season long. Now, they haven’t played a team like Boise State, but still, you have to think they’d be a decent value considering their ability to stick within a couple scores of every team they’ve played.

Against great small school teams like BYU and Utah, Utah State held their own losing by 18 on both occasions. There’s a chance that happens again here – but with their winning-margin being important, I know Boise State will do their best to drop 50 on Utah State. With how focused and sound their defense is, I don’t see the Aggies scoring more than 3 touchdowns – even that’s a stretch. 52-17 is about what I expect. The Broncos are too good. The fact that you can get this game for -23 at most books makes Boise even more likely to cover. 45-21 covers for -23 bettors. I need even more.

Colorado Buffaloes vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick

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Colorado Buffaloes @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14.5) Pick: The road team has won this game each of the last 4 times they’ve played dating back to 2001. Colorado is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with winning records. But Colorado is also 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games, as they’ve been a bad road team for some time (0-5 on the road this season). Oklahoma State is 5-2 at home this season, and they seem to beat up on bad teams. 3-7 Colorado fits that description. The Cowboys are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with losing records. They just out-muscle the lesser teams.

Colorado has lost 3 of their last 4, including a 10-17 loss @ Iowa State. The only teams they’ve beaten this year, Wyoming, Kansas, and Texas A&M. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 ATS. Oklahom State is 7-1 in their last 8 games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6, and they are a good team. That last part is key.

This spread has gone way up in since opening at -13.5. I got it at 14.5 on Monday Morning, and if you got my newsletter, you might have gotten to the books before it zoomed all the way up to 19 in some books. Colorado has only lost 1 game by 20 points or more – so I’m not so sure Oklahoma State is a great value all the way up at 19 – I’d probably make that a no-bet. But I think 14.5 still has some value. Two touchdowns and a field goal is about what I predict, with a chance of getting even uglier for the Buffaloes.

Central Michigan Chippewas vs Ball State Cardinals Prediction

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Central Michigan Chippewas (-17) @ Ball State Cardinals Prediction: Dan LeFevour isn’t to be messed with. The kid has done it all for the Central Michigan Chipps – really, he’s done it all. The Chipps are 8-2, 7-2 ATS, and clearly the best team in the MAC West. They are undefeated in conference, with a tough loss to Arizona and a nice win over Michigan State. And who to they have to thank? Dan LeFevour. Dan leads the team in Touchdowns, Rushing Yards, and Passing Yards. He’s thrown 18 touchdowns with just 5 interceptions while completing 70% of his passes for 2189 yards through 10 games. He also has 568 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns in those 10 games. The kid deserves Heisman consideration but will likely never get it because of his “little” school.

Ball State has just one win and that’s because they don’t pass efficiently, completing a low percentage on the season while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. They don’t run the all well either, getting out-rushed in half their games. They out-rushed Eastern Michigan by 300+ yards and still won by just 2 points. Unless CMU hits a wall, this should be a 28 point game at it’s closest.

Central Michigan is 4-2 on the road this season (4-2 ATS as well), Ball State is winless at home (1-4 ATS). Central Michigan is 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 road games. But Ball State is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with winning records. Those numbers mean very little to me, I just thought I’d throw them out there. Central Michigan has had a full week to prepare for this game, it’s been a short week for the Cardinals.

Akron Zips vs Bowling Green Falcons Week 12 NCAA Pick

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Akron Zips (+13) @ Bowling Green Falcons Week 12 NCAA Pick: I thought this line would move the other way. And that’s how it started out. After opening at -12, the Falcons had to give another point by the time I made my decision, and with the public lining up behind the Falcons (73% of the public bet is with Bowling Green), I fully expected this one to get to two touchdowns by mid-week. But it’s moved the other way. Right now, as I write this article, the common line sees the Falcons as just 11 point favorites despite the high public backing. Maybe somebody bigger than me saw what I saw, the Zips as a great value bet on the road.

Now, this one could run away from me, but either way, I still see good value. The Zips may be 0-5 on the road this season, and Bowling Green is 5-5 compared to the Zips 2-8 record, so obviously Akron has become comfortable losing. But they just aren’t as bad as their record insists, and Bowling Green isn’t as good as their 5-5 mark. When I’m looking at value, I’m looking at the lines that have been posted throughout the season. I see that Akron has been a 13 point dog or greater just twice, against a superior powerhouse (Penn State) and against a very good Central Michigan team. I see that Bowling Green has never been favored by more than 4 points. All of a sudden 13? That’s value.

Both have had close games against Kent State, Buffalo, and Ohio. I think Bowling Green is the better team, but their questionable ground game should keep the Zips with-in striking distance.