Tag Archives: Chris Johnson

theRUNDOWN: Week 4

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Okay, after a pretty mediocre Week 3, I’ve got out the big guns and am ready to use them for a huge week. This is where I keep the good stuff… Week 4’s runDOWN son!

QB: Aaron Rodgers vs. Bucs: I don’t think the Bucs secondary can keep up with Jennings, Jones, and Driver – maybe even Lee and Nelson get into the mix. Anyway, Brees threw all over the Bucs. So did Kyle Orton. I like my chances with Rodgers to do the same.

RB: Frank Gore vs. New Orleans: The yards per carry against the Saints defense is ridiculous. I know their secondary isn’t good either, but controlling the ball should be a point of emphasis for the Niners vs. the Rams in Week 4 – Gore is the man for that job.

RB: Marshawn Lynch vs. Car Ram-Rod: The Rams are brutal. Lynch and the Bills will out physical this pathetically weak Ram team. I like Lynch to rush for about 120 yards and score twice.

WR: Brandon Marshall vs. Chiefs: Because if there’s ever a team that can’t d-up Brandon Marshall, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs. The kid is a beast, and he will dominate the Chiefs.

WR: Steve Smith vs. Atlanta: It was premature to pick Steve as a top guy in his first week back – well, he should kill the Falcons secondary on way to a big home win this weekend.

TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. Denver: Gonzo should find lots of room against Denver – the Broncos have a weak secondary with their biggest problem area being safety, the same safeties guarding Gonzo on Sunday.

K: Rian Lindell vs. Ram-Rod: I’m sure I’ll look bad again here, but how can you not like the Bills kicker against this defense? (I know why, because I picked him to have a big day, that’s the best anti-pick you could have).

D: Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore: Pittsburgh should shut down the Ravens offense in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are dominant at home, and the Ravens won’t be able to run the ball. Pass? Interceptions. Thanks for playing.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Kerry Collins: This is a big sleeper, but Collins will have to throw a lot, some dump downs to Chris Johnson, and some deep balls to keep the Vikings honest. He could very well go for 200+ yards and throw 2 touchdowns. He could be a great fill in for Week 4 if you happen to have the Manning brothers dancing around on your team as 1 and 2.

Trent Edwards: You bet! Trent should have a brilliant day against the worst team in football.

Carson Palmer: He’ll have another startable week against the Browns. After one decent week, I’m willing to bet the Bengals offense is back for good.

Maurice Jones Drew: After two bad weeks, JD was a sleeper pick last week. I think you should start him again.

DeAngelo Williams: I like D-Lo’s chances against the Falcons this week. I think he’ll get more carries to start with and make the most of them.

Selvin Young: I think Young gets his highest number of carries so far this season. He’ll also have his highest yardage total and most fantasy points of the year.

Bernard Berrian: A tough match-up? You bet, but Berrian will be the only offensive hope the Vikings have against the TItans. Those Titans don’t allow rushing yards – not many passing yards either, but that seems to be the only way to get them.

Jerry Porter: Porter should be back to full health, and the Jaguars seem to need him. He could be a nice start in his first game action with the Jags, especially against the Texans secondary.

Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson: After a down week for both guys, they have decent match-ups. The Eagles will have to throw against the Bears, and Jackson can get lost in that secondary. The Broncos should be able to do whatever they want against the Chiefs, and Royal should benefit.

Owen Daniels: Daniels should find open spaces in Jacksonville’s secondary, and Matt Schaub will be looking to get his sure hands tight end the ball more.

Buffalo: I like Denver in Week 4, a bad secondary, yes, but they’ll be taking some chances against the Chiefs, and those quick corners can jump some routes.

Papa’S Week 4 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

LenDale White: He’ll get less carries than Chris Johnson this week – and the Vikings won’t be giving away yards like they’re free.

Ryan Grant: I really like Grant, and I’m sure he’ll be fine – but that will just have to wait until next week when they aren’t playing the Bucs.

Clinton Portis: Portis could be in for a rough one against the Cowboys. Dallas has a fine history of shutting down opposing backs. You probably don’t have a better option, but if you do, you might consider the switch.

Brandon Lloyd: The Eagles secondary is for real. Lloyd was a nice player last week, but don’t buy the hype, not this week anyway.

Three for Thursday: Week 3

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I figured I might as well put up a couple of my pre-season predictions that aren’t only looking good, but brilliant as of heading into Week 3. Without patting myself on the back any harder, here’s three big ones…

1. The first prediction I’m sharing is actually 2 predictions, and both look good. “Chris Johnson will lead the Titans in yards (receiving and rushing combined).” and “Chris Johnson is the NFL’s version of Usain Bolt.” Of course he is. I love sharing this one because my uncle and I fought hard on this one, so much so that he threw up a prediction that LenDale would lead the Titans in fantasy points. Newsflash pops, I was right about this kid. He’s too quick not to get the ball to, and check this out, he runs like a tough man. He’s already supposed to get more touches in Week 3. That doesn’t bode well for LenDale owners, and it surely doesn’t look good for your prediction or the poor Houston Texans defense they’ll be going up against. Yhatzee!

2. Yet another two predictions deep for this one… “Tom Brady won’t throw more than 35 touchdowns this season,” and even better yet, “(Two of Three) Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, and Tom Brady will miss at least one football game due to injuries.” You have to admit, it’s looking good. I’m not one to hope for injuries, but Brett is in a new system that has him thinking a bit more, plus the law of averages isn’t on his side (never hurt, really old – put it together). But I’m guessing Peyton is the guy that misses a game. His offensive line is struggling, and he doesn’t get his center back for a few weeks. I hope not, because even though I’m not the biggest fan of the guy, he’s a great football player for sure and I don’t want anyone to ever get hurt, but don’t be surprised if he gets dinged here in the next couple games. That would make this prediction 100% true.

3. “Frank Gore will eclipse 1,500 total yards, 70 receptions, and score 10+ touchdowns. ” There were a lot of people, “experts” out there ready to give Gore a busty title before the season even started. Not I. I knew that Gore was the quickest way for Mike Martz to score points, and if there’s ever been anything that guy likes to do it’s eat Popeye’s Chicken and score points. After two games, Mr. Gore has 157 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, and 9 catches for 93 receiving yards. Besides the touchdowns, which I think will come, he’s on pace (lets say he plays 14 games) to rush for 1,100 yards, catch 63 balls for 651 yards and score 7 times. That looks about right. He doesn’t have to play tough defenses and he is the man in San Fran. Roll on Mr. Gore!

Five for Friday: Week 2

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Avoiding 0-2: It’s very common for a team to start 1-1, happens most of the time. Don’t be surprised if most teams are 1-1 headed into week 3. Taking that into account, expect solid games out of fantasy players in San Diego, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Houston, and Cleveland – all are looking to stay away from the 0-fer, and that is just more motivation to shine. 

BEAST of Burden: That’s what Brandon Jacobs is going to be for the Rams tacklers this week in St. Louis. I’m pretty sure he goes around singing his version of the great Stones’ song like this, “I’ll always be your beast of burden, tackle me, your shoulders will be hurtin’ – never ever ever ever ever ever ever get in my waaaayyyyyy…” For a team that struggles to stop the run anyway, it will be frustrating to see a 270lb 6’4″ running back barreling down on you. Nobody likes that garbage. Expect a big game from Jacobs. 

Re-Thinking it?: Holmgren left open a return to the NFL, but I don’t think that will help the Hawks much. It’s hard to play for a coach, give it all up for a guy, put yourself out there for a man that won’t be with you next year. He’s kind of a lame duck coach right now, and in response to my article I’m sure, he tried to give them something to play for. We’ll see how it works. 

Load Carries Load: He’s definitely not the more talented back in Tennessee, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see LenDale White carry the load in Cincinnati when his Titans take on the Bengals. Cincinnati has a tough time tackling anyone, and a big load of a guy like White is a real test for them I’m sure. Both backs will get their looks, but like I said, everyone is giving the job to Chris Johnson right now, and I expect a nice fantasy day and more touches for White. 

35-31?: Not the Vikings powerful defense? That’s right, I’m predicting 60+ points to be scored in Minnesota this weekend, and that’s not counting college games. The Vikings will run (and throw, you’ll see) while the Colts find spaces to fire the ball all over the field. Big game for Peyton in Week 2, and I also believe they’ll get the win to even out their record to 1-1.

Three for Thursday: Week 2

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What Would I do for a Klondike Bar? How about a healthy offensive line!: More than a couple quarterbacks are pondering that exact question this week, and that should make you worry too. That’s right, the Jaguars, Seahawks, Vikings, and Colts are all down at least one key guy on their respective offensive lines. The Jags, Hawks, and Colts look to be really hurting, while it’s just Tarvaris Jackson’s blind-side hurting in Minnesota. This week, the Jags play the Bills, a tough defensive front, and their offensive fantasy players should all be downgraded because of it. The Vikings play the Colts, so play them at will. The Colts, in turn, play the Vikes, that can’t be a good match-up for Joseph Addai, and Peyton might have to throw a little quicker, but he’s still a nice play. The Hawks go up against the 49ers, and if there was ever a good time to play Julius Jones, it’s probably now, but he, by no means, is a safe bet – even against that defensive line in San Fran. I’m just saying, the health of the big guys (or lack there of) is a big reason for success (or lack there of). Keep that in mind when setting your lineups.

What a Year for Rookies? Or what a first week?: It has often been said that rookies can’t be trusted unless they are running backs put into a great situation. Some have beaten that advice (Larry Fitz, even more so Anquan Boldin, Michael Clayton, Dwayne Bowe had a solid year, and a couple others for sure) but for the most part, there are more rookies with nice weeks than nice innagural seasons. Still, I can’t help but recognize the difference makers throughout this rookie class – and you should take notice as well. Guys not picked in the first round, players like Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Smith, Matt Forte, John Carlson – and then 1st rounders like Stewart, Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Matt Ryan – these guys all seem pretty legit. Was week 1 just a coming out part for the rooks, and week 2 will be a blast of reality? It’s tough to say, but right now I’m going with the greatness of this class that was supposed to be void of solid receivers and high on super talents that hadn’t figured it out yet. Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson, among others, figured out how to rock week 1 like a champ.

The Great Wall of… CINCINNATI?: Don’t bet on it. The Titans look to be a team destined to have two 100+ yard rushers in the same week for the first time this year. Kerry Collins has the deep arm to keep the Bengals secondary honest, and even then, it’s not as if they can tackle. Good luck catching Chris Johnson, and even better luck trying to bring down the bulk that is LenDale White. This box score is going to look like a Navy football game – run, run, and then run some more. Maybe a better question is what are the Bengals going to do to fix their offense? Sign Shaunna Alexander… Oh great, that’s going to work wonders! Sigh.

theRUNDOWN Review: Week 1

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Not a terrible week, but I didn’t kill it either. Per usual, I’m looking for 140+ points from this group of penguins every week – that’s a huge week, but I can pick anyone so while it’s a lofty goal, it’s not impossible. Total for this week……. 114, pretty close, really, just a couple misses (QB, TE, K) hurt me. Here’s the damage:

QB: Kurt Warner vs. San Francisco: Warner didn’t approach 500 yards this time, and he was the 18th rated fantasy quarterback in Week 1. That’s good for 13 points for the old man. He’ll be better I’m sure.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Carolina: LT didn’t score. I figured as much, because he had scored every other damn opening day – ha. Anyway, he still managed solid yardage totals, good for 13 fantasy points and he was the 16th rater runner this weekend.

RB: Marion Barber vs. Cleveland: Barber torched the Browns defensive line. He didn’t even play in the 4th quarter as he had a minor injury and the Boys didn’t need him anymore. He still as the 4th overall fantasy back and scored 25 points in Week 1. Not too shabby, 16 carries for 80 yards, 2 scores, and 3 catches for 21 yards as well. My man.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Kansas City: Randy was the 5th rated wide receiver in my ppr league, scoring 21 fantasy points. Even with Tommy out of the lineup, Randy can still do work with the best of them.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Cleveland: Owens was 7th overall with 19 fantasy points. I can’t complain. I would have liked Dallas to throw it more, but the way they were running the ball, it makes sense to hand it off.

TE: Tony Scheffler vs. Oakland: Tony had a touchdown bounce off his chest, and he got tackled at the 5 yard line after a 72 yard catch and run. Those were his only points on the day, and on a big day for no-named tight ends, this wasn’t a great pick. Still, 8 points isn’t horrible for a TE.

K: Josh Brown vs. Philadelphia: 1 field goal. 3 points. I really can’t pick a good kicker to save my life.

D: Patriots vs. Kansas City: The Patriots ranked 8th overall with 14 fantasy points. Not a great day, but I should have expected KC to play it safe and limit mistakes. Still, 8th isn’t bad.

Papa’s Week 1 SLEEPERS

Matt Schaub: Matt had a tough time of it against a Steelers team that was out for blood. Still, late in the game he tossed a couple touchdowns and ended up the 15th rated passer, scoring 14 fantasy points. He’ll have better days. B-

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers was super efficient. He tossed 22 balls and completed 18 of them. He also scrambled around a few times and added a rushing touchdown to his passing touchdown. 22 points, 5th overall for quarterbacks, yep – that’s what I was thinking. A

Chris Johnson: The NFL’s version of Usain Bolt killed it in Week 1. Getting half the carries he still put up 21 fantasy points, good for 8th overall. He caught passes, ran well, and scored a touchdown on 93 rushing yards. He’s going to be a good one. A

Maurice Morris: The Hawks were bad, but Morris was getting the carries before he went down with a knee injury that will sideline him for a few weeks. 6 carries for 31 yards is all he could muster. I’ll take a D, it would have been an F if he played the entire game and tallied these totals.

Matt Forte: 7th rated runner in Week 1- I told ya. A

Nate Burleson: Despite getting lost for the season because of a knee injury, Burleson had a nice game. He caught 5 balls for 60 yards and a touchdown. He was in the Top 10 amongst receivers. I’ll take that for a nice: A.

Roddy White: Roddy had 2 catches for 54 yards, and just 7 fantasy points for a receiver in a ppr isn’t good. But the Falcons didn’t have to throw ever if they didn’t want to. He’ll be a better option against better teams, believe it or not. C-

Robert Meachem: Meachem didn’t even play. He was inactive. I don’t know why New Orleans would do this to the kid, talk about crushing any pre-season momentum whatsoever. I’ll take my F, but crap, what a raw deal – for both of us.

Zach Miller: 34 yards for Miller – not the worst thing that could have happened, not like he was Todd Heap or anything (-1 point for that glass man). Still, I’ll take my C- here, it wasn’t good enough.

Bengals: This was surely a sleeper pick I won’t go back to. Still, the Bengals had a nice return score on a fumble and held the Ravens to just 17 points. They had a nice day, and if you started them you probably liked the points you got, but hated watching them play football. B+

LUCKY’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Drew Brees: Brees killed it. 2nd to only McNabb amongst QBs with 29 points. Yeah, I was wrong, okay.

Ryan Grant and Adrian Peterson: Grant had 91 yards and Peterson had 103 and a touchdown. Neither had great days, but both were definitely solid. Still, like I said, if you have a nice #3 option, I would have used him.

Bernard Berrien: Berrien had 30 yards, 3 fantasy points, and the Packers corners owned him again. Still, now might be a good time to go get the speedy receiver, he’ll have better days.

Willie Parker: I couldn’t have missed this by a bigger margin. Parker had 3 touchdowns and was #2 amongst all running backs with 31 fantasy points. He also rushed for 138 yards I reckon.

Ten for Tuesday: Week 2

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Yeah, Week 1 is officially in the books and I’ve got 10 big ones for Tuesday’s column. Some surprised, some disappointed, and then their were guys that had my jaw dropping – both good and bad. Read up and see who else I liked besides the stellar rookie wideout in Denver, Eddie Royal.

  1. Thomas Brady: I’m not sure if his name is Thomas, but it sounded more formal. Now that he’s done for the year and the Patriots Championship dreams are crushed, I figure using the more somber title is more appropriate. Give your head a shake!!! Tom may be down and out, but the Patriots chances to win are still solid, just like yours. That’s right, just because of one injury it doesn’t mean that you’re down and out. First of all, the Patriots still have one of the best teams in the league, and now they’ll just have to do it with Matt instead of Tom. Trading the best quarterback in the league for a career back-up (yes, even in college Matt was a back-up) isn’t the best deal in the world, but there’s ways to win football games just like there’s ways for you to win at fantasy. Here are some guys that will manage as the season moves forward. Chad Pennington, Matt Ryan, JaMarcus Russell, Jason Campbell, and Tarvaris Jackson (that’s right, they’ll all be decent). Some guys that could be great: Jake Delhomme and Matt Cassel. Matt still has two great receivers and an offense that is genius in what they do. Jake will get Steve Smith back and be even better than he was in Week 1. Don’t lose your marbles because you spent a 1st round pick on a guy that played half a quarter – that dream is dead, move forward, make it work and it will be just that much more refreshing.

  2. Eddie Royal is a Best!: No receiver looked quicker this weekend than Eddie Royal did. Not only did he look awesome, but he should have had another touchdown, but he lined up a foot too far back and some ref decided to be a stickler. So what. This kid is no one-day wonder, and he will do good things even as Brandon Marshall comes back. He’s a tireless worker and has the respect of everyone that means anything on that Bronco team. Don’t pass up the chance to get him if he’s still available.

  3. Chris Johnson: Told you. I’ve been saying it for a long time, and I figure now is the time where everyone believes me. Honestly, I’m not sure if he’ll do as well with Kerry Collins in, because now defenses don’t have to worry about Vince running, but he should still get more carries than LenDale White. Don’t trade the world for him, but if you can pick him up, or give some sad Brady owner a decent new starting quarterback to get him, I’d jump on it.

  4. And the Bush Growith: I missed on this prediction – that’s for sure. The Bucs had always held Bush to very little, but on Sunday Reggie showed us a little something. Hopefully that big performance and game winning touchdown gives the kid a little more confidence. I don’t know how a guy that gets to follow that Kim girl’s butt around can lack so much confidence, but he has rarely looked like a confident back. I’m not sure if this is a thing to come, but prior to the pre-season I was really high on Bush. I thought he’d score more touchdowns this season than any other year, and the way he was utilized on Sunday, I might have to go back to that prediction. Go Reggie! Go Kim!

  5. Mike Tuner for President: In just about every single draft I had I picked this guy. There were a lot of reasons for that, but 220 yards and 2 touchdowns on 20 touches wasn’t one of them. That’s right, even my lofty expectations weren’t that high. And now, now that I’ve seen what Turner can do in that new offensive scheme in Atlanta, I think he has a chance in 2008 to take the presidency. You won’t be able to get him – probably, but if you Steven Jackson owners know what’s good for you, you’ll try to trick an unsuspecting Turner owner into a great “value” trade. You Turner owners should ignore that stupid term and worse idea – but not everyone reads this article (unfortunately) so do what you can do.

  6. Seattle’s Raining Receivers: They are coming down like cats and dogs. First Branch at the end of last season. Then Engram. Now Burleson. Nate had a lot of upside coming in, and many fantasy owners, such as myself, were expecting big things from the talented wideout. So sad, so sorry, so long for that idea. Nate is out for the year. But this is the time to go get Deion Branch and maybe Engram too. You can probably stash them on your IR, if your league has one, and even then, it’s likely that both receivers have more value than some #5 and #6 receivers you have right now. They might play as early as Week 3, and probably by the Hawks 4th game of the season. Do work early and be happy later.

  7. Dallas Does Debbie – err, Cleveland: Okay, feel free to look back at my Five for Friday article to properly appreciate this prediction. The Cowboys looked brilliant where the Browns looked like, well, like everyone expected the Browns to be last season before they turned everything around. You know what, here’s a quote from my article on Friday, “The Cowboys are going to do what the Colts did to the Saints to start the ‘07 season, and many a people are going to be seen ripping out their hair because they put all their chips in the Brown doo-doo. Nobody likes brown doo-doo. But when this does happen, feel free to take advantage of those hair-rippers. Unlike you, most fantasy fans erupt prematurely like the apple pie kid. Week 1 and 2 are times where calm people build season-long dynasties.” There – now if you didn’t read that, then at least you get the gist of what’s important now (also known as W.I.N).

  8. Duddly Do Rights: The Eagles did everything right against the Rams. Defensively, but especially offensively, there was no team more wide open and efficient in what they did than Philly. The Eagles are known for their ability to lay an egg or two, from time to time, but they sure kicked the season off with a full-blown shellacking. Atlanta looked glorious against the Lions. It wasn’t only Mike Turner – it was everyone in Atlanta’s offense. Matt Ryan looks like the read deal, one of the best quarterback prospects in a while, Jerious Norwood looked good too, and so did that receiving corps. In the chances they got, this team flourished all over. You have to love that for a Falcons group that has gone through some turmoil in the recent past. Denver did work, too. Their best receiver might not have been the guy that had to sit this game out after all. Okay, too fast? Maybe. But Eddie Royal is the sure-thing #2 for a reason. He’ll be special when his career is over. And Jay Cutler is going to be a great one. Not a good one. Not a pro-bowler. He’s going to be an MVP type hall-of-famer by the time his career is over. Denver did a lot of good, and a lot of it was because of Jay.

  9. Duddly Do Wrongs: Cincinnati – to start with, everything. Carson looked bad, but the routes were shoddy, the defense was horrendous, and the offensive line had me thinking Carson was going to join Tom in an “out for the year” scenario. Marvin Lewis better get back to the drawing board before Bengals’ brass send it out in a box. Seattle – where or where have you gone? I know the receiving corps is depleted, but ask Donovan McNabb, is that any reason to leave your game in Seattle? The Hawks need to run the ball more and ask an injured Matt Hasselbeck to do less. The load rests on Julius Jones’ shoulders next week – I think he’ll step up. Houston – defensively, you are worrying me. You have solid linebackers, two great defensive linemen, and while that doesn’t mean your secondary is great, it does mean you shouldn’t give up 130+ yards to Willie Parker and crew. Show me something next week, but more importantly, don’t leave your game at home when you play on the road – that garbage is embarrassing. Still, Schaub is going to be good, and Andre Johnson will light up the airways with him.

  10. Trick Love the Kids: Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Ray Rice – There are other kids I like as well, but these three guys should run wild next week in their respective match-ups. Chris will torment a Bengals team that can’t tackle a slow 7th grader. Matt Forte will give the Panthers defense more yards than LT did last week, And Ray Rice will have more yards on less carries against the Texans. There it is, Ten for Tuesday. See you tomorrow!

theRUNDOWN: Week 1

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2008’s Week 1 is upon us. Thursday Night’s contest pitting the Giants against their in-conference rival Redskins makes for good TV, but does that match-up make for good fantasy fun? Hard to tell. I have a sleeper or two from that group, but as far as fantasy studs, I’ll stay away. These are my favorite players to start, some sleepers, and some guys to avoid on Sunday – This is theRUNDOWN for Week 1 – write this down!

QB: Kurt Warner vs. San Francisco: Last time Kurt played the Niners he approached 500 passing yards. He didn’t get it, but he surely sniffed it. I don’t think he’ll do that kind of colossus damage, but he should be one of the best starting options in Week 1. I’ll take him as my quarterbacking bell-cow.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Carolina: I have to take LT because he’s scored on opening day in every single season but one in his NFL career. That’s something right? He doesn’t have the best match-up ever, but he’s still going to show the Panthers a thing or two.

RB: Marion Barber vs. Cleveland: I know the Browns got much better defensively, but I just have a feeling. This is wear I put guys down that I have feelings about.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Kansas City: Because why not? Moss is one of the best receivers in the game and he’s going to KC where nobody on the roster can guard him. Seems like a no-brainer.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Cleveland: Yes, I will start TO and Randy and smile the whole time. Cleveland’s secondary doesn’t stand much of a chance against the Cowboys passing attack – TO is a big reason why. The only guy I’d consider instead of Owens is Calvin Johnson, but I figured I’d start with Randy and TO and go from there.

TE: Tony Scheffler vs. Oakland: Without Brandon Marshall I just have to believe Scheffler gets about 10 targets on Monday Night. That’s good enough for me to give him the nod.

K: Josh Brown vs. Philadelphia: Brown struggled in the pre-season, making me wonder if Seattle can see the future. I doubt it though, why would they have resigned Shaunna Alexander if they could see the future? Its an ongoing joke that I can’t pick good kicking options- we’ll see if that continues through Week 1.

D: Patriots vs. Kansas City: I just feel like the Patriots are pretty good and the KC offense is horrendous. Is that wrong?

LUCKY’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Matt Schaub: I think Warner could be a bit of a sleeper, but since I took him as my top option, he really doesn’t work here. In that case I’ll roll with Matt Schaub. I think he can do his part to torch the Steelers defense despite most people predicting a Pittsburgh beat down.

Aaron Rodgers: You bet – this kid is going to be good. Why not start in Week 1 against a suspect secondary?

Chris Johnson: He needs to make one guy miss and then run away from everyone else. I think CJ will be a lot like Maurice Jones Drew in MJD’s rookie run. Even against Jax, I like CJ as a sleeper.

Maurice Morris: It seems like a lot of people don’t realize it, but Morris is the starter in Seattle. They go up against a Bills team that doesn’t do many things great defensively. I am willing to bet that Morris is a double digit fantasy scorer this Sunday.

Matt Forte: This rookie goes up against the Colts. That’s what I’m saying. He’s starter worthy.

Nate Burleson: He’s the #1 target in Seattle and while that would normally give him the opposing defense’s best corner back, Buffalo really doesn’t have one of those. He’s a nice option on Sunday.

Roddy White: After a great ’07 season Roddy seemed to fall down in drafts for some reason. I wonder if it’s because Atlanta’s QB play last year was good and this year they have a rookie? Hmmm… Nope, they just cut the guy that started most of ’07. I like Roddy no matter who is throwing him the ball.

Robert Meachem: There’s a chance Meachem is the deep threat right off the bat in New Orleans. With Tampa giving Colston, Shockey, and Bush lots of attention I have a feeling Meachem could get loose for a couple big plays.

Zach Miller: The Raiders will have to throw the ball to someone on Monday against Denver. Miller won’t be getting blanketed by Champ Bailey or Dre Bly. So yeah, I think he’s a top 12 starting option this weekend.

Bengals: One would hate to ever have to start the Bengals week in and week out, but they should make some plays against the Ravens sputtering offense. (Yes, they will sputter early). There are worse defenses out there, and the Bengals have the playmakers to score a touchdown or two.

LUCKY’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Drew Brees: The proof is there, this high scorer rarely does a lot of damage against the Bucs – if you have a decent back-up option, start him instead.

Ryan Grant and Adrian Peterson: I don’t think either of these defensive lines will allow a 100 yard rusher in Week 1 – even though AP and Grant are beasts, this isn’t a good match-up for either of them.

Bernard Berrien: I like BB’s chances to have a great season, but he just seems to get pushed around by the physical corners in Green Bay. We’ll see, but there’s a good chance that continues.

Willie Parker: I like me some Fast Willie Parker, but I think Houston is much improved up front, and they will make Pittsburgh beat them through the air.

It looks like I’ll have a nice little team on my bench this week.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 1 ('08)

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Lets get right to it. You know the gig, you ask questions and I answer them. For God’s sake it’s not that freaking much of a scientific experiment to get all hoogily boogily about – but it is some sound advice that just might be able to help out this weekend. Let the games begin!

David says, “I have Kevin Walter and Eddie Royal as backups, and while i like both of their respective upsides, would you drop one f them to pick up one of the following players? – Deion Branch, DJ Hackett, Donte Hall, Jabar Gaffney, Steve Breaston…

Boy, I would say that I like DJ and Branch just as much as I like Walter – and Royal is a rookie receiver so the chances of him being a good option right off teh bat just aren’t as good – but, I really like Royal, think he’s the best receiver in the draft, and I’d hang on to him for a week just to see how he’s used in Denver. I love Hackett, really, last year I thought he was the best receiver in Seattle. Now he gets to play opposite Steve Smith – if he stays healthy – and that if is harder to comeby with him than just about anyone else. Gaffney, you’re right about him, there’s reason to be intrigued by the guy playing #3 in that offense. BUt I don’t think his upside is as high as DJ, Branch, Royal, or Walter – so I’d stikc with the guys you have. THe biggest sure thing you have is Deion Branch. I would pick him up and drop Walter right now. Branch is supposed to play in Week 3 or after their week 4 bye… He’s a stud. He’ll likely be Seattle’s #1 when he gets back and he’ll play 12 games thi syear – that’s worth a roster spot. Dropping Walter won’t kill you. He could be good this year, but I don’t think his upside is 1000 yards and 8 touchdowns, so you don’t have to keep him because both Hackett and Branch do have that upside. You could drop Royal – Walter is a safer bet than Royal, but I’m not a huge safe bet guy in this respect – take the guy with the most ability: that’s my motto – that’s Royal.

Slick Doug from Bremerton asks, “Who would you start at running back between these four soldiers? Adrian Peterson, Thomas Jones, Steven Jackson, and Michael Turner – I can only start two.”

Not many people are going to like this, but I would roll without AP in my starting lineup for Week 1. I know, it seems just crazy enough to predict that I am soon to be described as senile – but what if I’m right? Thomas Jones plays the Dolphins, Jackson plays the Eagles, and Turner has to go up against that old run-stuffing juggernaut in Detroit. AP plays against a very good and young Packers defense and he won’t have the luxury of his pro-bowl offensive tackle, Bryant McKinnie, to help pave the way. Losing a stud on the outside is a tough deal, especially against Green Bay. You’ve done a great job grabbing back-ups, and this is a good time to use that flexibility. If you can handle sitting two of the best backs in the league, I would go with Mike Turner and Thomas Jones – but that’s just me. I think Steven Jackson is a nice option though, so he could be the answer. The Eagles aren’t a great run-defense by any means, and if Jackson hadn’t missed the entire pre-season I would go with him. I just think Jones and Turner get 20+ carries easily, and that will be good enough for the girls I go with.

Davis in Dillingham, AK writes, “Even us Alaska folk play fantasy football – but we also have questions. I recently got a full dynasty keeper league trade offer from my buddy, Calvin Johnson and Larry Johnson for Jospeh Addai and Roy Williams. I love Calvin – would you do it?”

Tough call Davis. To start with I’ve been in Dillingham a couple times, been up fishing for salmon once or twice, haha. Tough climate up there in the Winter, eh? Anyway, it doesn’t seem like good value – your trade that is. Addai is so young and part of a great offense that gives him lots of red zone looks without wearing him down. I like LJ but I would be surprised if he has many years left in his tank – plus the Chiefs abuse his body something fierce. Like I said, I love Calvin Johnson but he’s not that huge of an upgrade to Roy Williams. Williams is getting a bad wrap this season, but before his injury he was just about on pace to match his 2006 numbers last year. He’ll be a good option, and Addai is much better than LJ for the future. Hold your cards!

Tiny Tim in Wyoming asks, “Do you have any crazy sleeper advice headed in to Week 1? Any guy that I should get my hands on before I lose a chance?

If Chris Perry is still on your waiver wire, I’d grab him. The same goes for Chris Johnson and DJ Hackett. Hackett has been dropped by a lot of people recently, because of his pre-season ailments, but he should start and have a very good chance to look good in week 1. I say go for one of these three guys because they all have tough defensive match-ups, and if they play well right off the bat, their stock will go sky high. All 3 have a nice chance to really produce this season if they stay healthy. Chris Johnson is a favorite here at LL.com.

Okay, remember, if you want your fantasy questions answered, just send an email to papaweimer50@hotmail.com.

Papa's Predictions

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So what, I’m old and these damn computer things seem to get the best of me at every turn. I need glasses to watch the game, and sometimes I yell “fumble” while sitting all by myself on my big ass chair in my big ass living room on my big ass. Oh, and sometimes there was no fumble at all – forgot to mention that. In fact, I seem to forget from time to time as well. Screw it, all that jazz doesn’t even matter because when it comes to football I surely know my game. I’ve said some things that have been wrong, but that only accounts for 3 instances in my football existence. So, when asked to do my predictions I figured, what the hell. Sure, the nephew might be able to actually keep tabs on the things I predict now, but that just gives me one more chance to prove my football knowledge dominance in this family tree. Let the predictions begin with glory and rapture!!!

 

  1. Vince Young – Top 5 fantasy quarterback in leagues that award only 4 points for throwing touchdowns.
  2. LenDale – more fantasy points than Chris Johnson in every format, except maybe PPR – that will be a close race. 
  3. Earnest Graham won’t get 20+ carries in more than 3 games this season – and that bites into his value.
  4. Deion Branch – best fantasy receiver in Seattle (total points).
  5. LeSean McCoy will be a better professional running back than Beanie Wells – and he will be something (draft him in leagues where that’s a part of it).
  6. Willis McGahee – 1200+ rushing yards for the Ravens.
  7. Edgerrin James will break the 1000-yard mark once again.
  8. My nephew thinks Calvin Johnson will be a Top 15 WR – he’ll be a Top 5 WR – my nephew will edit this article and I thank him for that.
  9. Matt Ryan – much better fantasy quarterback than Joe Flacco this season – but neither will bust the Top 20.
  10. Chad Pennington will bust the Top 20, and throw at least 20 touchdowns if he plays more than 12 games.
  11. Jerchio Cotchery – easily outscore Coles in New York.
  12. Selvin Young – the leading rusher in the NFL headed into Week 7.
  13. Kurt Warner will get hurt in the first four weeks, allowing Matt Leinart to take the starting job back and keep it for the duration of the season – the entitled little bastard.
  14. DeAngelo Williams gets 66% of the carries in Carolina and rush for 1000+ yards for the first time in his career.
  15. Dustin Keller – Top 10 fantasy tight end by seasons end.
  16. So will Greg Olsen.
  17. Nate Burleson – scores double digit touchdowns in Seattle again.
  18. Steve Slaton will lead the Texans backfield, and will approach 80 receptions.
  19. Marion Barber – best running back this season in fantasy land.
  20. Brain Westbrook won’t play more than 11 games – as much as I love the guy.
  21. Chris Perry – top 15 fantasy running back.
  22. Frank Gore – top 5 fantasy back.
  23. Randy Moss – catches less than 15 touchdowns, but still has a great season – more catches this year.
  24. Chad Johnson figures out that the Bengals don’t have a chance by Week 6 – that’s when he opts for season ending surgery – he gets traded in 2009.
  25. The SeaChickens don’t win the NFC West this year.
  26. Neither do the freaking Niners.
  27. LT scores in each of his first four games to start the season.
  28. Adrian Peterson won’t break the Top 5 running back list in 2008.
  29. Willie Parker revisits his 2006 form and finishes the year with 1300+ yards and 9 touchdowns or more. (nephew thinks this is crazy old man speak)
  30. Plaxico Burress – his best statistical season, don’t believe my nephew’s bad ju-ju.
  31. Steve Smith – will be the #2 in New York and catch 65 balls at least.
  32. Steve Smith – Carolina’s best weapon puts up 12 touchdowns and finishes in the Top 5 amongst per-game fantasy receiver.
  33. Brandon Marshall – does work in Denver, grabbing 100+ balls in 15 games.
  34. Rookie receiver James Hardy will lead all rookie receivers in touchdowns.
  35. Tony Scheffler – Top 5 TE.
  36. The Ravens will lose at least 12 games.
  37. Santana Moss – ready? – 1300+ yards, 9+ touchdowns, 80+ grabs – believe it. 
  38. Ronald Curry finally meets my nephew’s expectations now that he hasn’t said anything about him recently – 1000+ yards and 6 or more scores in 08.
  39. Chris Henry – more touchdowns for the Bengals than Chad Johnson gets.
  40. Adam “Pacman” Jones never gets in trouble again – he also plays offense a little this season and scores at least 4 touchdowns.
  41. Jamal Lewis will be a great buy-low candidate after Week 3 – get him then and reap the benefits. (nephew thinks this is a great call)
  42. Ryan Grant is going to be a beast – 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns are not out of the question.
  43. Reggie Bush – 10+ total touchdowns this season, his highest total of his career.
  44. Deuce McAllister will lead the Saints in rushing yards -even on 3 bad knees.
  45. Maurice Jones Drew – 200+ carries for 1200+ yards and scores at least 14 times – and welcome to JD being a Top 5 fantasy pick for the next 4 years.
  46. Tarvaris Jackson – 20+ touchdowns for the Vikings. (interesting says the nephew)
  47. So does Jason Campbell, but not for the Vikings.
  48. Anquan Boldin catches more balls than Larry Fitzgerald.
  49. Marvin Harrison catches 80+ balls and scores between 8-12 times.
  50. Terrell Owens will lead all receivers in touchdowns – damn his black heart. 

Super Sleepers: Fantasy Football 2008

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Sleeper: A player that is either very young and or expectations are relatively low – for the most part this “unheard of” doesn’t get drafted in the first 10 rounds of fantasy drafts and is, more often than not, undrafted.

That’s right, all those sleeper articles led by Marshawn Lynch, Darren McFadden, Calvin Johnson, Earnest Graham and Thomas Jones are just flat out ridiculous. Sure, they may be undervalued now, but they are by no means sleeper – they were either good last year, are great rookie players, or were good prior to last season. My wifey (that’s right) even knows who McFadden and Calvin are – that should be deal breaker number one seeing if a player makes “sleeper” lists. Josh Morgan? No clue who that is – sign him up! Here they are, enjoy. The numbers in parenthesis are projections for the season.

Rookie Sleepers

1. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (140 carries 800 rush yards, 45 catches 450 receiving, 8TDs): In a PPR league this kid is a lock to put up startable stats week in and week out. He’s the fastest guy on the field every single time he steps on the turf. When I say a guy is a sleeper it means he has the chance to be startable for at least half of the season and he usually gets picked after Round 10. Chris has the upside of a starting running back – that’s my kind of sleeper.

2. Steve Slaton, RB, Houston Texans (130 carries 600 rush yards, 30 catches 280 receiving, 4 TDs): For lack of a better option in Houston, Steve could end up getting about 15 touches a game. He’s already the scarriest and most dynamic rusher on the team, now he just has to get over the rookie jitters and the urge to bounce outside. Slaton was dominant two seasons ago in college, and believe me, he still has that ability. I’m not as high on him as I am on Chris, but Slaton’s small stature shouldn’t keep you from taking a chance on him. He has the makings of a good one cut runner.

3. Ryan Torain, RB, Denver Broncos (155 carries 750 yards, 7TDs): You know Selvin Young is going to fumble once or twice and Splinter is going to lose his marbles. That’s about when Ryan will be coming off of the injured list and stepping right into a nice little time share. Torain’s style reminds me of Ryan Grant and he could be a great option for a Denver attack that hasn’t had a tough runner in some time. He will likely miss the first 4-6 games but remember, Ryan Grant only started 10 games and what kind of impact did he have last season?

4. Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos (55 catches 850 yards 6 TDs): First of all, I love Jay Cutler’s game. Second of all, Royal is already a starter in Splinter’s master plan, and he’ll stay with the #1 unit even after Marshall gets back. Royal has a lot of explosive potential and it looks like he’s going to get his fair share of chances. He’s basically not getting picked right now, but with Cutler and Marshall and Scheffler and a running game to worry about, Royal might just find himself with room to run and that’s a good thing for Fantasy owners.

5. Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets (40 catches, 420 yards, 5 TDs): I’m basically relying on Brett to make a relationship with the young speedster out of Purdue. Honestly, Keller is much more of a receiver than a TE, but that’s great for Fantasy Football. Keller is a big match-up problem for most teams, and the fact that the Jets grabbed him early makes me think that they want him to get the ball. Coles and Cotchery will leave him all by himself with a safety to beat, and with his speed that’s very possible.

6. Josh Morgan, WR, San Francisco 49ers (70 catches, 840 yards, 4 TDs or look at Shaun McDonald’s numbers last season): I know they are just pre-season stats, but 4 catches for 68 yards, then 5 catches for 114 yards and a TD, he’s a possible super Mike Martz unknown 3rd receiver – c’mon, he has to be on sleeper lists, right? Not yet, but he is now. Take this guy in the last round, watch every other owner in your league look at you like you’re a moron, and then manage to start him and beat other teams with his production. Its a fun game I call “Told you so, Bitches!”. Play it with the people you are closest to, it’s a blast. Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald – did you think they’d be fantasy relevant? Exactly.

Non-Rookie Sleepers

1. Justin Gage, WR, Tennessee Titans (67 catches 900 yards, 5 TDs) : I don’t know if I fully believe it, but apparently Vince Young is more accurate than ever. If Justin can improve on his 750 yards and two touchdowns he might just be fantasy worthy. I think Young will be a little better throwing the ball, and right now Gage is the only sure-thing receiver in the starting line-up. That’s worth a very late pick right there.

2. Devin Hester, WR, CHicago Bears (60 catches, 900 yards, 11 TDs): Call me a Hester fan, hell, make me the president of his fan club, I don’t care, the guy is electric with the ball in his hands. He sees the game at a high speed, and he can take angles and make cuts that didn’t previously exist. Right now he’s the #1 receiver in Chicago, and while that’s not too much to be excited about, it does mean that he’ll be targeted quite a bit. If Hester gets 10 targets a game I bet he scores double digit touchdowns. He’s getting picked way too late right now. People are calling him a “bust” potentially but that’s some awkward joke, right? I mean, he doesn’t get picked until after the 10th round, even if he has a bad year it’s not like you blew an early pick on him.

3. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (3,300 yards, 22 TDs): The Packers may have been a little bit stubborn with Brett, but they didn’t get rid of the icon to give the reigns of this team to a guy without the ability to drive the sled. Rodgers has a great arm, a solid offensive line, and one of the best receiving corps in the entire league. Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones – these guys are studs that do quarterback’s favors. Defenses will be focussed in on Ryan Grant and that rushing attack, and Aaron will get the best of them early.

4. D.J. Hackett, WR, Carolina Panthers (65 catches, 800 yards, 6 TDs): I’ve always liked D.J. I’ve seen him play a lot and I always thought, when he was on the field, he was the best receiver in Seattle. If he stays healthy all season in Carolina he’ll bust those numbers I projected above. I think he’ll get those numbers in 12 healthy contests. He should start the year off with a bang too, he’ll be the #1 in Carolina, a receiving position that always justifies fantasy attention.

5. Steve Breaston, WR, Arizona Cardinals (45 catches, 600 yards, 4 TDs): So, there are many people that like Early Doucett to take Bryant Johnson’s old #3 gig, and a the others seem to like Jeremiah Urban – well I like Breaston. We’ll see how it works out, don’t draft him unless it’s a deep, deep league – but pay attention to this guy and see if he wins the gig. Boldin could be a wild card and Breaston might make it to #2???

6. Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans (3,500 yards, 20 TDs): This kid is a stud. He had some great performances in 2007, but had a season cut short by some injuries. I like his chances to carve up the AFC South. The Colts don’t really have much of a secondary and he’ll have to throw against the Titans and Jaguars. He still doesn’t have a stud running back to depend on, but Slaton will give him some nice yards on dump down passes, and if Chris Brown can stay relatively healthy he can be a good compliment. As a back-up, Schaub will have some nice starts for fantasy owners.