Fantasy Focus: Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings

Alright, it’s getting a little terrible. Josh has won 2 weeks in a row, and I received his fantasy rankings this week entitled, “The Three-peat Rankings” – Puke. Not only did I get dominated last week, I set an all time low for fantasy rankings on my own site, pulling home 4th in every single category. Heartache, pain, suffering – none of that, don’t worry – I’m just downright pissed off at my inability to see the entire board lately. But I’m destined to get back to my winning ways, so why not start this week? You’ve got to believe in your stuff, and confidence has never been an issue for me. Let the games begin! It’s about time someone else started winning Arse. If you three-peat, I’ll send you a present to the darkness!

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew– The Bills allow more yards and touchdowns to running backs than any other team in the NFL. Yep.
2. Chris Johnson – I do actually think the Texans D will play better this time around, but so what, CJ will still do work.
3. Adrian Peterson – Big Backs kill Hawks – it’s very similarly proven to E=MC2.
4. Peyton Manning – I can’t see a better QB option this week, the Ravens secondary should prepare for the worst.
5. Ray Rice– If the Ravens want to beat the Colts for the first time in 7 games, they better feed it to Ray.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Steve Smith (NYG) – The Giants SS is good to go this week, the Falcons secondary is porous.
2. Rashard Mendenhall – Mendenhall > Kansas City Chiefs.
3. DeSean Jackson – I’m loving DeSean against the Bears secondary. That kind of speed should torch them.
4. Ricky Williams –Ricky moves up from sleeper status because of Ronnie’s injury. I’d be starting him if I had him.
5. Sidney Rice –Tough to go against Rice right now, especially with Seattle in town.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett – I don’t care if the Hawks are headed up against Minnesota, this kid can find yards if he gets carries.
2. Beanie Wells – Last week I called his best week of the season, I’m going for 2 in a row.
3. Jeremy Maclin –The Bears will see a lot of passes this Sunday Night, Maclin, like Jackson, has that painful speed.
4. LeSean McCoy– McCoy has a good match-up against the Bears, a defensive front that isn’t as scary as they insist.
5. Fred Jackson– It’s a deep trick shot, for sure, but Fred should see his highest touch numbers since Lynch returned.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai– He burned me in the 4th quarter last week, but I think I’m right this time.
2. Derrick Mason– The Pats killed the Colts secondary, but I think the Ravens run too much this week.
3. Jay Cutler – He has the talent to bust out any week, but the Eagles will feast on his mistakes if he plays like Jay Cutler.
4. Roy Williams – The Cowboys won’t have time to mess with the whole #1 receiver game, the Skins have a tough secondary.
5. Matthew Stafford– Don’t start a bad player because of a supposed good match-up, plus the Browns D is better than you think.

***No more Bye weeks, but don’t get caught starting old man Clinton Portis or older man Brian Westbrook – both are definitely out this week, and there’s other’s too! Mind the Doctor!!!

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Week 11 Fantasy Rankings

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Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Football Advice Week 8

This is Papa Weimer, back again for some fantasy football question and answer action. I had a couple tough calls last week, even going so far as to advising a fantasy reader to sit Ricky Williams (80 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns) for Tashard Choice (0 carries, 1 catch for 23 yards) but man, guys, how am I supposed to predict something like Choice getting shut out on the ground and Ricky dicing up the Saints stellar run defense for the most touchdowns in one single game of his entire career??? Shoot, sometimes I miss, but I always take a shot. So, feel free to send your questions to papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I’ll be here to try and steer you away from carrots and ketchup, and get you closer to apples and cheese – yes, the latter is better than the former… Here’s this week’s early emails….

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Brad from the internet writes in, “I have a trade question. I currently have a trade offer, I have Steve Slaton and I have been offered Matt Forte for him. Slaton has been doing pretty good for because the Texans have been using him as a receiver but his rushing has not been so good. I’m a Bears fan so I need some advise!! LOL. I really want to make this trade cuz I believe Forte will turn around or am I just being a fan?? Thanks for your help!”

Brad, I hope I can steer you in the right direction. Here goes nothing. I’d stick with Slaton, at least for now. I love Forte’s game, he’s tough, he’s got great feet, and when you give him enough chances to succeed he usually does. The problem with the Bears is that they just aren’t a team ready to give a running back good fantasy numbers. Jay Cutler has a great arm, and his style over his short career has meant a couple things. His teams will score fast. That’s good for offensive numbers, but not really great for running backs. The faster the score, the fewer plays it takes, the fewer chances your RB gets to get break one. He also doesn’t check down. He’s been known for locking onto receivers and throwing it regardless of coverage. Look at it, he seeming choses a play for a player, like in Madden 2009, and just goes there not matter what you do. This is a problem for a couple reasons. Interceptions and incompletions also cause for a shorter offensive series. Also, when you don’t check down, your RB with great hands and receiving skills rarely gets catches. Now, unless this changes, I think Matt continues to struggle. This is why I was warning you Bear fans about getting so happy with the addition of Cutler. Great arm, not always the decisions you need to win football games. Then you add in the schedule over the next 5 weeks. Forte’s value might even go down from here. This week is a great match=up, sure, the Browns come to town to give Forte plenty of chances to up his fantasy stock, but what about after that? 4 Top-10 Rush defenses go up against the Bears, the Cardinals (1), the 49ers (6), the Eagles (11) and the Vikings (10) – and the Vikings are probably much better than any one of those. That’s a tough 4 game stretch where you’ll be looking for a playoff spot. You compare that to Slaton playing just 2 Top 10 defenses for the rest of the season (Titans-10, Dolphins-4) and I think you see why i’d stick with Steve. I think Forte will have some solid numbers late, but after this week it doesn’t look so bright. Good luck in either way you decide.

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William Bad-Ace from Beaver Falls, PA asks, “What is your best pick for survivor this week? I no longer have the Colts, not that they are a sure thing this week against San Fran anyway, I’m basically deciding between Chicago, San Diego, and Houston – any thoughts?”

Sure Billy, I got some advice for your Ace. I like the teams you listed, all could be a decent option. And yes, you’re right, Indy is far from a sure thing against a tough Niners squad. When’s the last time Indy played a physical football game anyway? Arizona in Week 3 or Miami in Week 2. That’s a long time ago. I’d steer clear from that game in survivor action. Of your choices, I’d rank San Diego #1, Chicago #2, and Houston #3. I think San Diego should slap Oakland around, but the Chargers are a little bit like the Eagles in that they rely heavily on the pass, and that can always come back to haunt you. Chicago plays Cleveland, but I’m not 100% here either, the Browns have a good offensive line and the Bears defensive front got blown out of the water by Cincinnati’s rushing attack last week, this could be more interesting than people expect. Houston should win, but Buffalo hangs around in a lot of football games, and that secondary can pick it with the best of them. If Houston runs, I like them to walk here, but they are no guarantee to keep it on the ground for too long. My favorite pick this week is actually one you didn’t even list. I like the Cardinals to absolutely slap the Panthers around like a JV team. Arizona beats up opposing rushing attacks and that’s all the Panthers can really do. I see a long game for Jake Delhomme, if he’s even the guy at QB in this game. The match-up favors Arizona so much that they are my biggest sure thing of Week 8. Hope that helps!

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Ryan from Seattle asks, “Who do you start this week, Ryan Grant against Minnesota, Knowshon Moreno against Baltimore, or Donald Brown against San Francisco? Yeah, tough spot, appreciate any help you got. Non-PPR….”

Ryan, you are in a pickle. But I think the answer is Ryan Grant. The Packers got away from the run last time out, but there is, at the very least, some evidence that says Grant could do solid things against that ferocious Vikings defensive front. The Steelers gave their starting running back just 10 carries last week, but he plowed away for 69 yards in limited chances. Ryan got just 10 carries against the Vikes last time out, he went for 50 on those looks. The Packers have decided to keep Grant more involved, and it’s been a good thing, dominating the last two games where Grant carried 20+ times (24 in Detroit, 27 last week), and if they know what’s good for them, they’ll commit to him again this week. I don’t know if I see a touchdown, but 80 yards or so could be in the cards if the Pack has removed their offensive play calling from the pass-happy garbage can. Hope that helps, good luck!

Sunday Observations: Week 6 NFL Football

My buddy Josh had this great idea, take some of our best comments to each other from Sunday’s action, the group’s best and worst textual masterpieces, and put them together in one article for all to see. Sometimes our day-time observations can be priceless, other times hilarious, and every once in a while even useful. You need to know, I have Sunday ticket, Josh is braving the darkness of Alaska and whichever games they show up there, Papa never leaves his dungeon, and Red Red Ryan couldn’t take part in this week’s texting session because his red hair (and female partner) wouldn’t allow him to do so. The bottom line is, we all watch football in different places, so we keep our texting handy to pretend we’re watching the games together. So, Red was out this week but still, Papa, Josh, and I sent texts to and fro. Here’s the Top 15, compiled by yours truly…

Josh Arsenault

1. Percy Harvin is a speed guy that loves to hit people… Watch him block from the slot and it’s easy to see why the Vikings love him.

2. Ray Rice’s game reminds me of MJD…. He and Flacco have a chance to be special for a long time.

3. John Fox makes coaching look hard… Here’s a tip, Foxy: D-Will, D-Will, J-Stew, D-Will, J-Stew, J-Stew, D-Will… Somebody get this guy a Tecmo Bowl playbook.

4. There is nobody in the NFL I enjoy watching lose more than Jay Cutler… Except maybe Al Davis… Here’s hoping Culter winds up with the Raiders at some point.

5. No team is more bi-polar than the Seattle Seahawks… Their two wins were shutouts (28-0 and 41-0) and their four losses have been by an average margin of 15 points. Which one will it be coming off their bye?

Lucky Lester

1. Rummaging through the games I think I’ve watched five offensive plays by the Bills, and I’m pretty damn sure Terrell Owens has three drops. If the average team has 60 offensive plays, TO is on pace to drop 36 balls based on my numbers – that has to be a record.

2. Joshua Cribbs is unreal, but unless he returns 5 kickoffs and punts for touchdowns, the Browns aren’t going to have a chance to win this game.

3. How do nine football games manage to all be on commercial at the same time, and not one has reached half time? On the bright side, the Tampa game is showing their cheerleaders, and I’m pretty sure they are only wearing jerseys – there might be black panties under there, but I’m not sure.

4. The Jaguars must really stink, because Maurice Jones Drew is really freaking good and they still suck.

5. I hate watching Jake Delhomme, he’s like a Ben Stiller movie, I feel embarrassed for the guy. He tries so hard but he just keeps zipping his junk up in his zipper. The guy can dig himself a hole with the best of them.

Papa Weimer

1. I hope Jim Zorn realizes that it’s not the quarterback, it’s him. Jason Campbell is better than Todd Collins, that’s why he’s started over the past 2 seasons. It’s the play calling, the dead end coaching spot, and the general broke down feeling of the Skins franchise.

2. I feel bad for Todd Haley, his offense plays like the last 3 eight grade teams I coached. They jump off-sides like it’s their job, they miss assignments all day long, and they do just enough to give you a glimmer of hope before they rip it away with a holding penalty and two jumps off-sides on back2back2back plays.

3. If you got paid a million dollars to get knocked out, and you got to pick one guy to make sure the job got done right, which player in the league would you choose to rock your world? I got Ray Lewis. (Josh replies, Brian Dawkins) (Lucky replies, Aaron Curry)

4. Hahahaha… The Rams are going to win, the Rams are going to win! Leonard Little, pick 6, the worst team in the league won’t tie the Lions for the worst record ever!

5. The Rams lose. Figures. If the Rams and Bucs gave all their best players to fight for a singular cause, they’d still get beat 12 times a year.

Week 1 Fantasy Football News: Ten for Tuesday

Here we are, breaking down Week 1’s action and how it’s going to effect you moving forward. Here are 10 things that caught my attention in this weekend’s entertaining action…

The Giants did alright throwing the ball sans Mr. Burress. But things aren’t quite how I thought they’d be coming out of Week 1. Dominik Hixon caught one pass while Hakeem Nicks looks to be out after injuring his foot early in the contest. There goes my #2 and #3 options going into Week 1, or so I figure. Who does that leave? Well, Steve Smith got plenty of targets, but he’s probably taken. Mario Manningham however, well, he looked explosive to me. He’s worth a shot going forward. Young, fast, athletic, no sure fire starters keeping him off the field, promising first round pick out a couple weeks? Yes please…..   Richard Seymour was a beast on Monday Night Football action in a Raiders uniform. Many think that was a dumb trade by the Raiders, sending out a first round pick for Seymour, but this guy is a difference maker. He’s going to give the Raiders huge plays, make their run defense better, and keep their secondary from having to cover receivers any longer than 5 seconds. He takes pressure off of everyone. Now that might not mean much to you, because the Raiders aren’t getting many defensive starts this season, however, with Jerrod Mayo going down for the Patriot, and Seymour getting traded, I think the Patriots are becoming more and more vulnerable defensively. They got a first round pick in 2011, but what about winning a championship this season? What about the Patriots as a fantasy DST? I’m looking for better options…..   Two of the biggest off-season movers, Terrell Owens and Jay Cutler, both had pretty forgettable opening day’s for their new squads. TO dropped a pass (weird) and had his team fall in last minute fashion to the Patriots while Jay Cutler did Jay Cutler things, managing 4 interceptions to his single touchdown pass – a nice one to Devin Hester. I would buy low if you have the chance, but if you own these guys, hold tight, both have better days to come. Trent Edwards looked solid, and there’s a good chance Jay’s receivers will get on his page soon enough….   After Week 1, Adrian Peterson leads all running backs in fantasy land – that isn’t crazy, what is crazy is that Tim Hightower, Thomas Jones, Julius Jones, Fred Jackson, and Willis McGahee finish off the Top 6. Of those four, I’m not sure if Fred Jackson, or McGahee have a chance to keep it up, considering their future situations sharing time in the backfield, but both could be decent spot starters – Fred because he’s only done good things when given the chance, and McGahee because he’s seemingly getting goal line action. And my spidey senses tell me that Tim Hightower won’t be racking up double digit catches game in and game out, but I’ve said for a while, he’s a steal and he’ll be a solid contributor. Thomas and Julius, the brothers’ Jones, have a chance to keep racking up big time fantasy points. Every week Julius will get more comfortable with Seattle’s new blocking scheme, and Thomas will get his chances behind that very solid Jets offensive line….    Jake Delhomme pulled off the amazing this Sunday against Philadelphia, he managed to get double digit fantasy points… In the negative. Yes, Jake turned the ball over enough times to get him in -11 in one of my leagues. Now, most leagues he probably got closer to -8, but still, brutal. Jake took a seat in the second half, and Steve Smith owners can only hope that Jake’s last two performances (accounting for 9 interceptions and just 1 TD) are back to back outliers. I’m thinking they are, and these two should get back to decent totals next week against the Falcons. But maybe that’s because I’m a Smith owner…..  Drew Brees has one of the quickest releases in football. His accuracy is amazing, and his eye for the game, the way he plays defenses like puppets, is almost poetic. But dirty and tough and footbally. For a guy that has absolutely no physical advantage, the whole thing truly is amazing. The way Drew can escape pressure for a second, turn his body, reset his feet, and release the ball with pin-point accuracy is amazing. Never known as a speedy guy, I’m not sure there’s another guy that is quicker resetting and throwing than Brees. Those that reached out and grabbed Drew early, I’m sure you’re happy with your Week 1 win…..  Laurence Maroney tallied more carries than any other Patriot RB despite being 4th on the depth chart. He didn’t kill it though, averaging just over 3 yards per carry on 10 attempts. Fred Taylor had 9 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Kevin Faulk carried the ball once or twice. Sammy Morris didn’t get an attempt. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Maroney is the upside play, and worth a roster spot most likely, but I’m not sure having any Pat running back is a dreamy situation…..   Donovan McNabb broke a rib on Sunday when a defensive player kneed him in the back about 2 seconds after he got into the end-zone. Personally, I think he’ll play, but we’ll see. I still think the Eagles will be productive in his absence, but Jeff Garcia’s signing makes me think that those of you holding on to Mike Vick really need to find a new person to fill that roster spot. I’m not a Vick hater, quite the contrary, I think the guy deserves a second chance and definitely hope he gets his career back on track. However, if the Eagles have Kevin Kolb, and in a week will get Vick back, why would they go get Garcia? I know, because they don’t think Vick will be able to run this team from the QB position, even if McNabb goes down for a considerable period of time. Let Vick go non-dynasty-leaguers, let him go…..   Byron Leftwich, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez really impressed me this week, but only one of those guys really surprised me. Flacco is quite good, a much better thrower than many people think, and I think he puts up solid numbers this season, but I thought that all along. Sanchez has very mature feet, especially for a young kid with 1 year of college starting experience, and he’ll keep the Jets in winning situations, but I thought that all along. Byron Leftwich is tough as hell, stares into the face of defenses, and will step up to complete a ball in the face of the rush, and while I knew that, I didn’t think he’d throw the ball as well as he did against the Cowboys. He’s always been a winner, but I think Byron can be a fantasy contributor this season. Why? Well, that offensive line is very good, the running backs are equally as talented, and very deep – and a group of pass catchers that include Antonio Bryant, Kellen Winslow, Michael Clayton, and Sammie Stroughter is good enough when teams have to pay so much attention to the run. Byron is rosterable….    Ten of the Top 16 pre-ranked fantasy receivers (ESPN) managed single digit fantasy points, that means guys like Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Eddie Royal, Steve Smith, Roddy White, Terrell Owens and more didn’t help fantasy owners in Week 1. This is why picking receivers high isn’t the best move in fantasy land. Receivers are a fickle and inconsistent bunch. I still like these guys, but on any given week the best receivers will get you next to nothing – where even mediocre running backs will keep you in the game. Until next week!

Wing Man!: Not Every Superhero needs a Sidekick

History supports what I’m saying here, not always can the dynamic of two super personalities, amazing talents, wonderfully crafted names and/or awkwardly revealing spandex outfits, fit together like Steve Young and Jerry Rice, Marcus Allen and Bo Jackson, or even a more well-known duo, Batman and Robin (and even the last two heroes might find it tougher together nowadays)… In fact, if you look at the big picture, it becomes more and more evident that not every Super-Hero needs a Sidekick. In fact, most of the big name stars produce more box office fantasy potential all by themselves in their own little uniforms (As you can easily recognize that even Batman does his best movies sans his puffy feathered bird of a sidekick).

There are a few guys I’m looking at this year where a certain sidekick is digging into the main man’s cover-value, and even a couple more stars that are getting matched up with other stars – two superheroes do not always make a friendly team: Wolverine, Punisher, Spiderman, Captain America.  You have to remember, when a team gets better, a fantasy player doesn’t always improve.

Scrappy Doo basically crushed a very good cartoon of young crime fighters. Scooby was doing a fine job begging for Scooby Snacks, being a scaredy dog, and being his pot-head friend’s best bud. All Scrappy did was come in and steal some of the spotlight, and since everyone loves a puppy, soon he was getting too much attention. Suddenly, the drop off happened and Scooby and his friends have never quite recovered.

And what about Jimmy Olsen, Superman’s pal, one of the only guys to know Supe’s identity – well, all he did was get his buddy into trouble at every turn. Did Superman ever need Jimmy? I think not.

Wolverine vs. Punisher? Spiderman fighting Captain America? It’s amazing that a couple guys looking for the same thing (in both instances) could get into such a fiasco with each other – but it happens.

These things happen in the “fantasy world” and they also happen in fantasy football. This season there are some sidekicks ready to help the team all the while stomping out some fantasy fire of their own teammates. And while most of these guys play for wins and losses instead of statistical superiority – the truth of the matter is… You and I don’t. Not in fantasy football anyway. So which gridiron heroes will have their value cut down to size by the Scrappy Doo’s, Jimmy Olsen’s, Wondergirl’s and Aqualad’s of the National Football League? Follow along closely…

Matt Cassel and Tyler Thigpen

This seems like the easiest one around. Matt Cassel found a new home with a new offensive genius taking over in Kansas City. But what about Thigpen? What about the guy that dominated down the stretch? What about Tyler Thigpen? If you look back at last season’s stats, you will see two new teammates ranked 2nd and 3rd amongst quarterbacks during last season’s second half. That’s right, you guessed it, Tyler Thigpen is number 2 and Matt Cassell was number 3. That Top 5 list looks like this… Drew Brees, Thigpen, Cassel, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. So, while many people probably don’t even know who Tyler Thigpen is, as he was really only a super hero fantasy star to those that picked him up for a late run into the post season (yes, that was me in more than a couple instances), he was still a star. Thigpen was 3 points shy of Drew Brees during those 10 weeks, and Brees had a brilliant season. But Cassel has the job, and surely Thigpen will suffer most in this match up of free agent pick ups turned fantasy playoff super heroes of 2008 turned teammates of 2009. This season will mark the first time in history that this situation will ever have taken place. Two young quarterbacks with huge statistical seasons meet up on the same team the very next year. But it is what it is, and Matt Cassel will be crushing the fantasy relevance of his teammate, and higher rated fantasy performer of last year’s second half. The team has gotten better, but Thigpen has lost his way.

Jay Culter and Matt Forte

Both players became fantasy stars in 2008. Matt Forte did so in his rookie season for a Bears team that used him as their main weapon, finishing a win away from the playoffs. Forte was as consistent as fantasy stars get, putting up solid numbers week after week as the Bears gave him the ball early and often. Jay Cutler was Mike Shanahan’s little buddy, a coach in uniform, the son he always wanted. Jay got the green light to throw any ball he wanted any time, and while that made Cutler one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in football, it also ended Splinter’s long run as the head coach in Denver. That led to Josh McDaniels getting the reigns for the Broncos, which led to Cutler having a fit when McD wanted his former QB, which led to bagels being just another way to get cream cheese to your face, which led to Jay Cutler getting traded for 2 first round picks, a couple more picks, and a 6 pack of Chicago’s best brew. That dysfunctional set of circumstantial dominoes led to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, two rising fantasy stars, to meet up in Chicago’s backfield. Well goodness me. But whose value is effected more? Well, I would imagine that both players have a slight hit in value, but both could see their efficiency ratings moving on up. Crazy how fantasy and actual football can be so different. Matt Forte is likely to see less 8 man fronts (if any), while Cutler is likely to see more open secondaries with defenses actually paying attention to the run game in his offense. But, Forte will get less carries, less catches, and likely less touchdowns in 2009. Jay Cutler will almost surely have less yardage, fewer touchdown passes, while continuing to throw interceptions this season with the Bears. But Forte will get more yards per carry while Cutler’s QB rating will likely rise. They may make a nice duo, two young guys with their entire comic book careers in front of them, but this year both will suffer in the fantsy realm, losing the numbers from their days as single stars.

Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White

After years of lacking a #1 receiver, the Falcons finally came through with the coming of age of Roddy White. And after years of stumbling around losing seasons without another true offensive threat, Tony Gonzalez was traded to a city of bright fantasy youngsters making a name for themselves in the NFC South. But who will be the star in this receiving situation? The young up and comer or the old school TE that can stake his claim as one of the best ever? Only I have the answer you’re looking for. Both should fail to match last year’s top notch numbers. Say what you want about Dwayne Bowe’s rise to stardom or Matt Ryan being better than the Chiefs’ no-name quarterback last season, but neither piece of information will convince me that Tony G is in a better fantasy situation than he was last season. Last year, Bowe was still just the 2nd fiddle in KC’s passing game, with the attention of opposing defenses collapsing around Tony. And he may be relatively unknown, but I already showed you that Tyler Thigpen was no joke going down the stretch, so stop belittling the guy. Plus, KC threw the ball a lot last year, which is how Tony got so much fantasy love. Likewise, Roddy White was the only real threat in the passing game last season, but the Falcons ran so dang much that defenses had to bite on the play action. Matt Ryan locked onto his number one guy, and reasonably so, White was a yardage gaining machine for the Falcons. Now both top flight receivers will see differences in 2009. Tony Gonzalez will find himself in an offense that runs the ball as much as they throw which should cut down on his chances to get anywhere close to last season’s targets. Not only that but Roddy White is one of the best young receivers in the league, one that 2nd year QB Matt Ryan made a living throwing to in 2008 – so a repeat of last year’s totals should be close to impossible. And for Roddy, you know the Falcons are still going to run a ton, and a great tight end is a quarterback’s best friend, and his notoriety as a receiving threat should have defenses paying more attention to him this season – so his targets will likely fall as well. The Falcons offense should be great, even better than last season’s surprising numbers, but these two super-heroes won’t win as often in fantasy circles.

Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene

This is definitely a case similar to Scrappy Doo’s fuse lighting to the dynamite under Scooby’s career. Thomas Jones had his best season as a pro. If anyone gained value from Brett’s arm last season it was Jones. Thomas finished 5th amongst running backs in non-ppr leagues, making him one of the best fantasy values of 2008. But in comes the younger cuter puppy hero drafted by the Jets. (Actually, Shonn Greene is a beast of a kid and as far as looks go Thomas may have the girls gushing after his bulging biceps, but you get the picture). Still, already Shonn is getting rave reviews in Jets camp, and with a new coach in town there’s no real loyalty to last season’s production. If Coach Ryan learned anything from his time in Baltimore it was that the best player plays no matter if he’s getting paid like Willis McGahee or Le’Ron McClain. That might be just the ignition Greene needs to up-end the 31 year old Thomas Jones’ career. This could definitely be a case of the sidekick back-up unproven option stealing too much of the star’s light, and slowly eating into that profile he worked so hard to build. Drop Thomas in your rankings, yes, but don’t completely ignore the guy. I’ve seen him falling way too far in Fantasy Drafts, and there’s a good chance he’s still a productive piece of the Jets rushing attack.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White

Last season it was Chris Johnson eating into White’s numbers, but this season the roles may be reversed. I’ve noticed Chris Johnson getting lots of fantasy love on draft days. But LenDale is now a much slimmer and still powerful version of himself. Everyone expected Chris Johnson to continue his growing percentage of carries from last season. After starting pretty equal, he was definitely the horse the Titans tried to ride down the stretch. But this season could be a lot more even than people are ready to believe. LenDale has always had a knack for the end-zone with very athletic feet for a big powerful back. Coming into camp in the best shape of his life, running faster than ever, and apparently buying into everything more than ever before makes him a sneaky thief to Johnson’s carries. When you add the often forgotten fact that LenDale is smack dab in the midst of a contract season, he has even more to play for, a future contract and a starting gig (if the Titans don’t want to pay the man his money). So before you draft Chris Johnson with all his speed and excitement and all that man-love you have for him – remember, there’s a big bad touchdown thieving guy from USC that not only has something to prove, but money to earn in 2009. Chris should still be a nice player in 2009, he’s a great young back, but expecting even more impressive numbers in 2009 might disappoint you this season.

theRUNDOWN: Week 7

For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. This is my Week 7 group… 

QB: Jay Cutler vs. New England: The Broncos are used to beating the Patriots and Cutler has a nice arm. Eddie Royal will be back this week and I think Cutler takes advantage of the Pats weak secondary. It was a toss up between him, Manning and Aaron Rodgers, but I’m leaning on Jay this week. 

RB: Clinton Portis vs. Cleveland: The Browns were better last week, but Portis torches everyone these days, he doesn’t discriminate. I like him to have a nice day in a close Redskins win. 

RB: Marion Barber vs. Rams: Romo’s injury means a lot more carries for Barber. Marion will torch the Rams defense and I see a multiple touchdown day for him this week. 

FLEX: Greg Jennings vs. Colts: He’s one of my favorite receivers in the league to watch, and I think he’ll do some work against the Colts. He’s very physical and all Rodgers needs to do is put the ball somewhere he can get to it. 

WR: Brandon Marshall vs. New England: If the Patriots can’t stop Vincent Jackson they can’t stop Brandon Marshall (no offense to Jackson, I think he is a very good player). Marshall is my top receiver this week. 

WR: Andre Johnson vs. Detroit: Did you see Johnson big brothering the Dolphins last week? It was awesome. Need a lot of yards Schaub? Just throw it in the direction for Johnson he’ll beast anyone around and steal the ball away from them, pop it, and go home with their lunch money. I like a guy like that, especially against the lion cubs. 

TE: Jason Witten vs. St. Louis: Good secondary match-up and the TE is the easiest guy to get the ball to for a 2nd string quarterback. Either way, Romo or Johnson, I like Witten to get the rock 5-8 times on Sunday. 

K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. Denver: Versus Denver is my new kicker treat because I can’t seem to have any success at this position. I’ll just take versus Denver and do my darnedest. 

D: Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Seattle: The Bucs defense is a stout unit, no doubt about that. The Hawks are brutal and they throw a lot. There you have it, turnovers and a low score – that equals yhatzee. 

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Matt Cassel: Against the Broncos, you bet – the Patriots will have to get their points somewhere and I’m willing to bet that Cassel plays better this week. 

Jason Campbell: I think Jason throws two touchdowns this week against the Browns, but this game will have more than a couple scores going on. Good game to play Campbell. 

Earnest Graham: Still not getting enough touches to be a sure thing, I’m willing to bet that Graham sees 10-15 against the Hawks and that will be good for 60-90 yards and probably a score.

Darren McFadden: I like McFadden against the Jets. He’s a superb gamebreaker type back and he hasn’t really busted one for a while. I think he puts up about 80 yards and a score against New York this Sunday – but the Raiders lose big again. 

Vincent Jackson: Play him while he’s hot. All he needs is targets. He’s usually bigger and faster than anyone guarding him, and Rivers has been playing well enough to make sure Vincent gets the ball. I like him over some stars against this week. 

Lance Moore: I still like Moore for one more week. 

Devin Hester: Hester didn’t get into the zone last week, but he caught enough balls (6?) and went for 90+ yards so I think he’s a great option against the Vikings. Hester is very fast and the Vikings shut down the run and are open ended in the secondary. That should mean a nice day for Devin. 

Greg Olsen: Same with Hester I think Olsen is a nice mismatch for a mediocre Vikings secondary. 

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys need to step up somewhere, and I think their elite talent on defense gets them attacking Bulger and causing turnovers. 

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Gus Frerotte: I don’t like Gus this week. He’ll turn the ball over and the Bears, in my mind, are winning this week easily.  

Willis McGahee: McGahee won’t do much – weird. Apparently Willis is off the injury report – but don’t let that excite you too much, the Ravens aren’t going to be smashing the Dolphins around this week. 

Adrian Peterson: You won’t sit him, and that’s fine, but he couldn’t really do much against the Lions or the Saints – now the Bears??? Maybe he just does what he does and goes off for 200 yards, that’s why you can’t sit him, but I predict another bad week for AP. 

Chad Johnson: So far Chad has just been the normal Chad without any big weeks. He usually goes off a couple times a season and gets some solid numbers on his side. That won’t happen this week with Fitzy throwing him the ball. 

Five for Friday: Week 3

Here goes nothing…

  1. That whole thing about Calvin Johnson being a great receiver – yeah, it’s true. This kid is going to dominate yardage totals this season in the NFL. Brandon Marshall and his destructive ways are getting a lot of hype right now, and reasonably so, he caught about 20 balls in his first week of action. But this week Calvin Johnson goes up against the rickety 49ers defense and he’s going off. Nobody in the league can guard this beast of a receiver that has elite speed. Top 3 this year – and all of those guys that did risk it a little and reach for him – nice work.
  2. Steve Smith to pull a Brandon Marshall? It seems to perfect for Smith, right? Steve goes off against the Vikings in his past, and now, after punching his teammate in the face with a blind side shot, he comes back from a two game suspension and who does he see? Purple people eaters everywhere. I’ve been dying to get Smith in my lineup, and I have to believe that he’ll have a little something special for us in Week 3. Its not like they are running against the Vikes – that’s for sure.
  3. If you have a Bronco – start him. Okay, if you own Darrell Jackson, don’t start him, but the rest of these guys are fair game. That means Cutler, Royal, Young, Marshall, Scheffler, and maybe even Andre Hall. The Saints are a bad defense when healthy, and right now they look like the Seahawks receiving corps. Pretty soon they’ll be hiring ex-players that they kicked off their team years ago – aghem, Koren Robinson drop.
  4. Is it fair to say that I was wrong about Larry Johnson? I’m kind of interested as to why he isn’t getting touches for the pathetic Chiefs offense. I understand he had 10 carries for 22 yards last week, but really, who is a better option? And why would you take one of the best bruisers the league has and remove him from goal line packages? I’m beginning to think either LJ has lost his game (ala John Daily after the turn) or Herman Edwards and the Chiefs front office are just plain crazy. It’s hard not to start him if you got him, I mean he’s not really going up a defensive front that will scare you. Take one last chance on him, that’s my best advice.
  5. I’ve already used the Giants and Patriots (in reverse order) for my survival pool, and that’s why I’m going with the Bills this week. I know, they are the Bills, but this team has a little something. I’m trying to jinx myself here I guess, but I’ve never lost a survivor pool in my life. Mind that I’ve only played two seasons of no hit ball, but I am two for two. The Bills have a great match-up against a pretty soft Raiders group. That bodes well for them, especially in Buffalo. Both the Pats and Giants are solid options as well. What was my best survivor pick of all time you ask? (Or I want to tell you, either way) The Rams over the Saints last season. If you go back, you’ll see that the Rams were winless and playing a Saints team that had won a few in a row. The Rams win. I win. And even better, the two teams I beat picked the Saints. Nothing is better than winning a survivor pool taking a big underdog against the huge favorite your buddy just took.

Ten for Tuesday: Week 3

1. Eddie Royal is still for real. In the one league I didn’t draft Royal in, I just traded for him. Ha. After what Brandon Marshall did to the Chargers I have a feeling more coverage is headed his way. The fact that Royal got the game tying touchdown and the game winning two point conversion thrown his way is just an example of Splinter’s trust in his young ninja turtle – grab him if you can.

2. Darren McFadden is a stud – weird. For those of you that thought D-Mac was going to fall on his face and struggle in his first year running the ball in the NFL game – you are silly rabbits. Anyone can see that this kid has all the running ability and vision in the world. He’s a beast – let that be known.

3. Jonathan Stewart is going to be the man. Yes, DeAngelo Williams will get his carries, but I’m willing to bet that J-Stew finishes the years with more carries, more touchdowns, a better ypc average, and more catches out of the back-field. Both will be an option, which is why either one is a tough start, but if you have both and have to choose one, I’m going with the rookie.

4. Jay Cutler is a top 5 fantasy quarterback – and maybe even more efficient on the football field. Right now, mine go like this for the rest of the season – Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Donavan McNabb, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner – yes, I may be going out on a bit of a limb here, but I like three ahead of Peyton and one just behind, and Warner might push Manning for his spot.

5. Randy Moss: Now is as good a time as ever to grab the tall receiver. He didn’t do dick last week, and people were already questioning his chances with Super Tom off the field for the season. Let me tell you this – Randy is still a top 5 receiver, and anybody that thinks otherwise doesn’t deserve to have him on their team. So go for the jugular and snipe him away for something way under value – like Santana Moss (if you can). I love me some Randy touchdowns.

6. Marion Barber is a beast. I wouldn’t be stunned if Barber puts up 20 touchdowns this year, hell, I expect that much. Barber is a beast and that Cowboy offense is sadistically good. Barber is a touchdown machine and nobody runs tougher. If you didn’t listen to my predictions and grab Barber early, you are probably too late, but if someone offers him to you, take it and run with it.

7. Unless it’s LT. That’s right, don’t trade LT. He’s still going to go off, probably as early as the Jets. New York has played decent against the run in their first two games, but that won’t last. If LT plays, and I expect he will, I’m predicting 150 yards and a couple touchdowns. After two down weeks in a row, and sounds of a toe injury, it might be a good time to try and plunder superman from his unsuspecting owner. Make it happen.

8. 150, 140, 3 scores: Kurt Warner knows who to throw the ball to apparently. Larry Fitz collected the most yardage from his 6 grabs, while Boldin finished just behind him with 140 yards – but those three scores helped fantasy owners win all over this week. Both receiving options are studs, and both will have brilliant seasons if they stay healthy. If you were smart enough to draft Boldin despite all the “trade me” talk and pre-season hysteria, then you are looking brilliant now. Doesn’t it feel good?

9. J.T. O’Sullivan to the rescue: And after week 1 everyone dropped this guy figuring “no way is he going to put up Mike Martz numbers,” c’mon guys – that’s why you never practice premature edropulation. O’Sullivan will be putting the ball up a lot this year, and many of his passes will be to a running back in Frank Gore that has all the ability to make a lot out of a little. Feel free to pick him up if he’s available. Against sloppy secondaries, which there are a lot of in the NFC, J.T. will be a solid option all year long – same for Bryant Johnson for that matter. After an injury plagued pre-season, Johnson looks like a big fast Martz #1 – can’t hate on that.

10: Maybe the Patriots aren’t that bad after-all. Check out last week’s stuff – this team is still legit, and Matt Cassell will only get better as the season goes on. Remember, this last week was his first start since high-school… Take that Matt Leinart!!!