Ask Papa Weimer: Week 12 Fantasy Football Advice

I’ve answered a lot of fantasy questions this week (ask me anything football any time at papaweimer50@hotmail.com), and thanks to everyone who reads my stuff and sends in the questions – but I only have a couple to share this time around, it is one of my favorite holidays you know, a great 4 day feast at my house where I’m never hungry one single second after about 11am on Thursday Morning. Many eating a little drinking and much football gets observed, just enough time without gravy on my fingers to post a couple questions and answers. Here it is –

no banners

Stan the Man writes, “HELP!!!! SOS…. Man, I don’t know what else I can do to breakout of my slump! My team is free-falling and I play the #1 team this week who has already received production from Rogers and Jacobs. I’m down 30 already, who should I pick at WR between (Hester, Massaquoi, and Gibson) and need 2 between (Forte, Thomas Jones, Roc, or Forsett). I have the Bengals, you like their chances? Thanks!”

First of all, if you’re down already, I’d go with Hester at WR, he’s the biggest chance you have at a huge game between the three guys that are left.

As for running back, Thomas Jones is your biggest sure thing, after that it’s a bit of a crap shoot. YOu could go with Forte, but the Bears rushing attack has sucked, and they play an one of the best run-d’s in the league – but last week the Seahawks saw their starting RB get 8 catches for 80 yards – so there’s some Forte upside in the passing game, though Forsett is probably a different type of receiver than Forte….

I think Forsett would be a great start against the Rams, if Jim Mora wasn’t a tool box, and/if Julius Jones wasn’t pronounced healthy and starting – even so, I think Forsett could have a good day, I just don’t know if he’s worth the risk. I’d say no.

I think I would go with Cartwright – he’s a solid runner, he’s always been a good receiver, and he’s the only thing the Redskins have in those short passing situations. Last week, against a good Dallas run-D, Cartwright caught 7 balls (most on the team) for 70 yards (most on the team) and had 63 rushing yards (most on the team) – or something like that – not sure exact numbers, but something similar to those. I think he could be a solid pick against an Eagles team that has been decent against the run. It’s between him and Forte for me, both could catch lots of balls, I think Cartwright has a better chance to get more rushing yardage, and more catches too – but Forte probably has the better chance to score a touchdown. Tough call, I think I’d go with Roc.

Other than that, it looks good. Hopefully you can make up some ground with your RBs and with Vernon Davis, and the Bengals look like a great start this week.

no banners

Dougie Fresca asks, “Would you start Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, Randy Moss or Wes Welker, John Carlson or Greg Olsen – thanks, sorry for the tough choices, my team is pretty solid and I already started some guys that didn’t do that well (Greg Jennings and Calvin Johnson).”

Yeah, Dougie, on the bright side it looks like you’re in a good place. I would start Brady over Peyton – the Texans have a solid secondary and I think they make the Colts run it to beat them, plus, I like a Texans upset bid to possibly work it’s magic, and that would mean a better day from Tom – and Tom has been amazing this year (especially lately) – amazingly, he seems to be going under the radar a bit, even though he’s Tom freaking Brady.

I would start Randy Moss over Welker for sure if it was a non PPR, and in a basic coin toss for a PPR league, I think the 51% chance of Moss having the better day wins out, he’s more of a big play touch down guy, and I think that’s enough to make him the guy. Though I would have gone Wes over Greg or Calvin, but that’s obviously an easy call to make now. We’ll see how it works out.

I would go with Greg Olsen over John Carslon. The Vikings give up plenty of points to opposing tight ends, and Lucky thinks the Bears have a chance to get right up there all close like with the Vikings this week – Olsen will play a huge role if that comes true. Good luck for the rest of the week!

Ask Papa Weimer Part II: Week 9 2009 Fantasy Advice

no banners

Here’s more stuff from the last couple days, hope these questions and answers give you that last little point you need to win your match-ups this week!

Stan from San Fran writes, “Papa, I think I want to start Forte and Westbrook at RB this weekend, Devin Hester, Greg Jennings, and Mr. Marshall at WR, but I have some other options, would you go with those guys or trade them for someone on my bench: Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Hakeem Nicks, Kevin Walter, or Pierre Garcon – I have to start 2 RBs and 3 WRs – thanks! I think Walter is intriguing this week, what do you think?”

I think Forte could find it really tough sledding against the Cardinals this week, but Mendenhall also goes up against a very tough run defense, and Felix Jones is still just a 6-10 carry guy, so yeah, Forte and Westbrook look like your best options – tough match-ups though.

I like your receiver options, definitely with you – but check and make sure that Hester is actually playing this sunday before you make that pick – he hasn’t practiced this week and I want to say he’s looking more questionable than originally thought – if he’s out, I’d roll with Nicks and the other two guys.

As for Walter, that’s something to think about, definitely, and maybe not as much his good match-up but the fact that Owen Daniels and his 10 or so targets are game isn’t there for the rest of the year. BUt the Colts defense isn’t just the starters, it’s a scheme and an idea, and they’ve had lots of players go through there and succeed in that scheme. Still, you’re right, Walter is intriguing for sure.

And Receivers are tough, but I probably wouldn’t play him this week against the Colts. You have Marshall who has a good match-up, nicks who has a good match-up, Hester who has a good match-up, and Jennings who is a stud against a pretty bad Bucs defense. Walter is going against a Colts team minus 3 starters, sure, but without two of those guys for the first few weeks, they were still a great pass defense. I’d stick with your originals – but you’re right, Walter has some upside.

Jason 85 writes his first novel, “Papa, So this is my first time coming to you for advice, but I went 0-3 last week and looking for other advice than my regulars because I NEED TO BOUNCE BACK!! I apologize if this is overwhelming and I’m gonna warn you, I may send you some more emails…

First, I need 2 running backs: Brandon Jacobs vs SD, Ronnie Brown vs NE, Barber vs PHI, Hightower vs CHI — I like: Jacobs and Hightower

B. I need 2 RB/2 WR/1 FLEX: Crabtree/Boldin/Manningham/Malcom Floyd/Kevin Walter ——  Sproles/Tomlinson/Maroney — I like: Crabtree/Tomlinson/Maroney, thinking of Floyd/Walter/or Sproles for the rest, I dont think boldin nor manningham will perform as needed this week.

C. I need 2 running backs: Chris Johnson vs. SF, Bradshaw vs SD, Westbrook vs DAL, McCoy vs DAL, Stewart vs. NO — I like: Johnson and Bradshaw

Hope I’m not overdoing it lol. I really need that bounce back. THANKS A MIL!”

Jason, haha, by all means, send more questions if you got ’em. Hopefully I can get you some advice that helps you get some wins this weekend.

A- I would start Brandon Jacobs and Ronnie Brown. Brown hasn’t had a big game in the last couple weeks, and I think he’s a great running back. The Dolphins should rely on him in that game. If you’re strongly against Brown, I think it’s tough to go with Hightower over Barber- Marion hasn’t rushed for over 3.6 yards per carry in his last 4 games, has been all but removed from the passing game where he’s normally a good receiver, and I’m just not sure what you’ll get from him – but at least he’s a touchdown threat and the Eagles don’t have a great run-defense. At least Hightower will be involved in the passing game, but Beanie Wells is teh better answer, and honestly I don’t see the Cardinals carrying the ball more than 20 times. Maybe Tim gets 6-10 carries. That’s not enough for me to start him.

B- I would go with Crabtree/Manningham Tomlinson/Maroney and it’s almost a coin toss, but Sproles big play ability gets the nod as the flex. I would go with Mannignham because I’m pretty sure he’s healthy, he claimed he could have played last week, and the Chargers don’t do a good job stopping the pass, I think the Giants throw the ball well this week. Sproles nor Tomlinson have a good match-up, but I still think they are your better options. The Giants aren’t likely to give up a ton of yardage to Malcom Floyd, but I can see going with him if Manningham’s status changes to doubtful or if you find out he’s not playing.

C- I like Johnson and Bradshaw as well. You can’t sit Johnson, he’s too good, and Bradshaw has a great match-up and is probably going to be used a lot against a Chargers team that should struggle to stop the speedy option in New York. Good luck this weekend, my man, hopefully you can gets a few wins!

Brian Henderson asks, “Is it to early to give up on Slaton?? I have been offered Rashard Mendenhall for Slaton. Should I do this? Thanks in advance for your time.”

Okay, so looking into this situation has been interesting. Here’s what I got on each guy.

Steve Slaton – Obviously one of the more explosive backs in the league, his burst is such that he scores touchdowns – most of his fantasy points have come from touchdowns and in the passing game – sound likes Reggie Bush – but Slaton is the better actual running back, and probably not as fast as Reggie – but both will continue to score touchdowns when given chances. That being said, Slaton hasn’t rushed for 100 yards yet this year (his highest three games are 76, 67, and 65 yards and the next best game is a 43 yard rushing day). But he also has 29 catches on 39 targets, 300+ yards receiving, and 3 receiving touchdowns). With Owen Daniels gone, it’s hard to think that Houston would just get rid of a huge chunk of their big plays and receiving prowess because he fumbled a few times to start the season, but Gary Kubiak did coach under Mike Shanahan – (you know that guy as the former running back killer, can use anyone and will extraordinaire) so you never know. Still, Daniels was a 10 target a game guy – those have to go somewhere, right? And I’m not so sure Ryan Moats is the 120+ yard 3 touchdown running back he was last week – they were playing the Bills, and the Texans did run the ball more than they had all season – I have a feeling Slaton would have gone for 150+ in that situation – but there’s obviously questions there. But Slaton has a pretty favorable rushing schedule going forward, not the best run D’s on the Texans’ schedule.

Rashard Mendenhall – On the upside, he is explosive, fast, powerful, has blocked very well and while he hasn’t been used often, he’s proven that he has very good hands (8 catches in 9 targets). He proven to be by far the more effective running back in PIttsburgh, and his upside is great. He’s also scored 4 touchdowns in the last 4 games. But look at his schedule, Broncos, Ravens twice, Bengals, Packers – and in Week 17 (if your league goes that far) he plays Miami – that’s 6 games against Top 10 run defenses (the Packers and Ravens during the playoffs – however, I’m not completely sold on Green Bay being some great run defense, they are very up and down). The Steelers haven’t run the ball very much, but you’d think they’d commit more to the run when the weather starts to rear it’s rainy, cold, head. I think Mendenhall could get 100+ yards with the benefit of 20 carries against any team in the league, but trading for him obviously means you are expecting the Steelers to run more, because besides his 1 big start against San Diego (165 yards) he’s really averaged just around 70 yards per game, but not for lack of yards per carry, he just hasn’t gotten the touches.

After everything, I think I’d stick with Steve – I just think it’s too early to give up on him. And this is coming from a guy that loves Rashard Mendenhall’s game – I’ve always thought he’d be the best running back from his class (Chris Johnson is making a case though, ha). I just think the Steelers aren’t going to stop throwing the ball too much, it’s their weakness right now – funny, their weakness is their own doing – but this is often the case – crazy life lesson… ha. Slaton is a big time risk right now, but depending on your roster, probably one worth taking – he proved to be a great second half runner last season, has easy run defenses in his future, and just lost a big time player in the offense that should give him more touches.

That’s my take. Good luck Brian.
PW

Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Football Advice Week 8

This is Papa Weimer, back again for some fantasy football question and answer action. I had a couple tough calls last week, even going so far as to advising a fantasy reader to sit Ricky Williams (80 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns) for Tashard Choice (0 carries, 1 catch for 23 yards) but man, guys, how am I supposed to predict something like Choice getting shut out on the ground and Ricky dicing up the Saints stellar run defense for the most touchdowns in one single game of his entire career??? Shoot, sometimes I miss, but I always take a shot. So, feel free to send your questions to papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I’ll be here to try and steer you away from carrots and ketchup, and get you closer to apples and cheese – yes, the latter is better than the former… Here’s this week’s early emails….

no banners

Brad from the internet writes in, “I have a trade question. I currently have a trade offer, I have Steve Slaton and I have been offered Matt Forte for him. Slaton has been doing pretty good for because the Texans have been using him as a receiver but his rushing has not been so good. I’m a Bears fan so I need some advise!! LOL. I really want to make this trade cuz I believe Forte will turn around or am I just being a fan?? Thanks for your help!”

Brad, I hope I can steer you in the right direction. Here goes nothing. I’d stick with Slaton, at least for now. I love Forte’s game, he’s tough, he’s got great feet, and when you give him enough chances to succeed he usually does. The problem with the Bears is that they just aren’t a team ready to give a running back good fantasy numbers. Jay Cutler has a great arm, and his style over his short career has meant a couple things. His teams will score fast. That’s good for offensive numbers, but not really great for running backs. The faster the score, the fewer plays it takes, the fewer chances your RB gets to get break one. He also doesn’t check down. He’s been known for locking onto receivers and throwing it regardless of coverage. Look at it, he seeming choses a play for a player, like in Madden 2009, and just goes there not matter what you do. This is a problem for a couple reasons. Interceptions and incompletions also cause for a shorter offensive series. Also, when you don’t check down, your RB with great hands and receiving skills rarely gets catches. Now, unless this changes, I think Matt continues to struggle. This is why I was warning you Bear fans about getting so happy with the addition of Cutler. Great arm, not always the decisions you need to win football games. Then you add in the schedule over the next 5 weeks. Forte’s value might even go down from here. This week is a great match=up, sure, the Browns come to town to give Forte plenty of chances to up his fantasy stock, but what about after that? 4 Top-10 Rush defenses go up against the Bears, the Cardinals (1), the 49ers (6), the Eagles (11) and the Vikings (10) – and the Vikings are probably much better than any one of those. That’s a tough 4 game stretch where you’ll be looking for a playoff spot. You compare that to Slaton playing just 2 Top 10 defenses for the rest of the season (Titans-10, Dolphins-4) and I think you see why i’d stick with Steve. I think Forte will have some solid numbers late, but after this week it doesn’t look so bright. Good luck in either way you decide.

no banners

William Bad-Ace from Beaver Falls, PA asks, “What is your best pick for survivor this week? I no longer have the Colts, not that they are a sure thing this week against San Fran anyway, I’m basically deciding between Chicago, San Diego, and Houston – any thoughts?”

Sure Billy, I got some advice for your Ace. I like the teams you listed, all could be a decent option. And yes, you’re right, Indy is far from a sure thing against a tough Niners squad. When’s the last time Indy played a physical football game anyway? Arizona in Week 3 or Miami in Week 2. That’s a long time ago. I’d steer clear from that game in survivor action. Of your choices, I’d rank San Diego #1, Chicago #2, and Houston #3. I think San Diego should slap Oakland around, but the Chargers are a little bit like the Eagles in that they rely heavily on the pass, and that can always come back to haunt you. Chicago plays Cleveland, but I’m not 100% here either, the Browns have a good offensive line and the Bears defensive front got blown out of the water by Cincinnati’s rushing attack last week, this could be more interesting than people expect. Houston should win, but Buffalo hangs around in a lot of football games, and that secondary can pick it with the best of them. If Houston runs, I like them to walk here, but they are no guarantee to keep it on the ground for too long. My favorite pick this week is actually one you didn’t even list. I like the Cardinals to absolutely slap the Panthers around like a JV team. Arizona beats up opposing rushing attacks and that’s all the Panthers can really do. I see a long game for Jake Delhomme, if he’s even the guy at QB in this game. The match-up favors Arizona so much that they are my biggest sure thing of Week 8. Hope that helps!

no banners

Ryan from Seattle asks, “Who do you start this week, Ryan Grant against Minnesota, Knowshon Moreno against Baltimore, or Donald Brown against San Francisco? Yeah, tough spot, appreciate any help you got. Non-PPR….”

Ryan, you are in a pickle. But I think the answer is Ryan Grant. The Packers got away from the run last time out, but there is, at the very least, some evidence that says Grant could do solid things against that ferocious Vikings defensive front. The Steelers gave their starting running back just 10 carries last week, but he plowed away for 69 yards in limited chances. Ryan got just 10 carries against the Vikes last time out, he went for 50 on those looks. The Packers have decided to keep Grant more involved, and it’s been a good thing, dominating the last two games where Grant carried 20+ times (24 in Detroit, 27 last week), and if they know what’s good for them, they’ll commit to him again this week. I don’t know if I see a touchdown, but 80 yards or so could be in the cards if the Pack has removed their offensive play calling from the pass-happy garbage can. Hope that helps, good luck!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 6 Fantasy Football Advice

It’s been a pretty busy week for me in fantasy football with answering questions for week 6. No doubt the listing of my email address last week (papaweimer50@hotmail.com) was just the trick I needed to be in here hunting and pecking for the right words to answer questions. I’ve listed some late questions and answers from last week’s stuff below, I also have some relevant questions for this weeks fantasy football action. If you have questions, ask them. If I get enough by later in the week, I’ll post my questions and answers again in Ask Papa Weimer Week 6, section b or 2 or something of the sort. Stop trying to confuse me. I’m witty folks, unflappable like Tiger and Larry Bird and Michael Jordan put into one chubby old white dude. I call it how I see it!

Last Week’s Late Questions:

Michael from Denmark wrote in, “I play in a points league, that also awards receptions. I’m pretty well set in most positions, but have big doubts as to who I should start in the flex position. My options are Tashard Choice, Rickie Williams and Roddy White. I like Choice’s matchup against the Chiefs, but with Barber recovering, I fear a dip in his workload. Rickie Williams is playing well, and with Pennington out, he could see enough of the ball to produce good numbers, but I don’t particularly like the Jets matchup. Roddy has been rusty, but as my top draft pick at WR, I feel that I shouldn’t abandon him completely, and I’m confident he will start to produce at some point, I’m just not sure it will be against a strong 49’ers D.”

Michael, thanks for the email. I am pretty sure I would roll with Tashard Choice. He plays against the worst rushing defense in the league, or at least one of them, and while Barber is expected to play, he’s not going to be fully healthy and the Cowboys didn’t want to make him carry the ball every time even when he was fully healthy. Choice is a very good runner that explodes through the line, and he has a very good chance to get a lot of carries for the Cowboys, especially if they get up early against the Chiefs. I wouldn’t start Ricky just because he’s going against the Jets. New York is great against the run, and they certainly won’t be too worried about Chad Henne beating them all day. Roddy is a great player, but until I’m convinced they are going to try and get him the ball, I’m going to stay away from him against great defenses. He’s a beast, always a threat to make a big play, but Nate Clements is one of the best defensive backs in the league, and thus I expect him to give Roddy a tough time all day long. In a better match-up, I would definitely give Roddy a shot. All’s not lost with him, but hopefully the Falcons will start taking chances with their best receiver… I think the match-up insists that Dallas could be up early and up big, and if that’s the case, why would they waste Marion and risk getting him hurt just for mop up duty in the 2nd half? That will be choice’s job, a job he’ll do very well, and he rates out highly as a flex option for me this week. (now of course Roddy White blows up, and Ricky did work too, luckily for me Teshard was plenty for Michael to win his league, even though he started Sims-Walker: he was luckier than me in that regard!)

BSimmons wrote in, “I have a question on which WR to start. Donald Driver is out for me this week and I have Nate Burleson, Donnie Avery and Braylon Edwards with his new team.. Who should I start?? Thanks in advance!”

I think your starter is Nate Burleson, and by a long shot. I’d either wait for Edwards to prove himself in New York, or sell him to someone who loves him in New York. It’s hard to join a team in Week 5 and be a plus player the rest of the year. Chris Chambers wasn’t very good for San Diego a few years back, and Roy Williams did nothing in Dallas last season. I don’t know of a situation where a mid season trade at receiver went well for that receiver’s fantasy stats. Avery is a nice talent, but he’s still battling a hamstring injury, and his QB situation is brutal at best. I’d leave him on your bench until he proves that he’s completely healthy. Nate has a great match-up against a porous secondary, and he gets nearly 10 targets a game or something like that. I like him as a start this week. Hope that helps! (all of these guys had nice weeks, but I found the top gun of the three, as Nasty Nate finished with 10 more points than either Donnie or Braylon – that being said, Braylon really impressed me for the Jets, he could be a solid play the rest of the season. I wonder if he eats into Jericho’s numbers?)

Stuck in a Trailer writes, “I’m stuck in a trailer in Colorado. I figured my best bet was to ask you my fantasy question this week.  Do I really sit Steve Smith (NYG),  my other receivers are Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Mike Sims-walker.  A lot of people seem to think these guys are the better choice this week.  What’s your thought? Thanks!”

Has the snow begun or what? Jammed up in a trailer, I can see sitting Steve Smith. Anquan Boldin has a great match-up against the Houston Texans secondary, Larry Fitz should get lots of attention, and you know Kurt and company will be throwing the ball. Calvin Johnson plays against a Steelers secondary that has been brutal against the pass this season. And Mike Sims-Walker goes against the Seahawks, minus their only stud corner (Trufant) and in a huge rut the last three weeks. Steve has a tough match-up with Nnamdi but you’re right, it’d be tough for me to sit him after all he’s done. I’m not sure he’s the type of receiver that Oakland will try to take away with their top corner, but there’s a chance. If I were going to sit one guy and play Smith, I would sit Calvin Johnson, if only because if I was Pittsburgh I would just try to blitz the snot out of Culpepper with double coverage on Calvin. So yes, I would probably end sitting Steve Smith, but it’s a coin flip with Calvin. Steve has the tougher match-up, and is playing against a bad Oakland team so Eli won’t be throwing as much. Hope this helps! (who knew Calvin would get hurt immediately and Mike Sims-Walker would not even get to play because he broke a curfew or something – sorry man, hope the Trailor is warming up! – At least I helped him out properly with this next one…

” Stuck in a Trailer tries me again, “Thanks for the Quick reply.  I just might sit Steve this week and hope it proves to be one of those decisions I can brag about.  Your input was helpful in my decision making so I thought I might get your take on one more conundrum.  DeAngelo Williams, Clinton Portis or Reshard Mendenhall. Can only pick two and so far I think I have switched them around about nine times. No snow as of yet, but between awaiting your responses I’m stocking the wood shed.”

This Week’s Early Questions:

David in Minnesota sent a fearsome foursome of questions my way, “Maclin or Manningham who will be better in the long run? Chester Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Derrick Ward, or Fred Jackson which of these would you keep and why? What about giving up Manningham for Sims-Walker, would you make that deal? How would you rank the following and why: Royal,Collie, Nicks Hakeem, and Crabtree.I am looking for a bye week replacement and a potential WR to take over for TO if he and Edwards don’t get their act together. Thanks for all your help!

Anytime David – Here are your answers in order of the questions… Career-wise, Maclin, he’s a special dynamic – and this season, it’s a tough one. It depends on what you’re going for. Owning an eagle receiver is a scary gig. How many games will DeSean Jackson have 1 catch for 0 yards? I think Manningham is going to be good for 4-5 catches a week, a touchdown 6 or 7 times, and a decent flex or back-up receiver start. I think Maclin could have a couple no-shows, like Jackson this week, but that’s because the Eagles roll that way. It’s tough, surely, but I think Maclin has a better chance to have a huge week while Manningham has a better chance to be decent week in and week out. But, with the Eagles you really never know. If you want consistency, Manningham is probably your best bet. If you want a shot at big points, Maclin is your lottery ticket. Hope that helps David, that’s the best I can do.

Boy, tough call on those running backs; And it would depend on who your other running backs are. If you’re looking for a guy that might not do anything, but if his starter gets hurt he’ll be a Top 10 back, stick with Chester Taylor. Fred Jackson is another guy like that, but he should probably continue to get fantasy numbers, so keeping him around might be easier, but his upside isn’t as high as Chester’s. Derrick Ward has lost a lot of value with the emergence of Caddy and his health, and the demergence of the Bucs wanting to win this season. Jamal Lewis looks like he’ll get all the carries if he’s healthy, and that offensive line is tough, but I just don’t see the offense in Cleveland being worth while this year, that passing game is quite pukeish. Still, of all the guys you listed, I think Jamal is the surest thing for carries on a weekly basis. He has some tough match-ups, but if you’re looking for a guy to start week in and week out, Lewis might be your answer. Again, not a sure thing answer here, but hope that helps.

As for the WR switch, I would much rather have Sims-Walker….
And finally, I’d take Royal #1 because he is the best receiver you’ve listed, and he’s not a rookie. Hakeem Nicks and Collie are tied, in my mind, they will both be contending with other receivers all year long, and while Collie has been more productive, he’ll lose touches in two weeks when Gonzo returns from injury while Nicks might gain touches as he gets more comfortable with the NFL and Giants’ offense. I like Crabtree a lot, but he’s been out of football for quite some time, remember, he spent much of his off season getting healthy and staying off his foot. His talent is immense, no doubt, but it’s a long shot that he’s a top talent this season, so I’d rate him last out of that bunch, for this season.

Fantasy Football Advice: Ask Papa Weimer Week 5

I couldn’t get the deal done last week, but I still answered all the questions that came in. So those of you that wrote in, keep doing so. Those of you that want to write in but can’t figure out how, send me an email at papaweimer50@hotmail.com – questions asked will be questions answered. As for football this weekend, my respect goes out to Brett Favre. The Packers weren’t going to let Adrian Peterson beat them, and Brett didn’t mind one bit, he just went out and threw lasers all over the field to beat his former team. Good on ya Brett! On to the questions…

I’m Tim Too asks, “Do I trade Rashard Mendenhall now, with his value oh-so-high, or do I wait until after Detroit for him to have even more value?” I have Ronnie Brown, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, and Knowshon Moreno already, and I need help at receiver to pair with my current trio of Carolina’s Steve Smith, Nate Burleson, and Roddy White. If I can trade Mendenhall for Boldin, should I do it? Or should I wait and see if I can’t trade Mendenhall for Andre Johnson after this weekend?”

I would trade Mendenhall for Boldin right now if you could. I like Mendenhall, and my nephew absolutely loves the guy, but you have great backs and solid receivers, but Boldin would probably be your surest thing moving forward. You never know what Tomlin is going to do with Rashard, how his youth will get taught lessons, and how Willie Parker will be used in that offense. What you do know is that if Boldin is on the field he is a PPR machine that makes touchdowns happen. And while Kurt Warner likes him, Matt Leinart relies even more on Boldin. So no matter what happens in Arizona, you’d think Boldin does big things. I’d rather have Andre Johnson, but what if Mendenhall doesn’t dominate the Lions, what if Parker gets half the carries, I think that if you are going to trade Mendenhall, Boldin is a nice get in return.

William out West types, “Papa, I’ve been offered a trade in my league that rewards big plays, has yardage performances, and goes all the way to the end of the season. It’s a points league. Kyle Orton and Julius Jones for Frank Gore and Heath Evens. I am currently 4th in my league standings and the Top 4 teams get paid. It’s a big money league. Do I trade Frank, and his bum wheel, for a good back-up QB (my current back up is Vick) and running back help right now?”

William, no. Frank Gore might miss two more games. If he stays healthy after that, he’s a strong candidate to get 100 yard games multiple times, he’s the bell-cow in that offense, and Mike Singletary likes to feed him the rock. The last time he played he went for 200+ yards against the Hawks. His defense is very good and the offensive line is physical. Kyle Orton is solid, but the way the Steelers have been throwing the ball, I’d rather have Big Ben in almost every situation. Stick to your guns, ride out the rest of the way with Frank Gore, because in a league like this he has some great value. See if you can’t pick up a guy like Jerome Harrison off waivers, and just do your best to make it through the tough time that Gore is down. Think future, 2 games out now might be good for 10 games healthy in the future.

Desmond Parker says, “I know you are a fantasy guy, and the general football questions go to your nephew, but do you have a sure thing survivor pick for me this week? I can’t take the Ravens, Vikings, Packers, or Colts. Any help is good help as long as I stay in my pool…”

Desmond, funny you should ask, I like to call myself the survivor pool guru. A few years ago, when the Saints were playing well and St. Louis was winless, I took the Rams in the survivor pool as the single opponent I was going up against took the Saints. Well, the Rams were winless no more and I got paid. Now that’s balls. Luckily, this week you don’t need those kind of rocks, you have lots of good options. I’d rank them as follows. Giants @ home against Oakland, Philadelphia @ home against Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh @ Detroit. I’d stay with the home teams, but if you really don’t like those two games, the Steelers should blow out their first opponent this season. Good luck Desmond, feel free to write in anytime – any football question is good enough for me!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 16

You know the gig, so I’ll get right to the questions and answers… Enjoy… Congrats to those playing this week.

David writes in, “A couple quickies, Browns or 49ers, Keller or Z Miller? I need to pick between those… Thanks!”

That’s a good questions, but I my first instinct is that I’d go with the 49ers and Zach Miller – Miller is just more consistent, and he doesn’t have to rely on Brett throwing good or throwing piss. However, the Seahawks are dead last in the NFL in passing yards given up and only 5 teams have given up more passing touchdowns than they have. Houston’s not much better but they are a little, they are in the middle of the pack as to yards allowed. The Jets love to throw the ball so even thought it’s stupid for them not to give the ball to Thomas Jones, they will likely try to get their yards through the air, even though it is snowy and cold in Seattle this week (believe me, I’m just an hour or so North and it’s snowy and windy here). So after thinking about it long and hard, the Hawks match-up has me swaying more toward Keller. I don’t know man, it’s so hard. I guess if you need a big day from him, go for Keller, he has 3 scores this season and has had more great games. But if you want a sure thing, Miller is your guy. Over the last 11 weeks he’s had less than 40 yards receiving just once. Once. THat’s crazy for a TE. But he only has one TD. I’d go SF over Cleveland because of a couple reasons, 1. They have better playmakers on their defense and instead of playing deflated (like the Browns), they have been playing inspired since Mike took over as head coach. Also, Marc Bulger is and always will be a sitting duck that throws picks. Also, if I’m taking one defense in the Browns game, it’s probably the Bengals. They’ve been way better against the run lately – they haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher since Mewelde Moore in Week 7, and they’ve allowed just two all year. Crazy huh? And Dorsey can’t throw.

Johnson-ville from Jacksonville asks, “Would you start DeAngelo WIlliams, Joseph Addai, or Kevin Smith?”

JV, I’d go with Kevin Smith. I think he gets about 25 carries against the Saints this week, and I have a feeling that the Lions offensive line will be doing work against a Saints team that is basically already checked out. They’ve been eliminated. Bush is out. This should be a running game versus Drew Brees’ attempt to break the yardage record held by Dan Marino. I think Kevin Smith busts 100 yards and has a touchdown. I don’t think Addai or Williams will break the century mark in their respective match-ups.

Tim-e from Portland asks, “We have to decide our keepers in my work league before the last game in Week 17 – so I’m looking for some advice. I’m in a 12 team league where you have 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 FLEX, – It’s PPR, and you get bonuses for 100 yards at WR and RB, 50 yards at tight end, and 300 at QB – double bonus at 200, 100, and 450 – which four would you keep? DeAngelo Williams, Drew Brees, Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Jason Witten – thanks in advance.”

Tiny Tim-E – Interesting scoring format, and I think it definitely changes things. It seems like Witten is a great option, even though I hate the idea of keeping a TE – the way I see it is this, he’s going to bust 100 yards often, and thus he’s going to get double bonus action a lot. That is a huge bonus and could win you weeks. Led by a TE? Probably not, but he is definitely a big time scorer for you. I also hate keeping QBs, so I probably wouldn’t keep Drew. He’s having a hell of a year, sure, but as you well know QBs don’t blow up year after year after year. Now Drew’s about as sure as it gets, but part of me wants to keep Slaton, Marshall, and Chris Johnson. But, since Drew is a solid 300 option against just anybody in the league and thus his bonus will be enforced often. So, that takes one away from Slaton, Marshall, and Chris Johnson. I like Slaton, but I think Johnson is the more explosive of the two, and I have to imagine that LenDale gets less and less in that offense. So, my final answer is Drew, Witten, Marshall, and Chris Johnson. I think Marshall is one of the best in the league, and as Cutler matures Marshall will only get better and better.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 15

Darnell from his Iphone writes, “Actually there are 2 questions. 1) I have Derrick Ward starting in place of Brandon Jacobs and Larry Johnson. Good move or no? 2) Between these 4 WR’s, which ONE should get the start? Torry Holt, Laveraneus Coles, Kevin Curtis, Derrick Mason…”

Tough one. Larry Johnson plays a mediocre Chargers defense, and he has a history of torching them even when they were good. But Derrick Ward seems in line to get all the touches for the Giants, and even though the Cowboys have a solid run defense, that is a nice thing to have. I would keep your eye on Brandon Jacobs health, but if Jacobs is out then Ward is the guy I would go with as well.

As for the receivers, I’m not sure where to go here. Coles would seemingly be the best bet against a 28th ranked pass defense, but he’s been garbage and Brett has been erratic. I’d say he should be your upside pick though, at any moment he could have a couple touchdowns and nearly 100 yards.

Kevin Curtis hasn’t been a nice starting option all year, I don’t think I’d risk my fantasy playoffs on him – even though you never know.

Torry Holt – this guy only reminds me of my hatred for Marc Bulger and this pathetic offense. However, he has been more consistent lately, and they are going up against a Seahawks team that hasnt’ been good through the air. He’s had at least 60 yards and 4 catches in 3 of his last 4 games. He didn’t have the best game against Seattle last time out, but that doesn’t mean much. He’s a decent option this week.

Derrick Mason – this guy is probably your safest bet. He has good games against tough pass defenses (Giants, Colts) and in Week 4, the Pittsburgh Steelers. In that game he went for 137 yards on 8 catches, and while I wont’ expect that kind of total, I do expect him to approach 100 yards, more than I expect from any of these other guys. Picking a startin WR from a pretty average group is a tough gig, I had to do it last week and started Bernard Berrien over Housh – I lost because of it.

David wrote in, “Last week I agreed with you that that Portis would probably be my best bet, but I had Choice and Branch sitting on my bench. If I started either one I would have won. Oh well! I was going to play both but I figured Portis to play the whole game and Santana to catch a few passes. Zorn is not one of my favorites right now. Now to my question. Which defense would you play this week? Reasons and rank them if you could. Green Bay, Wash., Seattle. Also,”would you start Bess over Moss with sure 7-9 points or gamble on Santana against Cinn this week end?”

David, sorry for the bum info on Portis and Moss – I figured both would get their shots, and I’m still hating Zorn myself. Hopefully I can help you out this week. I think I’d start Washington and hope for the best.

Washington plays the Bengals, and the Redskins should beat a bad team. They have playmakers on defense as I expect a couple interceptions and some big plays from Jason Taylor and company.

Green Bay isn’t a good run defense, and they go up against a jaguars team that just hasn’t played up to par – could be a shoot out.

Seattle has St. Louis, and while I like that match-up, the Hawks just don’t make enough fantasy points happen defensively (Offensively either for that matter, but we’re talking defense here). No big plays, with Kerney out there’s less sacks. At least Washington has some secondary playmakers, and Jason Taylor – plus Randel El could always bust a punt return or something.

The Moss gamble is exactly that, a gamble – I think I’d go for Moss, but I’m a gambler in fantasy circles. I know SF is a lowly rated pass defense and a pretty solid run defense- so maybe Chad will throw even more this Sunday – that might push you toward Bess – however, Moss could always be Moss, and while I just don’t think the Redskins will be forced to pass all that much, they also have nothing to lose by airing it out a little. Tough call, but I’d start Santana.

Ask Papa Weimer #1 – 2008 Pre-Season

This is the section where you ask me the questions. I may be old and I may be stingy, but you can bet your balls that my fantasy advice will steer you in the right direction. With some new pills and a nice little workout regimen that includes a couple of hours a day with my new fiancé I’m feeling better than ever before. HA! Let the games begin… You know the program, grip it and rip it, ask it and I’ll answer it – send your questions via email to papaweimer50@hotmail.com and this old fart will respond as soon as possible. Pre-Season games start this Sunday, so indeed, the season is beginning.

JJ from Cincinnati says, “Hey Papa, it’s nice to see you’re back in the game this year, and I can’t wait to get your answers. It begins and ends with my Bengals, and I’m just wondering, do they have a chance to put up big offensive numbers this season? Which rookie receiver do you like the most and is Rudi worth rounding up?”

JJ – I’m actually liking the Bengals value in early mocks and pre-season drafts. Chad Johnson seems to be slipping to Round 3 in almost every situation, which I think is a great value for a guy like him, even if he isn’t all that consistent. The same goes for TJ, he’s slipping to Round 3 as well. In a league where passing is beginning to rule the world (two back offenses and tough defensive rules) TJ and Chad in Round 3 are great deals. Carson Palmer has really slipped despite having a solid season in an overall down year for the Bengals. Cincinnati will have to throw a lot, because regardless of their rookie and free agent selections, they won’t be a dominant defensive force – you can bet on that. Carson is a 4000 yard 28-30 touchdown guy this year, and right now he’s going in the 5th or 6th round. I like his upside, and think he’s one of the best signal callers in the game. The Bengals aren’t the offensive force that people think they are – but they do get in scoring position a lot. I think they will put up nice numbers overall, but they’ll struggle to outscore opponents at a playoff positioning tilt. They have a chance though, no doubt about that. As for Rudi, I’m not sold on this guy yet. Last year he ran a lot like Shaunna Alexander and that’s just tough for me to stomach. He gained some weight, and that’s a good sign, if, and only if he didn’t gain too much. He’s a risk, but in Round 5 or 6 he might be worth it. Remember, he did put up 1300+ yards and 12 touchdowns in 3 straight season, and it’s not like he’s 30 yet. Good luck!

Piccadilly Circus in Pullman says, “I’ve got three quickies for you; do your best! 1- Does Ronnie Brown really fall to the 4th or 5th round as a nice 3rd running back, or is he going to knockout expectations? 2- Is it just me or are quarterbacks getting picked earlier than ever this year? 3- I’m looking for a running back that I can plunder after round 3 that just might shock the world with a brilliant season… got one for me?

Let me start by saying, how did you get a name like that? It must be a nickname, but even so, you’ve got some explaining to do. For your 3 deep thinkers, I have 3 quick answers. Ronnie Brown is a great get in Round 4 or 5 – he will indeed crush expectations. Ricky Williams is back, and he looks good, but Ronnie will get just about 20 touches in Miami and I love his chances to do well. He’s had a long time to recover from his Week 7 knee injury and he’ll pick it up quickly. Quarterbacks are screaming off draft boards everywhere, and if you put your ear to big ocean shell you can hear thousands of fantasy owners’ seasons flushing down the toilet. Don’t be that guy Piccadilly! Break the mold – RB, WR, RB, WR, RB, WR! 6 rounds – 6 steals! For your sneak attack in Round 3-6, I have two guys that fit the mold. Mike Turner and Reggie Bush. I love Mike’s game, and he’ll be perfect in Atlanta. The Falcons will be better and more balanced offensive this season, and Turner will do more damage than experts are predicting. He could batter defenses in the NFC South to the tune of a 1300 yard 12 TD season. He’s a beast. Reggie Bush is my sneaky runner of 2008. He’s better than people give him credit for, and now in his 3rd season he’ll start to show it. He’s not your normal back, but it’s very possible that he produces numbers similar to Brian Westbrook’s averages, and look at the history, that ain’t bad!

Jeremiah the Bull in San Francisco says, “I have to choose between Frank Gore, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, Reggie Bush, and Ronnie Brown in my 2 man keeper league. I’m thinking Frank and Reggie, but I’m willing to be tricked into taking Larry instead of a runner – feel free to sway me! I’m thinking twice because we can start only 2 RBs and 3 WRs.”

Just the Bull? Not the Bullfrog? Well, you are still alright with me. I can see your thinking with two solid backs, but I’m glad you through in the starting options, because Larry Fitz, in a league in which you start 3 WRs and only 2 RBs, is a great option to have – especially in the keeper format. I would take Fitz for sure, because he’s going to be a star and a #1 target as long as he’s on the field, and his hands and size are so great that he’s a consistent red-zone threat. Now if the Cards could only realize that Kurt Warner gives fantasy owners all the love they can handle, and Leinart is just a Heisman winner. Anyway, that leaves you with Gore or Reggie, and even though Mike Martz is an evil running game killer, I think Frank is great enough in the receiving game to make him a Marshall Faulk type guy. Gore is fast and powerful and he can reel in the ball. San Francisco sure can’t throw the ball, but I would hold onto your hometown runner – he’s the only think that team has going for them. Larry Fitz and Frank Gore – stick with those two studs.

Billy in Alaska says, “I’m in a pretty expensive keeper league and I have the choice of keeping my college pick from last season (Jonathan Stewart) and losing my 10th round pick in the re-draft or just keeping the pick. I think Stewart is worth it – what do you think? We keep 2 guys every season, if that helps…”

Billy – keep Stewart, he’s a stud in the making and he’s definitely worth a 5th or 6th round pick, so losing a 10th is a great deal. You may not keep him around next season (depending on your keepers) but in the re-draft this year you could grab DeAngelo Williams in the 7th or 8th round and then you’d have a sure thing starting running back with upside regardless of who wins the job. I like Stewart a lot, think he’s the best running back in the ’08 draft, but Williams has solid upside as well, so make sure you grab him. Getting a sure thing starter with an 8th and a 10th is a great deal, so don’t pass it up!