Tag Archives: Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears Sunday Night NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (-2) @ Chicago Bears Sunday Night NFL Pick: This Sunday Night Football game is intriguing. Not because either of these teams is living up to their lofty expectations but because both are playing very poorly of late, losing 7 of their last 10 combined. The Eagles have lost 3 of 5 while Chicago is 1-4 since beating Detroit and starting the season 3-1. But there’s a little sexiness in there too, two good quarterbacks, one young – Jay Cutler, one a seasoned veteran – Donovan McNabb, an Eagles team that really needs to start winning if they want to compete for an NFC East title and a Bears team that is basically a loss away from looking forward to next year.

The Eagles are 5-4, both straight up and against the spread. They have lost to Dallas and San Diego in back to back games. Their other two losses were to the Saints and Raiders, of all teams. They’ve beaten the Giants, Redskins, Buccaneers, Chiefs, and Panthers – not necessarily the best wins to signify greatness. The Bears beat the Steelers in Week 2, after that they have wins over Seattle, Detroit, and Cleveland – so neither team has done much against the top level.

But here’s the deal, Philadelphia is a pretty good team – Chicago is a pretty bad team. The Eagles might not run the ball well, but it’s not like Chicago is worth a dime on the ground either. The Bears give away turnovers like non-perishables, and the Eagles can make a team look silly in a hurry. I’ll take the better team.

Arses Five Favorites: Week 11 NFL Picks

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Okay, so this is my first picks article ever, and while I’ve said many times that this stuff is easy, we’ll just have to see. I’ve done alright on my own card this year, so Lucky asked me to put my thoughts (that were making me money) down to paper. Since I’ve made most of my money taking favorites, I usually bet 3-5 favorites a game, LL told me to just go with what’s working and select my top five favorites per week (plus he says, Papa has the dogs). He told me that it was okay to go opposite him, which makes me even happier (because like I always say, anything worth playing is worth beating your friends at). Here’s what I got for week 11.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Baltimore Ravens: It’s funny, Lucky got these guys as a dog (though just a point) earlier in the week, I get them here as a favorite, and I have to admit, I’m equally happy. I don’t see a point making the difference. There’s no doubt that the Ravens have some confidence, and they love when nobody gives them a chance, giving them a shot in this game. But Peyton has owned the Ravens, and this isn’t even close to Baltimore’s best secondary they’ve had over the years. This one seems easy enough.

Green Bay Packers (-6) @ home vs. San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have played a lot of close games, and they can run it, but the Packers are definitely a trouble-match-up for San Francisco. They put a lot of pressure on young receivers with their physical corners, and they don’t run the ball that much on offense, so who cares if the 49ers shut down the run well. San Francisco did not play to win last week against Chicago, and they are lucky to hold on against a bad team. I like Green Bay to win by a couple touchdowns.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) @ home vs. Buffalo Bills: The Jaguars have been great of late, and they are feeding their best player the ball. The Bills are a mess, fired head coach, terrible offense, new quarterback, injury ridden defense – nothing much to like there. Jacksonville is better than given credit for.

New England (-10.5) @ home vs. New York Jets: I just don’t see the Jets hanging in there twice in a row. The Patriots weren’t playing well to start the season while the Jets were playing on cloud 9. That hasn’t continued, on either side. The Pats have been back to domination on offense, their defense has been stout, and the Jets have fallen hard in both areas. Injuries and youth have not served them well. Plus you have the Pats coming out fired up, looking for redemption and to put last week’s last second loss to the Colts out of their minds. I expect a Patriots killing.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Chicago Bears: Lucky’s right about this one, the Bears just aren’t good. Neither of these teams have been stellar, but the opportunistic Eagles defense against Jay Cutler – lets just say Va-Jay-Jay Cutler will be making that shame face early and often. I’m looking for him to wrap up the passing title this week, passing to opposing teams that is. Gimmie the Eagles.

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Diego Chargers Prediction

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Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ San Diego Chargers Prediction: I got this spread late Monday Night, and I’m happy about that. As the week has moved closer to Sunday, the spread has moved closer to even, and while the people that bet early on Philadelphia get the 3 points, a field goal push, those betting this weekend will be lucky to get +1-1.5 on my side of this game.Still, 57% of the betting public likes the home team in this one.

The Chargers are 2-2 at home this season, winning 23-13 against Miami and 24-16 in a close game with the infamous Oakland Raiders. They’ve lost to Denver and Baltimore in two close gams. Basically every game San Diego has played in this year has been a close contest. Their biggest loss was by 10 to Pittsburgh, and it probably wasn’t that close. Their most lopsided victory was a 37-7 shellacking of the Kansas City Chiefs. San Diego has won three straight coming in, and while the first two hardly count (KC and Oakland) the last win on the road against the New York Giants was impressive.

But Philadelphia kicked around New York one week before San Diego played them, 40-17. The Eagles had one of their “what the hell just happened” games against Dallas last week, making too many errors, missing throws, dropping balls, and being unable to stop the Cowboys late in the game. The Eagles definitely have been up and down this season, losing at Oakland, beting up on Carolina and the Giants, kicking around teams they should beat.

The Eagles should beat San Diego. They are better than the Chargers. They score more points, allow fewer, play well on the road, can stop the pass and limit the run – they are better in almost every statistical category. I like them to win outright in San Diego, but I’ll happily take my free field goal just in case.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick & Preview

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Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2) Pick & Preview: In my experience, when a road team is an underdog by less than three points, the oddsmakers are saying that the road team is the better squad. I can’t believe, not one single bit, that Dallas is the better team.

Both teams can be complacent against lesser opponents, and both can forget the run and pass the ball too much, but in no major part of the game are the Cowboys better than the Eagles. Not offensively, not defensively. They might have a better offensive line, they might even run the ball a little better – but the Eagles can put up points quick, they are solid in every aspect of the game, and I think that gets them the win at home against the Cowboys.

Dallas has one good win, at home against Atlanta two weeks ago. They played well and should have beat the Giants, but Mr. Romo went kamikaze style on his squad. They played decent against Denver, but the Broncos looked like the better team throughout. Tampa, Carolina, Seattle, and an overtime win over Kansas City mark the Cowboys other 4 wins. Lucky schedule. Now I think Dallas is solid, heck, right now I see them as a playoff team. They are getting better defensively and offensively I think they are finding their way again.

But the Eagles do so many things well, and Dallas doesn’t have the secondary to stop Donovan and company. They struggle against elite speed at receiver, and I think Maclin and Jackson are probably the fastest starting receiving duo in the league.

Then there’s confidence. The last time Dallas came into Philly, a playoff birth was on the line, last week of the 2008 season, and the Eagles stomped the Boys 44-6. Yeah, 44-6… The Eagles have won 5 of the last 7 against Dallas. Philly is 3-1 SU and ATS at home this season. Combined, these two teams are 11-3 O/U on the season. Points are going to be scored. I think Philly’s defense makes the big play and gets the win for the home team.

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles Free Pick

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New York Giants (+1) @ Philadelphia Eagles Free Pick: I’m not sure which team played worse last week. I know the Eagles won, so automatically you have to say the Giants turned up the suck the loudest, but I’m not so sure the Eagles would have beaten anybody else in the league besides say Washington and St. Louis last Monday Night. They looked stagnant offensively, getting bailed out by some poor defensive plays on some big passes. That being said, the Giants only really effective pass play was Eli throwing it off the Cardinals secondary in hopes that they would deflect one to Hakeem Nicks. The worked once, and thus the touchdown happened. The Giants have taken it pretty good over their last two games, and I can’t say that doesn’t make me grin a little. The only problem is I picked them on both occasions, and I can’t say that doesn’t make me frown a little. So I have a weird face on, a grin-frown, and I’m still taking the Giants. I’m still rooting hard for Philly, but if the Raiders front can give Donovan and company fits, I believe the Giants’ front 4 will make life downright miserable for the Philly hurler. 68% of the public is with me, dang them. The Giants are 22-5 ATS over their last 27 road games. That’s filthy. Can you blame the public?

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 7 2009

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9-3-1… That is a record I would love every single week of the year. We could all be rich off that type of pick production and I’m going to do my best to make that happen the rest of the way. Of course, I’m always doing my best, making my picks, assessing the sitch-e-ation, and get the right side against that dreaded line. This week I missed on the Cowboys/Falcons game, and I didn’t give the Cardinals enough credit and might have given Eli a little too much after a nice start to the season, so those two games I fully accept as losses. But the Vikings? Please. They cover that game 8 of 10, and if it wasn’t for two freakish defensive touchdowns in the last 6 minutes of that game, the Vikings cover anyway. That being said, I must say I probably shouldn’t have covered the Saints/Dolphins game. So I guess 9 is right after all. Regardless, I won 9 games in a 13 game week, that’s good stuff, here’s the business….

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Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ Washington Redskins: (WINNER) The Eagles were playing awfully poorly to be up 20-7 in this game, then on 3rd and 24 Donovan threw a bomb to DeSean Jackson for a touchdown to go up 27-7. It was over at that point, basically, because everyone knew there was no way the Redskins were going to score 20 points from there forward. The Eagles tried to dissolve their easy cover, but Washington just couldn’t do enough – lucky me. The Skins D was solid, despite some big plays they allowed, if they only had an offense…

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants (-7): (LOSS) Eli looked more like Ellie in this one, missing on passes, getting them tipped, having that pouty face, getting some drops from a couple of those young receivers, just having an all around tough go of it. And of course they forgot to run the ball despite the success they had early. Oh the Giants, this is what they’ll do to you every once in a while, can’t dominate for all 16 games. Kurt Warner and company played solid football, definitley, but it was Arizona’s secondary that stole the show.

New York Jets (-5.5) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) “Unlike the Eagles, the Jets won’t forget the run, in fact, I think they’ll rely more heavily on it than any game this season. The pressure won’t be on Mark Sanchez’s arm, but the offensive line and a talented running back group. That should spell certain doom for a Raiders team looking to make it two wins in a row.” Well, the Jets lost one third of their talented running tree, but Shonn Greene came in and showed what he can do as the Jets had two runners bust well over the 100 yard mark. The Jets just flat out dominated, getting the Raiders to pull JaMarcus Russell, and think how bad he’s played this year while never getting the yank. Yeah, it was that bad.

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Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: (LOSS) Hey, I’ve always been here to take it when I lose, and I definitely underestimated the Cowboys in this one. That defensive front came to play, giving Matt Ryan trouble all day long, proving that you can still frazzle the young quarterback if you put the pressure on. With the Cowboys up big early, the Falcons pretty much abandoned the running game, taking away their strength on the ground with Turner and also Ryan’s most accurate part of his game, the play action. Kudos to the Boys. Great game for Mr. Romo as well.

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1): (WINNER) “The Bengals, favored at home, against a mediocre NFC team – yeah, I like my chances. Now, the Bears shot themselves in the foot all week long against the Broncos, and the game was still very close – but that doesn’t mean it’s going to carry over here. The Bengals also have a very good defense, a secondary that preys on mistakes by opposing quarterbacks, often baiting them into poor throws. Cedric Benson will have something to prove in this game, and I think he’ll get his teammates to climb on his back for this victory. He’s been running angry so far this season, and I think he’s been looking forward to this match-up for a long time.” Well, the Bengals preyed on Jay Cutler, baiting him into bad Jay Cutler-ish throws, and Cedric Benson stomped all over Chicago’s couches. It was a fun one to watch.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins: (WINNER) I really want to take the Dolphins here. I know the public is going to be jocking the Saints like nobody’s business, and Vegas is on pace to hit a few like that coming up. But I can’t buy enough into the Dolphins in the match-up. Why? The Saints have been too good against the run, and more importantly, too good running the ball. That’s right, you heard me. Lost in Drew Brees’s amazing season thus far is the glue that’s truly making this team great, the running back by committee approach. While Drew has been on fire, people forget to realize that this rushing attack has out-rushed every single opponent they’ve gone up against this season. That means two things, the offensive line has been dominant, and also, the defensive front has been stellar. You don’t out-rush every single opponent unless you can stop the run when you’re not on the field. That single aspect of this Saints defense makes me think the Wildcat might have met their match. I’d love to see the upset here, I just don’t think it will happen.

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Minnesota Vikings (+4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (LOSS) This should have been a cover. If you watched the game, you feel me. If you didn’t, just believe me. The Vikings were the side in this one, but sometimes you lose games you should win, and other times you win games you should lose – this time I was un-LuckyLester…

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (WINNER) “Big spreads for road favorites can often backfire with a pass happy team struggling to complete passes. But I see the Packers running the ball more this Sunday, holding the ball longer, and covering by at least a touchdown in Cleveland. Vegas or the people? Who wins this Sunday? Damn the man!” Hooray us, damn the man is right! Like I predicted, the Packers finally gave a good number of chances to the guy that should be their work horse, Ryan Grant. It kept Rodgers off the turf, and the ball in Green Bay’s hands. With that kind of attack, the Browns never stood a chance.

New England Patriots (-14.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (WINNER) When you have a great team against a crappy team, at least this season, the chances are really low that the crappy team is covering, even with a big bad spread like this one. The Patriots throw 5 touchdowns in a quarter, or anything like that, but this game was in hand very early. All these big favorites are covering, that goodness I had a bunch of them this week.

Buffalo Bills (+7) @ Carolina Panthers: (WINNER) “I don’t see what the Panthers have done to be a touchdown favorite against anybody in the NFL.” Regardless of what anybody thinks about these two teams, the bottom line was just as I wrote it, the Panthers shouldn’t be favored by 7 over anyone. The Bills didn’t do anything offensively, couldn’t really run it, and didn’t have great passing numbers, but they didn’t need to. The Panthers give points away weekly, and if you can just let them beat themselves, you’re in.

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San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Houston Texans: (PUSH) The 49ers fell down early, 21-0, and the Texans were definitely in charge. A quarterback switch, an inspired defense, and some big plays from Vernon Davis got the Niners right back in it, but they fell short a field goal, getting me a push. I’ll tell you what, being down 21-0 at the half, without an explosive offense, and still getting a psu – if that’s what bad looks like, I’ll be alright.

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) I was right on here, loved the Chargers by a touchdown or more, and they followed through and made me look good. The bottom line was that SD’s defense played very well last week, despite what most people remember from that Broncos’ game, and they continued that inspired play against the Chiefs, giving away absolutely nothing all day long. They won easily. Me too.

Indianapolis Colts (-13) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) Just a gimmie, a no doubter, the Rams facing two weeks of prepared Peyton Manning – it was 42-6, and I don’t think it was that close, I’ve got to be honest.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Redskins Week 7 Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ Washington Redskins Free Pick: I know 80% of the public likes Philly in Washington, but I still have to lean on the Eagles. I wouldn’t bet the world on this game, it’s probably not nearly as lopsided as everyone thinks – but the things going on in Washington just can’t be ignored. I know the Redskins rate out really well against the pass, but who have they played? What frightening offensive assault have they faced since Week 1 when Eli did them dirty? Stop me when I get to one, St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Kansas City – exactly. Ratings shmatings. I like the Eagles to come out with a little bit of piss and vinegar in their cleats, and after losing to the freaking Raiders I think they’ll fix some things, both on the field and in their minds. Me and 80%, yikes, yeah, I have to take the Eagles anyway. Something about switching your play calling duties to a guy that not only didn’t have a job two weeks ago, but one who had just started watching the Redskin’s games in the last two weeks. Sure, I always say I could do a better job calling plays, but I’m really just kidding when I say stuff like that, the clowns in Washington actually believe that garbage.

Papas Picks for Week 6: Only Underdogs! Ravens, Buccaneers, Raiders

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Papa’s Picks!

This is Papa Weimer, I usually leave making picks up to the intelligent youngster in the family, but this week I see a few underdogs that need to be mentioned. Now a couple of these are different from the wonder-kid, but I’m putting myself out on the line and saying even the guys who are always right give a wrong pick now and again. These are my Top 3 underdog pick:

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Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings: I don’t know about you guys, but there’s something about AP getting shut down by the Packers and Rams that get me shying away from the old man and his gang of purple clad cronies. The Vikings are solid, no doubts about that, but Ryan Grant and Steven Jackson had pretty solid numbers over the last two games, and even though the Vikings have won pretty easily, I’m not ready to turn my shoulder on that. The Ravens run the ball twice as well as the Rams and Packers, so unless the Vikings are ready to turn it up at home this Sunday, and play a completely different game, I think they’re going to get an upleasant surprise. The AFC’s big dogs are tough, and the Ravens won’t walk gingerly into Minnesota. Lucky’s with me on this one, we both like us some Ravens this Sunday!

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5): Lucky has given up on the Bucs, and that’s fair, but what’s to like about Carolina? At least there’s a group of guys playing hard in Tampa, not just Jake Delhome in Carolina. Yeah, that’s right, despite his troubles, Jake is playing hard for his team. But that’s about it. That offensive line isn’t blocking tough enough to get two good running backs going, and they sure as all hell aren’t protecting Jake. Tampa ditched their Gaines Adams project this week, and I think that gets people thinking in Tampa, they’re trimming fat now, and it’s time to step up. I think the Bucs get their first win, because sometime they’re going to have to, but even if they don’t a close game gets me a win anyway, that extra half point late makes me a happy bettor. Go Buccos!

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Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders (+14.5): Hey, if Vegas is willing to give me a group of NFL football players and 14.5 points, I’m in. The Raiders are bad, sure, but only a couple McNabb interceptions need to happen for the Raiders to cover this spread. Maybe Al Davis is crazy, I wouldn’t doubt it, anybody that has combed his hair as much as that clown probably needs to be checked. But Tom Cable has fight, and there’s only so much time before the Raiders come out and show some. I think that’s this week at home against the Eagles. I think Michael Bush becomes a huge part of the Raiders game plan this week, and while nobody has mentioned him as a fantasy sleeper this week, I think his big plays, and a touchdown or two give the Raiders just enough to put some blankets on this large spread.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Oakland Raiders Football Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (-14) @ Oakland Raiders: There’s no reason to take the Raiders here. They have no offense, their defense isn’t good enough to win games (circa Bears or Ravens of yester-year) and they have a clown owner and a head coach that likes to punch out assistant coaches when they even hint at how big of a circus he’s heading up in Oakland. These guys in the uniforms make the fans in Oak-town look normal. Have you seen that commercial where the guys are getting all dressed up for a KISS concert and when they pop out of their van in full KISS gear, it just happens that they read their tickets wrong and they were smack dab in the middle of Oakland tailgating? Well, the Oakland Raiders seem to play like a bunch of guys that did the same damn thing as the KISS guys. Sure, a new way is born, but that way is a joke. If JaMarcus Russell throws twenty feet short or thirty feet long on any more throws, I’m going to fall over laughing, and I thought he had a decent future. Lets face it, the Raiders are like the Clippers, they pay players lots of money in exchange for their souls. I feel bad for Richard Seymour, but I’m taking the Eagles favored by a couple touchdowns on the road. It’s a shame that Al Davis sold his soul in exchange for the Raiders franchise for eternity. I’m sure he’ll have roster moves and coaching changes written out for the next 20 years in his will. Philadelphia scores fast and often, they have a defense that takes advantage of mistakes, the Raiders make lots of mistakes, I think the defense might cover this spread all by themselves…

Free Week 1 NFL Picks

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I’m back in action. Fresh off one of my best seasons, I’m ready to deal out my absolutely, 100%, completely, with no small lettered catches at the bottom, Free NFL Football Picks. It’s not often that you get free like this, I know. Willy didn’t even get this free. Perfect. Well I guess you have that blasted internet bill, and you are likely paying for electricity, so it’s not completely free, but I’m not charging you anything. So, at least from me to you is free. Enough free talk. Lets talk football picks. I’ve busted out some previews and some fantasy football action and plenty of other football stuff. But now for the advice. Who do I think is going to take the cake in Week 1? The answers are below. Free. Ha – check them out!

Tennessee Titans (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: This isn’t the easiest pick for me, but in the end a hard nosed game, that promises to be an ugly smash mouth defensive battle, has me thinking 6 is just too much. I like the Steelers, don’t get me wrong, but the Titans didn’t get that much worse. Sure, they lost a lot with Albert Haynesworth (the Titans didn’t dominate without Haynesworth), and Pittsburgh’s defense is legit, but I’m not buying a repeat performance for the Steelers in 2009 – last year’s Super Bowl winners usually aren’t very good beginners – write that down. Their offensive line isn’t great, and that’s enough for me to take Tennessee on opening night.

Denver Broncos (+4) @ Cincinnati Bengals: I’m not sold on Carson Palmer’s health quite yet. Okay, I think he’s healthy enough to play, but I’m not sure he’ll come out firing on all cylinders to start the season. He’s been out for quite some time. The Broncos have at least one shut-down corner, and I like their defense a lot more than last season’s pathetic unit. I just think their game plan is better. I know they’ll be tougher against the run and put a little more pressure on the QB. Kyle Orton will be better than he showed early in the pre-season, Knowshon Moreno will be dynamic, because, well, he is dynamic. And the Broncos will be a little better than people thought they’d be. Josh McDaniels doesn’t have many fans as of now, but I’m one of them. There’s lots of big plays to be had on that offense, and Cinci isn’t really a machine on either side of the ball. I’ll take the points!

Minnesota Vikings (-4) @ Cleveland Browns: I may be riding with the public here (shoot 99% of sportsbook wagers are taking the Vikings against the spread… I hate picking Minnesota, but I don’t see it any other way. The Browns defense is better than advertised, but Minnesota will be able to gang up on the Browns rushing attack, and their two big guns up front are still in play after the court battle isn’t settled. The Vikings have a great offensive line and a QB, while quite long in the tooth, can make all the throws on the field, and has a tendency to start strong. I like Minnesota: me and everyone else.

New York Jets (+5) @ Houston Texans: This is a close one because the spread is 5, I like the Texans to win, but I like the Jets to cover. 28-24 maybe? Maybe less scoring? Here’s the deal, Mark Sanchez is the real deal. He has great feet, watch him, his confidence in the pocket is awesome. That offensive line is one of the top 5 units in football, and I haven’t even gotten to talking about the Jets defense yet. They may be missing Calvin Pace, but with David Harris and Bart Scott at linebacker, and Kris Jenkins protecting them, I think this team has plenty of playmakers and ball hawks to make some big plays happen. The Texans won’t be able to run, and the Jets will. That’s why I’m taking the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-7): I actually think this line is one of those that looks to good to be true. If Maurice Jones Drew, a guy that is obviously supposed to be the focal point of this offense in Jacksonville, was completely healthy, I would probably steer toward the Jaguars, but nothing about Jacksonville’s defense tells me that Peyton isn’t going to pick his way to score after score. The Colts might start off a little slow in their new schemes, but this is a veteran team with elite talent at very key positions. Bob Sanders out could hurt, but where are the Jaguars really going to pick apart the Colts? Indy looked better against the run in the pre-season. Like I said, that 7 points for the Colts originally made me think, great bet for the Jags, but after looking at it, the line seems about right. Indy at home against a team that can’t pressure Manning, nor can they guard all the offensive playmakers. So, after much deep though action, I’ll roll against the Jaguars, whom I think will turn it around this season.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I actually like the Bucs this season, I think they’ll be just fine as I noted in my Total Wins column. However, this is just a bad match-up for them. Despite having a plethora of backs, a trio I guess, and a pretty damn good offensive line, the Cowboys may just be too tough up front. The pre-season doesn’t always show it all, but last season it was real tough to run against the Boys, and this pre-season was no different. A couple solid run games did nothing against Dallas’s top unit. Many think they’ll lose a lot of punch without one of he league’s all time wide receivers, but I don’t see much drop off from this offense sans TO. They’ll run the ball more, which should bum Tampa Bay out, and check down more to guys like Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Patrick Crayton – the first two are big time play makers that will make defenses pay all year. I like Dallas to win by double digits on the road in this one. Not because the Bucs are bad, but because it’s just a bad match-up for the home team.

Miami Dolphins (+4) @ Atlanta Falcons: I’m such a baby, the Dolphins make me cry… A little Hootie and the Blowfish for ya, you bet. Alright, so I’m taking the Dolphins because they only got better. They seem to struggle a lot with teams that light up the airways and teams with really stellar run defenses that force Pennington to beat them over the top. Atlanta has neither of those aspects on their squad. I know the Falcons are a lot to handle in the run-game, and the Dolphins don’t have the toughest run-stuffing crew in the league, but this group is talented, no doubt. I think Jason Taylor will be a great addition to this defense, and I see Matt Ryan having a lot of trouble every time he drops back. Joey Porter and Taylor are no joke coming off opposing edges. The Dolphins just seem to find a way to win in close games, and last year they played a lot of close games. They can run the ball really well, Pennington plays close to mistake free football, and Matt Ryan still has to stare down the sophomore slump. This game will be very close, and those 4 points could really come in handy.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (-13): I think the Ravens run all over the Chiefs and that punch-less KC “offensive” attack has a lot of trouble doing diddly in Baltimore. Bo don’t know Diddly, but I do, and the Chiefs won’t be doing it. Got me? Nobody runs against the Ravens, and something tells me the Chiefs won’t change that history. Matt Cassel might be healthy enough to start, but I wouldn’t care if he got to borrow Randy Moss and Wes Welker for this one, he’s not going to light up the Ravens, even with a secondary that has become a little more unknown if not suspect over the years. This game has really shot up, from -7 to -13, and I still like the Ravens. It’s kind of gross, I know, to like a line after it’s almost doubled, but what can I say. I see Flacco being very accurate against a defensive secondary that recently cut their starting safety and is in the midst of changing defensive schemes under a new head coach. The Chiefs will win some games this year, just not these kind of games. 27-6 is a score I wouldn’t be surprised about.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (+1.5): I love the Eagles this season, really, I do. But I won’t love them against one of the best rushing attacks in the league until they do something or prove something with that front seven. They couldn’t stop the run this pre-season as I watched opponents run freely over the Eagles. Philly should put up a lot of points, and I fully understand that the Panthers have no interior defensive line either – but the Panthers will fully take advantage of that while the Eagles instead decide to throw the ball 4 out of every 5 downs… Just in this match-up, I like the underdog, hometown, returning best record in the NFC. Call me crazy. The Eagles just have too much hype for me.

Detroit Lions (+13) @ New Orleans Saints: What can I say? I’ve never liked the Saints as a huge favorite against anyone. While they have plenty of fire-power, this is a team that can lose to anybody. Kevin Smith’s running ability, and a couple big plays through the air between rookie signal caller Matthew Stafford and one of the best receiving prospects ever, Calvin Johnson, should be just enough to keep the Lions covering this spread in New Orleans. 5 of the Saints 8 wins were by 10 points or less, and while one of those was a 42-7 beating of Detroit, This line is moving on up, and is getting to 14 in some circles, so you might want to wait just to see – 14 obviously has more value that 13 for obvious scoring reasons. I like the Lions either way. One thing that really scares me is the fact that New Orleans was 7-1 ATS as a favorite last season, meaning they beat the teams they’re supposed to beat. Still, 13 points in Week 1 is too much for me, despite those stats telling me otherwise. A stat on my side sees the Lions at 7-1 ATS last season as a double digit dog.

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have not impressed me. They have a couple talented backs, but no run blocking offensive linemen to spring them loose. They have Kurt Warner, Larry Fitz, Boldin, and Breaston – but they have no toughness, and they just played too well late last season to not come back to earth this time around. The 49ers may have not signed their top draft pick, a guy with the dynamic playmaking ability they desperately need, but I think they’ll be fine without him. Frank Gore is going to run the ball a lot, and Shaun Hill will use that to get some play action throws to open receivers down field. The Cardinals won’t be as tough against the run this season, and the 49ers will be better at everything in Mike’s first full year as head coach. Their offense may be simple, but that toughness will shine through early.

Washington Redskins (+6.5) @ New York Giants: I don’t think the Giants are scary enough offensively to bust the Skins through the air. Washington will get more pressure on opposing offenses this season as Haynesworth really is that good. Al will also help ease the pain against one of the best offensive lines in the league, and I think Washington stacks the line against the Giants in this game. I think 6.5 is too much in a game that looks to have very few scoring opportunities.

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-8.5): Its hard for me to be too excited about the Rams, I called them the worst team in football last season, and despite the Lions hideous record, I stand by that claim. There was no team that was more pathetic than this Rams team a year ago. They no longer have Orlando Pace, but Alex Barron and Adam Goldberg at the edges instead. They don’t have Torry Holt or Isaac Bruce, but Laurent Robinson and Donnie Avery. Steven Jackson is still there, but unfortunately still is Marc Bulger. The guy kills more drives by hanging onto the ball than any QB I know. The defense is aging and hurting (like Leonard Little) and failed draft picks over the last couple years are coming back to haunt the new regime. That being said, it’s still 8.5 in Week 1 against a Hawks team that hasn’t proven to be beastly quite yet. I’m going on record and saying this spread is too high. It’s bad value, and I don’t know what I’m thinking by taking the Hawks anyway. It’s one of those times where I just have that feeling…

Chicago Bears  @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5): The Bears have gained some momentum going into Week 1. Jay Cutler has looked good in a Bears uniform, and Matt Forte should get more room to run because of it – but can they hang with the Packers in Green Bay? I don’t think the Bears are healthy enough up front, to be honest. I know that sounds crazy, but Chicago will continue to hurt in the front 7 without a healthy Tommie Harris. His push, with quickness against the run and pass, really makes a difference for this defense, and I just haven’t seen that yet. The Packers were better than their record showed last season, and that usually starts to even out the season after some tough luck losses. I expect Ryan Grant to get off to a nice start while Aaron Rodgers gives the Bears secondary fits. A key factor that has me going away from Chicago here is the Packers corners. That group is very tough on the young Bears’ receivers – they’re just too physical and too crafty for those young pass catchers. I like Green Bay.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-10.5): I like the Patriots to dominate in this game. Call me crazy, but I’m not sold on the Buffalo Bills offense, defense, special teams, coaching staff, ownership, etc. They could come out and surprise me, but after spending all pre-season putting together a special offensive plan only to fire the coordinator and scrap it all for something else cries of a TO blow-up on the way. He’ll be asking to get traded to Philly after this year is over. The Bills don’t have a powerful offensive line anymore, and while they do have a couple big time playmakers lining up out wide, I’m not sure Trent is ready to fully take advantage of their talents. New England, on the other hand, should continue to be a beast offensively. I’m probably riding on the Patriot train with a bunch of other public chalk lovers, but I don’t see the Bills slapping enough points on the board to hang with Tom and company. Belichick has had his way with the Bills over the last few years – that trend continues as Dick Jauron’s job security loses some sway. In my happiest of dreams, the OC is brought back half way through the season to take Dick’s job, and he leads the Bills to one of the most stellar offensive outputs in the 2nd half… Dreams. I’ll take the Pats.

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (+9): This line will likely move to 10 if you wait. I don’t have that options because I’m not allowed to wait. Schucks auto supply! Oh well, I still like the underdogs in this divisional match-up. I know, the Chargers get to show up and win, they can sleep through the season and easily take the division, and they have more talent in 5 positions than the Raiders have all over the field. I don’t care. What I care about is that the Raiders will be able to run enough to keep themselves in it. JaMarcus Russell has looked impressive enough to me, and he’s not a mistake prone guy. If a team can run, and they limit their mistakes, that’s good enough to walk with them and a nine point cushion. The Raiders won two straight to end last season, and those weren’t the Lions and Rams, those two wins were against the Texans and a Bucs team that only needed a win against the lowly Raiders in Week 17 to get a playoff birth. They didn’t get it, Gruden lost his job, the Raiders brass (AL freaking DAVIS) rejoiced. I hate the Raiders, let that be known, but I think their rushing attack and fewer mistakes keeps them close enough. If Richard Seymour wipes the sand out and gets to Oakland tomorrow, I like this bet even better.