Tag Archives: Week 9 Predictions

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick & Preview

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Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2) Pick & Preview: In my experience, when a road team is an underdog by less than three points, the oddsmakers are saying that the road team is the better squad. I can’t believe, not one single bit, that Dallas is the better team.

Both teams can be complacent against lesser opponents, and both can forget the run and pass the ball too much, but in no major part of the game are the Cowboys better than the Eagles. Not offensively, not defensively. They might have a better offensive line, they might even run the ball a little better – but the Eagles can put up points quick, they are solid in every aspect of the game, and I think that gets them the win at home against the Cowboys.

Dallas has one good win, at home against Atlanta two weeks ago. They played well and should have beat the Giants, but Mr. Romo went kamikaze style on his squad. They played decent against Denver, but the Broncos looked like the better team throughout. Tampa, Carolina, Seattle, and an overtime win over Kansas City mark the Cowboys other 4 wins. Lucky schedule. Now I think Dallas is solid, heck, right now I see them as a playoff team. They are getting better defensively and offensively I think they are finding their way again.

But the Eagles do so many things well, and Dallas doesn’t have the secondary to stop Donovan and company. They struggle against elite speed at receiver, and I think Maclin and Jackson are probably the fastest starting receiving duo in the league.

Then there’s confidence. The last time Dallas came into Philly, a playoff birth was on the line, last week of the 2008 season, and the Eagles stomped the Boys 44-6. Yeah, 44-6… The Eagles have won 5 of the last 7 against Dallas. Philly is 3-1 SU and ATS at home this season. Combined, these two teams are 11-3 O/U on the season. Points are going to be scored. I think Philly’s defense makes the big play and gets the win for the home team.

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks Free NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) Free NFL Pick: Ugh. This is a tough one for me. If you tune in weekly, you know I generally have some trouble picking Seahawk games, I think it’s because they are so erratic and I know so much about their team. Players wise, this team is very talented, offensively and defensively. They just have no confidence against good teams, and they can really stink it up.

On the other hand, they can play awesome against terrible teams. The Lions are terrible, I mean, they just lost to the worst team in football, err Steven Jackson. The Hawks can throw the ball well, and the offensive line shouldn’t have as many problems this week when the Lions defensive front comes to Seattle. Still, this is tough because how can you take the Hawks as nearly a double digit favorite? The value isn’t there.

That being said, I am taking them here. Why? Well, the Hawks are 2-0 against teams with losing records, and 0-5 against teams with winning records. So they play well against tomato cans (or fellow tomato cans, if you want to go that far) but they certainly struggle against good teams. Where does Detroit fit in? Right. Those two bad teams that Seattle has beaten, Jacksonville and St. Louis, a 69-0 combined score in those two games. Seattle’s defense plays well with a lead, something they should get this week at home.

San Diego Chargers vs New York Giants Pick & Preview

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San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants (-3.5): When this line came out I was very excited, somehow, somewhere, somebody decided the Chargers were a complete enough football team to compete with even a struggling Giants squad. Nope.

I know the Giants have struggled, I mean, look, my record has taken at least three straight hits on their behalf – but I’m not ready to give up on what I think about the Giants. They still have an elite defense and an offense that has been moving the ball, just struggling to get into the end-zone. I know Eli’s ouchy footsy injury might be hampering his ability to plant his foot, but I have a feeling the Giants show up this weekend.

If that means Brandon Jacobs and Ahamad Bradshaw running the ball 35 times, or if Ellie gets back to being Eli, or if it’s big plays on defense that set up Giant scores, what ever it is, I think the Giants have a very good chance to beat a Chargers team that just can’t make the big stop defensively. San Diego can throw the ball, but they don’t have the same rushing game they’ve had over the years, and the defensive problems that they ran into last season are still very evident.

Then again, there’s room to question the Giants here. They played mediocre football in Week 1 against Washington, of all teams. They won a game they should have lost against Dallas in Week 2. They then proceeded to win 3 more games against Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Oakland – woohoo! 3 straight embarrassing losses to good teams brings a little question to the equation, but I still think New York is the much better team here.

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints Free Pick

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Carolina Panthers (+15) @ New Orleans Saints Free Pick: The value here is with Carolina and it’s because they have an elite rushing attack and any time you give an elite rushing attack 15 points on Sunday, that bet has value.

Because of how the Saints have played, how they’ve come back and covered in games they probably should have lost outright, and that they refuse to lose as one of the two undefeateds left in football, they are hard to bet against. Not only have they been winning, but they are 6-1 ATS – but the Saints haven’t been two touchdown favorites since they played Detroit earlier this season – if that puts how ridiculous this spread is into any perspective for you. Panthers > Lions – believe me.

The Panthers have won 3 of their last 4 games, so what if their first two wins were over Washington and Tampa Bay and a loss to Buffalo is squeezed in there. The bottom line is, last week the Panthers figured it out and fed the ball to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, the best running back duo in football.

Why it took this long to keep the ball out of Jake Delhomme’s hands is beyond me, but proving to me that they will run the ball to win is good enough for me to take them as a 15 point underdog, even against this year’s “best team in football”.  62% still like the Saints – come on. The Carolina value is good enough for me.