Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns Free NFL Pick

no banners

Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) @ Cleveland Browns Free NFL Pick: Right now, at some of the different books I pay attention to, you can get this game anywhere from 10.5 to 12 points. The spread is definitely wide, but always big and giving the Browns plenty of chances to cover. 71% of the public likes Baltimore, a number that often stings the public while making the books mo money, mo money, mo money! But I think this time will be different.

During the Browns 7 losses this season, they’ve lost by less than 13 points just once, an overtime loss to a good Bengals team. The Browns have scored fewer than 7 points 5 times this season. They’ve scored one offensive touchdown or less in 7 of their 8 games. That’s absurd, but absolutely true. Sometimes things are unbelievable even though you can see them with your own eyes. Like the name Ochocinco on the back of a dude’s jersey. Like the Oakland Raiders. Like a dude in Cleveland completing just 2 of 17 passes… And winning! The Browns scoring 1 offensive touchdown or less in 7 of 8 games is one of those things. Mangini’s not even angry, he’s amazed, an entire cheese log…

As if being unbelievably bad offensively wasn’t bad enough, the Browns give up 170.5 rushing yards per game, that’s 31st in the NFL, right behind the Buffalo Bills. But at least the Bills are a Top 10 pass defense (actually 11, but you get the picture) – the Browns rank 22nd in pass defense as well. Not only do they give up yards, but they have almost no takeaways either. Only the Chiefs have fewer interceptions. This team is bad, and last time the Ravens played them, the Browns were exposed for exactly what they are. A team with no offense, no defense, and a clown in a man suit acting as head coach. Dreamy situation. Yeah, I’ll take Baltimore.

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts Pick & Preview

no banners

New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts Pick & Preview: This game is close, obviously, Vegas thinks so (hence giving the 8-0 Colts just 3 points at home) and I think so (hence I’m taking the Patriots and the field goal. Since the beginning, the public has liked New England in this one. Maybe Tom Brady’s the NFL darling, maybe people think the Colts are bound to lose one pretty soon, maybe those 57% are like me and they see a Colts team that is deflated by injuries, coming off a couple very close wins against solid football teams in San Francisco and Houston.

The bottom line is, both teams have had some tough games against opponents everyone expected them to beat easily. The Patriots struggled but won against Buffalo to start the season, and lost games against Denver and the New York Jets earlier in the Year. The Colts struggled a little but won at home against Jacksonville, in Miami, and then games against the 49ers and Texans. But both teams are winners – no doubt about that. Both can put up points in a hurry, and both are opportunistic on defense. They limit the big play and make few mistakes.

Picking a side is tough, no doubt, and the Patriots haven’t played well on the road, 0-2 in true road games (they had a ‘fake’ road game in England where Tampa Bay played as the home team). They lost @ Denver by 3 and @ New York against the Jets by 7. They failed to score 20 in either game, and while their defense played well, it was their offenses inability to get into the end-zone that lost them the game.

I don’t think they’ll have trouble scoring in Indy. And defensively, the Patriots are better than the Colts. The Patriots score more, give up fewer yards, gain more yards, and control the ball for longer stretches. The Patriots have been able to run the ball lately, something that should help them against a Colts defense struggling to stop opposing runners.

Papas Picks: Week 10 NFL Underdogs! Lions, Bengals, Bills, Seahawks

no banners

Last week I marched to my old ace drum, and what do you know, I came out aces, going 3-1 with my only ATS loss coming when the freaking Seahawks flew in late, just in the nick of time, taking a meaningless last minute interception to the house, getting Lucky Lester and the rest of the Hawks backers a win despite being outplayed throughout. But still, a tough loss, I’ll take 3-1 with a tough loss. You like underdogs? I sure do – here’s my top underdogs in Week 10.

Detroit Lions (+17) @ Minnesota Vikings: There’s not much to say about this one, except last time Detroit played the Vikings, the Lions played them tough. This is a 17 point spread, I’ll basically take anyone and 17 points – this one just proves it.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I get that extra half a point from 5 Dimes, I have to take this one. Lucky has said all along that these two teams are basically equal, and from what I’ve read, the home team doesn’t dominate this series. Cinci’s been great, I think they continue and keep this one close. 7.5, really? Has what Cincinnati has done meant nothing?

Buffalo Bills (+9.5) @ Tennessee Titans: Please. The Titans have won 2 in a row, that doesn’t mean they’re back to being the same team that won 13 straight to start the 2008 season. The Titans haven’t looked good enough to be a 9.5 point favorite against anyone, especially a Bills team that’s good at stopping an offense if they do just 1 thing. All the Titans do is run. This one will be closer.

Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ Arizona Cardinals: Listen, the Cardinals have been so up and down this year, and not very good at home, I’ll even take the Hawks against them. Seattle is coming off a bye week, something their injured list desperately needed, and I think it helps them against the Cardinals. Last time out, the Cards did exactly what Lucky thought they’d do, beating up the Hawks in all aspects. But Seattle isn’t as bad as their record insists, and I think they come out with a little pride in a game that has basically come down to being their season.

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Diego Chargers Prediction

no banners

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ San Diego Chargers Prediction: I got this spread late Monday Night, and I’m happy about that. As the week has moved closer to Sunday, the spread has moved closer to even, and while the people that bet early on Philadelphia get the 3 points, a field goal push, those betting this weekend will be lucky to get +1-1.5 on my side of this game.Still, 57% of the betting public likes the home team in this one.

The Chargers are 2-2 at home this season, winning 23-13 against Miami and 24-16 in a close game with the infamous Oakland Raiders. They’ve lost to Denver and Baltimore in two close gams. Basically every game San Diego has played in this year has been a close contest. Their biggest loss was by 10 to Pittsburgh, and it probably wasn’t that close. Their most lopsided victory was a 37-7 shellacking of the Kansas City Chiefs. San Diego has won three straight coming in, and while the first two hardly count (KC and Oakland) the last win on the road against the New York Giants was impressive.

But Philadelphia kicked around New York one week before San Diego played them, 40-17. The Eagles had one of their “what the hell just happened” games against Dallas last week, making too many errors, missing throws, dropping balls, and being unable to stop the Cowboys late in the game. The Eagles definitely have been up and down this season, losing at Oakland, beting up on Carolina and the Giants, kicking around teams they should beat.

The Eagles should beat San Diego. They are better than the Chargers. They score more points, allow fewer, play well on the road, can stop the pass and limit the run – they are better in almost every statistical category. I like them to win outright in San Diego, but I’ll happily take my free field goal just in case.