Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns Free NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) @ Cleveland Browns Free NFL Pick: Right now, at some of the different books I pay attention to, you can get this game anywhere from 10.5 to 12 points. The spread is definitely wide, but always big and giving the Browns plenty of chances to cover. 71% of the public likes Baltimore, a number that often stings the public while making the books mo money, mo money, mo money! But I think this time will be different.

During the Browns 7 losses this season, they’ve lost by less than 13 points just once, an overtime loss to a good Bengals team. The Browns have scored fewer than 7 points 5 times this season. They’ve scored one offensive touchdown or less in 7 of their 8 games. That’s absurd, but absolutely true. Sometimes things are unbelievable even though you can see them with your own eyes. Like the name Ochocinco on the back of a dude’s jersey. Like the Oakland Raiders. Like a dude in Cleveland completing just 2 of 17 passes… And winning! The Browns scoring 1 offensive touchdown or less in 7 of 8 games is one of those things. Mangini’s not even angry, he’s amazed, an entire cheese log…

As if being unbelievably bad offensively wasn’t bad enough, the Browns give up 170.5 rushing yards per game, that’s 31st in the NFL, right behind the Buffalo Bills. But at least the Bills are a Top 10 pass defense (actually 11, but you get the picture) – the Browns rank 22nd in pass defense as well. Not only do they give up yards, but they have almost no takeaways either. Only the Chiefs have fewer interceptions. This team is bad, and last time the Ravens played them, the Browns were exposed for exactly what they are. A team with no offense, no defense, and a clown in a man suit acting as head coach. Dreamy situation. Yeah, I’ll take Baltimore.

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts Pick & Preview

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New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts Pick & Preview: This game is close, obviously, Vegas thinks so (hence giving the 8-0 Colts just 3 points at home) and I think so (hence I’m taking the Patriots and the field goal. Since the beginning, the public has liked New England in this one. Maybe Tom Brady’s the NFL darling, maybe people think the Colts are bound to lose one pretty soon, maybe those 57% are like me and they see a Colts team that is deflated by injuries, coming off a couple very close wins against solid football teams in San Francisco and Houston.

The bottom line is, both teams have had some tough games against opponents everyone expected them to beat easily. The Patriots struggled but won against Buffalo to start the season, and lost games against Denver and the New York Jets earlier in the Year. The Colts struggled a little but won at home against Jacksonville, in Miami, and then games against the 49ers and Texans. But both teams are winners – no doubt about that. Both can put up points in a hurry, and both are opportunistic on defense. They limit the big play and make few mistakes.

Picking a side is tough, no doubt, and the Patriots haven’t played well on the road, 0-2 in true road games (they had a ‘fake’ road game in England where Tampa Bay played as the home team). They lost @ Denver by 3 and @ New York against the Jets by 7. They failed to score 20 in either game, and while their defense played well, it was their offenses inability to get into the end-zone that lost them the game.

I don’t think they’ll have trouble scoring in Indy. And defensively, the Patriots are better than the Colts. The Patriots score more, give up fewer yards, gain more yards, and control the ball for longer stretches. The Patriots have been able to run the ball lately, something that should help them against a Colts defense struggling to stop opposing runners.

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Diego Chargers Prediction

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Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ San Diego Chargers Prediction: I got this spread late Monday Night, and I’m happy about that. As the week has moved closer to Sunday, the spread has moved closer to even, and while the people that bet early on Philadelphia get the 3 points, a field goal push, those betting this weekend will be lucky to get +1-1.5 on my side of this game.Still, 57% of the betting public likes the home team in this one.

The Chargers are 2-2 at home this season, winning 23-13 against Miami and 24-16 in a close game with the infamous Oakland Raiders. They’ve lost to Denver and Baltimore in two close gams. Basically every game San Diego has played in this year has been a close contest. Their biggest loss was by 10 to Pittsburgh, and it probably wasn’t that close. Their most lopsided victory was a 37-7 shellacking of the Kansas City Chiefs. San Diego has won three straight coming in, and while the first two hardly count (KC and Oakland) the last win on the road against the New York Giants was impressive.

But Philadelphia kicked around New York one week before San Diego played them, 40-17. The Eagles had one of their “what the hell just happened” games against Dallas last week, making too many errors, missing throws, dropping balls, and being unable to stop the Cowboys late in the game. The Eagles definitely have been up and down this season, losing at Oakland, beting up on Carolina and the Giants, kicking around teams they should beat.

The Eagles should beat San Diego. They are better than the Chargers. They score more points, allow fewer, play well on the road, can stop the pass and limit the run – they are better in almost every statistical category. I like them to win outright in San Diego, but I’ll happily take my free field goal just in case.

East Carolina Pirates vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Pick

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East Carolina Pirates @ Tulsa Hurricane (-5.5) Pick: Call me nuts, but I like the Hurricane to snap their 4 game losing streak and beat the East Carolina Pirates this Sunday Night. After starting the season 4-1, the Hurricane have had a very tough schedule down the stretch, and while they’ve played solid football (for the most part), they just haven’t been able to get over the hump and get a victory. They lost by a touchdown to Boise State, 4 points to UTEP, and single point to Houston last Saturday. They got beat by a couple scores against SMU between the UTEP and Houston game, but like I said, it’s not like they’re getting whooped.

On the bright side, both of these teams lost to SMU. Both of them have lost to basically every good team they’ve played thus far. I just think it’s time for Tulsa to break out and win a game. They have lots of options offensively, they do a lot of things well, and can really put up points. Against an East Carolina team that can really struggle and has been limited through the air of late, I think Tulsa can just out-gun them. I think if East Carolina had Tulsa’s schedule, they’d be lucky to be 4-5.

The better team is the home team, despite records, despite their recent losses, the better team should come out and win this game. I’m taking Tulsa to win, I’m guessing by 10-14 points.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Pittsburgh Panthers Week 11 Pick

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Panthers Week 11 Pick: This game opened at -6.5 but was up to -7.5 on Tuesday morning when I sent out my Just Picks newsletter, obviously I’m stoked on getting that extra point. Losing by a touchdown still gets me a win, and the way Notre Dame has fought back in games this year, that extra half point might just come in handy. I still think Notre Dame is good value at +7 – they have more of an offensive air attack than anything Pittsburgh has seen this year, and that’s coming from a guy that can’t stand Notre Dame.

Pitt Panther starting QB, Bill Stull, has been absolutely great. Jimmy Clausen has been even better. I love to hate the kid and his “big name” style, but Clausen has been awesome this season. He’s thrown 20 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions, completing 68% of his passes – and you have to admire those 2770 yards through 9 games. Stull might not have as many touchdowns or yards, but he’s been key to the Panthers 8-1 season thus far. He should find plenty of room to make Notre Dame suffer this Saturday.

I think Pitt is the better team, but not by as much as everyone else seems to. Remember, even in losses, the Irish have played close. They’ve lost 0 games by more than a touchdown, and I have to believe there are a couple teams on their schedule that could give Pittsburgh a run. The Panther struggled against UConn and Rutgers a few weeks ago. They lost outright to N.C. State, of all teams, as Russell Wilson destroyed them for 4 passing touchdowns. Jimmy could do that. 7.5 is great value, 7 is solid too – I hope the Irish get embarrassed, but my money’s on a close game.

Miami Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels Free Pick

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Miami Hurricanes @ North Carolina Tar Heels (+3) Free Pick: The Hurricanes are 7-2 on the season, 6-3 ATS, and 3-1 on the road. They are 2-2 ATS away from home. The Tar Heels are 6-3 this year, 4-4 ATS, and 4-2 at home.

The Canes really struggle against teams that can run the ball, and the Heels have been on point with their run game over the last few weeks. They’ve out-rushed their last 4 opponents, FSU, Virginia Tech, and Duke – winning 2 of their last 3 games, and setting up a good ACC match-up with the visiting Hurricanes.

The Tar Heels have won 3 of thier last 4 while the Miami has won 5 of their last 6. The Hurricanes are 3-1 on the road this season. Their two losses came against defenses that stop the run, Clemson and Virginia Tech – that match-up is good for the Heels. I think they can keep this game low scoring, giving them a nice chance to pull the upset at home.

When it comes down to it, I like Carolina’s defense to take advantage of the mistakes Miami has. The Tar Heels have one of the most underrated defenses in the land, allowing just over 15 points per game. The Heels hold a nice edge in time of possession, and I think that goes a long way this Saturday. Getting Miami thinking that they have to do more with less is a successful recipe for getting the W. These two teams are very even, getting 3 points at home is good value.