Tag Archives: Free NFL Picks Against the Spread

Papas Picks NFL Week 7: Only Underdogs! Bears, Chiefs, Falcons

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So, I went 2-1 last week, and look to, at the very least, keep that 66.6% rocking hard as the season moves forward. I’m taking dogs here, nothing but dogs from here on out, and going to show you that if you pick right, the dogs can make you money. I have another trio of games this week, expecting three outright wins but I’ll take the points. Here goes!!!

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Chicago Bears (+1) @ Cincinnati Bengals: A lot is being said about Cedric Benson’s 1st game against the Bears since they cut him, blasted his work ethic, and basically told anybody that would listen how Ced was never going to amount to anything despite them spending a Top 5 pick on the guy. So at least one Bengal is going to be motivated come Sunday. But that’s not enough for me, and I think Jay Cutler has one of his “accurate games”, you know, 1 interception or less, carving up the opposing defense (though Cinci has been good this year on that side of the ball). I like the Bears to win on the road, I think their running game finally gets going a little bit, but not enough to make those owners that picked Matt Forte happy. Not that much.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5): The Chiefs are better than people give them credit for, the Chargers are much, much worse. Seems like enough for me, but wait, I have more. The Chargers defense hasn’t show the ability to stop anyone (even last week, they stopped Denver a bit, but Kyle Orton still came back to slice them up just enough to give the Broncos an easy win). If your defense can’t get off the field, then you can’t consistently cover road games where you are favored by 4.5 points. It could happen, sure, but the good money is on KC, and I’m a good money bettor.

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Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: This is hardly a true underdog, as a majority of the public likes Atlanta at most sports books, but they are still 4 point dogs, and in Dallas where the Cowboys have a lame-duck coach, their offensive coordinator seems to be slipping, their huge investment “best” receiver is probably still out with ouchy tummy, and their defense hasn’t been able to put pressure on anyone, it’s just hard to like the Cowboys. Tony Romo should turn it around a bit this week, but Dallas can’t lock down on opposing offense’s #1 threats, and thus Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should find wide open spaces in the friendly confines of Cowboys Stadium. If that big ass TV screen doesn’t get in the way, and if they can keep their focus on the game and off the hundreds of cheerleaders acting as cage dancers, I think the Falcons pull away from Dallas late. There it is.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Redskins Week 7 Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ Washington Redskins Free Pick: I know 80% of the public likes Philly in Washington, but I still have to lean on the Eagles. I wouldn’t bet the world on this game, it’s probably not nearly as lopsided as everyone thinks – but the things going on in Washington just can’t be ignored. I know the Redskins rate out really well against the pass, but who have they played? What frightening offensive assault have they faced since Week 1 when Eli did them dirty? Stop me when I get to one, St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Kansas City – exactly. Ratings shmatings. I like the Eagles to come out with a little bit of piss and vinegar in their cleats, and after losing to the freaking Raiders I think they’ll fix some things, both on the field and in their minds. Me and 80%, yikes, yeah, I have to take the Eagles anyway. Something about switching your play calling duties to a guy that not only didn’t have a job two weeks ago, but one who had just started watching the Redskin’s games in the last two weeks. Sure, I always say I could do a better job calling plays, but I’m really just kidding when I say stuff like that, the clowns in Washington actually believe that garbage.

Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants Free NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants (-7) Free NFL Pick: I think one of the best teams in football will rebound against a one-dimensional Arizona team. I think the Giants pass rushers will pin their ears back and get to Warner a handful of times – everybody knows, if you can get to Kurt you can take down the Cardinals. People look at last week’s game against the Hawks and have to see a 27-3 game that Arizona dominated, but in reality the Hawks just sucked offensively. It was pressure, sure, but the Cardinals will have to bring more guys if they want to penetrate that offensive line in New York. That will open up big plays for Eli, and as much as I’ve been on the guy over the past few seasons, calling him overrated among other things, he looks like a Top 10 QB in the league these days, and his confidence and will to win has me appreciating him a lot more, even though he has a gooey saddest boy face on the sidelines. No running game against the Giants spells trouble, Justin Tuck and company spell’s sack city.

New York Jets V Oakland Raiders Free Football Pick

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New York Jets (-5.5) @ Oakland Raiders Football Pick: The Oakland Raiders threw a wrench into everybody’s well laid out plans boasting them as one of the NFL’s worst teams when they upset the heavily favored Philadelphia Eagles last week. Now it was nearly as much the Eagles’ fault as it was the Raiders, but when a team wins they need to get some credit. The Eagles decision to forget the run and rely almost exclusively on the pass got in their way of victory last Sunday, and needless to say, that wasn’t the first time. But who benefitted? The Raiders. They brought lots of pressure defensively, and despite good yard per carry averages from Brian Westbrook, the limited number of carries limited the damage. But now Oakland comes off that huge high to play a Jets team coming off their 3rd straight loss. Yeah, I like the Jets chances. Unlike the Eagles, the Jets won’t forget the run, in fact, I think they’ll rely more heavily on it than any game this season. The pressure won’t be on Mark Sanchez’s arm, but the offensive line and a talented running back group. That should spell certain doom for a Raiders team looking to make it two wins in a row. The line coming down from 7.5 to 5.5 has me going with the Jets with some good confidence.

Atlanta Falcons vs Dallas Cowboys Free Football Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys Free Pick: The Cowboys have allowed #1 receiving options to run free most of the season, that doesn’t bode well for their chances at beating up on the Falcons. With Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White getting open and picking apart the Cowboys secondary, I don’t think the Cowboys’ ability to stop the run will have much to say about the outcome of this game. Plus, I get the feeling that the Falcons can run the ball on anyone if they really set their minds to it. But Matt Ryan should find open spaces, despite big names in Dallas’s secondary, and a couple great defensive line players, the pressure hasn’t been there this season, and thus opposing quarterbacks have had lots of time to throw the ball. If Matt gets time, his receivers will get open. Thinking that will happen, I like their chances to cover against the Boys.

Chicago Bears vs Cincinnati Bengals Free Sports Pick

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Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1): The Bengals, favored at home, against a mediocre NFC team – yeah, I like my chances. Now, the Bears shot themselves in the foot all week long against the Broncos, and the game was still very close – but that doesn’t mean it’s going to carry over here. The Bengals also have a very good defense, a secondary that preys on mistakes by opposing quarterbacks, often baiting them into poor throws. It’s also a defense that rarely breaks completely. The Bengals have given up 21 points or more just twice this season, making offenses work for their touchdowns is a big reason they are 4-2. I know Jay Cutler has a rocket cannon arm, but the Bears will once again be limited to their passing game as the Bengals have the ability to shut down a Bears run game that has been weak all season long. Cedric Benson will have something to prove in this game, and I think he’ll get his teammates to climb on his back for this victory. He’s been running angry so far this season, and I think he’s been looking forward to this match-up for a long time. The Bengals are good, they’ve had some late comebacks, but they aren’t flukey, they are a good value bet at home against the Bears.

New Orleans Saints V Miami Dolphins Free NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins Free Pick: I really want to take the Dolphins here. I know the public is going to be jocking the Saints like nobody’s business, and Vegas is on pace to hit a few like that coming up. But I can’t buy enough into the Dolphins in the match-up. Why? The Saints have been too good against the run, and more importantly, too good running the ball. That’s right, you heard me. Lost in Drew Brees’s amazing season thus far is the glue that’s truly making this team great, the running back by committee approach. While Drew has been on fire, people forget to realize that this rushing attack has out-rushed every single opponent they’ve gone up against this season. That means two things, the offensive line has been dominant, and also, the defensive front has been stellar. You don’t out-rush every single opponent unless you can stop the run when you’re not on the field. That single aspect of this Saints defense makes me think the Wildcat might have met their match. I’d love to see the upset here, I just don’t think it will happen.