Tag Archives: Philadelphia Eagles

Free NFL Playoff Picks: Conference Championships

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While many love the Super Bowl and all they hype it brings – and others love the 4 game format of Week 2’s NFL Playoffs – the Conference Championships are my absolute favorite time of the year in the NFL. Don’t take that as to mean that I have the perfect drop on games in Week 3 of the NFL Playoffs, but take it from me, there is no better time to sit down and watch football then AFC/NFC Championship Sunday. There are 2 games instead of 1, and while the Super Bowl often disappoints or is a blowout (though not recently) – these games are often tight and full of fireworks. Plus, there’s something about the right to go to the Super Bowl – that’s what these guys are fighting for. That’s the difference between Week 2 and Week 3 – Week 3’s winners face off in the final game – so 4 teams are playing for the Super Bowl – just one win away. It’s as good as it gets. Anyway, that’s enough about that – I rocked it up last week, finishing a Giants win away from a perfect week. But 3-1 will have to do as my playoff record moves to 5-3 overall. Here are my picks for this Sunday’s NFL action.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have been awesome. They beat a very good Atlanta Falcons team that everybody (including myself) thought would oust Arizona from post-season play. Then the Cardinals walked into Carolina, where the over-hyped and overrated Panthers hadn’t lost a game all season long, and Arizona won easily in a landslide over the Panthers. Now Arizona hosts the Eagles as the two worst records in the NFC Playoffs face-off for a chance to meet the AFC’s best in the Super Bowl. Brilliant. The Eagles ousted the run-heavy Vikings in an ugly game. Then they stepped onto New York’s home-field for the second time this season and made it two of two against the defending champs, this game meaning more than the last. And now they are headed to Arizona trying for their 3rd straight road playoff win in as many chances. I have to admit, I didn’t think either of these teams would make it past Week 1. And I also have to admit, I think the road team wins again on Sunday. The Eagles haven’t had much trouble with teams that don’t run effectively, and I don’t think Arizona will do much running against the Eagles. With a very good secondary that has really come together, Philadelphia feasts on drop back passers and they make plays on balls in the air. Edge has been better and Hightower has some power and speed, but the Eagles won’t have much to worry about in the run department from the Cardinals, and that gives this game to Philly.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5): Unlike the first game on Sunday, these are the two teams I expected to be around this late. I liked Baltimore to trounce the Dolphins (and they did) and I liked them to pull out a tight one against the Titans (and they did). I also liked the Steelers to dominate the Chargers (and if they did anything, they dominated). So if you can add, “One and one and one is three” I’m feeling pretty smart if you know what I mean! Okay, enough butchering great music – back to business. If you’re one of my trusty followers, you know exactly how I feel about betting against teams that should have lost last week and won. I love to go against those clubs. The Ravens are a prime example of that. If it weren’t for some freak fumbles, a missed field goal, and a poorly thrown pick in the red-zone, the Titans would have taken this game easily. I know the Ravens are a turnover causing group – but Tennessee played a majority of the game in Baltimore’s territory. The leading passer was Kerry Collins, – he had 281 yards to Flacco’s 161. The leading rusher was Chris Johnson (and he only played for 2 quarters) with 72 yards, and LenDale White’s 45 yards was only 5 yards less than Baltimore’s entire rushing output on Sunday. The Ravens found a way to win – they obviously have the will to do so, but it will catch up with them this week. They’ve played 17 straight weeks heading into this weekend’s contest. The Steelers have had the benefit of two bye weeks during that time. The Steelers defense is at least as good as Baltimore’s group, they are more fresh, playing at home, and privy to a better offense to help them out. I like the Steelers in this one, despite the big spread.

Good luck this week my loyal readers! And Enjoy the BEST SUNDAY IN FOOTBALL!

Free NFL Playoff Picks: Week 2

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Alright, Week 1 was a push, but being the stubborn personality that I am, I still think I had the right side on the Eagles/Vikings game. Both teams played like garbage, and the score should have been tighter. Basically I’m saying that they played evenly terrible. As for the Falcons, I don’t know, Matt Ryan played great in the first half but didn’t get much help from his offensive mates, and thus they squandered some opportunities to get points. That hurt some confidence and there it was. Also, Arizona had Atlanta’s snap on key, and their jump off the ball, more than any other reason, was why Atlanta’s rushing game was held down. I honestly think that if the Cards didn’t have that hint, it would be Atlanta headed to round two. But, it is what it is, and Arizona finishes as the right side there. But on to Week 2! Gotta get back in the swing of things.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Tennessee Titans: That whole “a can’t believe we’re not heavily favored, we’re the #1 seed in the league” garbage can only work so many times. Tennessee wasted that excitement a couple times earlier this year. Another thing that has me riding Baltimore’s hot streak into an upset here is the fact that it’s really hard to beat a good team twice in the same season. One more thing you ask? Well, these teams are eerily similar in talent and game plan. Both run the ball a lot. Neither has a prolific passer. One QB hasn’t reached his prime and one is past his prime, but both are about the same level. Both play great defense and bring the physical nature of football to another level. Both have solid kicking games and both won their fair share of close games. I would say Tennessee’s rushing game (and offense) is a little better than Baltimore’s, but I would say the Ravens have a little bit better defense. But neither difference is that great. Both teams have mediocre passing attacks with solid running games and good defenses. But Baltimore just has that playoff winning swagger – and while I know that no rookie quarterback has won two playoff games in his rookie season, I think records are meant to be broken, and that will happen this week in Tennessee.

Arizona Cardinals (+10) @ Carolina Panthers: I think Carolina wins this game, but 10 is too much, especially for a Carolina team that is a little overrated in my opinion, and an Arizona team that showed some defensive excitement last week. Earlier in the year, Arizona was tough to run against. They got after the run and the quarterback, and while they gave up big plays, the didn’t give away free rushing yards. If they come out like that, and in their biggest game in a million years – I think they will, they will be close in this game. They are a tough match-up for the Panthers, even in Carolina where the Panthers have yet to lose a game this season. Double digits is just too much for me. Carolina may have won 4 of their last 5, 3 out of 4 were a play away from a different outcome. They barely snuck by New Orleans in Week 17, lost to the Giants late in Week 16, beat the Broncos (but who didn’t down the stretch), rushed for a gazillion yards against Tampa Bay, but still had to convert a late 3rd and 5 to keep Tampa’s offense off the field in a game that was a touchdown away, and they barely beat the Packers after losing to the Falcons 28-45 in Atlanta and playing an amazingly tight one against the 0-16 Lions, same goes for their two game prior to that against the Raiders and these Cardinals. I’m not saying they are a bad team, but 10 point favorites in the playoffs? I don’t think that has any value at all. I’ll take the Cards.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-4): Just wait, Andy Reid will let Eagle backers down with poor play calling sooner or later, I’ll bet sooner. The Eagles will stop running, start throwing three yard stop patterns on 2nd and 10 and 3rd and 7, and that’s when the frustration on blogs and message boards will hit an all time high. Nobody is playing better than the Eagles right now, and why not, look at all that talent on that team. Young and veteran players alike, new Eagles and old Eagles – this team certainly has the talent to make an unlikely trip to the Big Show. But, that play calling – the “not to lose” attitude that seems to ward off momentum like the Bills and Super Bowl Trophies – that will get the Eagles in the end. The Giants have already lost once to the Eagles, and got a tight win earlier in the year as well – these teams know each other, that’s for sure. But Brandon Jacobs seems fully healthy and back, and he’s a battering ram weapon that New York didn’t have last time these two went at it – not in full health anyway – but even then, his 10 carries for 52 yards might have been a precursor of what is to come when he gets 20 or more totes this weekend. This is a tough one for me, because the Eagles are so up and down and this game is huge. But the Giants aren’t so up and down, they are just flat out good and play to win the game every time out. I’ll take my chances with them.

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5): I feel as good about this game as I did about the Ravens last week – I think the Steelers cover easily, winning by double digits. Now, that’s not their style, I understand – but that’s the way I see it. This same Steelers team came in and stomped the Chargers in Pittsburgh earlier this year – well, physically stomped them anyway, the score was an improbable 11-10 and a Charger cover for sure. But it was an unlikely set of circumstances that finished with the Steelers needing a late field goal to win it. LT was held to 57 yards on 18 carries while the highest rated quarterback this season, Philip Rivers, was eaten up by Pittsburgh’s defense, completing 15 of 26 tosses for just 159 yards 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions; easily his worst game of the season. On the other hand, Willie Parker had 115 rushing yards, and Big Ben threw for over 300 yards as well. The Steelers just couldn’t get it in the end zone. I doubt it if the same story is played out this week. Big Ben, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and a defense full of absolute beasts that have been here before – I give them the advantage in this one, and advantage I don’t see them wasting against an inferior Chargers team.

One for Wednesday, Three for Thursday, Five for Friday too

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Hoorays for the Day!!!

1. Sammy Morris as a Week 14 pick-up that will help multiple fantasy owners.

2. Scarlet Johanson.

3. Dominik Hixon’s value doubling in one idiotic second.

4. A perfect example about to be set – high paid receivers don’t make teams great.

5. Dustin Keller’s prompt rise to must-start.

6. Victoria Secret fashion show being televised in prime time.

I could care less, but since I don’t, I’ll share these anyway…

1. Willis McGahee could play this weekend.

2. MTV (except for Rob and Big and Jackass reruns)

3. Joseph Addai goes up against a bad defense that doesn’t tackle well- great.

4. The Lions get the #1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft.

5. Skinny Jeans, on anybody – I don’t care, they aren’t flattering. Okay, maybe on Scarlet.

Booooos and Hisses!!!

1. Mayor’s that “want to throw the book” and say it publicly. If you want to throw books, don’t be a damn mayor you idiot – own a used book stoor.

2. Rich people owning guns without permits.

3. Food poisoning, wasps, and stale chips.

4. Getting shot in the leg, shooting someone else in the leg, even worse yet – shooting yourself in the leg.

5. Picking up Darren McFadden for the stretch run.

6. Expecting Ronnie Brown to get 20 carries.

7. Steven Jackson’s health versus his pay check.

8. Walking with scissors… RUN!!! RUN!!!

9. Owning Dallas Cowboys during fantasy playoffs.

10. Predicting Philadelphia Eagle outputs.

11. Helping your buddy out – and having that buddy be Plaxico Burress. Antonio, I would have done the same thing buddy – tough deck of cards you had to play there.

Free NFL Picks: Week 10

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I must say, getting 9 in week 9 makes me happy, and anywhere after Week 8, that same kind of deal would be well worth my time – 7 in 7, 6 wins in 6, etc, those aren’t too exciting and would probably have you guys going against me in no time. But this week is Week 10, and how better to follow up my Week 9 mirror than to bust out double digits in Week 10, the last bye riddled week of the season… I’ll take more than 10, certainly, but with 10-4 as my aim, we’ll see if I can’t manage another good week going forward.

Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns (-3): The Browns got all antsy thinking they were going to win last week, got scared like a deer in headlights, and all of a sudden their girdles were soiled and the team manager had a big laundry mess to clean up. But that’s okay, because they played tough football for much of the game, kind of like they’ve done for much of the year. I know wins and losses are a pretty big deal in sports, but they really shouldn’t be for a gambler. Not a sports gambler anyway – because here, you don’t need your team to win to actually win, and if your team wins, you might still lose. Like Gloria from “White Men Can’t Jump” once said, “Sometimes when you win, you really lose, and sometimes when you lose, you really win, and sometimes you don’t win or lose but you tie” or something like that. Anyway, what I’m getting at here is that Cleveland is 3-5 but they are 5-3 ATS, and why is that? Because they play hard. And against Denver, playing hard translates into covering spreads, well pretty much anything against Denver translates into covering spreads. If you’re worried about the quarterbacking change, I wouldn’t be – Derek Anderson’s completion deficiencies won’t be there with Quinn, and thus the tempo of the game should move much nicer for Cleveland. Better comp percentages get receivers more involved and it gives running backs more carries, and everything is happier. I think Quinn gives this Browns team a boost, or at least enough zip to take advantage of one of the league’s worst defenses. Denver has yet to win on the road (outside of Week 1 in Oakland, and lets be honest, any team run by Al Davis doesn’t count towards anything worthy of acknowledgement).

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) @ Detroit Lions: I’m taking the Jaguars as a touchdown favorite (or a touchdown gets me the win) because Detroit has played better than they are over the last few weeks, and the Jaguars have played like garbage during that time. Detroit has been bad at home, and why not? everyone watching their home games thinks they are going to lose before the opening kickoff, that’s not a home field advantage, that’s a kick in the goat. Jacksonville has been impossible to figure out, but you have to think that they get it together one of these weeks, I’m thinking one of these weeks is this week. Some other things I like on Jacksonville’s side – they seem to play well against teams with less than solid rushing attacks, and despite Kevin Smith’s solid yards per carry and decent play of late, you can definitely lump the Lions in with the “bad running game” crowd. Indy, Denver, and Houston – all can pass pretty well, and all use the run to set up the pass, but they are definitely pass reliant teams – the Jags got wins in against all three. The one thing I like about the Lions, the thing keeping me from betting some big bucks on this game; Detroit has yet to win one. Every week it gets harder to beat a team that hasn’t won a game. Nobody wants to lose them all, nobody wants to be that team – that can play a roll for sure. Still, my numbers favor the Jags in Detroit – so I’ll make them my pick here.

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Chicago Bears: Tennessee on the road against a tough Chicago team, sure, looks like it could be their first loss. And then you see that Orton is out for a month and Sexy Rexy is the guy going up against one of the toughest defenses in football. Oh, and the Titans can run on the Bears because the Bears defense isn’t quite as gnarly as you think they are – aside from the Colts Week 1 shut down, and the first meeting with the Lions, the Bears have given up at least 20 points every other game of the season. I see this one as a sure thing Titans win as the Bears won’t score 20 against Tennessee.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-3.5): I know this isn’t Tom Brady’s Patriots, and these aren’t J.P. Losman’s Bills, but New England hasn’t lost to Buffalo since 2003 – What was going on in 2003 last time Buffalo got a W against New England? Well, Tara Reid might have been considered good looking, Matt Ryan was playing high school football somewhere, and this great country was just about to give President George W. Bush one more run and complete destruction… That’s a while ago. If you do the math, carry the three, that’s 9 straight wins for the Pats. But Buffalo is better this year, no doubt bout that, so I’ll look for some more conclusive evidence one way or another. The Pats have one loss at home this year, to Miami in the day Ronnie Brown ruled the earth, but I’m not ever sold based solely on homefield business. I need some more. I pointed out last week that New England plays pretty well against teams that do one thing well (either pass or run), but the Bills seem to do both things with some success, so I have no push there. The Patriots should have won last week against the Colts, but a couple dropped passes (Gaffney’s for sure) and that ultimate dump penalty late (thank you Dave Thomas, now get back to pimping Wendy) gave the game to the Colts. I still think Matt Cassel is playing good enough football, and the Bills are coming back to reality a bit. Buffalo’s only “good” win came against a 3-5 San Diego team. That’s right, 5 wins, one of them at home against San Diego – the other four against St. Louis, Seattle, Oakland, and Jacksonville. You sold on the Bills on the road against a Patriots team that just lost a game they should have won? Me neither. I’ll take the Pats.

Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) @ Houston Texans: This is a game I don’t like. Don’t bet your savings on this, please. But if you are looking for a lean, I’m taking the Ravens because they have yet to lose to anybody bad, or mediocre (which is what I think the Texans are). I do think the Ravens have a little trouble with a good passing attack. Their five wins all come against teams that don’t throw the ball real well, Cleveland (twice) and the second time it took some 4th quarter heroics, Oakland (come on, right?), Miami (solid but not a great passing team by any means), and Cincinnati – yes, the Bungles. Indy, Pittsburgh, and a tough loss to Tennessee by three points. The thing is, they haven’t really beaten anybody good, but they haven’t lost to anybody that isn’t “good”. They are 5-3 and basically beat the teams they are equal to or better than, and lose to teams they aren’t (Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Indy). This one just gets really close to me. I like to think the Ravens will have some trouble with Sage Rosenfels. The guy is legit, the best back-up in the league, and if the Texans lose anything with Schaub out, it’s very little. I think Sage gives the Texans a little boost – but I don’t know if it makes them good enough to take down Baltimore. This game is a toss up to me, one of the few 50-50’s I see. So I’m taking the point and the better defense – that’s the best I can do.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+1): Atlanta played great football last week and absolutely controlled the clock in Oakland. This week they go back home where they have yet to lose a football game all year long. On the other hand, Drew Brees and company should be as healthy as they’ve been since the season started, and they are coming off a bye (giving the most accurate passer in the league two weeks to prepare for a pretty mediocre secondary) – but that only makes this game high scoring, it doesn’t give the Saints the upper hand. The Falcons still aren’t getting enough credit, and let me tell you, that’s only going to help Mike Smith get his team ready for this week’s game. I like the Falcons to continue to surprise, beating the all powerful New Orleans Saints. I said before that Atlanta is undefeated at home, well the Saints are completely defeated on the road. I can’t imagine that holds up all year, in both cases, but it’s something to look at. The Falcons have had a consistent pass attack this season, a rushing attack that exploits the bottom half of NFL defenses, and more physicality on both lines. They should be favored at home and I’m betting that way. New Orleans is solid, but they don’t scare me much. I don’t want to hear that New Orleans has won each of the last 4 meetings, or anything about the past between these teams – this is not Bobby Patrino’s Falcons team, and Mike Vick isn’t lacing them up on Sunday either. Atlanta has only lost games to good run defenses, and only on the road. Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Philadelphia – that’s it, and the Saints don’t have a defense like those guys. New Orleans also has a little trouble with solid rushing attacks – though they’ve been better against the run this year, the Panthers dominated them via the run and so did Washington back in Week 2. The Chargers lost, but LT went crazy in England against the Saints as well. Those are the odds I’m stacking up – don’t sell the Falcons short, pick them in this one.

St. Louis Rams @ New York Jets (-8): This is a tough one, because the Jets rarely seem to play well – ha. Brett and the Jets aren’t playing well lately, I don’t care if they’ve won two straight, offensively they aren’t getting it done. Thomas Jones just needs to get the ball more, that seems to be obvious. Lesses chances taken by Brett means less turnovers and more ball control by the Jets. You’d think they could take full advantage of that this week as they go up against a Rams defense that allows 156 rushing yards per game, but they haven’t done that against bad rushing defenses this year. Over the last three weeks prior to their win over Buffalo, the Jets snuck by the Bengals, lost to Oakland, and needed a last minute drive to take out the Chiefs in New York. In all three of those games, Thomas Jones didn’t get the ball enough, and Brett’s mistakes killed them. That being said, you’d have to think the Jets are realizing this, and St. Louis is really bad against the run. Thomas Jones needs to get 20 carries in this game. If he does that, they win for sure. I also have to see this from the Rams side, and they have been TERRIBLE against good run defenses. They got destroyed by Arizona last week, and the same goes for earlier games against Buffalo, the Giants, and the Eagles – all of which shut down the run really well. Steven Jackson is hurting, and while he did play last week, he just didn’t look right. The Jets are very good against the run. Lets put it this way, Steven Jackson goes into a hole, Kris Jenkins is there waiting – I have my money on Big Kris.

Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins (-9): Boy, the Hawks are bad, but are they 9 point dogs in Miami bad? That’s the big question I have to answer here – so here goes the discovering. I know Seattle got tormented by Donovan and the Eagles last week, but I’m not so sure Chad and the Dolphins have the offensive prowess that the Eagles bring to the table week in and week out. The Dolphins don’t have many consistencies in wins and losses, not that I can see anyway. They seem to struggle against strong run defenses, the Jets in Week 1, the Cardinals in Week 2, and the Ravens in Week 7 – but they took down Buffalo two weeks ago, so it’s not an always thing. The Hawks aren’t a good run defense, but they aren’t bad either. Despite losing the time of possession battle in almost every single game they’ve played so far this year (winning that only once, against the Rams in Week 3 and being destroyed almost every other week) the Hawks don’t give up a great YPC average on the ground. They held Brian Westbrook to just 60 yards on 20 carries, and held the Eagles to 72 rushing yards on 28 totes. Then again, I doubt if the Hawks will be able to run against Miami, as the Dolphins allow less than 90 yards on the ground per game. The Hawks don’t have a potent pass rush without Kerney rushing the quarterback, and it’s a big question if he’ll play. Lofa didn’t play last week, and is still hurting (obviously). This list of injuries is endless for the Hawks, and they are all important guys. Linemen, starting quarterback, defensive MVP from a year ago, big play receivers – I just don’t think the Hawks can win against a physical team. Miami can do everything pretty well. Seneca Wallace is okay, but he hasn’t been able to test defenses. Take away his 90 yarder to Koren Robinson on a broken play to start the game, he only has 70 yards passing on Sunday against Philly. Two short throws to his FB against the 49ers last week go for 100+ yards, without those he has just 120 yards passing with no touchdowns. I like the kid, but with this injury riddled offense, he’s a sitting duck out there, and Miami’s toughness up front will take advantage. The Hawks also fly across the country to play at 10 am their time. I have to take the Dolphins here.

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: I just think Green Bay is much better than Minnesota – but is it that simple? Good question. Probably not, so here’s some stuff to back up my pick. In their last meeting (earlier this year), the Vikings needed thirteen 4th quarter points to make this game respectable. I know that in Green Bay’s 4 losses, 3 come against pretty solid run defenses (Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee last week) – but Green Bay has been running better and better of late, and I think they can do some work against the Vikings run defense. Green Bay has played solid football all year, really. They are 4-4, but they’ve played good football. You’d think Aaron Rodgers would absolutely pick apart the Vikings secondary. They may have played better last week, the Vikings, but they still gave up 350+ yards of passing offense to the Texans. The Packers are definitely still hurting (actually hurting, injuries and such), but they are getting healthier. Ryan Grant is looking more and more like the guy that crushed defenses late last season, and some defensive backs that have been playing through injuries are getting healthier. The Vikings will still be able to run at home against Green Bay, but I don’t think it will be enough to take out the Packers. The Vikings have a lot of trouble against teams that can throw – the Packers can definitely wing it. Another thing, don’t be fooled by the Vikings 3-1 home record – Detroit and Houston aren’t great wins, and the Vikings are a perfect defensive match-up to stop the Panthers. Those are their 3 home wins. Green Bay is almost made to beat the Vikes.

Carolina Panthers (-9) @ Oakland Raiders: I know 9 is a lot to give, especially on the road, but you’ve heard me say it before, and I firmly believe that if the Panthers can run the ball (meaning if they are playing against a mediocre to poor run defense) they are one of the best teams in football. They can run with ease against Oakland. It may be nine, and the Raiders are coming off one of the worst football performances since last week’s WSU Cougar game, but I like the Panthers a lot here. I like them before the Raiders were held to basically nothing against a porous Atlanta defense, and I still like the Panthers, even at this spread that’s slightly inflated.

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers: This game is still off everywhere, and I don’t know which way I’d go because the spread is pretty important. I’ve seen things like -3 and -7 both for Pittsburgh. Honestly, I see the Steelers winning, running the ball about 60% of the time, maybe more, and just pounding the Colts. Plus, there is no statistical defense better than Pittsburgh right now, and it’s not all stats either. If you’ve watched these guys, you see a defense that just doesn’t give up anything. Less than 3 yards per carry, 9 passing and rushing touchdowns combined, more sacks than anyone in the league. For a Colts team that has struggled to keep Manning as clean as usual, you’d think the Steelers are poised to take this one. At -3 I’d take the Steelers – at -7 I’m not so sure. I’m not counting this game this week, still no odds and it’s Friday – but I just wanted to let you guys know what I was thinking in case you needed some input. Good luck.

Kansas City Chiefs (+15) @ San Diego Chargers: Tyler Thigpen? I have to take the Chiefs getting more than two touchdowns against a Charger team that has one win by more than 14 all season long. The Chiefs are bad, but they aren’t Oakland bad… Regardless of talent, these teams always play each other tough, it’s just the way it is. In fact, not one game in the last 10 meetings has the winner won by more than two touchdowns. Not once. The Chiefs have played better football at home this season (which is the norm for them over the years) while getting blown out in two of their three road games, but this game is always close. And the Chiefs have a little bit of a youth movement that is looking good over the last couple weeks. I see a little confidence from them at least – there’s no doubt about that. San Diego hasn’t done much for me, and defensively they just aren’t strong. They have a new defensive coordinator, and he’s solid, but it will be interesting to see if he can get it done right off the bat. They play well at times, and go 3-5 at others – the Chargers are tough to read. I know they need this win, and they should be playing this game like their season depends on it, because it means a lot, but I think Thigpen and the Chiefs offense does enough to stay within two scores. So I’ll be going with the Chiefs this week.

New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles:  A big Sunday Nighter… Both teams are coming off three straight wins, and even I’m starting to become a believe in the New York Football Giants. (I just threw up a little bit just thinking about that). Both teams have a couple of easy wins sandwiched around a tough game they pulled out. Both teams have beaten Pittsburgh this year, and while the Eagles have three losses (Washington, Chicago, Dallas) – the Giants have just one (Cleveland). The Eagles three losses all come by less than a touchdown. The Browns killed the Giants on Monday Night Football a few weeks ago. I’m hoping with all my might that the Eagles come out victorious in this one, but there’s one big thing moving me toward the Giants, and it’s not defensive pressure. It’s that run game in New York. The Giants have run on everyone – let me clear that up a bit, everyone except Pittsburgh. Even in their big loss to Cleveland, the Giants rushed for 181 yards. In the Eagles three losses, two of them came to teams that ran the ball well against their aggressive defense. Washington gave the ball to Clinton Portis and watched him torch the Eagles, and it was Marion Barber (though he only rushed for 61 yards) that gave the Cowboys enough of a threat to sneak out a win over Philly. The Eagles are very good, no doubt about that, but if the Giants can run the ball, the Eagles blitzing schemes get neutralized a bit – that should give New York the edge. And there’s always Plaxico Burress. Plax has torched the Eagles many a time, and he’s gotten the better of Asante Samuel as well – the Eagles will have their eye on the big wideout, but that might not matter.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-9): Arizona hasn’t lost to a bad team this year, and they’ve beaten some pretty solid teams. They shut the run down well. San Francisco is coming off a bye, and there is a good chance that they come out very motivated after an interesting couple weeks since the beginning of Mike Singletary (my hero). I also think Shaun Hill gives the Niners a better chance to win. He’s more accurate and he’s not as risky, something San Francisco really needs. Still, the Cardinals are one of the best teams in the NFC. They have a more potent rushing attack with Tim Hightower’s youthful exuberance toting the rock, and they have a passing attack that can put points up on anyone. The more they run against the Niners, the better. I hate to roll with the public here, but I can’t be on San Francisco with so many questions in the air. I’m making my wager small enough to be tricked and not lose sleep, but I also don’t want to trick myself into a silly wager. Take the good team against the bad team – Arizona has four double digit wins so far this season – San Francisco has 5 double digit losses. Take that for what it’s worth, but the Cardinals by 10 looks good enough to me.

Free NFL Picks: Week 9

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Week 8 gave me one of my few losing records of the year, but there were some crazy things that went down to get me in the gotcha. This week there are some games I fancy, and some I am just barely leaning one way or the other. Like always, I’ll let you know. 

New York Jets (+6) @ Buffalo Bills: This is an interesting one. The Bills haven’t won a game against a good run defense yet this year. Seriously, Arizona and Miami are both solid run defenses – the Bills have two losses, one loss in Miami, one loss in Arizona. They are undefeated at home this season, against the spread as well. The Jets gave the ball to the Chiefs numerous times and still came out on top last week, but they were playing the Chiefs. I understand that the only road win New York has this year was in Miami in Week 1, and they got beat by Oakland last time they went traveling (gag reflex there). All that being said, I like that the Jets can stop the run (4th in the league with just over 80 yards given up per game) – and I like how that corilates with the trouble Buffalo has had with defenses that make running tough sledding. So, I’ll take the Jets and all 6 of those points in this divisional “HUGE” game. 

Detroit Lions (+14) @ Chicago Bears: The Lions have played better on the road than at home, they are getting 14 points at 5 Dimes. Orlovsky has proven to be a decent option, and Calvin Johnson is borderline unguardable. I like the Bears to win this game, and bring the Lions to 0-8 during the first half of the season (probably not winning 10 games like Jon Kitna says, just my observation, but who knows). However, I do like Detroit to play better than a two touchdown dog to a Bears team that definitely has flaws on either side of the ball. The Bears should no be favored by two scores against anyone in the league. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Ryan Fitzpatrick complete’s just about 60% of his passes, he has 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, he is heading up a team that doesn’t believe in him, and it’s basically crushing news every time he comes onto the field because it’s a reminder that Carson is still out with an arm ouchy. Sounds like a recipe for success. On the other hand, the Jags just lost to the freaking Browns, at home, in a game that they needed to win. They are now 3-4, tied with the Colts and Texans and 4 games back of the Titans in their own division. They need to get things straight right away. Jacksonville has beaten the Bengals in 9 out of the 10 times these two teams have played since 1998. The Jags are 7-2-1 ATS over that time period. I’m not one for history calling the shots, but there’s lots of things working against the Bengals here, not to mention the Jags just lost a big game at home, and they are 2-1 on the road this season with wins in Denver and Indianapolis. Yeah, I like the Jaguars by 10 in this one for a small wager. 

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (PK): I don’t know what to think about Cleveland except I think they are just about as good as the Ravens, they are at home, they will likely be a .500 team this year, and this game would split the season series with Baltimore. I like all those things working in my favor here, and I see both teams being 4-4 after Week 9’s action. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs can’t run and they only put up a reasonable fight if teams hand them turnovers like free cans of spam at the light house mission. Jeff Garcia won’t be doing that this week in KC, especially not after getting beat by a hapless Dallas team. I expect a lot of running game action this time around, and that’s not coming from KC. Tyler Thigpen’s chances of building off last week’s big game look really bad, as the Bucs will key in on the young quarterback. Tampa is a lot better than they were last week and the Chiefs are a lot worse – in that match-up I’ll always take the Bucs side. 

Houston Texans (+5) @ Minnesota Vikings: Hmmm… Really good passing offense versus a really bad secondary. Vikings are coming off a bye week going head to head at home against the Texans team that is winners of three straight… But all home games. The Texans are Ofer on the road this season, and that’s not abnormal for the, they are historically a brutal road team. Minnesota hasn’t been playing well at all. They beat the Lions because of a TERRIBLE pass interference call. They beat the New Orleans Saints some how some way, I watched that game and I still can’t figure it out. It seemed like the Saints hammered the Vikes. They gave up 48 points (a lot via the secondary and such) to the Bears and lost that game. They’ve basically played like poo in their last four games are are 2-2 in those contests – so that’s one thing they have going for themselves. In the end, I think it’s Dunta Robinson’s recent return that pays dividends for the Texans in their first road win of the year, a big upset. With another corner that can lock down defenders, the Texans can use their safeties to help against the run, and that should be just enough for them to cover. 

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ St. Louis Rams: The Cardinals are a bad road team. They have been for a long time, and that trend doesn’t seem to be changing much this season in terms of their win/loss record (1-3). However, you have to consider their competition and how they’ve played on the road as well, because close losses to good teams need to look better than close wins against bad teams (at least to the bettor). The Cardinals lost road games to Washington, the Jets, and the Carolina Panthers last week. Except for the offensive blow-up by Brett Favre and the Jets (6 TDs for the old man), the Cards have played tight with their solid opponents, losing by a touchdown in Washington and by just 4 in Carolina (covering the spread last week). The Rams, on the other hand, have to be considered a new team since Jim Haslet took over because they’ve played much different. They ousted the Redskins in Washington, then slapped around a injury decimated Cowboys team two weeks ago at home. Last week they lost in New England, but without Steven Jackson, and the game was tight late (they covered). Still, I think the Cardinals are that much better than the Rams, and while Arizona is used to losing and falling apart when it matters most, I have to believe that they win this week in St. Louis. At -2.5, a field goal win still gets me a W, and thus I’ll be making a small play on the favored road Cardinals here. 

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) @ Tennessee Titans: I would stay away from this line. That’s my suggestion. That being said, I like the Titans by 3 in this one. Their defense is too good, but Aaron Rodgers has one heck of a cannon, and that will test the Titans secondary. Green Bay hasn’t been able to run all year, their yards per carry is gross, and the Titans won’t help that stat improve. Kerry Collins doesn’t do enough to test the Packers secondary woes, but Green Bay’s run defense is basically piss this season. The Titans run with passion and efficiency. And they are absolutely committed to the run as well. The Packers are coming off a bye, and a first hand look at how the Titans secondary can be attacked, as Manning did a nice job in the first half last last Monday Night. There’s lots of things working every which way in this one, and the fact that Tennessee is 7-0 doesn’t help their cause in my book either. Nobody goes undefeated, remember that. The Titans are coming off a little bit of a short week, they are heavily favored, and they have yet to lose. Am I saying Green Bay pulls the upset? No, but there’s a chance. This is just a tough one for me, for the obvious reasons that I listed. Despite the records (4-3 to 7-0) I think these teams are fairly close in ability. I’m taking the Packers here, but you have my advice on betting this game. 

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos: The Denver secondary was bad with Champ Bailey locking down one side, I can’t imagine how pathetic they’ll be without him for the next 6 weeks. They can’t put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, can’t even get close to stopping the run, and their offense relies almost solely on the passing game – which always puts a team at risk. MIami has played decent on the road, sans one bad loss to Arizona. They were up on Houston, and if it weren’t for some last minute heroics by Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub, they would have won there. They smoked New England in Week 3. Three of their losses came to great run defenses, Arizona, the Jets, and Baltimore – and believe me when I say that Denver doesn’t belong in that group. I think Denver will put up points, and it’s possible that they jump up early and leave the Dolphins trying to do too much, but I have a feeling that Miami’s run-based attack and precision passing should keep the time of possession in their favor. That might be just enough for a big upset on Sunday. 

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-8): Too much defensive pressure by the Giants will absolutely make Brad Johnson a sitting duck. The Giants are too tough against the run to allow Marion Barber much room to explode. Dallas played better defensively last week, but honestly, their offense didn’t play well enough for them to win. Dallas got some really bad calls falling in their favor, and that got them over the hump. I don’t like the Giants all that much, and unlike a lot of big names out there I don’t think they are underrated, quite the opposite. I just think that Dallas got beat last week and won the game – I never like that. I also don’t like the Cowboys offense at all right now. New York should win this one in the 24-10 range. 

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Oakland Raiders: Looking at it from way up here I see a Falcons team that is 1-3 on the road (though their tough road losses came against Philly, Carolina, and Tampa Bay – all solid squads). I see a Raider team that plays pretty well at home, beating the Jets two weeks ago, and playing really tight with San Diego before a late score put the Chargers up 10. The Falcons are 4-3, and they’ve beat some solid teams (Green Bay in Wisconsin) and Chicago two weeks ago at home, by 3 and 2 points respectively. The Raiders don’t stop the run well and don’t create many turnovers on defense. The Falcons only seem to get in trouble when their youth gets the best of them. I also like the Falcons more than the Raiders. This is a very tough one for me, but I’ll have to lean toward Atlanta. They’ve been solid when they can run, and the Raiders will let Mike Turner run. Oakland is not physical up front, and I think Matt Ryan can be effective enough to douse the Raider secondary. I’d stay away from this game, but with all things considered, it looks like Atlanta by a field goal. 

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: I know it doesn’t look like the “sharp” bet here, as just about 75% of the public is taking the Eagles, but I can’t see another side. The Seahawks got two 50 yard touchdown catches from Leonard Weaver of all people. Those were Seneca Wallace’s only touchdown passes and almost half of his total passing yardage. Seattle’s defense still doesn’t do enough to disrupt a good offense, and the Eagles (with Brian Westbrook) have one of the most efficient and mistake free units in the league. The Hawks may be without Lofa Tatupu, and that would be a huge hit. The Hawks may have killed a disfunctional 49er team last week, and no win is easy in the NFL, but I see things coming a lot tougher for the Hawks in this one. The Hawks have 2 wins, to the great 49ers last week (after losing to them once already) and to the tough and gritty St. Louis Rams prior to Haslet taking over. They’ve been destroyed by “good” teams that they’ve played. Buffalo beat them by 24, the Giants ran over them by 38, the Packers only won by 10 – but it wasn’t that close – trust me, the Bucs also won by 10 – but that also wasn’t even close. I hate going with 75% of the public, but 6.5 looks nice from my pedestal. 

New England Patriots (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: Call me nuts, but both of these teams are up and down so much that I can’t quite figure them out. New England is 5-2 and the Colts are 3-4, but they are eerily similar. Indy actually played pretty well on Monday Night, flailing like lemmings in the 4th quarter, but solid for the first three frames. New England barely took out a bottom tier St. Louis Rams team that was playing without their best player, Steven Jackson. But I see an advantage for the Patriots in Indy. Weird. The Pats have done solid work against teams that don’t have strong rushing attacks. The Chiefs, Jets, 49ers (only because Mike Martz is a tool), and Denver. Those are all wins for the Pats, and all teams that can’t find a consistent rushing attack. Their losses came to San Diego (a team you must respect on the ground) and MIami (Ronnie Brown went nuts on the Pats). Indy doesn’t have Addai, and even when they have had him, their run game has been blah this season. If the Pats can focus on one aspect, the pass or run, their defense is stronger. You know what is also weird here? Matt Cassel and Peyton Manning have disturbingly similar numbers. Matt’s 66% completion percentage is better than Manning’s 61% – Cassel gets 6.84 yards per attempt while Manning has 6.62. Cassel has thrown just 7 touchdowns to Manning’s 10, but he only has 6 picks to Manning’s 9. Cassel has a 6 point QB Rating advantage as well. Anyway, I’m not saying they’re the same guy, I’m just saying you should lay off killing Matt for his shortcomings, the kid is throwing pretty well. 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins (-1): This one is tough for me because Jason Taylor is out for sure, and the Redskins are just dealing with a lot of ailments. I actually really liked the Redskins in this one at full health. Against teams I would consider good, Dallas and Philly and maybe even Arizona and New Orleans (though I don’t consider the Saints good, but you might) the Redskins are 4-0. On the other hand, PIttsburgh’s lone good win came against, I don’t know, Jacksonville? Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Houston? I like the Texans but can hardly consider them to be “good”. The Steelers lost to both the Giants and Eagles, and the Redskins will look to make that three in a row from the NFC East. There’s lots of love on the Steeler’s side right now, but I am taking the other half in this one. Take the Skins at home.

Five for Friday

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I missed Three for Thursday, but what can you do? Heck, I missed this one too, but figured there was enough important business that went down that I should throw up 5 big ones for you to ponder before your picks and fantasy starts this Sunday. Here goes something. 

1. Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting for a Bengals team that I was looking at as a possible upset this weekend. Unfortunately that hope is squashed. There’s no way Brett Favre lets Ryan Fitzpatrick beat his Jets this weekend. That said, I think Thomas Jones becomes an even better bet as a start in Week 6. He’ll get over 20 carries for sure, as the Jets will go more to a “don’t lose” way of offense. With Fitz starting I still think Housh and Chad Johnson are decent starts. I expect them to be behind and throwing more often than not. A bad turnover day through the air can still be quite beneficial for starting receivers on that team. 

2. Matt Hasselbeck is out this week. He’s a real penguin clubber. But don’t be crushed quite yet – Julius Jones owners get ready for another 20 carries, and Seneca Wallace is a solid starting option in this league, so that opens up some doors for owners looking at a bye week fix randomly. But I wouldn’t be betting on the Hawks here. Leave them alone as a -2.5 bet please. They’ll play better defensively and they’ll keep going on offense. I like the Pack! 

3. With Brian Westbrook out for the Eagles I actually really like Correll Buckhalter. San Francisco has played better defensively this season but they aren’t a top notch group yet, and while I will never like the Eagles’ rushing schemes, CB runs hard and should be good for close to 80 yards against the Niners. Eagle receivers are a better bet too. I like LJ Smith as a guy you can likely pick up off waivers and DeSean Jackson and Hank Baskett both look like they can be counted on for some fantasy points. 

4. I like me some Jason Campbell against the Rams. I think St. Louis will do everything they can to make Jason be the one beating them this weekend, and I think he’ll do exactly that. Santana Moss should have a big game and I actually like Randel El to have his highest yardage output of the season. As far as the Rams??? Your guess is as good as mine. I like Tory Holt to have a nice day, but that’s about it. 

5. Off of fantasy football for a second, I have a couple fantasy basketball sleepers for you lovely readers. Give me some Al Thornton, David Lee, Carlos Vilenueva, Jose Calderon and I’ll go win me a championship. All four of those guys will vastly outproduce their draft slot and should have huge years. David Lee is my favorite of that bunch, but Calderon is going to be special with full starter’s minutes. Dream big!

NFL Free Picks: Week 6

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I had a solid week in Week 5, pulling 3 more games up on the season while going 8-5-1. This week I’m looking for another winning week to keep my game going. Here’s what I like and the other ones I have to pick. The road teams seem to be getting most of my attention this week, while dogs and favorites are split right down the middle. Enjoy the show.

Baltimore Ravens (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts: I can’t see value in the Colts right now. I don’t love Baltimore and I think Peyton has played well against them in the past, but right now I think a tough Ravens running game will give an inconsistent Colts team trouble, even if the Ravens can’t pass real well with Flacco running the show. I expect Addai to get close to nothing and Willis McGahee to have his best game of the year. Picking against the Colts always makes me worry a bit, but this seems like pretty solid value.

Cincinnati Bengals (+6) @ New York Jets: I hate taking the Bengals, really, I do. I just think they are better than their 0-5 record and it has to turn around somewhere. I’m not dying in love with this game, but +6 for a Bengals team that’s played a lot of close games recently, I like that more than taking a Jets team that hadn’t really impressed me before two weeks ago against Arizona.

Carolina Panthers (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I’ve always liked the Panthers as a dog, and even though I buy Tampa Bay as an underrated team, and probably see some value with them at home in this one, my gut is telling me to go with the Panthers – so, screw a bunch of value, I’m going Carolina Blue on this one.

Chicago Bears (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: Am I living on the edge here? Picking against the Falcons once again? I know they’ve been killing me a few times this year, but I think Forte is too much of a force for the Falcons defensive front and I like what Orton has been doing through the air. I think Atlanta is much improved, but the Bears are back (at least better than they were). I’m still not ready to fully buy in to the Bears rolling to the playoffs, but week after week they move up in my book.

Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (-7): I think the Raiders with Lane Kiffin is a great value here – but Lane was fired because Al Davis was beginning to look like an idiot -fair enough. Until the Raiders prove otherwise, I’m definitely not picking them. I actually felt comfortable taking Oakland in this situation, because I’ve never thought much of the Saints, but at just a touchdown this one is a home team special for me.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-13): Similar to Washington State sports, you can’t see much love for Detroit or St. Louis in the NFL right now. The Vikings are a decent team, they should have lost on Monday Night, but they are a decent team. They will run more and be more effective doing it against the Lions, and of course they can always throw if the need to. Detroit won’t be able to run, and their whole plan to do a scaled down offense with the hurry up seems like a backfire waiting to happen. Gimics don’t get you wins in the NFL, take the Vikings or don’t bet this game at all.

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Houston Texas: The 3.5 (the .5 part) gives me some value on the Dolphins. They do a good job of following their game plan, play discipline football, and make few mistakes offensively. I think the Texans are a much better team than 0-4 indicates, though, so if I had the choice I wouldn’t play this game. Houston has a solid offense and a defense with lots of talent, I think they will only get better as the seasons moves forward. I just like the fact that if Miami loses by a field goal I still win.

St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins (-13.5): All those points, what shall we do with them? Juggle them, shoot them in a hoop, I don’t care, I’d just stay away from any kind of “value bet” involving the St. Louis Rams. At -13.5 they might have some value, if they weren’t the Rams. If Detroit wasn’t around, the Rams would the be the sure thing worst team in football. Cincinnati and Cleveland would wallop the Rams. I like what the Redskins are doing, and honestly, they don’t have a weakness right now. They are getting healthier on defense and even with two touchdowns needed to cover, I think this is a solid bet.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos: This is another tough call for me. I like the Jaguars to run all over the Broncos, but I also like Denver to throw the ball all over the Jaguars secondary. It’s like these two teams are made to put up loads of points on each other. At 48, I’d be taking the over instead of playing either side of this game. I guess, like the Miami game, I see a little bit more value in +3.5, because if Denver comes down and kicks a field goal to win it I still win with the Jags. If Cutler and his receivers don’t hit on all cylinders then that also gives the value nod to Jacksonville. Even with a mediocre offensive line, the Jags should be all ball control in this one. Tough call, but my lean is on Jacksonville at +3.5.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ San Francisco 49ers: I like the Eagles in this one, in fact I love them. Philly has played like poo-poo over the last two weeks, and the week before that they weren’t brilliant either. That usually means good things for Eagles’ backers, as Philly is a one team slump buster. I think they do a lot right this weekend, even without Westbrook (if he indeed doesn’t play). Buckhalter is a nice running back, and without Westy they’ll just have to plan to get the ball to receiver’s hands more. The Eagles going to 2-4 with a loss to the 49ers, I don’t see it.

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: I like Dallas to dismantle the Cardinals, or at least win by a touchdown. I think the Boys bring a lot of speed at the quarterback, and while Warner has been pretty good (despite one turnover happy game) he has always been prone to the mistake, and Dallas has the athletes and offense to really make him pay. Arizona has a chance because of their run defense, but I like Barber to have a solid game against the Cardinals – that should cut out any hopes the Cards have at an upset here. Jason Witten and Terrell Owens should be enough to keep the Cardinals’ secondary occupied, meaning that extra help the front 7 usually gets won’t be there for much of the game. Cowboys are the play here.

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: Stay away from Washington sports. Seattle’s bound to have another receiver injury this week, and if that happens they’ll have to dress up Charlie Frye in an 80 number and see if he can’t pass for Steve Largent. Green Bay had a little bit too much hype after the first couple weeks, and now look where they are. Still, I don’t see them coming into Seattle and not running the ball right down the Seahawks throats. Ryan Grant should have his first big fantasy day of the year, and that will lead the Packers to a victory over their former coach.

New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers (-5.5): Lets see, the Patriots don’t run the ball real well right now and their passing game doesn’t flourish either. They capitalized on a lot of 49er mistakes in Week 5, but I doubt the Chargers will be so kind on Sunday Night. I’m willing to bet that LaDainian Tomlinson actually has a decent day on the ground, and Phillip Rivers continues to be his accurate self. The Patriots at +5.5 seem like a great bet, but my feeling has me taking the Chargers to win by a touchdown. Come on SD, this is your chance, get those Patriots while you can.

New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns (+9): Mistake? Maybe so. But the value is on Cleveland in this one. They play close games and they have talent. They will be as healthy as they’ve been all season, and New York is coming off one of their best games ever. Cleveland is coming off a bye week and while the Browns have stomped me down a couple times this season, I have to believe they’ll play up to their potential on Monday Night at home against the Super Bowl Champs. I also think this line should be somewhere close to 3.5 to 5 points, so 4 points of value is the way I have to go. Tough to pick against the Giants after the way they’ve started, but I’m not too amazed by their weak competition thus far – so maybe I’m right about this one after-all.

Five for Friday

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I’m putting you guys on UPSET watch – both fantasy-wise and reality football games as well. I have five of each- here’s the explosive Friday Five (x2) – that equals 10…

FANTASY

  1. The Ravens (a Top 3 defense so far this season in fantasy land) goes up against a Titans team that doesn’t put up a lot of points. You’d think this would be a good match-up, but get ready for the fantasy upset. The Titans don’t make many mistakes, and the Ravens have to be a little behind during a short week and after a big physical game on Monday night in Pittsburgh. Don’t expect big things from the Ravens D.

  2. Tony Romo against the Bengals might seem dreamy, but I just don’t see him loading up and throwing the ball all over the field, not after Dallas forgot about their stellar rushing attack and lost to Washington last week. Tony won’t throw more than 25 times, and I think that limits his value this week. He’ll be good, but I’d say he just sneaks into the Top 10, not a real Tony Romo week.

  3. Santana Moss against the Eagles – right now Moss is in one of those “big year” states that he gets in from time to time, and I’m sure he’ll continue to do well – just not this week in Philly. The Eagles secondary is very good, and I’d bet they put extra work into shutting down Moss. Randel El is solid, but if he gets the ball he won’t hurt you like Santana does, same with Chris Cooley. I’m guessing Moss has 5 catches or less for less than 50 yards.

  4. Mike Turner – all the “experts” are saying that Mike can’t do it against good defenses, and this week they can’t be proven right. I love the Packers, but they lost a great DT in a trade this year, and they are missing another starter this week. They are struggling in the secondary with injuries, and their big hitting safety is out too. Turner will do well against a good defense, but that defense is injury depleted. For the record, I’m not one of those anti-Turner “experts”.

  5. Marshawn Lynch against Arizona might sound flashy, but I don’t think it will turn out that way. Arizona is much better against the run than people give them credit for, and the Bills aren’t very creative with Lynch in his carry load. Expect him to be very mediocre this week. Again.

REAL FOOTBALL

  1. I’m taking the Colts, but the Texans are winless and they pack a pretty nice offensive combo through the air and on the ground. Andre Johnson hasn’t gone off yet, and Kevin Walter has been solid. Steve Slaton might do the trick for Houston. Upset watch – get on it!

  2. Washington at Philadelphia – they can’t possibly beat the Cowboys and Eagles back to back, can they? I don’t think it will happen, but the Redskins are legit. They have a tough team that comes out to win every time. The Redskins are pretty injury ridden defensively, but you never know, they could use black magic.

  3. Detroit vs. Chicago – once again, I’m with the Bears on this one, but Chicago could revert back to last years’ play, and Detroit could crawl out under the Millen rock in a single week. Detroit has some talent, no doubt about that, and this would be a big one for them. I’m just saying, watch out.

  4. Tampa Bay at Denver is scary for the Broncos. Tampa does all the things that Denver doesn’t – ball control, tough defense, doesn’t give you anything for free, doesn’t take unnecessary chances. Denver could win by two touchdowns or get beat at home – interesting week for a team that was becoming everyone’s favorite offensive show.

  5. Seattle never does well on the road and New York is undefeated after winning the Super Bowl – look out, upset city could rear it’s ugly head. You know why? Because it seems that unlikely – that’s right. Seattle gets Engram and Branch back, and that should give them a little boost. Julius is running well. This defense is tougher than scores have shown. New York is without Plaxico, a guy that torches Seattle. You never know.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 2

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Two weeks, two winners. That’s right, for the second straight week I picked every game the NFL had to offer and came out on top of the books. A little luck, a lot of plusses and minuses to consider, and here I am, 8 games over .500 after two weeks. My first week, 10-6, my second week, 9-5-1. That puts me at 19-11-1. This is how Week 2 went wild.

Oakland Raiders (+4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) “I think the Raiders will go back to the drawing board and see that running the ball will work for them.” Fargas got hurt, but he was off to a nice start before he went out. McFadden rushed for 160 yards and Michael Bush toted the rock for 90 yards himself. Needless to say, the Raiders relied on the run and it carried them to an easy victory over the Chiefs. I WIN!

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-3): (PUSH) Not much to say here, it was a tough game to cap and this is why. The Panthers aren’t a great home team, they don’t play well when favored, but the Bears are just the Bears, and not much to be worried about. It came down to the wire, but Jonathan Stewart’s touchdown put the Panther’s up 3 to stay and I pushed.

New Orleans Saints (+1) @ Washington Redskins: (LOSS) Up 24-15 going into the 4th quarter, the Saints were looking like a nice selection right around a pick’em. But the Redskins fought hard at home, and Jim Zorn got his first victory of the season. New Orleans was back to running the ball very poorly and Washington threw all over the Saints’ secondary as Jason Campbell put up over 300 yards through the air. The Redskins scored 14 unanswered in the 4th and took home the win.

Indianapolis Colts (pk) @ Minnesota Vikings: (WINNER) “I like the Vikings to exploit the Colts run defense, but this game comes down to the wire and Peyton Manning, with one regular season game under his belt, can do enough against a suspect Viking pass defense to take this game on the road.” As it was Adrian Peterson went off for 160 rushing yards but it wasn’t enough as Peyton lead his squad down the field to win this one late. Peyton still has his rust, and it might not be warn off by next Sunday, but he had enough to make my prediction ring true, 300+ yards for the dumpy faced Colt QB.

New York Giants (-8) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) The Giants seemingly did anything they wanted to the Rams, and this wasn’t a close contest at all. St. Louis looks really bad, and I have to believe that Scott Linnehan’s future is starting to look grim in St. Louis. Eli followed the lead of his fellow poo-faced brother and really tossed the ball around the Rams secondary, putting up 40+ points on the Rams to show what the Eagles did wasn’t a fluke.

Buffalo Bills (+6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) “without three of their starting offensive linemen, the Jaguars just don’t seem like a good favorite to bet on. I think the Jags will be better against the Bills than the Hawks were, but Buffalo’s physical play is a nice match-up for a physical Jags team. There aren’t many teams that will try to out-tough the Jaguars, and the Bills might just do that in Week 2. Take the points in this battle.” This one was close, and even with a poor offensive effort the Jags were leading headed down to the final minutes. But, Trent Edwards showed what he can do and orchestrated a nice game winning touchdown drive to end this thing. This was a solid bet.

Atlanta Falcons (+9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (LOSS) I still think I capped this game right. The Bucs were definitely out to make Matt Ryan beat them, and he couldn’t do anything close to that. Tampa stacked their line against the run and shut down Week 1’s rushing leader, Michael Turner. Earnest Graham looked legit again in less than 20 carries of action, and the Brian Griese led Bucs iced the Falcons and just wouldn’t allow touchdowns. Anyway, I’ll take the loss here.

San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) What can I say, when it rains, it floods the Hawks, that’s for sure. As if the fact that they were starting Logan Payne at receiver wasn’t bad enough, the Hawks lost Payne to a season ending knee injury in the first quarter. Ridiculous. I read somewhere, “Was Brett Favre on the cover of Madden ’09 or was it the Seahawks receiving corps?” Good accurate question there. Seattle still had a chance late, but really, they looked bad throughout this contest. THe only guys that looked good were Julius Jones and John Carlson. Either way, the 49ers won and my +220 bet I made felt really good when that game winning field goal went through the uprights. Your +9 looked brilliant throughout I’m sure.

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals (-6): (WINNER) “I expect Kurt Warner to air it out a little more against a suspect Dolphins secondary, as his two receivers look to have big games. The Cardinals are the best team in the NFC West, and while that doesn’t say much, it does mean they can handle the Dolphins with ease.” Warner was 19/24 for 361 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bolding caught 6 balls for 140 yards and 3 touchdowns. Larry Fitzgerald caught 6 balls for 153 yards. Seems like I took care of this game before it happened. Gotta love that.

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans (-4): No game this week – will be played on November 9th.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (LOSS) The Steelers looked like they dominated this game, but they never scored again after Hines Ward’s touchdown, and 10 was enough to keep the Browns winless to start the season. Ben’s shoulder hurt a bit and it showed, as the Steelers just did their best to run out the clock. I really feel like I got a raw deal here, but since I did pretty well this week I’ll just shrug it off.

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) “Come on, this seems like an insulting line. This is definitely one of my picks of the week.” This game was easy to pick, but then the Lions fought back, but they then decided to be the Lions again and lose by a 48-25 margin. Brilliant. This was basically free money, and I hope you cashed in.

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals:  (WINNER) “Free Money – even with Kerry Collins at quarterback. The Titans and the Bengals are on a different level, same league, but different level. For example, the Titans have 11 starting defensive players that can really tackle. The Bengals have one, and he’s a rookie. The Titans have a solid offensive attack despite quarterback trouble -the Bengals have a talented quarterback with previous success that looks lost because of how bad his offense is. Things are going bad in Cinci, and a Titan beat down isn’t going to make them feel any better.” Uh, yeah. When I said “free money” i meant “free money”.

San Diego Chargers (pk) @ Denver Broncos: (LOSS) The Chargers didn’t deserve to win this game despite the terrible call that handed the Broncos a victory late. That may sound weird, but the Broncos dominated this contest, and if it weren’t for some amazing plays down the stretch the Chargers wouldn’t have been close. Shanny’s balls to go for it to win the game… priceless. I lose this one, but it was as close as it gets, no doubt about that.

New England Patriots (+2.5) @ New York Jets: (WINNER) “At least there was something good out of Tom Brady going down with an injury – we get this spread to play with. I’ll take the Patriots as a dog against the Jets and laugh it all the way to the bank.” I am still giggling a bit, as the Patriots made Brett Favre’s addition look like a meaningless free agent signing. That’s right folks, even without our favorite quarterback, the Patriots are still one of the best teams in the league. Viva la free money!

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5): (LOSS)  Wow. What a game. The Eagles held the lead after a couple Cowboy mistakes early, but after McNabb put the ball on the turf in the 4th quarter, the Cowboys took the lead for good. A late drive couldn’t cut it for the Eagles, but they did cover, making me a loser for the 5th time this week. Still, after 15 games I was 9-5-1, not too shabby.

NFL Pre-Season Free Picks Review: Week 3

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After 3 weeks of pre-season football I’m 7-4-1. Week 3 was my first losing week of the season as I finished 2-3 with a little bad luck from my friends. This is what Week 3 looked like…

San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (-3):Kyle Orton and Reshied Davis were dealing early, and I thought I was in good position to take this one with the Bears up going into the 2nd quarter. But, Rexxy Grossman let me down again – weird. J.T. O’Sullivan and his rocket cannon arm tore up the Bears secondary, and that secondary doesn’t look promising for the season. Alex Smith even tossed a touchdown in the 2nd half, and basically beat me. Yes, Alex Smith beat me. Ugh. One game, one loss…

Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons: Vince Young was brutal, Chris Johnson didn’t break one, and even Kerry Collins was 1 for 8 – maybe the Falcons aren’t as bad as everyone thinks they are? Hmm… That might be something to keep in mind to start this season. Matt Ryan looked confident and accurate against a solid TItans defense, completing 15 of 21 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown pass to fellow rookie Harry Douglas. That right there was enough to oust the Titans as Tennessee managed just 3 points all night. This was a big miss.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) @ New England Patriots: Bet against the Pats when they don’t have Tom Brady – I don’t care if it’s the pre-season, regular season, or off-season – without Tom they lose a lot of their luster. The Eagles looked solid against that old Pats defense, but don’t worry Pats fans, this is just the pre-season  – I’m sure Big Bill will get the damn thing figured out. A win for me!

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3): Just in, the Jaguars are going to be good. Garrard was accurate an efficient, and the Jags defense really made life hard for Jeff Garcia and the Bucs. Garcia did play and he threw 2 interceptions in his limited work. My 2nd big miss gave me my third loss of the week, making sure that I’d be under .500 for the first time this year.

New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals: “Boy oh boy the Bengals have looked bad. And it’s not just their running game, Carson Palmer has been inconsistent and timid in the pocket. I think the Saints will dominate this game against a confused Bengals club.” Neither of these offenses looked deadly, but the Bengals were downright pathetic. They didn’t score a once, against the freaking Saints – it’s not looking good in Cinci. Back to the Bungles! This was an easy win that I really needed this week.