Ask Papa Weimer: Week 6 Fantasy Football Advice

It’s been a pretty busy week for me in fantasy football with answering questions for week 6. No doubt the listing of my email address last week (papaweimer50@hotmail.com) was just the trick I needed to be in here hunting and pecking for the right words to answer questions. I’ve listed some late questions and answers from last week’s stuff below, I also have some relevant questions for this weeks fantasy football action. If you have questions, ask them. If I get enough by later in the week, I’ll post my questions and answers again in Ask Papa Weimer Week 6, section b or 2 or something of the sort. Stop trying to confuse me. I’m witty folks, unflappable like Tiger and Larry Bird and Michael Jordan put into one chubby old white dude. I call it how I see it!

Last Week’s Late Questions:

Michael from Denmark wrote in, “I play in a points league, that also awards receptions. I’m pretty well set in most positions, but have big doubts as to who I should start in the flex position. My options are Tashard Choice, Rickie Williams and Roddy White. I like Choice’s matchup against the Chiefs, but with Barber recovering, I fear a dip in his workload. Rickie Williams is playing well, and with Pennington out, he could see enough of the ball to produce good numbers, but I don’t particularly like the Jets matchup. Roddy has been rusty, but as my top draft pick at WR, I feel that I shouldn’t abandon him completely, and I’m confident he will start to produce at some point, I’m just not sure it will be against a strong 49’ers D.”

Michael, thanks for the email. I am pretty sure I would roll with Tashard Choice. He plays against the worst rushing defense in the league, or at least one of them, and while Barber is expected to play, he’s not going to be fully healthy and the Cowboys didn’t want to make him carry the ball every time even when he was fully healthy. Choice is a very good runner that explodes through the line, and he has a very good chance to get a lot of carries for the Cowboys, especially if they get up early against the Chiefs. I wouldn’t start Ricky just because he’s going against the Jets. New York is great against the run, and they certainly won’t be too worried about Chad Henne beating them all day. Roddy is a great player, but until I’m convinced they are going to try and get him the ball, I’m going to stay away from him against great defenses. He’s a beast, always a threat to make a big play, but Nate Clements is one of the best defensive backs in the league, and thus I expect him to give Roddy a tough time all day long. In a better match-up, I would definitely give Roddy a shot. All’s not lost with him, but hopefully the Falcons will start taking chances with their best receiver… I think the match-up insists that Dallas could be up early and up big, and if that’s the case, why would they waste Marion and risk getting him hurt just for mop up duty in the 2nd half? That will be choice’s job, a job he’ll do very well, and he rates out highly as a flex option for me this week. (now of course Roddy White blows up, and Ricky did work too, luckily for me Teshard was plenty for Michael to win his league, even though he started Sims-Walker: he was luckier than me in that regard!)

BSimmons wrote in, “I have a question on which WR to start. Donald Driver is out for me this week and I have Nate Burleson, Donnie Avery and Braylon Edwards with his new team.. Who should I start?? Thanks in advance!”

I think your starter is Nate Burleson, and by a long shot. I’d either wait for Edwards to prove himself in New York, or sell him to someone who loves him in New York. It’s hard to join a team in Week 5 and be a plus player the rest of the year. Chris Chambers wasn’t very good for San Diego a few years back, and Roy Williams did nothing in Dallas last season. I don’t know of a situation where a mid season trade at receiver went well for that receiver’s fantasy stats. Avery is a nice talent, but he’s still battling a hamstring injury, and his QB situation is brutal at best. I’d leave him on your bench until he proves that he’s completely healthy. Nate has a great match-up against a porous secondary, and he gets nearly 10 targets a game or something like that. I like him as a start this week. Hope that helps! (all of these guys had nice weeks, but I found the top gun of the three, as Nasty Nate finished with 10 more points than either Donnie or Braylon – that being said, Braylon really impressed me for the Jets, he could be a solid play the rest of the season. I wonder if he eats into Jericho’s numbers?)

Stuck in a Trailer writes, “I’m stuck in a trailer in Colorado. I figured my best bet was to ask you my fantasy question this week.  Do I really sit Steve Smith (NYG),  my other receivers are Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Mike Sims-walker.  A lot of people seem to think these guys are the better choice this week.  What’s your thought? Thanks!”

Has the snow begun or what? Jammed up in a trailer, I can see sitting Steve Smith. Anquan Boldin has a great match-up against the Houston Texans secondary, Larry Fitz should get lots of attention, and you know Kurt and company will be throwing the ball. Calvin Johnson plays against a Steelers secondary that has been brutal against the pass this season. And Mike Sims-Walker goes against the Seahawks, minus their only stud corner (Trufant) and in a huge rut the last three weeks. Steve has a tough match-up with Nnamdi but you’re right, it’d be tough for me to sit him after all he’s done. I’m not sure he’s the type of receiver that Oakland will try to take away with their top corner, but there’s a chance. If I were going to sit one guy and play Smith, I would sit Calvin Johnson, if only because if I was Pittsburgh I would just try to blitz the snot out of Culpepper with double coverage on Calvin. So yes, I would probably end sitting Steve Smith, but it’s a coin flip with Calvin. Steve has the tougher match-up, and is playing against a bad Oakland team so Eli won’t be throwing as much. Hope this helps! (who knew Calvin would get hurt immediately and Mike Sims-Walker would not even get to play because he broke a curfew or something – sorry man, hope the Trailor is warming up! – At least I helped him out properly with this next one…

” Stuck in a Trailer tries me again, “Thanks for the Quick reply.  I just might sit Steve this week and hope it proves to be one of those decisions I can brag about.  Your input was helpful in my decision making so I thought I might get your take on one more conundrum.  DeAngelo Williams, Clinton Portis or Reshard Mendenhall. Can only pick two and so far I think I have switched them around about nine times. No snow as of yet, but between awaiting your responses I’m stocking the wood shed.”

This Week’s Early Questions:

David in Minnesota sent a fearsome foursome of questions my way, “Maclin or Manningham who will be better in the long run? Chester Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Derrick Ward, or Fred Jackson which of these would you keep and why? What about giving up Manningham for Sims-Walker, would you make that deal? How would you rank the following and why: Royal,Collie, Nicks Hakeem, and Crabtree.I am looking for a bye week replacement and a potential WR to take over for TO if he and Edwards don’t get their act together. Thanks for all your help!

Anytime David – Here are your answers in order of the questions… Career-wise, Maclin, he’s a special dynamic – and this season, it’s a tough one. It depends on what you’re going for. Owning an eagle receiver is a scary gig. How many games will DeSean Jackson have 1 catch for 0 yards? I think Manningham is going to be good for 4-5 catches a week, a touchdown 6 or 7 times, and a decent flex or back-up receiver start. I think Maclin could have a couple no-shows, like Jackson this week, but that’s because the Eagles roll that way. It’s tough, surely, but I think Maclin has a better chance to have a huge week while Manningham has a better chance to be decent week in and week out. But, with the Eagles you really never know. If you want consistency, Manningham is probably your best bet. If you want a shot at big points, Maclin is your lottery ticket. Hope that helps David, that’s the best I can do.

Boy, tough call on those running backs; And it would depend on who your other running backs are. If you’re looking for a guy that might not do anything, but if his starter gets hurt he’ll be a Top 10 back, stick with Chester Taylor. Fred Jackson is another guy like that, but he should probably continue to get fantasy numbers, so keeping him around might be easier, but his upside isn’t as high as Chester’s. Derrick Ward has lost a lot of value with the emergence of Caddy and his health, and the demergence of the Bucs wanting to win this season. Jamal Lewis looks like he’ll get all the carries if he’s healthy, and that offensive line is tough, but I just don’t see the offense in Cleveland being worth while this year, that passing game is quite pukeish. Still, of all the guys you listed, I think Jamal is the surest thing for carries on a weekly basis. He has some tough match-ups, but if you’re looking for a guy to start week in and week out, Lewis might be your answer. Again, not a sure thing answer here, but hope that helps.

As for the WR switch, I would much rather have Sims-Walker….
And finally, I’d take Royal #1 because he is the best receiver you’ve listed, and he’s not a rookie. Hakeem Nicks and Collie are tied, in my mind, they will both be contending with other receivers all year long, and while Collie has been more productive, he’ll lose touches in two weeks when Gonzo returns from injury while Nicks might gain touches as he gets more comfortable with the NFL and Giants’ offense. I like Crabtree a lot, but he’s been out of football for quite some time, remember, he spent much of his off season getting healthy and staying off his foot. His talent is immense, no doubt, but it’s a long shot that he’s a top talent this season, so I’d rate him last out of that bunch, for this season.

NFL Fantasy Football Advice: Ask Papa Weimer Week 3

I’m old. I’m tired. I’m grumpy. My ass hurts from sitting in this chair. Where can I get one of those soft little pillow doughnut things to sit on anyway? Note to family: get my ace a nice chair for Christmas or you’re not getting any inheritance. I’ve had questions screaming in this week, people wondering which guy to start, who to trade, who to target in trades. These are the questions and answers I picked out to share.

Dennis in and out of the US asks, “I have a couple guys that I think are overachieving, and I know there are some players out there underachieving. Of these four guys (Percy Harvin, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, and Santonio Holmes) which ones would you try to trade, and are there any guys you’d try to grab while their value is down?

Red Red Ryan makes a pretty good point about Cedric Benson, but I think he’s still a solid guy to have on your squad, he and the three other guys you mention should all have solid years, but you’re right in assessing their value right now, it’s probably higher than it should be. I would probably try to move Benson, Harvin, and Williams and keep Holmes, if you can get some good value. I think Holmes might be a treat for fantasy owners that paid the price for his services this season. He’s getting tons of targets on a Steelers team that doesn’t run the ball well, and is going to throw a lot more this season. Plus, he’s a playmaker. But like I said, all four of these guys are solid, I just think Holmes holds onto his value all season long, while a couple of these guys will fall off. In a trade, I would try to acquire Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith (Carolina), Ryan Grant, Knowshon Moreno, and Daren McFadden. All of those guys have pretty low value considering their ability, and all look like they are going to gain some value this week. I think all of them will have pretty solid seasons. Forte and Slaton have begun the season with really tough match-ups. Portis has an easier schedule coming up. Steve Smith’s value is still suffering despite being heavily targeted early in the season. Ryan Grant will get more rushing attempts from here forward. Moreno is dynamic and will only get better as he gets used to the speed of the game. And McFadden is still a superior talent. If you can trade some guys flying high for a couple guys that haven’t impressed owners, I think it’s a good move.

David from Minnesota asks, “Would you trade LT away to get Ray Rice? How about Leon Washington and TJ Houshmanzadeh moving to get LT and Donald Driver or Percy Harvin? Thanks in advance!”

David, thanks for the questions. These must be different leagues as you’re trading away LT in one, and getting him in another. On the first half, Yeah, I think so. I think LT will be fine. But Ray Rice is solid too – tough call, but I’d probably go with LT if I had the choice. On the second question, It just depends what you think about the Hawks and their recent string of injuries to start the season. I personally think they’ll get healthy here very soon, and TJ Housh will be huge, especially in PPR leagues – so I would much rather have him than Driver or Harvin, even though he’s firmly behind them in rankings thus far. Leon looks like he’s getting at least 20 touches per game, which should lead to some big days. ON the other side, as much as I love LT, I’m not sure he’s going to be getting much more than 20 touches the rest of the way. The Jets have a stellar offensive line, better than the Chargers if you ask me. If I had to choose, between LT and Leon, I would go with LT, like I said – but I don’t think I’d give up Housh to do so – his value is still high on my board.

Pretty Patty in Seattle asks, “Weims, having trouble picking my starters this week. Who do you like this week between these guys. (Need to pick 3 to go with my other two starting receivers, colston and manningham) Thanks! (Steven Jackson, Darren Mcfadden, Leshon McCoy, Braylon Edwards, Johnny Knox, Nate Burleson) PPR league…

Pretty, McCoy would be a sure thing if, and only if, you’re sure Westbrook isn’t playing. He should get lots of carries against the Chiefs porous run defense, and if it’s a PPR league I’m sure he’ll get a handful of catches as well. Steven Jackson is one of the three no matter what. The Packers have been terrible against the run, and I’m sure Jackson will be a huge part of the Rams game plan as they try to trick the Packers out of a win. Bulger can only throw 10 yards accurately, which puts Jackson in his range most of the time. Plus, he’s just flat out the best player in this group, and you have to go with your horses. I think another guy would be Braylon Edwards. Surprisingly, the Ravens have been pretty terrible against the pass, as Brodie Croyle of all clowns, had a good outing against them in Week 1, and Rivers torched them to the tune of one billion yards in Week 2. The problem with the Ravens is they are so good against the run, and they’ll likely be up early, so the Browns will probably have to throw a lot. I usually don’t like Cleveland offensive players, but 7 catches and 100 yards from Edwards wouldn’t surprise me. If Westy is going to play, and from what I read, it looks like he will, I think I’d go with McFadden. Now this one is a little tricky because Denver has been great against the run this season, but then again, you have to look at who they’ve played. Cincinnati and Cleveland aren’t two rushing attacks that strike fear into my heart. So I’m not sure they’re as good as they are lucky to have been scheduled to pissy running attacks to start the season. The Raiders can really run, and McFadden should get the ball more this week. JaMarcus Russell has been a joke (he’s barely batting .350 through the air, gross) so Denver could stack up against the run – but I still think they don’t have elite front 7 power, and McFadden should have his best yardage output of the season. If you don’t want to go with McFadden, take a chance on Nate or Knox. Nate’s been getting targeted lots of times, and obviously a dynamic touchdown threat, he could get to the house against a Bears secondary that doesn’t really have the speed to cover elite WRs. Nate might not be elite, but his speed and touchdown play potential is definitely amongst the games best. Knox is looking like one of Cutler’s favorite targets, and the Hawks secondary isn’t an exciting shut down group at the moment. I just think the Bears will run a lot more this week against a D-front that doesn’t look powerful after Frank Gore had his way with them. So I’d side with Nate, but just barely. Hope that helps, Patty. Good luck!

2009 NFL Fantasy Football: Lucky Lester Shares his Predictions

Last year’s predictions had some big winners, a couple tough luck losers, not to mention a handful of “what the hell was I thinking” fortunes that I told all wrong. I won’t get them all right this year either, but I’d like to think my waterfall of fantasy fodder will get you on the right track for your drafts, seasonal trade value, and possibly even a date with that girl that works at Victoria Secret. The brunette. As goes, I’ll spout off some claim, maybe even a sentence explaining why I think this, and will review the whole thing later in the year to see how it all went. All four of the writers doing work on this site will do an article similar to this, and in the end we’ll see who is the sharpest beach ball of them all. Let the games begin!

1. When Maurice Jones-Drew straps up his helmet this season he’ll get 5-10 more touches per game. According to Josh Arsenault’s “Value of Opportunity” article that means big things for MJD. How big? Try 1800+ total yards and 14+ TDs for one of the game’s most explosive players.

2. Through one game last season, Nate Burleson was on pace to have 900+ yards and 80 catches. He’ll get close to that this season, despite being TJ Housh’s sidekick for the Seattle Seahawks. How close? Lets say 70 grabs and 900 yards, plus at least 6 touchdowns. Not a bad output for a guy rarely getting picked before Round 14, if at all.

3. Last year, Donnie Avery posted 53 receptions, 674 yards, and 3 scores for the Rams. He’ll double that last total, while finishing with at least 70 grabs and 850 yards.

4. Two of the following four quarterbacks will fail to play 12 games this year: Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Big Ben Roethlisberger. O-line questions, style of play observations, interesting coaching decisions, and some bad freaking luck will likely play a role.

5a. If Daunte Culpepper gets the job out of camp, he’ll throw more than 20 touchdowns in 2009.

5b. If Matthew Stafford gets the gig out of camp, he’ll throw for less than 15.

6. At least two of these guys will be in the top 5 in rushing yards this season: LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Ryan Grant.

7. There is a business like show business – it’s called professional sports.

8. The last time Tony Gonzalez had less than 73 catches was 2002 and that was the only time that happened in the last 10 years. He’ll have fewer catches this season.

9. Reggie Bush will end up having more fantasy points than Pierre Thomas, despite getting drafted after him in almost every single draft. Many forget that Reggie played in only 10 games (2 of which he barely played in) and he still finished with over 800 total yards and 6 TDs.

10. Matt Hasselbeck is moving up my rankings based on his strength and accuracy thus far in the pre-season. He’ll finish as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.

11. Trent Edwards also has seen a boost. It’s just the pre-season, I know, but I see him being a Top 20 guy, easily.

12. When are people going to recognize Eddie Royal? This kid is going to be special. In his second season he’ll improve on his 91 catches, 980 yards, and five touchdowns. Yes, that means he’ll be even better without Cutler, folks.

13. Last year was amazing for DeAngelo Williams. First the Panthers draft Jon Stewart in the 1st round, then Williams turns into the best fantasy running back in the league. Not a fluke, the guy is a very smart runner. He won’t match his TDs from last season, but his rushing yardage will shoot over the 1500 yard mark once again.

14. Everybody and their mother thinks Ronnie Brown is overrated going into 2009 because “half his points came in one game, blah, blah, blah”. What a joke. The fat lady hasn’t even written a song for this kid yet, he’s going to tear it up in the AFC East this season. Halfway through his 7th game in 2007, Brown was just 9 yards short of 1000 from scrimmage with 5 touchdowns. He was the only offensive threat on the field and he was still rushing for over 5 yards per carry. He’s a beast. He’s fully healthy and more than a year removed from his knee injury. This will easily be his best season. I predict over 1400 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns from the 27 year old with very few miles on his tires.

15. Speaking of the fat lady, these old guys aren’t dead yet: Each player, despite their avg. draft slot, will have solid years. Torry Holt (35th WR), Terrell Owens (12th WR), Clinton Portis (14th RB) (only 28 this season, but an OLD 28), and LT (7th RB) should all be good. At least 3 of the 4 will will finish above their average draft slot ranking.

16. Youth Movement? Not this year, not for rookies anyway. After 4 rookie running backs finished in the top 20 in total rushing yards last season (3 in the Top 10), no more than one rookie will match that mark this season (none in the Top 10).

17. Julius Jones is getting picked late. Probably even later than he was before Edgerrin James got swooped up by the Hawks. But Jones will still be the man in Seattle, and that zone blocking scheme should be a good one for his Irish style. He once had 1084 rushing yards for the Cowboys and 4 touchdowns. I’m saying he finishes with more yards and scores than he did during his best season with Dallas. In fact, I’m willing to suggest he has 8 touchdowns or more in 2009.

18. There are 25 running backs getting picked ahead of Darren McFadden. He out produces at least half of those guys, and makes it into the Top 12 this season. He’s moving up my board!

19. Brandon Jacobs finishes the season with more carries and yards than he ever has in his career. Oh, and he at least matches those 15 scores from a season ago. That offensive line is beastly.

20. What does Dallas do with all those TO targets this season? Roy Williams? Sure, Roy will get more targets, but a lot of those TO touches are going to Felix Jones. That means he’ll be much better than his average draft position. His ADP is 36, he’ll be top 20.

21. People are drafting Vincent Jackson as if he will get the same numbers he got last season. So, a couple picks ahead of that, you should grab him. He will have better totals across the board, catches, yardage, touchdowns.

22. Mark Sanchez (the rookie that was “not ready for the NFL” according to the “brilliant” Coach Carol at USC) will win at least 8 games as the Jets starting signal caller this season.

23. Steve Slaton will outscore every sophomore running back not named Matt Forte. That’s right, those in love with McFadden’s upside, Chris Johnson’s speed, Kevin Smith, and Jon Stewart’s all around tools, Slaton is the guy I see being a stud this season.

24. Tim Hightower will be a better fantasy back than Beanie Wells – especially in PPR leagues. Beanie can’t catch. Beanie gets hurt. Tim isn’t my fave, not at all, but his fantasy stats will be better than the Cardinals’ first round pick’s numbers.

25. The San Diego Chargers’ defense will once again be a Top 5 fantasy unit.

26. Anquan Boldin > Roddy White (fantasy points).

27. Derrick Ward, often drafted as the 37th RB overall. He’ll be at least 10 spots higher than that on the end-of-season running back rankings.

28. Mark Sanchez gets drafted ahead of Matt Hasselbeck in most fantasy leagues. I promise Matt will be better than Mark, in fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt doubles Mark in touchdowns. Shoot, right it down.

29. Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten will all finish ahead of Tony Gonzalez in the TE rankings.

30. Anthony Gonzalez, Eddie Royal, along with Vincent and DeSean Jackson will all have more fantasy points than Braylon Edwards this season.

That’s it, as promised, I’m first: 3 more prediction sessions on the way before the season begins…

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 4

Here I am, and I’m back early this week. Already on Monday I’ve gotten quite a few emails, and have three that I’d like to share. I’m old, grouchy because the Patriots (my Week 3 survivor) lost, and hungry (because there’s no damn food in the house). So hopefully my anger doesn’t travel through the keyboard. Well, ah, here goes nothing…

Jimmy Z from Portland writes in, “Papa, before the season started you predicted that, Marion Barber would be the best running back this season in fantasy land. So far you’re close, Barber sits at number 2 amongst running backs after Week 2. But there’s this other guy at #1, a little feller named Reggie Bush. How do you like Reggie going forward? Is it time to trade the former Trojan? I’m in a PPR league and he seems like a good bet to continue catching balls. What do you think?”

Jimmy, I think Reggie is going to have a great year, no doubt about it. In fact, in that same “Papa’s Predictions” article, I said “Reggie Bush – 10+ total touchdowns this season, his highest total of his career.”- but I didn’t think Reggie would ever be leading all running backs in fantasy points. Honestly, if you can get a guy like Marion Barber for Reggie, I say go for it. But right now, in a PPR league, the guys that selected Reggie Bush are patting themselves on the back, and you should be as well. After three games, Reggie has compiled 402 total yards and 4 touchdowns (2 receiving, 1 rushing, 1 special teams score), and while I don’t expect him to tally up 2,200 all purpose yards, it’s not out of the question. That’s right, a guy like Bush that can catch the ball and he gets carries out of the backfield, he has the chance to break 2000 yards from scrimmage for sure. Bush is going to have his best season, I thought that headed in, and while the pre-season brought his value down a little bit for me, I am sticking with my prediction of double digit touchdowns and now I think he’ll approach 2000 yards from scrimmage. In a PPR, I say hold onto him. Reggie is on pace to catch 125+ balls this season. I think he’ll catch about 100. That’s like 1000 extra rushing yards in that scoring format. Hold onto your good pick, Jimmy.

Bad Boy from Jersey thanks me for giving him the reassurance needed to take Marion Barber over LT, he says, “Papa, you are the man! Earlier this year, just before my draft, I wrote in asking you if it was okay to take Marion Barber over AP and LT – I had the #2 pick and though I thought Barber would be the better back this season, I knew the “value” was with Peterson and Tomlinson. Anyway, after your advice to “go for it” I did grab Barber #2 overall, ahead of LT and Peterson (Brady was picked #1 – hahaha), and right now Barber is easily outscoring both of those guys. I got laughed at during the draft we have at my buddies house, but I just shrugged it off and said, “We’ll see.” Well, we’re seeing right now. Barber is a BEAST! Thanks for the courage!”

You bet Bad Boy – anytime I can help. The funny thing is, in a year where everyone was crawling all over quarterbacks and receivers, four running backs sit atop fantasy land’s scoring highs after Week 3. Reggie Bush, Marion Barber, Michael Turner, and Frank Gore. Brilliant – we were higher than most on all 4 of those guys here at LuckyLester.com, and it’s nice to see our hard work paying off for readers. I still think Barber is the best back in fantasy football as I predicted that he would be the top fantasy back this year. Thanks for the love, but remember, you also thought Barber was the best choice available – you gotta give yourself a little credit, all I needed to do was give you a little push. Good luck the rest of the way!

Dough Slammer from East Carolina writes, “Haha – when I first read this “Barry Sanders and Ahman Green have similar chances to succeed in 2008, so for fun, do draft the former right after the latter is selected,” in your “Dos and Don’ts: Draft Day Trickery!” article I just about pissed my pants… freaking hilarious. Then I started to think about it, and not only are your right, but I’m pretty sure I’m going to do this for the rest of eternity. Anytime somebody does something like this I’m taking Barry Sanders or Bo Jackson, or somebody that was popular back in the day that could still take the ball for 5 yards a carry in their early 40s. Anyway, to my other comment; in that same article you said, “Don’t pick anybody that broke a record last season – the value just isn’t there,” and I couldn’t help but think, this guy is funny, sure, but he’s an idiot – everyone wants Randy Moss and Tom Brady on their team.” Now I’m thinking, okay, this guy is funny and he’s a freaking fortune teller – how did you know they were going to struggle and do you have any other advice for the rest of the season?”

Dough Slammer, a couple things. First of all – your name is to be recognized as a great nickname with epic story lines that could explain why you are indeed called, Dough Slammer. Brilliant. Second, I love your email, it makes me feel all warm and cuddly inside, and appreciate the fact that you appreciate what I’m doing here for next to nothing (My nephew gives me a beer for every article I write – which is nice because I’m not supposed to drink, and he’s the only one that gives me it, but still, next to nothing). Third, I didn’t “KNOW” for sure that Tom and Randy would struggle, but the chances of guys that played every single game of a 19 game season getting hurt are a lot greater than guys who played 14-15 or even 16 games. The Patriots were going all out all the time in every game they played – just more contact, more collisions, and more future problems come from that. But taking a player that just broke a record is never good. First of all, there’s almost 0% chance that they relive those same numbers. And second, everyone else knows about them and wants to have them on their very own fantasy teams. Lastly, I’ll do this one favor for you. Go right to the first Jamal Lewis owner you have in your fantasy leagues, every single one of them, offer that guy or those guys one of your players that is decent, that has played above his pick level, and trade for Lewis if you can. Don’t give up a starter on your team, but for example, you might be able to trade Ronnie Brown for Jamal Lewis and Braylon Edwards (a perfect guy is “pick all the Browns guy” because he should have both Edwards and Lewis right now). Feel good about that trade. Trade Hines Ward for Lewis. Trade Felix Jones for Lewis. Edgerrin James for Lewis – you bet. The point is this. Jamal played pretty well against very tough rush defenses. The hardest part of his schedule is over and he’ll start to put up some big numbers, because just like the Saints last year, the Browns are going to get back to doing what they did in yesteryear, and Lewis is going to be a big time reason why. He’s basically free right now. Make it happen if you can. Good luck the rest of the way Dough Slammer! Keep on reading the good stuff…

2007 Fantasy Football theRUNDOWN Week 16

This Week’s Top Team: Championship Week – I feel inclined to do it up!

QB: Donovan McNabb vs. New Orleans: Just like last week, the Saints are still really brutal, and I expect Donovan to have his way with their secondary. I’m not sure what the distant future holds for McNabb, but this weekend shows promise.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Denver: denver is a terrible run defense, one of the bottom 3 in the NFL. LT is the best running back in the league. I’m not sure what his carries will look like, but I still think he’s a great start on Sunday.

RB: Earnest Graham vs. San Francisco: HE may not be a big name, but he’s a big time player, and the Bucs have been riding his hard running all the way to the playoffs. They’ll do it again on Sunday.

WR: Braylon Edwards vs. Cincinnati: I don’t see the Bengals doing much guarding of Braylon. He’s too fast and physical for them, and he’s proven to have that secondary’s number. Look for him to have a big game.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Miami: One more time, I’m going with the big receiver in New England. Brady’s close enough to the touchdown title that he might just make a run at it. Who’s his best option to get that done with? You bet.

TE: Jason Witten vs. Carolina: The Cowboys have to climb back with a good game here, don’t they? Witten is a go to guy for Romo, he’ll find him early and often.

K: David Akers vs. New Orleans: Good kicker, bad defense, in-doors. I like Akers’ chances this weekend, even though I’m terrible at picking kickers this year.

D: Jaguars vs. Oakland: Oakland is mistake prone and Jacksonville is very good. The Jaguar offense is very good at staying on the field which gives their defense ample time to rest. Good play here.

LUCKY’S Week 16 SLEEPERS

Sage Rosenfels: The Colts look like they’ve packed it in for the Playoffs, and Sage can put up good numbers in that offense, I might even start this guy in my fantasy championship.

Ron Dayne: What I said about Sage, but Dayne isn’t the biggest threat out there. But I have to give him his credit, he’s been solid when given the ball.

Frank Gore: Against the Bengals, I think Gore will get over the 100 yard plateau. He’s a very good back, he’s tough, and the Bengals don’t tackle well. Tough start for the young 49er, but he’ll be solid in this one.

Brandon Jacobs: When will the Giants realize that they need to give this kid the ball more? Jacobs is a beast, and all he does is succeed when given a high number of carries. Less Eli, more Brandon. Comprende?

Calvin Johnson: CJ is a physical freak of nature and he’s getting the majority of balls in Detroit’s offense. You have to like his chances against a Chiefs team that hasn’t been playing good football of late.

Roddy White: I expect a big bounce back game for Roddy.

Tony Scheffler: If you’ve paid attention, I like this kid a lot. I know he goes up against Denver, but there’s room in the middle of that secondary – Tony might just find it. s

Deion Branch: If running the ball isn’t going to work against the Panthers (last week) it definitely won’t work on Sunday. However, the Ravens secondary has been sketchy for a while now, and Branch could get his passes this week.

Buccaneers: I have to take the Bucs again, they had a big week against a terrible team last week, why not again against yet another horror of an NFL football team?

LUCKY’S Week 16 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Eli Manning: Ain’t nothing like watching Eli’s “Gummo” face watch his receivers drop passes – hilarious.

Clinton Portis: Welcome to Minnesota’s defensive line, the place where stud running backs come to die.

Lee Evans: The Giants do have a good pass rush, so don’t expect any deep routes from Evans on Sunday – that pretty much eliminates his whole game.

Donte Stallworth: I imagine the Patriots will show the Dolphins how much Wes Welker is worth on Sunday. That means less looks for Stallworth.