Tag Archives: Dallas Cowboys

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 11

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Well donkey balls – so much for 11 in Week 11 – but I didn’t lose 11 either, so my strong season didn’t take too big of a hit. Interested in seeing if I was helped or screwed by the idiot official that made up a rule so that the Steelers wouldn’t cover the spread? With the way I worded it, I bet you can guess – that joke call pushed me on the week – Eight wins, eight losses, but as it turns out I should have been 9-7… This is how my weekend went. 

New York Jets (+3.5) @ New England Patriots: (WINNER) Well I was right about the outcome but wrong about the way it would happen. So much for a low scoring affair, these Thursday Night games really don’t see a lot of defense played – but Kris Jenkins did do work against the Pats run game and basically shut it completely down. Hence Cassel throwing for 400 yards and 3 touchdowns. Anyway, the Jets win in overtime and I win outright. 

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons (-5.5): (LOSS) And the streak of losses begin to roll on. The Falcons didn’t really dominate on the ground, as the Broncos are really picking it up with their back-ups in there. Denver played pretty good football and Jay Cutler walked the ball down and threw a lazer for the win. Roddy White dropped a game tying touchdown pass, but it wouldn’t have covered for me anyway. The Falcons lose their first game at home, and I lose too. 

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-10): (LOSS) Interesting. This game proves that anything can happen in football, and from week to week, anything will. That’s all I have to say about this loss. 

Houston Texans (+10) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) “When Houston can run, they’ll be alright.” Admit it, this game was a lot closer than most of you thought, and that 6 point Colts win got me a win with the Texan side of this game. Houston ran all over Indy, as Steve Slaton had a huge rushing day and Ahman Green found himself in the end zone twice – probably by accident, but still. This is a game I really needed. 

Chicago Bears (+5) @ Green Bay Packers: (LOSS) The outcome of this game really surprised me. The Packers killed the Bears – but I’m not willing to say that the Pack is better than Chicago – just one of those games I think. Tough week for me and THOSE games. 

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5): (LOSS) The Chiefs actually played pretty well and had a nice chance to win this game. 4-5 dropped passes killed a normally sure handed KC team and some questionable play calling put them in a bit of a bind. They ended up losing by 10, which wasn’t enough to make me a winner, but I think the Chiefs are a solid betting group moving forward. 

Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) @ New York Giants: (LOSS)  The Giants are very good. The Ravens had played close with everyone, been in every game, and done very well against the run. The Giants basically made them look foolish, they won by 20, and this game wasn’t that close – did I mention that the 3 Giant runners did just about everything they wanted to do? Well they did – and Brandon Jacobs took his 11 carries for 77 yards and two touchdowns – that guy is a man. I lost again. 

Detroit Lions (+15) @ Carolina Panthers: (WINNER) Detroit played even better than the final score indicated, and besides the fact that they are Detroit and anything can happen, I was never worried about this cover. How bad has Jake Delhomme been lately? Luckily for him, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart both plowed past 100 yards with ease. It was a dominate ground attack by Carolina, but not enough to cover against my pick here. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3): (WINNER) The Bucs won in an ugly game. Jeff Garcia was legit, probably as accurate as he’s been all year, and the Bucs did just enough to oust the Vikings and cover for me here.

Philadelphia Eagles (-9) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (LOSS) Damn the Eagles! Damn ties! Damn Philly basically making every game a must win situation because they couldn’t take care of business against the 1-8 (now 1-8-1) Bengals. Gross game. 

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5): (WINNER) A round of applause for my man Mike Singletary. If you don’t think this guy will get his players to win, you are going to be tricked. 

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) The Cards tried to lose this one, but Kurt and Anquan and Larry Fitz were just too beastly for the Cardinals. A 26-20 win wasn’t pretty, but it was enough for the public to reap the benefits here. 

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) The Titans made it close for most of the game, but Kerry Collins looked like he had enough of 8 and 9 in the box, so he tossed more than a couple passes to Justin Gage, and the undervalued wide receiver made the most of it. The Titans won by 10 in Jacksonville – and the public rejoiced! 

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4): (LOSS 0- Kind Of) Not that Steeler bettors deserved to win this game, but they should have. Some sorry excuse for a ref took a correct call and turned it around when it didn’t matter to anybody but people trying to cover spreads, and millions of dollars went to the books – what a joke. If you saw this game, you know what I’m talking about. If you didn’t see this game, you will certainly here about an error that cost bettors millions of dollars. 

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+2): (LOSS) This game was gross. Had to stop watching it at half time and go shoot hoops with the townies. But Dallas pulled it out, despite poor performances by everyone this side of Marion Barber. (MBIII is a BEAST). The Redskins tried hard not to lose and it definitely showed in their selective play calling and lack of chances down field. This is a Dallas secondary that plays very well close to the line of scrimmage and very poorly down field. Come on Jim Zorn! 

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ Buffalo Bills: I like the Browns in this one. I think the Bills will have a hard time rushing against the Browns front line, and I think Brady Quinn gives the Browns enough accuracy to stay on the field that much longer. He didn’t look as great as everyone likes to say he did, last week against a bad Broncos defense, but he is accurate enough – and that’s huge for the Browns. This should be a close one, like most Brown and Bill games, so those 5.5 points should come in handy on Monday Night.

theRUNDOWN: Week 7

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For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. This is my Week 7 group… 

QB: Jay Cutler vs. New England: The Broncos are used to beating the Patriots and Cutler has a nice arm. Eddie Royal will be back this week and I think Cutler takes advantage of the Pats weak secondary. It was a toss up between him, Manning and Aaron Rodgers, but I’m leaning on Jay this week. 

RB: Clinton Portis vs. Cleveland: The Browns were better last week, but Portis torches everyone these days, he doesn’t discriminate. I like him to have a nice day in a close Redskins win. 

RB: Marion Barber vs. Rams: Romo’s injury means a lot more carries for Barber. Marion will torch the Rams defense and I see a multiple touchdown day for him this week. 

FLEX: Greg Jennings vs. Colts: He’s one of my favorite receivers in the league to watch, and I think he’ll do some work against the Colts. He’s very physical and all Rodgers needs to do is put the ball somewhere he can get to it. 

WR: Brandon Marshall vs. New England: If the Patriots can’t stop Vincent Jackson they can’t stop Brandon Marshall (no offense to Jackson, I think he is a very good player). Marshall is my top receiver this week. 

WR: Andre Johnson vs. Detroit: Did you see Johnson big brothering the Dolphins last week? It was awesome. Need a lot of yards Schaub? Just throw it in the direction for Johnson he’ll beast anyone around and steal the ball away from them, pop it, and go home with their lunch money. I like a guy like that, especially against the lion cubs. 

TE: Jason Witten vs. St. Louis: Good secondary match-up and the TE is the easiest guy to get the ball to for a 2nd string quarterback. Either way, Romo or Johnson, I like Witten to get the rock 5-8 times on Sunday. 

K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. Denver: Versus Denver is my new kicker treat because I can’t seem to have any success at this position. I’ll just take versus Denver and do my darnedest. 

D: Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Seattle: The Bucs defense is a stout unit, no doubt about that. The Hawks are brutal and they throw a lot. There you have it, turnovers and a low score – that equals yhatzee. 

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Matt Cassel: Against the Broncos, you bet – the Patriots will have to get their points somewhere and I’m willing to bet that Cassel plays better this week. 

Jason Campbell: I think Jason throws two touchdowns this week against the Browns, but this game will have more than a couple scores going on. Good game to play Campbell. 

Earnest Graham: Still not getting enough touches to be a sure thing, I’m willing to bet that Graham sees 10-15 against the Hawks and that will be good for 60-90 yards and probably a score.

Darren McFadden: I like McFadden against the Jets. He’s a superb gamebreaker type back and he hasn’t really busted one for a while. I think he puts up about 80 yards and a score against New York this Sunday – but the Raiders lose big again. 

Vincent Jackson: Play him while he’s hot. All he needs is targets. He’s usually bigger and faster than anyone guarding him, and Rivers has been playing well enough to make sure Vincent gets the ball. I like him over some stars against this week. 

Lance Moore: I still like Moore for one more week. 

Devin Hester: Hester didn’t get into the zone last week, but he caught enough balls (6?) and went for 90+ yards so I think he’s a great option against the Vikings. Hester is very fast and the Vikings shut down the run and are open ended in the secondary. That should mean a nice day for Devin. 

Greg Olsen: Same with Hester I think Olsen is a nice mismatch for a mediocre Vikings secondary. 

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys need to step up somewhere, and I think their elite talent on defense gets them attacking Bulger and causing turnovers. 

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Gus Frerotte: I don’t like Gus this week. He’ll turn the ball over and the Bears, in my mind, are winning this week easily.  

Willis McGahee: McGahee won’t do much – weird. Apparently Willis is off the injury report – but don’t let that excite you too much, the Ravens aren’t going to be smashing the Dolphins around this week. 

Adrian Peterson: You won’t sit him, and that’s fine, but he couldn’t really do much against the Lions or the Saints – now the Bears??? Maybe he just does what he does and goes off for 200 yards, that’s why you can’t sit him, but I predict another bad week for AP. 

Chad Johnson: So far Chad has just been the normal Chad without any big weeks. He usually goes off a couple times a season and gets some solid numbers on his side. That won’t happen this week with Fitzy throwing him the ball. 

NFL Free Picks: Week 7

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I started tough last week (4 losses to bound my morning up) but finished strong and hope to keep that mo going heading into Week 7’s games. Here’s how I see them getting figured out…

Tennessee Titans (-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs: Thanks books. The Broncos, sure, the Chiefs can magically beat a team like Denver from time to time. Denver throws the ball a lot and hardly relies on the run to even keep teams honest. Offensive football teams like that can lose to bad teams because of freakish mistakes and miscommunication. Teams that pound you into smithereens on both sides of the ball, like Tennessee, don’t lose to bad teams that don’t do anything well, like Kansas City. The Titans are fresh after coming off their bye week and I expect them to get close to a shutout in KC.

San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (+1): This one is tight, hence the pick em, but I have to take the Bills here. San Diego and Buffalo are different places to play and the Chargers will find that out promptly. It’s an early game, which means the Chargers fly to Buffalo to play at 10 am their time, which usually doesn’t bode well. The Bills aren’t a dominate team by any means, but they play sound football and have an offense that doesn’t produce many mistakes. I like Buffalo in October, like them even better at home, and like them even better early at home against a team from Cali. SO I like this play here a little bit. Still, the Chargers are showing life and they don’t have the time to mess around and lose more games. I still don’t see it from LT yet, and thus I’ll lean toward the Bills.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-3): The play here is Minnesota, but I’m going against my initial feeling and taking the Bears. I think Chicago can pass on Minnesota and I’m pretty sure that if the Vikes had trouble running on the Lions and Saints, they’ll be bottled up against the Bears. I also love betting against teams that won their game but got beat on the field of play – that’s Minnesota two weeks in a row.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The road team always wins this match-up and while it’s normally pretty close, I just don’t think the Bengals have much confidence, leadership, sense of understanding or hope. They are sending Ryan Fitzsomething to the wolves here, and while Pittsburgh has struggled a bit with injuries, it is expected that Fast Willie Parker could return for this game, and that boost alone should get the Steelers and extra touchdown. That being said they are already a touchdown better than the Bengals. Put those two together and a 28-13 game is what I expect.

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (-3): The Ravens just out-physical opponents, and that’s how they win. The new coaching staff in Miami has neutralized that problem by becoming one of the more physical teams in football, on both sides of the ball. Chad Pennington is worth 3 or 4 points over Joe Flacco, and therefor I’m taking the Dolphins. I think they are a pretty solid bet here.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3): I’m against the Saints again, and maybe it will crush me, but until they start doing better work in the red zone I have to go against them on the road against a more complete team. Unlike AP and the Vikes, I do think the Panthers will be able to run against the Saints, and remember what I said, when the Panthers can run they are a top tier team in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants (-10): Tougher call than you’d think, but I found a line that got down to 10 and thus I’ll run with New York. After playing some very good football for a few weeks straight the Giants were bound to falter a bit on the big stage. That doesn’t mean they are done. They were a little overrated, but they are still a top team in the league. I think their pressure and run-stuffing prowess will give them this game. O’Sullivan isn’t good enough to throw 30 times against the Giants and not get intercepted multiple times. Mike Martz will ignore that fact and thus lose this game by default.

New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland Raiders: Lane Kiffin’s gone, so the Raiders are going to have to prove to me that they can beat somebody without him. Didn’t work so well last week, as the Raiders looked worse than ever before. I don’t think that game is a fluke, I think the Raiders sans Kiffin are more doomed than ever. Take the Jets by a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ St. Louis Rams: Do the Cowboys lose a little bit without one of the best quarterbacks in football? You bet. Do they lose something wihtout Pacman Jones? Yep. Do they still have a considerable amount of talent that completely trumps anything the Rams have in St. Louis? Most definitely. I think the Cowboys take less chances, make fewer mistakes, and play better football in their first game without Romo and Jones. They are still loaded on the defensive side of the ball and one more offensive weapon for the Cowboys shouldn’t hurt them. I like Dallas by a touchdown on the road in the face of adversity.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Green Bay Packers: I think the Colts are the play here, even without a rushing attack to lean on. Green Bay is solid, but against a bend but don’t break defense I think they’ll have trouble. They don’t have enough of a rushing attack to make the Colts pay, and if Rodgers is throwing 40 times I see some mistakes popping up. I think this game will be quite the offensive showcase, and in such a game, I like to error on the side of one Peyton Manning.

Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans (-8.5): The Texans are good. They’ve lost a lot of games already. The Lions are bad and they will continue to lose games. I like Drew Stanton but don’t think he’ll be enough to cover this spread. Steve Slaton will be running, Matt Schaub will be throwing, and I think Kevin Walter (of all white receivers) will have a very good game at home this Sunday. I think the Texans win by 2-3 touchdowns in this one.

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5): This is the NFL and anything can happen, just like any other sport, but the Hawks are brutal right now, playing with absolutely no confidence and headed into Tampa Bay where the Bucs play stellar defense that should press Charlie Brown Frye into more than a few mistakes. The Hawks are a lost team and Tampa isn’t a heavy offensive point scorer, but they should still cover this monstrous spread. Defensively the Bucs are too consistent for Seattle to put up much more than 14 points.

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) @ Washington Redskins: The Browns were overrated to start the season and the Redskins were definitely underrated. That being said, I don’t think the current difference between these two teams is more than a touchdown. I think Washington moves the ball well, but if you can take away the run a bit they have trouble scoring. The Browns gain a little confidence back after last week’s big win, and while I do think the Skins are a better team, I think this game comes down to a field goal. Even a touchdown still gets me a win, and I am really liking that extra half a point here.

Denver Broncos (+3) @ New England Patriots: Strength versus weakness here. In a couple ways. The Broncos love to throw early and often, and deep. The Patriots are struggling most in their secondary. The Patriots can’t seem to run the ball and everyone puts pressure on them. The Broncos can’t stop the run and can’t put pressure on anyone – I guess that’s a weakness versus a weakness, but that also favors the Broncos. Without much of a rushing threat, the Patriots won’t be able to trick the Broncos into committing to the run. That means the secondary will be more clogged. The Patriots look bad, and while the Broncos have struggled the last few weeks, I see this as a very nice match-up for them.

Ten for Tuesday

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  1. Did I tell you to pick up Jamal Lewis or what? He’s got a more user friendly schedule now, and he played well against the Giants and his team is looking up. He probably got more expensive, but he might still be worth it – he could have a really nice final 2/3s of the season.

  2. Bernard Berrian – yep. BB is really fast and he’s always open. Sure, he drops some balls but he catches some too. Two straight big weeks for Berrian and I think he has his best season as a pro – so if he’s still available or if you can get him as a bonus in a trade, fell happy to do work.

  3. Yes, Braylon Edwards is just as good as you thought he was coming into the season. Those of you who traded him when he was playing poorly – hahahaha – never sell low. Those of you that pilfered the super-talented touchdown machine, good on ya – and those of you that just held on to the big receiver, patiently waiting for his value to skyrocket – you played your cards right.

  4. Does Roy Williams’ value increase? Tough call – I think it does just because he’s happier in his situation now, and while he’s shown over the years that he is a tid bit immature, he has also shown that, when happy and included, he is a damn good young receiver. He’ll be a nice addition as a #2 behind TO, and he’ll get a lot of open looks in a Cowboys offense in which defenses pay a lot of attention to TO, Witten, and Marion Barber – but Romo is out for the next 3 games, and I’m not sure Roy will be the best option during those weeks where the Cowboys will almost certainly throw less and run more.

  5. Just to let everyone know, I prepared you for Thomas Jones big days a coming – he, and the rest of the Jets, play one of the easiest schedules in football from here on out. That means less chances for Brett and more runs for the Jets running backs. This is where Jones makes his owners happy and while you might be too late to get a good deal, I don’t think trading him now is the best option. He’s got some real nice match-ups coming up.

  6. Matt Schaub is a really good fantasy quarterback. I see that he is still available in a lot of leagues, and newsflash folks, he’s better than lots of guys that are owned in more leagues than him. In 3 of his 4 starts he’s been a great starting option and I don’t think that will change. He’ll have some down weeks, this is just his second year as a starter and he was hurt a lot last season – but he’ll have 3 good games out of every 4 and with Andre Johnson out wide, they could be really big games. AJ is a beast!

  7. Despite losing Roy Williams, it seems to be a great deal for the Lions. They’ll probably start Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey, two sure-handed wideouts that can do work over the middle of the field. I actually think this is not only good for the franchise (1st, 3rd, 6th picks next draft) – but it’s good for Calvin Johnson too. CJ won’t have competition on deep balls and while he might see more double teams, he’ll have an even better season without Roy along side him.

  8. The Chiefs are so dumb. They hold onto Tony Gonzalez when a 3rd round pick was for the taking. Gonzo is really good and he’s 32, they weren’t getting anything more than that and they could have gotten help in the future. If they didn’t draft so crappy this would have been an even better deal. I guess they probably considered the fact that they’d probably reach for a DT and miss on that selection, thus there was no reason to get any pick. I thin Gonzo continues to be a solid TE even though his squad is a short one line joke.

  9. Shaun Alexander – haha – I hope he doesn’t steal end-zone looks from Portis. I don’t think he will and he shouldn’t be picked up, so let someone else make that mistake.

  10. Go RAYS, Go!!! Sorry baseball haters, I had to – gotta love them young guns in Tampa – do work sons!

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 5

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7-5-1 heading into Monday Night, I locked down yet another winning week.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: (WINNER) “The Ravens won’t be able to throw. Short rest against a super physical team after already being warn down – you bet I’ll be taking the Titans by a field goal – and I’ll love it all week long.” Well, I loved it all week long but it started to get more and more worrisome as Sunday began to eclipse – but in the end, that field goal I needed the Titans to cover came through as Tennessee had one more score at the end of the game to pull me up 3. Whew.

Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ New York Giants: (LOSER) Washington State sports = no thanks. I don’t know what’s happened to the Hawks, but they’ll need to do a lot more than beat some random bad team in the NFC to get my full confidence again – I should have known. Sorry for leading you astray on this butt kicking, the Hawks lost by a million it seemed like. 44-6 = one million in football speak.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5): (LOSER) I think this one is close – and while the Redskins as a 5 point dog always seem to have good value, I will have to go with the home team eagles this week. Philly will shut down the rushing attack from Washington, and that will put a lot of pressure on Jason Campbell.” Okay, the Eagles did put some pressure on Campbell to start the game, but their run defense that had been stellar was torched by Clinton Portis. Portis was in full beast mode, showing hulk strength, busting tackles and basically carrying the Redskins to victory. The Eagles were up early and I was smiling, but Philly didn’t do anything offensively, and the Redskins took full advantage. Washington is really impressing me.

San Diego Chargers (-6) @ Miami Dolphins: (LOSER) “I seem to be the only “expert” taking the Chargers this weekend, and I can see why the Dolphins are looking like a good value at home – but I have a feeling the Chargers will get a lot out of their rushing attack this week, and I don’t think you see the Fin running backs doing work like they did last week. Tough call here, certainly, but at just under a touchdown I’ll take the road favorites here.” Soooo… Haha, apparently the “experts” slapped me around on this one. San Diego came out a little stale, and Miami showed a couple folks that their win over New England wasn’t as flukey as it seemed. Can Sparano and Parcells really give this bad of a team this much confidence? It seems like it. I was DEAD WRONG about this one, and even though I thought it’d be close, the Dolphins are just much more physical than I thought. I don’t think they’ll sleep on anyone else this season, but they’ll continue to be a tough out.

Chicago Bears (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) 34-7… It doesn’t pay to be a Lion fan right now. And don’t get me wrong, it rarely has. The Bears embarrassed the Lions in all aspects of the game, making me look smart with my road favorite pick here.

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (-7): (LOSER) Well, Aaron Rodgers played, had a pretty damn good game, and the Packers still go to 2-3 on the season, tallying up their 3rd loss in as many contests. It looks like these young teams with new coaches are doing something right these days – maybe a couple of these franchises (Miami, Atlanta, Washington) are turning the corner. I definitely like what I see from Matt Ryan and the young Falcons – going into Green Bay and man-handling the Packers up front is big step forward.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans: (WINNER) “This is a very tough one for me, but I don’t see Indy coming off a bye and losing to a Texans team to go 1-3 on the season. I’m talking pure will to win here.” What else could you call what happened on Sunday in Houston? Will to win. The Colts snuck out another one, and while they could easily be 0-4, they’re through the first quarter of the season at 2-2. Houston will get it together, but they’ll have a tough couple days thinking about this one getting away. I lucked out with this cover. Houston dominated the Colts for much of this game. 21 points in 4 minutes got me a one point win – you don’t want much of that business going on here, not unless heart failure is your ideal way to go.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers (-9.5): (WINNER) “The Chiefs won’t be able to run on Carolina like they did on Denver. That ruins their chances at a victory right there.” Larry Johnson, the AFC’s leading rusher coming in, had 2 yards on 7 carries and the Panthers shutout the Chiefs in dominating fashion. Got this one right on the button.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos (-3): (PUSH) “This one is very tough for me. I know the Bucs are one of the more underrated football teams in the game, and Denver’s explosion as an offensive masterpiece teaming with a terrible defensive front, has their value at an all time low – but I like the Broncos in a gut-feeling type situation.” Well, it was close, and the gut-feeling had some kind of feeling going on. In the end this low scoring affair ended with Splinter’s Broncos up 3 and pushing me to a tie.

Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals (pk): (WINNER)  “I’m taking the Cardinals here, and with or without Anquan Boldin I’ll be sticking with it. I think the Bills are ready for a loss and I think the Cardinals (at home) are better than the Bills (on the road). The highs and lows will even out with a nice comfortable Cardinal win on Sunday.” Well, the highs and lows definitely evened out. It didn’t hurt that Trent Edwards went down early with a concussion, and even though Losman looked good throwing the ball a couple times, his turnover prone quarterbacking meant the end for Buffalo. Arizona played well, stuffing the run pretty good and constantly attacking on offense. All in all, I was right. Ha,

New England Patriots (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers: (WINNER)  “I’m not good for or against Mike Martz. Let’s make that clear. Over his years, where ever he goes, I have trouble reading his teams. That’s my precursor warning here. Another warning, most of the public (almost 70% at the books I watch) is rolling with the Patriots on this one, and some respectable “experts” are taking the 49ers as a good value to cover at home. So there you have it, you’ve been warned. Now here’s the kicker, I love the Patriots in this one. The 49ers aren’t good, and they don’t do what would help them most in this game, run the ball. A bunch of really competitive hard workers were made a laughing stock in Week 3 as the Patriots D got their aces handed to them by Ronnie Brown and company. That won’t go over well, and after two weeks to dwell on that kind of business I think the Pats come out and wallop the 49ers – I love them in Week 5. So, you’ve been warned and I’ve predicted an outcome that mocks experts and my Mike Martz struggle. If you’re with me on this one, you’re seeing the Pats winning by a couple touchdowns in San Francisco.” (YEP) – The 49ers had a chance if they gave Frank Gore about 15 more carries – as it turned out, they just threw the ball a lot and put up their fair share of turnovers. That will lose you any game against the Pats. Yay me, boo Mike Martz!

Cincinnati Bengals (+17.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: (WINNER) This one was close, once again proving that even bad teams in the NFL shouldn’t be underdogs by 17 points. Ridiculous. The Bengals were even tougher than the final score insists, as a late touchdown put the Cowboys up 9, and before that Carson Palmer and company were a two point conversion away from tying this thing late in the 4th. Good value, good win, this one made me a sure thing winner in Week 5.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4): (LOSER) The final score was close, and Jacksonville was up one late in the game, but the Steelers really came out fired up for this one, out-toughing the Jaguars from the get go. Pittsburgh is an interesting team that I’m not reading real well, no question about that. Their run-defense played inspired football handing me my 6th loss on the week.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: I won this game, and I have to say, despite losing the yardage battle, and feeling that I was going to lose the game all night, and watching Drew Brees pass at will, I was really happy when Martin Gramatica came in to put the Saints up three. That basically gives me a win. This was definitely and interesting one, and I’m not sure I picked the right side on this game, but I did come out on top, bringing me to 8-5-1 on the week, three more games over .500. I’ll take a win any way I can get it.

NFL Free Picks: Week 5

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After a .500 Week 4, I am still in the green headed into the nitty gritty portion of the season. That’s right, bankrolls are made during the Week 5 – Week 10 section of the season. The lucky ones that think their brilliance has built them a huge lead begin to struggle while the wily old veterans do their best work. Which one will it be for me? Well, we shall see. 14 big games to choose from, take em all or take the best value, here are my Week 5 picks.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens won’t be able to throw. They still aren’t able to pass, as they just don’t take enough chances, and they went into overtime with a very physical Steeler team in Pittsburgh on Monday Night. Short rest against a super physical team after already being warn down – you bet I’ll be taking the Titans by a field goal – and I’ll love it all week long.

Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ New York Giants: This game has stayed at (-9) on BetJamaica, and with that value I have to take the Hawks. Seattle doesn’t play their best football on the road, no doubt about that, but after struggling to start the season, the Hawks don’t have time to play crappy road ball. I like the Giants to win this one, but New York hasn’t proven to be a good value as a big favorite. Their style of football equals a lot of close games, and I expect this one to be around a touchdown. At -7, it’s more of a toss up, but I’d still take the Hawks there.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5): Thin this one is close. The Eagles are, in my opinion, one of the best teams in all the land, but the Redskins are no slouch. I still see a bit of a letdown from the young guys on Washington’s squad after a big win in Dallas. Philadelphia will likely get Brian Westbrook back this week, and while the Redskins as a 5 point dog always seem to have good value, I will have to go with the home team eagles this week. Philly will shut down the rushing attack from Washington, and that will put a lot of pressure on Jason Campbell- I like the kid, but he’s not ready to be the reason Washington beats Philly.

San Diego Chargers (-6) @ Miami Dolphins: I seem to be the only “expert” taking the Chargers this weekend, and I can see why the Dolphins are looking like a good value at home – but I have a feeling the Chargers will get a lot out of their rushing attack this week, and I don’t think you see the Fin running backs doing work like they did last week. San Diego gets a couple guys back on their starting defense this week, and they’ll be solid against Miami’s run. Tough call here, certainly, but at just under a touchdown I’ll take the road favorites here.

Chicago Bears (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions: I’m not ready to fully buy into Chicago just yet, but I’ll take them at just over a field goal against the Lions. Things have to be looking up for the Lions now that their doink of a GM is out of town, but that won’t instantly give them field credit. The Bears should be able to run all over the Lions, and if the Bears are running freely they are in for an auto-win. I like Chicago here, as they are too physical and too defensive for these little lion cubs.

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (-7): I like the Packers in this one. It’s possible, that after a really good start, the Packers got overrated. I understand that, and I even agree with it. However, they are now 2-2 and with the Falcons coming to Lambeau I don’t see they faltering to 2-3. A home game against a low-end Falcons team is just what the Packer ordered. Green Bay’s rushing attack will be better, and a lot will go into stopping Mike Turner and Jerious Norwood. I don’t think Matt Ryan beats the Packers – I’ll take them at -7.

**** – I found out this Thursday morning that Aaron Rodgers is very unlikely to play in this weeks game. I had believed that he would definitely suit up for this one. While that doesn’t ruin Green Bay’s chances, it certainly hinders them. I have to stick with this pick, but based on this knowledge I wouldn’t take Green Bay at anything lower than -3, which you might be able to get.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans: This is a very tough one for me, but I don’t see Indy coming off a bye and losing to a Texans team to go 1-3 on the season. I’m talking pure will to win here. The Colts as a field goal favorite always looks pretty good, and while I’m a huge Texan guy I just don’t see them as a field goal underdog to Indy as good value. Peyton, with a week to heal and to get more comfortable with his offensive line, should look a lot better. I like the Colts in Houston.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers (-9.5): The Chiefs won’t be able to run on Carolina like they did on Denver. That ruins their chances at a victory right there. KC is coming off a huge win so a let down is a good chance bet right here. Carolina is at least 10 points better than KC. Carolina is good. KC is bad. The Panthers will be able to run, and like I said before, if they can do that they are a top-notch football team in this league. Take the Panthers, and do it with a smile.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos (-3): This one is very tough for me. I know the Bucs are one of the more underrated football teams in the game, and Denver’s explosion as an offensive masterpiece teaming with a terrible defensive front, has their value at an all time low – but I like the Broncos in a gut-feeling type situation. I think Denver can score on any defense, even a Buccaneer group that shows strength in all areas. I don’t think Denver will turn the ball over like they did in a flukey loss to Kansas City, and I think that blow up is the beast that has this game at just -3. A field goal is right at my cap zone, so like i said, this one is tough. But pushing me over the edge is Denver’s air attack and their home field advantage. I’ll ride the Broncos.

Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals (pk): I’m taking the Cardinals here, and with or without Anquan Boldin I’ll be sticking with it. I think the Bills are ready for a loss and I think the Cardinals (at home) are better than the Bills (on the road). I think Arizona, a tough run defense, has the advantage in this match-up because of their ability to put some pressure on the ball and make Buffalo beat them through the air. The Bills have had some nice luck riding their undefeated streak, but that has to end some time, and there is not better place than on the road against a team that got embarrassed last week as Brett and the Jets put up nearly 50 points on them. The highs and lows will even out with a nice comfortable Cardinal win on Sunday.

New England Patriots (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers:  I’m not good for or against Mike Martz. Let’s make that clear. Over his years, where ever he goes, I have trouble reading his teams. That’s my precursor warning here. Another warning, most of the public (almost 70% at the books I watch) is rolling with the Patriots on this one, and some respectable “experts” are taking the 49ers as a good value to cover at home. So there you have it, you’ve been warned. Now here’s the kicker, I love the Patriots in this one. The 49ers aren’t good, and they don’t do what would help them most in this game, run the ball. A bunch of really competitive hard workers were made a laughing stock in Week 3 as the Patriots D got their aces handed to them by Ronnie Brown and company. That won’t go over well, and after two weeks to dwell on that kind of business I think the Pats come out and wallop the 49ers – I love them in Week 5. So, you’ve been warned and I’ve predicted an outcome that mocks experts and my Mike Martz struggle. If you’re with me on this one, you’re seeing the Pats winning by a couple touchdowns in San Francisco.

Cincinnati Bengals (+17.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: I think Palmer will play. I hate the Bengals, but the Cowboys aren’t a 17.5 point favorite with any value. They allow too many big plays through the air, and with two dynamic receivers in Cinci, ready to attack a big stage in Dallas, I like the underdogs to cover here. Remember, even if Dallas wins this one by a couple touchdowns the Bengals cover. I like that chance.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4): I promised myself I wouldn’t be taking the Ravens or the Steelers after watching them crash into each other play after play on Monday NIght. It’s a short week for the Steelers, just like the Ravens, and they are headed into a tough physical match-up for the second week in a row. I think Garrard will be better through the air in this one, and I don’t think Pittsburgh will be able to take advantage of a down year on the front line for the Jaguars. This should be a higher scoring game than many expect, but the Jags by a touchdown or two wouldn’t surprise me.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: The Vikings are better than the Saints – they get Bryant McKinnie back after a four game suspension – they will be able to run circles around New Orleans – Gus should be okay, but even if he isn’t, I still like Tarvaris Jackson to win this game on the road. Anything else? Well, New Orleans will be passing the ball a lot, and while that gives them a chance, it also leaves a lot up for grabs. Expect the Vikings to grab some of those ups and take this one easily.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 3

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It wasn’t beautiful, that’s for sure, I lost some close ones and killed it on most of the beatdowns – I say most, because lord knows I didn’t expect the Patriots to get whacked by the Dolphins. Anyway, I was 8-7 headed into Monday Night Football – and since I felt like sharing this is the review.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons (-4): (WINNER) Turner went for over 100 yards with 3 touchdowns to his name. The kid is for real. If you still don’t believe you must be drunk. The Chiefs couldn’t stay up with the Falcons offensive attack, even thought Larry Johnson put up some nice numbers of his own. Falcons at 2-1… Nice.

Oakland Raiders (+10.5) @ Buffalo Bills: (WINNER) “I think Oakland is better than many give them credit for, and the Bills aren’t quite the 10.5 point powerhouse at home. Take the points and the Raiders here. Expect JaMarcus Russell to have a two touchdown game, and the Raiders to stay close in Buffalo.” Well, the Raiders didn’t run it that well, but JaMarcus did have his two touchdown game, one rushing – one passing, and the Raiders were a last second field goal away from ruining my survivor pool after just 3 weeks. But, the Bills pulled it out, and while my survivor streak lives on, I also get a nice win here.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-5): (WINNER) “I don’t think Houston’s run defense can slow down the Titans rushing attack enough to cover in Tennessee.” Honestly, Houston’s run defense was decent. They allowed two rushing touchdowns, but holding the Titans to 150 yards on 36 carries isn’t that bad. But Matt Schaub didn’t have his A game going. He threw 3 interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, and the Texans didn’t stand a chance against a very good Titans defense. When will Houston get an offensive line that can protect a quarterback?

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants (-13): (LOSS) “Until the Bengals show me that they are more together than a bucket of busted Legos, I’m not even considering taking them at anything less than +17.” Alright, now that the Bengals have showed me something (though they are still 0-3 because of some stone cold heroic throws from Eli Manning) I will start considering them against the spread. The Giants pulled out an overtime victory (thought I was rooting hard against them because of survivor pool purposes) but the Bengals covered easily. This is the Bengals team everyone expected. They might have thrown up a fluke good game against a good team, but I have a feeling they’ll get it together now and be competitive. Still, I lost.

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) @ Washington Redskins: (LOSS) “I understand that the NFC East hasn’t lost a game out of their own conference this season. It’s only been two weeks, but it is definitely the scariest conference in football.” Well, the NFC East still hasn’t lost a game out of their conference so far this season. The Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, and Redskins all did damage against their respective opponents. The Cardinals were just another team in the NFC East warpath. Washington won by a touchdown and gave me another L.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-12.5): (LOSSSSS!!!!) “This is going to be one of those Patriotic blowouts. Miami is still one of the worst teams in football and despite Tom Brady’s absence, the Patriots are still one of the best.” Hmmmm…. Have I been tricked? Have we been absolutely April fooled? I’d like to think not. In fact, all teams are subject to a bad game. The Patriots just happened to have one of their worst games ever and Ronnie Brown was a man possessed on Sunday (the cat was responsible for 5 touchdowns – dirty). I lost this one, sure, but I have to think this loss gives the Patriots some nice value down next week – unless of course the Jets are much worse than we all thought (we’ll see Monday Night).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ Chicago Bears: (WINNER) “I know the Bears are 2-0, but I still don’t see them as a good team. Maybe that changes this week if they can fend off the Bucs, a solid team all around, but my bet is that doesn’t happen.” A couple things happened in this contest: 1, The Bears did prove to me that they are a solid team – a group I have greatly underrated to this point, their defense is good enough to allow their offense to keep running the ball, and Matt Forte is a beast – they’ll be in almost every game they play. 2, the Bucs couldn’t run the ball, but they were good enough to realize that and take what the Bears gave them. Brian Griese should never have 400+ passing yards, heck, 300 is a stretch – but the Bears wouldn’t let the Bucs run and so Griese just passed – that shows me that they will be a force in the NFC South. They aren’t one dimensional anymore.

Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3): (WINNER) “I don’t see Carolina’s rushing attack working too well in Minnesota, and I do think their offensive attack and winning chances depend on that. Gus Frerotte starts this week in Minnesota, so the Panthers will have more to worry about through the air. We’ll see, but I have to believe that the Vikings don’t start the season 0-3. Take the Vikes to get their first win and by just enough to cover at home.” The Vikings won by 10, and most of that W was because the Panthers couldn’t run the ball. It didn’t matter who was toting the rock for the Panthers, they couldn’t do anything against that ferocious defensive line in Minnesota. 1-2 is much better than 0-3, just ask the Browns.

St. Louis Rams (+11) @ Seattle Seahawks: (LOSS) Alright, I’m off the Rams. Right now, this team has to be one of the worst professional football teams I’ve seen in a long time. The Dolphins last season? No way – they were decent. Everyone aside from Tory Holt looks terrible in St. Louis. That Steven Jackson cat that just pulled in all that dough? He skips around in the backfield like a damn jumping jack, never attacking the line with any force whatsoever. Killing me. Bulger? Please. The offensive line – they are probably most of the reason for Bulger and Jackson playing like scared mice. I was DEAD wrong about this one, and I apologize completely.

Detroit Lions (+4) @ San Francisco 49ers: (LOSS) Boy, if there wasn’t a team from St. Louis I would absolutely hammer the Lions right now. Detroit plays like every opponent is tougher than they are. They can’t stop anyone – just like Mike Ditka said on Sunday morning. Ditka was right, the Lions defense is abysmal… Someone give Matt Millen another year at the helm of this beast!

New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos (-4.5): (LOSS) Absolutely screwed! That’s right, you can see this game a couple ways – either the Denver Broncos should have lost against a last second field goal, or the way I see it. If Denver just runs the ball and the clock goes down, then they kick a field goal to go up 5. But no… Splinter has to get cute with his little Ninja Horsies, and Scheffler fumbles the ball, and now New Orleans has a chance. I should have covered here – that was a load of BS. Not only that but Splinter still gets the win for his Broncos and everyone isn’t killing him all over national TV. Last week he pulls a stunt and gets a win for it, this week his dumb play backfires and he still gets a win. Oh, and I lose! DAMN IT! (Sorry, I’m a little frustrated with this outcome)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3): (WINNER) Let me say that I am stunned the Eagles iced the Steelers like this without Westy for most of the game. The best player on the field goes down early, after just 5 carries for 12 yards, and the Eagles D up tough, sacking Big Ben like it was their job, even knocking the big cat out of the game late. The Eagles didn’t put up a gaggle of yards or touchdowns, but they did what they needed to do and got a big win against a tough AFC team.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) “Bob Sanders’ injury wins me over to the dogs in this one. I think the Jaguars will run all over the Colts on Sunday. This is a pretty big game for both teams, and Jacksonville has looked anything but solid thus far, but my instinct is to trust my gut, and my gut tells me that Jacksonville has been playing well below their talent level, and that will stop now. At 0-2 there’s not much room to mess around, and I don’t imagine they’ll come out throwing all over Indy. Maurice Jones Drew should get 15-20 carries and Fred Taylor will get his touches as well. If that happens, and I believe it will, the Jaguars and Colts will both be sitting at 1-2 after Week 3.” I just quoted everything I said in my picks column because it worked perfectly in this game.

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: (LOSS) (LOSS) (LOSS) I’ll take the hit for this one. Up at half I thought the Browns would come out and shut down the Ravens. I was wrong. I was wrong about a lot in this game. I would like to say this once again, in case everyone is missing the link, this Browns team is EXACTLY like the Saints from last year. Right?

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Green Bay Packers: (WINNER)  The best team in football beat a very good team in Green Bay on Sunday Night. Unless the Cowboys really stumble, they look like one hell of a team to beat.


NFL Free Picks: Week 3

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Two weeks down, 15 to go. That’s right, just a sliver of the NFL season has gone down, and already people are saying teams are in trouble. I’ll tell you one guy not in trouble, that’s me. I haven’t killed it with any undefeated weeks or anything, but two straight winners and a 19-11-1 record stares at me when I look in the mirror, and that’s not a bad way to start. Let’s see if I can make it 3 for 3 with this week’s free picks… Enjoy! Oh, and feel free to donate if I make you some dough. Ha.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons (-4): This line has to be climbing up, as the Chiefs are likely to start Tyler Thigpen at quarterback and they are going up against a better all around team in Atlanta. The Chiefs can’t stop the run, and Atlanta is going to hand the ball off 40 times this weekend. That doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs attempts to get that first win of the season. KC isn’t a good road team, they aren’t a good team in the first place, and they have a bad match-up against a strong running team this week. Take Atlanta.

Oakland Raiders (+10.5) @ Buffalo Bills: Oakland’s defense has shown me that they are solid. Sure, Jay Cutler carved them up, but who isn’t that guy destroying? Oakland can run the ball effectively and has a quarterback that can really fire a pass if need be. I think Oakland is better than many give them credit for, and the Bills aren’t quite the 10.5 point powerhouse at home. Take the points and the Raiders here. Expect JaMarcus Russell to have a two touchdown game, and the Raiders to stay close in Buffalo.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-5): I don’t think Houston’s run defense can slow down the Titans rushing attack enough to cover in Tennessee. Houston is in a tough spot having to go heads up against the Steelers last week, missing a home game against Baltimore, and then walking into Tennessee to see what they can muster against a very good TItans defense. I like the Texans, but see this as a tough spot for them. Look for Kerry Collins to do just enough, get the ball to Justin Gage and Algae Crumpler, and let Chris Johnson do work on Houston’s front 7.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants (-13): Until the Bengals show me that they are more together than a bucket of busted Legos, I’m not even considering taking them at anything less than +17. Carson Palmer hasn’t gotten the time of day from his offensive line, and receivers seem to be running bad routes. New York’s pass rush won’t help his cause, that’s for sure. I bet he’s sweating bullets just thinking about Justin Tuck and company. The Giants have impressed me thus far, and while I don’t think they are the best team in the league, certainly not as good as they’ve played, they should still dominate a BAD Cincinnati defense and hold that stagnant offense in check.

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) @ Washington Redskins: I understand that the NFC East hasn’t lost a game out of their own conference this season. It’s only been two weeks, but it is definitely the scariest conference in football. Still, the Redskins had to pull some magic tricks to break off a win against the Saints last week, so much so that I’m betting not much momentum rides into this week’s home tilt against the Redskins. Arizona has played frighteningly good defense thus far, and that athletic secondary should be able to slow down Zorn’s west coast passing attack. Washington will find it hard to slow down Kurt Warner and company without a strong pass rush. If the Cardinals can keep Jason Taylor out of the backfield, and double teams will help, they should have plenty of time to pick apart the Skins all day long. Take the road dogs here.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-12.5): This is going to be one of those Patriotic blowouts. Miami is still one of the worst teams in football and despite Tom Brady’s absence, the Patriots are still one of the best. Miami allows big plays in the secondary, and they don’t have a stout rush defense either. It may be an awkward group of backs for New England, but Sammy Morris, LaMont Jordan, and Kevin Faulk will have answers on the ground. I’m betting on New England feeling free and easy after taking down the Jets last week, and parlaying that into a big offensive day for Randy Moss and company.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ Chicago Bears: I know the Bears are 2-0, but I still don’t see them as a good team. Maybe that changes this week if they can fend off the Bucs, a solid team all around, but my bet is that doesn’t happen. I like Tampa to effectively run the ball against a Bears front 7 that hasn’t given up much on the ground this season. Brian Griese has his ups and downs, but he has what it takes to find open receivers and speedy backs. I’m guessing this game is one of those 13-7 contests, or maybe it even gets to the 30’s, but a high scoring affair it won’t be. Tampa should shut down the Bears solid rushing game and do enough to pull the slight upset in Chicago.

Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3): Carolina sure has found a way to win the first few weeks, and now they get back their own personal Vikings killer, Steve Smith. That’s right, Steve does work against the Minnesota boys and he’s back from his two game hiatus. But I don’t think that will be enough. I don’t see Carolina’s rushing attack working too well in Minnesota, and I do think their offensive attack and winning chances depend on that. Gus Frerotte starts this week in Minnesota, so the Panthers will have more to worry about through the air. We’ll see, but I have to believe that the Vikings don’t start the season 0-3. Take the Vikes to get their first win and by just enough to cover at home.

St. Louis Rams (+11) @ Seattle Seahawks: Please. I know the Rams have been bad, but what have the Hawks done to gather an 11 point margin here? Both teams are winless, so there will be an old fashioned struggle to get things on the right track. I like St. Louis’s offense better right now, and no, Koren Robinson’s signing didn’t push me over to Seattle’s side. If the Hawks win it will be there defense that makes it so. My motto there is this, if you are betting on a defense to win you a football game, never ever bet on that team if the spread is bigger than a touchdown. The Rams will score and the Hawks will be lucky if they get out of Seattle with their first win.

Detroit Lions (+4) @ San Francisco 49ers: This game comes down to a couple things. A- the Lions are winless. B- Detroit’s players hate Mike Martz more than Mike Martz wants to prove his worth. And C- these are the freaking San Francisco 49ers and never should you ever take them as a favorite. Neither team is worth their weight in copper, but Detroit has more to play for, more to lose, and a better team than does San Fran – so I’ll go with the road dogs once again.

New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos (-4.5): New Orleans isn’t as good as people think they are – Denver is. The Broncos may have gotten a gift last week when Cutler fumbled away their chances only to get a piggy back from Ed Hachuli, a second chance, and a game winning touchdown and ballsy two point conversion to beat the Chargers – but what many people will forget is how the Broncos pretty much handles San Diego. That’s right, it’s not always the case that points tell the entire story, and this was one of those instances. The Chargers were magic late, and that got the game back on their side, but the Broncos were the better team on Sunday. That said, they are much better than a speed bump team from the NFC South. Take the Broncos to do whatever they want at home against New Orleans – pass, run, lateral – I don’t care, they are going to succeed. Take Splinter’s little ninja horses to cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3): Everyone and their mother seems to like the road dogs in this one, but I’m not so sold. Pittsburgh is a solid group, but Philly can really play some ball, and I think they should be getting more points at home against a Steelers unit that is a little dinged up. Ben Roethlisberger will have trouble dealing with the Eagles pass rush, especially considering that his shoulder is burning as I write this. The Eagles look very confident and though they did get some help to stay close to Dallas (thank you Tony Romo), they also showed their dynamic flavor in a big NFC East showdown last Monday night. Westbrook will be able to do enough on the ground to keep the Steelers honest, and that’s not a good sign for Pittsburgh’s secondary. In a tight match, I’m taking the Eagles by a touchdown.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts: Bob Sanders’ injury wins me over to the dogs in this one. I think the Jaguars will run all over the Colts on Sunday. This is a pretty big game for both teams, and Jacksonville has looked anything but solid thus far, but my instinct is to trust my gut, and my gut tells me that Jacksonville has been playing well below their talent level, and that will stop now. At 0-2 there’s not much room to mess around, and I don’t imaging they’ll come out throwing all over Indy. Maurice Jones Drew should get 15-20 carries and Fred Taylor will get his touches as well. If that happens, and I believe it will, the Jaguars and Colts will both be sitting at 1-2 after Week 3.

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: Free Money! It’s amazing that the Browns love has fallen this fast. I mean, even I was laughing at the “Super Bowl” chances given to the Brownies, but a 2 point dog to the rookie led Ravens? Please. Like Matt Ryan, it will be soon that Flacco learns the ups and DOWNS of the NFL. Cleveland lost a couple tough games to start the season, playing a great Cowboys team and taking a tough 10-6 game on the chin against a very good Steelers team – there will be better days, like, umm, Sunday – for example.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Green Bay Packers: I hate to bet against Green Bay here, but even more so I hate to go against the Cowboys, a team I think is better than any other in football. My bet is this; the Cowboys will put a lot of pressure on Aaron Rodgers and really stymie the Packers rushing attack. Those two things will get them just over the top for a touchdown victory on the road against a very good Packers team. I also think the Packers run defense isn’t as good as it was last season. If that assessment is true, Marion Barber and Felix Jones will do some damage on the tundra in Wisconsin. Take the Cowboys here, the best team in football.

New York Jets (+10) @ San Diego Chargers: Alright, so the Chargers have been screwed around in Weeks 1 and 2, losing a pair of games on touchdowns in the last 30 seconds. They are definitely the best 0-2 team in football and they will win this week against the Jets. I’m just betting on this game being one of the 17% in which the team that wins doesn’t cover. Brett Favre will do enough in his 3rd game to hit the Chargers where it hurts, their secondary. I expect this to be Brett’s best game in Jet-green, and while I’m thinking the Chargers see the luck turn and win, I do think Brett has a chance. That chance will be good enough to stick within a touchdown and a field goal of the Chargers on Monday Night Football.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 2

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Two weeks, two winners. That’s right, for the second straight week I picked every game the NFL had to offer and came out on top of the books. A little luck, a lot of plusses and minuses to consider, and here I am, 8 games over .500 after two weeks. My first week, 10-6, my second week, 9-5-1. That puts me at 19-11-1. This is how Week 2 went wild.

Oakland Raiders (+4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) “I think the Raiders will go back to the drawing board and see that running the ball will work for them.” Fargas got hurt, but he was off to a nice start before he went out. McFadden rushed for 160 yards and Michael Bush toted the rock for 90 yards himself. Needless to say, the Raiders relied on the run and it carried them to an easy victory over the Chiefs. I WIN!

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-3): (PUSH) Not much to say here, it was a tough game to cap and this is why. The Panthers aren’t a great home team, they don’t play well when favored, but the Bears are just the Bears, and not much to be worried about. It came down to the wire, but Jonathan Stewart’s touchdown put the Panther’s up 3 to stay and I pushed.

New Orleans Saints (+1) @ Washington Redskins: (LOSS) Up 24-15 going into the 4th quarter, the Saints were looking like a nice selection right around a pick’em. But the Redskins fought hard at home, and Jim Zorn got his first victory of the season. New Orleans was back to running the ball very poorly and Washington threw all over the Saints’ secondary as Jason Campbell put up over 300 yards through the air. The Redskins scored 14 unanswered in the 4th and took home the win.

Indianapolis Colts (pk) @ Minnesota Vikings: (WINNER) “I like the Vikings to exploit the Colts run defense, but this game comes down to the wire and Peyton Manning, with one regular season game under his belt, can do enough against a suspect Viking pass defense to take this game on the road.” As it was Adrian Peterson went off for 160 rushing yards but it wasn’t enough as Peyton lead his squad down the field to win this one late. Peyton still has his rust, and it might not be warn off by next Sunday, but he had enough to make my prediction ring true, 300+ yards for the dumpy faced Colt QB.

New York Giants (-8) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) The Giants seemingly did anything they wanted to the Rams, and this wasn’t a close contest at all. St. Louis looks really bad, and I have to believe that Scott Linnehan’s future is starting to look grim in St. Louis. Eli followed the lead of his fellow poo-faced brother and really tossed the ball around the Rams secondary, putting up 40+ points on the Rams to show what the Eagles did wasn’t a fluke.

Buffalo Bills (+6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) “without three of their starting offensive linemen, the Jaguars just don’t seem like a good favorite to bet on. I think the Jags will be better against the Bills than the Hawks were, but Buffalo’s physical play is a nice match-up for a physical Jags team. There aren’t many teams that will try to out-tough the Jaguars, and the Bills might just do that in Week 2. Take the points in this battle.” This one was close, and even with a poor offensive effort the Jags were leading headed down to the final minutes. But, Trent Edwards showed what he can do and orchestrated a nice game winning touchdown drive to end this thing. This was a solid bet.

Atlanta Falcons (+9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (LOSS) I still think I capped this game right. The Bucs were definitely out to make Matt Ryan beat them, and he couldn’t do anything close to that. Tampa stacked their line against the run and shut down Week 1’s rushing leader, Michael Turner. Earnest Graham looked legit again in less than 20 carries of action, and the Brian Griese led Bucs iced the Falcons and just wouldn’t allow touchdowns. Anyway, I’ll take the loss here.

San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) What can I say, when it rains, it floods the Hawks, that’s for sure. As if the fact that they were starting Logan Payne at receiver wasn’t bad enough, the Hawks lost Payne to a season ending knee injury in the first quarter. Ridiculous. I read somewhere, “Was Brett Favre on the cover of Madden ’09 or was it the Seahawks receiving corps?” Good accurate question there. Seattle still had a chance late, but really, they looked bad throughout this contest. THe only guys that looked good were Julius Jones and John Carlson. Either way, the 49ers won and my +220 bet I made felt really good when that game winning field goal went through the uprights. Your +9 looked brilliant throughout I’m sure.

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals (-6): (WINNER) “I expect Kurt Warner to air it out a little more against a suspect Dolphins secondary, as his two receivers look to have big games. The Cardinals are the best team in the NFC West, and while that doesn’t say much, it does mean they can handle the Dolphins with ease.” Warner was 19/24 for 361 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bolding caught 6 balls for 140 yards and 3 touchdowns. Larry Fitzgerald caught 6 balls for 153 yards. Seems like I took care of this game before it happened. Gotta love that.

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans (-4): No game this week – will be played on November 9th.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (LOSS) The Steelers looked like they dominated this game, but they never scored again after Hines Ward’s touchdown, and 10 was enough to keep the Browns winless to start the season. Ben’s shoulder hurt a bit and it showed, as the Steelers just did their best to run out the clock. I really feel like I got a raw deal here, but since I did pretty well this week I’ll just shrug it off.

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) “Come on, this seems like an insulting line. This is definitely one of my picks of the week.” This game was easy to pick, but then the Lions fought back, but they then decided to be the Lions again and lose by a 48-25 margin. Brilliant. This was basically free money, and I hope you cashed in.

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals:  (WINNER) “Free Money – even with Kerry Collins at quarterback. The Titans and the Bengals are on a different level, same league, but different level. For example, the Titans have 11 starting defensive players that can really tackle. The Bengals have one, and he’s a rookie. The Titans have a solid offensive attack despite quarterback trouble -the Bengals have a talented quarterback with previous success that looks lost because of how bad his offense is. Things are going bad in Cinci, and a Titan beat down isn’t going to make them feel any better.” Uh, yeah. When I said “free money” i meant “free money”.

San Diego Chargers (pk) @ Denver Broncos: (LOSS) The Chargers didn’t deserve to win this game despite the terrible call that handed the Broncos a victory late. That may sound weird, but the Broncos dominated this contest, and if it weren’t for some amazing plays down the stretch the Chargers wouldn’t have been close. Shanny’s balls to go for it to win the game… priceless. I lose this one, but it was as close as it gets, no doubt about that.

New England Patriots (+2.5) @ New York Jets: (WINNER) “At least there was something good out of Tom Brady going down with an injury – we get this spread to play with. I’ll take the Patriots as a dog against the Jets and laugh it all the way to the bank.” I am still giggling a bit, as the Patriots made Brett Favre’s addition look like a meaningless free agent signing. That’s right folks, even without our favorite quarterback, the Patriots are still one of the best teams in the league. Viva la free money!

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5): (LOSS)  Wow. What a game. The Eagles held the lead after a couple Cowboy mistakes early, but after McNabb put the ball on the turf in the 4th quarter, the Cowboys took the lead for good. A late drive couldn’t cut it for the Eagles, but they did cover, making me a loser for the 5th time this week. Still, after 15 games I was 9-5-1, not too shabby.

Ten for Tuesday: Week 2

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Yeah, Week 1 is officially in the books and I’ve got 10 big ones for Tuesday’s column. Some surprised, some disappointed, and then their were guys that had my jaw dropping – both good and bad. Read up and see who else I liked besides the stellar rookie wideout in Denver, Eddie Royal.

  1. Thomas Brady: I’m not sure if his name is Thomas, but it sounded more formal. Now that he’s done for the year and the Patriots Championship dreams are crushed, I figure using the more somber title is more appropriate. Give your head a shake!!! Tom may be down and out, but the Patriots chances to win are still solid, just like yours. That’s right, just because of one injury it doesn’t mean that you’re down and out. First of all, the Patriots still have one of the best teams in the league, and now they’ll just have to do it with Matt instead of Tom. Trading the best quarterback in the league for a career back-up (yes, even in college Matt was a back-up) isn’t the best deal in the world, but there’s ways to win football games just like there’s ways for you to win at fantasy. Here are some guys that will manage as the season moves forward. Chad Pennington, Matt Ryan, JaMarcus Russell, Jason Campbell, and Tarvaris Jackson (that’s right, they’ll all be decent). Some guys that could be great: Jake Delhomme and Matt Cassel. Matt still has two great receivers and an offense that is genius in what they do. Jake will get Steve Smith back and be even better than he was in Week 1. Don’t lose your marbles because you spent a 1st round pick on a guy that played half a quarter – that dream is dead, move forward, make it work and it will be just that much more refreshing.

  2. Eddie Royal is a Best!: No receiver looked quicker this weekend than Eddie Royal did. Not only did he look awesome, but he should have had another touchdown, but he lined up a foot too far back and some ref decided to be a stickler. So what. This kid is no one-day wonder, and he will do good things even as Brandon Marshall comes back. He’s a tireless worker and has the respect of everyone that means anything on that Bronco team. Don’t pass up the chance to get him if he’s still available.

  3. Chris Johnson: Told you. I’ve been saying it for a long time, and I figure now is the time where everyone believes me. Honestly, I’m not sure if he’ll do as well with Kerry Collins in, because now defenses don’t have to worry about Vince running, but he should still get more carries than LenDale White. Don’t trade the world for him, but if you can pick him up, or give some sad Brady owner a decent new starting quarterback to get him, I’d jump on it.

  4. And the Bush Growith: I missed on this prediction – that’s for sure. The Bucs had always held Bush to very little, but on Sunday Reggie showed us a little something. Hopefully that big performance and game winning touchdown gives the kid a little more confidence. I don’t know how a guy that gets to follow that Kim girl’s butt around can lack so much confidence, but he has rarely looked like a confident back. I’m not sure if this is a thing to come, but prior to the pre-season I was really high on Bush. I thought he’d score more touchdowns this season than any other year, and the way he was utilized on Sunday, I might have to go back to that prediction. Go Reggie! Go Kim!

  5. Mike Tuner for President: In just about every single draft I had I picked this guy. There were a lot of reasons for that, but 220 yards and 2 touchdowns on 20 touches wasn’t one of them. That’s right, even my lofty expectations weren’t that high. And now, now that I’ve seen what Turner can do in that new offensive scheme in Atlanta, I think he has a chance in 2008 to take the presidency. You won’t be able to get him – probably, but if you Steven Jackson owners know what’s good for you, you’ll try to trick an unsuspecting Turner owner into a great “value” trade. You Turner owners should ignore that stupid term and worse idea – but not everyone reads this article (unfortunately) so do what you can do.

  6. Seattle’s Raining Receivers: They are coming down like cats and dogs. First Branch at the end of last season. Then Engram. Now Burleson. Nate had a lot of upside coming in, and many fantasy owners, such as myself, were expecting big things from the talented wideout. So sad, so sorry, so long for that idea. Nate is out for the year. But this is the time to go get Deion Branch and maybe Engram too. You can probably stash them on your IR, if your league has one, and even then, it’s likely that both receivers have more value than some #5 and #6 receivers you have right now. They might play as early as Week 3, and probably by the Hawks 4th game of the season. Do work early and be happy later.

  7. Dallas Does Debbie – err, Cleveland: Okay, feel free to look back at my Five for Friday article to properly appreciate this prediction. The Cowboys looked brilliant where the Browns looked like, well, like everyone expected the Browns to be last season before they turned everything around. You know what, here’s a quote from my article on Friday, “The Cowboys are going to do what the Colts did to the Saints to start the ‘07 season, and many a people are going to be seen ripping out their hair because they put all their chips in the Brown doo-doo. Nobody likes brown doo-doo. But when this does happen, feel free to take advantage of those hair-rippers. Unlike you, most fantasy fans erupt prematurely like the apple pie kid. Week 1 and 2 are times where calm people build season-long dynasties.” There – now if you didn’t read that, then at least you get the gist of what’s important now (also known as W.I.N).

  8. Duddly Do Rights: The Eagles did everything right against the Rams. Defensively, but especially offensively, there was no team more wide open and efficient in what they did than Philly. The Eagles are known for their ability to lay an egg or two, from time to time, but they sure kicked the season off with a full-blown shellacking. Atlanta looked glorious against the Lions. It wasn’t only Mike Turner – it was everyone in Atlanta’s offense. Matt Ryan looks like the read deal, one of the best quarterback prospects in a while, Jerious Norwood looked good too, and so did that receiving corps. In the chances they got, this team flourished all over. You have to love that for a Falcons group that has gone through some turmoil in the recent past. Denver did work, too. Their best receiver might not have been the guy that had to sit this game out after all. Okay, too fast? Maybe. But Eddie Royal is the sure-thing #2 for a reason. He’ll be special when his career is over. And Jay Cutler is going to be a great one. Not a good one. Not a pro-bowler. He’s going to be an MVP type hall-of-famer by the time his career is over. Denver did a lot of good, and a lot of it was because of Jay.

  9. Duddly Do Wrongs: Cincinnati – to start with, everything. Carson looked bad, but the routes were shoddy, the defense was horrendous, and the offensive line had me thinking Carson was going to join Tom in an “out for the year” scenario. Marvin Lewis better get back to the drawing board before Bengals’ brass send it out in a box. Seattle – where or where have you gone? I know the receiving corps is depleted, but ask Donovan McNabb, is that any reason to leave your game in Seattle? The Hawks need to run the ball more and ask an injured Matt Hasselbeck to do less. The load rests on Julius Jones’ shoulders next week – I think he’ll step up. Houston – defensively, you are worrying me. You have solid linebackers, two great defensive linemen, and while that doesn’t mean your secondary is great, it does mean you shouldn’t give up 130+ yards to Willie Parker and crew. Show me something next week, but more importantly, don’t leave your game at home when you play on the road – that garbage is embarrassing. Still, Schaub is going to be good, and Andre Johnson will light up the airways with him.

  10. Trick Love the Kids: Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Ray Rice – There are other kids I like as well, but these three guys should run wild next week in their respective match-ups. Chris will torment a Bengals team that can’t tackle a slow 7th grader. Matt Forte will give the Panthers defense more yards than LT did last week, And Ray Rice will have more yards on less carries against the Texans. There it is, Ten for Tuesday. See you tomorrow!