Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos NFL Betting Preview

This is a scary match-up for Denver, I’m telling you. Sure, Denver is in a must win situation against a pretty bad Chiefs team, and they are playing in Denver to boot, but with everything happening the way it has happened this week in Denver, and with the Chiefs coming in running the ball well, this game could be a grinder. And a grinder against a bottom 5 team to get into the playoffs is never a good thing.

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I know the Broncos can beat up on the Chiefs, they’ve done so against lower level competition a few times already this year, but can they do it with all the crap flying around this team right now? The benching of your best player because he’ supposedly over-doing his hamstring injury? They need to win and get in, and all the Chiefs have to do is come and make it a game? This game has upset written all over it.

You might say that the Chiefs, like the Rams, have nothing to play for except hurting themselves come draft time – but they aren’t going for the top pick, and they aren’t committed to any one position come draft time, plus a win for this first year coach over a team fighting for the playoffs would be huge for the team’s confidence going forward – that, my friends, is something to play for. And I like all those points, seems like too many to me!

Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ Denver Broncos

Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos: NFL Week 15 Pick

Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos NFL Week 15 Pick: I don’t know what it is about this bet that makes me feel so good, maybe the fact that Denver plugs bad teams, or maybe the idea that the Oakland Raiders will be starting a practice squad player that failed to make it with all the other teams that gave him a chance, or maybe the fact that Al Davis is using up all the team energy to power the breathing unit that keeps oxygen entering his life system. Shoot, I know a lot about this game has me liking the Broncos at -12.5 – I’d be happier at -10, because it’s not like this offensive unit is stellar in Denver, but I’ll do with 12.5.

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The “practice squad player” isn’t a running back or a lineman or a kicker, the guy is going to get the nod at quarterback for the black and silver. And who is going to be second string? That’s still a toss up between J.P. Losman (signed six minutes ago) and JaMarcus Russell (infinitely one of the biggest number one busts of all time) or Al Davis himself. This is beginning to become a bad joke with so many punchlines that my eyes are swelling shut – either from the punches or the tears, or both.

Sure, the Raiders have surprised some teams, especially lately, and they have a decent rushing attack – but you can’t argue for one minute that this group of guys really stands a chances with the “front office people” (Al Davis and Al Davis) running the show. I feel terribly for Richard Seymour. That’s all. Denver, do it.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-12.5):

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts Week 14 Picks

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Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts Week 14 Picks: 55% of the betting public likes the Colts, and I’ll admit, Peyton and company make it tough to bet against the horsies with their 12-0 record going right along with their 8-3-1 ATS mark for the season. But the Colts are 2-3-1 ATS at home, and they’ve lost each of their last two when favored by more than 6 points. They’ve won their last 5 games by a total of 28 points, that’s an average of just over 5 points per game. 4 of those wins were by 4 points or less. Last week the Colts beat the Titans by 10 points, but Tennessee went for it on 4th down twice when inside the Colts’ red zone. They’ve been winning the close ones.

Denver became a bettor’s dream after the first few games of the season, surprising everyone and taking a long time for the books to realize (or credit them) for being real. The Broncos started 6-0 including wins over Cincinnati (miracle last second touchdown), Dallas, New England, and San Diego. But then they hit the wall and lost 4 in a row by a combined beating of 37-117. And just like that, they were the Broncos once again, no credit, no respect. Just how I like them. A 20-point piecing of the Giants on Thanksgiving and a 44-13 beatdown over the Chiefs in Kansas City, and the Broncos are still more than a touchdown dog at 8-4.

Now that’s my kind of bet. The Broncos have been at their best when given no chance to win, and there are plenty of people that expect the Colts to walk into Sunday’s game and come out with a 13-0 record just for showing up. I don’t think so. I think the Broncos match-up very well with Indianapolis, and a chance of an upset is great. That’s why I like Denver as a runaway dog.

Denver Broncos (+7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

NFL Free Football Picks Review: Week 13 2009

Well, you can’t win them all. Week “unlucky” 13 was my first losing week in my free NFL football picks in a long time, seriously, look at the records, I’ve been tallying up winning weeks like it was my job, (and it kind of is), but Week 13 broke in and slapped me in the face. A lot of games started out well and looked good going down the stretch, but finishes weren’t good to me and a Monday Night egg laid by the Ravens was the last straw needed to break my winning back. Here’s how the crumbs tumbled….

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New York Jets (-1) @ Buffalo BillsĀ (Winner) The Bills couldn’t do anything offensively as Darrelle Revis absolutely shut down Terrell Owens. The rest of the Bills offense didn’t fare much better as they could only muster 13 measly points. The Jets did just enough to keep themselves in the win-column, winning by 6.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (Winner) The Eagles just flat out dominated the Falcons. From start to finish, the whole idea of Mark Redman being a very good back-up option, and maybe even a better down-field thrower than Matt Ryan was basically put to rest. The Eagles moved the ball easily, and Mike Vick even got in the end-zone twice against his former team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-6) (Winner) The Panthers didn’t do much offensively, at least not after the first drive, but the way their defense was picking off Josh Freeman’s passes, they didn’t need to put up a gaggle of points. 16-6 was the final score, as Jonathan Stewart put in work running the ball for Carolina.

St. Louis Rams (+10) @ Chicago Bears (Winner) The Bears could only put up 17 against an improving Rams defense, and Steven Jackson rushed for just enough yardage to keep the Rams close. St. Louis didn’t get into the end-zone, but 3 field goals were good enough to cover.

Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals (-12.5) (Loss) The Bengals were up 23-7 in the 4th quarter before they magically blew my cover and got me beat up by a mob of angry gamblers. The Lions got a late touchdown and covered up just like that. Hate.

Tennessee Titans (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts (Loss) The Titans were close all day, they just couldn’t get the ball in the end-zone. No late game heroics from Vince today, oh no, it was Peyton stealing the show early, and the Colts defense bending and bending and bending with very little breakage all day long. The Colts are good. I still think I’d take the Titans +7 if they played one more time.

Houston Texans (+1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Loss) The Texans didn’t have it in them. Jacksonville’s secondary played much better than I imagined, and believe it or not, I think the Texans desperately missed Steve Slaton. Whether they’d like to admit it or not, since they’ve benched Slaton (though this week it was his health that kept him out), the Texans have really struggled to get wins. Weird.

Denver Broncos (-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (Winner) This game was an easy one. And I always love an easy one. The Broncos dominate bad teams, they’ve done so often this year, and the Chiefs definitely qualify, even at home in Chief-town.

Oakland Raiders (+11.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Winner) The Raiders just flat out beat the Steelers, and Big Ben was in the game and everything. This really was fantastic, I can’t believe what the Raiders have done to good teams this year. The Steelers are falling hard, and all but out of the playoff race going into the final four weeks of the season.The Raiders, well, they’ve only beaten the Bengals, Steelers, and Eagles this year. Amazing.

New Orleans Saints (-8.5) @ Washington Redskins (Loss) The Saints should have lost this game, but Shaun Suisham wanted to see an undefeated season, so he missed a 2 yard field goal that would have put the Skins up 10. Sure enough, Drew Brees obliged and found Meachem to tie it up. To overtime we went, and a tough fumble call brought the Saints into field goal range – and they got the win. They found a way to win while the Redskins found a way to lose – weird, 12-0 and 3-9…

New England Patriots (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins (Loss) Oh New England, yet another game that started so well, had me thinking “of course this was going to happen, you’re so smart, Lucky” – third person business and all – they the Patriots poo the bed and end up losing. I don’t know what’s more amazing, the Patriots losing all these games while being ahead in the 4th quarter, or Baxter eating an entire cheese log…

San Diego Chargers (-12) @ Cleveland Browns (Loss) The Chargers were killing the Browns, slowly but surely getting closer and closer to a cover. Ah, but then the “slow down game” started happening, and all of a sudden, the Browns score sixteen 4th quarter points behind James Harrison’s quick feet (dude should have been playing more a long time ago). The Chargers did nothing, but they did win – which of course, isn’t good enough for me. Up 27-7 going in, me counting my winnings, it’s never a good thing to do – that fat lady does some funny stuff before she sings.

Dallas Cowboys (+1) @ New York Giants (Loss) I don’t know what it was, but the Giants found some highlight reel plays to get late scores. Brandon Jacobs took a pass for 70+ yards and Dominik Hixon returned a punt for a TD. Dallas couldn’t run the ball at all. Those big plays put the Giants ahead for good, and despite a big day from Tony Romo, the Cowboys allowed the Giants to get back in the race, and now see themselves tied with Philadelphia at the top of the NFC East.

San Francisco 49ers (+1) @ Seattle Seahawks (Loss) Oh, I don’t know what to think about San Francisco. Since they finally signed Michael Crabtree, they’ve really struggled. I think they are trying to force the ball in the air too much. They should remember back to when they were 3-1 and running the ball 50% of the time – that might help them moving forward. This team has no identity right now, and despite force feeding the ball to Julius Jones relatively ineffectively, the Seahawks walk away with a win anyway. It was a close one, came down to Olindo Mare’s last second field goal. But the loss hurt.

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) (Winner) The Cardinals brought it right to the Vikings. They passed the ball with a lot of success, kept that intense Vikings pass rush off of Kurt Warner, and the defense forced Brett Favre into one of those Favre-like-days that hadn’t shown up over the course of the season thus far. He probably should have had 5 interceptions, but 2 was enough for the Cardinals, they easily handled the Vikings.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Green Bay Packers (Loss) I needed a Monday Night cover from the underdog Ravens, and I felt pretty confident. Unfortunately for me, Flacco was way off, he wasn’t throwing his normal lasers, and Ray Rice couldn’t find any running room against the Packers’ rush defense that has really improved from the first few weeks of the season. Green Bay looked very good while Baltimore looked old and injury ridden. This game was tough to watch, but the Packers definitely outplayed the Ravens and I finished a couple games under .500 for the first week in a long time…

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Free Pick

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Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Free Pick: The Broncos have really beaten up on bad teams this year. Because of their recent four game slide, I think people (including sharp bettors) really discount what they’ve done this year. Don’t forget, leave the short memory in the ditch where it belongs, this team is still 7-4, and only one of those losses was a bad one (Washington). And the Skins, believe it or not, have a pretty damn good defense. Now I like the Broncos best when nobody expects them to win, and while that’s not the case here, I like them second best when they play a bad team.

Denver absolutely dominated the Browns earlier in the year in Denver when Cleveland absolutely couldn’t do anything. They also gave it to Oakland like the Raiders were a JV team, and certainly, Oakland has made it tough to argue with that idea more than a few times this year. They were in a slump, definitely, but they got out last week with a win over a falling Giants team, and I think they dominate this game – even in Kansas City.

The thing about KC is the Chiefs have been a no-chance home team before and finsihed on top. There’s something about Kansas City, it’s one heck of a home field advantage, and it’s not like the Chiefs are a completely useless team like some of the other tomato cans. I just happen to think the Broncos are a lot more like the team they played like earlier in the year, a lot less like the team they were during their losing streak. That’s worth a 4 point favorite bet right there.

Denver Broncos (-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs

New York Giants vs Denver Broncos Pick & Preview

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New York Giants @ Denver Broncos (+7) Pick & Preview: The Giants have lost my trust, and while the Broncos have played like piss, and lost four straight headed into this game with New York – I actually think they are back to being the “prove we’re better than you think we are” team they started out the season as. After starting the season with some big wins and 6-0, face it, the Broncos started getting a lot of love. Orton was celebrated, Marshall was happy, and Josh McDaniels was the next best football mind stemming from the Bill Belichick tree. Funny what four weeks can do to an NFL franchise.

But like I said, this is where the Broncos are most comfortable. They are underdogs by a touchdown at home this week – and the public loves the visitor. I know the Broncos will use that as motivation this week, and I think that makes them a nice cover value here.

Plus, the Giants, it’s not like they’ve played solid ball of late either. After getting blasted by New Orleans and Philadelphia (also losing to Arizona and San Diego), the Giants just barely squeaked out a cover the Atlanta Falcons in overtime. It looked like they were scared to death, and playing too reserved down the stretch. That allowed the Falcons to get right back in it, in turn I lost some trust in a very talented Giants team.

Seven is too many.

San Diego Chargers vs Denver Broncos Point Spread Pick

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San Diego Chargers (-4) @ Denver Broncos Pooint Spread Pick: Sorry for the late post. This game was unavailable all week long, showing up on Saturday at one sportsbook. It’s still the only sports book where the game is available, and the line is 4.

The value is with the Broncos – I know that because they have a good defense, better than the Chargers have, and they are at home and getting 4 points – that’s one more than a field goal and that can make all the difference. The Broncos are 3-1 at home (their only loss coming to the Pittsburgh Steelers) and they’ve beaten New England and Dallas at home in Denver. It’s not like they’ve only played powder-puffs. But with all that being said and realized I’m not taking the Broncos, oh no.

First of all, when two teams are close to or equal, I almost always like the team that lost the first game to pull the second game out. It’s tough to beat a good team twice in a row. But that’s not it, last time these two teams played, I actually think San Diego played a better game than Denver. Offensively and defensively (key areas if I don’t say so myself) I think the Chargers were more impressive. Special teams (and namely Eddie Royal) won that game for the Broncos with two return touchdowns. I don’t buy that happening again this time around.

Not that history means much, but the Chargers have owned this series, especially when it matters most. San Diego has won 5 of the last 7, including last season when a playoff spot was on the line. In that game, the Chargers ran Denver (and Coach Mike Shannahan) right out of the building, something to the tune of 52-21… You bet.

If you take Kyle Orton out and put Chris Simms in, you can see where I’m coming from. I hate giving the Broncos and their solid defense 4 points at home, but I’m going to have to do it.

Denver Broncos vs Washington Redskins Free Pick & Preview

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Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins Free Pick & Preview: I picked the spread in this game before the line opened at any books, and while it is down to 3 at most books right now, I have to stand by my pick at -4.5 – I’m not too worried about it, it would be amazing if that one point difference, especially between those two numbers, makes much of a difference in this game. I still don’t see what or why this spread is as small as it is. Obviously some people a lot sharper than me like the Redskins in this one, because it’s not the public, 73% of the public like what they see in the Broncos. That’s another scary number.

But the Broncos have shelled bad teams this year. I’m not sure Washington’s defense is anywhere near as bad as Cleveland, and I don’t think the Redskins are as bad as the Raiders, but Denver made both of those teams look silly. Sure, the Broncos have been blasted (on the score board) two games in a row, but Baltimore and Pittsburgh are no joke, it’s not like they came out and lost to Tampa Bay or anything.

This Broncos team may be struggling running the ball, but the last two weeks they’ve faced arguably two of the better run defenses in the league. They’ll get back on track against the Redskins. I truly believe that. Washington has actually played very well defensively this year, but that offense doesn’t have the firepower to score many points, and I think Josh McDaniels and the Broncos will put up some points in D.C.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos Football Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (+3): Monday Night football must have known something that most of us did not. After all the off-season turmoil in Denver, to think that a Steelers/Broncos game would be a good match-up in Week 9 of the NFL season seemed crazy when the MNF schedule came out. Yet here we are, and Pittsburgh isn’t the team with the best record – that belongs to 6-1 Denver. Not only has Denver done well straight up, but they’re 6-1 ATS this season as well. And being an underdog isn’t a new thing for the Broncos, so far this season they’ve been favored just twice, against Cleveland and Oakland.

Denver is coming off a tough loss to the Ravens last week, getting pretty much blown out in the second half after going into halftime down 6-0. The Steelers are coming off a bye week right after a 4 game winning streak, including a 10 point win over Minnesota in Pittsburgh. After going 1-2 to start the season, and looking very mediocre in the process, Pittsburgh has picked it up of late, making big plays on defense and continuing to throw the ball early and often.

Denver has beaten Pittsburgh 3 of the last 4 times these two have met. But that doesn’t mean much normally, and now that these two teams have relatively young coaches with different systems and players, that history means even less. Maybe last season’s 33-10 win over New England is a better judge of past accomplishments. It was Josh McDaniels’ offense that couldn’t do much against Pittsburgh’s defense.

But lets talk about this season. The Steelers are 2-5 ATS and have not been able to put the nail in the coffin despite being up early in most games. They have struggled to close, and thus haven’t really met expectations in the margin of victory. Denver has played tough against everyone, their secondary is very good, and they bring lots of pressure to opposing passers. The Steelers might find it tough to block the Broncos pass rush, and since Big Ben holds the ball a little longer than most, that could make for some big plays for the Broncos defense. Denver shuts down opposing rushing attacks, so the weight of the world will go on Ben’s passing skills. That’s a recipe for failing to cover. So I’ll take the Broncos.

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens Free NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens Free NFL Pick: The Broncos are 6-0, undefeated, just like the Colts and Saints – yet they’ve only been favored twice all season long. They were favored at home against the Cleveland Browns (by 3) and in Oakland against those always powerful Raiders (by 1). 6 games down, 6 wins in the bag, and just two times they’ve been favored to do so, and those were against a couple of the worst teams in football – amazing. And here they are again, going up against a physical Ravens team, be them 3-3, and Denver is once again a Dog. Does the fairytale have to stop? I’m not so sure, but this game should be one hell of a rough and tumble affair. But getting just a hair more than a field goal, I have to like that in a game that almost promises to be tight. Combined, these two teams are a bettor’s dream, 10-2 ATS on the season. Baltimore has played in 5 close games so far this season. Their only blowout, the Browns. Even Kansas City hung tough well into the 4th. 3 of Denver’s 6 wins have come by a touchdown or less. It’s just in their blood, they play tough, they limit mistakes, they tackle well, they cut down on the big play. It’s Broncos or nothing here, that’s where my value-meter stands.