Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos NFL Betting Preview

This is a scary match-up for Denver, I’m telling you. Sure, Denver is in a must win situation against a pretty bad Chiefs team, and they are playing in Denver to boot, but with everything happening the way it has happened this week in Denver, and with the Chiefs coming in running the ball well, this game could be a grinder. And a grinder against a bottom 5 team to get into the playoffs is never a good thing.

no banners

I know the Broncos can beat up on the Chiefs, they’ve done so against lower level competition a few times already this year, but can they do it with all the crap flying around this team right now? The benching of your best player because he’ supposedly over-doing his hamstring injury? They need to win and get in, and all the Chiefs have to do is come and make it a game? This game has upset written all over it.

You might say that the Chiefs, like the Rams, have nothing to play for except hurting themselves come draft time – but they aren’t going for the top pick, and they aren’t committed to any one position come draft time, plus a win for this first year coach over a team fighting for the playoffs would be huge for the team’s confidence going forward – that, my friends, is something to play for. And I like all those points, seems like too many to me!

Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ Denver Broncos

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 16 2009 Predictions

You know what they say, if you’re going to do something you might as well do it right. Okay, maybe I made that up, or maybe they say something similar to that, but it works for Week 16 as I ended up winning twice as many as I lost, and came away with yet another winning week. Single roll freaking Yahtzee! Here’s how my 10-5-1 Week 16 went down…

no banners

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Tennessee Titans (WINNER)  The Chargers made quick work of the Titans, and Tennessee couldn’t get that 2nd win over an above .500 team. Chris Johnson still did work though, and you can bet I’ll be all over the Titans against the Hawks next week.

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons (Loss) The Bills couldn’t compete. If this team doesn’t have a new coaching staff within a week of the regular season ending, I’ll be stunned. The Falcons came out doing dirty work from the get go, getting people involved early, and dominating the Bills throughout.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals (WINNER) You can count this game as a lesson learned, I fully expected the Chiefs to lose, but have seen the Bengals barely win too many games this season. Put another “close win” notch on their resume, a late TD to Ochocinco gave the Bengals a touchdown win.

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5) (WINNER) The Browns ran the ball, and while their best back (Harrison has been their best back for the last three years) didn’t have his best yard per carry day, he did control the game rushing more than 35 times and getting close to 150 yards on the day. As I said, the Browns didn’t need much QB help after all.

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (-13.5) (WINNER)This game was over by the time Ryan Grant got his first carry. The big back ran downhill and the Hawks didn’t seem to fond of catching him. Two touchdowns, and some easy passes from Rodgers, an interception filled day from Hasselcrack – it was an easy win indeed.

Houston Texans (+3) @ Miami Dolphins (WINNER) As I said, the Texans are the better team, and here they are going for an outside shot at the playoffs. Houston’s defense played very well, and that’s because they are good. Weird. Who knew? Me.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (-7) (Loss) The mighty Giants are a mess, and out of the playoffs, what a shame, no post-season looks of disgust from Eli’s frowny little face… The Panthers straight crushed the Giants, and the win apparently kept John Fox his job – great – another year of falling behind by a score early and completely abandoning the run – ugh.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) @ New England Patriots (Loss)The Patriots seem to have it figured out, or maybe they just played a Jacksonville team that always seems to put up soaked baby diapers when it matters most. Coaching… Anyway, New England tossed touchdown after touchdown early, giving the slow moving Jags offense no chance for success.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15) @ New Orleans Saints (WINNER) The Bucs won outright, and they did it in pretty physically dominant fashion. Tampa controlled the line of scrimmage, and now the Saints are flailing to the finish.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PUSH) As it was, a tough game to call indeed. It ended up in a push as the Steelers hit a field goal to win it. Baltimore had plenty of chances, that’s for sure, but numerous mistakes haunted them and leave them needing a win to see the playoffs in the final week. I got the push, but I hate pushes.

Denver Broncos (+7) @ Philadelphia Eagles (WINNER) The Broncos fought hard and could have easily come out of Philly with a win, but Donovan McNabb through a missile to Jeremy Maclin that the rookie caught just before falling out of bounds, that’s when the game was over as Philly had to just run out the clock and kick a short field goal.

St. Louis Rams (+15.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (Loss) The heart and soul of the Rams offense, one of the best players in football, Steven Jackson, was a late scratch, and I have to believe, that if he was healthy, this would have been a cover. But what can a guy do? Lose with class I guess..

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-11) (WINNER) Frank Gore was the best player on the field on Sunday, and the 49ers finally got back to realizing that as the compact running back marched for 150 yards from scrimmage, got 28 carries, and pounded the Lions all day.

New York Jets (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts (WINNER) Well, the better team was Indy, but as I said, that wouldn’t matter when you teamed up the Colts sitting their guys before the game was over and the Jets needing a win to see the playoffs – those two things got New York the game, and me a nice win. “Easy peazy japenesey.”

Dallas Cowboys (-4) @ Washington Redskins (WINNER) It’s pretty clear I have the Redskins pretty well pegged, and those weeks of playing solid football look to be over.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Chicago Bears (Loss) Well, what can a guy do? The Vikings were beat up by the Bears, and though the final score shows an overtime loss, it looked worse than that. Minnesota had some huge plays just to get back in it, and one has to wonder if the Vikings are who we thought they were, or a greater version of the Panthers?

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals NFL Week 16 Picks

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals NFL Week 16 Picks: I wrote in my Just Picks Newsletter than “I’d Feel like a moron if I didn’t pick the Chiefs in Cincinnati.” And that’s almost exclusively because the Bengals have played close with just about everyone. There is no doubt in my mind that Cincinnati could and probably should beat the Chiefs by 21 points or more, but the Bengals just haven’t played football like that. They are in it to win games, and if the best way to do that is run the ball a ton and get the game over as fast as possible, that’s exactly what they are going to do. I should know, I’ve been picking the Bengals to cover big spreads, and they’ve been killing me because of it.

no banners

The Bengals are 9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS, but 0-4 ATS when favored by 6 points or more so far this season. They’ve beaten just one single team by double digits this season, the Chicago Bears in a rare offensively explosion game for the Bengals. One. In 9 wins, they’ve had one double digit victory – that’s almost crazy speak. But like I said, they are in it to win it and how pretty the score looks at games’ end is of no consequence to the Bengals.

The Chiefs are bad, and even worse on the road, and they only close game they’ve played over the last 4 weeks is their 34-41 loss to Cleveland at home last week, but listen, I’m not picking the Chiefs because of the Chiefs, I’m taking them because of the Bengals, the best ugly winner in football.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs: NFL Week 15 Picks

Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs: NFL Week 15 Picks: Believe it or not, I think the Browns have some positive vibes going through the organization right now. There’s a pretty good chance a proven winner is going to take over the football operations of a Cleveland team that hasn’t seen the playoffs since the Browns turned into the Ravens.But this team has been pretty competitive over the last 4 games, even going as far as beating the Steelers last week on Thursday Night Football. They’ve had three extra days to prepare for one of the bottom dwellers in football. I think they have an amazing chance to win 2 games in a row, something I didn’t think I’d be saying this season. They’ve already covered 4 straight games, and they’ve scored more points over the last 4 games than the scored the first 8 games of the season combined. Like it or not, the Browns are hot – for Browns anyway.

no banners

The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been playing their worst football of the year. After being competitive for the early stretch, and going as far as winning 2 straight and covering three straight, the Chiefs have been outscored 103-37 over the last 3 games. Kansas City is just 1-5 at home this season, one of their worst home performances that I can remember. While their running game has being going well, Matt Cassel has been a turnover machine, and his inability to move the ball down field has hurt the Chiefs all year long.

I like the Browns to keep doing what they’ve been doing, playing well defensively and getting enough from Brady Quinn and their young receivers.

Cleveland Browns (+2) @ Kansas City Chiefs:

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Week 14 Free Pick

no banners

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Week 14 Free Pick: The Buffalo Bills aren’t a good football team, I’m not trying to twist it that way at all, and playing at Kansas City is never an easy task (despite what Denver made it look like last week), but the Bills are a much better team than the Chiefs. Kansas City, defensively, can’t seem to stop anyone, and while the Bills have bad defensive numbers, they’ve done alright this season when they are allowed to gang up on one aspect of an opposing offense – I’m not saying they can give it all to the run or pass in KC, but they can put just about everyone of their guys within 12 yards of the line of scrimmage, because that’s where the Chiefs have been doing their dirty work – and offensively, the Chiefs are pretty grimy.

The Bills are 4-8 this season, and while it’s almost impossible to find a good 4-8 team, the Bills are about as close as you can get. They’ve been in almost every single game they’ve played going into the 4th quarter. From that point forward, sure, they’ve struggled, but at 4-8 they average 5 points less than they give up on the season. Putting that into perspective, the Chiefs give up 11 more points per game than they score. I’m not going into any details, but if you look at box scores from the Bills games this season, you’ll often see a 3 point game going into the 4th – they have played decent – and they’ve played even better lately.

The Bills have played a very tough schedule, and the only teams with losing records that they’ve lost to are the Titans (and they’ve been pretty good lately), the Texans (who can play with anyone), and the Browns (who suck, but just beat the tumbling Steelers). They generally beat bad teams, they’ve done so 3 times this year, and I think they do it again in KC.

Buffalo Bills (+1) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Free Pick

no banners

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Free Pick: The Broncos have really beaten up on bad teams this year. Because of their recent four game slide, I think people (including sharp bettors) really discount what they’ve done this year. Don’t forget, leave the short memory in the ditch where it belongs, this team is still 7-4, and only one of those losses was a bad one (Washington). And the Skins, believe it or not, have a pretty damn good defense. Now I like the Broncos best when nobody expects them to win, and while that’s not the case here, I like them second best when they play a bad team.

Denver absolutely dominated the Browns earlier in the year in Denver when Cleveland absolutely couldn’t do anything. They also gave it to Oakland like the Raiders were a JV team, and certainly, Oakland has made it tough to argue with that idea more than a few times this year. They were in a slump, definitely, but they got out last week with a win over a falling Giants team, and I think they dominate this game – even in Kansas City.

The thing about KC is the Chiefs have been a no-chance home team before and finsihed on top. There’s something about Kansas City, it’s one heck of a home field advantage, and it’s not like the Chiefs are a completely useless team like some of the other tomato cans. I just happen to think the Broncos are a lot more like the team they played like earlier in the year, a lot less like the team they were during their losing streak. That’s worth a 4 point favorite bet right there.

Denver Broncos (-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Papas Picks: Week 12 NFL Underdogs, Texans, Chiefs, Cardinals

I had a solid little go-around last week, finishing 4-1 with a couple big underdog wins to show for it. I always like to put a small straight-up wager on my dogs, and that worked like a charm last week as the Chiefs and Titans both gave me some nice + money, but I should have won 3, if only the Redskins could have slammed the door shut on the pathetic Cowboys. But finishing isn’t in the cards for that team, I should have known. You know what’s nutso, I pick only dogs, Arse picks only favorites, and Lucky picks whatever he wants, and we all won in Week 11 – then again, I had the best win-percentage. Ha, old people rule! Here’s last week’s review and this week’s top dogs – I’ve got 4 good one’s this week!

no banners

Week 11 Review:

Titans (+4.5) was an outright winner @ Houston.
St. Louis (+10) was a cover-winner against Arizona.
Kansas City (+11.5) just won outright against the might Steelers. Awesome.
Washington (+11) covered easily in a 1 point loss @ Dallas.
Tampa Bay (+11.5) was a sure thing loss against New Orleans, Lucky was right.

Week 12 Free Picks:

Houston Texans (+3.5) @ home vs. Indianapolis Colts: The Texans are better than many give them credit for, and I think Schaub ends up having the much better day through the air. I like Houston to end the Colts winning streak, but like them even more with a little more than a field goal.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14.5) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have been hot, but in their own little way, so have the Chiefs – hot enough to play with a Chargers team that isn’t great defensively in any one area. 14.5 points, I almost always like that. The Chargers aren’t any kind of two touchdown favorite in my old ass opinion.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Tennessee: I like the Titans with Vince, sure, but every team meets their match, and I just happen to think the Cardinals are a terrible match-up for Vince and the Titans. They stop the run really well and pass with precision and big-play ability. Sounds like a dog win to me!

New England Patriots (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: What a Monday Night Football Game – I can’t wait. I just like the Patriots and points in about every single occasion I can muster. Hope that clears it up. Every single situation ever. You bet! I will!

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Diego Chargers Point Spread Pick

no banners

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ San Diego Chargers Point Spread: Yet another double digit spread. And there’s a lot of them this week. There were already two on Thanks Giving (both favorites won and covered), and there are 6 altogether in Week 12 – that’s crazy business – and there’s another game at 9.5 (that you can get at 10 at a pretty popular sports book right now – the Skins getting 10 at Philly). Nuts. I like the underdog in 5 of the 6 double digit games, and I like the Skins too. So if the favorites make out like they did on Thanks Giving, I will be in trouble this week. I just think the spreads are too high. I know the year started out with favorites slapping dogs around like they peed on the carpet, but this is getting out of hand.

The Chargers have played well, and won lots of a games lately, shoot they’ve won 5 straight coming in, and covered each of their last 3, going as far as destroying the Denver Broncos in Denver 32-3. But they’ve still only won 2 games by more than 14 points this season. But yes, one of them was Kansas City in KC to start this recent winning streak they are still riding. But I think KC makes this one a lot tougher.

Since losing to the Chargers on October 25th, the Chiefs have won two of their last 3, and covered all three. They lost to the Jaguars by a field goal, then beat the Raiders and upset the Steelers last week as well. They’re playing their best football of the year. They’ve also played a lot of close games this year, and have only lost 2 games by more than 14 points.

They are the pick here, the spread is inflated!

Papas Picks: Week 11 NFL Underdogs! Jets, Raiders, Rams

I’m buying what the dogs are selling. That’s right, I believe last week’s winners weren’t a fluke. I’m going back to them and the big points they are getting!

no banners

Tennessee Titans (+4.5) @ Houston Texans: Vince is back baby! Okay, maybe Chris Johnson is the guy flourishing, but the Titans continue to win when Vince is at the helm, undefeated since his return to the top spot, and I think that continues. They were good last year, they’ve been good lately! I’m buying in for +4.5! You bet!

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (+10): Yeah, I know, the Rams didn’t win last week you say, well they did in my book, and every other sports book. As you well know, the winners don’t always win in this game. The Rams have been awesome on the ground, running on everyone lately – that has to continue for them to have a chance, but the Cardinals are known to throw up a stinker form time to time – and Steven Jackson can keep the Rams close.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5): What do all the Saints recent struggles have in common? Well, they’ve won them all, but they’ve lost ATS or struggled in games Sedrick Ellis has missed. He’s out again, and with no dominant run stuffer to clog the middle, the Saints D just ins’t the same. Plus, Tampa has played well of late, giving many a team hell. The rookie QB, Josh Freeman, has been plenty good to cover them spreads.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+11.5): I can’t believe I’m getting 11.5 for the Chiefs in KC. That’s awesome. The Steelers have blown two teams out this year, and the Chiefs (while only winning two of their last 5) have covered 4 games in their last 5 chances. The short passing game of the Chiefs should cut down on the Steelers explosive blitzes, I think the Chiefs cover their 5th in 6 games.

Washington Redskins (+11) @ Dallas Cowboys: I like the Redskins here. What can I say, their defense is too good to get 11 from Dallas, and this is a big rivalry game. The Redskins may be 3-6, 2-6-1 ATS, but they’ve had some close games against good teams, and they won last week, beating up on the Broncos. I believe!

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs Week 11 Pick

no banners

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) @ Kansas City Chiefs Week 11 Pick: Dwayne Bowe’s 4 game suspension for drug use does not help the Chiefs chances of covering against the defending Super Bowl Champs. But that news became public after I made my Steelers pick, and the loss of a wide receiver would rarely send me one way or the other (unless that guy was Randy Moss or Andre Johnson, in other words an enormous portion of an offense’s threat – Bowe hasn’t been that this season).

First of all, this was a very tough one for me to decide. I know Kansas City has played well against tough run-defenses so far this year, starting off the season in a close game against the Ravens (eventually losing 38-24, but it was much closer than the score insists), losing by 11 to the New York Giants, and going to overtime before losing to the Cowboys. Todd Haley’s attack has been decent enough to stay close in most games. They’ve covered 4 of their last 5 games, beating the Redskins and Raiders.

And it’s not like Pittsburgh has come out and slaughtered lesser opponents. They only beat Cleveland by 13 points, Detroit by 8, Tennessee by 3, and they went and lost to the freaking Bears of all teams. THe only time they’ve blown somebody out was when they handled Denver two weeks ago on Monday Night Football, and even that game was 14-10 headed into the 4th quarter.

But Pittsburgh has it in them. They should be able to do anything they want offensively against the Chiefs, and I have a feeling Matt Cassel will be rushed into more than a couple bad throws this Sunday. Advantage Steelers, but just barely. Don’t risk it all on the Champs!